How the Iran War Became NATO’s Biggest Crisis
- Trump told Reuters he is "considering" withdrawing from NATO after European allies declined to send navies to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil supply.
- Spain closed its airspace to U.S. military planes, France blocked weapons flights to Israel, and Britain restricted base access to defensive missions only, prompting Trump to call the alliance a "paper tiger."
- With Brent crude hovering near $100 a barrel and U.S. gas prices above $4 a gallon, analysts warn the standoff could deteriorate further if NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte fails to change Trump's mind during a Washington visit next week
- .
President Donald Trump told Reuters on Wednesday that he is considering withdrawing the United States from the 76-year-old alliance after European allies declined to send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping.
"Wouldn't you if you were me?" he asked.
Earlier this week, in an interview with Britain's The Telegraph, he called NATO a "paper tiger" and said Russian President Vladimir Putin shared the assessment.
The spat has a straightforward trigger.
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which roughly 20% of the world's oil flows, has been effectively closed to commercial traffic since the war began. Oil prices have surged in response, with Brent briefly touching $120 a barrel before retreating. The EIA now forecasts Brent will average $79 per barrel for the full year, a sharp revision from its pre-war estimate of $58. U.S. gasoline prices have crossed $4 a gallon.
Trump wants allies to help reopen it, but they’ve largely said no.
Spain closed its airspace to U.S. military planes involved in the conflict. France refused to let planes carrying weapons to Israel pass over French territory. Britain allowed American bombers to use its bases, but only for defensive strikes, not offensive ones, prompting Trump to publicly lambast the country's "special relationship." Poland's defense minister said Warsaw has "no plans" to move its Patriot air-defense systems to the Middle East.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio made clear the administration is keeping a ledger. In an interview with Al Jazeera, he called the allies' response "very disappointing" and said the value of NATO, if it only works one direction, is something that will "have to be re-examined."
The energy dimension compounds all of it. Analysts at Macquarie put 40% odds on oil hitting $200 a barrel if the strait remains closed into Q2. Iran has begun laying naval mines in the waterway. The White House, for its part, has responded to the price surge by lifting sanctions on Russian oil, a move that European capitals see as yet another accommodation toward Moscow at their expense.
That dynamic surfaced sharply at a G7 foreign ministers meeting near Paris last week.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas asked Rubio when U.S. patience with Vladimir Putin over Ukraine would run out. Rubio, according to five people familiar with the exchange, responded with irritation. The meeting did not end warmly.
There are reasons to take Trump's NATO threats with some skepticism. He made similar noises during his first term and then praised European leaders effusively at NATO's annual summit in June 2025. A 2023 law co-sponsored by Rubio bars any president from withdrawing without congressional approval, though legal experts say Trump could test that in court. Analysts also note that, as commander-in-chief, he could simply choose not to defend a NATO member under attack, no formal exit required.
"The big question is, let's say there is an actual armed attack on NATO. Would there be a political decision to come to the aid of that ally?" former U.S. ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder told Axios. For countries that share a border with Russia, that is not an academic question.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who has managed a working relationship with Trump, is scheduled to visit Washington next week. He has talked Trump down before. Whether the same approach works now, with oil above $100 and European governments actively blocking U.S. war operations, is an open question.
Julianne Smith, the U.S. ambassador to NATO under President Biden, put it plainly: "I do think we're turning the page of 80 years of working together."
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
- Trump told Reuters he is "considering" withdrawing from NATO after European allies declined to send navies to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil supply.
- Spain closed its airspace to U.S. military planes, France blocked weapons flights to Israel, and Britain restricted base access to defensive missions only, prompting Trump to call the alliance a "paper tiger."
- With Brent crude hovering near $100 a barrel and U.S. gas prices above $4 a gallon, analysts warn the standoff could deteriorate further if NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte fails to change Trump's mind during a Washington visit next week
- .
President Donald Trump told Reuters on Wednesday that he is considering withdrawing the United States from the 76-year-old alliance after European allies declined to send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping.
"Wouldn't you if you were me?" he asked.
Earlier this week, in an interview with Britain's The Telegraph, he called NATO a "paper tiger" and said Russian President Vladimir Putin shared the assessment.
The spat has a straightforward trigger.
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which roughly 20% of the world's oil flows, has been effectively closed to commercial traffic since the war began. Oil prices have surged in response, with Brent briefly touching $120 a barrel before retreating. The EIA now forecasts Brent will average $79 per barrel for the full year, a sharp revision from its pre-war estimate of $58. U.S. gasoline prices have crossed $4 a gallon.
Trump wants allies to help reopen it, but they’ve largely said no.
Spain closed its airspace to U.S. military planes involved in the conflict. France refused to let planes carrying weapons to Israel pass over French territory. Britain allowed American bombers to use its bases, but only for defensive strikes, not offensive ones, prompting Trump to publicly lambast the country's "special relationship." Poland's defense minister said Warsaw has "no plans" to move its Patriot air-defense systems to the Middle East.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio made clear the administration is keeping a ledger. In an interview with Al Jazeera, he called the allies' response "very disappointing" and said the value of NATO, if it only works one direction, is something that will "have to be re-examined."
The energy dimension compounds all of it. Analysts at Macquarie put 40% odds on oil hitting $200 a barrel if the strait remains closed into Q2. Iran has begun laying naval mines in the waterway. The White House, for its part, has responded to the price surge by lifting sanctions on Russian oil, a move that European capitals see as yet another accommodation toward Moscow at their expense.
That dynamic surfaced sharply at a G7 foreign ministers meeting near Paris last week.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas asked Rubio when U.S. patience with Vladimir Putin over Ukraine would run out. Rubio, according to five people familiar with the exchange, responded with irritation. The meeting did not end warmly.
There are reasons to take Trump's NATO threats with some skepticism. He made similar noises during his first term and then praised European leaders effusively at NATO's annual summit in June 2025. A 2023 law co-sponsored by Rubio bars any president from withdrawing without congressional approval, though legal experts say Trump could test that in court. Analysts also note that, as commander-in-chief, he could simply choose not to defend a NATO member under attack, no formal exit required.
"The big question is, let's say there is an actual armed attack on NATO. Would there be a political decision to come to the aid of that ally?" former U.S. ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder told Axios. For countries that share a border with Russia, that is not an academic question.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who has managed a working relationship with Trump, is scheduled to visit Washington next week. He has talked Trump down before. Whether the same approach works now, with oil above $100 and European governments actively blocking U.S. war operations, is an open question.
Julianne Smith, the U.S. ambassador to NATO under President Biden, put it plainly: "I do think we're turning the page of 80 years of working together."
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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