Saudi to raise oil exports to record levels as price war rages
Anuj Chopra with Omar Hasan in Dubai AFP March 30, 2020
Aramco said it would boost its output after oil producers failed to reach a deal on production cuts (AFP Photo/Fayez Nureldine)
Riyadh (AFP) - Saudi Arabia said on Monday it will raise its oil exports to a record 10.6 million barrels per day starting from May despite a global supply glut, escalating a price war with Russia.
Oil prices are languishing at 17-year lows as the coronavirus pandemic threatens a painful global recession that could further sap demand.
Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter which already announced a sharp production increase for April, said it would add additional supplies to the global market, deepening a glut.
"The kingdom plans to raise its petroleum exports by 600,000 bpd from May, so total exports will increase to 10.6 million bpd," said an official at the energy ministry, cited by the state-run Saudi Press Agency.
The announcement came as US President Donald Trump, a close ally of the Saudi crown prince, spoke with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Monday about plunging oil prices and the impact on US producers.
The two leaders agreed to hold US-Russia "consultations" about prices through their energy ministers, the Kremlin said.
Saudi Arabia had been exporting around 7.0 million barrels per day under an output reduction agreement among a 24-member producers' alliance known as OPEC+ which included Russia.
Its Gulf neighbour the United Arab Emirates has also pledged to pump at least one million bpd more from next month.
Riyadh said earlier this month it was raising exports after a production cut agreement among top producers flopped in early March.
OPEC+ failed to reach an agreement on further production cuts to shore up sagging prices as the coronavirus hit the global economy hard.
In an effort to grab market share, Saudi Arabia immediately announced a substantial increase in its production to 12.3 million bpd and exports to 10 million bpd at the beginning of April.
The energy ministry said it would secure the increase from two sources, by using natural gas in the domestic market to free up oil for export and also as domestic consumption drops because of the coronavirus.
Despite the oil crash piling pressure on the Saudi economy, analysts say its latest moves are part of a deliberate long-term strategy to capture greater market share by pressuring its high-cost rivals including US shale producers.
"The kingdom could theoretically be the last man standing, given (its) financial reserves and the ability to borrow money if necessary," said research group JBC Energy.
"For pretty much everybody else in the industry, including US shale and Canadian oil sand companies, it is set to be a much more existential threat, with months of lower production at prices close to zero."
- 'Harder for renewables' -
Saudi Arabia has shrugged off criticism that its aggressive strategy could bankrupt its oil-producing rivals, indicating it was no longer willing to play the role of "swing producer" that bears the burden of stabilising the markets.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman "has embarked on a policy of capturing market share rather than trying to set the price," said Bernard Haykel, a Saudi expert at Princeton University.
"By keeping prices depressed, Saudi policy will not just drive more expensive forms of oil production out of the market; it will also make it harder for renewable energy to compete with fossil fuels -- at least in the near term."
The price of oil struck its lowest levels in more than 17 years on Monday, with Brent North Sea crude tumbling to $22.58 per barrel at one point.
There are warnings that oil could sink even further as storage tanks around the world fill to capacity.
In a letter last week to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a group of US senators accused Saudi Arabia and Russia of waging "economic warfare against the United States".
"During this time of pandemic and global economic crisis, the kingdom of Saudi Arabia has chosen to settle scores in the oil market," the senators wrote in the letter.
"Riyadh's motivation may be multi-faceted -- to punish the Russians, to capture near-term market share, to destabilise long-term investment in American energy."
burs-oh-ac/cm
It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Wednesday, April 01, 2020
The Most Expensive Oil And Gasoline In The World
Josh Owens
Oilprice.com March 30, 2020
Whether or not you follow oil markets, you will likely have seen articles in the media lately claiming that the price of oil has fallen to $20, or that it could possibly fall to $10. The truth about the oil market, however, is far more complex than that. The number quoted in media headlines usually refers to one of two types of crude oil. Often it is the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also known as Texas light sweet, a benchmark for light oil that is generally produced in the Permian Basin in Texas. It can also refer to Brent Crude, a benchmark for sweet light oil extracted from the North Sea which prices two-thirds of the world’s internationally traded crude supplies. But to say ‘oil prices’ have just hit $20 is entirely inaccurate when referring to different international blends.
The price of much of the oil in Canada is far lower than either Brent or WTI at the moment, with Western Canadian Select currently priced at just over $6. Meanwhile, oil blends from Indonesia, Russia, and Iraq are all trading at above $30. But the most expensive crude in the world is likely selling for far more than that. Earlier this year, Australian company Santos sold a 550,000-barrel cargo of the Pyrenees crude grade for loading in March, at a premium of over US$30 over the price of Dated Brent. At the time, that would have been a cost of around $100 per barrel for the prized Pyrenees oil. In today’s environment, that same premium would mean Pyrenees oil bring sold at upwards of $56. Unfortunately, due to a lack of transparency in markets, there currently is no public information on those oil sales. As for the cheapest oil on the market at the moment, Wyoming General Sour would certainly be one of them, selling at $2.75 on Friday.
Just like crude oil, the price of gasoline can fluctuate wildly depending on where you are fuelling up and the different tax policy of the country or state you are in. The current price of NYMEX traded gasoline futures is $0.61 per gallon, which is probably a lot less than how much you paid when you last filled up your gasoline tank. In fact, if you were to try and fill up a tank in Hawaii today you would find yourself paying $3.306 per gallon. If you were in Hong Kong, however, you could spend upwards of $8.48 per gallon at a gas station. And even those numbers don’t tell the full story, because the true price of gasoline anywhere in the world is relative to your spending power. The most expensive gasoline in the world when taking that into account is India, where an average citizen could spend more than 80 percent of their daily wage on one gallon of gas. In Venezuela, by comparison, a gallon of gasoline has been recorded to cost 0.95 percent of the average daily wage – although with the country currently suffering through an intense economic crisis at the moment that figure should be taken with a grain of salt. The U.S. is two places below Venezuela on that list, with a gallon costing 1.64 percent of the average daily wage.
So next time you see prices quoted for either gasoline or crude oil, remember that the only thing it really represents is the general trend in the global cost of those products. The real price at any given location or time could vary significantly.
By Josh Owens for Oilprice.com
Josh Owens
Oilprice.com March 30, 2020
Whether or not you follow oil markets, you will likely have seen articles in the media lately claiming that the price of oil has fallen to $20, or that it could possibly fall to $10. The truth about the oil market, however, is far more complex than that. The number quoted in media headlines usually refers to one of two types of crude oil. Often it is the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also known as Texas light sweet, a benchmark for light oil that is generally produced in the Permian Basin in Texas. It can also refer to Brent Crude, a benchmark for sweet light oil extracted from the North Sea which prices two-thirds of the world’s internationally traded crude supplies. But to say ‘oil prices’ have just hit $20 is entirely inaccurate when referring to different international blends.
The price of much of the oil in Canada is far lower than either Brent or WTI at the moment, with Western Canadian Select currently priced at just over $6. Meanwhile, oil blends from Indonesia, Russia, and Iraq are all trading at above $30. But the most expensive crude in the world is likely selling for far more than that. Earlier this year, Australian company Santos sold a 550,000-barrel cargo of the Pyrenees crude grade for loading in March, at a premium of over US$30 over the price of Dated Brent. At the time, that would have been a cost of around $100 per barrel for the prized Pyrenees oil. In today’s environment, that same premium would mean Pyrenees oil bring sold at upwards of $56. Unfortunately, due to a lack of transparency in markets, there currently is no public information on those oil sales. As for the cheapest oil on the market at the moment, Wyoming General Sour would certainly be one of them, selling at $2.75 on Friday.
Just like crude oil, the price of gasoline can fluctuate wildly depending on where you are fuelling up and the different tax policy of the country or state you are in. The current price of NYMEX traded gasoline futures is $0.61 per gallon, which is probably a lot less than how much you paid when you last filled up your gasoline tank. In fact, if you were to try and fill up a tank in Hawaii today you would find yourself paying $3.306 per gallon. If you were in Hong Kong, however, you could spend upwards of $8.48 per gallon at a gas station. And even those numbers don’t tell the full story, because the true price of gasoline anywhere in the world is relative to your spending power. The most expensive gasoline in the world when taking that into account is India, where an average citizen could spend more than 80 percent of their daily wage on one gallon of gas. In Venezuela, by comparison, a gallon of gasoline has been recorded to cost 0.95 percent of the average daily wage – although with the country currently suffering through an intense economic crisis at the moment that figure should be taken with a grain of salt. The U.S. is two places below Venezuela on that list, with a gallon costing 1.64 percent of the average daily wage.
So next time you see prices quoted for either gasoline or crude oil, remember that the only thing it really represents is the general trend in the global cost of those products. The real price at any given location or time could vary significantly.
By Josh Owens for Oilprice.com
U.S. pension funds may pour $400 billion into stocks, lifting virus-hit markets: JP Morgan
WHY WE RETIREE'S (THE WORKERS OURSELVES 'EMPLOYEES') NEED TO CONTROL OUR PENSION FUNDS NOT INVESTMENT MANAGERS
By Lewis Krauskopf Reuters March 31, 2020
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. pension funds that delayed rebalancing their portfolios are likely to pump about $400 billion into stocks over the next two quarters, analysts at JP Morgan said, providing a potential boost to equity markets battered by the coronavirus pandemic.
Weeks of asset price volatility may have pushed some fund managers to postpone rebalancing portfolios where equity allocations have been knocked out of whack by a sharp decline in stocks, the bank said in a note to investors. The S&P 500 fell 20% since the start of the year, marking its worst quarter since 2008.
"We still expect that US pension funds will eventually rebalance within 1-2 quarters," wrote strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
The bank said its estimate of $400 billion in equity buying by the funds over the next two quarters could prove conservative. U.S. pension funds bought $200 billion in stocks by the first quarter of 2009, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis -- equivalent to $600 billion today, the bank said.
Wild market swings have presented a challenge to asset managers looking to square their portfolios against a benchmark or return to their long-maintained allocation of stocks versus bonds. While the S&P is down about 24% from its February highs, unprecedented support from the Federal Reserve and a $2.2 trillion relief package from U.S. lawmakers helped stocks rally 15.5% since March 23.
At least one fund -- the Los Angeles City Employees' Retirement System, which oversees some $15 billion -- is allowing its rebalancing to be deferred, according to a report in Pensions & Investments. The fund did not immediately respond turn a request for comment.
Brian Reynolds, chief market strategist with Reynolds Strategy, said in a note this week a rebalancing that leads pensions to sell bonds and buy stocks "makes no sense for pensions given the capital calls they are facing from credit and related products."
Some index providers, such as S&P Dow Jones Indices, have delayed their quarterly rebalancing due to the market volatility, potentially complicating the picture for funds that look to track index performance.
Last week's rally in stocks may have helped boost some funds' equity allocations, making the need to increase exposure less acute, said Mike Schumacher, head of macro strategy at Wells Fargo Securities.
The bank last week had estimated that U.S. corporate pensions will need to shift about $40 billion from fixed income into equities to maintain allocation targets. Its estimate now stands at $20 billion following last week's rally, Schumacher said.
At the same time, mutual funds, pensions and other asset managers rebalancing their portfolio may have stoked some of last week's gains.
Steven DeSanctis, an equity strategist at Jefferies, said moves from fixed income into equities "most likely" happened last week, adding that "the rebalancings don’t have to take place on the 31st."
Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, said some of the market's recent gains have come from quarter-end and month-end rebalancing.
"Once we get through the next couple of days, it's going to be a little bit more interesting because the question then becomes, 'Do we return really back to fundamentals and technicals?'."
(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; additional reporting by Sinéad Carew and Medha Singh; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Tom Brown)
WHY WE RETIREE'S (THE WORKERS OURSELVES 'EMPLOYEES') NEED TO CONTROL OUR PENSION FUNDS NOT INVESTMENT MANAGERS
By Lewis Krauskopf Reuters March 31, 2020
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. pension funds that delayed rebalancing their portfolios are likely to pump about $400 billion into stocks over the next two quarters, analysts at JP Morgan said, providing a potential boost to equity markets battered by the coronavirus pandemic.
Weeks of asset price volatility may have pushed some fund managers to postpone rebalancing portfolios where equity allocations have been knocked out of whack by a sharp decline in stocks, the bank said in a note to investors. The S&P 500 fell 20% since the start of the year, marking its worst quarter since 2008.
"We still expect that US pension funds will eventually rebalance within 1-2 quarters," wrote strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
The bank said its estimate of $400 billion in equity buying by the funds over the next two quarters could prove conservative. U.S. pension funds bought $200 billion in stocks by the first quarter of 2009, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis -- equivalent to $600 billion today, the bank said.
Wild market swings have presented a challenge to asset managers looking to square their portfolios against a benchmark or return to their long-maintained allocation of stocks versus bonds. While the S&P is down about 24% from its February highs, unprecedented support from the Federal Reserve and a $2.2 trillion relief package from U.S. lawmakers helped stocks rally 15.5% since March 23.
At least one fund -- the Los Angeles City Employees' Retirement System, which oversees some $15 billion -- is allowing its rebalancing to be deferred, according to a report in Pensions & Investments. The fund did not immediately respond turn a request for comment.
Brian Reynolds, chief market strategist with Reynolds Strategy, said in a note this week a rebalancing that leads pensions to sell bonds and buy stocks "makes no sense for pensions given the capital calls they are facing from credit and related products."
Some index providers, such as S&P Dow Jones Indices, have delayed their quarterly rebalancing due to the market volatility, potentially complicating the picture for funds that look to track index performance.
Last week's rally in stocks may have helped boost some funds' equity allocations, making the need to increase exposure less acute, said Mike Schumacher, head of macro strategy at Wells Fargo Securities.
The bank last week had estimated that U.S. corporate pensions will need to shift about $40 billion from fixed income into equities to maintain allocation targets. Its estimate now stands at $20 billion following last week's rally, Schumacher said.
At the same time, mutual funds, pensions and other asset managers rebalancing their portfolio may have stoked some of last week's gains.
Steven DeSanctis, an equity strategist at Jefferies, said moves from fixed income into equities "most likely" happened last week, adding that "the rebalancings don’t have to take place on the 31st."
Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, said some of the market's recent gains have come from quarter-end and month-end rebalancing.
"Once we get through the next couple of days, it's going to be a little bit more interesting because the question then becomes, 'Do we return really back to fundamentals and technicals?'."
(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; additional reporting by Sinéad Carew and Medha Singh; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Tom Brown)
Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Landlords are Threatening Cash-Strapped Albertans with Evictions in the Middle of the Coronavirus Pandemic
Some landlords show little sympathy despite massive job losses at the hands of crashing oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic
March 26, 2020
After facing crashing oil prices and a deadly pandemic, many recently unemployed Albertans are now dealing with new challenge: landlords.
Though nearly half of Canadian renters have less than a month’s worth of savings on hand, Alberta’s provincial government has been one of only a few in Canada that has not introduced policies to protect renters and ban evictions.
During a press conference Monday, Premier Jason Kenney even appeared to belittle the issu when he suggested many renters facing eviction are actually “engaged in criminal activity or vandalism or operating grow-ops.”
Over the last week, PressProgress heard from dozens of Albertans struggling to make rent during the pandemic, many of whom say they are now dealing with unreasonable landlords or facing evictions.
Ken, a truck driver in Spruce Grove, said his roommate of four years recently lost their job at an Edmonton nightclub and now his rent has suddenly doubled.
“I don’t know what to do,” Ken told PressProgress. “The whole economy is in the tank.”
Ken said his landlord, who owns the house, is now threatening to evict them if he doesn’t find a way to pay her $1,800 over the next few month.
“I can’t afford that alone,” Ken said. “I told her my pay periods going to be on the late side and gave them plenty of time.”
“She said i don’t care, you still have to pay your rent. She said it’s not my problem.”
In Fort Saskatchewan, a mother of two young children said she is facing pressure from a landlord who wants her to find $3,000 in the middle of a pandemic.
“Its been stressing me out,” Patricia told PressProgress. “I have bad credit because I was foolish when I was younger and it’s still affecting me.”
Patricia supplied a copy of an e-mail showing a collections agent for Woodsmere Holdings demanded payment on $3,119.65 in rent money on March 16, one day after the province shut down schools and daycares.
“The choice you made to breach the tenancy agreement between yourself and Woodsmere Holdings has put your tenancy at risk,” the e-mail states. “It is the landlord’s right to be paid on time.”
“Are you vacating or going to pay your rent in full today?
“I have two little girls i have to think of,” Patricia said. “It’s hard to find another place in that short time with everything going on, and with social isolating.”
Jennifer Bell, Woodsmere Holdings’ regional manager for Alberta, told PressProgress the company couldn’t comment on the specifics of Patricia’s situation citing privacy, but said they are “hoping to resolve this in a way that satisfies everybody.”
“We’re certainly not out to remove anybody,” the Woodsmere Holdings spokesperson said. “We’re working with people case-by-case.”
Bell said the company does not have a specific policy relating to evictions during the coronavirus pandemic.
Joe, a laid off casino worker from Edmonton, said he just received his 14 days notice even though he’s never once missed rent since he started living in his apartment.
After his casino shut down on March 17, Joe said he got in touch with his building manager to explain his situation. When the company that owns his building refused to assist him, he says he swore at a company representative and was served with an eviction notice.
“I’ve been real stressed,” Joe explained, adding he offered a “heartfelt apology and explanation of where I’m coming from.”
“They just told me ‘we do have the power to change the locks, we can still force you out’,” Joe said. ” I said ‘you’re hitting me with 14 days notice?’ I’m high risk and I can’t be out during isolation.”
“I’m still not sure if I’m welcome to stay past the eviction date of April 3, 2020.”
Broadstreet Properties, a large property management firm that operates rental
properties across western Canada, told PressProgress it had “no comment.”
Special open registration to rabble.ca's COVID-19 webinar April 8, 7:30 p.m. EST
|
Billions for pipelines in a pandemic?
350.ORG
Tue, Mar 31, 2020
Friends,
Today, I was filled with rage after waking up to the news that Jason Kenney is handing over a billion dollars to the Keystone XL pipeline in the midst of a global pandemic.1
The announcement comes just two days after he laid off 26,000 public education workers on a Saturday afternoon.
Then, a couple of hours later during his daily press conference, Justin Trudeau defended the continued construction of the TransMountain pipeline.2 While telling millions of Canadians to stay at home to stop the spread of COVID-19, he had the nerve to justify cramming thousands of oil workers into man camps on unceded Indigenous lands.
Let’s be clear. There is no way that either of these projects can be built without risking further spread of COVID-19 to workers, rural communities, and the Indigenous nations whose territories they pass through.
To top it all off, these decisions to prop up oil and gas companies are coming not only at a time when oil is worth next to nothing, but at a time when hundreds of thousands of people are worried about paying their April 1st rent and while health care workers across the country are struggling to get the equipment they need to protect themselves.
Right now, millions of people across Alberta, Canada, and around the world are stepping up to have each others’ backs, and we expect our governments to do the same. But instead of supporting working people, they’re making the shameful decision to bail out Big Oil billionaires.
That’s why we’ve published 5 principles for a just recovery from COVID-19. Sign onto them here to speak up in support of providing relief to people, workers and communities not fossil fuel companies.
I honestly can’t say what went through Jason Kenney or Justin Trudeau’s minds when they made their respective decisions.
I do know that we can’t make it out of this crisis by worsening the compounding crises of climate change and economic inequality. When I talk to my family, friends, and neighbours, they all agree — priority number one right now must be to save lives and help one another through this pandemic.
If you agree, add your name to the 5 principles for a just recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Together, we can make it through this,
Emma
References:
1. TC Energy to proceed with Keystone XL pipeline after US$1.1 billion investment from Alberta government
2. National Post: Construction on Trans Mountain pipeline goes on, company says, as First Nations concerned over COVID-19 risks
Keystone XL Oil Pipeline Gets Go-Ahead After Alberta Puts Up $1.1 Billion
Kevin Orland,Bloomberg•March 31, 2020
(Bloomberg) -- North America’s most infamous oil pipeline project just got a surprise $5.3 billion financial aid package from Alberta as the Canadian province fights to rescue its battered oil-sands industry.
Keystone XL, which for years has faced court challenges and environmental opposition in the U.S., will get a $1.1 billion investment and a $4.2 billion loan guarantee from Alberta to help TC Energy Corp. build the line to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. The Calgary-based pipeline giant said it will invest the remaining $2.7 billion.
Once touted by Canada as a key step to turn the country into an energy superpower, the project counted celebrities like Mark Ruffalo and Daryl Hannah among foes who pressured the Obama administration to block it.
Approval from President Donald Trump years later came at a time when investing in the project was far from certain as the Canadian oil industry was cutting costs, competing output from U.S. shale fields abounded and hurdles at state levels emerged.
The move to start construction now, when the crude market has crashed and the project still faces roadblocks in the U.S., shows how critical the fight for the oil industry’s survival has become in Alberta, home to the world’s third-largest crude reserves. The province’s benchmark crude is trading at a record low of $4.09 a barrel.
A shortage of pipeline capacity in the landlocked Canadian province has weighed on local crude prices and restrained producers’ ability to increase output long before the recent oil market collapse. The Covid-19 pandemic and a battle for market share between Saudi Arabia and Russia have further darkened the outlook.
“This investment in Keystone XL is a bold move to re-take control of our province’s economic destiny,” Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said in a statement. Kenney said Alberta would plan to sell its shares to TC at a profit after the project is completed and estimated that Keystone XL would help provide C$30 billion in tax and royalty revenues for the province over the next 20 years.
TC Energy, previously known as TransCanada, rose 6.3% to C$61.94 at 12:22 p.m. in Toronto. The shares had dropped 16% this year through Monday amid a broader meltdown in global equity markets.
Moody’s Investors Service changed the credit outlook for TC to negative from stable on Tuesday, citing the added risks of building Keystone XL. The credit rating firm said the project’s construction could be disrupted by “demonstrations and civil unrest” as well as ongoing legal and regulatory challenges. Political risks could lead the project’s outright cancellation, the firm said.
“The negative outlook reflects the very high level of execution risk related to the environmental, social and governance factors associated with the Keystone XL pipeline project,” Gavin McFarlane, a Moody’s vice president and senior credit officer, said in a note.
Moody’s rates TC’s debt Baa2, the second-lowest investment grade.
When Keystone XL enters service in 2023, the 1,200-mile (1,900-kilometer) conduit will help carry 830,000 barrels of crude a day -- more than last month’s daily production from OPEC member Venezuela.
Among obstacles still facing TC Energy before Keystone XL can be completed, environmental organizations and indigenous groups are challenging the project in U.S. District Court in Montana.
The U.S. presidential election in November also could pose a threat to the project, with much of the Democratic party opposed to the pipeline. Former U.S. President Barack Obama rejected a key permit for Keystone XL in 2015, bringing the pipeline to a halt, but President Donald Trump revived the project by reversing that decision early in his term.
The project has gathered momentum in recent months. The U.S. Interior Department in January authorized construction across a swath of federal land in Montana, and TC Energy had announced plans to move ahead with pre-construction work on the line this year.
Keystone XL already has 20-year agreements to transport 575,000 barrels of crude per day, and contracts for 115,000 barrels of capacity on the existing Keystone line will shift to the new facilities under renewed 20-year contracts once Keystone XL enters service, TC Energy said Tuesday.
“Strong commercial and financial support positions us to prudently build and fund the project,” TC Energy Chief Executive Officer Russ Girling said in a statement.
©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
Disputed Canada-US oil pipeline work to start in April
MATTHEW BROWN, Associated Press•March 31, 2020
Keystone XL Pipeline
FILE - In this Oct. 29, 2019 file photo, opponents of the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada demonstrate in sub-freezing temperatures in Billings, Mont. Alberta is investing $1.1 billion in the disputed Keystone XL pipeline, a project that Alberta Premier Jason Kenney says is crucial for the province's economy. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
More
BILLINGS, Mont. (AP) — A Canadian company said Tuesday it plans to start construction of the disputed Keystone XL oil sands pipeline through the U.S. Midwest in April, after lining up customers and money for a proposal that is bitterly opposed by environmentalists and some American Indian tribes.
Construction would begin at the pipeline's border crossing in Montana, said TC Energy spokesman Terry Cunha. That would be a milestone for a project first proposed in 2008.
The announcement came after the company secured $1.1 billion in financing from the Canadian provincial government of Alberta to cover construction through 2020 and agreements for the transport of 575,000 barrels of oil daily.
Despite plunging oil prices in recent weeks, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said the province's resource-dependent economy could not afford for Keystone XL to be delayed until after the coronavirus pandemic and a global economic downturn have passed.
“This investment in Keystone XL is a bold move to retake control of our province's economic destiny and put it firmly back in the hands of the owners of our natural resources, the people of Alberta," Kenney said.
A spokeswoman for Montana Gov. Steve Bullock said he had been in contact with Kenney to raise concerns over an estimated 100 workers coming into the state for the line's construction. Bullock said that could further strain rural health systems facing the coronavirus.
“TC Energy holds a tremendous responsibility to appropriately manage or eliminate this risk and we will continue to monitor the plans for that response," Bullock spokeswoman Marissa Perry said.
There was only one confirmed infection as of Friday from eastern Montana counties along the line's route, but the virus has been spreading in rural areas in recent days.
Company representatives said they would follow the guidance of government and health authorities to determine the best way to keep construction crews and the public safe.
The pipeline was rejected twice by the administration of President Barack Obama over worries it could make climate change worse. President Donald Trump has been a strong proponent of the $8 billion project and issued it a permit that environmentalists say was illegal.
A court hearing in the permit dispute is set for April 16 before U.S. District Judge Brian Morris in Great Falls. Morris has previously ruled against the project.
The company has previously said it also plans in April to begin work on camps where pipeline construction workers would live in Fallon County, Montana and Haakon County, South Dakota.
The company said the 1,200-mile (1,930-kilometer) pipeline would start sending oil to the U.S. in 2023. It's designed to move up to 830,000 barrels (35 million gallons) of crude daily at from the oil sand fields of western Canada to Steele City, Nebraska, where it would connect to other pipelines that feed oil refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Opponents in January asked Morris to block any work. They said clearing and tree felling along the route would destroy bird and wildlife habitat. Native American tribes along the pipeline route have said that the pipeline could break and spill oil into waterways like Montana's Missouri River.
The judge in December had initially denied a request from environmentalists to block construction because no work was immediately planned.
TC Energy filed reports with court in recent weeks declaring its intentions to start work.
“At this time, we are continuing with our planned activities and will adjust if it becomes necessary," Cunha said.
The remaining $6.9 billion in construction costs is expected to be funded through a $4.2 billion loan guaranteed by the Alberta government and a $2.7 billion investment by TC Energy.
Once the project is complete, TC Energy expects to buy back the Alberta government's investment and refinance the $4.2 billion loan.
"We thank U.S. President Donald Trump and Alberta Premier Jason Kenney as well as many government officials across North America for their advocacy without which, individually and collectively, this project could not have advanced," TC Energy chief executive Russ Girling said in a statement.
A representative of the Sierra Club said the decision to push forward with the project amid the coronavirus pandemic was “a shameful new low" for the company. Pipeline opponents contend workers could inadvertently spread the virus to rural areas with limited health care services.
“By barreling forward with construction during a global pandemic, TC Energy is putting already vulnerable communities at even greater risk," said the Sierra Club's Catherine Collentine. “We will continue to fight to ensure this dangerous pipeline is never completed."
Opposition to another pipeline built through the region several years ago, the Dakota Access Pipeline, culminated in months of protests, sometimes violent, near the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation that straddles the North Dakota-South Dakota state line.
Lawmakers in some states have sought to curb the possibility of similar protests against Keystone XL.
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem successfully pushed a legislative measure to revive the state's criminal and civil penalties for rioting and inciting a riot, drawing demonstrations from groups opposed to the pipeline. The law she signed last week enacts criminal and civil penalties for people who “urge” force or violence.
Noem said she spoke with TC Energy on Monday and did not expect construction to begin in South Dakota until the summer.
Another oil pipeline in TC Energy’s Keystone network in October spilled an estimated 383,000 gallons (1.4 million liters) of oil in eastern North Dakota.
Critics have said a damaging spill from Keystone XL is inevitable given the length of the line and the many rivers and other waterways it would cross beneath.
___
Associated Press writers Stephen Groves contributed from Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Rob Gillies from Toronto.
350.ORG
Tue, Mar 31, 2020
Friends,
Today, I was filled with rage after waking up to the news that Jason Kenney is handing over a billion dollars to the Keystone XL pipeline in the midst of a global pandemic.1
The announcement comes just two days after he laid off 26,000 public education workers on a Saturday afternoon.
Then, a couple of hours later during his daily press conference, Justin Trudeau defended the continued construction of the TransMountain pipeline.2 While telling millions of Canadians to stay at home to stop the spread of COVID-19, he had the nerve to justify cramming thousands of oil workers into man camps on unceded Indigenous lands.
Let’s be clear. There is no way that either of these projects can be built without risking further spread of COVID-19 to workers, rural communities, and the Indigenous nations whose territories they pass through.
To top it all off, these decisions to prop up oil and gas companies are coming not only at a time when oil is worth next to nothing, but at a time when hundreds of thousands of people are worried about paying their April 1st rent and while health care workers across the country are struggling to get the equipment they need to protect themselves.
Right now, millions of people across Alberta, Canada, and around the world are stepping up to have each others’ backs, and we expect our governments to do the same. But instead of supporting working people, they’re making the shameful decision to bail out Big Oil billionaires.
That’s why we’ve published 5 principles for a just recovery from COVID-19. Sign onto them here to speak up in support of providing relief to people, workers and communities not fossil fuel companies.
I honestly can’t say what went through Jason Kenney or Justin Trudeau’s minds when they made their respective decisions.
I do know that we can’t make it out of this crisis by worsening the compounding crises of climate change and economic inequality. When I talk to my family, friends, and neighbours, they all agree — priority number one right now must be to save lives and help one another through this pandemic.
If you agree, add your name to the 5 principles for a just recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Together, we can make it through this,
Emma
References:
1. TC Energy to proceed with Keystone XL pipeline after US$1.1 billion investment from Alberta government
2. National Post: Construction on Trans Mountain pipeline goes on, company says, as First Nations concerned over COVID-19 risks
Keystone XL Oil Pipeline Gets Go-Ahead After Alberta Puts Up $1.1 Billion
Kevin Orland,Bloomberg•March 31, 2020
(Bloomberg) -- North America’s most infamous oil pipeline project just got a surprise $5.3 billion financial aid package from Alberta as the Canadian province fights to rescue its battered oil-sands industry.
Keystone XL, which for years has faced court challenges and environmental opposition in the U.S., will get a $1.1 billion investment and a $4.2 billion loan guarantee from Alberta to help TC Energy Corp. build the line to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. The Calgary-based pipeline giant said it will invest the remaining $2.7 billion.
Once touted by Canada as a key step to turn the country into an energy superpower, the project counted celebrities like Mark Ruffalo and Daryl Hannah among foes who pressured the Obama administration to block it.
Approval from President Donald Trump years later came at a time when investing in the project was far from certain as the Canadian oil industry was cutting costs, competing output from U.S. shale fields abounded and hurdles at state levels emerged.
The move to start construction now, when the crude market has crashed and the project still faces roadblocks in the U.S., shows how critical the fight for the oil industry’s survival has become in Alberta, home to the world’s third-largest crude reserves. The province’s benchmark crude is trading at a record low of $4.09 a barrel.
A shortage of pipeline capacity in the landlocked Canadian province has weighed on local crude prices and restrained producers’ ability to increase output long before the recent oil market collapse. The Covid-19 pandemic and a battle for market share between Saudi Arabia and Russia have further darkened the outlook.
“This investment in Keystone XL is a bold move to re-take control of our province’s economic destiny,” Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said in a statement. Kenney said Alberta would plan to sell its shares to TC at a profit after the project is completed and estimated that Keystone XL would help provide C$30 billion in tax and royalty revenues for the province over the next 20 years.
TC Energy, previously known as TransCanada, rose 6.3% to C$61.94 at 12:22 p.m. in Toronto. The shares had dropped 16% this year through Monday amid a broader meltdown in global equity markets.
Moody’s Investors Service changed the credit outlook for TC to negative from stable on Tuesday, citing the added risks of building Keystone XL. The credit rating firm said the project’s construction could be disrupted by “demonstrations and civil unrest” as well as ongoing legal and regulatory challenges. Political risks could lead the project’s outright cancellation, the firm said.
“The negative outlook reflects the very high level of execution risk related to the environmental, social and governance factors associated with the Keystone XL pipeline project,” Gavin McFarlane, a Moody’s vice president and senior credit officer, said in a note.
Moody’s rates TC’s debt Baa2, the second-lowest investment grade.
When Keystone XL enters service in 2023, the 1,200-mile (1,900-kilometer) conduit will help carry 830,000 barrels of crude a day -- more than last month’s daily production from OPEC member Venezuela.
Among obstacles still facing TC Energy before Keystone XL can be completed, environmental organizations and indigenous groups are challenging the project in U.S. District Court in Montana.
The U.S. presidential election in November also could pose a threat to the project, with much of the Democratic party opposed to the pipeline. Former U.S. President Barack Obama rejected a key permit for Keystone XL in 2015, bringing the pipeline to a halt, but President Donald Trump revived the project by reversing that decision early in his term.
The project has gathered momentum in recent months. The U.S. Interior Department in January authorized construction across a swath of federal land in Montana, and TC Energy had announced plans to move ahead with pre-construction work on the line this year.
Keystone XL already has 20-year agreements to transport 575,000 barrels of crude per day, and contracts for 115,000 barrels of capacity on the existing Keystone line will shift to the new facilities under renewed 20-year contracts once Keystone XL enters service, TC Energy said Tuesday.
“Strong commercial and financial support positions us to prudently build and fund the project,” TC Energy Chief Executive Officer Russ Girling said in a statement.
©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
Disputed Canada-US oil pipeline work to start in April
MATTHEW BROWN, Associated Press•March 31, 2020
Keystone XL Pipeline
FILE - In this Oct. 29, 2019 file photo, opponents of the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada demonstrate in sub-freezing temperatures in Billings, Mont. Alberta is investing $1.1 billion in the disputed Keystone XL pipeline, a project that Alberta Premier Jason Kenney says is crucial for the province's economy. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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BILLINGS, Mont. (AP) — A Canadian company said Tuesday it plans to start construction of the disputed Keystone XL oil sands pipeline through the U.S. Midwest in April, after lining up customers and money for a proposal that is bitterly opposed by environmentalists and some American Indian tribes.
Construction would begin at the pipeline's border crossing in Montana, said TC Energy spokesman Terry Cunha. That would be a milestone for a project first proposed in 2008.
The announcement came after the company secured $1.1 billion in financing from the Canadian provincial government of Alberta to cover construction through 2020 and agreements for the transport of 575,000 barrels of oil daily.
Despite plunging oil prices in recent weeks, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said the province's resource-dependent economy could not afford for Keystone XL to be delayed until after the coronavirus pandemic and a global economic downturn have passed.
“This investment in Keystone XL is a bold move to retake control of our province's economic destiny and put it firmly back in the hands of the owners of our natural resources, the people of Alberta," Kenney said.
A spokeswoman for Montana Gov. Steve Bullock said he had been in contact with Kenney to raise concerns over an estimated 100 workers coming into the state for the line's construction. Bullock said that could further strain rural health systems facing the coronavirus.
“TC Energy holds a tremendous responsibility to appropriately manage or eliminate this risk and we will continue to monitor the plans for that response," Bullock spokeswoman Marissa Perry said.
There was only one confirmed infection as of Friday from eastern Montana counties along the line's route, but the virus has been spreading in rural areas in recent days.
Company representatives said they would follow the guidance of government and health authorities to determine the best way to keep construction crews and the public safe.
The pipeline was rejected twice by the administration of President Barack Obama over worries it could make climate change worse. President Donald Trump has been a strong proponent of the $8 billion project and issued it a permit that environmentalists say was illegal.
A court hearing in the permit dispute is set for April 16 before U.S. District Judge Brian Morris in Great Falls. Morris has previously ruled against the project.
The company has previously said it also plans in April to begin work on camps where pipeline construction workers would live in Fallon County, Montana and Haakon County, South Dakota.
The company said the 1,200-mile (1,930-kilometer) pipeline would start sending oil to the U.S. in 2023. It's designed to move up to 830,000 barrels (35 million gallons) of crude daily at from the oil sand fields of western Canada to Steele City, Nebraska, where it would connect to other pipelines that feed oil refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Opponents in January asked Morris to block any work. They said clearing and tree felling along the route would destroy bird and wildlife habitat. Native American tribes along the pipeline route have said that the pipeline could break and spill oil into waterways like Montana's Missouri River.
The judge in December had initially denied a request from environmentalists to block construction because no work was immediately planned.
TC Energy filed reports with court in recent weeks declaring its intentions to start work.
“At this time, we are continuing with our planned activities and will adjust if it becomes necessary," Cunha said.
The remaining $6.9 billion in construction costs is expected to be funded through a $4.2 billion loan guaranteed by the Alberta government and a $2.7 billion investment by TC Energy.
Once the project is complete, TC Energy expects to buy back the Alberta government's investment and refinance the $4.2 billion loan.
"We thank U.S. President Donald Trump and Alberta Premier Jason Kenney as well as many government officials across North America for their advocacy without which, individually and collectively, this project could not have advanced," TC Energy chief executive Russ Girling said in a statement.
A representative of the Sierra Club said the decision to push forward with the project amid the coronavirus pandemic was “a shameful new low" for the company. Pipeline opponents contend workers could inadvertently spread the virus to rural areas with limited health care services.
“By barreling forward with construction during a global pandemic, TC Energy is putting already vulnerable communities at even greater risk," said the Sierra Club's Catherine Collentine. “We will continue to fight to ensure this dangerous pipeline is never completed."
Opposition to another pipeline built through the region several years ago, the Dakota Access Pipeline, culminated in months of protests, sometimes violent, near the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation that straddles the North Dakota-South Dakota state line.
Lawmakers in some states have sought to curb the possibility of similar protests against Keystone XL.
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem successfully pushed a legislative measure to revive the state's criminal and civil penalties for rioting and inciting a riot, drawing demonstrations from groups opposed to the pipeline. The law she signed last week enacts criminal and civil penalties for people who “urge” force or violence.
Noem said she spoke with TC Energy on Monday and did not expect construction to begin in South Dakota until the summer.
Another oil pipeline in TC Energy’s Keystone network in October spilled an estimated 383,000 gallons (1.4 million liters) of oil in eastern North Dakota.
Critics have said a damaging spill from Keystone XL is inevitable given the length of the line and the many rivers and other waterways it would cross beneath.
___
Associated Press writers Stephen Groves contributed from Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Rob Gillies from Toronto.
Preliminary research describes method to disinfect badly needed respirators
by Bill Hathaway, Yale University
Credit: CC0 Public Domain
Vaporized hydrogen peroxide can disinfect respirator masks used by health care workers treating patients infected with COVID-19 virus, according to preliminary findings by Yale researchers.
Although researchers did not test for its ability to disinfect COVID-19, a device that circulates vaporized hydrogen peroxide and commonly used to disinfect hospital rooms can clear three types of viruses placed on N95-respirators, found the study, now in expedited peer review.
These respirator masks offer state-of-the art protection against infection for health care workers, and are in extremely high demand in pandemic-stricken regions of the country. But after use, they can harbor viral particles, and can potentially infect health care workers.
The device, made by the international firm Bioquell, is in use in some hospitals for sanitizing rooms where patients with highly infectious diseases have been treated.
In theory, thousands of respirator masks could be cleansed of pathogens daily in dedicated areas of a hospital by using vaporized hydrogen peroxide, the authors say.
The study was conducted at Yale New Haven Hospital by Yale's Patrick Kenney, assistant professor of urology; Richard Martinello, associate professor of medicine (infectious diseases) and pediatrics; and Benjamin Chan, research scientist in ecology and evolutionary biology. It has been posted on MedRxiv, a site that posts unpublished research from scientists.
The site cautions that research posted there should not be used to inform clinical-care decisions until published in a peer-reviewed journal. Kenney said he hopes that expedited approval for publication will come within the next few daysFollow the latest news on the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
More information: Patrick Kenney et al. Hydrogen Peroxide Vapor sterilization of N95 respirators for reuse, (2020). DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.24.20041087
Vaporized hydrogen peroxide can disinfect respirator masks used by health care workers treating patients infected with COVID-19 virus, according to preliminary findings by Yale researchers.
Although researchers did not test for its ability to disinfect COVID-19, a device that circulates vaporized hydrogen peroxide and commonly used to disinfect hospital rooms can clear three types of viruses placed on N95-respirators, found the study, now in expedited peer review.
These respirator masks offer state-of-the art protection against infection for health care workers, and are in extremely high demand in pandemic-stricken regions of the country. But after use, they can harbor viral particles, and can potentially infect health care workers.
The device, made by the international firm Bioquell, is in use in some hospitals for sanitizing rooms where patients with highly infectious diseases have been treated.
In theory, thousands of respirator masks could be cleansed of pathogens daily in dedicated areas of a hospital by using vaporized hydrogen peroxide, the authors say.
The study was conducted at Yale New Haven Hospital by Yale's Patrick Kenney, assistant professor of urology; Richard Martinello, associate professor of medicine (infectious diseases) and pediatrics; and Benjamin Chan, research scientist in ecology and evolutionary biology. It has been posted on MedRxiv, a site that posts unpublished research from scientists.
The site cautions that research posted there should not be used to inform clinical-care decisions until published in a peer-reviewed journal. Kenney said he hopes that expedited approval for publication will come within the next few daysFollow the latest news on the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
More information: Patrick Kenney et al. Hydrogen Peroxide Vapor sterilization of N95 respirators for reuse, (2020). DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.24.20041087
More evidence COVID-19 survivors' blood could help very ill patients
by Amy Norton MARCH 31, 2020
A small study out of China bolsters the notion that transfusing the antibody-enriched blood of people who've survived COVID-19 could help patients still fighting for their lives against the disease.
The study of five critically ill patients from near the initial epicenter of the novel coronavirus pandemic found that all five patients survived COVID-19 following the transfusion.
If the findings are replicated in larger trials, widespread use of the treatment "could help change the course of this pandemic," wrote Drs. John Roback and Jeannette Guarner of Emory Medical Laboratories, affiliated with Emory University in Atlanta.
Roback and Guarner wrote an editorial accompanying the new Chinese study, which was published online March 27 in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
Despite the fact that tens of thousands of people have died from COVID-19 around the world, the vast majority—about 85%—of cases are actually asymptomatic or mild, similar to a cold or flu. But people who pass through COVID-19 relatively unharmed acquire a powerful immunological legacy: Antibodies in their blood that can recognize and attack the new coronavirus.
There are currently no drugs or vaccines to help fight COVID-19. However, early in the pandemic, doctors understood that blood donations from survivors might help protect or treat other people, according to some infectious disease experts.
The notion is far from new. In the first half of the 20th century, doctors used "convalescent serum" in an effort to treat people during outbreaks of viral infections like measles, mumps and influenza—including during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.
The principle is fairly simple: When a pathogen invades the body, the immune system produces antibodies that latch onto the enemy, marking it for destruction. After recovery, those antibodies remain circulating in a person's blood, for anywhere from months to years.
In theory, transferring some of those antibodies to other people with the same virus could help their bodies fight it off. Or, given to healthy people—like the health care workers on the front lines—the antibodies might offer some temporary protection from infection.
A long history in medicine
In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic—with no vaccine or antiviral drug coming soon—antibodies from recovering patients could provide a "stopgap" measure, according to Drs. Arturo Casadevall and Liise-anne Pirofski. It's an approach called "convalescent serum."
Casadevall, of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health in Baltimore, and Pirofski, of Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York City, laid out their case in the March 16 online edition of the Journal of Clinical Investigation.
For one, the authors pointed out, convalescent serum is not a thing of the past. It has been tried in limited numbers of patients during more-recent viral crises, including the 2003 SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) epidemic, the 2009 "swine flu" epidemic, and the 2012 outbreak of MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome).
Reports on those attempts indicate the antibody treatment generally reduced the severity of patients' illnesses and improved survival.
"In addition to public health containment and mitigation protocols, this may be our only near-term option for treating and preventing COVID-19," Casadevall said in a statement from Johns Hopkins. "And it is something we can start putting into place in the next few weeks and months."
The new Chinese study offers more evidence that convalescent serum works.
The research was led by Dr. Yingxia Liu, of a hospital affiliated with the Southern University of Science and Technology in Shenzhen, China, near the city of Wuhan, where the COVID-19 pandemic began.
Liu's team focused on the plight of five extremely ill patients who required mechanical ventilation in the intensive care unit to breathe. They had also received antiviral medications and other drugs.
Desperate to save them, physicians transfused the donated blood of COVID-19 survivors into the very sick patients. Within just three days, fever began to subside in four of the five patients, there was a reversal in their progression to organ failure, viral loads fells, and by 12 days after the transfusion, four of the patients had recovered from acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), which so often proves fatal to patients.
As of the end of March, three of the patients have been discharged from the hospital, the Chinese authors said, and the other two are now in stable condition.
First U.S. patients being treated
Use of convalescent serum "is a good idea. It's something that's been used before, and we know how to do it," said Dr. Gregory Poland, who heads the Vaccine Research Group at the Mayo Clinic, in Rochester, Minn.
That's not to say doctors can just start doing it. "You still have to go through the FDA," Poland said, referring to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
Now, Houston Methodist hospital in Texas announced that it has "received FDA approval Saturday to become the first academic medical center in the nation to transfuse donated plasma from a recovered COVID-19 patient into a critically ill patient."
The transfusion occurred Saturday evening, the hospital said in a news release.
The treatment is also being planned for use by doctors elsewhere. In New York City earlier this week, Governor Andrew Cuomo said that recruitment will soon begin for plasma donations from COVID-19 survivors, and initially would focus on the New York City suburb of New Rochelle, N.Y., which has been hit hard by the outbreak.
Also, New York hospital system Mount Sinai, in collaboration with the state's Blood Center and Department of Health, said trials in the technique could begin as early as the beginning of April.
Doctors' experience with the general approach is not limited to viral pandemics, Poland pointed out. They routinely use injections of immune globulin—purified antibody preparations taken from donated human blood—to treat certain medical conditions.
In addition, modern blood-banking techniques, which screen for infectious agents, should ensure any such tactic against COVID-19 would be as safe as a standard blood transfusion, Poland said.
Maintaining safety
Standard protocols will be needed, including logistic matters like coordination among local doctors, blood banks and hospitals, according to Casadevall.
"We'll have to put protocols in place to make sure that the use of this sera [blood] is safe," Casadevall said. But, he added, "we're not talking about research and development—this is something that physicians, blood banks, and hospitals already know how to do and can do today."
Dr. Bruce Y. Lee is a professor of health policy management at City University of New York. He said the convalescent serum idea is "certainly worth exploring."
"We're in a situation where the toolbox is pretty empty," Lee said.
Both he and Poland pointed to some key unknowns, including: How long do antibodies against this novel virus last? What amount of antibody would be necessary to help treat the infection or offer some protection?
What is clear is that any protection would be temporary. "This would not replace a vaccine," Lee stressed. Vaccines, he noted, work by training the immune system to launch its own response to an invader, which involves more than antibodies.
And what about people who've recovered from COVID-19? Are they immune to it, at least for a while? There have been reports from China and Japan of patients being declared infection-free then testing positive again.
However, Poland said those cases probably reflect an issue with the testing. "I don't think they represent re-infections," he said. "That would be highly unusual."
Explore furtherFollow the latest news on the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
More information: The World Health Organization has updates on COVID-19.
by Amy Norton MARCH 31, 2020
A small study out of China bolsters the notion that transfusing the antibody-enriched blood of people who've survived COVID-19 could help patients still fighting for their lives against the disease.
The study of five critically ill patients from near the initial epicenter of the novel coronavirus pandemic found that all five patients survived COVID-19 following the transfusion.
If the findings are replicated in larger trials, widespread use of the treatment "could help change the course of this pandemic," wrote Drs. John Roback and Jeannette Guarner of Emory Medical Laboratories, affiliated with Emory University in Atlanta.
Roback and Guarner wrote an editorial accompanying the new Chinese study, which was published online March 27 in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
Despite the fact that tens of thousands of people have died from COVID-19 around the world, the vast majority—about 85%—of cases are actually asymptomatic or mild, similar to a cold or flu. But people who pass through COVID-19 relatively unharmed acquire a powerful immunological legacy: Antibodies in their blood that can recognize and attack the new coronavirus.
There are currently no drugs or vaccines to help fight COVID-19. However, early in the pandemic, doctors understood that blood donations from survivors might help protect or treat other people, according to some infectious disease experts.
The notion is far from new. In the first half of the 20th century, doctors used "convalescent serum" in an effort to treat people during outbreaks of viral infections like measles, mumps and influenza—including during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.
The principle is fairly simple: When a pathogen invades the body, the immune system produces antibodies that latch onto the enemy, marking it for destruction. After recovery, those antibodies remain circulating in a person's blood, for anywhere from months to years.
In theory, transferring some of those antibodies to other people with the same virus could help their bodies fight it off. Or, given to healthy people—like the health care workers on the front lines—the antibodies might offer some temporary protection from infection.
A long history in medicine
In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic—with no vaccine or antiviral drug coming soon—antibodies from recovering patients could provide a "stopgap" measure, according to Drs. Arturo Casadevall and Liise-anne Pirofski. It's an approach called "convalescent serum."
Casadevall, of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health in Baltimore, and Pirofski, of Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York City, laid out their case in the March 16 online edition of the Journal of Clinical Investigation.
For one, the authors pointed out, convalescent serum is not a thing of the past. It has been tried in limited numbers of patients during more-recent viral crises, including the 2003 SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) epidemic, the 2009 "swine flu" epidemic, and the 2012 outbreak of MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome).
Reports on those attempts indicate the antibody treatment generally reduced the severity of patients' illnesses and improved survival.
"In addition to public health containment and mitigation protocols, this may be our only near-term option for treating and preventing COVID-19," Casadevall said in a statement from Johns Hopkins. "And it is something we can start putting into place in the next few weeks and months."
The new Chinese study offers more evidence that convalescent serum works.
The research was led by Dr. Yingxia Liu, of a hospital affiliated with the Southern University of Science and Technology in Shenzhen, China, near the city of Wuhan, where the COVID-19 pandemic began.
Liu's team focused on the plight of five extremely ill patients who required mechanical ventilation in the intensive care unit to breathe. They had also received antiviral medications and other drugs.
Desperate to save them, physicians transfused the donated blood of COVID-19 survivors into the very sick patients. Within just three days, fever began to subside in four of the five patients, there was a reversal in their progression to organ failure, viral loads fells, and by 12 days after the transfusion, four of the patients had recovered from acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), which so often proves fatal to patients.
As of the end of March, three of the patients have been discharged from the hospital, the Chinese authors said, and the other two are now in stable condition.
First U.S. patients being treated
Use of convalescent serum "is a good idea. It's something that's been used before, and we know how to do it," said Dr. Gregory Poland, who heads the Vaccine Research Group at the Mayo Clinic, in Rochester, Minn.
That's not to say doctors can just start doing it. "You still have to go through the FDA," Poland said, referring to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
Now, Houston Methodist hospital in Texas announced that it has "received FDA approval Saturday to become the first academic medical center in the nation to transfuse donated plasma from a recovered COVID-19 patient into a critically ill patient."
The transfusion occurred Saturday evening, the hospital said in a news release.
The treatment is also being planned for use by doctors elsewhere. In New York City earlier this week, Governor Andrew Cuomo said that recruitment will soon begin for plasma donations from COVID-19 survivors, and initially would focus on the New York City suburb of New Rochelle, N.Y., which has been hit hard by the outbreak.
Also, New York hospital system Mount Sinai, in collaboration with the state's Blood Center and Department of Health, said trials in the technique could begin as early as the beginning of April.
Doctors' experience with the general approach is not limited to viral pandemics, Poland pointed out. They routinely use injections of immune globulin—purified antibody preparations taken from donated human blood—to treat certain medical conditions.
In addition, modern blood-banking techniques, which screen for infectious agents, should ensure any such tactic against COVID-19 would be as safe as a standard blood transfusion, Poland said.
Maintaining safety
Standard protocols will be needed, including logistic matters like coordination among local doctors, blood banks and hospitals, according to Casadevall.
"We'll have to put protocols in place to make sure that the use of this sera [blood] is safe," Casadevall said. But, he added, "we're not talking about research and development—this is something that physicians, blood banks, and hospitals already know how to do and can do today."
Dr. Bruce Y. Lee is a professor of health policy management at City University of New York. He said the convalescent serum idea is "certainly worth exploring."
"We're in a situation where the toolbox is pretty empty," Lee said.
Both he and Poland pointed to some key unknowns, including: How long do antibodies against this novel virus last? What amount of antibody would be necessary to help treat the infection or offer some protection?
What is clear is that any protection would be temporary. "This would not replace a vaccine," Lee stressed. Vaccines, he noted, work by training the immune system to launch its own response to an invader, which involves more than antibodies.
And what about people who've recovered from COVID-19? Are they immune to it, at least for a while? There have been reports from China and Japan of patients being declared infection-free then testing positive again.
However, Poland said those cases probably reflect an issue with the testing. "I don't think they represent re-infections," he said. "That would be highly unusual."
Explore furtherFollow the latest news on the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
More information: The World Health Organization has updates on COVID-19.
China's control measures may have prevented 700,000 COVID-19 cases: study
by Pennsylvania State University
by Pennsylvania State University
Credit: CC0 Public Domain
China's control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic may have delayed the spread of the virus to cities outside of Wuhan by several days and, by interrupting transmission nationwide, prevented more than 700,000 infections across the country, according to an international team of researchers. The findings, published today (March 31) in the journal Science, could be useful to countries that are still in early phases of the COVID-19 outbreak.
"The number of confirmed cases in China by day 50 (February 19) of the epidemic, was around 30,000," said Christopher Dye, visiting professor of zoology and visiting fellow at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford. "Our analysis suggests that without the Wuhan travel ban and the national emergency response there would have been more than 700,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases outside of Wuhan by that date. China's control measures appear to have worked by successfully breaking the chain of transmission—preventing contact between infectious and susceptible people."
The researchers used a unique combination of case reports, human movement data and public health intervention information to investigate the spread and control of COVID-19. They examined the movements of 4.3 million people out of Wuhan before the travel ban, the types and timing of control measures implemented across the cities of China and the numbers of COVID-19 cases reported each day in every city.
"One fascinating aspect of our work is that it shows the power of novel data streams such as cell phone mobility data," said Ottar Bjornstad, distinguished professor of entomology and biology, Penn State. "Since the time period we studied included the Spring Festival holiday and Chinese Lunar New Year, we were able to compare patterns of travel into and out of Wuhan during the outbreak with cell phone data from two previous spring festivals. The analysis revealed an extraordinary reduction in movement following the travel ban of January 23, 2020. Based on this data, we could also calculate the likely reduction in Wuhan-associated cases in other cities across China."
The team's model also analyzed the specific effects of the Wuhan shutdown and found that it delayed the arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by several days. "This delay provided extra time to prepare for the arrival of COVID-19 in more than 130 cities," said Huaiyu Tian, associate professor of epidemiology, Beijing Normal University.
These cities banned public gatherings, closed entertainment venues and suspended public transport, among other actions. As a result, they reported 33% fewer confirmed cases during the first week of their outbreaks than cities that did not implement a Level 1 Response.
While the control measures taken thus far have reduced the number of COVID-19 infections to very low levels, China, is by no means out of the woods.
"Given the small fraction of the Chinese population that has been infected, a much larger number of people remains at risk of COVID-19," said Tian. "We are acutely aware that resident or imported infections could lead to a resurgence of transmission."
Bjornstad noted that SARS-CoV-2 may establish as a human endemic globally in the years to come.
"It is critical to keep in mind that this virgin epidemic likely will affect people of different ages and susceptibilities, and therefore have different fatality levels, than possible subsequent seasonal epidemics," he said.
Travel restrictions are most useful in the early and late phase of an epidemic: study
More information: Science (2020). DOI: 10.1126/science.abb6105
Coronavirus measures may have already averted up to 120,000 deaths across Europe
by Ryan O'hare, Dr Sabine L. Van Elsland, Imperial College London
More information: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries: www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global- … e-analysis/covid-19/
China's control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic may have delayed the spread of the virus to cities outside of Wuhan by several days and, by interrupting transmission nationwide, prevented more than 700,000 infections across the country, according to an international team of researchers. The findings, published today (March 31) in the journal Science, could be useful to countries that are still in early phases of the COVID-19 outbreak.
"The number of confirmed cases in China by day 50 (February 19) of the epidemic, was around 30,000," said Christopher Dye, visiting professor of zoology and visiting fellow at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford. "Our analysis suggests that without the Wuhan travel ban and the national emergency response there would have been more than 700,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases outside of Wuhan by that date. China's control measures appear to have worked by successfully breaking the chain of transmission—preventing contact between infectious and susceptible people."
The researchers used a unique combination of case reports, human movement data and public health intervention information to investigate the spread and control of COVID-19. They examined the movements of 4.3 million people out of Wuhan before the travel ban, the types and timing of control measures implemented across the cities of China and the numbers of COVID-19 cases reported each day in every city.
"One fascinating aspect of our work is that it shows the power of novel data streams such as cell phone mobility data," said Ottar Bjornstad, distinguished professor of entomology and biology, Penn State. "Since the time period we studied included the Spring Festival holiday and Chinese Lunar New Year, we were able to compare patterns of travel into and out of Wuhan during the outbreak with cell phone data from two previous spring festivals. The analysis revealed an extraordinary reduction in movement following the travel ban of January 23, 2020. Based on this data, we could also calculate the likely reduction in Wuhan-associated cases in other cities across China."
The team's model also analyzed the specific effects of the Wuhan shutdown and found that it delayed the arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by several days. "This delay provided extra time to prepare for the arrival of COVID-19 in more than 130 cities," said Huaiyu Tian, associate professor of epidemiology, Beijing Normal University.
These cities banned public gatherings, closed entertainment venues and suspended public transport, among other actions. As a result, they reported 33% fewer confirmed cases during the first week of their outbreaks than cities that did not implement a Level 1 Response.
While the control measures taken thus far have reduced the number of COVID-19 infections to very low levels, China, is by no means out of the woods.
"Given the small fraction of the Chinese population that has been infected, a much larger number of people remains at risk of COVID-19," said Tian. "We are acutely aware that resident or imported infections could lead to a resurgence of transmission."
Bjornstad noted that SARS-CoV-2 may establish as a human endemic globally in the years to come.
"It is critical to keep in mind that this virgin epidemic likely will affect people of different ages and susceptibilities, and therefore have different fatality levels, than possible subsequent seasonal epidemics," he said.
Travel restrictions are most useful in the early and late phase of an epidemic: study
More information: Science (2020). DOI: 10.1126/science.abb6105
Coronavirus measures may have already averted up to 120,000 deaths across Europe
by Ryan O'hare, Dr Sabine L. Van Elsland, Imperial College London
Credit: Imperial College London
Strong social distancing measures to slow and suppress the spread of COVID-19 across Europe are estimated to have averted thousands of deaths.
The findings come from a new analysis by researchers at Imperial College London, which estimates the potential impact of interventions in 11 European countries to counter the coronavirus pandemic—including school closures and national lockdowns.
According to the research, up to 120,000 deaths may have already been averted in 11 countries, including the UK, Italy and Spain. However, they add that the estimated proportion of people to have been infected with the virus may only be between 2 to 12% of the population (2.7% in the UK).
The report is the thirteenth to be released by The WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling within the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (GIDA), Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA).
Europe-wide response
Many European countries have now implemented unprecedented measures to mitigate the impact of COVID-19, including isolation of confirmed and suspected cases, closing schools and universities, banning mass-gatherings, and most recently, wide-scale social distancing including local and national lockdowns.
Such interventions are aimed at managing the epidemic to prevent an unmitigated rise in cases which would overload health care capacity. Now, the latest modeling shows that they may be having a significant impact, potentially averting up to 120,000 deaths across Europe.
Dr. Samir Bhatt, report author and Senior Lecturer from the School of Public Health, said: "It is of course a difficult time for Europe, but governments have taken significant steps to ensure health systems do not get overwhelmed. There is sound evidence that these have started to work and have flattened the curve.
"We believe a large number of lives have been saved. However, it is too soon to say if we have managed to fully control epidemics and more difficult decisions will need to be taken in the coming weeks"
Dr. Seth Flaxman, first author on the latest study, added: "Even as the death toll continues to mount, we see enough signal in the data to conclude that sustained, drastic actions taken by European governments have already saved lives by driving down the number of new infections each day.
"But because these interventions are very recent in most countries, and there is a lag between infection and death, it will take longer—from days to weeks—for these effects to be reflected in the number of daily deaths."
Strong social distancing measures to slow and suppress the spread of COVID-19 across Europe are estimated to have averted thousands of deaths.
The findings come from a new analysis by researchers at Imperial College London, which estimates the potential impact of interventions in 11 European countries to counter the coronavirus pandemic—including school closures and national lockdowns.
According to the research, up to 120,000 deaths may have already been averted in 11 countries, including the UK, Italy and Spain. However, they add that the estimated proportion of people to have been infected with the virus may only be between 2 to 12% of the population (2.7% in the UK).
The report is the thirteenth to be released by The WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling within the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (GIDA), Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA).
Europe-wide response
Many European countries have now implemented unprecedented measures to mitigate the impact of COVID-19, including isolation of confirmed and suspected cases, closing schools and universities, banning mass-gatherings, and most recently, wide-scale social distancing including local and national lockdowns.
Such interventions are aimed at managing the epidemic to prevent an unmitigated rise in cases which would overload health care capacity. Now, the latest modeling shows that they may be having a significant impact, potentially averting up to 120,000 deaths across Europe.
Dr. Samir Bhatt, report author and Senior Lecturer from the School of Public Health, said: "It is of course a difficult time for Europe, but governments have taken significant steps to ensure health systems do not get overwhelmed. There is sound evidence that these have started to work and have flattened the curve.
"We believe a large number of lives have been saved. However, it is too soon to say if we have managed to fully control epidemics and more difficult decisions will need to be taken in the coming weeks"
Dr. Seth Flaxman, first author on the latest study, added: "Even as the death toll continues to mount, we see enough signal in the data to conclude that sustained, drastic actions taken by European governments have already saved lives by driving down the number of new infections each day.
"But because these interventions are very recent in most countries, and there is a lag between infection and death, it will take longer—from days to weeks—for these effects to be reflected in the number of daily deaths."
Intervention timings for the 11 European countries included in the analysis. Credit: Imperial College London
Modeling the impact
In the latest report, researchers aimed to model the likely impact of interventions in place on reducing loss of life. The team used real-time daily data from the European Centre of Disease Control (ECDC) on the number of deaths in 11 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
The models focused on reproductive number—the average number of new infections generated by each infected person. It was assumed that changes in reproductive number are an immediate response to these interventions being implemented, rather than broader gradual changes in behavior. Overall, the models estimate that countries have managed to reduce their reproductive number.
The team's analysis shows that with the current interventions remaining in place, that measures across all 11 countries will have averted between 21,000 and 120,000 deaths up to 31 March. They add that many more deaths will be averted by keeping interventions in place until transmission drops to low levels.
"Our results suggest that interventions such as social distancing or lockdowns have already saved many lives and will continue to save lives," explained Professor Axel Gandy, Chair of Statistics within the Department of Mathematics. "The impact of the pandemic is extreme—but it would have been much worse without the interventions. Keeping interventions in place is crucial for controlling it."
In addition to reducing deaths, the latest report estimates that between 7 and 43 million people have been infected with the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) across all 11 countries up to 28th March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population.
Given the lag of 2-3 weeks between when transmission changes occur and when their impact can be observed in trends in deaths, it may still be too early to show for most of the 11 countries that recent interventions have been effective.
The researchers stress that the results are strongly driven by the data from countries with more advanced epidemics, and earlier interventions. It is critical, they explain, that the current social distancing measures remain in place, and trends in cases and deaths are closely monitored in the coming days and weeks to provide reassurance that transmission of the virus is slowing.
Professor Christl Donnelly, Professor of Statistical Epidemiology within the School of Public Health, said: "Europeans, like many people elsewhere, have changed their lives profoundly in recent weeks. This report makes clear early evidence of the benefits of these social distancing measures. By keeping our distance from each other, we limit the opportunities for the virus to spread and reduce the risks of illness and even death among those around us."
Professor Neil Ferguson, Director of J-IDEA at Imperial, added: "This analysis show that the interventions European countries have put in place have significantly slowed the spread of COVID-19. However, it is not yet clear whether or how quickly these measures will cause the numbers of new cases to decline. Data collected in the next two weeks will be crucial to refining our assessment of this key point."
Report author Dr. Swapnil Mishra, a Research Associate within the School of Public Health, said: "We implement a novel scientific model of the epidemic within a robust statistical framework. It is a fully Bayesian analysis, so we do not just look at a single scenario, but rather thousands of plausible scenarios and counterfactuals. Our analysis suggests in these difficult times interventions are required and necessary to keep the pandemic in control."
Explore furtherFollow the latest news on the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
Modeling the impact
In the latest report, researchers aimed to model the likely impact of interventions in place on reducing loss of life. The team used real-time daily data from the European Centre of Disease Control (ECDC) on the number of deaths in 11 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
The models focused on reproductive number—the average number of new infections generated by each infected person. It was assumed that changes in reproductive number are an immediate response to these interventions being implemented, rather than broader gradual changes in behavior. Overall, the models estimate that countries have managed to reduce their reproductive number.
The team's analysis shows that with the current interventions remaining in place, that measures across all 11 countries will have averted between 21,000 and 120,000 deaths up to 31 March. They add that many more deaths will be averted by keeping interventions in place until transmission drops to low levels.
"Our results suggest that interventions such as social distancing or lockdowns have already saved many lives and will continue to save lives," explained Professor Axel Gandy, Chair of Statistics within the Department of Mathematics. "The impact of the pandemic is extreme—but it would have been much worse without the interventions. Keeping interventions in place is crucial for controlling it."
In addition to reducing deaths, the latest report estimates that between 7 and 43 million people have been infected with the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) across all 11 countries up to 28th March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population.
Given the lag of 2-3 weeks between when transmission changes occur and when their impact can be observed in trends in deaths, it may still be too early to show for most of the 11 countries that recent interventions have been effective.
The researchers stress that the results are strongly driven by the data from countries with more advanced epidemics, and earlier interventions. It is critical, they explain, that the current social distancing measures remain in place, and trends in cases and deaths are closely monitored in the coming days and weeks to provide reassurance that transmission of the virus is slowing.
Professor Christl Donnelly, Professor of Statistical Epidemiology within the School of Public Health, said: "Europeans, like many people elsewhere, have changed their lives profoundly in recent weeks. This report makes clear early evidence of the benefits of these social distancing measures. By keeping our distance from each other, we limit the opportunities for the virus to spread and reduce the risks of illness and even death among those around us."
Professor Neil Ferguson, Director of J-IDEA at Imperial, added: "This analysis show that the interventions European countries have put in place have significantly slowed the spread of COVID-19. However, it is not yet clear whether or how quickly these measures will cause the numbers of new cases to decline. Data collected in the next two weeks will be crucial to refining our assessment of this key point."
Report author Dr. Swapnil Mishra, a Research Associate within the School of Public Health, said: "We implement a novel scientific model of the epidemic within a robust statistical framework. It is a fully Bayesian analysis, so we do not just look at a single scenario, but rather thousands of plausible scenarios and counterfactuals. Our analysis suggests in these difficult times interventions are required and necessary to keep the pandemic in control."
Explore furtherFollow the latest news on the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
More information: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries: www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global- … e-analysis/covid-19/
Trump calls it a COVID-19 fix.
Now lupus patients can't get their drug
by Lisa Gutierrez, MARCH 31, 2020
Now lupus patients can't get their drug
by Lisa Gutierrez, MARCH 31, 2020
Credit: CC0 Public Domain
Before Aisha Kelley headed to the pharmacy last week, she heard from a fellow lupus patient that she might have trouble getting her prescription filled.
Her medication, hydroxychloroquine, sold by the brand name Plaquenil, keeps her body from turning against her. It is considered the most important drug for lupus patients, but now is also being investigated as a possible treatment for the new coronavirus.
Before Plaquenil, Kelley's children had to help her shower and dress because the autoimmune disease made her legs wobbly like Jell-O.
Before Plaquenil, sitting on the sofa exhausted her.
Before Plaquenil, her thick, shiny hair fell out in clumps.
At the Price Chopper pharmacy in Mission, Kan., the pharmacist told her she could only have a 10-day supply, not her usual 30-day.
"Well, do you know when you're going to get it?" Kelley asked him.
He couldn't tell her.
Pharmacies across the country have run out of the medication used by millions of lupus and rheumatoid arthritis patients, a drug many of them have taken daily for years.
Hydroxychloroquine started selling out after President Donald Trump touted it as a possible "game changer" treatment for the coronavirus. A French study released this month suggested that the drug, along with the antibiotic azithromycin, could be effective in treating COVID-19 patients.
Now supplies have dried up. And some patients are considering rationing their daily dosages, or skipping some days altogether, as health advocates and physicians caution them not to panic.
"My fear is I will be put in the hospital, and I don't want to go into the hospital," said Misty Helm, a 48-year-old lupus patient in Lexington, Mo.
She was diagnosed in 2004 after years of trying to keep weight on her body and watching her hands and feet swell up like sausages as she worked 22 years in the automotive industry, including a decade at Ford's Claycomo plant in Kansas City.
"It's not a fun disease," she said.
Reports have surfaced that people are stockpiling the drug. Now Missouri pharmacy officials have cautioned health care providers to stop prescribing the drug for a use it's not approved for.
Pharmacy boards across the country have reported that doctors are hoarding the drugs by writing prescriptions for themselves and family members, The Associated Press reported.
Several states, including Kentucky, Ohio, Nevada, Texas, and now Missouri, have issued restrictions or guidelines on how the drugs should be prescribed.
"Prescribing hydroxychloroquine, chloroquine and azithromycin for family, friends and co-workers in anticipation of a COVID-19 related illness can significantly impact drug supplies and may lead to improper use," said a joint statement last week from the Missouri State Board of Registration for the Healing Arts, and the Missouri Board of Pharmacy.
Because people scooped it up to use for coronavirus, Kelley now has enough of the little white pills—including ones she hasn't taken yet from her last refill—to last her for about two weeks.
"I'm nervous. I'm not going to lie," Kelley said.
Last week the Lupus Foundation of America, American College of Rheumatology, American Academy of Dermatology, and the Arthritis Foundation urged the White House task force and governors across the country to step in.
The Food and Drug Administration has approved hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine only for treating lupus, rheumatoid arthritis and malaria, the groups said in a joint statement, which noted their support for "rigorous clinical trials" to investigate the drugs for COVID-19 use.
"Already today, many of our patients are not able to fill their prescriptions, due to major shortages of hydroxychloroquine, with validated reports across the country of pharmacies having depleted their supplies and half of the drugs' manufacturers reporting back orders," they wrote.
After the French study came out, "we called around to our regional pharmacies and every pharmacy had several hundred tablets of Plaquenil available," said Alfred Kim, a rheumatologist and director of the Lupus Clinic at Washington University in St. Louis.
"But the issue then came afterwards, where social media, even state leaders, have made hydroxychloroquine ... have called it a cure. This obviously skyrocketed interest in Plaquenil."
Based upon limited anecdotal data, both hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are being used to treat hospitalized coronavirus patients around the world, including the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
And though it has not approved the drugs specifically to treat COVID-19, the FDA quickly approved clinical trials underway in Minnesota and New York.
Trump tweeted on March 22: "HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE & AZITHROMYCIN, taken together, have a real chance to be one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine. The FDA has moved mountains—Thank You! Hopefully they will BOTH (H works better with A, International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents) ... be put in use IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE ARE DYING, MOVE FAST, and GOD BLESS EVERYONE!"
"We saw it blow up over the weekend because President Trump keeps talking about it," said Amy Ondr, president of the Heartland Chapter of the Lupus Foundation of America, which covers Missouri and eastern Kansas.
"It's being prescribed off-label, and it shouldn't be. There is no approved use for this for COVID-19, though some physicians are still prescribing it to patients. We're getting a lot of questions like 'what if we run out?' We don't give medical advice."
But she does know what can happen to lupus patients who don't use their medication. It's called a lupus flair, "where their disease activity goes up," Ondr said. "That's when you can get damage to organs.
"Plaquenil kind of helps maintain their disease, so that is their fear, that if they go off the drug or they have to start cutting back on the dosage that they'll go into a lupus flair which potentially could be life-threatening for them."
Kim said stock has now "dwindled near zero and the supply chain hasn't quite caught up yet."
You can't get Plaquenil without a prescription. "It's definitely physicians and other health care providers, such as dentists, that are prescribing this," he said. "And there have been reports, which I have been able to confirm, unfortunately, of several prescribers who have been hoarding it.
"In my view this is an unethical use of the powers that they have to be able to leverage prescription medicines to treat certain diseases. Here in this specific case, the data is so weak that justification to treat COVID-19 patients is poor.
"But on top of that, there's absolutely no data whatsoever that supports its use as a preventative. So that's what people are using it for, as a preventative ... overinterpreting results that are already compromised due to study design issues."
The four health advocacy groups asked the government to work with the pharmaceutical industry to ramp up production and make 90-day supplies available on an ongoing basis to patients using the drugs for their approved use.
Kim said several drugmakers have already said they are going to make more. His clinic has put in a request to Novartis, which announced it is donating up to 130 million doses of generic hydroxychloroquine for use in clinical trials for treating COVID-19.
"We don't want to come across also as sounding like we don't want this drug to go to people with COVID-19. Of course we do," said Ondr. "We just want to have a little bit of responsibility here of what's happening."
Helm said as soon as she got an email from the Lupus Foundation warning her about the shortage she called her pharmacy in Lexington, but it was too late. They told her they didn't have any more Plaquenil and couldn't tell her when they would get more.
Helm said this has never happened before.
"It's frustrating because they had to know this was going to cause a shortage and that other people who are taking it were going to be affected," she said.
Her phone had been ringing so much all week that La Tanya Pitts-Lipprand of Kansas City did something she never does.
"Normally I don't get on Facebook like this. However, the last couple of days I've been getting a lot of calls concerning the announcement they're going to be using, in some cases, Plaquenil, for the virus," she said in a video she posted on the Facebook page of Marlene's Kaleidoscope, a lupus nonprofit she started in 2017.
Pitts-Lapprand, who is 52, was diagnosed with lupus nearly 30 years ago. When she went to CVS to get her usual three-month supply of Plaquenil a couple weekends ago, the pharmacist limited her to just one month because there wasn't enough.
In the video she talked about taking phone calls from fearful patients, "worried about not being able to get their medicine at this time. I want everybody to understand, we will get through this.
"Today I got four calls about people with their fears and concerns and they're talking about rationing out their medicine, like take it today but not take it tomorrow or cut it in half, or hold onto it until they feel sick and then have to take it.
"I am not a doctor. I am somebody who has been having lupus for over 27 years. And I personally don't think that's a good idea."
Ondr has gotten the same calls.
"This is a drug that very many lupus patients are on, sometimes it's first-line drug for people who are diagnosed with lupus. So they've been on it for a long time," said Ondr. "They're panicking. They're running out. The pharmacies don't have it."
Kim is trying to tamp down the panic among his patients, reassuring them that more is on the way.
He's also telling them to try mail-order outlets, which might have more stock. One company, Express Scripts, "has done a great job of trying to shore up supplies," he said.
The caveat: That advice is based on information that changes nearly every day. "The situation is so dynamic and changing," he said.
"So right now, I think the best thing (for patients) to do is to continue taking the medicine until they run out. Be in communication with their prescriber, usually their rheumatologist, to get a better understanding of the lay of the land."
In the meantime, Pitts-Lipprand has launched a one-woman campaign, knowing that stress is not good for anyone living with lupus. Given stay-at-home orders in the Kansas City area right now, she can't meet one-on-one with anyone right now. But she'll be back soon on Facebook.
"I want everyone to calm down," she said.
Before Aisha Kelley headed to the pharmacy last week, she heard from a fellow lupus patient that she might have trouble getting her prescription filled.
Her medication, hydroxychloroquine, sold by the brand name Plaquenil, keeps her body from turning against her. It is considered the most important drug for lupus patients, but now is also being investigated as a possible treatment for the new coronavirus.
Before Plaquenil, Kelley's children had to help her shower and dress because the autoimmune disease made her legs wobbly like Jell-O.
Before Plaquenil, sitting on the sofa exhausted her.
Before Plaquenil, her thick, shiny hair fell out in clumps.
At the Price Chopper pharmacy in Mission, Kan., the pharmacist told her she could only have a 10-day supply, not her usual 30-day.
"Well, do you know when you're going to get it?" Kelley asked him.
He couldn't tell her.
Pharmacies across the country have run out of the medication used by millions of lupus and rheumatoid arthritis patients, a drug many of them have taken daily for years.
Hydroxychloroquine started selling out after President Donald Trump touted it as a possible "game changer" treatment for the coronavirus. A French study released this month suggested that the drug, along with the antibiotic azithromycin, could be effective in treating COVID-19 patients.
Now supplies have dried up. And some patients are considering rationing their daily dosages, or skipping some days altogether, as health advocates and physicians caution them not to panic.
"My fear is I will be put in the hospital, and I don't want to go into the hospital," said Misty Helm, a 48-year-old lupus patient in Lexington, Mo.
She was diagnosed in 2004 after years of trying to keep weight on her body and watching her hands and feet swell up like sausages as she worked 22 years in the automotive industry, including a decade at Ford's Claycomo plant in Kansas City.
"It's not a fun disease," she said.
Reports have surfaced that people are stockpiling the drug. Now Missouri pharmacy officials have cautioned health care providers to stop prescribing the drug for a use it's not approved for.
Pharmacy boards across the country have reported that doctors are hoarding the drugs by writing prescriptions for themselves and family members, The Associated Press reported.
Several states, including Kentucky, Ohio, Nevada, Texas, and now Missouri, have issued restrictions or guidelines on how the drugs should be prescribed.
"Prescribing hydroxychloroquine, chloroquine and azithromycin for family, friends and co-workers in anticipation of a COVID-19 related illness can significantly impact drug supplies and may lead to improper use," said a joint statement last week from the Missouri State Board of Registration for the Healing Arts, and the Missouri Board of Pharmacy.
Because people scooped it up to use for coronavirus, Kelley now has enough of the little white pills—including ones she hasn't taken yet from her last refill—to last her for about two weeks.
"I'm nervous. I'm not going to lie," Kelley said.
Last week the Lupus Foundation of America, American College of Rheumatology, American Academy of Dermatology, and the Arthritis Foundation urged the White House task force and governors across the country to step in.
The Food and Drug Administration has approved hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine only for treating lupus, rheumatoid arthritis and malaria, the groups said in a joint statement, which noted their support for "rigorous clinical trials" to investigate the drugs for COVID-19 use.
"Already today, many of our patients are not able to fill their prescriptions, due to major shortages of hydroxychloroquine, with validated reports across the country of pharmacies having depleted their supplies and half of the drugs' manufacturers reporting back orders," they wrote.
After the French study came out, "we called around to our regional pharmacies and every pharmacy had several hundred tablets of Plaquenil available," said Alfred Kim, a rheumatologist and director of the Lupus Clinic at Washington University in St. Louis.
"But the issue then came afterwards, where social media, even state leaders, have made hydroxychloroquine ... have called it a cure. This obviously skyrocketed interest in Plaquenil."
Based upon limited anecdotal data, both hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are being used to treat hospitalized coronavirus patients around the world, including the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
And though it has not approved the drugs specifically to treat COVID-19, the FDA quickly approved clinical trials underway in Minnesota and New York.
Trump tweeted on March 22: "HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE & AZITHROMYCIN, taken together, have a real chance to be one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine. The FDA has moved mountains—Thank You! Hopefully they will BOTH (H works better with A, International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents) ... be put in use IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE ARE DYING, MOVE FAST, and GOD BLESS EVERYONE!"
"We saw it blow up over the weekend because President Trump keeps talking about it," said Amy Ondr, president of the Heartland Chapter of the Lupus Foundation of America, which covers Missouri and eastern Kansas.
"It's being prescribed off-label, and it shouldn't be. There is no approved use for this for COVID-19, though some physicians are still prescribing it to patients. We're getting a lot of questions like 'what if we run out?' We don't give medical advice."
But she does know what can happen to lupus patients who don't use their medication. It's called a lupus flair, "where their disease activity goes up," Ondr said. "That's when you can get damage to organs.
"Plaquenil kind of helps maintain their disease, so that is their fear, that if they go off the drug or they have to start cutting back on the dosage that they'll go into a lupus flair which potentially could be life-threatening for them."
Kim said stock has now "dwindled near zero and the supply chain hasn't quite caught up yet."
You can't get Plaquenil without a prescription. "It's definitely physicians and other health care providers, such as dentists, that are prescribing this," he said. "And there have been reports, which I have been able to confirm, unfortunately, of several prescribers who have been hoarding it.
"In my view this is an unethical use of the powers that they have to be able to leverage prescription medicines to treat certain diseases. Here in this specific case, the data is so weak that justification to treat COVID-19 patients is poor.
"But on top of that, there's absolutely no data whatsoever that supports its use as a preventative. So that's what people are using it for, as a preventative ... overinterpreting results that are already compromised due to study design issues."
The four health advocacy groups asked the government to work with the pharmaceutical industry to ramp up production and make 90-day supplies available on an ongoing basis to patients using the drugs for their approved use.
Kim said several drugmakers have already said they are going to make more. His clinic has put in a request to Novartis, which announced it is donating up to 130 million doses of generic hydroxychloroquine for use in clinical trials for treating COVID-19.
"We don't want to come across also as sounding like we don't want this drug to go to people with COVID-19. Of course we do," said Ondr. "We just want to have a little bit of responsibility here of what's happening."
Helm said as soon as she got an email from the Lupus Foundation warning her about the shortage she called her pharmacy in Lexington, but it was too late. They told her they didn't have any more Plaquenil and couldn't tell her when they would get more.
Helm said this has never happened before.
"It's frustrating because they had to know this was going to cause a shortage and that other people who are taking it were going to be affected," she said.
Her phone had been ringing so much all week that La Tanya Pitts-Lipprand of Kansas City did something she never does.
"Normally I don't get on Facebook like this. However, the last couple of days I've been getting a lot of calls concerning the announcement they're going to be using, in some cases, Plaquenil, for the virus," she said in a video she posted on the Facebook page of Marlene's Kaleidoscope, a lupus nonprofit she started in 2017.
Pitts-Lapprand, who is 52, was diagnosed with lupus nearly 30 years ago. When she went to CVS to get her usual three-month supply of Plaquenil a couple weekends ago, the pharmacist limited her to just one month because there wasn't enough.
In the video she talked about taking phone calls from fearful patients, "worried about not being able to get their medicine at this time. I want everybody to understand, we will get through this.
"Today I got four calls about people with their fears and concerns and they're talking about rationing out their medicine, like take it today but not take it tomorrow or cut it in half, or hold onto it until they feel sick and then have to take it.
"I am not a doctor. I am somebody who has been having lupus for over 27 years. And I personally don't think that's a good idea."
Ondr has gotten the same calls.
"This is a drug that very many lupus patients are on, sometimes it's first-line drug for people who are diagnosed with lupus. So they've been on it for a long time," said Ondr. "They're panicking. They're running out. The pharmacies don't have it."
Kim is trying to tamp down the panic among his patients, reassuring them that more is on the way.
He's also telling them to try mail-order outlets, which might have more stock. One company, Express Scripts, "has done a great job of trying to shore up supplies," he said.
The caveat: That advice is based on information that changes nearly every day. "The situation is so dynamic and changing," he said.
"So right now, I think the best thing (for patients) to do is to continue taking the medicine until they run out. Be in communication with their prescriber, usually their rheumatologist, to get a better understanding of the lay of the land."
In the meantime, Pitts-Lipprand has launched a one-woman campaign, knowing that stress is not good for anyone living with lupus. Given stay-at-home orders in the Kansas City area right now, she can't meet one-on-one with anyone right now. But she'll be back soon on Facebook.
"I want everyone to calm down," she said.
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