Child care facilities can be safe and are essential: new Case Western Reserve study

Researchers outline recommendations to maintain safety standards during the pandemic

CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERSITY

Research News

 

Cleveland - Child care programs can be safe within the context of low community transmission of COVID-19, according to new research from Case Western Reserve University, based on data from child care programs throughout Ohio.

The study took place from Aug. 15 to Nov. 20, during a timeframe of relatively low community transmission of COVID-19. The team found COVID-19 infection rates at child care programs have been low as a result of:

• clear and comprehensive state guidelines for mitigating transmission within child care settings;
• streamlined reporting of cases to monitor trends;
• resources to support adherence to state guidelines; and
• high compliance with these guidelines by child care workers and families.

The Case Western Reserve study was funded by the Ohio Bureau of Workers' Compensation (BWC) and supported by the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services (ODJFS). The study relied on a sample of child care facilities that mirrors a mix of urban, suburban, and rural settings found across the country, offering insight into child care experiences nationally.

Additional findings from the ongoing study will provide another look as community transmission rates rise, with data collection continuing until the end of December. These new findings will be released in early 2021.

"We all have seen reports from across the country of vast numbers of parents--mostly women--dropping out of the workforce during the pandemic to care for their children as schools and child care facilities closed," said Darcy Freedman, professor of Population and Quantitative Health Sciences at the Case Western Reserve School of Medicine and director of the Mary Ann Swetland Center for Environmental Health, who served as the principal investigator of the study. "How to reopen and stay open safely is important to tens of thousands of families across the state and hundreds of thousands of families across the country."

The findings show that child care programs in Ohio may have had higher readiness to handle COVID-19 than other sectors of the economy because of already-existing standards designed to promote safe and healthy environments, Freedman said. These, combined with statewide infection control guidelines adopted with high compliance by child care workers and families, resulted in lower levels of COVID-19 transmission within child care settings during the study's initial phase through early November.

But Freedman cautioned that additional supports, such as steady access to affordable personal protective equipment (PPE) and sanitizing materials, may be needed for child care programs to remain vigilant as the COVID-19 epidemic continues.

Case Western Reserve researchers note that public health officials anticipate that even with the distribution of a vaccine, communities across the country may continue to see consistent low to moderate community transmission rates through 2021.

From the start of the pandemic in March 2020 until Nov. 13, less than 1% of all COVID-19 cases in Ohio were among child care workers and children affiliated with child care programs, based on incident reporting from child care programs to ODJFS. During most of the study's timeframe, COVID-19 positivity rates in Ohio were below the 5% threshold used to establish low risk of community transmission. COVID-19 positivity rates in Ohio began rising above 5% starting Oct. 20.

"Maintaining safety within child care programs requires capacity for staff and families to fully adhere to mitigation strategies, both within child care programs and outside in the community," Freedman said.

More than 6,000 child care programs are licensed in the state. Pre-pandemic, these facilities cared for more than 500,000 children each day. The Case Western Reserve survey of parents participating in this study noted that shuttering child care programs due to COVID-19 transmission would have the following results:

• Nearly 75% of families would have to reduce their work hours.
• More than half of families--59%--would need one person in the household to leave the workforce to stay home with children.

Key recommendations based on the study findings:

• Maintain child care capacity to fully comply with COVID-19 mitigation strategies;
• Develop a supply chain for affordable personal protective equipment and cleaning materials, allowing child care programs to uphold rigorous hygiene and sanitizing procedures;
• Standardize communication about COVID-19 disseminated through child care programs;
• Expand workforce pipeline for child care staffing during the pandemic.

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About the study:

The study is based on statewide incident reporting of COVID-19 from all child care programs and more in-depth analysis among a sample of 46 child care programs operating in the 10 Ohio counties that account for about two-thirds of all child care programs statewide. These programs are located in: Ashtabula, Butler, Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Licking, Lucas, Montgomery, Stark and Summit counties. Data were collected from child care staff, administrators and parents or family caregivers from Aug. 15 - Nov. 20, 2020.

About Case Western Reserve University:

Case Western Reserve University is one of the country's leading private research institutions. Located in Cleveland, we offer a unique combination of forward-thinking educational opportunities in an inspiring cultural setting. Our leading-edge faculty engage in teaching and research in a collaborative, hands-on environment. Our nationally recognized programs include arts and sciences, dental medicine, engineering, law, management, medicine, nursing and social work. About 5,100 undergraduate and 6,700 graduate students comprise our student body. Visit case.edu to see how Case Western Reserve thinks beyond the possible.

Community-based COVID-19 testing site highlight importance of understanding the virus'

One in four kids tested positive, with minorities impacted at higher rate

CHILDREN'S NATIONAL HOSPITAL

Research News

 

WASHINGTON - (December 18, 2020) A new study looking at the results of testing children for COVID-19 through a Children's National Hospital community-based testing site found that one in four patients had a positive test. The findings, reported online Dec. 18 in The Journal of Pediatrics, reinforce that children and young adults are impacted by the virus more than originally believed, and that the continued understanding of their role in transmitting COVID-19 is essential to getting the virus under control.

Of the 1,445 patients tested at the specimen collection site for SARS-CoV-2 virus between March 21 and May 16, 2020, the median age was 8 years old, and more than 34% of positive patients were Hispanic, followed by non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic white. The daily positivity rate increased over the study period, from 5.4% during the first week to a peak of 47.4% in May. Children and adolescents were referred to the testing site because of risk of exposure or mild symptoms.

"We knew that community-based testing sites were key in minimizing exposure risk to other patients and health care workers, preserving PPE, centralizing specimen collection services, mitigating acute care site overcrowding and informing our community of the burden caused by this disease," says Joelle Simpson, M.D., medical director of Emergency Preparedness at Children's National.

Drive-through/walk-up testing sites outside of a traditional acute care setting have emerged around the world to meet the need for testing mildly ill or asymptomatic individuals. In March, Children's National Hospital opened a drive-up/walk-up location - one of the first exclusively pediatric testing sites for the virus in the U.S. -- where primary care doctors in the Washington, D.C., region could refer young patients for COVID-19 specimen collection and testing.

"At first, children were not the target of testing initiatives, but it is clear that making testing available to pediatric patients early was a very important part of the pandemic response," says Meghan Delaney, D.O., M.P.H., chief of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine at Children's National. "Not only can children get severe disease, they can be part of positive clusters with the adults they live with. The knowledge we have gained by testing many thousands of children over the pandemic has provided key information."

Compared with non-Hispanic white children and after adjustments for age, sex and distance of residence from specimen collection site, minority children had a higher likelihood of infection.

"We wanted to identify the features of children tested at this site who did not require acute medical care and be able to compare demographic and clinical differences between patients who tested positive and negative for COVID-19," says Dr. Simpson.

Patients with COVID-19 exposure and symptoms were more likely to have a positive test than patients without symptoms. This supports contact tracing for symptomatic cases and testing as an important tool in detecting and containing community spread, according to the study's findings. Although most patients were referred because they lived with a family member with high risk for exposure or infection, this was not associated with positive test results.

"The impact of this virus is broad and affects planning for children, especially as schools and childcare centers work to reopen," Dr. Simpson says. "In order to guide the development of measures to control the ongoing pandemic, we need better understand the transmission potential of these mildly symptomatic or well children and young adults."

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Media contact:
Ariana Perez | ariana.perez@childrensnational.org | 301-244-6731

About Children's National Hospital

Children's National Hospital, based in Washington, D.C., celebrates 150 years of pediatric care, research and commitment to community. Volunteers opened the hospital in 1870 with 12 beds for children displaced after the Civil War. Today, 150 years stronger, it is among the nation's top 10 children's hospitals. It is ranked No. 1 for newborn care for the fourth straight year and ranked in all specialties evaluated by U.S. News & World Report. Children's National is transforming pediatric medicine for all children. In 2020, construction will be complete on the Children's National Research & Innovation Campus, the first in the nation dedicated to pediatric research. Children's National has been designated three times in a row as a Magnet® hospital, demonstrating the highest standards of nursing and patient care delivery. This pediatric academic health system offers expert care through a convenient, community-based primary care network and specialty outpatient centers in the D.C., metropolitan area, including the Maryland and Northern Virginia suburbs. Children's National is home to the Children's National Research Institute and Sheikh Zayed Institute for Pediatric Surgical Innovation and is the nation's seventh-highest NIH-funded children's hospital. It is recognized for its expertise and innovation in pediatric care and as a strong voice for children through advocacy at the local, regional and national levels.

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Chemical composition of wild potato relative contributes to its resistance to pathogen

AMERICAN PHYTOPATHOLOGICAL SOCIETY

Research News

IMAGE: COLONIZATION AND MULTIPLICATION OF PECTOBACTERIUM BRASILIENSE PB1692 view more 

CREDIT: JANAK R. JOSHI, LINXING YAO, AMY O. CHARKOWSKI, AND ADAM L. HEUBERGER

Potato is the most consumed vegetable crop worldwide. However, despite its importance, potato production is severely affected by high susceptibility to a wide range of microbial pathogens, such as bacteria from the genus Pectobacterium, which cause various devastating diseases in potato and produce important economic losses.

Even though resistance to Pectobacterium species is limited within cultivated potato varieties, it is known that a potato wild relative (S. chacoense) is resistant to them; however, until recently, the underlying mechanisms of this phenomenon remained unknown.

In a recent study published in the Molecular Plant-Microbe Interactions (MPMI) journal, scientists from Colorado State University (CSU) revealed that metabolites from S. chacoense contribute to disease resistance by altering the pathogenic behavior of Pectobacterium brasiliense, rather than inhibiting its growth or killing it.

"We tested if chemicals extracted from the wild potato affect the behavior of the bacterium and found that these inhibited their ability to produce the enzymes that degrade plant cell walls. The chemicals also intercepted their ability to communicate with each other. To use a battle analogy, the wild potato plant chemicals intercepted the bacteria's missiles, they cut off their radio communications, and together this encouraged the bacteria to remain friendly neighbors," explained Adam Heuberger, a CSU Associate Professor involved in the research.

"This wild potato is also resistant to insects, viruses, and fungi. The question is always why, and then how, we can translate this information to improve society. There is much to learn by studying wild relatives of food and ornamental plants," Heuberger added.

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For more information about this research, read "Metabolites from Wild Potato Inhibit Virulence Factors of the Soft Rot and Blackleg Pathogen Pectobacterium brasiliense" published in MPMI in November.

Water and genes flow between the two largest Baltic salmon rivers

UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI

Research News

 

IMAGE: JUVENILE SALMON FROM THE TORNIO RIVER. view more 

CREDIT: VILLE VÄHÄ

Salmon from upstream reaches of the two northernmost Baltic rivers are different from downstream salmon. A recent study found that upstream salmon from the large Tornio and Kalix Rivers in Finland and Sweden are genetically distinct and migrate at different times and ages than their downstream counterparts. However, there seems to be no such distinction between salmon from these two neighbouring rivers.

Traffic is busy below the surface of the Baltic Sea and rivers flowing into it. Starting in early summer, mature salmon migrate from the sea into their home rivers to spawn. The study by the University of Helsinki, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) and Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU) found that salmon destined to spawn far upstream entered the Tornio (Torne in Swedish) River at an earlier date during their spawning migration.

Morever, salmon heading to the upper parts of the river system had almost always spent more than one year at the sea. This is relevant for fisheries, as salmon grow larger the more time they spend at sea. Old and large salmon are particularly prized catches, and essential for the stocks' wellbeing: large salmon produce the most offspring. How to preserve this kind of diversity is an important consideration in the management and conservation of the largest wild Baltic salmon stocks.

"Salmon that entered the Tornio River earliest in the summer appeared to be mostly on their way to the upper reaches. This suggests that there is good reason to study and closely follow how fishing early in the season may affect the upstream populations," says lead author of the article Antti Miettinen, from the Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki.

Sal­mon don't fol­low bor­ders

The Tornio River acts as the border between Finland and Sweden, whereas the neighbouring Kalix River is located entirely in Sweden. These rivers host by far the largest remaining wild Baltic salmon stocks.

Surprisingly, the study found no clear genetic differences separating salmon from the two rivers. This may partly be explained by the rivers being connected to each other by one of the largest bifurcations in the world. About half of the water from the Swedish Torne River flows into the Kalix River through the bifurcation. From the salmon's perspective, it makes the rivers one vast system to navigate in. In practice, salmon and their genes have a way of reaching the other river.

"The bifurcation and intriguing genetic similarity between salmon from these rivers highlight the significance of cross-border collaboration in conserving and managing this important salmon stock," Miettinen says.

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The research was funded by fishing license revenues from the Tornio/Torne River, The Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management, The Swedish Research Council Formas, The Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Societas pro Fauna et Flora Fennica, The Betty Väänänen Fund from The Kuopio Naturalists' Society (KLYY), The Raija and Ossi Tuuliainen Foundation (Raija ja Ossi Tuuliaisen Säätiö), and The Baltic Sea Fund from The Finnish Foundation for Nature Conservation (Suomen Luonnonsuojelun Säätiö).

 

Researchers deconstruct ancient Jewish parchment using multiple imaging techniques

Analyses of the materials in the scrolls helps put the object into an historical context and guides conservators in future restoration efforts

FRONTIERS

Research News

 

IMAGE: UV FLUORESCENCE EXAMINATION view more 

CREDIT: THE AUTHORS

A picture may be worth a thousand words, but capturing multiple images of an artifact across the electromagnetic spectrum can tell a rich story about the original creation and degradation of historical objects over time. Researchers recently demonstrated how this was possible using several complementary imaging techniques to non-invasively probe a Jewish parchment scroll. The results were published in the journal Frontiers in Materials.

A team of scientists from Romania's National Institute for Research and Development in Optoelectronics extracted details about the manuscript's original materials and manufacturing techniques employing various spectroscopic instruments. These specialized cameras and devices capture images that the human eye normally can't see.

"The goal of the study was ... to understand what the passing of time has brought upon the object, how it was degraded, and what would be the best approach for its future conservation process," explained Dr Luminita Ghervase, a co-author on the paper and research scientist at the institute.

The manuscript the team investigated was a poorly preserved but sacred scroll containing several chapters of the Book of Esther from the Hebrew Bible. An artifact from a private collection, little was known of the object's provenance or history.

"The use of complementary investigation techniques can shed light on the unknown history of such an object," Ghervase noted. "For some years now, non-invasive, non-destructive investigation techniques are the first choice in investigating cultural heritage objects, to comply with one of the main rules of the conservation practice, which is to not harm the object."

One of the more common imaging techniques is multispectral imaging, which involves scanning an object within specific parts of the electromagnetic spectrum. Such images can show otherwise invisible details about the manuscript's wear and tear. Different ultraviolet modes, for example, revealed a dark stain on the scroll that might indicate a repair using an organic material such as a resin, because the spot strongly absorbs UV light.

A related technique, hyperspectral imaging, was used to determine the material basis of the ink on the aged parchment. The scientists detected two distinct types of ink, another indication that someone may have attempted to repair the item in the past. They also used a computer algorithm to help characterize the spectral signals of individual pixels to further discriminate the materials - a method that holds promise for reconstructing the text itself.

"The algorithm used for materials classification has the potential of being used for identifying traces of the ink to infer the possible original shape of the letters," Ghervase said.

The team also employed an imaging technique known as x-ray fluorescence (XRF), which can identify the kinds of chemicals used in both the ink and the manufacturing of the parchment. For instance, the XRF found rich concentrations of zinc, a chemical often linked to the bleaching process, but possibly another indication of past restoration efforts. Finally, the scientists employed a Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer to identify other chemicals present using an infrared light source to measure absorption. Specifically, the FTIR analysis provided an in-depth view regarding the deterioration rate of the collagen in the scroll, which is made from animal skin, among other insights.

Employing these various imaging techniques to dissect the parchment could help conservators restore the object closer to its original condition by identifying the materials used to create it.

"They can wisely decide if any improper materials had been used, and if such materials should be removed," Ghervase said. "Moreover, restorers can choose the most appropriate materials to restore and preserve the object, ruling out any possible incompatible materials."

CAPTION

Hyperspectral imaging

CAPTION

Details of the scroll, showing various types of degradation

Droughts, viruses and road networks: Trends that will impact our forests

A new UCPH study assembled an array of experts to highlight major trends that will impact the world's forests, and the people living around them, in the decade ahead; these trends include drought, viral outbreaks and vast infrastructure expansions across

FACULTY OF SCIENCE - UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN

Research News

 

Earth's forests are indispensable for both humans and wildlife: they absorb CO2, provide food for large parts of the world's population and are home to all sorts of animals.

However, forest conservation measures are lagging in many countries, says Laura Vang Rasmussen, an assistant professor at the University of Copenhagen's Department of Geosciences and Nature Management.

"It is critical for all countries - especially those with poor economic conditions, to prioritize forests and have forest conservation plans. Without the adoption of conservation strategies, droughts and viral outbreaks could have severe consequences on forests and humans alike," she says.

Rasmussen, along with fellow researchers from the University of Manchester, is behind a new Nature-study in which 24 experts from the around the world have ranked the most significant trends that will affect the world's forests over the coming decade.

Drought and new viral outbreaks

In Denmark, we have seen an increase in the number of summers with scant rainfall, and in the rest of the world - particularly on the US West Coast - droughts have been responsible for massive and devastating forest fires. The new study argues that this trend will continue:

"When we lose forest, due to drought for example, the risk of spreading viruses like coronavirus increases. When forest fires disturb natural ecosystems, disease carrying animals such as bats or rats flee from their charred ecosystems into towns and villages. And, as we have seen with the coronavirus pandemic, viral outbreaks have enormous consequences on global health and economy," explains Rasmussen.

Humans are migrating from the countryside to cities, with more people on the way

More people wanting to move from rural areas into the cities can have both positive and negative consequences for the world's forests.

"It could be that the amount of forest increases as more and more farmers abandon their livelihoods in favour of higher wage urban jobs. This would allow forests room to grow. Conversely, we run the risk that ballooning urban populations will increase demand for marketable crops, which will result in more forests being cleared for agriculture," says Laura Vang Rasmussen.

Furthermore, the planet's human population is projected to increase to roughly 8.5 billion by 2030. This will result in an increased demand for meat, cereals, vegetables, etc., meaning that more forests will need to be cleared to accommodate for fields and meat production farms and facilities.

25 million kilometres of new road networks worldwide

By 2050, global road networks are projected to expand by roughly 25 million kilometres.

This is likely to have a positive effect on human mobility, allowing people to shuttle between cities with ease and more readily move and sell goods.

However, the downside of road building is the inevitably of having to clear forestland for roadbed.

Besides having to look after forests for the sake of the environment and wildlife, forest conservation also relates to poverty, concludes Laura Vang Rasmussen:

"It is problematic that forest conservation, agriculture and poverty are seen as distinct from one another. Indeed, the three factors influence each other, as strategies to increase agricultural production can negatively impact forests. On the other hand, an increase in forested areas makes it more difficult for agriculture to produce enough food. As such, we hope that our research is able to contribute towards highlighting the complex dynamics between agricultural production, deforestation, poverty and food security."

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FACTS - The process of the study:

136 individuals from 23 different countries submitted 98 suggestions about which trends will be dominant vis-à-vis the world's forests and global poverty over the next decade. University of Copenhagen researchers then established a panel of 24 experts - researchers and representatives from a host of organisations, including CIFOR, Resources for the Future, Rights and Resources Initiative and the Ford Foundation - to rank the five most important global forest trends and how human-forest interaction will play out over the next decade

It's electrifying! This is how Earth could be entirely powered by sustainable energy

TRINITY COLLEGE DUBLIN

Research News

 

Can you imagine a world powered by 100% renewable electricity and fuels? It may seem fantasy, but a collaborative team of scientists has just shown this dream is theoretically possible - if we can garner global buy-in.

The newly published research, led by Professor James Ward from the University of South Australia and co-authored by a team including Luca Coscieme from Trinity College Dublin, explains how a renewable future is achievable.

The study, published in the international journal, Energies, explores what changes are needed in our energy mix and technologies, as well as in our consumption patterns, if we are to achieve 100% renewability in a way that supports everyone, and the myriad of life on our planet.

The fully renewable energy-powered future envisioned by the team would require a significant "electrification" of our energy mix and raises important questions about the potential conflict between land demands for renewable fuel production.

Explaining the work in some detail, Luca Coscieme, Research Fellow in Trinity's School of Natural Sciences, said:

"Firstly, the high fuel needs of today's high-income countries would have to be reduced as it would require an unsustainably vast amount of land to be covered with biomass plantations if we were to produce enough fuel to satisfy the same levels.

"Additionally, our research shows that we would need to radically 'electrify' the energy supply of such countries - including Ireland - with the assumption that these changes could supply 75% of society's final energy demands. We would also need to adopt technology in which electricity is used to convert atmospheric gases into synthetic fuels.

"We very much hope that the approach designed in this research will inform our vision of sustainable futures and also guide national planning by contextualising energy needs within the broader consumption patterns we see in other countries with energy and forest product consumption profiles that--if adopted worldwide--could theoretically be met by high-tech renewably derived fuels. Countries such as Argentina, Cyprus, Greece, Portugal and Spain are great examples in this regard.

"Even so, the success of this green ideal will be highly dependent on major future technological developments, in the efficiency of electrification and in producing and refining new synthetic fuels. Such a scenario is still likely to require the use of a substantial - albeit hopefully sustainable - fraction of the world's forest areas."

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What if clean air benefits during COVID-19 shutdown continued post-pandemic?

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY'S MAILMAN SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH

Research News

 

A new study by Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health researchers poses a hypothetical question: What if air quality improvements in New York City during the spring 2020 COVID-19 shutdown were sustained for five years without the economic and health costs of the pandemic? They estimate cumulative benefits of clean air during this period would amount to thousands of avoided cases of illness and death in children and adults, as well as associated economic benefits between $32 to $77 billion. The study's findings are published in the journal Environmental Research.

The researchers leveraged the unintended "natural experiment" of cleaner air in New York City during the COVID-19 shutdown to simulate the potential future health and economic benefits from sustained air quality improvements of a similar magnitude. They do not frame this study as an estimate of the benefits of the pandemic. Rather they offer this hypothetical clean air scenario as an aspirational goal for policies to reduce emissions, largely from fossil fuel combustion.

Exploratory analyses found that neighborhoods with higher percentages of low-income residents or higher percentages of Black or Latinx residents tended to have proportionally higher benefits from reduced PM2.5 concentrations when compared to neighborhoods with lower levels of poverty or Black or Latinx populations. However, this does not mean that the disparity in health outcomes across neighborhoods would be eliminated under this scenario because underlying risk factors would still remain. The researchers also caution that limited air quality monitors and available data during the shutdown period constrained their ability to assess the impact of improved air quality on health disparities across neighborhoods.

Air quality improvements during the New York City spring shutdown were the result of an estimated 60-percent decline in automobile traffic, as well as declines in air traffic, construction, restaurant operation, and electricity generation.

"Air quality improvements from the shutdown happened as the result of a tragic situation. However, our hypothetical clean air scenario could be achieved through air pollution and climate mitigation policies, including those that support low carbon modes of transportation and reduce emissions in other sectors," says study first author Frederica Perera, DrPH, PhD, director of translational research at the Columbia Center for Children's Environmental Health and professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia Mailman School.

The researchers estimated a citywide 23-percent reduction in fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) concentrations during the COVID-19 shutdown period (March 15-May 15, 2020) compared to the average level for those months in 2015-2018 (the business-as-usual period) using air quality monitoring data from the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. Based on 2020 data, they extrapolated ambient levels of PM2.5 for a five-year period. They then used BenMAP, a publicly available computer tool supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, to estimate the number of avoided air pollution-related illnesses and deaths and quantify their economic value using methods the researchers developed in earlier research. Specifically, they estimate potential avoided cases of infant and adult mortality, adverse birth outcomes, autism spectrum disorder, and childhood asthma.

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Co-authors include Alique Berberian and Thomas Matte at Columbia Mailman; David Cooley and Elizabeth Shenaut at Abt Associates, Durham, North Carolina; and Hollie Olmstead and Zev Ross at Zev Ross Spatial Analysis, Ithaca, NY.

This study was supported by grants from the Environmental Protection Agency (RD83615401) and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (ES09600), the John and Wendy Neu Foundation, the John Merck Fund, and New York Community Trust.

Climate change: threshold for dangerous warming will likely be crossed between 2027-2042

Scientists introduce a new way to predict global warming, reducing uncertainties considerably

MCGILL UNIVERSITY

Research News

 

The threshold for dangerous global warming will likely be crossed between 2027 and 2042 - a much narrower window than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimate of between now and 2052. In a study published in Climate Dynamics, researchers from McGill University introduce a new and more precise way to project the Earth's temperature. Based on historical data, it considerably reduces uncertainties compared to previous approaches.

Scientists have been making projections of future global warming using climate models for decades. These models play an important role in understanding the Earth's climate and how it will likely change. But how accurate are they?

Dealing with uncertainty

Climate models are mathematical simulations of different factors that interact to affect Earth's climate, such as the atmosphere, ocean, ice, land surface and the sun. While they are based on the best understanding of the Earth's systems available, when it comes to forecasting the future, uncertainties remain.

"Climate skeptics have argued that global warming projections are unreliable because they depend on faulty supercomputer models. While these criticisms are unwarranted, they underscore the need for independent and different approaches to predicting future warming," says co-author Bruno Tremblay, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at McGill University.

Until now, wide ranges in overall temperature projections have made it difficult to pinpoint outcomes in different mitigation scenarios. For instance, if atmospheric CO2 concentrations are doubled, the General Circulation Models (GCMs) used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), predict a very likely global average temperature increase between 1.9 and 4.5C - a vast range covering moderate climate changes on the lower end, and catastrophic ones on the other.

A new approach

"Our new approach to projecting the Earth's temperature is based on historical climate data, rather than the theoretical relationships that are imperfectly captured by the GCMs. Our approach allows climate sensitivity and its uncertainty to be estimated from direct observations with few assumptions," says co-author Raphael Hebert, a former graduate researcher at McGill University, now working at the Alfred-Wegener-Institut in Potsdam, Germany.

In a study for Climate Dynamics, the researchers introduced the new Scaling Climate Response Function (SCRF) model to project the Earth's temperature to 2100. Grounded on historical data, it reduces prediction uncertainties by about half, compared to the approach currently used by the IPCC. In analyzing the results, the researchers found that the threshold for dangerous warming (+1.5C) will likely be crossed between 2027 and 2042. This is a much narrower window than GCMs estimates of between now and 2052. On average, the researchers also found that expected warming was a little lower, by about 10 to 15 percent. They also found, however, that the "very likely warming ranges" of the SCRF were within those of the GCMs, giving the latter support.

"Now that governments have finally decided to act on climate change, we must avoid situations where leaders can claim that even the weakest policies can avert dangerous consequences," says co-author Shaun Lovejoy, a professor in the Physics Department at McGill University. "With our new climate model and its next generation improvements, there's less wiggle room."

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About the study

"An observation-based scaling model for climate sensitivity estimates and global projections to 2100" by Raphael Hebert, Shaun Lovejoy, and Bruno Tremblay was published in Climate Dynamics.

DOI: http://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05521-x

About McGill University

Founded in Montreal, Quebec, in 1821, McGill University is Canada's top ranked medical doctoral university. McGill is consistently ranked as one of the top universities, both nationally and internationally. It is a world-renowned institution of higher learning with research activities spanning two campuses, 11 faculties, 13 professional schools, 300 programs of study and over 40,000 students, including more than 10,200 graduate students. McGill attracts students from over 150 countries around the world, its 12,800 international students making up 31% of the student body. Over half of McGill students claim a first language other than English, including approximately 19% of our students who say French is their mother tongue.

http://www.mcgill.ca/newsroom/

Scientists discover a new type of brain cell that could help detect distance

DURHAM UNIVERSITY

Research News

 

IMAGE: DR. STEVEN POULTER AND DR. COLIN LEVER IN THE LAB DISCOVERING THE CELLS. view more 

CREDIT: DR. STEVEN POULTER AND DR. COLIN LEVER

The existence of GPS-like brain cells, which can store maps of the places we've been, like our kitchen or holiday destination, was already widely known, but this discovery shows there is also a type of brain cell sensitive to the distance and direction of objects that can store their locations on these maps.

The research, led by Dr Steven Poulter and Dr Colin Lever from Durham University, and co-directed by Dr Thomas Wills from the University of Central London (UCL), found that Vector Trace cells can track how far we have travelled and remember where things are, which are added to our memory map of the places we have been.

Dr Steven Poulter said: "The discovery of Vector Trace cells is particularly important as the area of the brain they are found in is one of the first to be attacked by brain disorders such as Alzheimer's disease, which could explain why a common symptom and key early 'warning sign' is the losing or misplacement of objects."

Dr Lever added: "It looks like Vector Trace cells connect to creative brain networks which help us to plan our actions and imagine complex scenarios in our mind's eye. Vector trace cells acting together likely allow us to recreate the spatial relationships between ourselves and objects, and between the objects in a scene, even when those objects are not directly visible to us."

Brain cells that make up the biological equivalent of a satellite-navigation system were first discovered <> by Professors John O'Keefe, Edvard Moser, May-Britt Moser. Their discovery shed light on one of neurosciences great mysteries - how we know where we are in space - and won them the 2014 Nobel Prize in Medicine.

Speaking about the discovery, Professor John O'Keefe said: "I'm very impressed. Not only have they discovered a new type of brain cell, the Vector Trace cell, but their analysis of its properties is exhaustive and compelling. This discovery sheds considerable light on this important but enigmatic structure of the brain, supporting the idea that it is indeed the memory system we have always believed it to be."

Professor Lord Robert Winston added: "This fascinating work on Vector Trace cells uncovers further levels of our memory, so often lost with brain damage and ageing. This discovery gives a possible insight into certain kinds of dementia which are now of massive importance.

He added: "The idea that loss or change of such cells might be an early biomarker of disease could lead to earlier diagnosis and more effective therapies for one of the most intractable medical conditions."

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