It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Tuesday, January 19, 2021
Journal of Clinical Sleep Medicine collection highlights 15 years of scientific discovery
DARIEN, IL - Editors of the Journal of Clinical Sleep Medicine have identified some of the most significant articles in the publication's history, publishing new commentaries on them in a special 15th anniversary collection. The 15 commentaries from associate editors and members of the journal's editorial board describe the impact of the selected articles both at the time of their publication and today.
"The collection highlights some of the most influential publications in clinical sleep research over the past 15 years," JCSM Editor-in-Chief Dr. Nany Collop said. "These studies underscore the remarkable breadth of our field and display the intellectual curiosity and scientific rigor of talented sleep researchers."
First published by the American Academy of Sleep Medicine in 2005, JCSM has grown significantly from its first year, when 22 original articles were published. In 2020 the monthly journal published more than 200 scientific investigations and case reports. The 15th anniversary collection highlights peer-reviewed, original research papers on sleep disorders such as obstructive sleep apnea, insomnia, narcolepsy, and restless legs syndrome. The selected papers also cover other wide-ranging topics including opioids, school start times, caffeine, melatonin, and the impact of binge-watching on sleep.
The most highly cited article is on sleep deprivation: "Behavioral and physiological consequences of sleep restriction," written by Banks and Dinges in 2007. In the commentary, AASM Past President Dr. Nathaniel Watson and sleep scientist Hans Van Dongen, who has a doctorate in chronobiology and sleep, write that this landmark review "crystallized the problem of short sleep from basic science to epidemiology."
Collop and the journal's founding editor, Dr. Stuart Quan, assessed the most-cited and viewed articles, which associate editors helped narrow to the final selection of 15 studies. An expert on each manuscript topic was invited to prepare a commentary on the paper, describing its impact and influence since its original publication.
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The 15th anniversary collection -- comprising the 15 selected articles and the related commentaries along with an introduction from Drs. Collop and Quan -- is available on the JCSM website.
The monthly, peer-reviewed Journal of Clinical Sleep Medicine is the official publication of the American Academy of Sleep Medicine, a professional membership society that advances sleep care and enhances sleep health to improve lives. The AASM encourages patients to talk to their doctor about sleep problems and visit SleepEducation.org for more information about sleep, including a searchable directory of AASM-accredited sleep centers.
Managing large-scale construction projects to avoid cost overruns
News from the Journal of Marketing
AMERICAN MARKETING ASSOCIATION
Researchers from University of Stavanger, University of Melbourne, and University of Wisconsin-Madison published a new paper in the Journal of Marketing that examines how major projects undertaken by temporary organizations can be better managed so that cost overruns are minimized.
The study forthcoming in the Journal of Marketing is titled "Mobilizing the Temporary Organization: The Governance Roles of Selection and Pricing" and is authored by Elham Ghazimatin, Erik Mooi, and Jan Heide.
When consumers return to the skies again, they may do so in Boeing's 787 Dreamliner. But the project, or "temporary organization," created to make this plane a reality ran much over-budget and created significant dissatisfaction among Boeing's customers. Such cost overruns are a common outcome of major engineering and construction projects. In fact, studies show that nine out of ten have significant cost overruns, with overruns above 100 percent quite common. The implications of cost overruns go beyond financial metrics and can include reputational damage, litigation, and future overreliance on rigid and formalized relationship features.
Managing suppliers and subcontractors, who can run into the hundreds in major projects, is an enormously difficult task. It necessitates considerable coordination and monitoring in a context where parties often have not worked together, they lack shared procedures or rules, and there is a great need to get up to speed quickly. As one of Boeing's engineers put it, "The importance of thorough planning, accounting for all interdependencies, cannot be overestimated."
Through studying 429 completed construction projects, the researchers find that supplier selection and pricing format decisions that reflect key characteristics of the project, such as the size of the project, duration, and type of customer, are best at reducing a significant part of the cost overruns observed. They conduct "what-if" analyses to show that the reductions in costs can be substantial. Ghazimatin adds that "We also show that the benefits from getting selection right outweigh those that result from getting pricing right, suggesting that selection should be, relatively speaking, a higher strategic priority for a firm. "
This study is particularly useful to managers who wish to minimize cost overruns in projects. Pricing and selection decisions, which are typically fixed at the start of a project, are predictive of cost overruns that can only be observed after a project is completed, typically after many months or years. The pricing and selection aspects studied--fixed vs. variable pricing and selection on price vs. ability--were proposed by industry representatives and thus have direct managerial relevance. Results also show that simple managerial heuristics, such as only relying on price-based selection or deploying fixed pricing, are unlikely to be effective at minimizing cost overruns.
Households with children reported purchasing larger quantities of and higher-fat fluid milk compared to households without children, according to research in JDS CommunicationsTM
Champaign, IL, January 15, 2021 - American dairy consumers are often influenced by a variety of factors that can affect their buying habits. These factors include taste, preference, government information, cultural background, social media, and the news. In an article appearing in JDS Communications, researchers found that households that frequently bought food for children are interested in dairy as part of their diet and purchased larger quantities of fluid milk and more fluid milk with a higher fat content.
To assess the purchasing habits of households that purchase food for children versus those that do not, researchers from Purdue University and Oklahoma State University collected data through an online survey tool, Qualtrics. Respondents, required to be 18 years of age or older, were asked a variety of questions to collect demographic information and dairy product purchasing behavior from US residents. Kantar, an online panel database, was used to obtain participants through their opt-in panel database. "The sample was targeted to be representative of the US population in terms of sex, age, income, education, and geographical region of residence as defined by the US Census Bureau (2016)," said author Mario Ortez, PhD student at Purdue University in West Lafayette, IN, USA.
The survey received a total of 1,440 responses to be assessed. Per the results, 511 respondents indicated they frequently purchased food specifically for children, whereas 929 indicated they did not. Of the 1,440 respondents, 521 indicated that they had at least one child in the household, and 912 indicated they did not have children in their household. The study found that households that frequently purchased food for children generally purchased larger quantities of fluid milk, along with their chosen fluid milk having a higher fat content. Households with children also bought yogurt more frequently than other households.
Other findings from the survey indicated that cheese and milk are most often purchased for part of a meal, and yogurt is bought most frequently as a snack. The survey also found that households largely reported reviewing product attributes of price, expiration date, and nutritional information (in that order) on egg, milk, and meat labels.
"This study demonstrates the continued belief among American consumers that dairy products are an important part of a healthy diet fed to children. The popularity of whole milk, cheese, and yogurt within these households suggests that children enjoy the taste of dairy products and are happy to have them served during regular meals and at snack time," said Matthew Lucy, PhD, Editor-in-Chief of JDS Communications, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA. These findings can influence product marketing efforts and stakeholder decisions in the dairy industry.
"Future studies can build on this work by evaluating whether there is a spillover effect from purchasing specifically for children and the general dairy and protein product purchasing habits of those households," said Dr. Courtney Bir, PhD, coauthor of the study and assistant professor, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, USA.
Policy makers and companies can use this information to help inform product labeling and better target necessary segments to increase product awareness and better the dairy industry as a whole.
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Snakes evolve a magnetic way to be resistant to venom
Certain snakes have evolved a unique genetic trick to avoid being eaten by venomous snakes, according to University of Queensland research.
Associate Professor Bryan Fry from UQ's Toxin Evolution Lab said the technique worked in a manner similar to the way two sides of a magnet repel each other.
"The target of snake venom neurotoxins is a strongly negatively charged nerve receptor," Dr Fry said.
"This has caused neurotoxins to evolve with positively charged surfaces, thereby guiding them to the neurological target to produce paralysis.
"But some snakes have evolved to replace a negatively charged amino acid on their receptor with a positively charged one, meaning the neurotoxin is repelled.
"It's an inventive genetic mutation and it's been completely missed until now.
"We've shown this trait has evolved at least 10 times in different species of snakes."
CAPTION
The Pakistan black cobra, a deadly predator of other snakes.
The researchers found that the Burmese python - a slow-moving terrestrial species vulnerable to predation by cobras - is extremely neurotoxin resistant.
"Similarly, the South African mole snake, another slow-moving snake vulnerable to cobras, is also extremely resistant," Dr Fry said.
"But Asian pythons which live in trees as babies, and Australian pythons which do not live alongside neurotoxic snake-eating snake, do not have this resistance.
"We've long known that some species - like the mongoose - are resistant to snake venom through a mutation that physically blocks neurotoxins by having a branch-like structure sticking out of the receptor, but this is the first time the magnet-like effect has been observed."
"It has also evolved in venomous snakes to be resistant to their own neurotoxins on at least two occasions."
The discovery was made after the establishment of UQ's new $2 million biomolecular interaction facility, the Australian Biomolecular Interaction Facility (ABIF).
"There's some incredible technology at the ABIF allowing us to screen thousands of samples a day," Dr Fry said.
"That facility means we can do the kinds of tests that would have just been science fiction before, they would have been completely impossible."
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The research has been published in Proceedings of the Royal Society B (DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.2703).
The Australian Biomolecular Interaction Facility (ABIF) was funded through a $1 million Australian Research Council Linkage Infrastructure, Equipment and Facilities (LIEF) grant, with $1 million contributing funding from UQ, Griffith University, Queensland University of Technology, James Cook University, and the University of Sunshine Coast.
Just like humans trying to stick to New Year's resolutions, guppies have varying levels of self-control, a new study shows.
Researchers from the University of Exeter and Ghent University studying the behaviours of Trinidadian guppies tested "inhibitory control" (suppressing unhelpful impulses or urges). The tiny fish first learned how to swim into a cylinder to get food - then a cover was removed to make the cylinder transparent.
Inhibitory control was measured by whether a guppy resisted the urge to swim directly towards the food - bumping into the cylinder - or still swam around, relying on previous learning.
The findings revealed "consistent individual variation" - some guppies had more self-control than others.
"Studies of inhibitory control have traditionally focussed on a few bird and mammal species, but we now know it exists in a wide range of animals," said Dr Alessandro Macario, of Exeter's Centre for Research in Animal Behaviour.
"As well as finding consistent differences between individual guppies, the population of guppies we studied were, on average, half as able to control impulses as a different strain of guppies tested in a previous study under similar conditions.
"We can't be certain about the causes of this difference, but it's possible that the strain we studied had evolved in different social and environmental conditions - with less need for inhibitory control."
The study examined captive females, with each guppy tested multiple times.
In total, the fish inhibited the urge to swim directly at the food in 28.5% of trials.
No improvement was seen over time, but the researchers say this might have occurred if the guppies had been tested for longer.
Professor Darren Croft, also of the University of Exeter, said: "Our study is a first step towards understanding how inhibitory control has evolved in guppies.
"Guppies live in small rivers alongside predators so, for example, they might need the ability to hide and resist the urge to leave that hiding place to get food.
"The next step in this research is to examine the extent to which this trait affects guppies' chances of survival or reproduction."
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The paper, published in the Journal of Fish Biology, is entitled: "Intraspecific variation in inhibitory motor control in guppies, Poecilia reticulata."
Researchers trace geologic origins of Gulf of Mexico 'super basin' success
The Gulf of Mexico holds huge untapped offshore oil deposits that could help power the U.S. for decades.
The energy super basin's longevity, whose giant offshore fields have reliably supplied consumers with oil and gas since the 1960s, is the result of a remarkable geologic past - a story that began 200 million years ago among the fragments of Pangea, when a narrow, shallow seaway grew into an ocean basin, while around it mountains rose then eroded away.
The processes that shaped the basin also deposited and preserved vast reserves of oil and gas, of which only a fraction has been extracted. Much of the remaining oil lies buried beneath ancient salt layers, just recently illuminated by modern seismic imaging. That's the assessment of researchers at The University of Texas at Austin, who reviewed decades of geological research and current production figures in an effort to understand the secret behind the basin's success.
Because of its geological history, the Gulf of Mexico remains one of the richest petroleum basins in the world. Despite 60 years of continuous exploration and development, the basin's ability to continue delivering new hydrocarbon reserves means it will remain a significant energy and economic resource for Texas and the nation for years to come, said lead author John Snedden, a senior research scientist at the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics (UTIG).
"When we looked at the geologic elements that power a super basin - its reservoirs, source rocks, seals and traps - it turns out that in the Gulf of Mexico, many of those are pretty unique," he said.
The research was featured in a December 2020 special volume of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin focused on the world's super basins: a small number of prolific basins that supply the bulk of the world's oil and gas.
According to the paper, the geologic elements that have made the Gulf of Mexico such a formidable petroleum resource include a steady supply of fine- and coarse-grained sediments, and salt: thick layers of it buried in the Earth, marking a time long ago when much of the ancient sea in the basin evaporated.
Geologically, salt is important because it can radically alter how petroleum basins evolve. Compared to other sedimentary rocks, it migrates easily through the Earth, creating space for oil and gas to collect. It helps moderate heat and keeps hydrocarbon sources viable longer and deeper. And it is a tightly packed mineral that seals oil and gas in large columns, setting up giant fields.
"The Gulf of Mexico has a thick salt canopy that blankets large portions of the basin and prevented us for many years from actually seeing what lies beneath," Snedden said. "What has kept things progressing is industry's improved ability to see below the salt."
According to the paper, the bulk of the northern offshore basin's potential remains in giant, deepwater oil fields beneath the salt blanket. Although reaching them is expensive and enormously challenging, Snedden believes they represent the best future for fossil fuel energy. That's because the offshore -- where many of the giant fields are located -- offers industry a way of supplying the world's energy with fewer wells, which means less energy expended per barrel of oil produced.
Snedden said there is still much to learn about hydrocarbons beneath the Gulf of Mexico, how they got there and how they can be safely accessed. This is especially true in the southern Gulf of Mexico, which was closed to international exploration until 2014. One of the few publicly available datasets was a series of UTIG seismic surveys conducted in the 1970s. Now, a wealth of prospects is emerging from new seismic imaging of the southern basin's deepwater region.
"When you look at recent U.S. oil and gas lease sales, Mexico's five-year plan, and the relatively small carbon footprint of the offshore oil and gas industry, I think it's clear that offshore drilling has an important future in the Gulf of Mexico," Snedden said.
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Snedden's research was conducted within UTIG for the Gulf Basin Depositional Synthesis project (which he directs). The project has been continuously funded by an industry consortium since 1995. UTIG is a unit of the Jackson School of Geosciences.
New fossil provides clarity to the history of Alligatoridae
Families are complicated. For members of the Alligatoridae family, which includes living caimans and alligators - this is especially true. They are closely related, but because of their similarity, their identification can even stump paleontologists.
But after the recent discovery of a partial skull, the caimans of years past may provide some clarity into the complex, and incomplete, history of its relatives and their movements across time and space.
Michelle Stocker, an assistant professor of vertebrate paleontology in Virginia Tech's Department of Geosciences in the College of Science; Chris Kirk, of the University of Texas at Austin; and Christopher Brochu, of the University of Iowa, have identified a 42-million-year-old partial skull that may have belonged to one of the last prehistoric caimans to roam the United States.
"Any fossil that we find has unique information that it contributes to understanding the history of life," said Stocker, who is an affiliated faculty member of the Fralin Life Sciences Institute and the Global Change Center. "From what we have, we are able to understand a little bit more about the evolutionary history of caimans and the alligatorid group, which includes alligators and caimans."
Their findings were published in PeerJ, an open access peer-reviewed scientific mega journal covering research in the biological and medical sciences.
The fossil was discovered in 2010 at Midwestern State University's Dalquest Desert Research Site, which includes extensive exposures of the Devil's Graveyard Formation, a geologic formation in the Trans-Pecos volcanic field of West Texas.
The Devil's Graveyard Formation preserves fossils from the latter portion of the Eocene epoch, a period of time covering 15 million years of prehistory.
In 2011, Stocker and the team returned to the site to collect a key bone that remained in the hard sandstone block that once encapsulated the caiman skull.
"The Devil's Graveyard Formation provides a unique window into the evolution of North American vertebrates during the middle and late Eocene," said Kirk. "There are a host of extinct species that are only known from the Devil's Graveyard, including several primates, rodents, lizards, and now this new fossil caiman."
What they discovered was a partial skull. At the time of the discovery, paleontologists were convinced that the skull came from a closer relative to alligators than to caimans.
"When you are at the early diversification of groups, their features aren't as differentiable," said Stocker. "It was harder to tell if this is more closely related to caimans or to alligators because those two are really closely related already. And the differences between them are subtle, especially early in their evolutionary history."
The skull's braincase was a key component in the identification of the fossil. The braincase encases and protects the brain from injury. Since no two species have the same braincase, finding one can provide some much needed information for paleontologists.
After further investigation into this fossil's braincase, Stocker and the team were able to determine that this was, without a doubt, a caiman.
The caiman was deemed to be 42 million years old by using a combination of investigative techniques, including radiometric dating, biochronology, and biostratigraphy, where paleontologists use the relative order of the fossilized animals to find out how old the rocks are.
With the age of the fossil and its location in mind, paleontologists are able to add to an ever-growing story about a large biogeographic range contraction, or a climate-related extirpation, that occurred millions of years ago.
Roughly 56 million years ago, the planet was experiencing temperatures so hot and methane levels so high that no polar ice caps could form. For large cool-blooded reptiles like alligators and caimans, it was their time to thrive and soak up the sun. In fact, the conditions were so favorable that these early reptiles roamed as far north as northern Canada.
"The presence of a fossil caiman in the Devil's Graveyard, about 1,200 kilometers north of where caimans are found today, really says something about how different the climate of West Texas was in the middle Eocene", said Kirk.
But one epoch later, in the Oligocene, the entire world was experiencing cooler temperatures, forcing many species that require warm and humid conditions into more restricted geographic ranges.
Caiman populations, in particular, are now only found in South and Central America. Although, a small number of caimans have been found outside of this range and are thought to be invasive species.
"This caiman seems out of place," said Brochu."Caimans today are a South American radiation, and data from modern forms, including DNA, would suggest a very simple single origin from a North American ancestor. This new form, along with some older North American fossil caimans, suggests a far more complex early history with multiple crossings of the seaway that separated North and South America until fairly recently."
There is even more to know about caiman history. Since the specimen was an incomplete skull, and far from a complete skeleton, paleontologists still have some knowledge gaps to fill about their relationships.
"If we can find another individual, we will get a better sense of its relationships, and it might be able to say something about what variation could be present in this taxon, or how they grow, or where else they might be found," said Stocker. "This is a one-and-done kind of fossil right now. Hopefully there are more out there."
The fossil will be housed at the Texas Vertebrate Paleontology Collections at the University of Texas at Austin where it will be preserved and maintained in perpetuity.
There is more research to be done on other fossils that have been retrieved from Central and South American specimens, as well. Those fossils, in particular, are critical for understanding the early southern record of caiman history and clearing up the morphological and chronologic gaps that currently exist in the caiman fossil record.
In the end, all that lies on the horizon is to do more fieldwork, collect more fossils, and conduct more study.
Without museums, this identification couldn't have been possible. When paleontologists find new fossils, they must travel to museums, where they compare the new fossils with other specimens that have been collected.
Stocker maintains that the preservation and maintenance that museums do is just one reason that they need to be supported.
"Museums are important for science and for everybody who wants to understand our shared evolutionary history," said Stocker. "And collaboration is the way that science moves forward."
WSU scientists identify contents of ancient Maya drug containers
PULLMAN, Wash. - Scientists have identified the presence of a non-tobacco plant in ancient Maya drug containers for the first time.
The Washington State University researchers detected Mexican marigold (Tagetes lucida) in residues taken from 14 miniature Maya ceramic vessels.
Originally buried more than 1,000 years ago on Mexico's Yucatán peninsula, the vessels also contain chemical traces present in two types of dried and cured tobacco, Nicotiana tabacum and N. rustica. The research team, led by anthropology postdoc Mario Zimmermann, thinks the Mexican marigold was mixed with the tobacco to make smoking more enjoyable.
The discovery of the vessels' contents paints a clearer picture of ancient Maya drug use practices. The research, which was published today in Scientific Reports, also paves the way for future studies investigating other types of psychoactive and non-psychoactive plants that were smoked, chewed, or snuffed among the Maya and other pre-Colombian societies.
"While it has been established that tobacco was commonly used throughout the Americas before and after contact, evidence of other plants used for medicinal or religious purposes has remained largely unexplored," Zimmermann said. "The analysis methods developed in collaboration between the Department of Anthropology and the Institute of Biological Chemistry give us the ability to investigate drug use in the ancient world like never before."
Zimmermann and colleagues' work was made possible by NSF-funded research which led to a new metabolomics-based analysis method that can detect thousands of plant compounds or metabolites in residue collected from containers, pipes, bowls and other archaeological artifacts. The compounds can then be used to identify which plants were consumed.
Previously, the identification of ancient plant residues relied on the detection of a limited number of biomarkers, such as nicotine, anabasine, cotinine and caffeine.
"The issue with this is that while the presence of a biomarker like nicotine shows tobacco was smoked, it doesn't tell you what else was consumed or stored in the artifact," said David Gang, a professor in WSU's Institute of Biological Chemistry and a co-author of the study. "Our approach not only tells you, yes, you found the plant you're interested in, but it also can tell you what else was being consumed."
Zimmermann helped unearth two of the ceremonial vessels that were used for the analysis in the spring of 2012. At the time, he was working on a dig directed by the National Institute of Anthropology and History of Mexico on the outskirts of Mérida where a contractor had uncovered evidence of a Maya archeological site while clearing lands for a new housing complex
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PARME staff archaeologists excavating cist burial at the Tamanache site, Mérida, Yucatan.
Zimmermann and a team of archeologists used GPS equipment to divide the area into a checkerboard-like grid. They then hacked their way through dense jungle searching for small mounds and other telltale signs of ancient buildings where the remains of important people such as shamans are sometimes found.
"When you find something really interesting like an intact container it gives you a sense of joy," Zimmermann said. "Normally, you are lucky if you find a jade bead. There are literally tons of pottery sherds but complete vessels are scarce and offer a lot of interesting research potential."
Zimmermann said the WSU research team is currently in negotiations with several institutions in Mexico to get access to more ancient containers from the region that they can analyze for plant residues. Another project they are currently pursuing is looking at organic residues preserved in the dental plaque of ancient human remains.
"We are expanding frontiers in archaeological science so that we can better investigate the deep time relationships people have had with a wide range of psychoactive plants, which were (and continue to be) consumed by humans all over the world," said Shannon Tushingham, a professor of Anthropology at WSU and a co-author of the study. "There are many ingenious ways in which people manage, use, manipulate and prepare native plants and plant mixtures, and archaeologists are only beginning to scratch the surface of how ancient these practices were."
CAPTION
Maya cist burial with typical ceramic offerings - Plate covering the head of the deceased individual and cup placed likely with food.
The end of domestic wine in 17th century Japan
September 1632 document likely shows the order for the last batch of Japanese wine in the Edo period
KUMAMOTO UNIVERSITY
Researchers from Kumamoto University (Japan) have found an Edo period document that clearly indicates the Hosokawa clan, rulers of the Kokura Domain (modern-day Fukuoka Prefecture), completely stopped producing wine in 1632, the year before the shogunate ordered them to move to the Higo Domain (now Kumamoto Prefecture). The researchers believe that the discontinuation of wine production was directly related to this move and because it was considered to be a drink of a religion that was harshly suppressed in Japan at that time, Christianity.
Previous analysis of historical documents revealed that the lord of the Hosokawa clan, Tadatoshi Hosokawa, ordered wine production from 1627 to 1630 for medicinal use. His vassals, who were experienced in various western customs and technologies#mdash;from foods to watches, used black soybeans and wild grapes in their brewing process. Those documents are the earliest known proof of Japanese wine production.
Until now, no historical records regarding wine production after 1631 had been found. Previously, researchers understood there to be a four-year period of Japanese winemaking. Production was thought to be halted because it was a stereotypically Christian drink and making it could have been a dangerous prospect due to the shogunate's strict prohibition of Christianity during the Edo period.
The new document, from September 1632, was found in the Eisei Bunko Library's Hosokawa clan repository and is a clear order for one more batch of wine. A note written on the document by the magistrate dated October 3rd, 1632 (No. 10.7.13) is as follows.
Taroemon Ueda has personally informed the magistrate's office that he received an order from the lord to have wild grapes collected and brought to him for wine production.
Taroemon Ueda was a Hosokawa clan vassal who had training in Western techniques and had been making wine since 1627. Later in the document, the magistrate wrote another note.
[Original Japanese]
がらミ、太郎右衛門へ渡候、
[Rough translation]
Wild grapes were provided to Taroemon.
The document does not say when wine production was completed. However, earlier documents revealed that Taroemon usually took about 10 days to finish making wine, so researchers believe that this batch was probably finished by mid-October 1632 at the latest. On January 18th of the following year, the shogunate ordered the Hosokawa clan to move from the Kokura Domain, where all of the wine was made, to the Higo Domain.
Historical documents related to wine production in the Higo domain have not been found. The researchers believe that the Hosokawa clan stopped making wine as a direct result of their move to a new domain and because wine was heavily associated with Christianity.
Soon after the move to the Higo Domain, the Hosokawa clan faced off with Western-influenced rebels. They were on the front lines of Christian oppression which led to the suppression of the "Shimabara-Amakusa Revolt" in 1637. The tightening prohibition of Christianity, outbreaks of Christian revolts, and the suppression of the revolt brought the history of Japanese domestic wine in the 17th century to a close.
The Eisei Bunko Research Center was established in FY2009 to retain and care for ancestral works of art, literature, and other historical materials of the Hosokawa family, the once daimyo of Kumamoto. In 1964, several pieces from the Hosokawa Mansion in Kumamoto City's Kitaoka Nature Park were entrusted to the Kumamoto University Library. Currently, the collection contains over 100,000 historical documents that the university uses for education and research.
Extreme fire weather
Researchers model the regional impacts of specific anthropogenic activities and their influence on extreme fire weather risk
When the Thomas Fire raged through Ventura and Santa Barbara counties in December 2017, Danielle Touma, at the time an earth science researcher at Stanford, was stunned by its severity. Burning for more than a month and scorching 440 square miles, the fire was then considered the worst in California's history.
Six months later the Mendocino Complex Fire upended that record and took out 717 square miles over three months. Record-setting California wildfires have since been the norm, with five of the top 10 occurring in 2020 alone.
The disturbing trend sparked some questions for Touma, who is now a postdoctoral researcher at UC Santa Barbara's Bren School for Environmental Science & Management.
"Climate scientists knew that there was a climate signal in there but we really didn't understand the details of it," she said of the transition to a climate more ideal for wildfires. While research has long concluded that anthropogenic activity and its products -- including greenhouse gas emissions, biomass burning, industrial aerosols (a.k.a. air pollution) and land-use changes -- raise the risk of extreme fire weather, the specific roles and influences of these activities was still unclear.
Until now. In the first study of its kind, Touma, with fellow Bren School researcher Samantha Stevenson and colleagues Flavio Lehner of Cornell University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and Sloan Coats from the University of Hawaii, have quantified competing anthropogenic influences on extreme fire weather risk in the recent past and into the near future. By disentangling the effects of those man-made factors the researchers were able to tease out the roles these activities have had in generating an increasingly fire-friendly climate around the world and the risk of extreme fire weather in decades to come.
Their work appears in the journal Nature Communications.
"By understanding the different pieces that go into these scenarios of future climate change, we can get a better sense of what the risks associated with each of those pieces might be, because we know there are going to be uncertainties in the future," Stevenson said. "And we know those risks are going to be expressed unequally in different places too, so we can be better prepared for which parts of the world might be more vulnerable."
Warm, Dry and Windy
"To get a wildfire to ignite and spread, you need suitable weather conditions -- you need warm, dry and windy conditions," Touma said. "And when these conditions are at their most extreme, they can cause really large, severe fires."
Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations available from NCAR, the researchers analyzed the climate under various combinations of climate influences from 1920-2100, allowing them to isolate individual effects and their impacts on extreme fire weather risk.
According to the study, heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions (which started to increase rapidly by mid-century) are the dominant contributor to temperature increases around the globe. By 2005, emissions raised the risk of extreme fire weather by 20% from preindustrial levels in western and eastern North America, the Mediterranean, Southeast Asia and the Amazon. The researchers predict that by 2080, greenhouse gas emissions are expected to raise the risk of extreme wildfire by at least 50% in western North America, equatorial Africa, Southeast Asia and Australia, while doubling it in the Mediterranean, southern Africa, eastern North America and the Amazon.
Meanwhile, biomass burning and land-use changes have more regional impacts that amplify greenhouse gas-driven warming, according to the study -- notably a 30% increase of extreme fire weather risk over the Amazon and western north America during the 20th century caused by biomass burning. Land use changes, the study found, also amplified the likelihood of extreme fire weather in western Australia and the Amazon.
Protected by Pollution?
The role of industrial aerosols has been more complex in the 20th century, actually reducing the risk of extreme fire weather by approximately 30% in the Amazon and Mediterranean, but amplifying it by at least 10% in southeast Asia and Western North America, the researchers found.
"(Industrial aerosols) block some of the solar radiation from reaching the ground," Stevenson said. "So they tend to have a cooling effect on the climate.
"And that's part of the reason why we wanted to do this study," she continued. "We knew something had been compensating in a sense for greenhouse gas warming, but not the details of how that compensation might continue in the future."
The cooling effect may still be present in regions such as the Horn of Africa, Central America and the northeast Amazon, where aerosols have not been reduced to pre-industrial levels. Aerosols may still compete with greenhouse gas warming effects in the Mediterranean, western North America and parts of the Amazon, but the researchers expect this effect to dissipate over most of the globe by 2080, due to cleanup efforts and increased greenhouse gas-driven warming. Eastern North America and Europe are likely to see the warming and drying due to aerosol reduction first.
Southeast Asia meanwhile, "where aerosols emissions are expected to continue," may see a weakening of the annual monsoon, drier conditions and an increase in extreme fire weather. risk.
"Southeast Asia relies on the monsoon, but aerosols cause so much cooling on land that it actually can suppress a monsoon," Touma said. "It's not just whether you have aerosols or not, it's the way the regional climate interacts with aerosols."
The researchers hope that the detailed perspective offered by their study opens the door to more nuanced explorations of the Earth's changing climate.
"In the broader scope of things, it's important for climate policy, like if we want to know how global actions will affect the climate," Touma said. "And it's also important for understanding the potential impacts to people, such as with urban planning and fire management."