Suu Kyi to face court after bloody day in Myanmar

AFP 

3/14/2021

Myanmar's ousted civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi is to appear in court on Monday, after one of the country's bloodiest days since the February 1 coup.

© STR Protesters demanding the release of Suu Kyi and the restoration of democracy have taken to the streets across Myanmar every day for around six weeks

At least 38 protesters were killed on Sunday as security forces cracked down on anti-coup protesters, taking the total death toll to more than 120, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP) monitoring group.

© Thet AUNG Lawyer Khin Maung Zaw has said the claims against his client were 'groundless'

Protesters demanding the release of Suu Kyi and the restoration of democracy have taken to the streets across Myanmar every day for around six weeks despite the junta's increasingly forceful attempts to quell the dissent.

Sunday -- the joint deadliest day of unrest along with March 3 -- saw violent clashes between security forces and protesters and the torching of several Chinese-owned factories in a textile-producing district of Yangon, as many protesters believe Beijing to be supportive of the coup.

© STR Live rounds have been used during the crackdowns

State-run television confirmed on Monday that a police officer was shot dead in the city of Bago during a protest.

The Yangon court hearing for Suu Kyi -- who spent more than 15 years in house arrest under previous military rule -- is expected to start by video link around 10 am (0330 GMT), her lawyer Khin Maung Zaw told AFP.

The Nobel laureate faces at least four charges: possessing unlicensed walkie-talkies, violating coronavirus restrictions, breaching telecommunications laws and intent to cause public unrest.

Military authorities have also accused her of accepting illegal payments of $600,000 in cash as well as a large quantity of gold -- allegations her lawyer says are "groundless".

"The ruling junta has showed its teeth and taken its mask off… they are showing their true self," Khin Maung Zaw said of Sunday's violence.

Khin Maung Zaw has complained he has not been allowed to meet Suu Kyi, who has been in custody since the coup, though he said the 75-year-old appeared in good health at her last court appearance, by video link, on March 1.

© STR Security forces have set up barricades across Yangon

- Chinese factories attacked -

Video: Myanmar military coup, protester death toll rises with increased violence (USA TODAY)

The international community is growing ever more alarmed at the bloodshed, but so far the generals have shown no signs of heeding calls for restraint.

The UN's top rights expert on Myanmar Tom Andrews tweeted that he was "heartbroken/outraged" at Sunday's events.

"Junta leaders don't belong in power, they belong behind bars," he wrote.

"Their supply of cash & weapons must be cut now. I appeal to UN member states to heed my call to act."

On Sunday night state media announced that Yangon's massive Hlaing Tharyar township and the neighbouring Shwepyitha township were being put under martial law.

The move came after protesters and security forces clashed violently and five factories -- several of them Chinese-owned -- in Hlaing Tharyar, a garment-producing district, were razed.

Security forces opened fire on demonstrators wielding sticks and knives, and using cut-out trash cans as shields.

Beijing's embassy in Myanmar issued a statement condemning the actions of "destroyers" and urging police to "guarantee the security" of Chinese businesses.

The declaration of martial law means anyone arrested in the two townships faces trial by military tribunal rather than civilian courts, with sentences ranging from three years' hard labour to execution.

The UN envoy for Myanmar Christine Schraner Burgener strongly condemned Sunday's bloodshed, while the former colonial power Britain said it was "appalled" by the use of force "against innocent people."

Last week Andrews, the UN Special Rapporteur on rights in Myanmar, said there was growing evidence that the junta was engaging in crimes against humanity -- including murder, forced disappearances and torture.

The human rights campaign group Amnesty International has also accused the military of using battlefield weapons on unarmed protestors and carrying out premeditated killings.

bur-pdw/je

'You'll have to come through me': Myanmar nun on becoming a symbol of resistance

Siobhan Robbins and Henry Austin 

3/14/2021

Dressed in a white habit and a dark veil, Sister Ann Roza Nu Tawng knelt before Myanmar military forces and told them, "You'll have to come through me."

A picture of her dramatic plea electrified protesters and made headlines around the world, which has been watching an increasingly brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protesters after last month's military coup.

At a rally in the city of Myitkyina last week, Sister Ann Roza, 45, told U.K. broadcaster Sky News that she had pleaded with police "not to beat, not to arrest, not to crack down on the protesters, because the protesters were not doing anything bad — they were just shouting slogans. " (Sky News is owned by Comcast, the parent company of NBC News.)

© Provided by NBC News A nun pleading with police not to harm protesters in Myanmar. (Myitkyina News Journal / AFP - Getty Images)

Asked to leave, she refused. "The police were also kneeling, and they told me they had to do it because this was to stop the protest," she said. "I replied: 'No, if you want to do this, you have to come through me.'"


Moments later, tear gas was fired and gunshots rang out.

With her vision impaired, she was unable to say whether the shots were fired by the officers she spoke with or by members of the military.

As she struggled to breathe, she saw a man who had fallen down in the street. She quickly realized he had been shot.

He was taken to a clinic for treatment, she said, and died later from his injuries. Another person died on the spot, she said.

The sister had already placed herself between the police and protesters in the city on Feb. 28.

In a separate interview with Sky News, Sister Ann Roza said that on that occasion, she "thought today is the day I will die" and that she had "decided to die."

"I thought it would be better that I die instead of lots of people," she said.

Police also opened fire on protesters and beat some of them.

She survived both times. Others have been less fortunate.

Thomas Andrews, the U.N.'s human rights investigator in the country, said Thursday that at least 70 people had been "murdered" since the army seized power Feb. 1 and detained the government's elected leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and much of her party leadership, alleging fraud in a November election that her party won in a landslide.

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Accusing the military junta of perpetrating killings, torture and persecution that may constitute crimes against humanity, Andrews told the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva that more than half of those killed were under age 25. He added that more than 2,000 people had been unlawfully detained.

"The country of Myanmar is being controlled by a murderous, illegal regime," he said.

The coup brought a halt to tentative steps toward democracy in Myanmar, a southeast Asian country of 54 million people, after nearly 50 years of military rule, and it has drawn hundreds of thousands onto the streets.

U.N. investigator: ‘Myanmar is being controlled by a murderous, illegal regime’

Western countries have condemned the military's actions, and some have imposed limited sanctions, but the generals have traditionally shrugged off such diplomatic pressure. They have promised to hold a new election but have not set a date.

Sister Ann Roza said the generals were not protecting the people, who "have to defend themselves."

She pledged to pray for both the military and the protesters, warning that "people are not safe anymore in Myanmar, which used to be a place for happiness."

She added that she would ask "people abroad to pray for us."

"May God bless you," she said. "I salute the fallen souls."

Martial law imposed in parts of Myanmar city as deaths rise

YANGON, Myanmar — Myanmar's ruling junta has declared martial law in parts of the country's largest city as security forces killed more protesters in an increasingly lethal crackdown on resistance to last month's military coup

© Provided by The Canadian Press

At least 38 people were killed Sunday and dozens were injured in one of the deadliest days of the crackdown, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, an independent group tracking the toll of the violence.

Most of those killed — 34 — were in Yangon, where two townships, Hlaing Thar Yar and neighbouring Shwepyitha were being placed under martial law.

Video from Hlaing Thar Yar township showed people running away after gunfire was heard. Those fleeing carried one injured person and tried to revive two others, one who seemed to be dead or dying, the footage from independent Democratic Voice of Burma showed.

Hlaing Thar Yar was the location of 22 civilian deaths Sunday, according to the aid group, which said more than a dozen civilians were wounded and described a large number of junta forces engaged in the township.

Since the takeover six weeks ago, Myanmar has been under a nationwide state of emergency, with its civilian leaders ousted and detained and military leaders in charge of all government. But the announcement on state broadcaster MRTV late Sunday appeared to be the first use of the term martial law since the coup and suggested more direct military control of security, instead of local police.

The announcement said the State Administrative Council acted to enhance security and restore law and order and said the Yangon regional commander has been entrusted with administrative, judicial and military powers in the area under his command.

Four other deaths were reported in Bago, Mandalay, and the northern city of Hpakant in Kachin state, according to the aid group and local media.

In Yangon, video posted on social media showed crowds of people, some wearing hard hats and gas masks, running down a street amid sounds of gunfire. The demonstrators quickly sprayed vapour from fire extinguishers as they retreated — a tactic widely used to smother tear gas and create a vapour screen that makes it harder for police to pursue or shoot demonstrators.

There were also reports of injuries from live rounds and rubber bullets in other parts of Yangon, including Insein district, where billows of black smoke could be seen after security forces reportedly set roadblocks on fire.

In a new tactic, anti-coup demonstrators used the cover of darkness to hold mass candlelight vigils Saturday and Sunday nights in a Yangon commercial area that was usually the scene of their daytime protests. After-dark rallies were also held in Mandalay and elsewhere.

The protest movement has been grounded in non-violent civil disobedience from the start, with marches and general strikes among its main features. But some protesters have advocated stronger, more agile methods of self-defence — such as holding small rallies that are quick to disband and reunite, and devising cover from fire extinguishers and billowing laundry.

On Saturday, the civilian leader of Myanmar’s government in hiding vowed to continue supporting a “revolution” to oust the military leaders who seized power in the Feb. 1 coup. Mahn Win Khaing Than, who was named the acting vice-president by Myanmar's ousted lawmakers and is a member of deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s political party, addressed the public for the first time since the coup.

“This is the darkest moment of the nation and the moment that the dawn is close,” he said in a video posted on the shadow government’s website and social media.

“In order to form a federal democracy, which all ethnic brothers who have been suffering various kinds of oppressions from the dictatorship for decades really desired, this revolution is the chance for us to put our efforts together," he said.

He added: “We will never give up to an unjust military, but we will carve our future together with our united power. Our mission must be accomplished.”

At the end of the message, he flashed the three-finger salute that has become a symbol of resistance to the military rulers.

The aid group's tally of Sunday's victims appeared to raise beyond 100 the number of civilians killed by security forces since the coup. Confirmation is nearly impossible in the country due to the security situation and a crackdown on independent media, but various groups have carefully compiled tallies with similar figures.

The actual death toll is likely higher, as police apparently seized some bodies, and some victims have had serious gunshot wounds that medical staff at makeshift clinics would be hard-pressed to treat. Many hospitals are occupied by security forces, and as a result are boycotted by medical personnel and shunned by protesters.

Police have also aggressively patrolled residential neighbourhoods at night, firing into the air and setting off stun grenades as an intimidation tactic. They have also taken people from their homes in targeted raids with minimal resistance. In at least two known cases, the detainees died in custody within hours of being hauled away.

The Associated Press

The death of Zaw Myat Lynn: allegations torture used on opposition activist in Myanmar


THE GUARDIAN 3/14/2021

Under cover of darkness, the soldiers rolled up outside a school building on the outskirts of Myanmar’s main city, Yangon. It was 1.30am. The military began searching the Suu Vocational College, in the north-west suburb of Shwe Pyi Thar. They moved swiftly from room to room.

© Photograph: Facebook Zaw Myat Lynn, right, posted on Facebook that ‘people should fight the army even if it costs our lives’.

They had come to arrest Zaw Myat Lynn, a prominent community organiser and teacher. He was an activist with the National League for Democracy (NLD), the party of Aung San Suu Kyi. In November, the NLD won a landslide election victory. It was in power until last month, when the military abruptly ended civilian rule.

Zaw Myat Lynn had been at the forefront of local anti-coup protests. He shared graphic videos of soldiers beating and shooting peaceful demonstrators. On Facebook he spoke out in fearless terms against Myanmar’s ruling junta. Its armed enforcers were “terrorists” and “dogs”, he wrote, adding “people should fight the army even if it costs our lives”.

Related: Myanmar: acting civilian leader says 'we must win' as five more protesters die

In his haunting final post, Zaw Myat Lynn live-streamed a pro-democracy rally close to the school. Locals sought to defend themselves from night-time arrest by putting up barricades and making defences out of sandbags. “We must prepare to protect our people,” he said, adding that an unknown number of troops had taken up positions nearby.

The defences didn’t work. The soldiers discovered him in the school compound, where he lived with his wife Phyu Phyu Win. They dragged him away. Zaw Myat Lynn was 46. He taught Japanese at the college; the couple had two children and a 10-year-old granddaughter. He was loaded into a truck and driven off. It was early morning, Monday 8 March.

Twenty-four hours later, his wife was instructed to visit a military hospital in Mingarlardon township, in north Yangon, according to Maung Saungkha, a family friend. There, she was told to identify a body. It was her husband. Officials said she had to cremate his remains as soon as she took delivery of the corpse.

They gave her an official postmortem “report”. It claimed Zaw Myat Lynn had fallen nine metres (30ft) on to a sharp metal fence while trying to escape from custody. This explained his injuries. It was only after collecting his remains two days later that she discovered another explanation. The horrific nature of his injuries supports allegations that Zaw Myat Lynn had been savagely tortured.

Photographs of his body seen by the Guardian give clues to his horrifying final hours. It appears that boiling water or a chemical solution had been poured into his mouth. The tongue was melted, his teeth missing. Facial skin was peeling off. The body had been wrapped up to conceal further traumatic injuries.

These included a stab wound to the abdomen seemingly made by a cross-sectional knife. The wound appears to have been inflicted while he was still alive, and may have been the cause of death. Severe bruising can be seen on the sides of his body, which had been cut open and stitched up.

“All participants in the civil disobedience movement are aware they are in danger. Lynn knew the risks,” one fellow activist, connected to Myanmar’s underground national legislative committee, the CRPH, said. “A lot of young people go out to protest and never come back. We don’t know if they are arrested or dead.”

The activist added: “Lynn was targeted because he was high-profile. The military’s aim is to teach the rest of us a lesson, to say, ‘this is how you will end up’. The strategy won’t work. We are cleverer. We have a lot of social media and ways of reaching the world that we didn’t have before.”

© Provided by The Guardian Protesters hold hands to keep watch during a night-time demonstration against the military coup in Yangon Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Zaw Myat Lynn was the second senior NLD aide to perish as the result of alleged torture, according to Ba Myo Thein, an MP in the now-dissolved upper house. Days earlier, Khin Maung Latt, 58, a local NLD chairman in Yangon, also died in detention. A party leader said pictures showed he had a wound on the back of his head and bruises on his back.

Since the 1 February coup, the military has shot dead more than 80 people, and arrested over 2,100, amid demonstrations across the country and a general strike. Last week, it accused Aung San Suu Kyi of taking bribes worth $1.3m (£934,000) in cash and gold. Her lawyer has dismissed the charges as a “joke”. But they carry a long prison sentence and represent an escalation of the regime’s attempts to silence her.

According to witnesses, the police had carried out previous operations at Zaw Myat Lynn’s township, which is separated from central Yangon by the Hlaing River. On 21 February, officers opened fire on unarmed protesters. “As a police vehicle entered into the street, we tried to stop them. Police suddenly shot a man in the head and then drove away,” said Myint Myat Thu who saw the shooting.

Zaw Myat Lynn had met Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been under arrest since the coup, and worked for her humanitarian foundation. In the months leading up to the coup he had helped the fight against Covid in Myanmar. “He was well respected and well known in the civil disobedience movement,” a fellow activist, who declined to be named, said.

During the 8 March raid at Zaw Myat Lynn’s institute, three students and three local residents were arrested. Computers, vehicles, phones and money at the school were confiscated, according to Ko Min Wai, a teacher volunteer. The school has offered free training courses on computers, language and mechanics to young people in Shwe Pyi Thar.

Photos from the funeral show Zaw Myat Lynn’s wife crying over an open coffin, surrounded by mourners. “It is not possible,” Ko Min Wai said. “I can’t bear this. How could they do this to an unarmed civilian? Even I was in tears after I heard of this shocking death.”

Beijing smothered by hazardous yellow smog
AFP 1 hour ago

Beijing was cloaked by a thick yellow smog on Monday with pollution surging to hazardous levels as a sandstorm swept across China's capital

.

© GREG BAKER Beijing's city government ordered all schools to cancel outside sport and events and advised those with respiratory diseases not to go out

City residents used goggles, masks and hair nets to protect themselves from the choking air, with landmarks including the Forbidden City and the distinctive headquarters of state broadcaster CCTV partly obscured behind an apocalyptic-looking pall of smog.

© GREG BAKER City residents used goggles, masks and hair nets to protect themselves from the choking air

The city government ordered all schools to cancel outside sport and events and advised those with respiratory diseases to stay inside.

The poor air quality was due to a sandstorm from northern Mongolia, carried south by the wind and reducing visibility in Beijing to less than 1,000 metres (3,300 feet), state media reported.

Discussion of the orange haze lit up online discussions -- with more than 54 million views on social media platform Weibo by Monday morning. Some users said the air was reminiscent of the apocalyptic science fiction film "Interstellar."

LEO RAMIREZ The poor air quality was due to a sandstorm from northern Mongolia, according to state media

"This orange red sandstorm makes it looks like the end of the world," said one Weibo user.

Pollution in the city was at "hazardous" levels, according to air quality monitoring website Aqicn.

It said levels of PM 10 large particulate matter were nearly 20 times the World Health Organization's recommended daily maximum exposure.

Smaller PM 2.5 particles, which seep deep into human lungs and cause respiratory illnesses, were also at a hazardous level of 567 on Monday -- more than 20 times the WHO recommended daily limit.

China cut its national average level of airborne PM 2.5 dramatically between 2015 and 2019 and the government has announced an ambitious target to reach carbon neutrality by 2060.

bur-rox/apj/rhb/gle

Temple Grandin and Ros Blackburn speak at global autism conference in Edmonton

Lauren Boothby 

EDMONTON JOURNAL

 3/14/2021

Temple Grandin looked at how astronauts spent their time on a space station to create a routine to help her throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.© Provided by Edmonton Journal NATIONAL POST STAFF PHOTO // TORONTO February 06, 2009--Animal expert Temple Grandin poses for a portrait Marriott Residence Inn, 255 Wellington St. W. Toronto Friday, February 6, 2009. Grandin has designed ways to make livestock more comfortable. Brett Gundlock/National Post (For story by Adam McDowell, Weekend Post section)

Grandin was one of two high-profile autism lecturers, along with Ros Blackburn, who spoke to Edmontonians in a virtual conference by the Children’s Autism Services of Edmonton on Saturday amid COVID-19. They also highlighted what may be a difficult transition for some autistic people post-pandemic.

Getting up, taking a shower and getting dressed for work at the same time every day, regardless of what Grandin had planned for the day, and looking at astronaut’s routines on a space station has helped her cope, she said, and she recommends others do the same. Before the pandemic, she regularly travelled for speaking engagements.

“They have a schedule. They wake up in the morning, they have to get dressed, they can’t be in just whatever they sleep in, do their scientific work, do their maintenance, and then they have a mid-day meal … and then they have their exercise,” she said.

“And then they have time to have fun.”

While many have experienced mental health issues from isolation, a lack of physical and social contact with people, Blackburn said that hasn’t been her personal experience.

“As someone with autism, it’s actually been really quite refreshing to be able to not have to make social contact. I’ve been able to keep myself very occupied as well,” she said at the conference.

But once the pandemic ends, routines will shift again, and the transition may be difficult, she said.

Blackburn said she’s dreading going back into the world and it might be a lot to handle.

“Whether I will have regressed and lost some skills, we don’t know. I’m not going to get worried about it. We will face that if we need to. I think I will be I will feel very overwhelmed, the world will seem huge … it’s daunting,” she said in an interview after the meeting.

“I can’t at the moment envisage being motivated enough to make a huge effort … mix with other people to, to play the social game, as it were.”

The transition back is something she thinks everyone, regardless of if they are autistic or not, will find a challenge to navigate.

Terri Duncan, executive director of Children’s Autism Services of Edmonton, said some autistic children found going between learning in the classroom to distance learning, and back and forth between as rules changed during the pandemic, has been difficult for them and their families.

She said some kids have been overwhelmed with anxiety during the pandemic and struggled with learning online, and have been wanting to spend more time outside.

“COVID has really, really pushed them into a difficult place with their mental health with their anxiety, and COVID has made them so anxious,” she said in an interview after the meeting.

“The regression is something we worry about with our kids, and it is something that we have to keep an eye on.”

While some avoided following the latest COVID-19 developments in the news, both Grandin and Blackburn said they dealt with fear through knowledge, reading a lot of research about the disease and it made them feel less afraid.

Guimet Museum in Paris brings Bamiyan Buddhas back to life, 20 years on

Issued on: 11/03/2021 - 

The Bamiyan Buddhas were sculpted out of a cliff. © France 24

Text by: FRANCE 24

Video by:

Andrew HILLIAR|Aurélien PORCHER|Sylvain ROUSSEAU


Twenty years after the destruction of Afghanistan's Bamiyan Buddhas by the Taliban, the Guimet Museum in Paris is paying tribute to the dramatic 6th- and 7th-century sculptures and to the people of Bamiyan, the Hazara Shiites slain by the Taliban at the dawn of this century.

French archaeologists Joseph and Ria Hackin revealed the statues to the Western world nearly a century ago.

A cultural crossroads on the ancient Silk Road, Bamiyan was a centre of Buddhist teaching in the 6th century A.D., when two giant Buddhist statues were sculpted into the rockface of its cliffs. The statues served as a reminder of that golden age until March 11, 2001, when they were blown up by the Taliban, which also ordered the execution of 10,000 Hazara Shiites in the area.

"Bamiyan was the first assassination carried out this century and was the harbinger of other rivers of blood," artist and historian Pascal Convert told FRANCE 24 at the Guimet Museum. "After their destruction on March 11, there was September 11. The twinning of the Buddhas. The twin towers. The twin aspect of the number 11."

FRANCE 24's Sylvain Rousseau, Mandi Heshmati and Aurélien Porcher filed this report, voiced by Andrew Hilliar.

 

Artist Kubra Khademi paints a provocative picture of Afghan womanhood

The stark, sensual lines of her female nudes make for a subversive selection of imagery. In her latest exhibition, Kubra Khademi juxtaposes intimate expressions of women's sexuality with the texts of Persian poet, Rumi. The result is an explicit, playful and idiosyncratic collection of images which challenge the taboos within Afghan society. Living and working in Paris since 2015, Kubra tells us about the performance art that forced her to flee her home country.

Also, 20 years after the destruction of the Buddhas of Bamiyan, we discuss how Afghan cultural heritage has been the victim of years of war and political instability, and the consequences for people living there today.

France's war on drugs: Harsh laws vs. high consumption

In this week's show, we explore illegal drugs in France. Despite having some of Europe’s strictest drug laws, France has the highest rate of cannabis consumption on the continent. So what does the law say? And where is public opinion on the issue? We take a closer look in this edition of French Connections.

A ONE TERM PREMIER
POLLING 338Canada:

A major warning sign for Jason Kenney’s UCP

Philippe J. Fournier 

3/14/2021

Since the Wildrose and PC merger back in 2017, the Alberta NDP didn’t lead in any voting intention polls in the province until late fall of 2020. 

While several polls throughout 2020 clearly indicated that many Albertans were less than enthused with Jason Kenney’s handling of the pandemic, the United Conservative Party (UCP) was still consistently polling either in first place or tied with the NDP, until a poll from Research Co. measured the NDP with a narrow 3-point lead in December. 

Eyebrows were raised, but surely the new year would bring a return to normal?

© Used with permission of / © St. Joseph Communications. 

Kenney holds a COVID-19 briefing in Edmonton on March 20, 2020 (CP/Jason Franson)

In January, Mainstreet Research released its own numbers in the Western Standard which gave the NDP a stunning 17-point lead over the UCP, and a renewed Wildrose Party (now a pro-independence party), rising on the UCP’s right flank. However, it was argued that Mainstreet’s poll had coincided with the several media stories of UCP MLAs and staff who had travelled to sunny destinations during the Holiday break. Perhaps those numbers only reflected a knee-jerk, temporary anti-UCP sentiment that would subside in the following weeks?

Lo and behold: Two additional Alberta polls were released this week from the Angus Reid Institute and Léger, and, although both polls showed radically different numbers, they both confirm the UCP has been bleeding support since the end of 2020:

CLICK ON INFOGRAPICS  TO ENLARGE 

© Provided by Maclean's


First: The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) measured the NDP at 41 per cent province-wide, three points ahead of the UCP. Considering the size of the poll’s sample, this result should be read as a statistical tie between the two parties. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that this represents a 7-point swing in favour of the NDP compared to ARI’s previous Alberta poll in November. The poll’s regional subsamples indicates the NDP is leading in both Calgary and Edmonton, but trailing the UCP in the regions of Alberta. Of note: ARI measures a significant gender gap (which we have observed in previous Alberta polls): Among male voters, the UCP leads 42 to 36 per cent; among women voters, the NDP holds a 12-point lead (46 to 34 per cent).


Second: Léger, one of the top-rated pollsters in the country, released a real head-scratcher for Postmedia this weekend. According to this new poll, the NDP pulls ahead with 51 per cent of voting intentions in the province, a crushing 21-point margin over the UCP among decided and leaning voters. The NDP leads by 40 points in Edmonton, 16 points in Calgary, and, more shockingly, 9 points in the regions of Alberta. Rachel Notley’s NDP is also in first among all age groups—including a 32-point lead among the 18 to 34 year-old demographic. The poll shows no significant gender gap however: the NDP is ahead by 19 points with men and by 23 points among women.

What to make of these diverging numbers? Canadian pollsters as a general rule have had a rough time in recent Alberta elections. In the 2019 provincial Alberta election, Léger underestimated the UCP by five points, and Angus Reid overestimated the NDP by 6 points. Months later in the federal election, although polling firms scored generally well in their national numbers, polls underestimated the federal Conservatives in Alberta by an average of 10 points. Naturally, two occurrences don’t make a rule, but it does at least make us weary that polls may once again be underestimating the right-wing vote in the province.

© Provided by Maclean's



We add these newest polls in the 338Canada Alberta model and present today this updated Alberta projection. A word of warning before going further however: Readers will notice a high degree of uncertainty in these projections. These large confidence intervals are not a bug, but a feature, caused by the significant spread in the latest polls. When data is uncertain, projections are bound to be uncertain as well.

If an election were held in Alberta this week, the NDP and UCP would be projected in a dead heat that could be decided by no more than a handful of districts. The NDP wins an average of 45 seats, including near-sweeps of Edmonton and Calgary. As for the UCP, although it is projected ahead in 45 electoral districts, the fact that it is favoured in all eight “toss up” districts brings the party’s average to 42 seats. The threshold for a majority at the Legislative Assembly of Alberta is 44 seats:

© Provided by Maclean's



As you may notice on the graph below, both probability density curves overlap almost perfectly. The seat projection confidence intervals range roughly from the mid-30s to the mid-50s for both parties:

© Provided by Maclean's



The NDP wins 55 per cent of all 100,000 simulations performed by the 338Canada model, odds barely better than a coin flip. In a hypothetical scenario where numbers such as these are the last ones available before voting day, there would be no clear-cut favourite. The projection would simply be too close to call:

© Provided by Maclean's



Naturally, more polling would be necessary to have a clearer picture of the landscape as the UCP is nearing the mid-point of its mandate. Despite these poor results for the UCP, there are nevertheless some silver linings for Jason Kenney in these numbers.

First, poll after poll in the past six months, Kenney has been among the most poorly rated premier in Canada on his handling of the pandemic (Angus Reid’s had his approval rating at 39 per cent, and Léger at 40 per cent), yet his party is still projected in a dead heat with the NDP. The election is still two years away, so there is, theoretically, plenty of time for the UCP to rebound.

Second, the UCP still enjoys a mathematical seat advantage over the NDP. The projection shows the UCP could potentially lose the popular vote in a general election by as much 3 or 4 points behind the NDP, and still win the most seats. The fact that the NDP runs up the score with urban voters skews the projection in favour of the UCP—in ways similar to the federal Conservatives running up the score in Alberta and Saskatchewan in 2019, only to come up well short in the seat count despite winning the popular vote over the federal Liberals.

Additionally, the Léger poll also measured a high level of undecided and discreet voters (27 per cent). Could conservative voters in Alberta currently unsatisfied with the UCP and Jason Kenney decide to “park” their theoretical vote with undecideds, but still come back into the UCP fold come next election? It certainly is a plausible hypothesis.

Still, this should be a major warning sign to the UCP. Complacency was among the many factors that sank the Progressive Conservatives in the 2015 election, which resulted with a near-perfect split of the right-of-centre vote between the PC and former Wildrose, and allowing the NDP to sneak through both of them. Disgruntled voters tend to vote in lesser droves than motivated ones, and clearly the NDP base appears motivated to regain power in Edmonton in two years—something no political party in Alberta has ever done.

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For details on this Alberta projection, visit the 338Canada Alberta page. Find your home riding in this list or use the regional links below:
Calgary
Edmonton
Northern Alberta
Central Alberta
Southern Alberta