Icebreaker's cyclone encounter reveals faster sea ice decline

UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS

Research News

IMAGE: THE KOREAN ICEBREAKER ARAON, WHICH UNEXPECTEDLY FOUND ITSELF IN AN ARCTIC CYCLONE IN 2016, UNLOCKED THE KEY TO HOW THESE STORMS WREAK HAVOC ON SEA ICE IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN. view more 

CREDIT: PHOTO BY JOO-HONG KIM, KOREA POLAR RESEARCH INSTITUTE

In August 2016 a massive storm on par with a Category 2 hurricane churned in the Arctic Ocean. The cyclone led to the third-lowest sea ice extent ever recorded. But what made the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016 particularly appealing to scientists was the proximity of the Korean icebreaker Araon.

For the  and their international colleagues recently published a new study showing that sea ice declined 5.7 times faster than normal during the storm. They werefirst t me ever, scientists were able to see exactly what happens to the ocean and sea ice when a cyclone hits. University of Alaska Fairbanks researchers also ab and their international colleagues recently published a new study showing that sea ice declined 5.7 times faster than normal during the storm. They were e to prove that the rapid decline was driven by cyclone-triggered processes within the ocean.

"Generally, when storms come in, they decrease sea ice, but scientists didn't understand what really caused it," said lead author Xiangdong Zhang from the UAF International Arctic Research Center.

There was general speculation that sea ice declined solely from atmospheric processes melting ice from above. Zhang and his team proved this theory incomplete using "in-situ" observations from directly inside the cyclone. The measurements reflected things like air and ocean temperature, radiation, wind and ocean currents.

It was a stroke of good luck for science, and perhaps a bit nerve-racking for those onboard, that the icebreaker was in position to capture data from the cyclone. Usually ships try to avoid such storms, but Araon had just sailed into the middle of an ice-covered zone and was locked in an ice floe.

Thanks to the ship's position so close to the storm, Xiangdong and his team were able to explain that cyclone-related sea ice loss is primarily due to two physical ocean processes.

First, strong spinning winds force the surface water to move away from the cyclone. This draws deeper warm water to the surface. Despite this warm water upwelling, a small layer of cool water remains directly beneath the sea ice.

That's where a second process comes into play. The strong cyclone winds act like a blender, mixing the surface water.

Together, the warm water upwelling and the surface turbulence warm the entire upper ocean water column and melt the sea ice from below.

Although the August storm raged for only 10 days, there were lasting effects.

"It's not just the storm itself," explained Zhang. "It has lingering effects because of the enhanced ice-albedo feedback."

The enlarged patches of open water from the storm absorb more heat, which melts more sea ice, causing even more open water. From Aug. 13-22, the amount of sea ice in the entire Arctic Ocean declined by 230,000 square miles, an area more than twice the size of the state of Arizona.

Xiangdong is now working with a new computer model for the Department of Energy to evaluate whether climate change will lead to more Arctic cyclones. Previous research shows that over the past half-century, the number and intensity of cyclones in the Arctic have increased. Some of those storms, like the biggest Arctic cyclone on record in 2012, also led to record low sea ice extent.

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Additional co-authors for this paper include two University of Alaska Fairbanks graduate students, Liran Peng and Han Tang, along with Korean researchers Joo-Hong Kim, Kyoung-Ho Cho and Baek-Min Kim, and Zhaomin Wang from China.

Northern forest fires could accelerate climate change

BU researchers used NASA satellite imaging data to analyze 30 years of Earth's northern forests and found that fires are increasingly hampering forests' ability to capture and store atmospheric carbon

BOSTON UNIVERSITY

Research News

 

IMAGE: THE STUDY FOCUSED ON WOODED PEATLAND AND FORESTS LIKE THE LANDSCAPE PICTURED HERE NEAR THE TOWN OF WRIGLEY IN CANADA'S NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THIS DRONE IMAGERY WAS TAKEN BY THEN-BU PHD... view more 

CREDIT: COURTESY OF JONATHAN WANG

New research indicates that the computer-based models currently used to simulate how Earth's climate will change in the future underestimate the impact that forest fires and drying climate are having on the world's northernmost forests, which make up the largest forest biome on the planet. It's an important understanding because these northern forests absorb a significant amount of Earth's carbon dioxide.

The finding, reached by studying 30 years of the world's forests using NASA satellite imaging data, suggests that forests won't be able to sequester as much carbon as previously expected, making efforts to reduce carbon emissions all the more urgent.

"Fires are intensifying, and when forests burn, carbon is released into the atmosphere," says Boston University environmental earth scientist Mark Friedl, senior author on the study published in Nature Climate Change. "But we're also seeing longer growing seasons, warmer temperatures, which draws carbon out of the atmosphere [and into plants]. More CO2 in the atmosphere acts as a fertilizer, increasing growth of trees and plants—so, scientifically, there's been this big question out there: What is happening on a global scale to Earth's forests? Will they continue to absorb as much carbon as they do now?"

Today's forests capture about 30 percent of all human-related CO2 emissions, which Friedl calls a "huge buffer on anthropogenic climate change." The new study, however, reveals that scientists have so far been underestimating the impact that fires and other disturbances—like timber harvests—are having on Earth's northern forests and, at the same time, have been overestimating the growth-enhancing effect of climate warming and rising atmospheric CO2 levels.

"Current Earth systems models appear to be misrepresenting a big chunk of the global biosphere. These models simulate the atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere, and our results suggest [the model-based simulation of northern forests] has been way off," says Friedl, a BU College of Arts & Sciences professor of earth and environment and interim director of BU's Center for Remote Sensing. He is an expert in utilizing satellite imaging data to monitor Earth's ecosystems on a global scale.

"It is not enough for a forest to absorb and store carbon in its wood and soils. For that to be a real benefit, the forest has to remain intact—an increasing challenge in a warming, more fire-prone climate," says Jonathan Wang, the paper's lead author. "The far north is home to vast, dense stores of carbon that are very sensitive to climate change, and it will take a lot of monitoring and effort to make sure these forests and their carbon stores remain intact."

Working on his PhD in Friedl's lab, Wang researched new ways to leverage the record of data collected from the long-standing Landsat program, a joint NASA/US Geological Survey mission that has been extensively imaging Earth's surface from satellites for decades, to understand how Earth's forests are changing. Wang says new computational and machine learning techniques for combining large remote sensing datasets have become much more advanced, "enabling the monitoring of even the most remote ecosystems with unprecedented detail."

He developed a method to gain richer information from 30 years of Landsat data by comparing it with more recent measurements from NASA's ICESat mission, a satellite carrying laser-based imaging technology, called LiDAR, that can detect the height of vegetation within a forest. Landsat, on the other hand, primarily detects forest cover but not how tall the trees are.

Comparing the newer LiDAR measurements with imaging data gathered from Landsat during the same time period, the team then worked backwards to calculate how tall and dense the vegetation was over the last three decades. They could then determine how the biomass in Earth's northern forests has changed over time—revealing that the forests have been losing more biomass than expected due to increasingly frequent and extensive forest fires.

Specifically, Friedl says, the forests are losing conifers, trees that are emblematic of Earth's northern forests, and for good reason. "Fires come in and burn, and then the most opportunistic types of species grow back first—like hardwoods—which then get replaced by conifers such as black spruce," he says. "But over the last 30 years, which isn't a long time frame in the context of climate change, we see fires taking out more forests, and we see hardwoods sticking around longer rather than being replaced by conifers."

Conifers are better adapted to cold climates than hardwoods, which could potentially be contributing to the dwindling overall biomass of the forests.

"An often-stated argument against climate action is the supposed benefits that far northern ecosystems and communities will enjoy from increased warmth," Wang says. He hopes the study's discovery will help people understand that the global climate crisis has serious issues for the far north, as well. "It may be greening, in some sense," he says, "but in reality the climate-driven increase in wildfires is undoing much of the potential benefits of a warming, greening north."

Wang and Friedl's findings shed light on a question that would have been difficult to answer without the help of NASA's "eyes in the sky."

"Fire regimens are changing because of climate, and many areas of the world's forests are in uninhabited areas where the effects of intense fires may not be easily noticed," Friedl says. "When big chunks of real estate in places like California go up in flames, that gets our attention. But northern forests, which hold some of the largest stocks of carbon in the world, are being impacted by fires more than we realized until now."

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Additional authors on the study include James Randerson, faculty member of UC Irvine Earth System Science; BU alum Mary Farina, now a PhD candidate at Montana State University; and Alessandro Baccini, research professor in BU's Center for Remote Sensing.

Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news rele

INSTITUTIONAL RACISM

Care teams differ for Black, white surgical patients in the same hospitals

Could the makeup of medical teams help explain why Black patients are more likely than white patients to die after heart surgery in the same hospitals?

MICHIGAN MEDICINE - UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN

Research News

 

IMAGE: COULD THE MAKEUP OF MEDICAL TEAMS HELP EXPLAIN WHY BLACK PATIENTS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN WHITE PATIENTS TO DIE AFTER HEART BYPASS SURGERY IN THE SAME HOSPITALS? view more 

CREDIT: JACOB DWYER/ MICHIGAN MEDICINE

A new study finds Black patients are more likely to die after their heart bypass surgery if they're at a hospital where some care teams see mostly white patients and others see mostly Black patients. On the other hand, mortality rates are comparable between Black and white patients after heart bypass surgery when the teams of health care providers at their hospitals all care for patients of all races.

Some level of care team segregation within hospitals was very common, and the findings bring up another angle to better understand racial inequities in surgical outcomes, says co-first author John Hollingsworth, M.D., M.Sc., a professor of urology at Michigan Medicine and of health management and policy at the University of Michigan School of Public Health.

Previous studies have already shown that mortality after heart bypass surgery is higher overall in Black patients than white patients, but known factors such as access to care and use of lower resourced hospitals don't fully explain the disparities.

Hollingsworth and colleagues' new paper reviewed Medicare claims from more than 12,000 heart bypass procedures between 2008 and 2014. The data included claims from 72 hospitals across the country where at least 10 Black patients and at least 10 white patients underwent heart bypass surgery over the study interval.

Researchers used social network analysis to see where provider overlap happened--or didn't happen--between Black and white heart bypass patients and create a provider care team segregation score for each hospital.

"In the Medicare population, there is a lack of overlap in the composition of the provider care teams that treat Black and white patients undergoing heart bypass surgery in the same hospital," Hollingsworth says. "Such provider care team segregation is associated with higher operative mortality for this procedure among Black patients."

Researchers say the reasons for this segregation may include patient preference, in which people prefer to have a care provider who looks like them; admission priority, in which Black patients are more likely to come from the emergency room for their heart bypass than schedule it in advance as an elective surgery; and effects of structural racism on the process of assigning patients to provider care teams, which includes a variety of decisions that don't always get shared or explained.

Co-senior author Brahmajee Nallamothu, M.D., M.P.H., a professor of internal medicine and an interventional cardiologist at the Michigan Medicine Frankel Cardiovascular Center, says the findings point to the need for in-depth study of provider care team segregation as part of the effort to reduce health care inequities.

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Hollingsworth and Nallamothu are both members of U-M's Institute for Healthcare Policy & Innovation.

Fish have been swallowing microplastics since the 1950s

Museum collections reveal the history of microplastics

FIELD MUSEUM

Research News

 

IMAGE: A THIN, THREAD-LIKE STRAND OF MICROPLASTIC FROM A FISH'S DIGESTIVE TRACT. view more 

CREDIT: LOREN HOU

Forget diamonds--plastic is forever. It takes decades, or even centuries, for plastic to break down, and nearly every piece of plastic ever made still exists in some form today. We've known for a while that big pieces of plastic can harm wildlife--think of seabirds stuck in plastic six-pack rings--but in more recent years, scientists have discovered microscopic bits of plastic in the water, soil, and even the atmosphere. To learn how these microplastics have built up over the past century, researchers examined the guts of freshwater fish preserved in museum collections; they found that fish have been swallowing microplastics since the 1950s and that the concentration of microplastics in their guts has increased over time.

"For the last 10 or 15 years it's kind of been in the public consciousness that there's a problem with plastic in the water. But really, organisms have probably been exposed to plastic litter since plastic was invented, and we don't know what that historical context looks like," says Tim Hoellein, an associate professor of biology at Loyola University Chicago and the corresponding author of a new study in Ecological Applications. "Looking at museum specimens is essentially a way we can go back in time."

Caleb McMahan, an ichthyologist at the Field Museum, cares for some two million fish specimens, most of which are preserved in alcohol and stored in jars in the museum's underground Collections Resource Center. These specimens are more than just dead fish, though--they're a snapshot of life on Earth. "We can never go back to that time period, in that place," says McMahan, a co-author of the paper.

Hoellein and his graduate student Loren Hou were interested in examining the buildup of microplastics in freshwater fish from the Chicagoland region. They reached out to McMahan, who helped identify four common fish species that the museum had chronological records of dating back to 1900: largemouth bass, channel catfish, sand shiners, and round gobies. Specimens from the Illinois Natural History Survey and University of Tennessee also filled in sampling gaps.

"We would take these jars full of fish and find specimens that were sort of average, not the biggest or the smallest, and then we used scalpels and tweezers to dissect out the digestive tracts," says Hou, the paper's lead author. "We tried to get at least five specimens per decade."

To actually find the plastic in the fishes' guts, Hou treated the digestive tracts with hydrogen peroxide. "It bubbles and fizzes and breaks up all the organic matter, but plastic is resistant to the process," she explains.

The plastic left behind is too tiny to see with the naked eye, though: "It just looks like a yellow stain, you don't see it until you put it under the microscope," says Hou. Under the magnification, though, it's easier to identify. "We look at the shape of these little pieces. If the edges are frayed, it's often organic material, but if it's really smooth, then it's most likely microplastic." To confirm the identity of these microplastics and determine where they came from, Hou and Hoellein worked with collaborators at the University of Toronto to examine the samples using Raman spectroscopy, a technique that uses light to analyze the chemical signature of a sample.

The researchers found that the amount of microplastics present in the fishes' guts rose dramatically over time as more plastic was manufactured and built up in the ecosystem. There were no plastic particles before mid-century, but when plastic manufacturing was industrialized in the 1950s, the concentrations skyrocketed.

"We found that the load of microplastics in the guts of these fishes have basically gone up with the levels of plastic production," says McMahan. "It's the same pattern of what they're finding in marine sediments, it follows the general trend that plastic is everywhere."

The analysis of the microplastics revealed an insidious form of pollution: fabrics. "Microplastics can come from larger objects being fragmented, but they're often from clothing," says Hou--whenever you wash a pair of leggings or a polyester shirt, tiny little threads break off and get flushed into the water supply.

"It's plastic on your back, and that's just not the way that we've been thinking about it," says Hoellein. "So even just thinking about it is a step forward in addressing our purchases and our responsibility."

It's not clear how ingesting these microplastics affected the fish in this study, but it's probably not great. "When you look at the effects of microplastic ingestion, especially long term effects, for organisms such as fish, it causes digestive tract changes, and it also causes increased stress in these organisms," says Hou.

While the findings are stark--McMahan described one of the paper's graphs showing the sharp rise in microplastics as "alarming"--the researchers hope it will serve as a wake-up call. "The entire purpose of our work is to contribute to solutions," says Hoellein. "We have some evidence that public education and policies can change our relationship to plastic. It's not just bad news, there's an application that I think should give everyone a collective reason for hope."

The researchers say the study also highlights the importance of natural history collections in museums. "Loren and I both love the Field Museum but don't always think about it in terms of its day-to-day scientific operations," says Hoellein. "It's an incredible resource of the natural world, not just as it exists now but as it existed in the past. It's fun for me to think of the museum collection sort of like the voice of those long dead organisms that are still telling us something about the state of the world today."

"You can't do this kind of work without these collections," says McMahan. "We need older specimens, we need the recent ones, and we're going to need what we collect in the next 100 years."

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Stalagmites Embody Clock-Like Chronicles of Time Over Thousands of Years


Stalagmites in Carlsbad Caverns, New Mexico. (Cabezonication/Getty Images)

PETER DOCKRILL
26 APRIL 2021

Deep underground, in mysterious caverns that seem almost measureless to humans, caves have devised their own strange ways of keeping time as the eternities pass by.

Over millennia, a ponderous exchange takes place so slowly, it makes the growing of grass look action-packed in comparison. Hanging from cave ceilings, downward-growing stalactites drip water containing chemicals onto the cave floor, which slowly aggregates into an upward-growing stalagmite.

Scientists have understood the basics of this speleothem relationship for a long time, but we're still discovering just how much of the ancient past is inscribed in these underground formations: echoes of ancient wildfires, sagas of societal collapse, and even grim predictions of our own destiny.

In a new study led by geochemist Andy Baker from UNSW in Australia, researchers have now found that stalagmites don't just record these dramatic instances of sudden and extreme climate events – they also act as natural timekeepers, chronicling the steady passage of time into the layers of rocks they become.

"Our new global analysis shows that we can consider stalagmite growth as being like a metronome and very constant over hundreds and thousands of years," Baker explains.

"In general, stalagmite growth is predictable and it is this unique property that makes them so valuable to researchers – you can tell the time in the past by using the very regular growth rings that are widely present across the globe."

In their research, Baker and his team analyzed stalagmites from 23 caves across 6 continents, looking for any common mechanisms that might explain their development.

They found that stalagmite growth rates increased in line with warmer temperatures, and that the formations only seem to grow in regions with seasonal precipitation.

While many kinds of climate disturbances can affect the ways stalagmites develop, once you average out these extreme episodes, the growth rate over time is relatively common and consistent across the globe – not to mention mind-bogglingly slow.

"The 'global average stalagmite' increased in height by about one meter over the last 11,000 years," Baker says.

Over such epic timeframes, stalagmites generally grow in an ordered fashion, much like tree rings, except for when long-lasting, multi-year disturbances – such as prolonged wet or dry years associated with things like El Niño or La Niña events – stand out in the record.

When those disturbances pass, though, the stalagmite growth layers (laminae) return to their regular rhythm, informed by the consistency of moisture descending onto them from above.

"Stalagmite accumulation rate is relatively unchanging over time," the researchers write in their paper.

"This is because their drip water source has enough volume and a stable chemical composition to be a buffer to rapid changes. Year‐to‐year, we see a 'flickering', where accumulation rate returns toward the long‐term average, also due to this buffering effect."

For these reasons, the researchers say stalagmites have much to teach us about the chronology of the ancient past – a vast archive of climate‐related proxy data we've only just begun to explore.

The findings are reported in Reviews of Geophysics.

Breathtaking New Hubble Image Shows a Giant Star on The Brink of Annihilation


DAVID NIELD
27 APRIL 2021


The spectacle of space has our jaws constantly dropping, and the picture that was just released to celebrate 31 years of the Hubble Space Telescope is another incredibly powerful shot that we could gaze at for hours.


It shows the giant, ultra-bright star AG Carinae, 20,000 light-years away from Earth, in a phase that makes it a Luminous Blue Variable (LBV) – where massive stars such as this one go through thousands of years of instability and varying luminosity.

Some 70 times bigger and around 1 million times brighter than our own Sun, AG Carinae is battling itself as it tries to avoid complete annihilation. With gravity pushing inwards and radiation pushing outwards at almost unimaginable levels, the star reaches pressure points where its outer layers blast off in an explosion – as shown in this image.

(NASA, ESA, STScI)

What you can see around AG Carinae is a gigantic nebula, an expanding shell of gas and dust, around five light-years wide – that's the same distance from our planet to Alpha Centauri, our next nearest star, to give you a sense of scale.

This particular eruption happened several thousand years ago. You can see both red material, which is glowing hydrogen gas laced with nitrogen gas, and blue material, which is dust clumps pushed out from the star.


Stellar winds are traveling away from the star at around 1 million kilometers (621,371 miles) per hour, eventually catching up to the circling material and pushing it out into space. To the top left of the photo you can see a more diffuse area of red, where the stellar winds have burst through.

The tadpole-like shapes in blue are clumps of dust that the winds have specifically sculpted. It's thanks to Hubble, and the way it can capture both visible and ultraviolet light from above Earth's atmosphere, that we can see all this in so much detail.

Outbursts like this one will happen a few times during the lifetime of an LBV, and in this case it's estimated that AG Carinae has pushed out a volume of material that's equivalent to 10 times the mass of our Sun.

These spectacular shows happen when a star is about to come apart: by shedding all of these outer layers, the LBV can shrink again and become stable... at least for a while. These stars only live for a few million years (rather than the 10-billion-year lifetime of our Sun).

"I like studying these kinds of stars because I am fascinated by their instability," says astronomer Kerstin Weis, from Ruhr University in Germany. "They are doing something weird."

Happy birthday Hubble, and thanks for all the fantastic images. Since 24 April 1990, the telescope has made over 1.5 million observations of around 48,000 celestial objects.

Earth Is Using 173% of The World's Total 'Biocapacity', Scientists Warn


(Monty Rakusen/Getty Images)

CARLY CASSELLA
27 APRIL 2021

Humans around the world are consuming far more natural resources than our planet can continue to sustain, condemning the majority of people to ecological poverty, according to new research.

When researchers tried to put a number on our natural resource deficit for the year 2017, they found our global population of over 7.5 billion people had spent 173 percent of the world's total biocapacity that year.

This is obviously a major overshoot, and it's part of a trend that has gotten much worse in recent decades. In 1980, humanity was using only 119 percent of the world's biocapacity.

Much of the surge in demand since then has been driven by wealthier nations, requiring higher and higher standards of living, even if they have to buy resources from elsewhere.

Today, nearly three quarters of all people live in nations with lower-than-average incomes and a scarcity of natural resources, which means they simply can't compete.

Clearly, the path we are on today cannot be trod forever. If the world is truly serious about eradicating poverty, then experts say we cannot keep ignoring the limiting factor that is Earth's resources.

Dividing the world's countries into four categories, based on their gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and their local ecological deficit, researchers have illustrated an unsustainable shift in humanity's demand for resources.


If we don't seek to rapidly improve resource security - through conservation and restoration, fossil fuels cuts, sustainable development, and shifting consumption patterns - the authors argue our natural capital will be unable to recover, and our hope for a more equal future will be wholly undermined.

In the year 1980, 57 percent of the global population lived in a country with the "double curse" of a below-average income and a deficit in biological resources, the researchers found. In 2017, that number had jumped to 72 percent.

On the other hand, higher income countries with resource deficits make up only 14 percent of the world population, but this minority demands an astonishing 52 percent of the planet's biocapacity.

Switzerland and Singapore are two notable nations that fall into this latter category, which means they are shielded from resource insecurity because they have the money to buy what they need from other places.

To live in a truly sustainable way, scientists think we should be using no more than half our planet's resource capacity, but if everyone in the world lived like those in higher income, low resource countries, like Switzerland, we would need roughly 3.67 planet Earths to meet global demand.

"If the development patterns of these cities or territories are not replicable, there is only one way for such entities to avoid their own demise: they must be certain that they can financially outcompete everybody else on this planet forever to secure their resource metabolism," the authors conclude.

"Requiring such a strategy to succeed is precarious for regions at any income level."

But it's especially dangerous for lower income regions, who cannot compete for resources at the same level. Without assistance from wealthier nations, there's really not a lot these nations can do.

In fact, researchers argue lower income countries currently face a catch-22. Continuing with the status quo will no doubt make their current resource crisis worse, but making rapid changes to human resource consumption will also cost a lot of money, which many simply cannot afford.

What's more, because wealthier nations consume many more resources than are absolutely necessary to live, they have much more wiggle room in the face of future disaster.

In an economic downturn, for instance, a loss of resources isn't as catastrophic for Spain as it would be for Niger or Kenya, where such a rapid loss could erode food and energy security for many more people, putting their very lives at risk.

"This paper strengthens the case that biological resource security is a far more influential factor contributing to lasting development success than most economic development theories and practices would suggest," the authors conclude, "and shows how unevenly it affects distinct human populations."

Clearly, we are spending more than humanity or our planet can afford.

The study was published in Nature Sustainability.

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2 Simple Charts Show When You Don't Need to Wear a Mask Under New CDC Guidelines

HILARY BRUECK, BUSINESS INSIDER
28 APRIL 2021

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention wants people to know there are clear, personal benefits to getting vaccinated.

On Tuesday, the agency released new guidelines for when fully vaccinated people – that is, those who've allowed their shot(s) two full weeks to take effect – can take off their masks.


"We all miss the things that we used to do before the pandemic," CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said, announcing the new guidance.

"If you are fully vaccinated and want to attend a small outdoor gathering with people who are vaccinated and unvaccinated, or dine at an outdoor restaurant with friends from multiple households, the science shows – if you're vaccinated – you can do so safely, unmasked."

The chart below, from the CDC, shows which activities the agency considers safe to do unmasked outside.

You'll note that fully vaccinated people can do almost anything outdoors without a mask, with the notable exception of attending a crowded event, like a parade, game, or concert.

(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

The CDC is loosening the reins a little bit for unvaccinated folks as well – suggesting it's OK to go outside without a mask on, as long as you're just:
Venturing out for some exercise with members of your own household (and not coming into close physical contact with others while you're walking, biking, or running).
Or, going to a small outdoor gathering with fully vaccinated friends or family.


In all other cases, the CDC still stresses that masks should be worn, especially when people are indoors.

During the briefing, Walensky reiterated that the science is clear now that the risks of catching the coronavirus are much lower outdoors, where there's near infinite ventilation, than inside.

"There's almost a 20-fold increased risk of transmission in the indoor setting," she said.

"That, coupled with the fact that we now have 37 percent of people over the age of 18 fully vaccinated, and the fact that our case rates are now starting to come down, motivated our change in guidance."

Indoors, in public spaces, the CDC still says everyone should wear masks.

The chart below, with vaccinated people in green, and unvaccinated in yellow and red, is meant to demonstrate the relative risks of doing activities indoors during the pandemic, even with a mask on.

You'll note that singing, exercising, and eating indoors, all activities where people may potentially be emitting more infectious viral particles into the air, are considered less safe for unvaccinated people than vaccinated. The chart below has unvaccinated people on the left, and vaccinated on the right:

  

(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

This article was originally published by Business Insider.

A Massive Study of Nearly Every Glacier on Earth Just Revealed a Devastating Trend


Chapman glacier in Canada. (NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Space Systems, and US/Japan 

NICOLETTA LANESE, LIVE SCIENCE
29 APRIL 2021


Earth's glaciers are shrinking, and in the past 20 years, the rate of shrinkage has steadily sped up, according to a new study of nearly every glacier on the planet.

Glaciers mostly lose mass through ice melt, but they also shrink due to other processes, such as sublimation, where water evaporates directly from the ice, and calving, where large chunks of ice break off the edge of a glacier, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).


By tracking how quickly glaciers are shrinking, scientists can better predict how quickly sea levels may rise, particularly as climate change drives up average global temperatures.

But estimating the rate of glacier shrinkage can be notoriously difficult; past estimates relied on field studies of only a few hundred glaciers out of the more than 200,000 on Earth, as well as sparse satellite data with limited resolution, the authors noted in their new study, published Wednesday (April 28) in the journal Nature.

Some of this satellite data captured changes in surface elevation, but only sampled a few places and at sparse time points.

Other satellites detected slight shifts in the Earth's gravitational field, but could not disentangle how much glacier shrinkage contributed to these shifts, as opposed to mass changes in ice sheets or solid earth, for instance.

Related: Time-lapse images of retreating glaciers

To zero in on a more precise estimate, the team used myriad satellite and aerial images to survey 217,175 glaciers, accounting for nearly all of Earth's glaciers.

In particular, a 20-year archive of images from NASA's Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), a high-resolution sensor aboard the Terra satellite, supplied the team with a wealth of data and allowed them to make more certain estimates of glacier mass loss through time.


"We not only have the complete spatial coverage of all glaciers, but also repeat temporal sampling," meaning measurements taken from many points in time, said first author Romain Hugonnet, a doctoral student at the University of Toulouse in France and the Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW) at ETH Zürich in Switzerland.

The team found that, between 2000 and 2019, glaciers collectively lost an average of 293.7 billion tons (267 billion metric tonnes) of mass per year, give or take 17.6 billion tons (16 billion metric tonnes); this accounts for about 21 percent of the observed sea-level rise in that time frame, the authors noted.

Regional and global mass change rates with time series of mean surface elevation change rates for glaciers. (Hugonnet et al., Nature, 2021.)

And for each decade since 2000, the overall rate of glacier mass loss has been accelerating, increasing by about 52.8 billion tons (48 billion metric tonnes) per year, which may account for an observed acceleration in sea-level rise.

These estimates significantly narrow the uncertainty around how much mass glaciers lost in recent decades, Hugonnet said.

For instance, the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a recent global study, published in 2019 in the journal Nature, both calculated mass loss estimates in the same ballpark as the new study; but their margins of error spanned several hundred gigatonnes on either side.


Hugonnet and his team were able to greatly reduce this uncertainty by using the ASTER data.

ASTER captures images on the visible and near-infrared spectrum, "so almost what we see with our own eyes," Hugonnet said.

Because the sensor orbits Earth about 438 miles (750 kilometers) above the planet's surface, it can snap images of the same locations from multiple angles: once as it passes directly over a spot and once as if it's "looking back" from where it came.

The two snapshots can then be used to reconstruct the 3D topography of Earth's surface, and in this case, the 3D structure of glaciers across the planet. Hugonnet and his team quantified these changes in volume and then multiplied that by the density of glacier ice, to determine how much mass the glaciers had lost.

The group also double-checked their work against data from NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and Operation IceBridge campaigns, a NASA project in which a fleet of research aircraft surveys Earth's polar ice.

This additional data confirmed that the ASTER images generally matched up with other available data front the same time period, and it also helped the team correct for statistical "noise" in the ASTER data.


Using these methods, the team calculated a fairly confident estimate, but some uncertainty still remains, Hugonnet said.

"The problem with glaciers is that we're not only losing ice, we're also losing firn," a kind of partially compacted snow usually found on top of glaciers, he said. The current study didn't differentiate firn from ice when estimating mass loss, "so it's, right now, our largest source of uncertainty," in terms of nailing down a precise rate, Hugonnet said.

In addition, the team noted that not all Earth's glaciers lost mass at the same rates. "What was even more interesting, and a bit surprising, was to see that some regions decelerated and others accelerated," Hugonnet said.

For instance, mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and western Canada ramped up significantly in the study time frame, while loss from Icelandic, Scandinavian and southeast Greenland glaciers slowed between the early 2000s and late 2010s.

Zooming in on these regions, the authors found that regional climate conditions, specifically long-term fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, helped explain these stark differences.

So while Iceland, Scandinavia and Greenland entered a decade of relatively cool, wet conditions in the second decade of the 21st century, northwestern North America entered a relatively dry period, meaning glaciers ultimately lost more ice than they gained snow.

"We have those fluctuations that exist in some regions and can last for about a decade, sometimes," Hugonnet said.

"This is also why we need such globally complete sets of observations, such as the one we provided," he noted.

Tracking average glacier mass loss, on a global scale, can help scientists predict global sea-level rise; but on a local scale, glacier mass loss can drastically alter nearby bodies of water and the availability of water resources, as well as threaten to trigger disasters, such as avalanches and devastating spring floods, Hugonnet said.

So it's important to capture both the big picture and fine details.

Related content:

Images of melt: Earth's vanishing ice

Photo gallery: Antarctica's Pine Island Glacier cracks

In photos: Huge icebergs break off Antarctica

This article was originally published by Live Science. Read the original article here.

A Curious Hadrosaur With Super-Weird Teeth Has Been Unearthed in Japan

Artist’s illustration of Y. izanagii (center) with other hadrosaurs. (Masato Hattori)

DAVID NIELD
29 APRIL 2021

Meet Yamatosaurus izanagii, a new genus and species of hadrosaur (or duck-billed dinosaur) discovered on a small island off the southern coast of Japan in 2004, and now identified in a new study.

As well as expanding the dinosaur family tree, the fossil find is going to be useful for experts trying to track the migration patterns of hadrosaurs.

While early members of the hadrosaur family most likely wandered across the Bering Land Bridge from Asia to North America, the migration could have become a two-way street, with some later clades returning.

This has given rise to questions over the origins of some later day hadrosaur genera found in places like Japan. Now, features of the partial skeleton and its estimated date – 71-72 million years ago, just before dinosaurs became extinct – tip the scales in favor of these late-blooming branches of the hadrosaur tree also starting in Asia, instead of in the other direction.

The new species follows the 2019 discovery by the same team of another hadrosaurid called Kamuysaurus, found on the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido.

"These are the first dinosaurs discovered in Japan from the late Cretaceous period," says paleontologist Yoshitsugu Kobayashi, from Hokkaido University Museum in Japan. "Until now, we had no idea what dinosaurs lived in Japan at the end of the dinosaur age."


"The discovery of these Japanese dinosaurs will help us to fill a piece of our bigger vision of how dinosaurs migrated between these two continents."

Part of the reason for the abundance and diversity of hadrosaurs was their chewing ability: the animals had hundreds of tightly packed teeth in their mouths, which were replaced from below as they wore down and fell out.

And it's the dental structure that makes Y. izanagii unique: the number and development of the teeth differs noticeably, and it probably evolved to feed on different types of vegetation to other hadrosaurs.

The right dentary of Y. izanagii distinguishes it from other known hadrosaurs. (SMU)

The researchers also noticed an unexpected level of development in the shoulder and forelimbs, marking an evolutionary step in the species from a bipedal to a quadrupedal dinosaur which could change how we interpret their evolution. It's another interesting variation in a dinosaur that dominated the Cretaceous period.

"In the far north, where much of our our work occurs, hadrosaurs are known as the caribou of the Cretaceous," says paleontologist Anthony Fiorillo, from Southern Methodist University in Texas.


The team behind the new study suggests that hadrosaurs could have crossed from Asia to present-day Alaska via the Bering land bridge, and then spread across almost the whole of North America. Japan was attached to Asia until around 15 million years ago.

And if you're wondering about the name, Yamato is the ancient name for Japan, while Izanagi is a god in Japanese mythology believed to have created the Japanese islands – starting with Awaji Island, where the new Yamatosaurus was found.

There's one more important point to take from the discovery and identification of Y. izanagii: the importance of teamwork. The original bones were uncovered by an amateur fossil hunter in a cement quarry.

"Japan is mostly covered with vegetation with few outcrops for fossil-hunting," says Kobayashi. "The help of amateur fossil-hunters has been very important."

The research has been published in Scientific Reports.

THE HADROSAUR IS ALBERTA'S OFFICIAL DINOSAUR