Wednesday, April 20, 2022

As Earth's climate got wetter, ancient humans were able to migrate more widely, a new scientific model suggests

Paola Rosa-Aquino
Mon, April 18, 2022

Researchers overlaid archaeological discoveries from six species of human, including Homo sapiens, Neanderthals, and Homo heidelbergensis.
Halamka/Getty Images

Where ancient humans lived was heavily influenced by shifting climates, a new study suggests.

Researchers created a detailed simulation on a South Korean supercomputer called ALEPH.

They found a wetter, more habitable climate compelled our human ancestors to wander into new territory.


Before human activity changed Earth's climate, shifting climates shaped where and how ancient humans lived. A scientific model published Wednesday in the journal Nature reveals that human migration over the last 2 million years was shaped by changes in Earth's movement.

Using a powerful South Korean supercomputer, ALEPH, a team of researchers from South Korea and Europe created a detailed simulation of the planet's climate history stretching back to the Pleistocene epoch. The model, which looks at 41,000-year cyclical patterns, incorporates climatic changes in response to small wobbles in Earth's orbit.

Astronomical forces, such as a tilt in Earth's axis and slight shifts in the shape of Earth's orbit around the sun, influenced the levels of solar radiation the planet received, causing increases and decreases in temperature and rainfall levels. It took more than six months for the powerful supercomputer to crunch the numbers, producing the longest comprehensive climate model simulation to date.

Then researchers mapped locations where more than 3,200 archaeological discoveries of ancient fossils and artifacts from our ancestors and relatives in the genus Homo have been found, in order to identify the habitats in which each species was able to thrive.

"Even though different groups of archaic humans preferred different climatic environments, their habitats all responded to climate shifts caused by astronomical changes in Earth's axis wobble, tilt, and orbital eccentricity with timescales ranging from 21,000 to 400,000 years," Axel Timmermann, a climate physicist at Pusan National University in South Korea, who led the study, said in a statement.

The research team noted trends emerging from the data. For instance, they found that around 700,000 years ago, one hominin species — Homo heidelbergensis, believed to be the most recent common ancestor of modern humans and Neanderthals — began expanding from their traditional range because our planet's elliptical orbit created wetter, more habitable climate conditions, making it easier to migrate. Simulations also indicate that modern-day human species, Homo sapiens, might have emerged as a result of period of drought in southern Africa and Eurasia, which forced our early ancestors to adjust to hot, dry regions around 300,000 years ago.


Preferred habitats of Homo sapiens (purple shading, left), Homo heidelbergensis (red shading, middle), Homo neanderthalensis (blue shading, right) calculated from the new simulation.
Institute for Basic Science

Still, the role of climate in human evolution remains a hotly debated idea. Gaps in the archaeological data mean it's hard to directly link an early human species' emergence to a climate event, Tyler Faith, a palaeobiologist at the University of Utah, who was not involved in the study, told Nature. "If solving the mystery of climate change and human evolution could be dealt with in one paper, it would have been done 40 years ago."

Other studies have looked at the link between climate change and human evolution. An influential theory by paleoanthropologist Rick Potts, who was not involved in the new climate model, suggests climate fluctuations starting around 400,000 years ago in East Africa resulted in Homo sapiens being more adaptable to unpredictable shifting environments, according to Science News.

Moreover, there are limits to the hypothetical computer models used in the study, according to Michael Petraglia from the Max Planck Institute. Petraglia wasn't involved with the study, but is the author of a commentary on the findings: "The habitat suitability models are therefore a welcomed scientific tool, but they are only models," he said, adding, "We have a lot of work to do on the ground, recovering not only fossils and archaeology, but reconstructing the environments in which hominins found themselves."

For Timmerman and his team, the new, controversial results add to our understanding of early human movement and evolution. "The global collection of skulls and tools is not randomly distributed in time," Timmermann told Nature, adding, "It follows a pattern."
Cuba: US migration policy 'incoherent' and 'differentiated'


FILE - U.S. flag flies at the U.S. embassy in Havana, Cuba, March 18, 2019 days after the U.S. State Department announced it was eliminating a five-year tourist visa for Cubans. Cuban authorities confirmed on April 19, 2022 that migration talks with the U.S. will take place, the first in four years since the hardening of relations between both countries and amid an increase in arrivals of Cuban citizens to the southern border of the U.S.
 (AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa, File) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)More

The Associated Press
Tue, April 19, 2022, 

HAVANA (AP) — Two days before the opening of migration talks between Cuba and the United States, which have paralyzed for four years, a high-ranking Cuban official lamented Washington's “incoherent” and “differentiated” migration policies, and exhorted Washington to comply with current agreements.

The migration meeting will take place amid a dramatic increase in arrivals of Cubans at the southern border of the United States.

“We are noticing, and now much more these days, that there is a differentiated and incoherent approach by the United States toward the migratory issue,” Deputy Foreign Minister Josefina Vidal told a small group of journalists on Tuesday.

The U.S. is financially helping "many countries in the region in order to reactivate their economies, to help them create jobs,” including supporting health and education projects, said Vidal. Washington's policy is exactly the opposite with Cuba, where it is applying “maximum pressure to the economic order and through coercive measures.”

Cuba's Foreign Ministry said on Twitter that the meeting will be held in Washington Thursday and its delegation will be headed by deputy minister Carlos Fernández de Cossio.

The last of these meetings — which according to agreements between both countries must be held twice a year — took place in July 2018, under the administration of then President Donald Trump.

Trump ended the policy of rapprochement between both nations that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had begun.

Trump increased sanctions against the Caribbean island, from the cancellation of permits to send remittances or cruise ships, to penalties for companies from third countries that operate in Cuba, to limitation of flights and punishment of oil tankers bound for Cuba.

These measures and the pandemic contributed to an economic crisis in Cuba, with shortages of basic products, power outages and the respective queues and rationing.

Trump withdrew embassy staff in 2017. Thousands of people were left with incomplete family reunification processes or were prevented from traveling unless they carried out visa procedures through Guyana. U.S. President Joe Biden did not relax the tough measures, despite his campaign promises.

“We do not see any justification for not giving all visas to Cuban emigrants in Havana and forcing the majority of Cubans to travel (to Guyana), with the costs that this implies,” added Vidal, who was the head of negotiations for the historic rapprochement with the U.S. in 2014. The talks concluded with the reopening of diplomatic offices and Obama’s trip to the island.

According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, in the last six months Cubans were stopped 79,800 times at the southern U.S. border, a little more than double that number seen in the entire 2021 fiscal year and five times more than in 2020.

On Tuesday, Vidal presented a gloomy picture. Cuban authorities have said that in the last five years Washington has failed to comply with the part of a bilateral agreement that establishes the delivery of 20,000 visas per year.

Sea crossings have also increased, either in rustic boats or at the hands of traffickers. From October to date, the U.S. Coast Guard intercepted 1,257 Cubans, compared with 838 in 2021.

As the figures stand, the number of departures is higher than during the so-called “rafter crisis” of 1994 when some 30,000 people arrived through the Straits of Florida and half of those who did so in the Mariel exodus in 1980, when some 124,000 Cubans left.

Vidal said there is a “historical regularity” with how these dramatic migratory peaks occur when the U.S. fails to comply with agreements, increases sanctions or puts obstacles to a more or less normal processing of visas.

Furthermore, “the United States is exerting pressure on countries in the region to establish specific requirements for Cubans in transit, which creates additional obstacles,” she said.

Vidal refused to reveal the agenda Cuba will bring to the talks, but indicated that this issue will be among those mentioned.

In recent months, Panama and Costa Rica announced that they would require transit visas from Cubans, a different position of Nicaragua -- an ally of Cuba -- which lifted this requirement and since November became the new point of departure of Cubans heading to the United States.

Cuba has held migratory talks with countries such as Canada, Belize, and less than a month ago with Mexico, which is seeing more Cubans at it

No rain and no resources; millions of families across the horn of Africa pushed closer to catastrophe each day

NAIROBI – Desperately needed rains across the Horn of Africa have so far failed to materialise, almost a month into the current rainy season, and if these conditions continue, along with stagnant and even decreasing humanitarian aid, the number of hungry people due to drought could spiral from the currently estimated 14 million to 20 million through 2022, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned today.

With Somalia facing the risk of famine, half a million Kenyans one step away from catastrophic levels of hunger and malnutrition rates in Ethiopia well above emergency thresholds, time is fast running out for families who are struggling to survive.  

“We know from past experience that acting early to avert a humanitarian catastrophe is vital, yet our ability to launch the response has been limited due to a lack of funding to date,” said Michael Dunford, WFP’s Regional Director for Eastern Africa. “WFP and other humanitarian agencies have been warning the international community since last year that this drought could be disastrous if we didn’t act immediately, but funding has failed to materialise at the scale required.”

The situation has been compounded by the fallout of conflict in Ukraine, with the cost of food and fuel soaring to unprecedented highs. Drought-affected countries across the Horn of Africa are likely to be the hardest hit by impacts of the conflict - the cost of a food basket has already risen, particularly in Ethiopia (66 percent) and Somalia (36 percent) which depend heavily on wheat from Black Sea basin countries, and the disruption in imports further threatens food security. Shipping costs on some routes have doubled since January 2022.

During the 2016/17 drought in the Horn of Africa, catastrophe was avoided through early action. Humanitarian assistance was scaled up before there was widespread hunger; saving lives and averting a devastating famine. In 2022, due to a severe lack of resourcing, there are growing fears that it won’t be possible to prevent the looming disaster – and millions will suffer as a result.

WFP last appealed for desperately needed funding in February yet less than 4 percent of what was needed was raised. Over the next six months, WFP needs US$473 million to scale-up assistance and save lives across the three countries – Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia.  

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In Ethiopia crops have failed, over a million livestock have died and an estimated 7.2 million people wake up hungry every day in southern and south-eastern Ethiopia as the country grapples with the most severe drought since 1981. WFP is on the ground, aiming to support 3.5 million people with emergency food and nutrition assistance, school feeding programmes as well as climate change adaptation and resilience building activities. Immediate and scaled-up assistance is critical to avoid a major humanitarian crisis in the drought-affected areas of Ethiopia and help communities become more resilient to extreme climate shocks. WFP urgently requires US$239 million over the next six months to respond to the drought in southern Ethiopia.

In Kenya, the number of people in need of assistance has risen more than fourfold in less than two years. According to the Short Rains Assessment, the rapidly escalating drought has left 3.1 million people acutely food insecure (IPC3 and above), including half a million Kenyans who are facing emergency levels of hunger (IPC4). WFP urgently requires US$42 million over the next six months to meet the needs of the most critically affected communities in northern and eastern parts of the country.   

In Somalia, some 6 million people (40 percent of the population) are facing acute food insecurity (IPC3 or above) and, alarmingly, there is a very real risk of famine in the coming months if the rains don’t arrive and humanitarian assistance isn’t received. WFP is scaling up emergency food and nutrition assistance to support 3 million people by the middle of this year. However, a US$192 million relief funding gap over the next six months means that WFP has less than half of what it needs to keep scaling up. As a result, WFP is having to prioritise both nutrition (where treatment has taken precedence over prevention) and food assistance. WFP has launched its largest anticipatory action intervention so far in Africa, equipping vulnerable Somali households in drought hotspots with additional cash transfers and a public information campaign to help them withstand the impact of a potential fourth failed rainy season. WFP is also continuing livelihoods, resilience and food systems programmes to protect recent development gains and support vulnerable Somalis against droughts and other crises in the long term.


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The United Nations World Food Programme is the world’s largest humanitarian organization, saving lives in emergencies and using food assistance to build a pathway to peace, stability and prosperity for people recovering from conflict, disasters and the impact of climate change.

 

Follow us on Twitter @wfp_media @WFP_Africa

UK
Parents flood teachers with ‘aggressive’ messages and expect 24/7 support, union warns


‘Parents and students have got into the habit of firing off emails 24/7, with the banal, bizarre, and sometimes, more worryingly, aggressive and accusatory messages,’ the union warned


Teachers have come under increased pressure from parents / Getty Images
By Bill McLoughlin
2 days ago

Teachers are now being inundated with “aggressive” messages from parents who expect round the clock support, a leading union has said.

Due to the pandemic, the National Association of Schoolmasters Union of Women Teachers (NASUWT) said working hours “had now become blurred”.

The union said parents now expect to be able to reach teachers 24 hours a day and sometimes send “bizarre and banal” messages.

Member Sharon Bishop said at the annual conference on Sunday, many have been told to download apps such as ClassDojo, a platform which allows teachers, students and families to communicate.

She said: “Many of us have been told to download apps such as ClassDojo to our phones, and parents and students have got into the habit of firing off emails 24/7, with the banal, bizarre, and sometimes, more worryingly, aggressive and accusatory messages.

"They seem to feel they can assess us 24/7. Working hours and parameters have been blurred since the pandemic.”

Another member, Michael Poulton said a firend and colleague had suffered mental health problems and committed suicide due to the increased strain on his job.

He added: “He didn't lose the battle to Covid-19. He lost the battle to mental ill health, and he took his own life during the first lockdown.

"We didn't get the chance to mourn Chris properly. During the lockdown we were able to attend his funeral but it was all socially distanced.

"We weren't able to really share our loss and say how we felt, and when we got back to school, it was almost like we just had to carry on as if nothing had happened, and there are people with mental scars.

"There are people who have lost loved ones to Covid, lost loved ones to mental ill health. And do we know how to cope with it?"

On Friday, a survey commissioned by the NASUWT found seven out of 10 teachers in England have considered resigning over the past year.

 COMMENTARY

David Suzuki: Fossil fuel funding is an investment in disaster

  • Costs for wind, solar, and battery-storage power have dropped by as much as 85 percent since 2010. Pictured: the Solnova Solar Power Station in Spain.WIKIMEDIA COMMONS/ABENGOA SOLAR

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment shows the world is unnecessarily headed toward climate catastrophe and all it would take to resolve the crisis is decisive global action. That means no new fossil fuel development or infrastructure.

How has the world responded? With lots of talk and inadequate, often counterproductive measures. Banks continue to pump billions into coal, oil, and gas development; governments are ramping up production; and wars are being fought to keep the polluting, climate-altering fuels flowing.

UN secretary general António Guterres called the IPCC report “a litany of broken climate promises”. Within days of the release of Part 3 of the four-part assessment, as well as Canada’s emissions reduction plan, our federal government approved the Bay du Nord offshore oil megaproject in Newfoundland and Labrador—albeit with 137 conditions.

Banks have been increasing investments in fossil fuel developments and infrastructure, and industry lobbyists are using Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to justify calls for ramping up oil and gas production.

report by Oil Change International found that “fossil fuel financing from the world’s 60 largest banks has reached nearly USD $4.6 trillion in the six years since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, with $742 billion in 2021 alone”. Alberta oilsands financing jumped 51 percent from 2020 to 2021, to $23.3 billion, much of it from Canadian banks RBC and TD Canada Trust. Banks have also invested heavily in Arctic and offshore oil and gas, fracking, liquefied fossil gas and coal mining and power.

Meanwhile, estimated costs for the Trans Mountain pipeline project, which Canada’s government bought in 2018 for US$4.5 billion, have ballooned by 70 percent, to $21.4 billion!

Think of what that money could do invested in energy efficiency, renewable sources, and protection and restoration of natural areas that sequester carbon.

As Guterres wrote, “So far, high-emitting governments and corporations are not just turning a blind eye; they are adding fuel to the flames by continuing to invest in climate-choking industries. Scientists warn that we are already perilously close to tipping points that could lead to cascading and irreversible climate effects.”

It doesn’t have to be this way. The recent IPCC report “Mitigation of Climate Change” lays out a viable plan to reduce emissions and forestall the worst impacts of a rapidly heating world. It wouldn’t cost much more than we’re now spending to keep burning fossil fuels. We’d also save enormous amounts by avoiding the health care and infrastructure costs of pollution and extreme weather-related events such as floods, droughts, heat domes, and storms.

Along with improved energy efficiency, renewable energy is now the most cost-effective way to power societies. Costs of wind and solar power and battery storage have dropped by up to 85 percent since 2010.

“It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5° C (2.7° F),” said IPCC Working Group III cochair Jim Skea in a news release. “Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.”

We have important choices to make, choices that will determine the future for us, our children and grandchildren and those yet to be born. Although much of the onus is on governments, banks and industry to take the big steps, individuals have a role. Ensuring your investments aren’t fuelling the climate crisis is a start, by divesting from funds and banks that support the industry and switching to nonfossil funds.

People can also join the growing movement calling for change, through activism, community engagement, political pressure, and voting. Reducing meat consumption, avoiding flying, and relying less on private automobiles will also help.

As Guterres said, “Climate activists are sometimes depicted as dangerous radicals. But the truly dangerous radicals are the countries that are increasing the production of fossil fuels. Investing in new fossil fuels infrastructure is moral and economic madness.”

The Sixth Assessment consists of four parts, based on thousands of studies representing the most up-to-date climate science from around the world, with the final part, a synthesis, to be released in September. The first assessment was released in 1990, and the world has since consistently failed to heed the increasingly urgent warnings.

In the face of overwhelming evidence, ignoring the world’s scientists or believing they’re somehow mistaken is an unnecessary, suicidal gamble.

David Suzuki is a scientist, broadcaster, author, and cofounder of the David Suzuki Foundation. Written with contributions from foundation senior writer and editor Ian Hanington. Learn more at davidsuzuki.org.
Better ventilation would create a healthier workplace — but companies have to invest

Liz Szabo
April 19, 2022

Mark Marston slides a higher-quality air filter back into an upgraded HVAC system in Portland, Maine. The new system can bring in about 30 percent more outside air.
Brianna Soukup | Portland Press Herald via Getty

Americans are abandoning their masks. They're done with physical distancing. And, let's face it, some people are just never going to get vaccinated.

Yet a lot can still be done to prevent COVID-19 infections and curb the pandemic.

A growing coalition of epidemiologists and aerosol scientists say that improved ventilation could be a powerful tool against the coronavirus — if businesses are willing to invest the money.

"The science is airtight," said Joseph Allen, director of the Healthy Buildings program at Harvard University's T.H. Chan School of Public Health. "The evidence is overwhelming."

Although scientists have known for years that good ventilation can reduce the spread of respiratory diseases such as influenza and measles, the notion of improved ventilation as a front-line weapon in stemming the spread of COVID received little attention until March. That's when the White House launched a voluntary initiative encouraging schools and work sites to assess and improve their ventilation.

The federal American Rescue Plan Act provides $122 billion for ventilation inspections and upgrades in schools, as well as $350 billion to state and local governments for a range of community-level pandemic recovery efforts, including ventilation and filtration. The White House is also encouraging private employers to voluntarily improve their indoor air quality and has provided guidelines on best practices.
Returning to the office

The White House initiative comes as many employees are returning to the office after two years of remote work and while the highly contagious BA.2 omicron subvariant gains ground. If broadly embraced, experts say, the attention to indoor air quality will provide gains against COVID and beyond, quelling the spread of other diseases and cutting incidents of asthma and allergy attacks.

The pandemic has revealed the dangerous consequences of poor ventilation, as well as the potential for improvement. Dutch researchers, for example, linked a 2020 COVID outbreak at a nursing home to inadequate ventilation. A choir rehearsal in Skagit Valley, Wash., early in the pandemic became a superspreader event after a sick person infected 52 of the 60 other singers.

Ventilation upgrades have been associated with lower infection rates in Georgia elementary schools, among other sites. A simulation by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that combining mask-wearing and the use of portable air cleaners with high-efficiency particulate air filters, or HEPA filters, could reduce coronavirus transmission by 90 percent.

Scientists stress that ventilation should be viewed as one strategy in a three-pronged assault on COVID, along with vaccination, which provides the best protection against infection, and high-quality, well-fitted masks, which can reduce a person's exposure to viral particles by up to 95 percent. Improved airflow provides an additional layer of protection — and can be a vital tool for people who have not been fully vaccinated, people with weakened immune systems and children too young to be immunized.

One of the most effective ways to curb disease transmission indoors is to swap out most of the air in a room — replacing the stale, potentially germy air with fresh air from outside or running it through high-efficiency filters — as often as possible. Without that exchange, "if you have someone in the room who's sick, the viral particles are going to build up," said Linsey Marr, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Virginia Tech.
Adopting new ventilation guidelines

Exchanging the air five times an hour cuts the risk of coronavirus transmission in half, according to research cited by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. Yet most buildings today exchange the air only once or twice an hour.

That's partly because industry ventilation standards, written by a professional group called the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers, or ASHRAE, are voluntary. Ventilation standards have generally been written to limit odors and dust, not control viruses, though the society in 2020 released new ventilation guidelines for reducing exposure to the coronavirus.

But that doesn't mean building managers will adopt them. ASHRAE has no power to enforce its standards. And although many cities and states incorporate them into local building codes for new construction, older structures are usually not held to the same standards.

Federal agencies have little authority over indoor ventilation. The Environmental Protection Agency regulates standards for outdoor air quality, while the Occupational Safety and Health Administration enforces indoor-air-quality requirements only in health care facilities.

David Michaels, an epidemiologist and a professor at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health, said that he'd like to see a strong federal standard for indoor air quality but that such calls inevitably raise objections from the business community for reasons including cost.

Two years into the pandemic, it's unclear how many office buildings, warehouses and other places of work have been retooled to meet ASHRAE's recommended upgrades. No official body has conducted a national survey. But as facilities managers grapple with ways to bring employees back safely, advocates say ventilation is increasingly part of the conversation.

"In the first year of the pandemic, it felt like we were the only ones talking about ventilation, and it was falling on deaf ears," said Allen, with Harvard's Healthy Buildings program. "But there are definitely, without a doubt, many companies that have taken airborne spread seriously. It's no longer just a handful of people."

A group of Head Start centers in Vancouver, Wash., offers an example of the kinds of upgrades that can have an impact. Ventilation systems now pump only outdoor air into buildings, rather than mixing fresh and recirculated air together, said R. Brent Ward, the facilities and maintenance operations manager for 33 of the federally funded early childhood education programs. Ward said the upgrades cost $30,000, which he funded using the centers' regular federal Head Start operating grant.
The downside of circulating air

Circulating fresh air helps flush viruses out of vents so they don't build up indoors. But there's a downside: higher cost and energy use, which increases the greenhouse gases fueling climate change. "You spend more because your heat is coming on more often in order to warm up the outdoor air," Ward said.

Ward said his program can afford the higher heating bills, at least for now, because of past savings from reduced energy use. Still, cost is an impediment to a more extensive revamp: Ward would like to install more efficient air filters, but the buildings — some of which are 30 years old — would have to be retrofitted to accommodate them.

Simply hiring a consultant to assess a building's ventilation needs can cost from hundreds to thousands of dollars. And high-efficiency air filters can cost twice as much as standard ones.

Businesses also must be wary of companies that market pricey but unproven cleaning systems. A 2021 KHN investigation found that more than 2,000 schools across the country had used pandemic relief funds to purchase air-purifying devices that use technology that's been shown to be ineffective or a potential source of dangerous byproducts.

Meghan McNulty, an Atlanta mechanical engineer focused on indoor air quality, said building managers often can provide cleaner air without expensive renovations. For example, they should ensure they are piping in as much outdoor air as required by local codes and should program their daytime ventilation systems to run continuously, rather than only when heating or cooling the air. She also recommends that building managers leave ventilation systems running into the evening if people are using the building, rather than routinely turning them down.
A boost from local governments

Some local governments have given businesses and residents a boost. Agencies in Montana and the San Francisco Bay Area last year gave away free portable air cleaners to vulnerable residents, including people living in homeless shelters. All the devices use HEPA filters, which have been shown to remove coronavirus particles from the air.

In Washington state, the public health department for Seattle and King County has drawn on $3.9 million in federal pandemic funding to create an indoor air program. The agency hired staff members to provide free ventilation assessments to businesses and community organizations, and has distributed nearly 7,800 portable air cleaners. Recipients included homeless shelters, child care centers, churches, restaurants and other businesses.

Although the department has run out of filters, staff members still provide free technical assistance, and the agency's website offers extensive guidance on improving indoor air quality, including instructions for turning box fans into low-cost air cleaners.

"We did not have an indoor air program before COVID began," said Shirlee Tan, a toxicologist for Public Health — Seattle & King County. "It's been a huge gap, but we didn't have any funding or capacity."

Allen, who has long championed "healthy buildings," said he welcomes the new emphasis on indoor air, even as he and others are frustrated it took a pandemic to jolt the conversation. Well before COVID brought the issue to the fore, he said, research was clear that improved ventilation correlated with myriad benefits, including higher test scores for kids, fewer missed school days, and better productivity among office workers.

"This is a massive shift that is, quite honestly, 30 years overdue," Allen said. "It is an incredible moment to hear the White House say that the indoor environment matters for your health."

KHN (Kaiser Health News) is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues. It is an editorially independent operating program of KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation).

Copyright 2022 Kaiser Health News. To see more, visit Kaiser Health News.
Rick Scott's loony-tunes 11-point plan: Classic GOP projection, and a roadmap to theocracy

No wonder Mitch McConnell is unhappy: Scott's "batsh*t" plan reveals way too much about what Republicans want


By KIRK SWEARINGEN
SALON
PUBLISHED APRIL 19, 2022
U.S. Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) arrives as Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Shalanda Young is testifying before the Senate Budget Committee at the Dirksen Senate Office Building on March 30, 2022 in Washington, DC. Young is testifying on President Biden's budget request for fiscal Year 2023. 
(Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Why do I consider Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, the wealthiest person in the U.S. Senate, so thoroughly dreadful? Is it his background in defrauding the American taxpayer? His penchant for spreading disinformation? His smarmy habit of getting all Jesus-y, even in the face of a public health crisis?

It was indeed very Christian of Scott to release his new plan to "save" America — but I don't mean that as praise. At least he's honest: The gentleman from the Sunshine State openly advocates for dismantling the federal government, undoing all federal laws and regulations and effectively transforming our democracy into a white male Christian theocracy.

OK, not in so many words, but that's the idea. For some reason Scott dispensed with a hyphen in the title of his "11 Point Plan to Rescue America" — is punctuation "woke" now? It's so hard to keep up — which might better be described as a Christian-right reboot of the Ten Commandments (plus one).
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RELATED: Republicans pick Putin over democracy — and Rick Scott's creepy blueprint for America shows why

Before we discuss Scott's plan to save the country, it's worth mentioning that as founder of Columbia Healthcare and then CEO of the merged hospital corporations Columbia/HCA, Scott was in charge in 1997 when the company was fined $1.7 billion for overbilling and defrauding Medicare and Medicaid, at the time the largest health care fraud in U.S. history. He was forced to resign and said he took "responsibility" for the fraud, said responsibility apparently requiring him to invoke the Fifth Amendment some 75 times while under oath.

Scott kept his chin up, however, and walked away with a huge financial package, including some $300 million in stock. An earlier excursion in business at Solantic, a Florida chain of walk-in urgent care clinics, resulted in several lawsuits around discriminatory hiring practices. Randy Schultz, in an opinion piece for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, wrote that Scott "built his political career with a fortune based on fraud.

Florida voters, in their wisdom, elected this guy twice as governor and then sent him to the Senate in 2018. Lately he's been given to calling Democrats "the enemy within," and now he wants to tell us how the country can be "saved."

Salon's Heather Digby Parton thinks that Democrats should shine as much light as possible on Scott's plan, since it is "batshit lunacy" yet has been embraced by many Republicans. As she recently put it:

Much of it is the usual right-wing cant about work and family and law and order. But there is some stuff in this thing that will make for some beautiful ads if the Democrats can find it in themselves to get off the defensive and tell the American people about it.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was apparently horrified that Scott's plan was published (remember, the Republican Party refused to have platform for the 2020 presidential campaign), but Scott himself fearlessly and correctly observes that "Americans deserve to know what we will do when given the chance to govern."

One might note here that Republicans always have a chance to govern — every single day — by choosing to work with members of the other party to find suitable compromises, rather than by employing scorched-earth tactics against their "enemies"— but, you know, whatever The oddly cherubic yet spiteful Newt Gingrich — who long ago took Rush Limbaugh's admonition to treat the opposition as your enemy and ran with it — is smiling somewhere in the opulence that negative life work too often brings. He very much likes the plan.

I'm tempted to winnow these down to a few highlights, the way comedian George Carlin famously did with the Ten Commandments, which he got down to just two (along with a third he added himself).

On Scott's Point 1, "Education": I have no problem with the Pledge of Allegiance in schools, even if it's a bit odd, given their insurrectionist bent and love for foreign despots, for Trumpists to demand that children prove their loyalty to the country. Let's compromise: We'll leave in the mention of God, which was added to the pledge in 1954 in an attempt to thwart "godless communism," and then we outlaw the use of the U.S. flag as an advertising vehicle, flying enormously over used-car lots and the like. To avoid making the flag meaningless (if not noxious) with overuse, let's fly it only over public buildings, like the public schools you are trying to destroy with your "classical" charter schools, and, as desired, on private residences.

Scott's Point 7, "Fair Fraud-Free Elections," is just out-and-out projection. With these guys, every accusation is an admission (which is deeply troubling when it comes to their recent focus on pedophilia). In this Toddler Nation of ours, even senators — men and women who are said to cool the passions of House members — are given to the schoolyard taunt: "No, you!" One thinks of candidate Trump's "No puppet, no puppet! You're the puppet!" when Hillary Clinton said that if he were elected, he'd be cavorting at the end of Vladimir Putin's strings. We know how that worked out.

Scott's Point 10, "Religious Liberty and Big Tech," clearly has a special resonance for the evangelical component of his audience. "Americans will be free to welcome God into all aspects of our lives" is in boldface type, and OK, that appears reasonable enough. As always, the devil is in the detail. Scott goes on to reveal that what he means by "all aspects" is that the personal religious beliefs of people like him should be pushed into public policies that affect all of us, which is a form of government known as theocracy. What he means, but does not quite say, is that certain Americans will be free to welcome their idea of God into all aspects of other Americans' lives.

Last, but perhaps not best, comes Point 11, "America First," where Scott informs us, "We are Americans, not globalists." Yeah, OK — but so what? Who says that being American and having a global consciousness are incompatible? Most of us can walk and chew gum at the same time, and the world is proving to be a surprisingly small place.

Enough with my sniping. (Scott cleverly anticipates how his plan will be mocked by "the wokes.") If you read it for yourself, be sure to delve into the details. No matter what Mitch McConnell says, this appears to be an accurate reflection of what the GOP wants to do if or when they take full control in Washington again: Dismantle the federal government and its "deep state" of experts; have a do-over on all federal laws and regulations (someone seems to be still smarting from that federal charge of fraud); force all Americans to pay taxes, even the poor (so they have "skin in the game"); end all public discussion of race and gender; and force schoolchildren to pledge their allegiance to a nation whose history has been whitewashed and sanitized by right-wing Christians.
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In an opinion piece in the Orlando Weekly, Jeffrey C. Billman notes that the plan is "Scott's attempt to marry the anti-tax, pro-austerity wing [of the GOP] with Trump's populist, authoritarian wing." Billman writes that the plan is largely a familiar litany of grievances from white male conservatives who are worried about losing their leg-up in society:


From start to finish, this is an authoritarian document dressed up in the language of freedom. Like all variants of right-wing populism, it focuses the grievances of its target demo (a loss of cultural primacy) at scapegoats (the wokes).

I will mention again that Scott, supposedly a devout Christian, has taken to calling his political opponents the enemy, which, it hardly needs to be pointed out, is a precursor to violence and even genocide. When it comes to a holy war against the secular, socialistic, "woke" enemies of America, I guess all bets are off. It's disturbingly similar to the language of Putin and his official mouthpieces in describing Ukrainians and Russian dissenters as "scum" and "traitors," likening them to gnats that must be spat out of one's mouth.


In Carlin's famous Ten Commandments routine, he holds off a while from commenting on the Fifth Commandment. Those who call themselves religious, he observes, have never had that much of a problem with murder: "More people have been killed in the name of God than for any other reason….The more devout they are, the more they see murder as being negotiable."

Scott's Point 10, which attempts to pit religious liberty against the "wokeness" of big tech, ends with an implicit threat of violence: "Remember – the Second Amendment was established in order to protect the freedoms guaranteed in the First Amendment."

That's like killing two birds with one stone tablet: Scott is willing to encourage violence against his political opponents while simultaneously grossly misrepresenting the meaning of the first two amendments to the U.S. Constitution.

Honestly, we owe Scott a debt of thanks for setting this out in plain type. Let me try to repay that with my own 11-point plan to save America, in a spirit of give-and-take and constructive debate, which is sometimes necessary even with one's "enemies":

In a democracy, you should not lie or spread misinformation — or trust anyone who does. Democracy depends on reality-based information and the best reporting of what is known right now. Let's make it illegal for any corporate entity to willfully disseminate false information.

You should not treat people who are different from you — in race, color, religion, gender identity, sexual orientation or anything else — as second-class citizens. America's not-so-secret strength has always been in its diversity.

Your religious freedom is not a license to harass others with your personal beliefs. Your faith is no doubt a strength for you; hold it close and know that many of us envy the solace you derive from it. But keep your faith out of our bodies, our relationships, our libraries and our critical scientific research. As historian Garry Wills put it, the separation of church and state is the one unique, genius thing in our Constitution.

You likely have your hands full with your own love life. Don't pass judgment on the consenting activities of other adults. Get your business out of everyone else's business (see #3). In a world reeling with hate, why would anyone attack love?

You should not ban books (unless you want to see them on the bestseller list). You say you believe in the free market and in free speech. Stop being outrageous flaming hypocrites on this stuff.

You should be careful in picking your populist pals. The "elite" are not always who you think they are. Ron DeSantis, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton all went to Ivy League schools, no matter what dialect they affect when they sidle up to you to talk self-serving nonsense.

Your culture wars are an attempt to divide and distract Americans. They are pushed down your throats by unscrupulous politicians and true enemies of America, like Vladimir Putin and his lapdog Donald Trump. They should be ignored.

Your freedom of speech is not under attack. You can say pretty much anything you want, at home as well as in the public square. But other people have every right to respond, and even to challenge what you say. Threatening the lives of election administrators, public health officials or school board members, however, is a crime, and goes way beyond what you call "cancel culture." Banning novels and the teaching of real history makes it seem like you are canceling culture for real.

You should not elect obvious grifters to public office. America does best when it is not led by sociopaths and criminals.

You should bear in mind that we need each other. When Americans come together in mutual effort — supporting each other after natural disasters, or coming to the aid of Ukraine — it's a beautiful, powerful thing. We have far more in common than we are led to believe.

We all need to get out more often — to walk in nature, see a play, hear some music and, most of all, stop thinking about our political disagreements. We could all stand to gain some perspective on the world and each other. What Abraham Lincoln said at Gettysburg about the "unfinished work" of American democracy will always be true. To continue that work, we could use a break. People of good faith are not relentless, but we need to show endurance against the unceasing attack on democracy.


Read more on the current state of the Grand Old Party:

Trump's trashing of Ukraine pays off for Russia: Republicans vote to reject NATO — and democracy

KIRK SWEARINGEN
Kirk Swearingen is a poet and independent journalist. He is a graduate of the Missouri School of Journalism, and his work has appeared in Delmar, MARGIE, Bloom, the American Journal of Poetry, Riverfront Times, Medium and Salon.
A swarm of 85,000 earthquakes at the Antarctic Orca submarine volcano

Date: April 13, 2022

Source: GFZ GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Helmholtz Centre

Summary:
In a remote area, a mix of geophysical methods identifies magma transfer below the seafloor as the cause.

FULL STORY

Volcanoes can be found even off the coast of Antarctica. At the deep-sea volcano Orca, which has been inactive for a long time, a sequence of more than 85,000 earthquakes was registered in 2020, a swarm quake that reached proportions not previously observed for this region. The fact that such events can be studied and described in great detail even in such remote and therefore poorly instrumented areas is now shown by the study of an international team published in the journal "Communications Earth and Environment." Led by Simone Cesca from the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) Potsdam, researchers from Germany, Italy, Poland and the United States were involved. With the combined application of seismological, geodetic and remote sensing techniques, they were able to determine how the rapid transfer of magma from the Earth's mantle near the crust-mantle boundary to almost the surface led to the swarm quake.

The Orca volcano between the tip of South America and Antarctica

Swarm quakes mainly occur in volcanically active regions. The movement of fluids in the Earth's crust is therefore suspected as the cause. Orca seamount is a large submarine shield volcano with a height of about 900 metres above the sea floor and a base diameter of about 11 kilometres. It is located in the Bransfield Strait, an ocean channel between the Antarctic Peninsula and the South Shetland Islands, southwest of the southern tip of Argentina.

"In the past, seismicity in this region was moderate. However, in August 2020, an intense seismic swarm began there, with more than 85,000 earthquakes within half a year. It represents the largest seismic unrest ever recorded there," reports Simone Cesca, scientist in GFZ's Section 2.1 Earthquake and Volcano Physics and lead author of the now published study. At the same time as the swarm, a lateral ground displacement of more than ten centimetres and a small uplift of about one centimetre was recorded on neighbouring King George Island.

Challenges of research in a remote area

Cesca studied these events with colleagues from the National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics -- OGS and the University of Bologna (Italy), the Polish Academy of Sciences, Leibniz University Hannover, the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) and the University of Potsdam. The challenge was that there are few conventional seismological instruments in the remote area, namely only two seismic and two GNSS stations (ground stations of the Global Navigation Satellite System which measure ground displacement). In order to reconstruct the chronology and development of the unrest and to determine its cause, the team therefore additionally analysed data from farther seismic stations and data from InSAR satellites, which use radar interferometry to measure ground displacements. An important step was the modelling of the events with a number of geophysical methods in order to interpret the data correctly.

Reconstructing the seismic events

The researchers backdated the start of the unrest to 10 August 2020 and extend the original global seismic catalog, containing only 128 earthquakes, to more than 85,000 events. The swarm peaked with two large earthquakes on 2 October (Mw 5.9) and 6 November (Mw 6.0) 2020 before subsiding. By February 2021, seismic activity had decreased significantly.

The scientists identify a magma intrusion, the migration of a larger volume of magma, as the main cause of the swarm quake, because seismic processes alone cannot explain the observed strong surface deformation on King George Island. The presence of a volumetric magma intrusion can be confirmed independently on the basis of geodetic data.

Starting from its origin, seismicity first migrated upward and then laterally: deeper, clustered earthquakes are interpreted as the response to vertical magma propagation from a reservoir in the upper mantle or at the crust-mantle boundary, while shallower, crustal earthquakes extend NE-SW triggered on top of the laterally growing magma dike, which reaches a length of about 20 kilometres.

The seismicity decreased abruptly by mid November, after about three months of sustained activity, in correspondence to the occurrence of the largest earthquakes of the series, with a magnitude Mw 6.0. The end of the swarm can be explained by the loss of pressure in the magma dike, accompanying the slip of a large fault, and could mark the timing of a seafloor eruption which, however, could not yet be confirmed by other data.

By modeling GNSS and InSAR data, the scientists estimated that the volume of the Bransfield magmatic intrusion is in the range 0.26-0.56 km³. That makes this episode also the largest magmatic unrest ever geophysically monitored in Antarctica.

Simone Cesca continues: "Our study represents a new successful investigation of a seismo-volcanic unrest at a remote location on Earth, where the combined application of seismology, geodesy and remote sensing techniques are used to understand earthquake processes and magma transport in poorly instrumented areas. This is one of the few cases where we can use geophysical tools to observe intrusion of magma from the upper mantle or crust-mantle boundary into the shallow crust -- a rapid transfer of magma from the mantle to almost the surface that takes only a few days."

Journal Reference:
Simone Cesca, Monica Sugan, Łukasz Rudzinski, Sanaz Vajedian, Peter Niemz, Simon Plank, Gesa Petersen, Zhiguo Deng, Eleonora Rivalta, Alessandro Vuan, Milton Percy Plasencia Linares, Sebastian Heimann, Torsten Dahm. Massive earthquake swarm driven by magmatic intrusion at the Bransfield Strait, Antarctica. Communications Earth & Environment, 2022; 3 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00418-5
Neural network model helps predict site-specific impacts of earthquakes

Date: April 18, 2022

Source: Hiroshima University

Summary:
In disaster mitigation planning for future large earthquakes, seismic ground motion predictions are a crucial part of early warning systems. The way the ground moves depends on how the soil layers amplify the seismic waves (described in a mathematical site 'amplification factor'). However, geophysical explorations to understand soil conditions are costly, limiting characterization of site amplification factors to date. Using data on microtremors in Japan, a neural network model can estimate site-specific responses to earthquakes based on subsurface soil conditions.

FULL STORY

In disaster mitigation planning for future large earthquakes, seismic ground motion predictions are a crucial part of early warning systems and seismic hazard mapping. The way the ground moves depends on how the soil layers amplify the seismic waves (described in a mathematical site "amplification factor"). However, geophysical explorations to understand soil conditions are costly, limiting characterization of site amplification factors to date.

A new study by researchers from Hiroshima University published on April 5 in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America introduced a novel artificial intelligence (AI)-based technique for estimating site amplification factors from data on ambient vibrations or microtremors of the ground.

Subsurface soil conditions, which determine how earthquakes affect a site, vary substantially. Softer soils, for example, tend to amplify ground motion from an earthquake, while hard substrates may dampen it. Ambient vibrations of the ground or microtremors that occur all over the Earth's surface caused by human or atmospheric disturbances can be used to investigate soil conditions. Measuring microtremors provides valuable information about the amplification factor (AF) of a site, thus its vulnerability to damage from earthquakes due to its response to tremors.

The recent study from Hiroshima University researchers introduced a new way to estimate site effects from microtremor data. "The proposed method would contribute to more accurate and more detailed seismic ground motion predictions for future earthquakes," says lead author and associate professor Hiroyuki Miura in the Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering. The study investigated the relationship between microtremor data and site amplification factors using a deep neural network with the goal of developing a model that could be applied at any site worldwide.

The researchers looked into a common method known as Horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (MHVR) which is usually used to estimate the resonant frequency of the seismic ground. It can be generated from microtremor data; ambient seismic vibrations are analyzed in three dimensions to figure out the resonant frequency of sediment layers on top of bedrock as they vibrate. Previous research has shown, however, that MHVR cannot reliably be used directly as the site amplification factor. So, this study proposed a deep neural network model for estimating site amplification factors from the MHVR data.

The study used 2012-2020 microtremor data from 105 sites in the Chugoku district of western Japan. The sites are part of Japan's national seismograph network that contains about 1700 observation stations distributed in a uniform grid at 20 km intervals across Japan. Using a generalized spectral inversion technique, which separates out the parameters of source, propagation, and site, the researchers analyzed site-specific amplifications.

Data from each site were divided into a training set, a validation set, and a test set. The training set were used to teach a deep neural network. The validation set were used in the network's iterative optimization of a model to describe the relationship between the microtremor MHVRs and the site amplification factors. The test data were a completely unknown set used to evaluate the performance of the model.

The model performed well on the test data, demonstrating its potential as a predictive tool for characterizing site amplification factors from microtremor data. However, notes Miura, "the number of training samples analyzed in this study (80) sites is still limited," and should be expanded before assuming that the neural network model applies nationwide or globally. The researchers hope to further optimize the model with a larger dataset.

Rapid and cost-effective techniques are needed for more accurate seismic ground motion prediction since the relationship is not always linear. Explains Miura, "By applying the proposed method, site amplification factors can be automatically and accurately estimated from microtremor data observed at arbitrary site." Going forward, the study authors aim to continue to refine advanced AI techniques to evaluate the nonlinear responses of the ground to earthquakes.

This research was funded by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), Japan, and Neural Network Console provided by SONY (2021).

Journal Reference:
Da Pan, Hiroyuki Miura, Tatsuo Kanno, Michiko Shigefuji, Tetsuo Abiru. Deep-Neural-Network-Based Estimation of Site Amplification Factor from Microtremor H/V Spectral Ratio. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2022; DOI: 10.1785/0120210300