Thursday, December 29, 2022

Soviet experiment
Published December 28, 2022 




EXACTLY 100 years ago today, representatives from the socialist republics of Russia, Ukraine, Byelorussia (now Belarus) and Transcaucasia (Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia) signed a treaty that set up the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). The entity, expanded from the 1920s to the 1940s, lasted almost exactly 69 years.

Today’s centenary — the treaty was formally ratified two days later by the Congress of Soviets of the USSR — is unlikely to be widely commemorated, notwithstanding the Soviet Union’s immense role in the shape and trajectory of the 20th century.

The Bolshevik Revolution was five years old by 1922, and had warded off the immediate military threat, including foreign intervention from the usual Western suspects, thanks in large part to Leon Trotsky’s ability to reorganise a ragtag fighting force into the brutally efficient Red Army.

The reprieve from conflict had made it possible to exchange ‘war communism’ for a ‘new economic policy’ that permitted small-scale private enterprise and to some extent conciliated the peasants distraught over the practice whereby a large proportion of their harvest was requisitioned for the cities, with poor recompense.

A revolutionary upheaval entered phase two a century ago.

By 1922, though, the architect of the October Revolution was himself dismayed by its direction, and coming up with ideas to redress its decline. But Vladimir Ilyich Lenin suffered two strokes that year, and his own descent eventually proved irremediable. He recovered partially from the first one and returned to work, but a second stroke led to exile from the helm of affairs in Moscow for medical reasons.

But his mental acuity remained largely intact until a third stroke in 1923 stripped him of the ability to speak for the remaining eight months of his life. In December 1922 and into January, however, he was able to dictate a series of notes that subsequently became known as Lenin’s will or testament. They covered a range of topics, from reorganisation of the Communist Party to restructuring of the economy, as well as the conditions under which former elements of the tsarist empire could or should be incorporated into the USSR.

He didn’t call it ‘perestroika’, but that’s what his proposals were tantamount to. Most of them went practically unheeded, and some were even suppressed from circulation for three to four decades. Among them was Lenin’s acknowledgment on Dec 30, 1922 — the very day that the union treaty was ratified — that his insistence on the autonomy of constituent republics of the USSR and their right to secede would be worthless if it comes “from the same Russian apparatus which … we took over from tsarism and slightly anointed with Soviet oil”.

He goes on to describe that apparatus, “still quite alien to us”, as “a bourgeois and tsarist hotchpotch”, and predicts that a “mere scrap of paper” will prove “unable to defend the non-Russians from the onslaught of that really Russian man, the Great Russian chauvinist, in substance a rascal and a tyrant, as the typical Russian bureaucrat is”.

That description seems to fit Vladimir Putin. It may not have been pointedly directed at Josef Stalin (who wasn’t a Russian, although Lenin was well aware of how ‘Russified’ individuals from ethnic minorities doubled down on chauvinism, just as religious converts can tend towards fanaticism). But by then, Lenin had caught glimpses of the degree to which Stalin was accruing power in his capacity as party general secretary, and was keen to remove him from that position.

He, and nobody else, had any inkling of what lay in store in the 1930s — massive industrialisation, forced collectivisation and also mass extermination, which included most of Lenin’s (and at some point Stalin’s) closest comrades. The character defects Lenin had identified in Stalin turned out to be far more destructive than he could have imagined.

Fuelled by the 1917 revolution, the Soviet example proved to be transformative through much of the 20th century, not least for liberation movements in various parts of the world. The theory behind it might have been far more attractive than most of its practices, but the aftermath of its collapse in 1991 — after a short-lived window of possible redemption under Mikhail Gorbachev was smashed, as Marx and Engels might have predicted, by the dominant ideology of the day — showed that for the majority of Soviet citizens, the aftermath was worse in all too many ways.

Would a collective post-Lenin leadership have made much of a difference? Almost certainly, although it might have led to other failures. Rather than denigrate the audacious and globally transformative Soviet experiment as a preordained travesty and inevitable disaster, it is worth examining its many failings as lessons that will feed into 21st-century efforts to transcend neoliberalism.

Would a less destructive USSR have served as a superior exemplar for the rest of the world? Possibly, even probably. But that’s the stuff dreams are made of.

mahir.dawn@gmail.com
Published in Dawn, December 28th, 2022
Afghanistan or ‘Isolation-istan’?

Rafia Zakaria
Published December 28, 2022 


IN July of this year, while the world was busy with so many other things, a group of Afghan children were in the fields near the village of Bolak Wandi in Helmand province, looking after some grazing sheep. Curiosity got the better of them when one of the children saw a metal object that was half buried in the ground. Excitedly, the children crowded around the object, thinking that they had found scrap material which could be sold off, and soon began to argue amongst themselves as to had spotted the item first.

And then came the explosion: the object was, in fact, a mortar shell that had been left behind, most likely by the invading Americans. This, unfortunately, is not uncommon in Afghanistan, where conflict of several decades has left behind such death traps in almost all the provinces. In this case, one child died instantly, another three died at the hospital.

As it turns out, an NGO that was doing the work of removing land mines and mortar shells had fired its staff not long after the Taliban took over in August 2021. The leftover armament may well be a metaphor for the ethical ease with which the world at large looked away from the failed effort to do away with the Taliban. The Taliban, on the other hand, have lived up to their reputation. Their latest obscurantist edict has been to ban women from studying in universities and working in local and international NGOs. The move has generated dismay in most of the world — surprising, since Afghanistan, over the months, has been all but forgotten by the powers that promised to liberate its women. Afghan women have also expressed their extreme dismay, forced as they are to continue to live in a country ruled by elements whose entire mission is to be visibly contrarian to what goes on in the rest of the world. Women’s education at university appears to have whetted their misogynistic ire.

Much like the Afghan children who die when mortar shells or land mines explode under their feet, Afghan women face oblivion — though of a different kind. They will be entirely alone in dealing with this new form of exclusion. In a few days, the hemming and hawing and chest-beating will end once the existence of the Taliban’s decades-long misogyny has been lamented as a matter of form. The women, however, will face the darkness of both exclusion and isolation. No possibility of furthering educational goals, no chance to discuss ideas, no intellectual growth.

The diplomatic cutting off of Afghanistan extends to its citizens, who are already facing many deprivations under the Taliban rulers.

I point this out because it is important to place this latest edict meant to crush the future of Afghan women in a context that is, unfortunately, ignored by Western journalists and news agencies. The Taliban are isolating and excluding Afghan women, and must be challenged. But the world must also be taken to task for having isolated and excluded Afghanistan since the very day the Americans decided they were no longer interested in sorting things out in that blighted land.

Recently, the NGOs Save the Children and Médecins Sans Frontières complained that they were afraid that their inability to reach Afghan children would lead to many deaths. This is undoubtedly true; but it is also true that the world has nodded its approval for the continued freezing of billions of dollars of Afghan currency reserves by the United States. The reason, of course, is that the Taliban government would receive the money when it should not be given anything at all. It is the same reason that is offered up for the diplomatic isolation of the country. One understands this logic, but it is also true that to prevent more deaths of Afghan children, the funds need to be unfrozen. The US had announced earlier that it would be willing to release about $3.5bn of the amount to help the children, but would ensure that the amount would bypass the Taliban. But now, with international NGOs ready to leave, there will be no chance of getting to the world’s most vulnerable little ones.

There is another reason why the continued freeze on Afghan funds is counterproductive. When forces like the Taliban have nothing to lose, then why should they bother aligning themselves with any values of the liberal world order? Instead, they feel empowered to do whatever they please and crush the dreams of women and let children die, rather than making the services of international NGOs available to them. What the current boycott accomplishes is to permit the former occupiers of the country to claim that they are being tough on the Taliban even as they abandon Afghan interests — and the people — entirely.

The diplomatic isolation of Afghanistan extends to its citizens, who are already facing the many deprivations of life under the Taliban. Holding an Afghan passport means having the worst passport in the world — one that permits visa-free travel to nowhere. The Afghan Taliban, rotten to the core, have banned Afghan women from universities and Afghan girls from high schools — but the world collectively has banned Afghans from nearly everywhere. This last point is important because university education itself can and should mean admission to a wider interconnected world, the ability to travel to other institutions, to academic conferences, and to take advantage of global knowledge exchange.

The Western world at large and the US in particular owe more to the Afghan people. It is impossible to convince the Taliban of anything, inured as they are to reason or compassion. One would hope that the rest of the world can be more moved by the plight of Afghan women and children and realise that the way things are is not the way things should be.

The writer is an attorney teaching constitutional law and political philosophy.

rafia.zakaria@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, December 28th, 2022
PAKISTAN
‘Climate justice knows no boundaries’: FM Bilawal hails COP27 loss and damage fund

Dawn.com
Published December 28, 2022

Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has hailed the securement of the “loss and damage fund” at last month’s COP27 climate summit as a “significant achievement”.


He said this in an exclusive interview with Arab News published on Wednesday in which he talked about his recent seven-day visit to the United States.

FM Bilawal was in New York earlier this month to host a ministerial conference of the G-77 and China bloc — the largest negotiating bloc of developing countries within the United Nation network. It was also Pakistan’s last conference as the chair of the group as the leadership was transferred to Cuba for the upcoming year.

Talking to Arab News, he asserted that he was “proud of the fact that it was under Pakistan’s chairmanship of the G77” that this aim for the climate fund — which he said was something that climate activists had been struggling with for the past 30 years — had been achieved.

“I think we were very successful in creating that consensus.”


He said that “time and time again, the G77 has come together to take unanimous decisions. Every meeting that we chaired here has had an outcome document.”

FM Bilawal commended the unity among the G77 members, saying, “I don’t think it would have been possible to insist on loss and damage being part of the agenda or ultimately agreeing to get [it] … without consensus and unity across the board at G77.”

“In the past year, we managed to sustain that consensus and it’s incredibly encouraging,” the foreign minister commented.

Reflecting on Pakistan’s leadership position as the chair of the G77 for the past year, Bilawal said: “To say at the end of our one-year term that we managed to fundamentally alter the dynamics between the developing world, the global south and the global north, would not be correct.

 There is a lot of work to be done.

“But I do believe we’ve managed to highlight some of these discrepancies, some of these predictions and particularly within the context of COP27, the success of G77 to get loss and damage onto its agenda goes a long way to address this discrepancy.”

Aiming to bridge the conversational gap between the developed and developing nations, the foreign minister opined, “I feel that we’ve managed to achieve some common ground through the language incorporated in loss and damage.”

The foreign minister said that the loss and damage framework needed to be seen as “not just the developed world needing to give compensation or reparations to the developing world but as a more practical [and] realistic approach, that we have to work together”.

‘Success is always the result of compromise’

Calling for the global south and the global north and the developing world and the developed world to work together, FM Bilawal said: “Success is always the result of compromise.”

He remarked that climate justice and catastrophe knew “no boundaries, do not care whether you’re rich or poor, whether you contributed to climate change much or you didn’t”.

The foreign minister highlighted how climate change was impacting not just the developing countries but even the developed ones.

“It (climate change) is devastating lives in Pakistan. It is devastating lives here in the US, where recently you had Hurricane Ian. In China, the heat wave. Drought and forest fires in South Africa. In Europe, floods.

“Wherever we look, we see climate catastrophes catching up to us and we have to work together to address this issue,” he asserted.

The foreign minister said there were “different perspectives” on climate change with the developing world feeling that its carbon footprint was smaller and that it has not contributed to the climate crisis as much as the developed world has.

“They (developing nations) haven’t benefited in the same way the developed world has from industrialisation. And therefore, we have to find the middle ground between the two to address this issue,” he added.

‘Art of diplomacy in mutual ground’


“The art of diplomacy, of politics, is being able to find mutual ground. I am a strong believer [of that],” FM Bilawal said.

“I think the politics domestically in my country and internationally tend to be politics of division. I tend to believe that there’s far more that unites us than divides us.

“And we should seek common ground — areas in which we can work together — rather than find areas where we disagree,” the foreign minister said.

Regarding the country’s progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) — part of the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development — Bilawal said, “I believe as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and a whole host of other factors, including the Ukraine war, we have not been able to make the necessary progress on SDGs.”

“If we do want to achieve that goal, then it requires quite an ambitious reform agenda that would endorse many of the suggestions of Antonio Guterres, the UN secretary-general, who also calls for reforms of international financial institutions in order for us to be able to deliver on SDGs,” he explained.
Monuments of maladaptation

Pakistan needs to treat climate change and development as two sides of the same coin.

Ali Tauqeer Sheikh
Published December 29, 2022

CAN we plan to reduce the cost of climate change to our people and economy? The loss and damage caused by the floods this summer have shaken the foundation of our economic planning. We have learnt that the monsoon has changed its pattern: it has become more unpredictable in terms of rainfall timing, location, and quantity.

In 2022, we learnt that non-Indus floods can be more destructive than riverine floods. The year 2023 provides us an opportunity to rewrite our flood manuals and policy documents to redefine the basis of our development planning. In 2022, we learnt about three climate threats that can recur at any time, but not in the same order.

First, the threshold of unusually high rainfall has changed. The previous averages are not reliable planning tools for flood preparedness.

Second, the era of compound extreme weather events has begun, where two or more climate disasters can coincide or spur on each other.

Third, except for cash disbursement through the Benazir Income Support Programme and despite some heroic efforts, Pakistan’s disaster preparedness model has failed, primarily because it does not have its feet on the ground at the district or sub-district levels.

It has also failed to provide community-based early warning systems, land-use planning and land-use change, human settlement mapping, climate-smart construction standards, designs and materials for both public and private sector infrastructure, storm-water management — and equally worse, post-disaster rehabilitation, resettlement and humanitarian assistance.

A climate-resilient infrastructure would have saved us most of the $19,191 million lost on account of housing, agriculture and livestock, and an additional $9,599m on account of public sector infrastructure. The war chest was unable to respond to the crisis without skimming from ongoing development projects, making the country even more vulnerable.

The year 2022 was a watershed in the history of climate change in Pakistan. The compound impact of heatwaves and glacial outbursts washed away infrastructure, making Gilgit-Baltistan a new flooding hotspot in the country. Instead of following their traditional route, rainclouds visited upper Sindh directly from Indian Gujrat and Rajasthan.

We learnt that non-riverine floods could result in the worst deluge in living memory over a vast stretch of Sindh.

We found that the rains that had started in the coastal regions, causing urban flooding in Karachi, could be sucked inland by drought-hit regions.

Not only was havoc wreaked on communities, robbing the province of its infrastructure, but the floodwaters crossed Koh-i Suleman into southern Punjab and the Kirthar range to destroy crops, housing and infrastructure.

We found that a cloudburst upstream of Nowshera in KP could cause riverine floods while the Mangla and Tarbela dams were not filled and most of Punjab had not recorded heavy rains or floods along the Indus. All this while, Pakistan was planning an investment of more than Rs800 billion under the National Flood Protection Plan-IV that was conceived after the 2010 riverine floods.

Pakistan needs to treat climate change and development as two sides of the same coin.

Some climate experts and policymakers want us to believe that since Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries, nothing can be done and we are doomed to live in a permanent state of insecurity, visited by frequent disasters.

Instead of pinning hopes on international finance or new borrowing, or hiding behind limited fiscal space, Pakistan needs to treat climate change and development as two sides of the same coin. All development projects and investments can promote adaptation by challenging some old practices.

In general, democracies enable us to empower communities for disaster-risk planning and climate resilience. In Pakistan, despite the transition to democracy, policymaking has continued to be centralised and top-down. All decisions are made at the federal or provincial levels.

Local governments are still not trusted or mandated to undertake community-led development or their adaptation plans. Their functions have been taken over by members of the provincial and national assemblies, whereby the governments approve the projects of their favourite members.

Most of these schemes reflect elite capture and aren’t connected to each other or to national/provincial priorities. They are rarely a part of any local or zonal development planning, but often reflect non-transparent and wasteful transactions at all stages of project approval, procurement and till the completion certificate.

These are often left incomplete for years after a change of government. This sad practice was initiated by Gen Ziaul Haq, who used this magic wand to control members of parliament elected on a non-party basis.

All successive PPP, PML-N and PTI governments have continued to buy loyalties with these ‘development’ schemes. This model of investments in local infrastructure is totally random and counterproductive. Far from contributing to adaptation, they have added to climate maladaptation in both rural and urban Pakistan.

The top-down policy planning cannot deliver climate resilience at the community level. Successive political governments since the early 1990s have failed to democratise policy planning and resource allocations.

Investments in maladaptive infrastructure locks our future to climate risks and disasters. No number of cash disbursements, international lending or financing can substitute revising PC-1s and other policy planning documents, manuals and procurement and construction standards.

Finally, far from leading on mega projects, the Planning Commission has reduced its role to managing local-level schemes and projects. No wonder, it has a throw-forward of at least 1,260 unfinished public-sector development projects with an estimated price tag of Rs6.2 trillion.

The result? Rather than build resilience, it has littered the country with monuments of maladaptation, adding to unsustainable, unsafe housing and other infrastructure. As apparent in the floods, many public sector projects have become hazardous.

Since there are no guiding documents available to the Planning Commission to climate-proof its portfolio, a moratorium on public sector development programmes is in order to undertake two actions: i) adopt tools to measure the level of adaptation and mitigation benefits of each public sector project, irrespective of its size or sector, and ii) undertake climate audits of all pending 1,260 projects valued at Rs6.2tr to ensure they contribute to climate adaptation and mitigation and not to climate loss and damage.

In 2022, Pakistan was the poster child of climate change impact. Putting our house in order can make us a global climate champion.

The writer is an expert on climate change and development.

Published in Dawn, December 29th, 2022
TTP’s mentors
Published December 29, 2022 

WITH the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan back in the killing business with renewed ferocity, it is time we took a look at its ideological moorings. 

In a nutshell, like the communist parties of yore, the TTP’s aim is the destruction of the existing order (run by infidels, as defined by it) — an idea instilled into the TTP brains by mentors opposed to the very concept of a nation state.

Osama bin Laden never headed the TTP formally. He couldn’t, because the name Pakistan was there. But the Al Qaeda chief and the man who succeeded him, Ayman al-Zawahiri, had a lasting impression on TTP philosophy.

Both were indifferent to the interests of non-Arab states, regarded such Muslim countries as Iran and Turkey their enemies, and never cared about Central Asian states, except as a recruitment ground.

While opposition to the nation state idea doesn’t necessarily zoom in on Pakistan, the tragedy was that both OBL and al-Zawahiri had little love for Pakistan even though this country was their operational base. This selfishness betrayed a harsh reality: their political philosophy evolved in statelessness.

OBL was a pariah in Saudi Arabia, and al-Zawahiri an Egyptian fugitive who faced execution in his country. Both chose to work in Pakistan because of the respect they enjoyed from the people simply because they were Arab. Their base was the Af-Pak region, and they didn’t know and didn’t care to know what and where the Durand Line was.

They moved freely on both sides and found the 2,400-kilometre long mountainous sanctuary and the tribal people’s hospitality ideal for pursuing their international ‘Islamic’ agenda, though this ‘Islamic’ fervour had an Arab bias. More regretfully, al-Zawahiri had an anti-Pakistan tilt from the very beginning, and OBL did nothing to discourage it.

OBL and al-Zawahiri had a lasting impression on TTP philosophy.

OBL’s own speeches on Pakistani soil reflected a worldview that didn’t take into consideration Pakistan’s concerns. In many speeches, he spoke passionately about Palestine and talked also about Chechnya and the Rohingya, but hardly made any reference to Kashmir. I would be happy if some reader were to correct me.

Al-Zawahiri, on the contrary, actively pursued his anti-Pakistan agenda. His specialty was organising anti-government coups, working on potential collaborators in the armed forces of Egypt and other Arab countries, and having several nationalities. On one of his fake passports, he even visited the US on a fund-raising campaign.

In Pakistan, his most criminal act was the bombing of the Egyptian embassy in 1995, even though Osama didn’t believe Al Qaeda should annoy Pakistan.

Al-Zawahiri was also involved in the Lal Masjid uprising in Islamabad, and was in contact with Abdul Rashid and Abdul Aziz, the men who had turned the mosque into an arsenal and brainwashed and trained ‘commandos’ who often raided Islamabad’s shops and confiscated ‘obscene’ magazines.

It is also alleged al-Zawahiri had a role in Benazir Bhutto’s assassination. He became Al Qaeda chief after Osama bin Laden was killed in an American raid.

In his monumental book, Descent into Chaos, Ahmed Rashid gives a chilling account of Afghan Taliban’s inroads into Pakistan when Hamid Karzai was the ruler, and says things which Pakistan must know could be replicated if the now defunct Fata were to be handed over to the TTP.

Afghan Taliban and fighters from other Muslim countries, writes Rashid, “worked in Pakistan’s Fata region, helping train a new generation of Tali­ban and Pakistani extremists in the arts of bomb-making and fund-raising. […] In 2007 many of these militants were to fight alongside the Pakistani Taliban as they ext­ended their writ across the North-West Frontier Province”.

With Al Qaeda’s help, the Taliban established a “lethal cottage industry”, manufacturing imp­rovised explosive devices in tribal hou­seholds. Soon, says Rashid, “the Taliban would be using the same IEDs against Pakistani forces”.

More gruesome, by 2006, they had executed 120 tribal leaders who had disagreed with them; by 2008 more than 4,000 Uzbek fighters were active in what then was Fata and were pushing for the Talibanisation of the entire NWFP.

The renewal of TTP activity is marked by brutality, as seen by the recent beheading of two people for their purported spying for the security forces. Clearly, the most unfortunate phenomenon at present is the mysterious if not duplicitous behaviour of the Kabul regime.

Ignoring the recent exchange of artillery fire across the border, the Kabul regime has not come clean on its policy towards terrorist groups operating from its soil. In fact, it is obvious that the TTP’s logistics base in the former Fata cannot sustain its current level of militancy and that it has no choice but to have safe havens in Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s greatest asset is the tribal people’s abhorrence of TTP killers. Islamabad thus has to build on the people’s sentiments rather than expect meaningful cooperation from the ungrateful Kabul regime.

The writer is Dawn’s External Ombudsman and an author.

Published in Dawn, December 29th, 2022

‘Made-in-Pakistan Jihad’ 

and the TTP


The TTP threatens the Pakistani state

A Letter from Prometheus

What happened in Bannu CTD Centre has reaffirmed the skills and firepower of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) that kept engaging Pakistani security forces for over 48 hours fighting inside the building. This incident reminds us of what happened in GHQ Rawalpindi on 10–11 October 2009. Operation Janbaz cleared the building but left a sense that nothing is secure in Pakistan. Since then the Pakistan Army had been trying to establish a sense of security among citizens and the TTP has been engaging Pakistan in an unending fight that is still going on.

Operation Zarb e Azb and Operation Raddul Fasad tried to defeat terrorism but it has never been defeated and the multi-headed serpent of terrorism is still alive. I fear that it will remain alive till Pakistan will keep engaging itself in Afghan issues and keep feeding Afghans.

I served in Afghanistan as a journalist during 1995-97 and then covered the so-called War On Terror from 2001 to  2006. This field assignment helped me to understand the currents and undercurrents of the Afghan war and the Afghan mindset. I believe the TTP could not be formed and could not be in the swing if it did not have support from the Afghan Taliban but the majority of writers had been claiming and blaming TTP as just an Indian product. Yes, it got financial as well as technical support from Indian intelligence agencies but its survival within Afghanistan was within the active support and cordial relations with the Afghan Taliban. TTP foot soldiers had been helping the Afghan Taliban to defeat the Afghan Army in the past.

The Afghan problem is exceptionally complex; having multiple dimensions since 1979 and having been compromising the security of Pakistan. Some people claim the Afghan war is a big business for many in Pakistan and they cite allegations of selling Stinger missiles and the Ojhri Camp blast of April 1988,the  known involvement of powerful groups in the drug and weapon business, the benefits of the Afghan Transit Trade and the Commissionerate of Afghan Refugees for those who had always been in power in Pakistan. These above-mentioned factors since 1979 are diamond mines for those who understand why Afghanistan is important for Pakistan.

The killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul in a US strike was enough to learn that the Afghan Taliban are still supporting terrorist outfits directly or indirectly or they are so weak that they cannot stop or purge terrorists using Afghan soil. We know the TTP leadership, including Mullah Fazlullah, had been living in Kunar province of Afghanistan with the perceivable support of the Afghan Taliban even before they captured Kabul. Everybody knows that Mullah Fazlullah was one of the biggest enemies of the Pakistan Army in the region but he had been living a comfortable life in the Kunar province and had been using Afghanistan as a launching pad for attacking Pakistan. There is no doubt and circumstantial evidence that the Indian intelligence agency RAW invested in forming TTP that had safe havens under Afghan Taliban-controlled areas. This situation could be considered as a linkage between the Afghan Taliban and the Indian network, but it had never come under discussion in Pakistan.

In one of my articles, “A year after the fall of Kabul” published in this newspaper on August 7, I categorically mentioned that the TTP problem had not been solved and negotiations with TTP would ultimately enhance the confidence of terrorists who were virtually destroyed by the Pakistan Army when Ashraf Ghani was in power in Kabul. Afghan Taliban are cutting the iron fence Pakistan installed during Ashraf Ghani’s tenure at the Pak-Afghan border and which was intact till the Afghan Taliban did not come into power. I believe soon we will find parts of this iron fence in some iron melting plants in Pakistan.

Do we remember that today’s Afghan Taliban are the second and third generations of the “Mujahedeen” who were crafted to destroy the regular army of Soviet Afghanistan? Mujahedeen smashed the Afghan government under “Operation Cyclone” and their second and third generations won the war against US-led 55-plus countries.

All stakeholders, particularly those who had been crying and protesting that “TTP is back” should be taken into confidence by the state and the political leadership must debate in the Parliament who started negotiations with TTP and on what conditions this new phase of dialogue was initiated.

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The USA launched the Afghan Jihad in the late 1970s against the former USSR.  This Jihad, having the code name of “Operation Cyclone”, was directly or indirectly manned by the military establishment of Pakistan. Pakistan effectively worked along with the CIA in changing the region as well as changing the mindset of the moderate Afghan and Pakistani societies. Whatever we are facing today is the bitter fruit of this tree we planted in the 1970s. TTP is nothing but a form of the Mujahedeen of the 1970s and the Afghan Taliban of the 1990s, having the same philosophy and quest of destroying an established state and its army; the only difference is that the target is Pakistan and the Pakistan Army instead of Afghanistan and its former Soviet state.

We were told by the state institutions that the Red Army of the former USSR ran away from Afghanistan by leaving a huge cache of arms worth billions of dollars behind the Amu Darya. However, things were otherwise. Background talks with former military men of the former USSR suggest that the decaying Communist era decided in principle to leave almost all weapons within Afghanistan and ordered its soldiers just to carry one gun and vehicles to take them out from the land of blood and destruction— Afghanistan.

Therefore, the Red Army by design left thousands of T-52 tanks, Mi-22 light helicopters, BM-21 Grad (moveable rocket launching pads), assault rifles like the AK-47, and millions of live bullets and RPGs behind in Afghanistan. Some former Soviet military officers claim that the decision was taken in the Politburo to leave weapons in Afghanistan so Afghans would have toys (weapons) to play with for the next three to four decades and keep destroying not only their own country, but Pakistan also,  which had  played a pivotal role in defeating the Red Army.

Former generals of the Red Soviet Army claim that the Soviet Union had a firm belief that radical extremists equipped with Soviet-made AK-47s would change the social fabric of Pakistan right after the departure of the Red Army because Afghans would start selling their weapons to private hands in Pakistan. However, the Soviet Army thought that the Pakistan Army could buy rocket launchers, BM-21 Grad, MI22, and tanks from Afghan Mujahideen, but this never happened and Pakistan Army never thought about this.

What has happened, has happened and we must move forward because there is no reverse gear in history. What we can do to safeguard our interests is the most important concern for people like me who have been covering Afghan issues for half of their lives.

I believe that all stakeholders, particularly those who had been crying and protesting that “TTP is back” should be taken into confidence by the state and the political leadership must debate in the Parliament who started negotiations with TTP and on what conditions this new phase of dialogue was initiated.

The state has never taken the public into confidence over the Afghan issue in the last 43 years but I believe we must do it now.


Risking death at sea, Rohingya Muslims seek safety in Indonesia

Reuters Published December 29, 2022 

Fatimah Bin Ismail, a 19-year-old Rohingya refugee, eats at her temporary shelter in Pidie, Aceh province, Indonesia on Dec 28. — Reuters

Crying with relief after a traumatic 40-day voyage to Indonesia in a leaky boat, Rohingya Muslim Fatimah bin Ismail held a mobile phone with shaky hands as she made a video call to relatives.

The 19-year-old was among 174 surviving Rohingya people in the overloaded wooden fishing boat when it washed up on the shores of Indonesia’s Aceh province this week.

Around 200 had been on board — fleeing poverty and persecution — when it set off across the Indian Ocean from Bangladesh on Nov 21.

Of the 20 or more who died along the way, some leapt into the water in desperation after the boat broke down and started to drift, fearing it would sink.


That boat had been reported in waters close to Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and India in the Andaman Sea and the Malacca Strait, one of the world’s busiest shipping routes.

“Three men jumped because they couldn’t handle the hunger. Then after 12 days, water started coming into the boat,” Fatimah told Reuters.

“There were bodies floating in the water, here and there. We couldn’t do anything,” she added.

The Rohingya are a Muslim community from mainly Buddhist Myanmar, where they have long suffered repression.

Since a crackdown by Myanmar’s military in 2017, around 800,000 have been forced into Bangladesh, United Nations authorities estimate, but thousands have fled increasingly desperate conditions in refugee camps there.

Many try to get to Muslim-majority Indonesia — where the UN refugee agency says nearly 500 Rohingya have reached land in the past six weeks — or to Malaysia.

Indonesian authorities have been providing them with medical assistance, food and temporary shelter while working with global refugee agencies to ascertain their legal status.

Rohingya refugees receive medical treatment at a temporary shelter in Pidie, Aceh province, Indonesia on Dec 26.
— Antara Foto/Joni Saputra/via Reuters

Fatimah now hopes to join her relatives in Malaysia but she doesn’t know how or when.

“I just want to live comfortably,” she said. “I hope I can live well and be safe here.”

Francesca Albanese: Anti-semitism claims are a campaign to smear my work

 Interview. We spoke with Francesca Albanese, jurist and UN rapporteur for human rights in the occupied Palestinian territories, who was accused of anti-semitism for a phrase in a 2014 social media post.


JERUSALEM
Published on December 28, 2022

Earlier this month, the lawyer Francesca Albanese, Rapporteur to the United Nations for Human Rights in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, has been at the center of a media storm and is being accused of anti-Semitism. An Israeli newspaper, Times of Israel, went sifting through her social media posts back to 2014 and found in one of them a sentence explicitly referring to “Jewish lobbies” said to be exerting pressure on U.S. policy to cover up for Israel. We interviewed Francesca Albanese.

Ms. Albanese, what do you say to the charge of anti-Semitism concerning that post?

I have used the expression “Jewish lobby,” that is true – I want to say that this was out of ignorance, not out of ill intent. One need only read that phrase in context, part of the heartfelt appeal I made in 2014 to the archbishop of my diocese to solicit a donation for UNRWA (the UN agency), for which I worked. All this was in the context of a violent (Israeli) military offensive on Gaza that resulted in the death of more than 2,000 Palestinians including 550 children in 2014. Against this backdrop, I criticized the fact that, in the face of condemnations from so many countries, UN member states, Europe and the United States did not have a strong and clear position, or, most importantly, one that would lead to concrete action. And I criticized the influence of the “Jewish lobby” in the U.S. In retrospect, I should have never used the term “Jewish lobby,” because it encompasses the whole Jewish people. And that is not what I meant to say. The correct statement would have been “the pro-Israel pressure groups” that also consist of non-Jews. The mistake was to lump together so many people who have nothing to do with this and who should not be connected to Israeli state policies. I have made amends and distanced myself from what I said back then, but now it has become the casus belli to launch a campaign against me and smear me with anti-Semitism, which is as far from the truth as it gets.

You weren’t attacked only by the Times of Israel.

The last few days have been intense, but I have been surprised by the outcry in my defense from so many Jewish organizations in the United States and Europe. Today I got a heartfelt letter written by an Israeli professor from Oxford, Avi Shlaim, in which he says that I am holding high the values of peace, justice and truth that are at the core of the Jewish tradition. There has been a campaign against me led by the usual groups, because I had been accused of anti-Semitism since before those posts were found. A lot of instrumentalization and a lot of manipulation, which, however, did not go well on this occasion, because there was a response of condemnation of the accusations against me. Some people said, yes, (Albanese) used the wrong words, but let’s talk about it. Anti-Semitism is a very serious issue, but we have to distinguish the issue of anti-Semitism from the issue of criticizing Israel’s policies towards Palestinians under occupation for 55 years.

The criticisms which, as you say, you have been subjected to for a long time, are aimed, in your view, at targeting your work as Human Rights Rapporteur in the Israeli-occupied Palestinian Territories.

I think it’s that for the most part: the intent to demonize my person and my mandate so as to invalidate the investigations that I’m carrying out. And I would like to say that this is not just about Palestinian rights. I am stressing that dismantling the colonial set-up that Israel has put in place in the Palestinian territory it has occupied for 55 years is something that will promote security and better living conditions for both Palestinians and Israelis. Both peoples will benefit from dismantling this system.

You are also being accused of highlighting the Nakba, the Palestinian national catastrophe in 1948, and putting it on the same level as the Holocaust.

I have never made an equivalence between the Holocaust and the Nakba. Every time I have found myself writing or commenting on these two historical tragedies, I have always noted the heinousness, the gravity, the horror that was the Holocaust, which came at the culmination of centuries of racism, discrimination and persecution of Jews. I have never belittled or reduced the tragedy of the Holocaust to an equivalence. What I have done is to emphasize the knot that connects the two tragedies and the need to recognize that the Nakba is a historical fact. It is not a narrative, or an opinion, it is something that happened, it is a fundamental moment that marked the life of a people, transforming it forever. To disregard that is something extremely serious, historically, morally and legally.

Coming to your position as UN Rapporteur, what needs to be done so that the Palestinian people can also enjoy freedom and full independence?

There are three basic things. The first is that the same rights be recognized to the Palestinians that are recognized to other peoples in the region. I wonder why a right like the right to self-determination is still being debated as if it’s a matter of political expediency. It is a fundamental right; it is an inescapable norm of international law. There are rights that should not be implemented as a free concession but as an inescapable norm. The second is the application of international law, because one can get out of this impasse by applying it. The occupation is illegal, so it must be dismantled, the (Israeli) colonies constitute a war crime, so they must be dismantled. If the occupation and the colonies are not dismantled, international law provides for diplomatic, economic and political measures so that the state of Israel is encouraged to comply with international legality. Such as, for example, suspending military aid and stopping the marketing of products made in the colonies. The third and final point is an insistence on negotiations to achieve peace, which is a completely separate issue from the principle of Two States (Israel and Palestine). Two States is a fundamental issue on which the long-standing international consensus is based, which says that the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination will be exercised in the form of an independent state within the pre-1967 borders [when Israel occupied the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem]. This is a fact to take into account for the implementation of a plan, and not because it would be the opening offer for a negotiation.

After huge storm, Mississippi capital hit by another water crisis

Wed, December 28, 2022 


Tens of thousands of residents in Jackson, the capital of the southern US state of Mississippi, were stuck without running water Wednesday, after frozen pipes burst following a monster winter storm that hit most of the country over the holidays.

It was the third major water crisis in less than two years to befall this city of some 150,000 people, most of whom are African American, prompting political debate over racial disparity in access to vital infrastructure.

Leaks in burst pipes have caused pressure to drop in the city's water system, paralyzing supply in most neighborhoods, local officials said, adding that workers are struggling to locate many of the leaks

A state of emergency has been declared and residents have been urged to consume only boiled water to avoid getting sick.

"We are dealing with the worst-case scenario," Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba said during a press conference Tuesday.

"Staff continues to search for large leaks and breaks, but not all could be found to this point," he added. "We are dealing with an old and crumbling system that continues to offer challenge after challenge."

Jackson spent nearly a month without water after a cold spell in early 2021. And this summer, major flooding caused the city's water treatment plant to shut down, leaving residents without access to safe drinking water for some two months.

In November, the Justice Department appointed an administrator to oversee the water system. Earlier this month, Congress allocated $600 million in federal funds to renovate Jackson's infrastructure.

In the meantime, several drinking water distribution sites were opened in the city this week as frustration has grown among local residents.

"I appreciate the help of the city giving us water, but it can only last so long," Michael Broom, 34, told local newspaper The Clarion-Ledger.

Similar problems have been reported in other parts of the southern United States, where infrastructure has not been designed to cope with the extreme temperatures experienced over the Christmas holidays.

The situation was slowly returning to normal on Wednesday in Shreveport, Louisiana and Florence, South Carolina, but some residents of Asheville, North Carolina remained without drinking water.

chp/dax/md/sst

Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe collapse to a post-Soviet low

But sea-borne LNGs sales are up, thanks mostly to Novatek's Yamal LNG plant in the Arctic.

1
Model of natural gas pipeline and Gazprom logo.(Dado Ruvic / Illustration / Reuters File Photo)

MOSCOW — Russian gas exports to Europe via pipelines plummeted to a post-Soviet low in 2022 as its largest customer cut imports due to the conflict in Ukraine and a major pipeline was damaged by mysterious blasts, Gazprom data and Reuters calculations showed.

The European Union, traditionally Russia’s largest consumer for oil and gas, has for years spoken about cutting its reliance on Russian energy, but Brussels got serious after the Kremlin sent troops into Ukraine in February.

State-controlled Gazprom, citing Chief Executive Officer Alexei Miller, a long-standing ally of President Vladimir Putin, said its exports outside of the ex-Soviet Union will reach 100.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) this year.

That is a fall of more than 45 eprcent from 185.1 bcm in 2021 and includes supplies to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline, through which Gazprom supplied 10.39 bcm last year.

Russian direct gas exports to Germany, Europe’s largest economy, were halted in September following blasts at the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea.

Sweden and Denmark have both concluded that four leaks on Nord Stream 1 and 2 were caused by explosions, but have not said who might be responsible. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has called the damage an act of sabotage.

Russia accused British navy personnel of being behind the blasts, a claim that London said was false.

Russian gas exports via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline totalled record-high 59.2 bcm last year.

The 100.9 bcm of Russian gas pipeline supplies, which Gazprom defines as exports to “far abroad”, or outside the former-Soviet Union, is one of the lowest since the collapse of the Soviet state in 1991.

One of Gazprom’s previous post-Soviet lows of gas sales to “far abroad” was at 117.4 bcm in 1995, according to Gazprom Export.

Russia, meanwhile has been increasing its sea-borne liquefied natural gas sales, thanks mostly to Novatek-led Yamal LNG plant in the Arctic.

According to the Rosstat government body, Russia’s LNG production rose by almost 10 percent in January – November to 29.7 million tonnes.

And Russia has managed to offset lower gas imports to Europe by higher energy prices at its budget revenues from oil and gas jumped by over a third in the first 10 months of the year.

Gazprom also said that its 2022 gas output is seen at 412.6 bcm, which is down from 514.8 bcm in 2021, when it reached a 13-year high.


Nord Stream 2 pipeline firm gets 6-month

stay of bankruptcy

Pipes at the landfall facilities of the ‘Nord Stream 2’ gas pipline are pictured in Lubmin, northern Germany, on Feb. 15, 2022. A Swiss court has granted a further six-month ‘stay of bankruptcy’ to the operating company never-opened 

By Associated Press - Wednesday, December 28, 2022

BERLIN — A Swiss court has granted a six-month “stay of bankruptcy” to the operating company for the never-opened Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which was built to bring Russian gas to Germany but put on ice shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

The company’s stay was extended from Jan. 10 through July 10 by a regional court in the Swiss canton (state) of Zug, according to a notice published Wednesday in the Swiss Official Gazette of Commerce.

Nord Stream 2 AG, a subsidiary of Russia’s Gazprom, is based in Zug. Nord Stream 2’s court-appointed administrator, Transliq AG, sought the extension.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government halted the certification process for the pipeline on Feb. 22, after Russia recognized the independence of two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered sent troops into Ukraine two days later, and U.S. President Joe Biden President then directed his administration to impose sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 operating company.

The pipeline project had long drawn resistance from Ukraine and eastern European countries, as well as bipartisan opposition in the United States.
Karabakh Suspends Mining Operations Amid Azeri Blockade

Nagorno-Karabakh - 
Officials inaugurate an ore processing plant built near the Kashen copper deposit, 26Dec2015.

Nagorno-Karabakh’s leadership announced on Wednesday that mining operations at a local copper and molybdenum deposit will be suspended due to Azerbaijan’s blockade of the sole road connecting Karabakh to Armenia.

A section of the vital road was blocked on December 12 by a large group of Azerbaijanis protesting against “illegal” mining in Karabakh. They are demanding that Baku be allowed to inspect ore mines in the Armenian-populated territory and assess their environmental impact. The Azerbaijani government has backed their demands.

The authorities in Yerevan and Stepanakert have condemned the blockade as a gross violation of the 2020 ceasefire agreement that placed the Lachin corridor under the control of Russian peacekeepers.

The blockade, which has led to serious shortages of food, medicines and other basic goods in Karabakh, is continuing despite international pressure exerted on Baku.

In a statement, the Karabakh government insisted that the territory’s sole functioning ore mine run by a private company, Base Metals, has operated in accordance with “the highest international standards.” Nevertheless, it said, it has decided to request an “international ecological examination” of the Kashen deposit to disprove Azerbaijani claims to the contrary.

“Together with the management of the company, a decision was made to temporarily stop the operation of the company's mine until the examination is completed,” added the statement.

The announcement followed reports that Major-General Andrei Volkov, the commander of Russian peacekeeping forces deployed in Karabakh, held fresh talks with Karabakh Armenian leaders.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian reportedly discussed the blockade in Saint-Petersburg on Monday when they spoke during an informal summit of the leaders of ex-Soviet states. They reported no concrete understandings afterwards.

The Kashen mine is Karabakh’s largest corporate taxpayer and private employer. It had more than 1,400 workers when Base Metals inaugurated its ore processing facilities in December 2015.