Sunday, December 22, 2024

Israel and Turkey Shape a New Syria From Their Borderlands

By Alisa Odenheimer and Selcan Hacaoglu
December 22, 2024 
BNNBLOOMBERG

(Institute for the Study of War a)

(Bloomberg) -- Syria’s leadership isn’t the only aspect of the country to be changing as a result of this month’s toppling of longtime dictator, Bashar al-Assad. The blurring of its borders is also underway — from Israel to the southwest and Turkey to the north.

Israel’s military wasted no time advancing on Syria after Assad was overthrown by Islamist-led rebels two weeks ago, with troops moving eastward into a buffer zone established by a ceasefire between the two countries 50 years ago. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is wary of a new threat after more than a year fighting Iran-backed groups Hamas and Hezbollah in the region.

“Israel will not permit jihadi groups to fill that vacuum and threaten Israeli communities,” Netanyahu’s office said last week. It described the deployment as temporary until a new Syrian administration — now led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, a former affiliate of Al-Qaeda — commits to the 1974 agreement.

Turkey has shown similar urgency in asserting its influence over a far greater portion of Syria, and US President-elect Donald Trump has called the country a key player in shaping the post-Assad political landscape.

One of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s key priorities is to push back Kurdish groups in the north with links to the PKK, an organization that’s long battled for an autonomous Kurdish region inside Turkey.


The Syrian National Army, a group funded and advised by Ankara, has seized two northwestern towns since late November from the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish ally in the US’s fight against Islamic State. The SNA will now likely try to capture more territory, Turkish officials familiar with the matter said this week.

Erdogan’s ultimate aim is to create a buffer zone along the entire 900-kilometer (560-mile) Syria-Turkey border, though that goal looks hard to achieve in its entirety. Turkey says HTS supports the dismantling of Kurdish forces, though HTS hasn’t publicly commented.

Israel’s advance has extended its control of the Golan Heights — a piece of high ground that’s been a focus of global dispute since Israel seized it from Syria during a 1967 war.

Before the fall of Assad, Israel controlled about two thirds of the territory, giving its military a view of southern Syria between the border and the capital, Damascus, 60 kilometers away, enabling it to monitor troop movements. The Golan offers fertile land — Israelis grow grapes and apples there — and is an important source of water.

While Trump officially recognized Israeli sovereignty of its Golan territory during his first term in 2019, the United Nations still considers it legally part of Syria.

Dolan Abu Salah is head of the council in Majdal Shams, a village in the Israel-controlled part of the Golan that’s home to about 12,000 Druze people, a Middle Eastern religious and ethnic group. He says the local community is broadly welcoming of the Israel Defense Force’s advance, viewing it as a necessary security measure.

Assad’s fall “was a source of very great happiness, to the people here, to the Druze residents of the Golan,” Abu Salah, 46, said in the town, nestled in the foothills of the Hermon mountain and surrounded by orchards. But the “creation of a security zone is very, very important for the Golan Heights communities.”

Asked if Israel’s capture of new territory should become permanent, the council leader said it depends on the new Syrian leadership and “the potential for peace.”

“If we see that the new regime is potentially another terrorist group that will set the agenda, then the security zone must be permanent,” Abu Salah said.

Majdal Shams was caught up in Israel’s battles with Iran-backed militias in July, when twelve children were killed and more than 20 injured in a rocket attack. Israel blamed the attack on Hezbollah, based across the border from Golan in Lebanon.

Nabih Al-Halabi, another Majdal Shams resident who works on solar-energy projects, said he’s optimistic about a stronger Israel-Syria peace deal post-Assad, but sympathizes with Israel’s wariness.

“I can understand their fears — they want to protect their borders,” he said. “They want to be sure about the stability of the new regime in Damascus and whether they will sign the peace agreement.”

Turkish Visit

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan paid a visit to Damascus on Sunday, meeting HTS leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa. Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency aired footage of the two hugging each other in front of cameras.

Fidan on Wednesday said the “last thing” the nation wants is to be seen as the regional power with final control over Syria, though the government has made contact with, as well as making military gains in the north.

“We recognize the current administration, the new one, as a legitimate partner for Turkey and international interlocutors,” Fidan said. “I think HTS has taken huge steps to divorcing itself from al-Qaeda and Daesh and other radical elements,” he said, using an alternative name for Islamic State.

Ankara has a strong incentive to secure influence over how Syria is eventually run. Turkey hosts more than 3 million refugees from its southern neighbor — a legacy of a more than 13-year war — while Turkish companies would stand to be major beneficiaries if and when postwar reconstruction starts.

“Ankara will look to shape the political and economic landscape in Syria to expand Turkish interests,” wrote Eurasia Group analysts including Emre Peker. “A good outcome in Syria for Turkey would help Erdogan project himself as an influential global leader and boost his historically low popularity.”

--With assistance from Beril Akman and Julius Domoney.

(Updates with Turkish minister’s visit in 18th paragraph.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

In data: Syria after the war

Thomas Latschan
DW
22/12/2024

The war in Syria has left a trail of destruction. The country is devastated, fragmented, and economically ruined. Millions of people are displaced, or dependent on humanitarian aid. DW presents an illustrated overview.

INFOGRAPHS


Seven million displaced people, half a million casualties of war, hunger and poverty — after 14 years of civil war, Syria is in ruins. The cost of rebuilding the country will be massive. DW has compiled some key data on the situation in Syria.

With an area of about 185,000 square kilometers, Syria is roughly half the size of Germany. Around 24 million people live in the country, two-thirds of whom are dependent on humanitarian aid. Western Syria in particular is densely populated, but there are entire metropolitan areas around cities like DamascusAleppo, Hama, and Homs that are now in ruins.

At least 140,000 buildings, including 3,000 schools, have been either completely destroyed or severely damaged. The healthcare system has also been heavily impacted across much of the country. During the war, several human rights organizations reported that Russian and Syrian forces had deliberately bombed numerous hospitals.

Estimates vary as to what it will cost to rebuild the country, but it is clear that the total will be huge — potentially as high as one trillion US dollars. Reconstruction efforts may be further complicated because Syria is heavily contaminated with landmines, and the full extent of the problem is not known. Of the more than half a million people who were killed in the war, 12,000 were killed by mines or unexploded ordnance. For years now, Syria has been one of the three countries in the world that are most seriously affected by landmines.

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Millions of refugees

Around 7 million Syrians are living as displaced persons in their own country. The northwestern province of Idlib, in particular, became a place of refuge for millions fleeing the Assad regime's forces. At least 6 million more Syrians fled abroad, the majority to the neighboring countries of Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan. Germany has also taken in almost 800,000 refugees from the war.

In Lebanon above all, the true number of Syrian refugees is likely to be far higher than the official figure. The United Nations estimates that there are between 1 and 2 million Syrians in the country. The population of Lebanon itself is only just over 5 million.

Returning to a shattered country

Many of these people would like to return to their homeland, but the future is still uncertain. After 14 years of war, Syria's economy is shattered.

The country's GDP has essentially collapsed. Unemployment is high, and those who do have work earn only a fraction of their pre-war income. Meanwhile, inflation has skyrocketed: It is now almost 30 times higher than in 2011. Today, almost all Syrians live below the poverty line defined by the World Bank. The German Red Cross reports that two-thirds of them live in extreme poverty.

Syria is fragmented


These problems are compounded by the current political uncertainty. It remains unclear how the country is going to evolve. After toppling the Assad regime, the Islamist HTS militia has taken control in Damascus and begun to form a transitional government.

The group's leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, presents himself as a moderate. However, his organization is still classified as a terrorist group by many countries, including the EU.

Foreign powers will continue to jostle for influence in Syria. Turkey and the militias it supports are fighting against the Kurds in the north. The United States maintains a military base in the southeast, from which it is able to target positions of the so-called Islamic State (IS) terrorist group in the sparsely-populated east of the country. The aim is to prevent an IS resurgence.

Meanwhile, Israel has occupied some areas of the demilitarized buffer zone near the Golan Heights in the southwest, and has carried out strategic bombings in Syria, partly out of concern that chemical weapons stockpiles might fall into the wrong hands.

Until recently, Russia maintained two strategically important military bases in the west of the country. It is unclear what will happen with them now. Iran, the biggest supporter of the Assad regime, is also trying to maintain its influence in the country as best as it can.

Religious minorities are afraid


During the long rule of Bashar Assad, Syria was considered part of the so-called "Shia Crescent" region, dominated by Iran — even though three-quarters of the Syrian population are Sunni, not Shia, Muslims. Assad himself belongs to the Alawite sect, a separate offshoot of Shia Islam.

There are some 2 to 3 million Alawites in Syria, many of whom are now afraid they may be branded beneficiaries of the Assad regime, and persecuted as a result. Officially, Syria also has more than 2 million Christians, although many are likely to have fled the country in recent years. They too are concerned about the potential for religious persecution.

What will happen to the Kurds?

During the war, the Kurds were able to establish an effectively autonomous, self-administered area in northeastern Syria, as they did in northern Iraq. Syria has almost 3 million Kurds. In neighboring Turkey, they are believed to number as many as 15 million.

Ankara is determined to prevent the creation of a Kurdish state. One of the main reasons it gives for opposing this is that "fighters from Kurdish terrorist militias" might carry out attacks in Turkey, and take refuge in northern Syria. This is why both the Turkish military and the Syrian militias it supports have continued to attack Kurdish regions in northeastern Syria, even after the fall of Assad.

At the very least, Turkey wants to establish a buffer zone controlled by its own military along the Syrian border. Ankara is presumably afraid that Kurds in Turkey may call for autonomy, or even an independent state, if they manage to achieve this in the neighboring countries.


With an estimated 25 to 30 million people worldwide, the Kurds are one of the largest ethnic groups without a state of their own. Their traditional homeland spans parts of modern-day Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. The conflicts in this region have simmered for more than a century, since the restructuring of the Middle East that followed the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I. It is therefore doubtful that the political reorganization in Syria will bring lasting peace to the northeast of the country.

This article has been translated from German.


Israel tells Syria it won't accept Jihadist presence in southern part of country

Message sent to de facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa stresses Israel intends to maintain its security and will consider leaving buffer zone should stable government be established
YNET 
22/12/2024

Jerusalem issued a message to Syria’s de factor leader Ahmad al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohammed al-Golani) saying any attempt by jihadists to move to the country’s south won’t be tolerated. 

The message further clarified that if a responsible governmental authority forms in Syria, Israel might consider transferring control of the buffer zone to it. Until then, Israel will continue to ensure its own security. This comes a week after al-Sharaa said he had no intention of clashing with Israel.
 
IDF troops in Syria
(Photo: Aris MESSINIS / AFP)


(Photo: Bakr ALKASEM / AFP)

A few days later, al-Sharaa said that Syria would adhere to the disengagement agreement signed in 1974 following the Yom Kippur War following the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime. He called on the international community to ensure that Israel remains committed to the agreement as well.

Meanwhile, Jerusalem added in its message to Syria's new leadership that the Israeli military's presence in the buffer zone is motivated by defense and security concerns, particularly in preparation for potential incidents like those of October 7, 2023, originating from Syria. "We won’t allow that to happen," officials in Jerusalem stressed.

During a recent Security Cabinet meeting held at the IDF Northern Command, participants discussed the situation in Syria and Lebanon, delving into security briefings they received. Israel understands that the rebels are trying to present a specific image to the Western world, but Jerusalem remains vigilant regarding developments in Syria.



IDF officers in Syria



Ahmad al-Sharaa
(Photo: SANA / AFP)

The deterioration of security on the Syrian side since the fall of Assad's regime prompted Israeli forces to advance into the buffer zone between the two countries to neutralize threats. According to Lebanon's Al-Mayadeen network, Israeli forces have established seven permanent positions along the buffer zone in rural areas of Damascus, Daraa and Quneitra.

The report noted that two of these positions, located in the Mount Hermon area, "overlook Damascus and its western suburbs." Syrian channels have regularly reported on the Israeli military's advances toward Syrian villages, interactions with the local population and operations at various sites near the border in recent weeks.
Expelled from Aleppo as children, these fighters returned as its liberators


Al Jazeera speaks to Syrian opposition fighters who came back to liberate their homes and pursue their dreams.

A man gestures at Saadallah al-Jabiri Square as people celebrate, after President Bashar al-Assad's 24-year authoritarian rule ended, in Aleppo, on December 8, 2024 
[Karam al-Masri/Reuters]

By Justin Salhani
22 Dec 2024
AL JAZEERA

Aleppo, Syria – When Abdallah Abu Jarrah was 13, he dreamed of becoming an engineer or a lawyer.

But his home city of Aleppo was besieged by Syrian regime forces, aided by Iran, Russia and Hezbollah.

“The situation was terrible with bombings, beatings and killing,” the now 21-year-old told Al Jazeera. “I remember the regime’s massacres, the killing, and the hitting of bakeries and hospitals.”

Eight years later, a series of images went viral on social media. Youth, displaced by the regime in 2016, had returned as fighters to liberate the city of Aleppo. The side-by-side photos showed children boarding buses in one photo. In the next photo, they are young men smiling broadly, wearing military fatigues and carrying rifles.

On December 22, 2016, a four-year battle that pitted regime forces and their allies against the opposition ended with the evacuation of thousands of opposition forces from East Aleppo on buses.

War crimes were rife.

Syrian rebel fighters who liberated the city of Aleppo [Ali Haj Suleiman/Al Jazeera]

The al-Assad regime besieged opposition areas, which included thousands of civilians, while the Russian air force bombed hospitals and bakeries. The regime used internationally banned chlorine bombs, according to the United Nations, killing hundreds.

The UN reported in November 2016, a month before the end of the battle, that East Aleppo had no working hospitals.

“The brutality and the intensity of the fighting was not seen before,” Elia Ayoub, a writer and researcher who covered the fall of Aleppo, said.

The UN also criticised opposition groups for indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas “to terrorise the civilian population” and for shooting at civilians to try and keep them from leaving the areas.

At least 35,000 people were dead and much of the city destroyed by 2016 – most of it still in ruins eight years later. At least 18 percent of the dead were children.

“I thought we would never come back,” Abu Jarrah told Al Jazeera.
Destroyed buildings opposite the Aleppo Citadel [Ali Haj Suleiman/Al Jazeera]

Capital of the Syrian revolution

When a peaceful uprising demanding reforms broke out in Syria in 2011, al-Assad responded with brutal force. The opposition took up arms and challenged the regime around the country.

The regime relied on foreign intervention. Hezbollah and Iran joined the fight in 2013 and the Russian intervention in late 2015, ostensibly to counter ISIL (ISIS), pushed the opposition back.

“Symbolically, Aleppo was the capital of the revolution,” Ayoub said. “Its fall was preceded by other cities and it was this final nail in the uprising’s coffin at that time.”

The city would stay under regime control for almost eight years. Many who fled Aleppo moved to Idlib in Syria’s northwest and huddled in displacement camps, where they suffered years of air attacks by the regime and its allies.

In November, opposition fighters led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army launched an operation to retake Aleppo.

Among the factors in their favour was that the Syrian Army was possibly weaker than it had ever been and its allies were preoccupied with their own battles – Russia in Ukraine and Iran and Hezbollah with Israel
.
The Syrian flag waves near the historic Aleppo Citadel [Ali Haj Suleiman/Al Jazeera]


I felt human again’

On November 30, the Syrian opposition reentered Aleppo for the first time in eight years and quickly took control of the city.

Among the returning fighters was Abu Jarrah, who had joined a faction in the Free Syrian Army when he was about 16.

“I felt human again,” he told Al Jazeera, his eyes shining outside the city’s historic citadel, dressed in military fatigues adorned with Syria’s green, white and black flag, with three red stars. “Today is an indescribable joy.”

Standing not far away was Abu Abdelaziz, another Free Syrian Army fighter who had fled the city when he was 17. He wore fatigues and a black face mask with a skull imprinted on the front, and carried a rifle.

“They forced us to leave, displaced us and cursed us and we returned to where we were raised, where we spent our childhood with our friends and school,” he said. “It’s a great feeling of great joy. You can’t measure it.”

Abu Abdelaziz said the first thing he did when the city was liberated was visit his old school.

“When I was young I wanted to be a heart doctor,” the fighter who is now 24 years old said. The war, however, took a heavy toll on him. His family was killed and his house in Aleppo was destroyed. Still, he said, he wanted to stay in Aleppo and become a doctor.
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“Now, God willing, I will complete my studies,” he said.

Abu Abdelaziz was displaced from Aleppo when he was a teenager. He returned at 24 to liberate the city [Ali Haj Suleiman/ Al Jazeera]

‘We will build this country together’

Aleppo is one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world and historically among the Middle East’s most economically important. Hittites, Assyrians, Arabs, Mongols, Mamelukes and Ottomans all ruled it before it became part of modern Syria. Before the civil war, it was Syria’s capital of industry and finance.

Parts of Aleppo have largely fallen into disrepair. Locals told Al Jazeera that even before the war, the regime had stopped investing in the city. But very little of the damage from the fighting from 2012 to 2016 has been repaired. Even its crown jewel, The Citadel of Aleppo, was badly damaged and left to rot. Buildings destroyed by air attacks are still visible from the foot of the Citadel today.

Even in the city’s rif – or periphery – entire neighbourhoods are completely abandoned. Collapsed roofs and crumbling facades rest behind empty pools as wild dogs roam the ghost towns.

Now that the war is over, the city’s returning fighters hope to trade in their guns to help fix their city.

“If a field of study opens up I want to complete my studies,” Abu Jarrah said. “And we will build this country together.”

In ruined homes, Palestinians recall former Syria leader’s torture

AFP/Yarmuk
 December 22, 2024 | 

Mahmud Khaled Ajaj, 30, reacts while standing before a destroyed apartment building in the Yarmuk camp for Palestinian refugees south of Damascus.

School lessons ended in Syria’s biggest Palestinian refugee camp on October 18, 2012, judging by the date still chalked up on the board more than a decade later.

“I am playing football”; “She is ea
ting an apple”; “The boys are flying a kite” are written in English.

Outside, the remaining children in the Damascus suburb of Yarmuk now play among the shattered ruins left by Syria’s years of civil war.

And as the kids chase through clouds of concrete dust, a torture victim — freed from jail this month when rebels toppled Bashar al-Assad’s government — hobbles through the rubble.

“Since I left the prison until now, I sleep one or two hours max,” 30-year-old Mahmud Khaled Ajaj said.

Since 1957, Yarmuk has been a 2.1-square-kilometre (519-acre) “refugee camp” for Palestinians displaced by the founding of the modern Israeli state.

SHATTERED CITY
Like similar camps across the Middle East, over the decades it has become a dense urban community of multi-storey concrete housing blocks and businesses.

According to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, at the start of Syria’s conflict in 2011 it was home to 160,000 registered refugees. Rebellion, air strikes and a siege by government forces had devastated the area and left by September this year only 8,160 people still clinging to life in the ruins.

With Assad’s fall, more may return to reopen the damaged schools and mosques, but many like Ajaj will have terrible tales to tell of Assad’s persecution.

The former Free Syrian Army rebel fighter spent seven years in government custody, most of it at the notorious Saydnaya prison, and was only released when Assad’s rule ended on December 8.

Ajaj’s face is still paler than those of his neighbours, who are tanned from sitting outside ruined homes, and he walks awkwardly with a back brace after years of beatings. At one point, a prison doctor injected him in the spine and partly paralysed him — he thinks on purpose — but what really haunts him was the hunger in his packed cell. 

“My neighbours and relatives know that I had little food, so they bring me food and fruit. I don’t sleep if the food is not next to me. The bread, especially the bread,” he said.

 “Yesterday, we had bread leftovers,” he said, relishing being outside after his windowless group cell, and ignoring calls from his family to come to see a concerned aunt.

“My parents usually keep them for the birds to feed them. I told them: ‘Give part of them to the birds and keep the rest for me. Even if they are dry or old I want them for me’.” As Ajaj spoke to AFP, two passing Palestinian women paused to see if he had any news of missing relatives since Syria’s ousted leader fled to Russia.

The International Committee of the Red Cross has documented more than 35,000 cases of disappearances under Assad’s rule.

Ajaj’s ordeal was extreme, but the entire Yarmuk community has suffered on the frontline of Assad’s war for survival, with Palestinians roped into fighting on both sides.

The graveyard is cratered by air strikes. Families struggle to find the tombs of their dead amid the devastation. The scars left by mortar strikes dot empty basketball courts.

Here and there, bulldozers are trying to shift rubble and the homeless try to scavenge re-usable debris. Some find work, but others struggle with trauma.

Haitham Hassan al-Nada, a lively and wild-eyed 28-year-old, invited an AFP reporter to run his hand over lumps he says are bullets still lodged in his skull and hands. His father, a local trader, supports him and his wife and two children after Assad’s forces shot him and left him for dead as a deserter from the government side.

Nada told AFP he fled service because, as a Palestinian, he did not think he should have to serve in Syrian forces. He was caught and shot multiple times, he said.

“They called my mother after they ‘killed’ me, so she went to the airport road, towards Najha. They told her ‘This is the dog’s body, the deserter’,” he said.

“They didn’t wash my body, and when she was kissing me to say goodbye before they buried me, suddenly and by God’s power, it’s unbelievable, I took a deep breath.” After Nada was released from hospital, he returned to Yarmuk and found a scene of devastation.

 

Human smugglers welcome Trump's return

FOR the human smugglers who ferry migrants northwards from Central America, the return of Donald Trump is a welcome New Year gift that promises to supercharge their business.

"Bless Donald Trump for winning," said one people smuggler, who talked on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal from Mexico's authorities as well as its drug cartels.

"We're eagerly waiting for Jan 20 to be back in business and start earning some more dollars," said the 45-year-old, who has spent the past six years transporting undocumented migrants, most from Central America and the Caribbean, to the United States.

Now he is banking on a pickup in trade due to Trump's campaign promise to crack down on migrants once he takes office on Jan 20, vowing to lengthen the border wall to keep migrants out and enforce mass deportations of those who have made it

Like thousands of other smugglers, he is hoping to cash in big time from Trump's return, expecting an increase of at least US$2,000 in profits per person.

Smugglers, or coyotes as they are called locally, are also tapping into a rising sense of panic among migrants, many of whom are fleeing deepening violence and poverty, fearing it will become harder to gain asylum under a second Trump presidency.

Even before Trump won re-election, smugglers were peddling disinformation and scams on social media, telling migrants to make it to the southern US border before Trump takes office as his presidency will make it harder to cross.

In recent years, the father of three said he had ferried about 30 people a week to the United States, be it young men or families with children, charging at least US$5,000 a head for passage to a new life by plane, bus or car.

His business comes from word-of-mouth recommendations from families who have made it to the US, and the smuggler said he also connects migrants with a series of safe houses where they can eat, sleep and use the Internet.

This past year, he said, business was down 80 per cent after the US Customs and Border Protection (CBB) agency set up an app that let migrants make their asylum claim at the border.

Instead of hiring a smuggler to get them across, migrants instead waited at the border in Mexico for an appointment, even if it meant living several months in areas rife with crime.

Last year, there were 1,450 appointments available a day on the CBP One app.

But as Trump has vowed to get rid of the app, effectively closing the main legal option for people seeking asylum, this will likely raise demand for smuggler services.

"They say they will close the border, but we always find a hole to sneak people through.

"They can't close the entire border, it's impossible," said the smuggler.

The coyote said he had a near-100 per cent success rate by scaling the wall in areas controlled by cartels.

On the US side, he then drives the migrants to their chosen destination.

Trump is expected to declare illegal immigration a national emergency on taking office, pulling resources from across the government to crack down on both legal and illegal immigration.

Yet tightening the restrictions does not dissuade people from migrating, said Maureen Meyer with the Washington Office on Latin America (Wola), a human rights advocacy group.

"Increased enforcement does very little to decrease migration flows to the United States. What it does is feed profits into organised criminal groups," said Meyer, Wola's vice-president for programmes.

According to 2017 estimates by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, human trafficking to the US earns criminal groups up to US$4.2 billion a year.

Smugglers also pay corrupt officials so they can get through checkpoints expressly set up to catch migrants, the coyote said.

Cartel violence is especially fierce in Chiapas state in southern Mexico, a key crossing point for migrants heading north from Central America or from as far as the Darien Gap, a perilous stretch of rainforest straddling Colombia and Panama.

Every child and adult pays 1,200 pesos to the cartel just for the right to cross the river that divides Mexico and Guate-mala.

Whoever refuses to pay — migrant and smugglers alike — runs a high risk of kidnap or murder.

*The writer is from Reuters

Trump vows to end Middle East chaos, prevent World War III




2024-12-22 13:28

Shafaq News/ On Sunday, US President-elect Donald Trump asserted that he will end the war in Ukraine, address the chaos in the Middle East, and prevent the outbreak of World War III.

In a Christmas speech, Trump announced that he would direct the military to "establish an Iron Dome system to protect the US's skies."

These statements come less than a month before Trump officially assumes office as President of the United States.

Trump added, "We will stop engaging in the foolish foreign wars that the United States has entered."

Regarding the United States' relationship with neighboring countries, Trump said, "I have informed officials in Mexico that what is happening at our border is unacceptable," referring to the influx of migrants towards the US border.

Trump also claimed that his country is "being robbed in the Panama Canal," emphasizing that "securing it is crucial for American trade."

On Saturday, Trump threatened to regain control of the Panama Canal, accusing Panama of imposing exorbitant fees for using the canal that connects the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

In a post on his social media platform "Truth Social" on Saturday, Trump also warned that he would not allow the canal to fall into "the wrong hands," seemingly cautioning against potential Chinese influence over the waterway, stating that the canal "should not be managed by China."


Who is we? Of mice and men in longevity science | Book Reviews

LONG READ

Jason Fletcher
December 22nd, 2024
LSE 

The re-election of Donald Trump to the US presidency this year has brought focus on pseudoscience in healthcare and the search for ‘silver bullets’ in health and longevity research. Jason Fletcher reviews three books which purport to have insights into how to live longer: Outlive: The Science and Art of Longevity by Peter Attia, Lifespan: Why we age—And why we don’t have to by David Sinclair, and How We Age: The Science of Longevity by Coleen Murphy. He writes that these books’ focus on ‘silver bullet’ solutions to aging takes focus away from slow diseases which are leading us to have shorter and less healthy lives.


Murphy, Coleen, How We Age: The Science of Longevity, Princeton University Press, 2023


On November 15th, the president-elect, Donald Trump announced that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would be his nominee for Secretary of Health and Human Services. If RFK Jr. is confirmed by the US Senate and becomes health secretary, it will be an unfortunate watershed moment for the mainstreaming of pseudoscience in America. The grand irony of this is not lost on public health researchers: we’ll be appointing the country’s preeminent vaccine opponent to lead the Department of Health and Human Services only a few years after the world witnessed the unprecedented effectiveness and speed of discovery of COVID-19 vaccines. According to the National Institutes of Health, this modern marvel of science may have prevented more than 14 million deaths across the world in its first year alone. This was made possible thanks to randomized controlled trials (RCTs), which provide gold-standard evidence of a cause-and-effect relationship between an intervention (such as a drug) and a pre-specified outcome of interest.

Thanks to the COVID-19 vaccine, RCTs seemingly reclaimed their place on the pedestal of public consciousness, and many in public health hoped that the vaccine’s success foreshadowed a reversal in the popularization of pseudoscience and its more subtle cousin, the bait-and-switch, where instead of evidence and intervention strategies, we have “concepts of a plan”.

Searching for more public health ‘silver bullets’

Unfortunately, this hasn’t been the case. Americans continue to search for silver bullets for all manner of health issues, while the closest thing to a public health silver bullet in decades continues to be attacked by communities on the cusp of taking control of the American government. Part of the problem is that most of our remaining health questions are much more resistant to silver bullet answers than COVID-19 was. It is tougher to crowd out strategies with no evidence base, like injecting disinfectant to cure COVID-19, without gold-standard evidence to take their place (and even then…). We want to believe that a similar level of success is right around the corner for other causes of death and ailments, yet we have been fighting a seemingly intractable war on cancer for over fifty years. We have obesity, diabetes and opioid epidemics. Heart disease continues to kill millions. Central to these failures may be their slow accumulating effects. It turns out fast deaths, including many infectious diseases, have advantages; their speed allows us to know quickly and clearly when something works or does not. This is the perfect situation to leverage an RCT. We do not have to wait 20, 50, or 70 years to see if it works. But our remaining enemies work slowly to wear down our systems, to use our slow body processes of cell division and growth against us.

A lack of progress, zero RCTs showing human longevity gains, and the innate desire by humans to prolong life make for excellent pseudoscience and bait-and-switch markets, including a thriving literary genre. Most are pure snake oil salespersons not constrained by scientific evidence or standards. These “wellness experts” flourish in breathlessly touting the newest miracle diet or the newest exercise regimen. However, some authors in the longevity science genre take different tacks, and the successful authors who groan at the snake oil while making their own cases by employing a bait-and-switch, rather than straight pseudoscience are particularly revealing. These authors have 200-400 pages to fill and, in the end, zero silver bullets to show, so what do they do?
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. speaking with supporters at a campaign rally at the Fox Tucson Theatre in Tucson, Arizona, February 2024.
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.” (CC BY-SA 2.0) by Gage Skidmore

Before loading their own counterfeit silver bullets, many authors trudge through a dense and anecdote-filled wasteland. They often write at length about individual centenarians—Betty smoked every day for 86 years, while Herb has eaten only bacon every morning since World War II and has eight percent body fat. Or they describe so-called ‘blue zones’ that mysteriously overproduce centenarians and provide surface-level observations about how one place is known for its beach and laid-back lifestyle while another one serves a lot of fish. After some wishy-washy “wouldn’t it be great if the beach was a silver bullet” discussion, we typically then move on to the even more treacherous wasteland of epidemiological studies, a posterchild of the warning, “correlation does not imply causation”. The treachery here comes in the form of the many promised oases dressed up as RCTs, often after the author has highlighted several mirages from other sources that we are too smart to have fallen for. Indeed, often we stay at a last oasis for the remainder of the book.

Attia, Peter, and Bill Gifford. Outlive: The Science and Art of Longevity. Random House, 2023.

Peter Attia is one of the country’s most popular “wellness experts” who runs in similar circles to RFK Jr. (they have both appeared on the popular podcast, the Joe Rogan Experience), yet his work maintains a patina of scientific rigor. His 2023 book, Outlive: The Science and Art of Longevity is an apt example of this genre. Burnishing his “bro science” bona fides, he begins by highlighting extreme exercise and related performance (a favorite metric is VO2 max)—“exercise is by far the most potent longevity ‘drug’”. The quality of evidence for this is comparable to headline-grabbing studies associating red wine with early mortality or, conversely, extended life. Dr. Attia then moves through diet, sleep, emotional health and drugs, essentially with the same quality of evidence, which largely consists of centenarian anecdotes, research that ‘works’ in animal tests, and the epidemiological studies wasteland. It follows the tried-and-true template of focusing on the sheer number of existing studies and a heavy dose of anecdotes. Put another way, it’s the shock-and-awe approach that comes with rattling off specious study after specious study while sprinkling in compelling human-interest stories.

We are also meant to be dazzled by the level of surveillance we could engage in if so desired – diet is now “nutritional biochemistry” and we can personalize our eating patterns with our genetics and individuality. Likewise, the variety of sleep monitoring devices is massive, but the evidence that directly links specific sleep-related intervention targets with longevity is missing. And I don’t even know where to begin with the claims about exercise. One such claim that quantity beats quality of evidence notes, “…the epidemiology linking strength and cardiorespiratory fitness to lower risk for neurodegeneration is so uniform in its direction and magnitude that my own skepticism of the power of exercise has melted away.” Many dream of an exchange rate where enough bad studies eventually convert into one good one.

Attia makes an interesting claim that the key solution to the slow wear and tear on our bodies is to intensely focus on fortifying your body against the inevitable. There is a very similar idea in Alzheimer’s Disease of cognitive reserve. Faced with no effective treatments for dementia and an overwhelming lack of understanding, a remaining idea is to start our inevitable cognitive decline from a higher hill. The current hope is that educational attainment and stimulating work environments might all add to the height of our hill that we then slowly roll down later in life until we meet dementia criteria. Attia promotes a similar, but much more interventionalist, idea to invest in our own physical functioning reserves so that we start at a higher level when the declines start and thus might roll into death with high levels of physical functioning (that is, having a high ‘health span’). It’s an interesting idea, but we have no evidence that it works. Perhaps just as likely is that these maximalist interventions—always having a 30lb rucksack strapped to our backs—could cause injuries and make us not enjoy our life during our prime, which appear nowhere in Attia’s calculus. And again, it appears that his evidence is subject to a vote rather than our typical criteria: “While we can’t establish causality here, the strength and reproducibility of findings suggest this is more than just a correlation. Muscle helps us survive old age.”

The reader should be left with a great deal of uncertainty—we were promised the science of longevity, and we got it; it’s just incremental, inspirational, and aspirational. It’s not quite wiping down our grocery bags during COVID-19, but these are bullets painted silver.

Sinclair, David A., and Matthew D. LaPlante. Lifespan: Why we age—And why we don’t have to. Atria books, 2019.

In his 2019 book, Why We Age—And Why We Don’t Have To, David Sinclair approaches the subject differently than Attia. Sinclair is a scientist/researcher/professor at Harvard. He produces, rather than merely summarizes and amplifies, research. The reader still gets a walk through the wasteland with stops at various oases. But Sinclair also has a different focus, which is to move the goalpost. We learn a lot about lifespan and treatment successes… for worms and mice. It turns out that the US government (under NIH) and many venture capitalists have made major investments over several decades that have served to increase survival of yeast and worms. And using the tried-and-true method of bait and switch, readers are encouraged to dream about how these advances for worms will transform human longevity through understanding and tinkering with our biology.

Some choice passages include: “[DNA] can also tell you what food to eat, what microbiomes to cultivate in your gut and on your skin, and what therapies will work best to ensure that you reach your maximum potential lifespan”, “It won’t be long before prescribing a drug without first knowing a patient’s genome will seem medieval”, and “In the near future, proactive personal DNA scanning is going to be as routine as brushing our teeth.” This is certainly what 23andme was hoping for in their recent shift to subscription services en route to a complete collapse and probable removal from the Nasdaq. We never arrive at RCTs that show that what we’ve done to worms ports over to humans. The closest we get is an “ongoing” RCT for Metformin on longevity, which as far as I can tell has still not started, five years past the book’s claims. It’s an interesting form of snake oil – it’s not lying (exactly) when you encourage people to hope that we are like worms.

Murphy, Coleen, How We Age: The Science of Longevity, Princeton University Press, 2023

Coleen Murphy’s 2023 book splits the difference a bit but leans more toward Sinclair with much more restraint. The book’s title, How We Age: The Science of Longevity, might be the most fraught for a purportedly serious and scientific book – who would have guessed that in an age of so much disagreement over proper pronoun use, “we” could get in the crosshairs? In this case, the main issue is that her human audience might expect that “we” equals “humans.” Only after slogging through 350 pages of experiments on flies, worms, and mice do we (the readers) realize the “we” to be a bait-and-switch. Sometimes, we do get some “we” advice for “we, the reader’s species”, but here Murphy includes flourishes reminiscent of Attia: “…but one of the easiest ways to extend our lifespan…is to exercise more” with no accompanying gold standard evidence in humans. While she focuses on worms, she mercifully does not traverse the wasteland that Attia and Sinclair trudge through.

Starting out, Murphy soothes that she won’t tell us what she eats or weighs or how she exercises because this is “just bad science.” But then she guards her flank (and the pronoun in her title) by telling us in advance that she will not be “using the popular phrase, ‘…at least in worms and flies.’” Of course, the phrase is popular because we (humans) really do want to know whether extending a worm’s life by 50 percent (aka, a couple weeks) has any meaning for us (humans); but Murphy is not going to play this diminutive game of qualifying the insights of her book. This is because “almost all we know” about longevity was first understood in model systems (e.g. worms) and then “tested later in higher organisms (mammals like mice)…”. She claims that we are “right in the middle” of understanding aging but that we don’t yet know “all of the answers”. Seems fine so far. Maybe this will be a purely descriptive book about worms and mice, just to satisfy our interest in these animals, right? Maybe the “we” is indeed supposed to be read as worms. Yet, she can’t resist ending her introduction by saying, “With this information at our disposal, we should be able to make wise decisions about how to manage our own longevity.” Here the “we” is not actually the worms but the readers. And now we are back to hopes and dreams.

While the Murphy book is a scientifically driven analysis (so many worms!), the author succumbs to the temptation to stretch a bit; to try to get back to the subject of her title: We. Many findings on mice or worms have “promise” as a “possible clinical therapeutic” or “may represent a new class of longevity treatments to be explored” with no accompanying evidence. The reader also gets a short excursion into findings on human athletes’ declining performance with age: “While anaerobic (sprinting) events generally show greater changes with age—just like a worm’s decline in maximum velocity…aerobic performance also declines, but at a later stage.” (italics added). It is in this way that the author, and this wing of the longevity-industrial complex, entices readers’ yearnings for good news. This aligns it with other full-on proclamations from Sinclair and Attia. The reader should wonder if the book should have been titled, How (Some) Creatures Age. But would humans buy this book?

No silver bullets in longevity science

We might ask ourselves if we are repeating history. It’s not exactly as if our pursuit of longer lives or even immortality are new concepts. Selling the possibility certainly isn’t. But with so few actual silver bullets, most disease categories – as well as the longevity-focused investigators filling our bookstores and social media feeds – must toggle between incremental progress and hocking hope. Bruno Latour, the famed French intellectual, described the pre-Pasteur hygienists of mid-19th century France as having “…an accumulation of advice, precautions, recipes, opinions, remedies, regulations, anecdotes, case studies” because illness, “…can be caused by almost anything. Typhus may be due to contagion, but it may also be due to the soil, the air, and/or overcrowding. Nothing must be ignored, nothing dismissed.” Swap in aging for illness here and you have an apt description of what longevity science boils down to in 2024. Like our “wellness experts,” the 19th century hygienists similarly wandered adrift in a wasteland where “none of the evidence certain and none can be abandoned.” Latour labels this circumstance “all-round combat” because “…if anything can cause illness, nothing can be ignored.” Mix in enormous uncertainty and our current methods of surveillance, and we quickly arrive at Latour’s conclusion that, “to act everywhere is to act nowhere…like an army trying to defend a long frontier by spreading its forces thin.”

Further dividing our own forces to also defend against findings from animal models in addition to accumulated folk tales leaves us continuing to hope for a miracle while slouching toward shorter and less healthy lives. As we saw during the COVID-19 pandemic, we know how to go about getting an answer to these questions by deploying sufficient resources to attain gold standard evidence in humans. We also learned a great deal about the importance of combatting the snake oil salespeople and the loudest storytellers, and the Herculean effort required to do so in an information environment awash with counterfeit silver bullets and their enthusiastic purveyors. A big part of that is figuring out our scientific pronouns—whether “we” is we or them or everything. This in itself is a new battlefront in “all-round combat” yet unresolved.

Note: This review gives the views of the reviewer, and not the position of USAPP – American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics.

Shortened URL for this post: https://wp.me/p3I2YF-eHe

About the author

Jason Fletcher is a Vilas Distinguished Achievement Professor of Public Affairs with appointments in Applied Economics and Population Health Sciences at the La Follette School of Public Affairs at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. A specialist in health economics, economics of education, social genomics, and child and adolescent health policy, Professor Fletcher focuses his research on examining social network effects on adolescent education and health outcomes, combining genetics and social science research, estimating long-term consequences of childhood mental illness, and examining how in utero and early life conditions affect later life health, cognition, and mortality.
Posted In: Book Reviews | Healthcare and public services
THE GRIFT

Who is Stephen Miran? Trump taps ex-Treasury official as chair of Council of Economic Advisers

Reuters |
Dec 22, 2024 

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Donald Trump said that Stephen Miran, a Treasury Department adviser in his first administration, would be the chair of his Council of Economic Advisers.

President-elect Donald Trump said on Sunday that Stephen Miran, a Treasury Department adviser in his first administration, would be the chair of his Council of Economic Advisers.

President-elect Donald Trump (AP)

The council advises the president on economic policy and is composed of three members, including the chair. The council assists in the preparation of an annual report that gives an overview of the country's economy, reviews federal policies and programs and makes economic policy recommendations.

Earlier this year, Miran and economist Nouriel Roubini authored a hedge fund study that said the U.S. Treasury last year effectively provided economic stimulus by moderating long-dated bond sales.

The study echoed suggestions by Republican lawmakers that the Treasury deliberately increased issuance of short-term Treasury bills to give the economy a "sugar high" ahead of the November elections. The Treasury denied any such strategy.

Miran, a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital, has also argued that fears over trade tariffs that Trump has threatened to impose after he takes office next month are overblown.


Trade and economic experts have said such duties would raise prices and would effectively be a new tax on consumers.

Last month, Trump tapped Kevin Hassett, who was a key economic adviser in his first term, to chair his National Economic Council, which helps set domestic and international economic policy.

Hudson Bay Capital took a position in Trump's social media firm Trump Media & Technology in the first quarter of this year.
Sam Altman lambasts Elon Musk as ‘Bully’, reveals why he has ‘issues’ with OpenAI

ByShweta Kukreti
Dec 22, 2024
HINDUSTAN TIMES

Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, has opened up about his complicated relationship with billionaire Elon Musk, calling the Tesla CEO a “bully.”

Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, has opened up about his complicated relationship with billionaire Elon Musk, calling the Tesla CEO a “bully.” Altman also discussed Musk's propensity to publicly quarrel with other well-known people, including Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos

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Sam Altman argued that Elon Musk's problems with OpenAI are a result of his need for power and that he would be happy with the company's course if he were the head. (AFP)

Musk quit OpenAI in 2018 after being one of the company's first investors. Altman and Musk co-founded OpenAI in 2015 with an aim to develop AI technology for human advantage. However, their collaboration deteriorated when Musk quit the firm, citing conflicts over its governance and direction. Following his exit, Musk emerged as an outspoken opponent of OpenAI, bringing legal action and claiming that the company misled him when it first started.



Elon Musk on his relationship with Altman

In a recent interview to the Free Press, Altman was asked about his equation with Musk and his issues with OpenAI. “Right now, it's me. It's been Bezos, Gates, Zuckerberg, lots of other people,” he said.

Altman further argued that Musk's problems with OpenAI are a result of his need for power and that he would be happy with the company's course if he were the head. “Everything we're doing, I believe Elon would be happy about if he were in control of OpenAI,” he stated.

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Also Read: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman to donate $1 million to Donald Trump's inaugural fund
Altman expresses confidence that Musk wouldn't abuse his authority

Altman, meanwhile, voiced confidence that Musk wouldn't abuse his position of authority to hurt rivals in response to worries about his possible influence under a second Trump administration. “I think there are people who will really be a jerk on Twitter who will still not abuse the system of the country,” he stated.


In an interview with the New York Times DealBook Summit, it would be incredibly un-American to use political power to harm your rivals and benefit your own companies. “I may turn out to be wrong, but I believe pretty strongly that Elon will do the right thing.”

Musk is presently suing Microsoft and OpenAI, alleging that they deviated from the project's initial charitable purpose. The Wall Street Journal claims that xAI, which he founded, is worth $50 billion, securing a place among the world's most valuable firms.

 

Russia’s arms exports slump, Kremlin preparing for possible war with Nato

Russia’s arms exports slump, Kremlin preparing for possible war with Nato
Russian arms exports have plummeted by 92% since 2021 as the Kremlin needs all the arms it produces to supply the army in Ukraine. It has used up a large part of its stocks and despite the heavy spending doesn't have the productive capacity to meet its own demand. / bne IntelliNews
By Ben Aris in Berlin December 20, 2024

Russian arms exports have plummeted by 92% since 2021, according to defence policy expert Pavel Luzin, as the Kremlin redirects all its military production to supplying the conflict in Ukraine.

Industry analysts warn that the sector’s long-term health hinges on a swift conclusion of the war in Ukraine and is putting pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to start ceasefire talks with Kyiv.

Arms exports used to be the second biggest export product after oil, but revenue from the sale of Russian arms will plummet to under $1bn by the end of 2024, Luzin, a lecturer at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, speaking at the "Country and World: Russian Realities 2024" conference in Berlin said at the end of November. This marks a sharp fall from $14.6bn in 2021, $8bn in 2022, and $3bn in 2023.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reported that Russia fell to third place in global arms exports in 2023, overtaken by the United States and France. This comes after a sustained decline in Russia’s defence exports, which halved between 2014 and 2018. By 2023, Russia was supplying weapons to only 12 countries, compared to 31 in 2019, illustrating its shrinking influence in the global arms trade.

The state-owned defence conglomerate Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov recently confirmed that Russian arms sales were valued at $15bn in 2021 but fell to $7bn in 2022 and $6bn in 2023. Figures for 2024 have yet to be released, but industry forecasts predict an even steeper decline.

“We see that Russia as an arms exporter has generally failed,” Luzin said, attributing the drop to sanctions, disrupted logistics, and waning client confidence.

The falling exports undermine Russia’s relations with its partners in the Global South, which rely on cheap but sophisticated weapons in their own security arrangements. One of the topics on the agenda during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Putin in July was the delayed delivery of Russia’s advanced S-400 surface to air missile defence system that India ordered and wants to protect its northern borders with China and Pakistan.

Satellite photos posted online by Russian military bloggers (milbloggers) show that the stocks of Soviet-era tanks and APC, among other equipment, are nearly empty. The Kremlin has been forced to turn to allies like North Korea and Iran to top up its supplies of missiles, shells and drones.

Shortages make ceasefire talks more likely

Putin quickly put Russia’s economy on a war footing following invasion in February 2022 and output of arms and ammo soared. However, that has left little over to meeting Russia’s export obligations.

Despite heavy investment in the military industrial complex, the output has not been able to meet demand and Russia has been running down in its military stocks much faster than they can be replenished.

Ukraine is also desperately short of materiel and entirely dependent on Western allies for supplies. Ukraine does not have the resources to reclaim occupied Crimea and Donbas by military means, so it is counting on diplomacy – Zelenskiy said on December 18 in Brussels.

"The Russians now control these territories. We do not have the strength to reclaim them. We can only count on diplomatic pressure from the international community to force Putin to sit at the negotiating table."

Both armies are running low and as the war enters its end game, with widespread speculation that the incoming President-elect Donald Trump will bring the fighting to an end, it is hoped that Putin will be forced to make some compromises and offer a “just peace.”

"Real negotiations for a lasting peace will begin only when the enemy no longer has the resources to continue the war," head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Andriy Yermak told the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities in Lviv on December 19, as cited by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Russia intends to win the war in 2025

In lieu of a deal, the Kremlin is preparing for a protracted war and getting ready to rebuild its military might. In September, the Kremlin launched a long-term military reconstitution programme aimed at restoring the losses incurred during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“It is clear that the military-industrial complex is counting on a halt, a freeze, an end to the war in order to return to fulfilling export contracts… because they provided a good inflow of hard currency,” Luzin said.

Putin has already increased the upper limit of men under arms to 1.5mn on September 16 from 1mn previously, but the biggest challenge will be to equip them and replace the materiel already used over the last two years of war – and pay for it.

Russia plans to continue the war until it fully occupies four annexed regions in 2025, Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov said on December 17 at a meeting with senior defence ministry officials. According to Belousov only 1% of the territory of Luhansk and 25-30% of the territory of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions remain under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU),

He said that Moscow intends to fully seize the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine in the new year and that Russia will achieve "the goals announced by President Putin in June," adding: "In 2025, Moscow plans to win the war."

Moscow is not satisfied with current proposals to freeze the war, so Russian troops will continue to fight if Ukraine does not agree to Putin's conditions, Russia's UN representative, Vasily Nebenzia, said at a Security Council meeting the same day.

At the defence ministry meeting Belousov also raised the possibility of a conflict between Russia and Nato breaking out for the first time that could happen sometime in the coming years.

Belousov said that the Kremlin is also against any Nato participation in ending the war, as talk of Nato peacekeepers in Ukraine goes from “unthinkable” to “discussed”.

On June 14, Putin said that Russia would agree to a ceasefire and peace talks only if Ukraine withdrew from four Ukrainian regions and formally abandoned its aspirations to join Nato. The demands also included recognition of Crimea and Sevastopol as part of Russia. More recently leaked comments from the Kremlin suggest there is some wiggle room in the proposed negotiations and the Kremlin is prepared to offer “limited” territorial concessionsReuters reported in November.

Europe is as unprepared for a direct conflict with Russia, but, as bne IntelliNews reported, has a much more serious shortfall of arms and productive capacity after decades of underinvestment. With the leading EU members wracked by budget crises, it also has a lot less money to spend on rearming. Germany, in particular, which has the second largest army in Europe on paper, will not be able to return to pre-war levels of armament for decades.

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for PERMANENT ARMS ECONOMY


Turkey, Syria tandem could mean piped Qatari gas for Europe and a supercharged Middle East clean energy transition

Turkey, Syria tandem could mean piped Qatari gas for Europe and a supercharged Middle East clean energy transition
A Turkish-Syrian grid integration could see Turkey assist Syria in tapping into its abundant solar resources. / kallerna, cc-by-sa 4.0
By bne IntelliNews December 21, 2024

Turkey as the terminus for a new pipeline bringing gas up from the world’s largest gas field in the Gulf off the peninsula of Qatar. Turkey as the premier gas hub serving Europe. Turkey as a crucial node in the emerging Eastern Mediterranean electricity network. And Turkey as the northern anchor of a growing regional power system integrating vast renewable energy investments expanded across Syrian territory. The energy role that Turkey could theoretically wield as a result of the collapse of the half-a-century-old Assad dynasty of neighbouring Syria are immeasurable.

Having backed the winning side in the 13-year-long multi-sided Syria conflict, the Turks, who are working closely with the militants seeking to erect a viable post-Assad government in Damascus, are very much in the room when it comes to shaping Syria’s future.

The energy prize could be huge. But not, say the sceptics, if the new Syria dissolves into a case of rats in a barrel. Renewed conflict could deal a fatal blow to many of the energy ambitions currently causing tangible excitement among Turkish energy officials, but there again, even a stabilised western side of the country might open the door to some tempting investments. One of those could be a Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Jordan-Syria-Turkey pipeline that would ship vast volumes of gas from the Qatari side of the North Dome/South Pars field shared with Iran in the Gulf to Turkey for forwarding to Europe.

As observed in a commentary by Karim Elgendy, a Chatham House associate fellow who specialises in analysing fields including the energy transition, Ankara’s vision is that Turkey will serve as the key transit point between gas producers to its east and south, and markets to its west.

A new stability in Syria could allow, concurs Elgendy, “the revival of the long-dormant pipeline project to connect Qatari natural gas fields with Turkey via Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria. The plan had been rejected by the Assad regime, reportedly to protect Russian gas exports into European markets [on behalf of ally Russia]. It took the Turkish energy minister, Alparslan Bayraktar, just two days after [president Bashar al-]Assad’s fall to publicly express openness to revisiting the plan.”

“By creating a gas pipeline to the west of Syria,” continues Elgendy, “and connecting to the existing Arab Gas Pipeline network (which links Syria, Jordan, and Egypt) Turkey could [also] offer regional gas producers such as Israel and Egypt a more commercially viable route to European markets than current [liquefied natural gas] LNG alternatives. 

“This would effectively challenge the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) – an alliance that includes Egypt, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, Palestine, Jordan, Italy, and France. 

“The EMGF’s flagship EastMed Pipeline project has struggled with technical and financial viability, with its proposed 1,900-kilometer [1,181-mile] deepwater pipeline connecting Israel and Cyprus to Greece making little progress. The pipeline was also dealt a significant blow when the US withdrew support in 2022.

“A land-based route through Syria to Turkey’s existing infrastructure would provide a shorter, technically simpler, and more cost-effective alternative.”

Would a "stable" Syria cooperating with Turkey in energy policy prove the missing link for multiple major gas pipeline, renewables and grid investments in the Middle East? (Credit: CIA World Factbook, cc, public domain).

Does it all sound too good to be true? Perhaps. Another downside for Turkey in betting on a gas hub-and-spoke model to reap lucrative energy export rewards is that, even if Syria does stabilise in a favourable way for Ankara, Europe’s appetite for gas will fall off beyond 2030 amid the push for net zero to address the climate crisis. Not surprisingly, for international financiers the attraction of investments in fossil fuel infrastructure is on the wane.  

The critical decision of Turkey, notes Elgendy, is “whether to pursue traditional gas hub ambitions that may face diminishing returns, seeking influence through traditional pipeline politics – or to leverage this moment to position itself at the centre of the region’s clean energy transition”. 

Concludes the analyst: “Prioritizing sustainable energy over conventional gas networks seems the best method by which Turkey could transform its temporary strategic advantage into lasting regional influence.

“Regardless, the choices Ankara makes in the coming months will be pivotal for its future as a regional hub – and for the entire Eastern Mediterranean energy landscape.”

The cost of the Syrian post-war reconstruction will, by some estimates, run to an estimated $400bn. Given such enormous expenditure and opportunities to start afresh in infrastructure, for Syria now might be the time to bite the bullet and go big on energy beyond fossil fuels. And, alongside his enthusiasm for gas, Bayraktar has indicated that Ankara would be interested in collaborating with Syria in this area.

Bayraktar, who in late November took a Turkish green energy roadshow to London, during which, in a meeting coordinated by JPMorgan, he spoke with senior executives of global companies operating in renewables, says Turkey aims to boost its combined wind (offshore and onshore) and solar (including floating solar) energy capacity from 30 gigawatts to 120 GW by 2035 with $108bn of public and private investment.

Though often the target of brickbats for its continued major use of coal in generating power (the country now leads Europe in this particular “dirty” table), Turkey also regularly wins plaudits for the rate of expansion seen in its renewable energy network and is looking to build a range of large and small nuclear power plants, despite serious delays. Some 43% of electricity in the country was generated through wind, solar and hydroelectric in 2023.

At the late November Istanbul Energy Forum, Alkim Bag Gullu, director of SHURA Energy Transition Center, pointed out Turkey’s ambitious goals in building up renewables within the energy mix, including rollouts of battery energy storage capacity. “[..A]s of today, approximately 35 gigawatts of battery energy storage capacity has been allocated to be integrated into wind and solar plants,” he said.

For practical assistance in managing an energy revolution, it seems Syria need look no further than its northern neighbour.

“This [renewables] model is particularly relevant given Syria’s abundant solar resources and urgent need to rebuild its power generation capacity to fuel economic development,” says Elgendy.

Indeed, a Turkish-Syrian grid integration drawing on a radical commitment to renewables could even drive development of the emerging Eastern Mediterranean electricity network.

For Elgendy, the network’s other components – the Egypt-Saudi Arabia Inter-connector, the Great Sea Inter-connector (Israel-Cyprus-Greece), and the GREGY Inter-connector (Egypt-Greece) – collectively represent “an emerging power architecture that could transform regional energy security and support the integration of renewables. It could also foster economic cooperation and help reduce geopolitical tensions through increased interdependence”.

Iranian ambassador claims US sets conditions on Syrian-Iranian relations

Iranian ambassador claims US sets conditions on Syrian-Iranian relations
Iran's ambassador to Lebanon has alleged that the United States has established specific conditions regarding Iran's future role in Syria / bne IntelliNews
By bnm Gulf bureau December 21, 2024

Iran's ambassador to Lebanon has alleged that the United States has established specific conditions regarding Iran's future role in Syria, following the fall of the Assad regime.

Ambassador Mojtaba Amani stated on his social media account that the United States, following its representative's meeting with interim Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, has stipulated that any new Syrian government must exclude Iran from having any role in establishing positive relations with Washington.

In his statement, Ambassador Amani drew parallels with previous US diplomatic engagements in the region, particularly citing American interactions with the Muslim Brotherhood between 2011 and 2013.

Amani, who lost his eye and fingers in Israel's pager attack on Hezbollah and has since returned to his post in the Lebanese capital, has been a key player between Tehran.

He specifically referenced similar conditions allegedly presented to former Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi.

"When they saw Morsi was isolated, the time for American betrayal arrived. What was meant to happen occurred, and fate took its course," Amani wrote, suggesting a pattern in US diplomatic approaches to regional allies.

The comments emerge against the backdrop of long-standing Iranian involvement in Syria, where Tehran removed its troops and most diplomatic staff. 

Earlier on December 21, Tehran announced the death of one of its remaining employees in Damascus, who was reportedly killed in a sniper attack. 

The US State Department has not yet responded to these claims about conditions for future Syrian-American relati