Most women want children – but half are unsure if they will

Ohio State University

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COLUMBUS, Ohio – As concern grows about America’s falling birth rate, new research suggests that about half of women who want children are unsure if they will follow through – and many won’t be that bothered if they don’t.

 

The results show that the intention to have a baby is not just a “yes” or “no” question for many women today, said Sarah Hayford, co-author of the study and professor of sociology at The Ohio State University.

 

There’s also a question of how certain they are in their goal to have a child and the intensity of that desire.

 

“People’s feelings about having children are complicated, and we found there are a lot of nuances,” said Hayford, who is also director of Ohio State’s Institute for Population Research.

 

“It suggests that there is no simple answer to the declining birth rate in the United States.”

 

The U.S fertility rate was stable at about 2.0 children per woman in the 1990s and early 2000s, reaching a peak of 2.12 in 2007, statistics show. But the fertility rate steadily declined in the aftermath of the Great Recession, falling to 1.62 in 2023.

 

The study, published recently in the journal Genus, was led by Luca Badolato, an Ohio State PhD student in sociology. Co-authors were Hayford and Karen Benjamin Guzzo, professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and director of the Carolina Population Center.

 

The researchers used data from the National Survey of Family Growth, a federally funded survey conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics, from 2002 to 2019. This included surveys of a nationally representative group of 41,492 women aged 15 to 44 about a broad range of fertility-related indicators.

 

Findings showed that there was little change during that time in the proportion of women who said they intended to have children.  On average, 62% of women said they intended to have a child and 35% did not intend to, with only a small percentage saying they didn’t know.

 

But up to 50% of the women who intended to have children said they were only “somewhat sure” or “not at all sure” that they would actually realize their intention to have a child.

 

Women who had higher levels of income and education were slightly more likely to say they were “very sure” they would have a child than those with less education and income. But even those with a bachelor’s degree who said they were “very sure” they will have more children declined from 65% in 2014 to 54% in 2018.

 

And it is not just the certainty that may be affecting the fertility rate.  The intensity of the desire mattered, too.

 

The study found that up to 25% of childless women who intended to have children also said they would not be bothered if they ended up not having a child.

 

“This not being bothered was especially high among younger women, and it increased over time among those who were younger,” Hayford said.

 

“They are open to different pathways and different kinds of lives. If they don’t become parents for whatever reason, it doesn’t seem that upsetting to many of them.”

 

One possibility often discussed for the declining birth rate is that young people today are unsure about the future of the country and the world, and that is keeping them from having children.

 

Hayford and Guzzo considered that possibility in a separate study, published recently as a chapter in the book The Retreat from Marriage and Parenthood: Examining the Causes and Consequences of Declining Rates.

 

In this study they used survey data from the American Trends Panel, which surveyed 3,696 people.

 

That study found that as people’s dissatisfaction with their own lives increased, they were less likely to think they would have a child. But concerns about the difficulty of life for today’s young people and evaluations about problems in the community were not related to their goals to have children.

 

“It was a bit of a surprise to us, but it was only their personal situation that mattered to whether they expected to have children,” Hayford said.

 

“It wasn’t so much what was going on in society that predicted their fertility goals.”

 

Overall, the studies suggest it is very difficult to predict what will happen with birth rates in the United States and other developed countries.

 

“On the one hand there is a lot of latent desire and intentions to have children. But people have a lot of uncertainty about whether they will meet those goals, and many don’t seem to worry that much if they do or don’t have children,” she said.

 

“It is hard to predict what will happen next.”

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Journal

Genus

DOI

10.1186/s41118-025-00251-6 

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Multiple dimensions of uncertainty in fertility goals: recent trends and patterns in the United States

Illuminating gaps in perinatal palliative care evidence amidst abortion restrictions

University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing

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PHILADELPHIA (June 18, 2025) – A new review published in Health Affairs Scholar highlights significant limitations in the existing evidence base for perinatal palliative care (PPC) in the United States, raising concerns about its capacity to adequately support a growing, vulnerable patient population increasingly directed towards it due to abortion restrictions.

The review, titled "Dobbs-driven expansion of perinatal palliative care: a scoping review of the evidence and its limits," was conducted by a team of researchers led by Abigail B. Wilpers, PhD, WHNP-BC, Assistant Professor, in Penn Nursing’s Department of Family and Community Health. PPC is an interdisciplinary approach that provides comprehensive support from prenatal diagnosis through labor, birth, neonatal care, and end-of-life support for families facing pregnancies complicated by life-limiting fetal conditions (LLFCs). This care integrates medical management with psychosocial and bereavement support, aiming to facilitate values-driven decision-making for families.

"Our review reveals a significant and concerning gap in the evidence for PPC in the United States, especially at a time when more families are being directed to this care due to abortion restrictions," said Wilpers. "We urgently need robust, U.S.-based research to truly understand if PPC can effectively and equitably meet the needs of all vulnerable patients, ensuring their safety, comfort, and well-being in an increasingly complex landscape of reproductive health.

Key Findings and Identified Gaps:

• Understudied Area: The review of 13 U.S.-based studies found that PPC programs are largely understudied, with limited evidence on crucial outcomes such as maternal health and neonatal comfort.
• Limited Data on Uptake and Diversity: Studies lacked comprehensive data on PPC use rates for all eligible individuals, hindering a full assessment of overall uptake. Furthermore, existing studies showed a lack of diversity in their samples, making it difficult to determine if PPC adequately serves diverse populations.
• Patient Satisfaction vs. Policy Impact: While most PPC patients reported high satisfaction, often citing compassionate care, emotional support, and parental validation, none of the reviewed studies examined the specific experience of receiving PPC due to abortion restrictions.
• Insufficient Evidence for Policy Shifts: The review concludes that the current evidence is insufficient to determine whether PPC can adequately support the escalating number of patients now being directed to this care by policy rather than personal choice.

The authors underscore that existing PPC evidence is limited, leaving critical gaps in understanding its safety, effectiveness, acceptability, and equity—factors essential for assessing if PPC meets its intended goals and serves diverse populations. This comprehensive review serves as a crucial call to action for more rigorous research to inform policy and ensure appropriate care for vulnerable families.

# # #

About the University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing

The University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing (Penn Nursing) is one of the world’s leading nursing schools. It has been ranked the #1 nursing school in the U.S. by QS University for a decade. Our Bachelor of Science in Nursing (BSN) is among the top-ranked programs in the nation, according to the 2025 U.S. News & World Report’s Best Colleges rankings. Penn Nursing also consistently earns high rankings in U.S. News & World Report’s annual list of best graduate schools and is a top recipient of National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding for nursing research. Penn Nursing prepares nurse scientists and nurse leaders to meet the health needs of a global society through innovation in research, education, and practice. Follow Penn Nursing on: Facebook, X, LinkedIn, YouTube, & Instagram.

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Journal

Health Affairs Scholar

DOI

10.1093/haschl/qxaf081 

Article Title

Dobbs-driven expansion of perinatal palliative care: a scoping review of the evidence and its limits

 

‘Returnless returns’ boost brands among consumers

University of Notre Dame

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Studies show consumers return 1 in 5 online purchases.

This presents a challenge for retailers because the revenue generated from reselling a returned product often does not cover the costs associated with processing the return.

As a result, many leading retailers no longer require customers to return a recently purchased and unwanted product in order to get a refund — they often tell customers to “just keep it,” meaning they get both the refund and the item.

This “returnless returns” strategy has become a common practice. In a 2023 survey of more than 500 retail executives, 59 percent used returnless returns compared with only 26 percent the year before.

And cost cutting is not the only benefit for these retailers, according to new research from the University of Notre Dame.

Returnless returns can increase brand support by fostering goodwill, according to John Costello and Christopher Bechler, assistant professors of marketing at Notre Dame’s Mendoza College of Business. Their study, “Just Keep It: When and Why Returnless Product Returns Foster Brand Support,” is forthcoming in the Journal of Marketing Research.

They conducted nine lab, field and online studies that showed consumers who are offered returnless returns are more likely to patronize the brand and share positive feedback compared with others doing standard product returns.

They found this to be true when several factors are in place.

“Specifically, returnless returns increase brand support when proof of the problem with a product is not required, the decision is framed as specific to that consumer and situation, the brand provides a consumer or environmentally centric motive for the decision and the brand suggests donating the kept product,” Costello said.

This contrasts with narratives in the popular press and with data from the team’s pilot study with retail professionals, which both point to cost as the primary reason firms decide to implement returnless returns.

“Surprisingly, we also find that increased brand support generated through returnless returns can sometimes be greater than the support generated when a consumer appears to be happy with a product and does not initiate a return,” Bechler said.

The study explores both situations where consumers get to keep the "returned" product plus get their money refunded, as well as situations where they get to keep the "returned" item and get a replacement item. The effects hold for both of these situations.

Some brands, including Chewy and Bombas, offer a blanket returnless policy for all customers and situations, while others, like Amazon and Walmart, use a case-by-case basis.

While blanket returnless policies may appear more likely to boost brand support because consumers may feel they could be excluded by brands with selective use, the study shows the opposite is true.

“Drawing from our theory that offering returnless product returns boosts brand support because they increase brand warmth, we find that returnless policies implemented on a case-by-case basis are actually more effective for a couple of reasons,” Costello said. “The consumer feels they are getting special treatment. Also, because they are getting human interaction rather than an automatic email, the customer feels additional warmth toward the brand. So, increasing the level of ‘humanness’ in digital interactions has proven beneficial.”

Brands can choose to not provide a reason for why they are using returnless returns, or they could point to managing costs or minimizing environmental harms. However, in the interest of improving brand support, the study provides managers with practical guidance about how to communicate with consumers during returnless returns.

Suggesting that customers donate the kept product boosts perceived brand warmth and support, as does providing reasons that articulate the brand’s desire to put the customer first in their product return processes.

Bechler explained, “The customer-centric message we used in one of our studies was, ‘When managing returns, our primary goal as a company is to make our customers’ lives better. With this in mind, there is no need to return the items in question to receive your refund. We appreciate your business and want to make this process as seamless and positive as possible for you, so please do whatever you want with these items.’”

The findings offer important insights for firms that are designing or updating their product return policies and would like to improve how they are viewed by customers who seek to return purchases.

Contact: John Costello, 574-631-5171, jcostel4@nd.edu; Christopher Bechler, 574-631-1202, cbechler@nd.edu

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Journal

Journal of Marketing Research

Article Title

Just Keep It: When and Why Returnless Product Returns Foster Brand Support

 

Should government incentivize EV adoption through consumer tax credits or infrastructure?

New study finds building charging networks is more effective

Carnegie Mellon University

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In the United States, tax incentives and infrastructure investments play a role in speeding the adoption of electric vehicles (EV). In a new study, researchers examined the effects of competing government incentives on EV adoption in Washington State by building a structural dynamic discrete demand model. In terms of expanding the EV market, the study found that building an EV charging network is more effective than awarding a tax rebate.

The study, published in Marketing Science, was conducted by Cheng Chou, an independent researcher, and Tim Derdenger, Associate Professor of Marketing and Strategy at Carnegie Mellon’s Tepper School of Business. The paper, “CCP Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Demand Models with Segment Level Data and Continuous Unobserved Heterogeneity: Rethinking EV Subsidies vs. Infrastructure,” uses data from Washington state between 2016 and 2019 to analyze consumer decisions around buying an EV or staying with a gasoline-powered car. Their findings upend the debate over EV incentives, suggesting that the key to widespread adoption may lie not in bigger tax credits but in better infrastructure.

Derdenger explains, “The main contribution of our study is our development of a new approach that uses segment-level data to model, identify, and estimate a dynamic discrete choice demand model without replacement for durable goods with dynamic selection, continuous unobserved consumer heterogeneity, and continuous unobserved product characteristics.” 

Currently, the U.S. government offers a tax credit for EV buyers based on battery size. Chou and Derdenger’s research shows that tying the credit to a vehicle’s electric range (how far it can go on a single charge) would do more to boost sales and cut emissions without raising costs. By linking credits to range, their model predicts an increase in EV numbers by roughly 1.5 percent in the three largest counties in Washington state alone while, compared to the existing policy, reducing emissions by 11 percent.

The study finds that investing in charging infrastructure could outshine subsidies altogether. Removing tax credits and redirecting funds to build a network of Level 3 fast-charging stations could increase EV adoption by almost 26 percent, reducing emissions 51 percent.

When multiple groups of consumers exist in the same market, researchers can consider each group’s conditional choice probabilities (CCP) as a function of unobserved consumer heterogeneity and specify choice probabilities of one group as a function of another by shifting the unobserved component. Using this new CCP estimator, researchers estimated consumer demand for EVs in three counties in the state of Washington using aggregate consumer segment sales data between 2016 and 2019.

“Our estimation method has broader application than the study of EV adoption,” notes Chou, who coauthored the study. “Our method can be used in markets with many different products.”

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Journal

Marketing Science

DOI

10.1287/mksc.2024.0860 

Article Title

CCP Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Demand Models with Segment Level Data and Continuous Unobserved Heterogeneity: Rethinking EV Subsidies vs. Infrastructure

 

A statement on the U.S. Supreme Court decision

The Endocrine Society

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As experts dedicated to providing patients with compassionate, evidence-based care every day, we are disappointed in the United States vs. Skrmetti decision, which increases the likelihood that other states will limit or eliminate families’ and patients’ ability to access medical care.

As doctors, nurse practitioners, and nurses, we believe that every patient is different. Decisions about medical care must be based on individualized assessments by qualified professionals in consultation with the patient and their parents or legal guardians and guided by well-designed medical evidence. This Supreme Court decision strips patients and families of the choice to direct their own health care.

Every patient should have access to the medical care they need. Health care professionals must be able to rely on their training, education, and expertise to provide appropriate care based on the needs and values of each patient and their family, without bans or interference.

The undersigned organizations are part of a group of professional medical and mental health organizations that submitted an amicus brief in the United States vs. Skrmetti case.

American Academy of Pediatrics
American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists
American College of Physicians
American Pediatric Society
American Psychiatric Association
Endocrine Society
National Association of Pediatric Nurse Practitioners

STATEHOOD OR INDEPENDENCE

Helping Puerto Rico's energy system weather the storm

Princeton University, Engineering School

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When Hurricane Fiona struck Puerto Rico in 2022, it exposed the vulnerabilities of the island’s energy infrastructure. Though only a Category 1 storm, Fiona caused a total blackout across the island, leaving residents without power for days to weeks with far-reaching health, safety, and economic consequences.

Yet in the aftermath, the hurricane also provided a rare opportunity to learn about a power system during an extreme weather event. LUMA Energy, the private power company that since 2021 has been responsible for power distribution and power transmission in Puerto Rico, collected high-resolution outage data in 10-minute intervals as Fiona made landfall on the island.

A team of Princeton engineers is now using that information about Puerto Rico’s energy grid during Hurricane Fiona to help LUMA Energy and other system operators better understand their power grids in the face of increasingly frequent and severe climate extremes, from hurricanes to heat waves.

Supported in part by a grant from the Andlinger Center’s Fund for Energy Research with Corporate Partners, the Princeton-led team has, in a series of papers, developed models to quantify the risk of catastrophic blackouts — like the one during Hurricane Fiona — and better forecast how climate extremes will impact energy systems. Beyond today’s challenges, the models also reveal the impacts of climate extremes on a future energy system with high levels of renewable energy.

The work could inform grid upgrades to improve its resilience to the extreme weather events that will become more frequent and severe, partially due to climate change. At the same time, the team’s models could help LUMA Energy and other system operators navigate their clean energy targets while maintaining system reliability.

“Part of the motivation for the clean energy transition is to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, including a rise in more frequent and severe extreme weather events,” said research leader Ning Lin, a professor of civil and environmental engineering. “However, renewables like solar and wind are more exposed to the environment than fossil fuel power sources, making them potentially more vulnerable to those climate extremes. Large-scale integration of renewables thus may induce grid instability. Our work aims to help energy systems navigate the risks of climate extremes while also achieving their clean energy targets.”

CRESCENT: Unpacking the risks of climate extremes to energy systems

Just what happened during Hurricane Fiona?

Outage data reveals that just before the hurricane’s landfall, Puerto Rico’s grid went from over 50% operational to a total blackout in under 10 minutes. This sudden drop points to an event known as a cascading power failure, in which an outage in one grid component causes a chain reaction that leads the entire system to collapse.

In one paper, published March 16 in Nature Communications, the Princeton team developed a model to quantify the risk of such cascading power outages to Puerto Rico’s energy system in the face of hurricanes and other climate extremes. Known as CRESCENT (Climate-induced Renewable Energy System Cascading Event), the physics-based model combines information about climate hazards with grid vulnerability data to predict the likelihood of a catastrophic blackout.

Using CRESCENT, the researchers simulated 1000 outcomes that could have resulted from a storm with characteristics like Hurricane Fiona. Through the simulations, they identified patterns in how the hurricane impacted the grid, which could help operators identify critical infrastructure and develop strategies for avoiding blackouts.

In doing so, the team uncovered an interesting and unexpected trend: if the transmission lines from Costa Sur, the largest power plant in Puerto Rico, failed early on during the hurricane, the island’s grid was subsequently more resilient to a total blackout than when they failed later in the storm.

“You might think that you would want the most critical power lines to last as long as possible during a hurricane, but we found that if they were going to fail, the system was actually more resilient to subsequent damage when they failed near the beginning,” said first author Luo Xu, an associate research scholar of civil and environmental engineering at Princeton.

Xu explained that having critical components fail early on served to passively de-energize the grid, similar to how grid operators in Texas implemented rolling blackouts to prevent total grid collapse during Winter Storm Uri in 2021. This de-energization allowed the grid to better distribute power imbalances to other, smaller grid components at a time when fewer had been damaged by the storm.

Conversely, as Hurricane Fiona progressed and caused more damage to the grid, the failure of the critical transmission lines sparked imbalances too great for the rest of the grid to withstand, triggering a cascading power failure.

The researchers said information from CRESCENT can support both short-term and long-term grid planning in Puerto Rico.

In the short term, grid operators could use the model to improve the system’s resilience to an incoming hurricane by identifying the grid components most likely to be the source of a cascading power failure.

“With our simulations, we identified certain patterns in which the system was most resilient to a catastrophic blackout,” Xu said. “In this way, our model can help grid operators mitigate the risk of a worst-case scenario.”

At a longer timescale, the model can inform Puerto Rico’s efforts to fully decarbonize its energy system by 2050 as it explicitly considers the vulnerability of renewable energy systems to climate extremes.

For instance, the model found that selectively adding grid-forming energy storage alongside renewables can significantly reduce the risk of a system-wide blackout. Energy storage becomes particularly important as the penetration of behind-the-meter renewables, such as rooftop solar, increases above 45% — a threshold estimated by the study, above which the risk of a system-wide blackout becomes increasingly likely.

“Intermittent renewables like solar and wind lack the inertia that is usually provided by a spinning turbine under traditional power generation,” said co-author H. Vincent Poor, the Michael Henry Strater University Professor of Electrical Engineering. “Renewables-dominated systems thus require accompanying large-scale storage capabilities or other stabilizing mechanisms to ride through extreme weather events.” 

REDUCER: Planning day-ahead grid operations for climate extremes

To effectively manage the power grid, operators need to predict how much energy will be needed at every hour of the day, on every day of the year.

Under normal circumstances, this estimation is relatively straightforward. A day in advance, operators use information from weather forecasts, historical patterns, and expected consumer behavior to decide how many and which generators to run during each hour of the following day to ensure that energy demand and supply are closely matched.

In the face of hurricanes and other climate extremes, however, energy demand forecasts and grid operation strategies can be wildly inaccurate, often leading to service interruptions or the use of expensive emergency generators.

In another paper, published May 14 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the Princeton team developed a model to help grid operators better plan their next-day energy supply in advance of climate extremes like hurricanes.

Known as REDUCER (Risk-aware Electricity Dispatch Under Climate Extremes with Renewable integration), the model outperformed existing approaches at capturing potential energy demand losses during climate extremes and managing the associated risks. When applied to Puerto Rico’s power grid before Hurricane Fiona, for instance, it reduced operational costs by 20% compared to leading day-ahead operation strategies and avoided relying on nearly a gigawatt of flexible energy dispatch.

“This prevents the disaster’s impacts from compounding by allowing grid operators and consumers to focus on other recovery issues,” said Poor. “It also translates into a more reliable energy supply overall, and, ultimately, a lower cost of electricity.”

REDUCER outcompeted similar models during Hurricane Fiona because it incorporated risks to the energy system’s extensive distribution networks alongside its transmission network.

If an electric grid were like a road system, the transmission network would be the major interstates that carry vehicles at high speeds over long distances, while the distribution network would be the slower-moving local roads that bring cars to homes and businesses.

However, most day-ahead operation models only capture risks to the transmission network because the sprawling distribution network, which includes rooftop solar, contains so many uncertainties that it is too computationally intensive to incorporate.

“Generally, there’s been no way for operators to incorporate that level of uncertainty into existing models for next-day hourly operations,” said Xu, who is also first author on this paper. “It’s just too computationally intensive to get a quick enough answer.”

By factoring in risks to the distribution network, REDUCER matched energy supply and demand better than existing models — requiring less dispatch of emergency energy sources — while employing advanced optimization techniques to return results over 10 times faster than state-of-the-art open-source and commercial solvers.

“REDUCER could be solved in under 20 minutes for Puerto Rico, while the commercial solver took between one to three hours, even for a small grid like Puerto Rico,” said Xu. “It would be basically impossible to extend that model to a larger, more complex grid.”

The Princeton team’s model especially shined when considering an energy system with high levels of rooftop solar, a key piece of Puerto Rico’s energy transition strategy. While REDUCER became more cost-effective in simulations with higher levels of rooftop solar, conventional day-ahead operation models were up to twice as expensive in high-renewables scenarios compared to the low-renewables baseline scenario.

“As climate extremes intensify and renewable energy adoption grows, tools like REDUCER are going to become increasingly important for informing real-time decision-making during extreme events to avoid large-scale impacts,” said Lin.

Planning for a future of climate extremes

Lin and Xu said that CRESCENT and REDUCER address challenges that grid operators will continue to face as climate change increases the frequency and severity of extreme weather events.

And while the team used Puerto Rico’s grid during Hurricane Fiona as a test case for their models, the researchers emphasized that the models could be tailored to a variety of grid configurations and climate extremes.

“Climate change is happening everywhere, not just Puerto Rico,” said Lin. She pointed to a 2024 perspective in Nature Reviews Electrical Engineering highlighting that from 2011 to 2021, the United States alone saw a 78% increase in weather-related power outages compared to the preceding decade. “We hope that our work can help energy systems everywhere to adapt to the risks posed by climate extremes, whether they be hurricanes or other hazards.”

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The paper, “Quantifying cascading power outages during climate extremes considering renewable energy integration,” was published March 16 in Nature Communications. In addition to Xu and Lin, co-authors include H. Vincent Poor, Dazhi Xi, and A.T.D. Perera of Princeton University. The research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation as part of the Megalopolitan Coastal Transformation Hub, the Princeton University Metropolis Project, the C3.ai Digital Transformation Institute, and the Andlinger Center’s Fund for Energy Research with Corporate Partners.

The paper, “Risk-aware electricity dispatch with large-scale distributed renewable integration under climate extremes,” was published May 14 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. In addition to Xu and Lin, co-authors include Hongtai Zeng and Qinglai Guo of Tsinghua University, Yue Yang of Hefei University of Technology, and H. Vincent Poor of Princeton University. The research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation as part of the Megalopolitan Coastal Transformation Hub, the Princeton University Metropolis Project, and the Andlinger Center’s Fund for Energy Research with Corporate Partners.

The perspective, “Resilience of renewable power systems under climate risks,” was published January 11, 2024 in Nature Reviews Electrical Engineering. In addition to Xu and Lin, co-authors include Kairui Feng, A.T.D. Perera, and H. Vincent Poor of Princeton University; Le Xie of Texas A&M University; Chuanyi Ji of Georgia Institute of Technology; X. Andy Sun of Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Qinglai Guo of Tsinghua University, and Mark O’Malley of Imperial College London. The work was supported by the National Science Foundation and the Princeton University Innovation Fund.

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Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI

10.1073/pnas.2426620122 

Method of Research

Computational simulation/modeling

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Risk-aware electricity dispatch with large-scale distributed renewable integration under climate extremes