Saturday, July 19, 2025


Is Black America the Leading Edge of a Coming Trump Recession?

July 18, 2025

There is a saying that Black people are the last hired and the first fired. The current labor market may be supporting that picture.

In June, the Black unemployment rate spiked while other rates declined slightly (Figure 1). Since the monthly Black unemployment rate is noisy, it would be easy to dismiss this spike were it not for other possible warning signs of a weakening labor market. The June jobs report showed wage growth slowing and workweeks shortening. Both things suggest a possible economic slowdown.

Figure 1. Black Unemployment Jumps in June

Adding to the worry for Black America is the trend in the Black employment-to-population ratio, or employment rate. Figure 2 shows quarterly employment rates from 2021 to the second quarter of 2025. (The quarterly Black rates are less volatile than the monthly rates.) They show what looks like a downward trend beginning in 2024. If this is correct, it means that Black America is being first hit by a coming recession.

Figure 2. Black Employment is Now Trending Downward

While it would not be correct to blame Trump for a downward trend starting in 2024, he hasn’t done anything to strengthen economic conditions — and in fact he has worsened them greatly. Trump’s spasmodic tariff policies will in time raise costs to consumers, a major factor in the US economy. These policies also create uncertainty for businesses, causing them to delay or cancel hiring plans. Trump’s hostility to foreign governments and his draconian immigration policies have dealt a major blow to the tourism industry. The immigration policies also disrupt businesses reliant on immigrant labor and likely reduce spending by immigrant consumers. His administration’s cuts to government spending and staffing also creates unemployment. If the US falls into a recession in the coming months, Trump will be responsible.

Trump’s One Big Beautiful Billionaire Bill Act also will likely make a recession much worse for the American people. It severely worsens the US debt situation. The level of US debt will certainly make Congress even more resistant than normal to deficit spending to counteract a recession. The safety net cuts in the Bill for Billionaires will also mean that there are fewer government resources to help families experiencing job losses. The Billionaire Bill will cause more middle- and low-income Americans to suffer more and longer in the event of a downturn.

This first appeared on CEPR.

Algernon Austin, a senior research fellow at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, has conducted research and writing on issues of race and racial inequality for over 20 years. His primary focus has been on the intersection of race and the economy. 




The Rich Are Not Rich Enough in America



JULY 18, 2025
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From the get-go, the Trump Administration – via DOGE – has been hell bent on causing destruction and havoc across the federal government. But why? There seems to be no cohesive narrative coming from the Trump administration regarding DOGE, the erosion of civil rights, attacks on immigrants, or the debt-exploding One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB) that recently became law.

What is this historic chaos really about? If you’ve just arrived and are observing what’s happening in the United States, you might think that our most pressing issue is that the richest among us simply aren’t rich enough – as the Trump administration and the OBBB cuts public services and benefits that will make life more precarious for millions in the name of tax breaks for the rich.

While they play out their destructive tendencies predicated on non-existent problems like DEI or in service to imagined government waste, the real goal is to have a YOYO – you’re on your own – economic system for the masses in order to transfer more income to those without need.

One of the most striking statistics on inequality is the historical trend in the share of national income received by the Top 1 Percent. Figure 1 shows that at the end of the “Roaring Twenties,” just before the Great Depression, the Top 1 Percent held about 20 percent of all income (excluding capital gains) – about where it was in 2022 (most recent data available).

From the get-go, the Trump Administration – via DOGE – has been hell bent on causing destruction and havoc across the federal government. But why? There seems to be no cohesive narrative coming from the Trump administration regarding DOGE, the erosion of civil rights, attacks on immigrants, or the debt-exploding One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB) that recently became law.

What is this historic chaos really about? If you’ve just arrived and are observing what’s happening in the United States, you might think that our most pressing issue is that the richest among us simply aren’t rich enough – as the Trump administration and the OBBB cuts public services and benefits that will make life more precarious for millions in the name of tax breaks for the rich.

While they play out their destructive tendencies predicated on non-existent problems like DEI or in service to imagined government waste, the real goal is to have a YOYO – you’re on your own – economic system for the masses in order to transfer more income to those without need.

One of the most striking statistics on inequality is the historical trend in the share of national income received by the Top 1 Percent. Figure 1 shows that at the end of the “Roaring Twenties,” just before the Great Depression, the Top 1 Percent held about 20 percent of all income (excluding capital gains) – about where it was in 2022 (most recent data available).

Importantly, the long trend in between is U-shaped – for the decades between the 1930s and the 1970s, inequality was falling or flat before starting to climb steeply beginning in the 1980s. The trough in inequality occurred in the early 1970s when the share of income controlled by the Top 1 Percent was just under 8 percent – which left more for the rest of us.

Over the period (1933-1973) when the Top 1 Percent held decreasing shares of national income, inflation-adjusted income grew fivefold for those in the Bottom 90 Percent – a historic increase depicted in Figure 2. The rich still got richer too, as the Top 1 Percent doubled their income over the same timeframe.

From 1973 through 2022, the share of national income held by the Top 1 Percent grew from just under 8 percent to nearly 20 percent. By the end of that period, the Top 1 Percent had seen a 222 percent increase in income, while those in the Bottom 90 Percent suffered a 6 percent decrease. Even more telling is that the income for the Top 0.01 Percent increased 850 percent over the same period!

The jumpy but mostly flat post-1973 trend in income growth for the Bottom 90 Percent shown in Figure 2 occurred even as the economy grew by 255 percent and worker productivity increased by 82 percent – indicating that the additional benefits of a growing economy along with increased efficiency elude most of the workers who produce it as it accrues to those at the top.

What brought about this U-shaped trend in inequality? The distribution of national income is not an accident. It is significantly dictated by purposeful policies – like those in the One Big Beautiful Bill, which will accomplish exactly what it set out to do.

It was an impressive array of post-Great Depression and WWII policies that enabled Americans to prosper, and a growing middle class to emerge. Policies such as the Glass-Steagall Banking Reform Act (1933), the Unemployment Insurance Program and Social Security Act (1935), the Fair Labor Standards Act and the first minimum wage (1938), Eisenhower’s 91 percent top marginal tax rate (1951), and the Medicare and Medicaid Act (1965) to name just a few.

But the unwinding of the roaring-1920s level of inequality ceased and reversed course by the early-1980s. The U-turn was led by President Reagan’s supply-side economic policies that favored unfettered markets, deregulation, attacks on unions, and defunding of the public sector. The top marginal income tax rate was lowered from 70 percent in 1980 to 28 percent in 1988, banks were deregulated and most of Glass-Steagall was repealed by 1999. And, of course, President Reagan broke the air traffic controllers strike in 1981. Then came NAFTA, more tax cuts, and Citizens United, to name a few policies that keep the upward trend going today.

These and many other policies influenced the historical divvying up of national income. Recent pandemic policies provide a stark example. At the beginning of the pandemic, in the face of a national emergency for families, the child tax credit was expanded along with other economic policies that quickly cut the supplemental poverty rate (which includes government payments and transfers) of children from a pre-pandemic 12.6 percent in 2019 to 5.2 percent in 2021 – an unprecedented decline. But the rate shot back to 12.4 percent in 2022 after the temporary policies phased out. In a country as wealthy as the United States we could choose to eradicate childhood poverty, but we don’t.

Far too many Americans wake up every day on the wrong side of our chosen capitalist system that circumvents our democracy and our ability to wholly thrive as a nation. We can’t have things needed, or nice – even with majority consensus – when the richest amongst us perpetually control ever more of our nation’s income, wealth and political power.

A country awash in resources and wealth, such as ours, should expand and implement new policies that enhance the greater good for the vast majority of us; policies that ensure broadly-based prosperity that begin again to lessen our obscene levels of inequality. The goal of the plutocrats, it seems, is to remove whatever daylight exists between their desires and a government of the people, by the people, for the people. The result may be the undoing of the great American middle class.

Importantly, the long trend in between is U-shaped – for the decades between the 1930s and the 1970s, inequality was falling or flat before starting to climb steeply beginning in the 1980s. The trough in inequality occurred in the early 1970s when the share of income controlled by the Top 1 Percent was just under 8 percent – which left more for the rest of us.

Over the period (1933-1973) when the Top 1 Percent held decreasing shares of national income, inflation-adjusted income grew fivefold for those in the Bottom 90 Percent – a historic increase depicted in Figure 2. The rich still got richer too, as the Top 1 Percent doubled their income over the same timeframe.

From 1973 through 2022, the share of national income held by the Top 1 Percent grew from just under 8 percent to nearly 20 percent. By the end of that period, the Top 1 Percent had seen a 222 percent increase in income, while those in the Bottom 90 Percent suffered a 6 percent decrease. Even more telling is that the income for the Top 0.01 Percent increased 850 percent over the same period!

The jumpy but mostly flat post-1973 trend in income growth for the Bottom 90 Percent shown in Figure 2 occurred even as the economy grew by 255 percent and worker productivity increased by 82 percent – indicating that the additional benefits of a growing economy along with increased efficiency elude most of the workers who produce it as it accrues to those at the top.

What brought about this U-shaped trend in inequality? The distribution of national income is not an accident. It is significantly dictated by purposeful policies – like those in the One Big Beautiful Bill, which will accomplish exactly what it set out to do.

It was an impressive array of post-Great Depression and WWII policies that enabled Americans to prosper, and a growing middle class to emerge. Policies such as the Glass-Steagall Banking Reform Act (1933), the Unemployment Insurance Program and Social Security Act (1935), the Fair Labor Standards Act and the first minimum wage (1938), Eisenhower’s 91 percent top marginal tax rate (1951), and the Medicare and Medicaid Act (1965) to name just a few.

But the unwinding of the roaring-1920s level of inequality ceased and reversed course by the early-1980s. The U-turn was led by President Reagan’s supply-side economic policies that favored unfettered markets, deregulation, attacks on unions, and defunding of the public sector. The top marginal income tax rate was lowered from 70 percent in 1980 to 28 percent in 1988, banks were deregulated and most of Glass-Steagall was repealed by 1999. And, of course, President Reagan broke the air traffic controllers strike in 1981. Then came NAFTA, more tax cuts, and Citizens United, to name a few policies that keep the upward trend going today.

These and many other policies influenced the historical divvying up of national income. Recent pandemic policies provide a stark example. At the beginning of the pandemic, in the face of a national emergency for families, the child tax credit was expanded along with other economic policies that quickly cut the supplemental poverty rate (which includes government payments and transfers) of children from a pre-pandemic 12.6 percent in 2019 to 5.2 percent in 2021 – an unprecedented decline. But the rate shot back to 12.4 percent in 2022 after the temporary policies phased out. In a country as wealthy as the United States we could choose to eradicate childhood poverty, but we don’t.

Far too many Americans wake up every day on the wrong side of our chosen capitalist system that circumvents our democracy and our ability to wholly thrive as a nation. We can’t have things needed, or nice – even with majority consensus – when the richest amongst us perpetually control ever more of our nation’s income, wealth and political power.

A country awash in resources and wealth, such as ours, should expand and implement new policies that enhance the greater good for the vast majority of us; policies that ensure broadly-based prosperity that begin again to lessen our obscene levels of inequality. The goal of the plutocrats, it seems, is to remove whatever daylight exists between their desires and a government of the people, by the people, for the people. The result may be the undoing of the great American middle class.

This first appeared on CEPR.

Friday, July 18, 2025

What’s at Stake: Organizing for Climate Armageddon


 July 18, 2025

We are in the midst of a climate upheaval. The world is burning, and we must act. This panel will discuss what is at stake and how our side can respond to the crisis. The discussion will address Indigenous sovereignty, climate refugees, and public power and will explain why just ending fossil fuels alone is insufficient for a better world.

Silky Shah is the executive director of Detention Watch Network, a national coalition building power to abolish immigration detention in the U.S. She is also the author of the recently published book, Unbuild Walls: Why Immigrant Justice Needs Abolition (Haymarket Books, 2024). She has worked as an organizer on issues related to immigration detention, the prison-industrial complex, and racial and migrant justice for over 20 years. Janene Yazzie is an enrolled member of the Navajo Nation. She has over 12 years of experience as a community organizer and human rights advocate deeply rooted in local community issues. Beginning from her community Tsé si’ áni, in Diné Bikéyah, she has worked on the intersections of climate change, water security, food security, energy development, and nation building with indigenous communities and indigenous-led organizations in the US, Canada and Latin America. Ashley Dawson is a Professor of English at the Graduate Center / City University of New York and the College of Staten Island. He is the author of several books on key topics in the environmental humanities, including People’s Power: Reclaiming the Energy Commons, Extreme Cities: The Peril and Promise of Urban Life in the Age of Climate Change, and Extinction: A Radical History. A member of the Public Power NY campaign and the founder of the CUNY Climate Action Lab, he is a long-time climate justice activist. Joshua Frank is co-editor of CounterPunch and co-host of CounterPunch Radio. His latest book is Atomic Days: The Untold Story of the Most Toxic Place in America, published by Haymarket Books. He can be reached at joshua@counterpunch.org. You can troll him on Bluesky @joshuafrank.bsky.social