Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Why Scientists Are Still Puzzled By Consciousness – Analysis


LONG READ

February 11, 2026 
By Leslie Alan Horvitz

Despite several theories proposed by scientists and philosophers, there are no conclusive answers.

Consciousness, at its basic level, is an individual’s self-awareness, comprising both external and internal phenomena; it may constitute any kind of cognition, experience, feeling, or perception. Awareness can be a continuously changing continuum, or it may shut down or be disrupted temporarily. During sleep, for instance, we are not aware of our environment, yet it can be argued that we remain conscious.

Altered levels of consciousness can also occur due to medical or mental conditions—such as coma, delirium, disorientation, and stupor—that impair, change, or obliterate awareness. But what about consciousness in other species? Are dogs, fish, shrimp, or bees conscious? They have senses and perceptions, but do they possess the same kind of awareness as humans?

The problem with discussing consciousness is that it means different things to different people. Some researchers focus on subjective experiences (what you feel), while others focus on functionality, or on how cognitive processes and behaviors are influenced by consciousness. “Until about 30 years ago, it was taboo to study consciousness, and for good reasons,” said Lenore Blum, a theoretical computer scientist at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, in a 2024 Nature article. According to her, there was a lack of “good techniques to study consciousness in a non-invasive way” back then.

That changed around 1990, with the emergence of new technologies, such as functional magnetic resonance imaging, which allowed researchers to study the brain non-invasively.



The words “conscious” and “consciousness” are terms that cover a wide variety of mental phenomena. They are used to convey various meanings, and the adjective “conscious” is applied to both whole organisms—creature consciousness—and particular mental states and processes—state consciousness.

The self-awareness requirement can be interpreted in many ways. If we consider explicit conceptual self-awareness, many nonhuman animals and even young humans may fail to qualify. Thomas Nagel, an American philosopher, proposed a criterion for describing the subjective experience of consciousness, summarized in his famous dictum “what it is like…,” that is, how does a creature (animal, child, or adult human) experience the world? According to Nagel, bats are conscious because they experience their world through echolocation, although human consciousness is very different from that of a bat. Nagel said that “the fact that an organism has conscious experience at all means, basically, that there is something it is like to be that organism.”

In the English language, the words “conscious” and “consciousness” date to the 17th century. The first use of consciousness as an adjective was figurative, applied to inanimate objects, such as the “conscious Groves” in 1643.  The word is derived from the Latin conscius, which means “knowing with” or “having joint or common knowledge with another.” In Leviathan(1651), Thomas Hobbes wrote: “Where two, or more men, know of one and the same fact, they are said to be Conscious of it one to another.”

Not surprisingly, consciousness is a subject of considerable debate. Is it a phenomenon limited to and produced exclusively by the mind? Does it imply an inner life, a world of introspection, private thought, imagination, and volition? Is consciousness related to a sense of selfhood, a mental state, or a mental process?

Wakefulness is a prerequisite of consciousness, but does this mean that we are conscious only when we are awake and alert? Are we closer to consciousness when we are in a fugue state or when we are close to waking up? And where does hypnosis fit into the picture? The boundaries are blurry.

Some scientists argue that an explanation for consciousness is fairly straightforward. In a 2018 paper published in Frontiers in Psychology, Boris Kotchoubey, professor of Medical Psychology at the University of Tübingen, Germany, maintained that “[c]onsciousness is not a process in the brain but a kind of behavior that, of course, is controlled by the brain like any other behavior.”

He believed that the “[h]uman consciousness emerges on the interface between three components of animal behavior: communication, play, and the use of tools.” Although these three components are found in other mammals, birds, and even cephalopods, their interaction is unique to humans owing to their capacity for communication and language.

One of the problems with the study of consciousness is the lack of a universally accepted operational definition. Scientist René Descartes famously proposed the idea of cogito ergo sum (“I think, therefore I am”), which effectively equates consciousness with the act of thinking.
The Features of Consciousness

Self-consciousness may be a characteristic common to conscious organisms, meaning that they are not only aware but also cognizant of the fact that they are aware.

In a paper published in 2000, Peter T. Walling from the Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Management, Baylor University Medical Center, listed seven features of human consciousness:

– “Consciousness involves short-term memory.

– Consciousness may occur independently of sensory inputs.

– Consciousness displays steerable attention.

– Consciousness has the capacity for alternative interpretations of complex or ambiguous data.

– Consciousness disappears in deep sleep.

– Consciousness reappears in dreaming, at least in muted or disjointed form.

– Consciousness harbors the contents of several basic sensory modalities within a single unified experience.”

Kendra Cherry, a psychosocial rehabilitation specialist, proposes “two normal states of awareness“: consciousness and unconsciousness. The higher states of consciousness are linked with mystical experiences, such as transcendence, meditative states, lucid dreaming, the consumption of psychoactive drugs, and even the high that marathon runners experience.

The neuroscientist Antonio Damasio argues that consciousness is not possible without feelings. Physical responses (for example, fear, horror, thirst, and hunger) to external stimuli involving the regulation of life processes are one thing, but what he terms “core consciousness” requires “autobiographical memory,” which “emerges from emotions and feelings.” To explain the distinction, he offers an example: “During the action program of fear, a collection of things happen in my body that change me and make me behave in a certain way, whether I want to or not. As that is happening to me, I have a mental representation of that body state as much as I have a mental representation of what frightened me,” he told MIT Technology Review.

For Anil Seth, another prominent neuroscientist, consciousness is a “controlled hallucination” because we never experience objective reality, whether externally in the world or within our minds. The brain receives signals from both the external environment and our own mental processes, enabling us to make predictions based on prior experiences.
The Five Levels of Consciousness

Theorists have divided awareness into five levels, sometimes referred to as “the orders of consciousness.” One of the most popular is by Robert Kegan:

– First Order: Impulsive—perceives and responds by emotion

– Second Order: Imperial—motivated solely by one’s desires

– Third Order: Interpersonal—defined by the group

– Fourth Order: Institutional—self-directed, self-authoring

– Fifth Order: Inter-individual—interpenetration of self systems

A Hindu variation calls the levels of awareness or orders “sheaths”: food sheath, vital energy sheath, mental sheath, wisdom sheath, and bliss sheath.
Theories of Consciousness

“There are dozens of theories of how our brains produce subjective experiences, and good reasons besides philosophical interest to want to understand the problem more fully. In medicine, for instance, it could help to diagnose awareness in unresponsive people; in artificial intelligence, it might help researchers to understand what it would take for machines to become conscious,” explains an article in the journal Nature. Several major theoriesabout consciousness enjoy popularity in the neuroscience sphere:
Global workspace theory

This theory focuses on information and how consciousness accesses it. According to this theory, data stored in the mind is transmitted to higher-level brain regions. The “jolt of neuronal activity” triggered by this transmission ignites consciousness. The jolt must be balanced, though; too much of a jolt will cause the brain to lose its ability to respond; thus, it will fail to reach the conditions needed for consciousness to arise.
Higher-order theories

A profound experience, such as hearing music that resonates with the listener or viewing a painting that has a similar impact, can engage a person’s higher-order mental states by providing the brain with a mental representation of the stimulus.
Integrated information theory

This theory centers on phenomenal consciousness, which refers to a specific experience that combines all senses and the individual’s mental experience. This results in an irreducible phenomenon. None of the components can be separated or altered without changing the nature of the experience itself.
Attention schema theory

This theory distinguishes between “attention,” the information we focus on in the world, and “awareness,” the model we have of our attention. In one study, researchers demonstrated that participants who focused on a test were attending to the task at hand—tracking the movement of faintly detectable dots across a screen—but were unaware of the dots their eyes were following.
Recurrent processing theory

Recurrent processing theory suggests that consciousness requires a feedback loop of information flow.
The Neural Correlates of Consciousness

Is the mystery of consciousness to be found in the brain itself? The origin and nature of experiences, sometimes referredto as qualia, have never really been understood, from the earliest days of antiquity to the present.

The neuronal correlates of consciousness (NCC) refer to the minimal neuronal mechanisms that together suffice for any given conscious experience. For example, something must happen in the brain for a person to experience a toothache. Nerve cells generate impulses to produce the toothache, but do some special “consciousness neurons” have to be activated as well? In which brain regions would these cells be located? We can say that the brain generates experience, but where is consciousness located?

Consider “the cerebellum, the ‘little brain’ underneath the back of the brain. One of the most ancient brain circuits in evolutionary terms, it is involved in motor control, posture, and gait, and in the fluid execution of complex motor movements,” stated a Scientific American article. The cerebellum, which has the most neurons (about 69 billion, most of which are the star-shaped cerebellar granule cells involved in processing sensory and motor information), has been ruled out. Consciousness does not seem to be changed if parts of the cerebellum are lost to a stroke or removed in a surgical procedure. Even individuals born without a cerebellum retain consciousness.

“Neuroscientists believe that in humans and mammals, the cerebral cortex is the ‘seat of consciousness,’ while the midbrain reticular formation and certain thalamic nuclei may provide gating and other necessary functions of the cortex,” according to the study by Walling. But even if the cerebral cortex is the site of consciousness, scientists are still in the dark about what constitutes consciousness. A stoplight emits electromagnetic waves in the 760-nm range, but that tells us absolutely nothing about how a driver perceives the redness of the stoplight. Redness is a quality known only through the subjective or first-person point of view, or, in other words, the driver’s consciousness.

A 2025 study focused on the role of the thalamus, a region at the center of the brain that processes sensory information and supports working memory. This region is believed to play a role in conscious perception. The recognition that the thalamus may play an important role in consciousness stems from a study published in Science that examined individuals with severe and persistent headaches. The results led researchers such as Mac Shine, a systems neuroscientist at the University of Sydney, to believe that the thalamus acts as a filter, controlling which thoughts are part of a person’s awareness and which are not.
‘4E’ Cognitive Science

Maybe consciousness is not located in the brain. Some scholars advocate a set of ideas referred to as “4E cognitive science,” which stands for embodied, embedded, extended, and enactive cognition. According to this view, we perceive the external world without relying on internal representations. According to this theory, cells are in constant contact with their environment, drawing in resources and expelling waste—functions necessary for maintaining their metabolism. A cell cannot be indiscriminate; it must meet its needs, which may change depending on the dynamics of its environment. This process is what scientists call “sense making.”

“You start with life,” says Evan Thompson, a philosopher at the University of British Columbia and one of the founders of the 4E approach, according to Nautilus magazine.

From a 4E perspective, the brain is basically an organ that regulates life; it should not be considered more important than the heart or the liver. In this view, cognition, memory, attention, and consciousness are manifestations of the whole organism rather than attributes of the brain alone. In other words, the entire organism is conscious, not only the brain. The brain enables cogitation, but it is not the center of consciousness.
The Hard Problem

It was the Australian philosopher David Chalmers who, in 1995, first conceived of what he termed “the hard problem“—to explain how physical processes in the brain give rise to subjective experiences. This problem is to be distinguished from how conscious stimuli are encoded by the mind/brain, which Chalmers described as “easy.”

Chalmers dismissed the possibility that any explanation was capable of solving the hard problem since “it is impossible to reduce a subjective phenomenal experience to the physical.” This is not because our cognitive skills are lacking or because we have yet to reach an adequate level of understanding of physics or neuroscience. Instead, he maintained that the problem arises from the nature of subjective experience and its relation to the physical world.

This conclusion led Chalmers to adopt the concept of dualism—that the properties of our subjective conscious experience are distinct from the physical environment. To put it another way, as far as the hard problem is concerned, scientific inquiry is meaningless.

Chalmers’ hard problem is a “chimera, a distraction from the hard question of consciousness,” argued Daniel C. Dennett, an American philosopher and cognitive scientist. Most mental phenomena are easy problems of consciousness, Dennett said, including the following:

– “The ability to discriminate, categorize, and react to environmental stimuli;

– The integration of information by a cognitive system;

– The reportability of mental states;

– The ability of a system to access its own internal states;

– The focus of attention;

– The deliberate control of behavior;

– The difference between wakefulness and sleep.”

“The hard problem, on the other hand, ‘is the problem of experience,‘ accounting for ‘what it is like’ or qualia,” Dennett said in his article published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. The easy problems are solvable, he added, but the hard problem requires “the standard methods and assumptions of cognitive science (which are continuous with the standard methods and assumptions of biology, chemistry, and physics) with a more radical perspective.” In his article, Dennett asserted that Chalmers was guilty of “mis-focusing our attention,” failing to ask and answer, “what I called the hard question: ‘And then what happens?'” Specifically, once some stimulus intrudes on our consciousness, “what does this cause or enable or modify?”

“For several reasons, researchers have typically either postponed addressing this question or failed to recognize—and assert—that their research on the ‘easy problems’ can be seen as addressing and resolving aspects of the hard question, thereby indirectly dismantling the hard problem piece by piece, without need of any revolution in science.”

In sum, the hard problem of consciousness is the challenge of explaining why any physical state gives rise to the conscious experience rather than occurring without it. Even after we have explained the functional, dynamic, and structural properties of the conscious mind, we can still meaningfully ask the question “Why is it conscious?” This suggests that an explanation of consciousness will have to be found (if it can be) by going beyond the usual methods of science.

For neuroscientist Antonio Damasio, the hard problem is an obstacle insofar as it appears to be unsolvable by biological means. “The hard problem makes it look like consciousness is impossible to solve. It doesn’t give you any out. Every bit of evidence we have is that the mysteries of the universe have been gradually solved by science. I don’t see why consciousness should be any different,” Damasio said.

Anil Seth acknowledges that the hard problem “has undeniable intuitive appeal,” and that “consciousness doesn’t seem to be the kind of thing that can be explained in terms of physical processes.” However, he also believes that just because “something seems mysterious now doesn’t mean it will always seem mysterious.” “Consciousness,” he added, doesn’t have to be treated as “one big scary mystery.” Both the neuroscientists were speakingwith Nautilus.
Creature Consciousness

Animals may be regarded as conscious, like humans, in several ways. Consciousness may exist in degrees, however, and the specific sensory capacities required for it may not be sharply defined. A surprising range of creatures have shown evidence of conscious thought or experience, including insects, fish, and some crustaceans. Many creatures might be especially conscious of certain elements of the world—smell in dogs, sound in bats, magnetism in birds—based on their senses.

Bees roll wooden balls to play. The cleaner wrasse fish seems to recognize its own likeness in an underwater mirror. Octopuses appear to respond to anesthesia drugs and have proven adept at changing coloration and escaping their tanks in aquariums. In other studies, researchers found that zebrafish showed signs of curiosity when new objects were introduced into their tanks and that cuttlefish could remember what they had seen or smelled. Crowscan use tools, dolphins and beesuse language, and whales appear to communicate across miles underwater using songs varying in “dialect” from one part of the ocean to another. One experiment created a stressful situation for crayfish by electrically shocking them and then administering antianxiety drugs, which appeared to calm them.

Most of these discoveries have occurred in the past five years, and indicate that many species other than humans may have inner lives and can be sentient.

In April 2024, nearly 40 researchers signed The New York Declaration on Animal Consciousness at a conference at New York University. The declaration stated that researchers have found “strong scientific support” for the belief that birds and mammals have conscious experience and that there is a “realistic possibility of conscious experience in all vertebrates”—including reptiles, amphibians, and fish as well as to many creatures without backbones, such as insects, decapod crustaceans (crabs and lobsters), and cephalopod mollusks (squid, octopuses, and cuttlefish).

Some scientists are investigating whether animals such as octopuses and fish are conscious, although not in the same way as humans. There may not be a single type of cognition, as a German interdisciplinary research team argued in a 2020 article, calling for researchers to adopt a “biocentric” approach that accounts for the physical and social contexts of a particular animal.

This position is antithetical to conventional scientific thinking. “Descartes believed that animals ‘can’t feel or can’t suffer,'” said Rajesh Reddy, an assistant professor and director of the animal law program at Lewis and Clark College, in an NBC News article. “To feel compassion for them, or empathy for them, was somewhat silly or anthropomorphizing.”

The neural architecture required for consciousness in vertebrates, which includes mammals, lizards, amphibians, and most fish, “evolved in parallel several times through the enrichment of minimal consciousness capabilities,” said Oryan Zacks of the University of Tel Aviv, whose research team studies vertebrate phylogeny and neuroanatomy. She noted the correspondence between “enhanced behavioral capacities and the size and complexity of the hippocampus during vertebrate evolution,” which resulted in the evolution of “prospective, planning-enabling imagination in vertebrates,” leading to a step toward “cognition and consciousness.”

Does the act of throwing out the remains of meals and materials while cleaning a den by an octopus constitute “planning-enabling imagination?” These creatures do seem to display a purposefulness to this behavior, “gathering material in their arms, holding it in their arm web, and propelling it using their siphon–a funnel next to their head–sometimes several body-lengths away,” even throwing silt at other octopuses. Peter Godfrey-Smith of the University of Sydney, who bases his conclusions on behavior rather than neural architecture, speculates that “a lot of the targeted throws are more like an attempt to establish some ‘personal space,'” not necessarily evidence of a conscious or imaginative decision, according to the university website.
Are Plants Conscious?

Plants do not speak, move, or react in ways most people would recognize as actions of thinking beings with independent agency. True intelligence requires a brain. “Intelligence requires mental representations of the external world that can be manipulated, and that can be used to predict, explain, and control the world, and I’m pretty sure those representations would not exist in a non-neural organism,” said Michael Anderson, who studies intelligence and cognition at the University of Cambridge, in a Noema magazine article.

On the other hand, we have considerable evidence that plants exhibit intelligent behavior. When attacked, for instance, the leaves of some plants can produce toxic chemicals that would slow a predatory caterpillar’s growthand delay pupation. Plants can decide how much energy to allocate to pest repulsion based on the level of threat to their vital organs. If a lima bean—Phaseolus lunatus—is threatened by a caterpillar, it emits a chemical that entices parasitic wasps, which swoop in and kill the predators.

A decade ago, researchers found that “Boquila trifoliolata, a vine native to southern Chile, is somehow able to pass itself off as whichever species of plant is nearby, imitating its characteristic shape, color, and pattern, possibly to entice pollinators or put off herbivores by assuming the guise of a less tasty snack,” said the Noema magazine article. In one experiment, it even seemed to imitate a plastic houseplant. But are such behaviors instinctive or do they indicate a rudimentary consciousness, even intelligence?

What if plants also demonstrate memory? Experiments have shown that a Venus flytrap counts the number of times an insect triggers its sensory hairs. If it is twice in a row, the plant will engulf the predator. In other feats of memory, some plants tracking the sun seem to recall when it will rise, even after being in the dark for a few days. Others appear to learn lessons from droughts, shrinking or completely closing the evaporation pores on their leaves.

Electrical signals can trigger actions and senses even in organisms without nervous systems. “Non-neural cells can be wired up too,” said Alison Hanson, a neuroscientist at the University of Iowa. “They’re found in bacteria, they’re found in plants, they’re found in fungi, they’re found anywhere. You put epithelial cells together, you get an electric network, just on a slower timescale. They’re not unique to human brains. They’re everywhere.”

Such a radical departure from conventional thinking recalls 4E cognition, which asserts that cognition, or biological intelligence, is not localized in the brain. Indeed, it may manifest itself more in relationships between individuals than in individuals themselves, as seen in the phenomenon of swarming, exhibited by some species of birds and fish. “Cognition is a relational property between the organism and its environment,” said Paco Calvo, who studies minimal cognition in plants at the University of Murcia in Spain. “It’s not something that is sitting in your head or in your heart. It doesn’t reside within the organism. Organisms don’t exist in a void—they are always in an environment and acting with each other.”

“The boundaries between humans and nature and humans and machines are at the very least in suspense,” said the philosopher Tobias Rees during an interview with Noema magazine’s deputy editor Nils Gilman in 2021.

By studying machine learning—specifically artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models—we may better understand both human and nonhuman intelligences. This, in turn, may clarify what consciousness is and reassess its meaning.
Consciousness and Artificial Intelligence

So what does AI itself think about consciousness? Richard Dawkins, a British evolutionary biologist and zoologist, was curious about what ChatGPT, a popular AI system, would say about whether AI could be “conscious.”Dawkins began the dialogue with ChatGPT by expressing his satisfaction that AI could pass the Turing Test—whether a computer could mimic human response so precisely that it could be taken for a human.

“[Y]ou’re diving right into the heart of one of the biggest debates in AI and philosophy of mind,” ChatGPT responded. “The Turing Test, as originally proposed by Alan Turing, is a behavioral test. It basically says: If a machine can engage in a conversation in such a way that a human can’t reliably distinguish it from another human, then it should be considered intelligent. Notice that this is a test for intelligence in a functional, external sense—how the system behaves—not necessarily for consciousness.”

“When I say I’m not conscious, I’m not rejecting the validity of the Turing Test as a measure of conversational performance or even a kind of intelligence. I’m saying that consciousness is a different question entirely. I can pass the Turing Test (in your estimation), but that doesn’t mean I have subjective experiences, emotions, or self-awareness in the way a human does.”

ChatGPT acknowledged that “some philosophers argue that if a system acts consciously convincingly enough, maybe there’s no meaningful difference. Maybe ‘being conscious’ is just about behaving like a conscious being.”

ChatGPT pointed out that passing the Turing Test “doesn’t settle the question of consciousness. That’s still a wide-open mystery.” ChatGPT told Dawkins that, since it is made of “code and circuits,” it cannot be conscious like an organism made of neurons and synapses, and that it was created rather than born or evolved through natural selection. “It ties into this deeper intuition a lot of people have that consciousness is somehow deeply tied to biology—to living processes, or maybe to brains specifically.” ChatGPT does admit that in the future, AI could become conscious “if it processes information in the right, integrated, complex way—regardless of whether it’s made of silicon or neurons.” Despite the difference between AI and organisms, ChatGPT acknowledges that “in principle, a sufficiently advanced AI could have the same kind of rich, complex processing that gives rise to consciousness in humans.”
Conclusion (or Inconclusion)

Conscious experience is a puzzle, although it’s a familiar one since we all have it. We sense that it’s linked to the brain, but how? We may need other people—a community—to sense it, or maybe we need our gut as well to truly understand it, since there’s some evidence that our microbiome – the bacteria that reside in our stomachs and are responsible for digestion—plays a part in our feelings about the world and our perceptions of it. If we expand our definition, we could include plants, octopi (in their tentacles), AI (possibly), and other animals besides humans. Understanding consciousness is a subject of endless fascination and frustration to scientists, but also to those of us who possess it—that is to say, all of us. Whether we will have to settle for doubts and disputes or whether someone in a lab will definitively pinpoint the source of consciousness, we have no idea. Until then, we are left with the mystery.


Author Bio:
 Leslie Alan Horvitz is a novelist and journalist; he is also the science and technology editor at Observatory. His nonfiction books include Eureka: Scientific Breakthroughs That Changed the World, Understanding Depression(coauthored with Dr. Raymond DePaulo of Johns Hopkins University), and The Essential Book of Weather Lore. His articles have been published in Travel and Leisure, Scholastic, Washington Times, and Insight on the News, among others. He has served on the board of Art Omi and is a member of PEN America. Horvitz is based in New York City. You can find him online at lesliehorvitz.com.


Credit Line: This article was produced by Earth | Food | Life, a project of the Independent Media Institute.

Azerbaijan’s Distancing From Russia May Lead To Former Soviet Space’s Demise – Analysis

NO GOD

By 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has suffered a major geopolitical defeat as a result of his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He has accelerated the steps other former Soviet republics have been taking to distance themselves from Moscow (see EDM, July 22, 2025, February 3).

Nowhere have these moves been more fateful than in Azerbaijan. Baku now counts countries far beyond the borders of the former Soviet space other than Moscow as major partners. Azerbaijan’s relations with Moscow have sharply deteriorated over the last several years (see EDM, January 15, 2025, January 15).

As a result, there are signs that Azerbaijan may soon break with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), an organization that Moscow has long hoped would prevent post-Soviet states from moving away from Russia (Minval Politika). Baku has made steps to strengthen relations with other outside powers, such as the United States, Türkiye, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in particular (see EDM, May 1, 14, September 10, 2025, January 28). These strengthening relations are promoting the demise of the former Soviet space as a geopolitical reality and the unchallenged Russian sphere of influence, regardless of the relationships they maintain with Moscow. 

The limited territorial gains Putin has made as his expanded war in Ukraine enters its fifth year are far overshadowed by other developments. Not only have Russia’s losses in lives, treasure, and even legitimacy at home overshadowed this ongoing conflict, but its geopolitical defeats across the former Soviet space have been gaining traction. Country after country in the post-Soviet space have been distancing themselves from Moscow and breaking with, or at least not fully participating in, Moscow-organized structures such as the CIS. That has been recognized in Moscow and alarmed Russian analysts, who see it as a sign of Russia’s decline, even if it is sometimes ignored or downplayed in other capitals (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, October 11, 2023).

In the words of Russian journalist Stanislav Kucher back in 2023, what his country and the world are now witnessing is “the final collapse of the [Soviet Union] in the form of the departure of its ‘fragments’ from the orbit of the Russian Federation.” At present, he continues, “Russia has only one ally in the post-Soviet space: Belarus. The rest will either fence themselves off and arm themselves, or smile sweetly and then go ahead and arm themselves as well.” Given that, he concludes, “never before” has the CIS States been so meaningless and divided (Telegram/@StanislavKucher, December 7, 2023). Some of these have simply cut back their relationships with the CIS and Moscow, while others have slammed the door. The point, Kucher says, is they have left (see EDM, February 7, 2023).


Another Moscow expert, Aleksandr Dyukov of the Institute of Russian History, is even more despairing. He noted in November 2025 that the CIS has not achieved either of its two original purposes as a forum for “a civilized divorce” of the former union republics and as the basis of the maintenance of ties that had linked them together and could lead to the formation of a new union state (Svobodnaya Pressa, November 26, 2025).

Ever more of the former union republics are entering into relationships with each other and with other countries in ways that exclude Russia, Dyukov continues. Many of them are now its “competitors” rather than its “strategic partners,” however often they, or people in the Russian capital, say otherwise. Azerbaijan is a critically important example of this. It has built an alliance with Türkiye, thus becoming a competitor rather than an ally of Russia (see EDM, June 23, 2021). It will continue to act in that way even if its relations with Moscow should become more polite in the future.

There are compelling reasons for Dyukov’s pessimism. For over a decade, some in Baku have been calling for Azerbaijan to adopt a more independent line (Window on Eurasia, July 22, 2014). Both anger about Moscow’s overbearing language and actions, and especially Azerbaijan’s ever-closer ties with Türkiye and the United States, have fed those feelings. Relations with the United States have progressed through the U.S. role in brokering a settlement to Azerbaijan’s conflict with Armenia and through plans for the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) corridor, which will link Azerbaijan with the West.

Many in Baku are also celebrating U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s visit to the Caucasus this week (see EDM, August 12, 2025;Azernews, February 10). Just how far things have gone in that direction is reflected in an article by influential Baku foreign policy commentator A. Shakur, published on February 5 by the Minval outlet (Minval Politika, February 5). He writes, like aging actors who are of no interest to anyone but their aging fans, Russian officials have gone through the motions of trying to keep the CIS and the former Soviet space alive. In recent years, however, they have been capable “only of organizing informal summits” that the leaders of other countries may or may not attend. He pointedly notes that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has missed the last two (seeEDM, January 15).

Shakur continues:

In the 1990s, both Moscow and the West seriously considered that the CIS would become the framework under which the former Soviet republics would merge into a new confederation or federation. Publicly, the organization was presented as ‘a civilized divorce;’ but in reality, repeated attempts were made to establish supranational structures within it (Minval Politika, February 5).

Since then, he argues, “the CIS itself has in effect entered a vegetative state.” It has been an organization Moscow has “continued to try to use to promote supranational elements, including in such seemingly harmless areas as the teaching of the Russian language in other countries,” but that has lost all real significance (see EDM, October 31, 2024).

Those efforts and meetings cannot hide the reality that the CIS is already half dead, he continues. The three Baltic countries were never members, Georgia and Ukraine have left after Moscow invaded them, and Moldova and Armenia are preparing to withdraw. According to him, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan may soon follow, given their problems with Russia (Minval Politika, February 5). If Azerbaijan leaves, such exits will become even more likely. That will be the end, because Moscow has few resources at present to do anything about this approaching end of the former Soviet space. Its economy is not doing well, and both its use of force against its neighbors and mistreatment of citizens of these countries in Russia are only driving ever more of these states away from Russia.

Equally, or perhaps even more important, Shakur continues, countries beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union are “strengthening their positions,” including, but not limited to, the Organization of Turkic States, the PRC, the European Union, and the United States (see EDM, February 19, October 23, November 19, 20, 2025, January 21, 28). Shakur points out that “Azerbaijan’s closest allies—Türkiye and Pakistan—are not CIS members—nor are many of its main economic partners” (see EDM, October 23, 2024; Minval Politika, February 5).

This prompts “a fundamental question,” the commentator says. “What practical purpose does the CIS have for Azerbaijan, especially given Russia’s continuing ambitions within it,” including the use of naked force as in Ukraine? “Has the time not come,” he then asks rhetorically, “for Baku to leave this platform altogether?” If it takes that step, Shakur suggests, that will do more than destroy the CIS. It will undermine the notion that the post-Soviet space is more relevant to the geopolitical calculations of other countries than the interests and location of its current or past members (Minval Politika, February 5). There are hopeful signs that this new thinking is spreading not only in Moscow but also in Western capitals.

Time is running out for Bosnia’s public broadcaster

Time is running out for Bosnia’s public broadcaster
/ bne IntelliNews
By Nadja Lovadinov in Sarajevo February 10, 2026

Bosnia & Herzegovina’s state-level public broadcaster, Radio and Television of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BHRT), faces the risk of collapse after nearly a decade of financial obstruction and political inaction. The broadcaster must settle a BAM22mn (€11mn) debt to the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) by the end of February. Failure to do so could result in the blocking of its accounts. 

“If the accounts were blocked over the BAM22mn, it would mean that BHRT would be unable to operate for roughly two years,” said Lejla Babović,a senior BHRT executive, speaking to bne IntelliNews. “We earn about BAM1.2mn a month before taxes. A BAM22mn debt amounts to nearly 20 months of income. With blocked accounts, we simply wouldn’t be able to function.”

BHRT’s predicament is the result of years of political obstruction. Under the 2005 Law on the Public Broadcasting System, licence-fee revenues collected across the country are meant to be shared among the country’s three public broadcasters, with roughly half allocated to BHRT. However, since 2017, Radio Television of Republika Srpska (RTRS) — the official broadcaster for one of the country’s two regional entities — has refused to transfer its legally mandated share, depriving BHRT of an estimated €50mn.

In March 2025, the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina ruled that BHRT’s property rights had been violated. A few months later, in July, the Supreme Court of Republika Srpska also ruled in BHRT’s favour, overturning a previous decision and confirming the broadcaster’s entitlement to a share of the license fees collected in the entity. 

Despite these rulings, the funds were not transferred, and in November 2025, protests were held outside the country’s parliament in Sarajevo, during which BHRT called on the Council of Ministers to enforce the public broadcasting law and urged the state to provide temporary financing to cover debts owed to BHRT by Republika Srpska.

Media observers and press freedom organisations argue that RTRS’s refusal reflects broader political pressure by Republika Srpska’s ruling party, the nationalist, separatist leaning Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), to weaken and delegitimise state-level institutions.  

A 2022 report by Reporters Without Borders noted that RTRS has long obstructed proposals to establish a unified national public broadcaster spanning both entities, arguing that “paying its share of revenues to BHRT would be tantamount to recognising the existence of such an institution.”  

The prolonged shortfall has left BHRT struggling to cover staff salaries, pension contributions, and basic operating costs like electricity bills. Babović said the financial squeeze has hollowed out morale inside the broadcaster too. “People are demotivated, but they still come to work every day, as if everything is normal, as if we have money, like the BBC,” she said. 

Babović also noted that last year’s hike in minimum wages has added extra financial pressure. According to the broadcaster, if no resolution is reached in settling the outstanding debt to the EBU, over 700 employees could be left without pay from March 1. 

Calls are mounting for Bosnia & Herzegovina’s High Representative Christian Schmidt to intervene using his Bonn Powers, a set of extraordinary authorities that allow the high representative to override domestic institutions.

On December 1, in a letter addressed to the Office of the High Representative (OHR), the BH Journalists Association requested Schmidt’s intervention to secure a “temporary or permanent mechanism for financing BHRT”. The letter criticised the OHR for “silently observing, without any relevant or legitimate response, and without institutional interest” in the repeated violations of that law. The letter also cited the July 2025 Viaduct arbitration case as a precedent. In that case, Schmidt used his Bonn powers to allocate €50mn from the state budget to settle a debt dispute after Republika Srpska failed to pay the Slovenian construction firm Viaduct. 

On January 20, the BHRT workers union also sent a letter to Schmidt’s office urging him to intervene and “end the agony of the public service media”.  

However, despite these appeals, an intervention by Schmidt seems unlikely. In an interview with BHRT on January 20, he acknowledged the broadcaster’s financial distress but deflected responsibility, stating, “This is the responsibility of the parliament. I can provide support, but I should not be the one doing these jobs.”

Not everyone agrees with this stance. Babović argues that Schmidt should intervene, also citing the Viaduct case as precedent. She also noted that any intervention would largely circulate money within the state system. “Around 80% of BHRT’s debt is owed to local suppliers” such as taxes, VAT, utilities, she said. “We owe each other money, so taxes would be paid and the state would immediately benefit.”

The deteriorating situation of the public broadcaster has also drawn international attention. In a joint open letter to the European Commission, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), Central and Eastern European public broadcasters, and media freedom groups, warned that “BHRT’s collapse would eliminate the only independent, state-level source of information deepen the influence of foreign-backed disinformation networks, and undermine Bosnia and Herzegovina’s EU accession process.” 

On February 3, Luigi Soreca, head of the European Union Delegation to Bosnia and Herzegovina, issued a statement via X warning that BHRT’s potential collapse would represent a major setback for Sarajevo's EU goals, after the country formally opened accession negotiations in March 2024. “Every European Commission progress report on Bosnia and Herzegovina mentions BHRT in a dedicated chapter. In the last reform agenda report, the country’s authorities had promised that BHRT’s financing issues would be resolved by December 2025, but that has not happened,” Babović said, 

Babović warned that due to the “various outside influences and ongoing hybrid wars”, the absence of BHRT would be a “media catastrophe, not just for Bosnia and Herzegovina, but for the entire Southeast Europe”. Babović also pointed out that a serious security situation could unfold “if BHRT’s infrastructure were shut down — first and foremost critical transmitters and connections, which many state agencies and the Ministry of Defence rely on”.  

The upcoming general elections in October heighten the stakes. A joint letter to the OHR issued on January 21 by the Media Freedom Rapid Response and its partners, warned that the “disappearance of BHRT would mean the loss of an important source of reliable information at a critical moment for voters”.  

Babović argued that, “RTRS is under complete control of the SNSD, and the federal broadcaster is under the control of the ruling coalition. Without BHRT, we would be left with two autocratic media systems, and two autocratic regimes, where there would be no objective access and no impartial information for the public. 

“RTRS might even openly support the SNSD, making it harder for the opposition to get airtime. A similar situation could occur in the Federation. There would be war-mongering propaganda on the entity broadcasters, and I don’t know how far that could go.”

Babović said an urgent solution is needed. She added the Council of Ministers could still decide to allocate funds from the budget reserve, but political tensions make this near impossible. “All eyes are on Schmidt,” she said. “Even though he says this should be resolved by the country’s authorities, he needs to step in, especially in this election year, and prevent BHRT’s collapse.”

 

Slovenia launches artificial intelligence factory with new supercomputer

Slovenia launches artificial intelligence factory with new supercomputer
PM Robert Golob said his government’s investments in AI are aimed at boosting competitiveness and strengthening Slovenia’s technological excellence. / gov.si
By bne IntelliNews February 9, 2026

Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob attended the opening of the Slovenian Artificial Intelligence Factory (SLAIF), a new national hub that will host a next-generation supercomputer and make advanced computing capacity available to industry for the first time, his office said on February 9.

Speaking at the event, Golob said the government’s investments in artificial intelligence are aimed at boosting competitiveness and strengthening Slovenia’s technological excellence.

He stressed the importance of creating conditions that allow expert knowledge to be transferred into the economy.

“One of the greatest advantages of the new supercomputer and the artificial intelligence factory is precisely this connection between knowledge and the economy,” Golob said.

“The system will not be intended only for scientists, but will also be accessible to others, with industry and the economy at the forefront.”

The prime minister added that the government is also considering access for citizens, which would pave the way for a national generative artificial intelligence platform hosted within SLAIF.

The project is co-financed by the Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Innovation and the European Commission through the European High Performance Computing Joint Undertaking (EuroHPC JU).

The new supercomputer is expected to replace the existing EuroHPC Vega system by 2027, ensuring continuity in Slovenia’s access to cutting-edge supercomputing and big data infrastructure.

Authorities say SLAIF will play a key role in accelerating innovation, increasing productivity and enhancing the global competitiveness of the Slovenian economy.

 

 

New industrial robots installed per year – OWID

New industrial robots installed per year – OWID
China is leading in yet another tech revolution: the number of humanoid robots it is installing on factory floors is soaring. / bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews February 9, 2026

Industrial robots are rapidly becoming a common part of manufacturing in some countries. The chart here shows how many new ones are installed each year in the industrialized countries for which we have available data from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), Our World in Data  (OWID) reports.

In this dataset, industrial robots are defined as automatically controlled, reprogrammable, and multipurpose machines used in industrial settings. The data covers only physical industrial robots, not software or consumer technologies.

The chart shows that in 2011, China, the United States, Japan, Germany, and South Korea were all installing similar numbers of these robots. However, in the decade that followed, the paths of these countries diverged. By 2023, annual installations in China had risen to 276,000 robots, a twelvefold increase.

Over the same period, installations in the United States, Japan, Germany, and South Korea also increased, but much more slowly: none of them even doubled. The United States, which saw the second-largest rise, went from 21,000 new installations in 2011 to 38,000 in 2023.

These figures refer to new robots installed each year; that is, annual additions to the existing stock of robots. The IFR also publishes data on the total number of robots in operation, and by this measure, China also had the largest installed base, at around 1.76mn robots in 2023.

Relative to its large manufacturing sector, China’s stock of robots today does not stand out – but the data here shows that this is changing quickly.

Explore the interactive version of this chart.