Petrol-Dollar Trap: Imperialist Decay & Rupture of Global Energy

Akhilesh Chandra Prabhakar |

 24 Mar 2026

Developments in West Asia may lead either to heightened inter-imperialist rivalry or to the emergence of alternative forms of cooperation and organisation.

Image Courtesy: creativecommons.org

The world stands on the brink of a third world war. The terrifying threat of nuclear war looms large. No one knows what tomorrow will bring. Eight decades after the cataclysm of the Second World War—a systemic upheaval that claimed tens of millions of lives—the contemporary world once again stands on the edge of a fresh imperialist conflagration.

The "international law" of the post-WWII era has been exposed as a hollow bourgeois fiction. The imperialist "quad" (the US, the UK, France, and the Zionist entity, Israel) operates as a global gendarme, disregarding the UN framework to impose a unipolar dictatorship. Behind this shell lies the true engine of destruction: monopoly capital and the military-industrial complex. The dictatorship of the dollar, backed by oil and steel, demands perpetual war to sustain its terminal accumulation.

Within this current historical event, “four major contradictions” have emerged and intensified across the globe. So, this is not an accidental drift into disorder, but the sharpening of structural contradictions inherent in the imperialist phase of capitalism. These contradictions among major imperialist powers can be seen as —

• Inter-Imperialist Rivalry: The escalating friction between the US and its European counterparts—most notably the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, and Turkey—reflects a fracturing of the Western alignment as these powers navigate competing interests for market dominance.
• The Metropole-Periphery Divide: The yawning chasm between the developed capitalist core and the Global South periphery continues to widen, driven by the mechanisms of neo-colonial extraction and the systematic subordination of developing economies.
• Ideological and Existential Conflict: The profound antagonism between US-led imperialist structures and the remaining socialist bastions—including China, Cuba, the DPRK aka North Korea, and Venezuela—remains a primary axis of global tension.
• The Fundamental Class Contradiction: Most pivotally, the internal struggle between capital and labour has reached a fever pitch within the nation-state framework, as the ruling class seeks to resolve systemic stagnation through the heightened exploitation of the proletariat.

In geopolitical terms, the growing militarisation of international relations—driven by US expansionist strategies and sustained through both direct and proxy interventions—has transformed West Asia into a theatre of prolonged devastation. The populations of Iran, Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria continue to endure immense human suffering as warfare reorganises entire societies through destruction, displacement, and dispossession. This is not merely a regional crisis, it signals a broader instability within the global capitalist system.

The aggressive unilateralism associated with Donald Trump accelerated these dynamics, pushing global war toward a destructive stage. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the US accounts for about 42% of global arms exports to 99 countries. The Trump administration, by pushing the world toward a third world war, has effectively opened a new avenue for profit-making for American arms industries.

Israel-West Asia Conflict

Israel, which has occupied nearly 90% of Palestinian territory, has been equipped with nuclear weapons by the US in order to maintain its dominance over the abundant oil and gas resources, gold, and other natural mineral wealth of the Gulf region. On the other hand, around 28 countries, including Iran and North Korea, have not recognised Israel as a sovereign state.

In the past, several wars have taken place between Israel and the Gulf countries, in which Israel emerged victorious. In the entire Gulf region, Iran remains the only country capable of challenging Israel. The US and Israel do not want Iran to emerge as a nuclear-armed state with the support of China and Russia. Meanwhile, Iran, China, and Russia are committed to the establishment of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state.

US Attack on Kharg Island

The US has made a grave mistake by attacking Iran-controlled Kharg Island. From this island, Iran exports around 90–95% of its daily oil. Nearly 80–90 % of Iran’s oil reserves are associated with Kharg Island, which also holds vast deposits of gold and other mineral resources.

Kharg Island is Iran’s largest oil export terminal, with a loading capacity of about 7 million barrels per day, although current exports are around 1.5 million barrels daily. At the same time, the movement of approximately 3.5 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has already been disrupted. Global consumption (including China, India, Japan, South Korea) exceeding 105 million barrels per day on one hand, and oil prices exhibiting 50% around the $160/barrel on the other. (Source: International Markets. Ithaca: Cornell University Press).

Today, that struggle has moved from the oil field to the maritime chokepoint.

The Strait of Hormuz is a bottleneck for more than just fuel. It carries:

• 40% of the global fertiliser trade (essential for industrial agriculture).
• 85% of West Asian polyethylene.
• 25% of global helium supplies (critical for high-tech and semiconductor production).
• 30% of Oil and gas supplies to the million people

(Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). 2026. World Oil Transit Chokepoints Report. Washington, D.C.: EIA).

Israel’s Attacks on Energy Infrastructure

Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field (the field is indeed the largest gas reserve globally). Iran targeted Israel’s Haifa refinery. Qatar’s LNG infrastructure (including Ras Laffan) that supplies roughly 40% of global LNG, were also hit. Multiple Gulf refineries operated by US multinational corporations in Saudi Arab, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Jordan were attacked.

Reports that the US Navy has “withdrawn” from the Gulf and maintains no presence within 700 km is inaccurate. It maintains a significant presence through the Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain. Gulf countries. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Jorden spend heavily on US security arrangements.

Global Impact of War

Since the outbreak of war against Iran on February 28, the global stock markets have suffered losses of approximately $6 trillion. Of this, nearly $2 trillion has been lost in the US stock market alone (Source: Sky News; TRT News; The Wall Street Journal; International Monetary etc)

Impact on India and China

India imports about 85–88% of its crude oil, and around 40-45 % comes from the Gulf region. Around 60% hotels and restaurants have been closed in India due to shortages of gas supply. China is also a major energy importer but has diversified supply routes. China is constructing pipeline links to Russia (e.g., Power of Siberia). While India has no direct pipeline link with Russia, Iran or any other oil countries, and heavily relies on tanker imports.

Thorium Discovery in China: Fact and Context

China has indeed invested heavily in thorium-based nuclear research, particularly molten salt reactors. Thorium is widely considered:

• More abundant than uranium
• Capable of producing less long-lived radioactive waste
• Potentially safer due to lower meltdown risks

However, reports that China has “confirmed over one million tonne of thorium discovery” should be treated cautiously. Thorium resources are globally abundant (not unique to China), and estimates depend on geological classification rather than confirmed economically extractable reserves. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, thorium technology remains experimental, with no large-scale commercial deployment yet.

The Energy Shock: Attacking the Working Class

Energy (particularly petroleum oil and gas) for newly industrialising countries, such as India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Eastern Africa and Eastern European countries, is a universal input. When the price of oil spikes, the cost of existence for the global proletariat follows. The projected jump to $200 per barrel threatens a global "stagflationary" spiral—where prices rise while the full-flagged economy falls.

This vulnerability is starkest in the periphery nations, like Vietnam and Pakistan, holding less than 20 days of reserves, which are being pushed toward total economic collapse. The IEA emergency release of 400 million barrels is a mere statistical band-aid, representing only four days of global appetite. This is a disruption of expanded reproduction.

Rising energy prices exert immediate pressure on everyday life. Increases in oil costs translate directly into higher prices for transport, food, and essential goods, disproportionately affecting working populations. The prospect of sustained price escalation raises the likelihood of a stagflationary environment, where inflation coexists with economic stagnation.

The impact is especially severe in the Global South, where limited reserves and fragile fiscal conditions heighten vulnerability. Countries with constrained energy buffers face mounting balance-of-payments pressures, currency instability, and potential social unrest. Emergency interventions by international agencies provide only temporary relief, failing to address underlying structural weaknesses.

Capitalists attempt to offset rising energy costs by squeezing labour—lowering real wages and intensifying exploitation. As Marxist theorist Rosa Luxemburg argued, the capitalist machine’s thirst for external resources makes it inherently violent; when those resources are constricted, the system turns its teeth inward on the working class.

Historically, such situations lead to intensified exploitation. In order to preserve profitability, capital responds by suppressing wages, reducing labour protections, and shifting the burden of crisis onto the working class. This pattern underscores the continued relevance of Luxemburg, who emphasised the expansionist and crisis-prone nature of capitalist accumulation.

Petrodollar System Under Strain

At the core of the present turmoil lies the question of monetary power. Since the 1970s, the global dominance of the US dollar has been closely linked to its central role in oil transactions. This arrangement—commonly described as the “petrodollar system”—has enabled the US to sustain large fiscal deficits while maintaining its global influence.

However, this system is increasingly under pressure from ‘BRICS’ - China and Russia. Efforts by emerging economies to conduct energy trade in alternative currencies, including the Chinese yuan and various local units, signal a gradual shift away from dollar dependence. Such developments challenge the foundations of US financial hegemony and suggest the emergence of a more fragmented monetary order.

As Egyptian economist Samir Amin observed, global capitalism is structured through unequal exchange, whereby value flows disproportionately from the periphery to the core. Any weakening of the petrodollar arrangement has the potential to disrupt this pattern, though it does not automatically guarantee a more equitable outcome.

Multipolar Realignments and Emerging Contradictions

The rise of alternative economic groupings, particularly BRICS, reflects an ongoing transition toward multipolarity. Initiatives aimed at creating independent financial mechanisms and reducing reliance on Western-dominated institutions point to a reconfiguration of global power relations.

Yet this transition is neither linear nor inherently progressive. Multipolarity may simply redistribute influence among competing centres rather than transform underlying structures. As American sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein argued, periods of hegemonic decline are often characterised by turbulence, uncertainty, and conflict rather than orderly change.

Crisis, Transition, and Historical Choice

The brink of a third world war surrounding West Asian and Caribbean countries: Venezuela and Cuba, Ukraine, and Taiwan has exposed sharply the emerging contradictions among the inter-imperialist gangs: ‘the US vs. NATO’, and between ‘the US-led NATO and BRICS (particularly China and Russia)’ for changing the new multipolar global order or maintaining the current unipolar American order.

At this critical juncture, humanity confronts a fundamental choice. The erosion of dollar hegemony, the intensification of resource competition, and the growing instability of global systems are opening new historical possibilities. These developments may lead either to heightened inter-imperialist rivalry or to the emergence of alternative forms of cooperation and organisation.

The writer is an economist, academic, and author with over 25 years of experience across Asia, Africa, and the Pacific. The views are personal.

 

Faiz in Cuba: A Revolutionary Poet’s Account and Why it Still Matters

Fatima Shahzad | 26 Mar 2026

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Faiz Ahmed Faiz, an iconic Pakistani communist poet, records the legacy of solidarity that the Cuban Revolution represents to all the oppressed peoples of the world.

 

Faiz Ahmad Faiz, 1983. Photo: Wiki Commons

It was in 1973 that Faiz Ahmed Faiz landed at the José Martí airport in Havana, and the first voice he heard was the echoes of Fidel Castro’s speech on the loudspeaker. The most renowned communist poet of Pakistan opened his travelogue by saying he has stepped into the country where people once accustomed to hunger, poverty and exploitation are building a new society that will be the beacon of hope for the oppressed of the world. This piece of writing also shows us Faiz as a political analyst – a comrade who took it upon himself to document a journey which shed light on the experience of the Cuban revolution for the people of his own country. His own words profoundly capture the task he set out to do;

“About Cuba, we had no clear image, no picture in our minds. We knew only that there were American gangsters there, and many bars and gambling dens … Then came the revolution. A strange feeling arose – that in this distant, unknown island, a peculiar flame has been lit, the light of which begins to dazzle the eyes of Russia and America, and you and me. You too must have wondered what this flame is and why. Last month I had the opportunity to see the sparks of this fire with my own eyes and to feel its warmth in my own body.”

The land where everyone sings

The travelogue is also a documentation of people’s history and the flow of writing is chronological. In 1959, Faiz wrote that Cuba was a whisper, a footnote in newspapers owned by men who called revolutionaries bandits. It was not a nation but a plantation where two-thirds of the land was owned by just 8% of the landowners. The United Fruit Company and American corporations controlled vast stretches of the most fertile soil. Peasants tilled the land that was never theirs, their labor feeding the profits that flowed North. Illiteracy stood at over 40%, with entire villages without schools, where no one could read or write. This was the Cuba that the revolution inherited, a US colony in all but name headed by the military dictator Batista.

Faiz goes on to narrate the story of Fidel Castro which is layered in deep emotion. It is impossible to ignore that the events of the struggle in Cuba that are mentioned, evoke memories of the 1968-1969 revolutionary uprising in Pakistan which toppled the military dictatorship of Ayub Khan. Upon reading Fidel’s account of Moncada – of young revolutionaries slaughtered after attacking a barracks, of comrades tortured but refusing to betray – he recognized a familiar spirit. Just five years earlier, he had witnessed Pakistani students in Rawalpindi, worker-student protests burning police stations, and peasants in Hashtnagar taking up arms. The names and geography were different, but the courage was the same. In Cuba’s martyrs, Faiz saw the unfulfilled promises of Pakistan’s own revolution. In Fidel’s defiant words, “history will absolve me”, he heard an echo of  every young revolutionary that had fallen, from Asia to Latin America.

The words of Fidel struck the poet so deeply, that he ended up translating the entire speech into Urdu for the readers, instead of summarizing it in his own words. Faiz then turns his attention to the achievements of the Cuban Revolution he saw at the time. The Agrarian Reform Law broke the estates and the land was redistributed amongst the peasantry. Clinics were built in every district and preventive care reached villages that had never seen a doctor. In his beautiful prose, Faiz describes the conversion of the Moncada Barracks into a school. Former military installations were being turned into classrooms and education was made completely free, from primary schools through university. Illiteracy had been reduced to just 3% within 14 years of the revolution’s victory. Faiz contrasts this to pre-revolutionary times by observing that “Now, anywhere you go in Cuba, from one end to the other, you will see schools.”

Faiz concludes this section with the experience he found most unforgettable about the Cuban Revolution: how there is no distinction between the government and the people of Cuba. He recounts that in his exchanges with ordinary Cubans in the streets, fields, factories and campuses, the leaders are talked about by their first names – as if everyone carries Fidel, Che, Celia and others in their everyday lives like they know them. The leaders labored and struggled with the people, through crisis and hardship to build socialism. The darkness that engulfed Cuba under direct US-backed dictatorship is lifted by the melodies, arts and music hummed by a nation that stood up for its revolutionary ideals. Joy emanates from the pages as Faiz writes, “Here, everyone sings.”

The debt we owe to humanity

Towards the end of the travelogue, we are presented with the threats and pressure that US imperialism is continuing to exert upon Cuba to undermine the revolutionary project. Faiz was writing this at a time when Cuba was being embargoed and had already triumphed against US interventions such as the Bay of Pigs. He cut through Cold War propaganda by stating clearly what the bourgeois historians deem the “Cuban missile Crisis” was nothing but a defense of sovereignty by the Cuban people in the face of foreign aggression by former colonizers. This stranglehold of Cuba at the hand of imperialism is seen clearly today by the unilateral sanctions, blockades, and threats that the United States makes against it. Faiz understood the impacts of these counter revolutionary attempts and wrote, “Revolution is not a luxury, it is a class war. And in war, there are wounds.”

In 2005, Pakistan was devastated by a 7.6 magnitude earthquake which claimed over 73,000 lives and left millions homeless. The world pledged aid but Cuba’s response was unlike any other. This country 13,000 kilometers away, under a punishing US blockade, did not even wait for diplomatic formalities or political gain. Within a week, the first Cuban medical brigade landed in Rawalpindi, with surgical kits and field hospitals. What followed was the largest medical mission in history of Cuba’s Henry Reeve International Brigade. Over the next seven months, more than 2,400 Cuban medical personnel would serve in Pakistan. They established 32 field hospitals in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir. As other international teams left, the Cubans stayed and went to affected villages without roads that the world had forgotten. Experts warned of a second wave of deaths from disease exposure. However, that wave never came due to the tireless efforts of Cuban doctors.

Once again in 2006, Fidel Castro made yet another gesture of solidarity to the people of Pakistan. Cuba would provide scholarships for Pakistani students to study medicine free of cost. To date, approximately 1000 Pakistani doctors have graduated from Cuban universities, having been trained to serve their communities often in the same neglected regions where Cuban doctors first worked. Cuba has welcomed Pakistan’s Health Minister in 2025 to observe the healthcare infrastructure firsthand. Even last year, three students from rural Punjab were enrolled with full scholarships in Cuban universities to continue this program. History stands as proof of Faiz’s words half a century since he wrote: Cuba’s revolution was never just about Cubans, but about the dignity of all of the oppressed.

We must ask ourselves whether we have given the same support to Cuba as it faces fuel shortages and blackouts due to the US oil embargo. What Cuba gave to Pakistan was aid without conditions, in stark contrast to the structural adjustment programs that institutions like the IMF place upon countries like ours which cut public spending and pull us deeper into debt. Cuba sent doctors to save the lives of millions of Pakistani citizens. The United States sponsors wars that have killed and displaced millions in the region. What we owe to Cuba is thus a debt to humanity itself. I want to end with this lesser known poem by Faiz which he recited in an evening in honor of Cuba:

“Yesterday 

You had been the voice for a blooming island

If not more, you were the leader of some 7 million people

 

Today

Millions more in China stand shoulder to shoulder with you

And thousands of tongues pay homage in your name

 

Today

You are the voice of three continents

You have been inscribed in history as an eternal call

You are for the ages and generations to come,

You have bestowed the grace of struggle upon enslaved peoples

In every era, you are the harbinger of spring

Which despite hardships, will always mark the rights of humanity.”

Fatima Shahzad is the general secretary of Progressive Students Federation (PrSF), an organizer with Socialist Reading Group (SRG), and an artist from Pakistan.

Courtesy: Peoples Dispatch

 

Italy Referendum: Millions Defeat Meloni’s Judiciary Reform Plans

Ana Vračar | 25 Mar 2026

As many as 15 million people rejected Giorgia Meloni’s reforms aiming to erode separation of powers at March 22-23 referendum.

Protest ahead of March 22-23 referendum in Italy. Source: Cambiare Rotta/Facebook

More than 15 million people defeated Giorgia Meloni’s intention to reform the judiciary and erode the separation of powers by voting “NO” at a referendum on March 22-23. With almost 60% of eligible voters participating, the outcome has sent waves across the political landscape – and marked an enormous victory for social movements, trade unions, and youth associations that have built resistance to Meloni’s repressive agenda over the past years.

The far-right administration wanted to introduce constitutional changes that would increase government control over the judiciary, under the pretext of an inefficient magistrature slowing down legal processes. The entire state apparatus, including Italy’s biggest media houses, was mobilized to ensure the reform would pass – and failed.

 

According to Giuliano Granato from the left party Potere al Popolo, the referendum’s high participation is a breakthrough in itself. In the weeks leading up to the vote, students found ways to bypass bureaucratic and economic obstacles that would have prevented them from voting away from home, while others traveled literally across the world to participate.

“This is important, on the one hand, because many people wanted to take action on the issue at hand,” Granato told Peoples Dispatch. “But many also voted because they saw it as an opportunity to send a political message.”

 

All the layers of a “no”

For “yes” votes, the political message was pretty straightforward: confirmation of the right-wing government’s mandate and more space to implement its program. For “no” votes, however, the meaning should be analyzed through multiple layers, Granato emphasizes. The first “no,” he points out, was in defense of the constitution – a progressive constitution forged after the defeat of fascism with participation from those who took part in the resistance.

 

The “no” was also a refutation of the government in general, Potere al Popolo and other left organizations insist. “We believe,” Granato says of the mass vote against, “this has acted as a catalyst for much broader discontent that traditional political opposition couldn’t adequately channel.”

The referendum numbers surpass the voting base of traditional center and center-left parties, indicating many voters who usually abstain took part. Granato suggests this should be interpreted in the context that, due to Italy’s political landscape – where options from right to center-left essentially run on the same economic premises – people usually feel their vote does not change anything. In this case, it was different. “People knew their vote would count,” he points out.

 

This was one of the results of a highly polarized campaign, reinforced by uncertain polls up until the very end. Even the day before the referendum began, Granato notes, one could not predict which way the vote would swing. “People participate when they feel their input matters. When they think it makes no difference, they stay at home.”

The “no” was also a rejection of anti-worker policies, as demonstrated by trade unions’ participation in the building of a campaign for a “social ‘no.’” According to the grassroots union Unione Sindacale di Base (USB), the result “sends a strong signal of change and struggle that should be channeled into efforts to protect living and working conditions, as well as getting Italy out of wars and demanding the dismissal of the Meloni government.”

 

Opposition to war and militarization is another layer to the referendum’s results, stemming not only from massive mobilization in solidarity with Palestine that brought Italy to a halt three times during the genocide, but also from opposition to the administration’s silence and servility toward illegal attacks launched by the Trump and Netanyahu governments – including in Iran and Lebanon, but also Venezuela and Cuba.

 

“And this isn’t just an ethical ‘no,’” Granato adds. “It’s a ‘no’ with immediate material consequences for Italy, since the country is already hard-hit by inflation [stemming from these assaults]. Fuel prices have already risen, along with utility bills and the cost of essential supplies.”

 

Generation Gaza is alert and active

In this context, Potere al Popolo, USB, student associations Cambiare Rotta, CAU and OSA, and many more took to the streets across dozens of cities immediately after the results were announced, demanding the Meloni government resign. While the administration has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to ignore popular demands and is expected to do so in this case as well, these organizations intend to seize the referendum’s momentum and build the transformative power Italy needs.

This includes, as Granato details, fighting for radical change in labor and living conditions, including living wages and safe working conditions for all workers, shaping a true industrial strategy oriented toward the wellbeing of the majority rather than wealthy industrialists and corporations, and building energy sovereignty. Finally, it includes introducing a different foreign policy independent of NATO and US interests and rooted in global cooperation and solidarity.

The high participation of young voters – with around 58% of this population group rejecting Meloni’s proposals – gives hope that this battle can be won. “Generation Gaza” in Italy is “alert and active,” Granato says – and together with other progressive forces, it will not give in to the far right.

 

Courtesy: Peoples Dispatch

 

Kashmir: Thinning Snow, Neglected Canals Disrupting Irrigation Systems

Parsa Tariq | 26 Mar 2026

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In Litter village, changing snowfall patterns are colliding with the decline of collective water management, leaving canals dry and farmers struggling.

A picture revealing the condition of the dried canals (Photo - Zeeshan Shabir) .

Pulwama, Jammu and Kashmir: In Litter village of south Kashmir's Pulwama district, the canals that once carried water through most of the year now run shallow, reduced to thin, uncertain streams.

For farmers like Bashir Ahmad Kullay (56), the change has not arrived as a single event. It has unfolded slowly, winter after winter, as snowfall has thinned, melted faster, and disappeared earlier than it used to.

"Earlier, rivers and canals had water for most of the year," Kullay said, standing beside a narrow irrigation channel that cuts across his fields. "Now, because snowfall is low, water levels have dropped sharply. Farming has become difficult."

Last year, he recalled, the pattern itself seemed to shift. There was excess water early in the season, followed by a dry July. The snow that should have sustained irrigation into summer had already melted away.

"Water came at the wrong time," he said. "The paddy had just been transplanted. It needs standing water then. But the fields had already started drying. The crops were damaged."

What farmers like Kullay are describing is not just a decline in snowfall, but a deeper breakdown of Kashmir’s irrigation system, one that depended both on snow stored in the mountains and collective management on the ground. Both are now weakening at the same time.

A system under strain

Litter village is surrounded by paddy fields and orchards, with a network of narrow irrigation canals running through the farmland. These canals draw water from feeder streams connected to the Rambi Ara, a river that originates in the Pir Panjal range and flows through parts of Shopian and Pulwama before joining the larger Jhelum river system.

Residents said that the changes are visible not just in the canals, but upstream as well.

Some pointed to illegal extraction of sand, gravel and boulders from the Rambi Ara stream near Lassipora. A local resident said that the mining usually takes place at night.

“Rambi Ara flows past our area, and people extract boulders and gravel from it in Lassipora,” he said. “They bring machines like JCBs and trucks and work during the night. It’s not just one or two tippers, sometimes dozens of truckloads are taken out in a single night. Because of this, the water level has gone down.”

Residents say the reduced water level has affected the amount of water entering irrigation canals in nearby villages.

For generations, irrigation in villages like Litter functioned as a shared system. Snow accumulated in the Pir Panjal mountains through winter and melted gradually, feeding streams that were diverted into canals. These canals, in turn, were maintained both by government departments and by villagers themselves.

Before each agricultural season, residents would collectively clear silt from smaller channels, ensuring water reached fields across the village, including those at the tail end.

That system is now weakening.

Maintenance of the canal network officially falls under the Irrigation and Flood Control Department. Residents say that in earlier years, villagers would also collectively clear silt from smaller channels before the irrigation season began. But farmers say such community efforts have declined over time, leaving most maintenance dependent on government departments.

As that collective system has eroded, delays in state response have become more visible.

Kullay added that maintenance often comes too late. "Canal cleaning is the responsibility of the irrigation department. But the work usually starts during the farming season."

A field supervisor in the irrigation department said: “If we clean the canals too early, they fill with silt again by the time farmers begin transplanting paddy.”

Snow is no longer reliable storage

A growing body of research suggests that snow cover in Jammu and Kashmir has been steadily declining, with sharper reductions observed in recent years. This winter offered a stark example. During Chillai Kalan, the 40-day period traditionally associated with the heaviest snowfall, large parts of the Valley recorded a severe precipitation deficit, leaving little snow to sustain water flow later in the season. Without sufficient snowpack, whatever snow does fall now melts quickly, sending water downstream early and leaving little for the months when crops need it most.

"Snowfall patterns in Kashmir are shifting," said Sanjeev Singh Parihar, a water resources engineer who works on hydrology, watershed management, and climate-linked water systems. "A greater proportion of winter precipitation is falling as rain instead of snow, and the accumulated snow is melting earlier than it historically did."

Snowpack, he explained, traditionally acted as seasonal storage. "With reduced snow accumulation and earlier melt, water availability during the peak agricultural season, especially June and July, is declining.” Warmer temperatures are advancing the snowmelt cycle, shifting peak river discharge earlier by several weeks.

"This results in relatively higher flows in March or April, followed by reduced discharge during peak crop water demand months," Parihar said. "For farmers cultivating paddy, which requires standing water during early summer, this timing mismatch creates irrigation stress."

The effect, he added, is a weakening of the natural storage system itself. "Rapid melting produces short-duration high flows rather than sustained baseflow. Streams now see early pulses of water followed by low-flow conditions later in the season."

Persistent problems

For farmers at the tail end of canal networks, the impact is even more severe.

Mohammad Altaf Paray, a 48-year-old farmer from Awantipora, said that last year, water never reached his fields at all.

"We prepared the land, used tractors, did everything," he said. "But our fields are at the tail end. When water reduced, it didn't reach us."

His crops dried up. "Earlier, one kanal would give a profit of twenty to thirty thousand rupees. Last year, instead of profit, we had to bear a loss of five thousand. All the hard work was wasted."

Altaf and other farmers in Awantipora had submitted repeated requests to repair a government-installed pump system meant to supply water to their fields.

The pump exists, but no longer functions effectively.

"The water level has gone down, and the pipe is above the water. It does not work."

Farmers requested that the pipe be lowered to match the new water level. The request remains pending.

"It has been years. Nothing has been done."

This trend has pushed farmers to rely on individual solutions rather than community ones.

Across south Kashmir, farmers are increasingly turning to private borewells which is a costly shift and also encourages the weakening of shared irrigation systems.

Junaid Yusuf (30)  installed a borewell on his land at his own expense, spending nearly Rs 1.5 to 2 lakh.

"I arranged the money myself," he said. "I took a loan."

The borewell, he said, is used for irrigation, not for paddy cultivation.

While government support exists, access to it remains uneven.

An irrigation department official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that under schemes such as the Holistic Agriculture Development Programme, farmers can receive between 50 to 70 percent subsidy on borewell installations.

However, the official acknowledged that this support depends on available funds and application timelines.

Yusuf said he did not receive any subsidy.

"The process takes time. There is a lot of paperwork. You don't know when the money will come."

According to him, even when applications are approved, funds can take six to twelve months to be released.

"You have to spend first and then wait. Sometimes you don't know if you will get the money at all."

Experts say the issue is not only climatic, but also one of management.

"Declining snowpack is a major factor," Parihar said. "But sedimentation in canals, upstream changes, rising evapotranspiration, and inadequate maintenance also reduce effective water delivery."

Deforestation and construction in upstream areas can further accelerate water loss.

"They reduce infiltration and groundwater recharge, and increase runoff velocity. Water drains out quickly instead of being retained."

Experts warn that growing dependence on groundwater may not be sustainable.

"If extraction increases without adequate recharge, groundwater levels could decline," Parihar said. "That could create another crisis."

Changing crops

For farmers, the shift is already visible in their fields. In Pulwama, Shabir Ahmad Bhat (63) said that there was a time when paddy stretched across much of the landscape.

"Earlier, large areas here were under paddy," he said. "But because of water shortage, people are shifting."

"Now people are planting high-density apple orchards. For that, even less water can work."

Experts say such shifts can reduce water demand, but they are not a complete solution.

"Moving to horticulture can be a rational adaptation," Parihar said. "But these crops still depend on reliable seasonal water, and they introduce new economic risks."

In Shopian, Haris Mushtaq Mir (25) said the decline has been visible for several years.

"Where we used to earn ten rupees, now we earn five. If this continues, we may not be able to continue farming."

Back in Litter, Kullay says farmers are adjusting as best as they can — changing crops, reducing land under cultivation, finding new ways to access water.

But adaptation, he says, has limits.

"Farming depends on water," he said. "If water is not there, what can we do?"

Parsa Tariq is a freelance journalist and a member of 101Reporters, a pan-India network of grassroots reporters. 

 

50 Years Since Start of Argentina’s Bloody Dictatorship

Pablo Meriguet | 27 Mar 2026

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The factors behind the coup d’état, the historical context, and the role of foreign interference are all part of the memory of the dictatorship. The battle over that memory may influence Argentina’s present and future.

Oath of Jorge Rafael Videla as President of Argentina following the coup in 1976. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

March 24 marks the 50th anniversary of the start of one of the bloodiest and most ruthless military dictatorships in 20th-century history. In 1976, in Argentina, the leaders of the Argentine Army, supported directly and indirectly by the US government (through its military and intelligence forces), overthrew the government and ruled until December 10, 1983.

The number of murders, rapes, arbitrary detentions, and disappearances are truly horrifying. According to various reports, the figures on crimes against humanity – which are corroborated by most of the country’s and region’s most reputable historians – speak for themselves regarding the brutality of the military government:

• 30,000 disappeared;
• 15,000 murdered;
• 8,500 arbitrarily imprisoned, including priests, nuns, the elderly, people with disabilities, women, and children;
• 1,000,000 involuntarily displaced and exiled within Argentina or to other countries;
• Forced expropriation and the illegal sale of many of the victims’ properties;
• Imprisonment in concentration camps and the establishment of detention and torture sites in various parts of the country;
• Countless cases of rape, beatings, dismemberment, electrocution, etc.;
• Illegal adoption of more than 300 children born in captivity whose parents were murdered.

Historical revisionism as political justification

Although a significant portion of Argentine society views the dictatorship as a social trauma that is difficult to forget due to the brutality of the acts committed (nearly 70% of Argentines condemn the 1976 dictatorship), others have attempted to justify the need for the military government’s imposition by citing political instability. In this regard, significant attempts have been made to revise history to claim that the figures for the dictatorship’s crimes are not as high.

Currently, the figure who most questions these figures is the president, the far-right Javier Milei, according to whom, despite historical documents proving otherwise, there was no systematic plan to repress and eliminate revolutionary groups, but rather an “internal war” in which the Armed Forces committed excesses. Furthermore, Milei, true to his controversial and provocative style, claims that the actual number of disappeared persons does not exceed 9,000.

In fact, the idea that the 1976 dictatorship was a consequence of the political activity of the Argentine left has been upheld since the early days of the military government, which proclaimed itself the “National Reorganization Process”. According to these arguments, the Argentine revolutionary left was murdering, disappearing, and torturing people, leaving the Army with no alternative but to seize power and “restore order”. This is precisely the interpretation of history that Milei’s inner circle of intellectuals defends half a century later.

The origins of a bloody dictatorship

However, when one looks closely at the history of that era and subjects it to the test of time and declassified documents, the reasons are clear. Between 1973 and 1976, the phenomenon known as Peronism once again seized political power in the country. And it was precisely during this period that the bloodbath that would institutionalize the military dictatorship years later began.

It is a matter of debate whether the military officer and leader of the country’s most popular party, Juan Domingo Perón, was aware of the plans being hatched to eradicate the revolutionary left in Argentina, especially considering that a segment of that left – which would be annihilated in subsequent years – identified with Peronism, even going so far as to found its own armed movement, called the Montoneros.

Within Peronism – a heterogeneous political force rife with internal tensions (even to this day) – some factions negotiated with the wealthiest and most reactionary sectors of Argentine society. One of these was Perón’s personal secretary and, later, minister of social welfare, José López Rega, who, according to historian Sergio Guerra, also served as a CIA agent.

Following Perón’s death (after which his wife, Estela “Isabel” Martínez, succeeded him as head of government), López Rega acquired enormous power, and between 1974 and 1975, various paramilitary organizations, such as the Argentine Anticommunist Alliance (led by López Rega), murdered and disappeared more than a thousand Argentine activists and political leaders, including Montoneros militants, trade unionists from the Argentine Workers’ Central Union (CTA), and several priests who advocated Liberation Theology (among them, the renowned priest Carlos Mugica).

During those years, thousands of people were fired from their jobs, both in the public and private sectors, as was the case with hundreds of university professors who were forced to leave their positions (many of whom went into exile to save their lives). In addition, there were arbitrary arrests of students, workers, and others, thereby intensifying the repression against the working classes. The most serious case of repression before the dictatorship occurred in the province of Tucumán, where the Army launched an incursion to wipe out the guerrilla forces of the People’s Revolutionary Army (ERP).

During that offensive, the head of the operation, Acdel Vilas, confirmed that he did not obey the law and executed anyone he considered a threat, “including lawyers and judges complicit in subversion… It was then that I gave explicit orders to classify ERP prisoners according to their importance and dangerousness, so that only the harmless ones would be brought before a judge.” The others were killed without trial. Vilas paved the way for extrajudicial killings that would later be employed by the military dictatorship, in which he served in key positions.

It is important to remember that the mechanism of establishing military dictatorships in the South American country was not foreign to the practices of local economic elites. Just before the Cámpora-Perón government, Argentina had emerged from a dictatorship that lasted from 1966 to 1973, which also committed reprehensible acts, such as the Trelew massacre, in which several political prisoners were extrajudicially murdered.

In other words, historically speaking, Argentina’s most powerful economic sectors have always turned to dictatorships to reshape the political landscape when things seemed to be spiraling out of control. They did so with Peronism and radicalism, and they did it again in 1976, as part of a regional offensive against the revolutionary left.

The Cold War in Latin America

The anti-communist fervor, which served as the defining ideology of the Latin American right in the 20th century, called for the destruction, by any means necessary, of any political group that advocated ideas of social transformation. This discourse, openly promoted by US intelligence agencies, encouraged the most reactionary sectors of Latin American societies – thanks to the support of the CIA, the Pentagon, and local militaries – to push for the overthrow of the democratic order and the destruction of left forces most committed to social change.

This is how the infamous “Plan Condor”, sponsored and, according to some historians, organized by the United States, came into effect. The various South American armies coordinated with one another to carry out intelligence operations, the persecution, and the execution of political leaders they considered “dangerous”. Thousands of people would be murdered in the years to come by paramilitary and/or military groups acting under the coordination of dictatorial governments, even though the latter denied any knowledge of their activities. But this strategy of murder, rape, and torture predates the 1970s.

Even before the formalization of Operation Condor, several South American militaries had seized political power and imposed brutal dictatorships. In the 1960s, ruthless anti-communist dictatorships were established through violence in Ecuador, Brazil, Bolivia, and other countries. This pattern continued into the 1970s: the Banzer dictatorship in Bolivia, the Bordaberry dictatorship in Uruguay, the Pinochet dictatorship in Chile, and the military triumvirate in Ecuador, among others, all invoked the supposed justification of curbing any revolutionary potential in these countries.

These operations were radical in nature; that is, the military dictatorships violently annihilated – in violation of human rights – the political groups that advocated for a change in the economic model and true independence from any form of imperialism, especially US imperialism, which controlled the region as “its backyard”, according to the well-known Monroe Doctrine. Hence, the United States’ enormous interest in destroying any possibility of losing influence in the midst of the Cold War. Argentina was no exception.

The development of the coup

Indeed, the United States had information twelve months before the coup took place. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger played a key role in this regard; he served as a vital link between the Latin American military dictatorships and the US government and was a major architect of the implementation of the US National Security Doctrine.

But attempts to undermine the democratic order had begun earlier. On December 18, 1975, several planes strafed the seat of government, the Casa Rosada. The rebellion was largely quelled by Air Force Commander Héctor Fautario, the last high-ranking officer loyal to President Estela “Isabel” Perón and an opponent of Jorge Rafael Videla, who would later become the dictatorship’s supreme leader. Fautario had refused to bomb Tucumán during the offensive against the ERP.

Following the failed coup attempt, Videla issued an ultimatum to President Perón to restore order in the country. The fact that one of the army’s leaders was threatening the president underscored the extremely critical nature of the situation. Once the guerrilla front in Tucumán had been decimated, and with Washington’s approval, a new coup attempt was set in motion – only this time, it would succeed.

President Estela Perón was arrested in the early hours of March 24. She would not be released until five years later. The army quickly assumed executive, legislative, and judicial control of the country and seized all radio and television stations. A statement from the armed forces declared: “As of this date, the country is under the operational control of the Military Junta. All residents are advised to strictly comply with the provisions and directives issued by military, security, or police authorities, as well as to exercise extreme caution in avoiding individual or group actions and attitudes that may require drastic intervention by personnel on duty.” It was signed by the coup leaders: Jorge Videla, Eduardo Massera, and Orlando Agosti.

Martial law, the state of siege, and the constant patrolling of Argentina’s streets were only the prelude to what was to come. A state-led operation – national in scope, premeditated, and institutionalized – began to exert its power over the Argentine civilian population.

March 24, 1976, thus marked the beginning of one of the darkest periods in Argentine history. Today, those who defend the dictatorship’s actions are in the minority, but 50 years after the coup d’état, the narrative of those who (seeking to justify the grave human rights violations Argentina endured) admire the actions of the military coup leaders and their methods is beginning to gain traction.

Argentina, thus, not only remembers what happened, but constantly rediscovers that memory is also an endless, steep, and exhausting battlefield. Despite this, the majority of Argentine society dares to remember and understand how pain is also useful in preventing its repetition. This is a struggle for memory that continues, and whose consequences could well shape Argentina’s future.

Courtesy: Peoples Dispatch