Drowned chicks and food scarcity: Emperor penguin and Antarctic fur seal now endangered
The primary drivers are shrinking sea ice and warming oceans driven by climate change.
The emperor penguin and Antarctic fur seal have been reclassified as ‘Endangered’ on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species.
Climate change in Antarctica is leading to changes in sea ice that are projected to halve the emperor penguin population by the 2080s, while reduced food availability has already driven a 50 per cent reduction in the Antarctic fur seal population since 2000.
“As countries prepare to gather at the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting in May, these assessments provide essential data to inform decisions regarding this majestic continent and its awe-inspiring wildlife,” says Dr Grethel Aguilar, IUCN Director General.
“Antarctica’s role as our planet’s 'frozen guardian' is irreplaceable – offering untold benefits to humans, stabilising the climate and providing refuge to unique wildlife.”
Climate change brings bigger risk of penguin chicks drowning
The emperor penguin has moved from Near Threatened to Endangered on the IUCN Red List, based on projections that its population will halve by the 2080s.
Satellite images indicate a loss of around 10 per cent of the population between 2009 and 2018 alone, equating to more than 20,000 adult penguins.
The primary driver is the early breakup and loss of sea ice, the IUCN says, which has reached record lows since 2016.
Emperor penguins require fast ice – sea ice that is “fastened” to the coastline, ocean floor or grounded icebergs – as habitat for their chicks and during their moulting season, when they are not waterproof.
If the ice breaks up too early, the result can be deadly.
It is challenging to convert observed tragedies – such as the collapse of a breeding colony into the sea before the chicks can swim – into population changes.
But population modelling considering a wide range of future climate scenarios shows that without abrupt and dramatic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, emperor penguin populations will rapidly decline during this century.
“Penguins are already among the most threatened birds on Earth,” says Martin Harper, CEO of BirdLife International, which coordinated the emperor penguin assessment as the authority for birds on the IUCN Red List.
“The emperor penguin’s move to Endangered is a stark warning: climate change is accelerating the extinction crisis before our eyes. Governments must act now to urgently decarbonise our economies.”
Rising ocean temperatures reduce food for Antarctic fur seals
The Antarctic fur seal has moved from Least Concern to Endangered on the IUCN Red List.
Its population has decreased by more than 50 per cent from an estimated 2,187,000 mature seals in 1999 to 944,000 in 2025.
IUCN says the ongoing decline is due to climate change, as rising ocean temperatures and shrinking sea ice are pushing krill to greater ocean depths in search of colder water, reducing the availability of food for seals.
Krill shortages at South Georgia have reduced the survival of pups in their first year dramatically, leading to an ageing breeding population.
Other threats, such as predation by killer whales and leopard seals and competition with recovering baleen whale populations targeting the same krill, are potentially also impacting this declining population.
Avian flu threatens elephant seals
The southern elephant seal has also been reclassified, moving from Least Concern to Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List following declines caused by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI).
There has been a significant increase in the prevalence of avian flu around the world since 2020, and it has spread to mammals. The disease has affected four of the five major subpopulations, killing more than 90 per cent of newborn pups in some colonies and seriously impacting adult females, which spend more time on the beaches than males.
There is growing concern that disease-related mortalities of marine mammals will increase with global warming – particularly in polar regions, where animals have not had much previous exposure to pathogens.
Animals that live close together in colonies, such as southern elephant seals, are particularly hard-hit by diseases.
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