Saturday, April 11, 2026

 

Naphtha shortages leading to petrochemical plants force majeures and record prices

Naphtha shortages leading to petrochemical plants force majeures and record prices
Naphtha is a critical feedstock for petrochemical plants, but shortages have led to some plants in Asia reneging on contracts and sent prices to a record highs. / bne IntelliNews
By Ben Aris in Berlin April 10, 2026

Petrochemical producers across Asia have begun shutting down operations after disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz sharply reduced supplies of naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), two critical feedstocks for the region’s chemical industry.

“Naphtha and LPG are the light end of the refining barrel, and boy, oh, boy, how important their roles are in the world that we live in,” Shanaka Anslem Perera, an independent analyst said, describing the immediate effect of constrained flows on Asia’s petrochemical system.

Indonesia's Chandra Asri (TPIA.JK) has declared force majeure on all contracts while two Japanese buyers, Maruzen Petrochemical and Mitsui Chemical, cancelled second-half April naphtha import tenders, Reuters reports. Pre-war Asia sourced roughly 4mn metric tonnes (36mn barrels) of Middle ​East naphtha monthly.

The disruption drove the benchmark naphtha ​refining margin in Asia to four-year high of about $173 per tonne over Brent crude. Naphtha was trading at $918 per tonne as of April 10, up by 88% YTD.

Some Asian buyers are mulling returning to Russian naphtha, another major supplier, in the worst case scenario. As of early 2026, Russia remains a top global exporter of naphtha, shifting its focus from Europe to Asia and the Middle East, with India and Taiwan as significant, though sometimes fluctuating, key buyers.

Last year between February 2022 and mid-2025, Taiwan became Russia’s biggest buyer, importing over $4.9bn in Russian naphtha, with Formosa Petrochemical the major buyer. This year South Korea's LG Chem (051910.KS) has also significantly stepped up imports from Russia, Reuters reports, after the US eased sanctions on buying Russian oil products in March. South Korea relies on imports to satisfy about 45% of its ‌naphtha demand, three quarters of which used to come from the Gulf.

Russian energy company Novatek is set to increase naphtha exports from its Ust-Luga complex in March to about 550,000 metric tons (t), from 360,000 t in February, market sources said and LSEG data showed.

Rising production in Ust-Luga and easing ice conditions in the Baltic Sea will allow Novatek to boost naphtha exports to Asian markets, where supply challenges due to the Gulf conflict have sent prices to record highs.

The Ust-Luga complex has three processing units with a capacity of 3 metric MMtpy each. It refines stable gas condensate into light and heavy naphtha, jet fuel, fuel oil and gasoil.

Novatek processed about 630,000 t of gas condensate at Ust‑Luga in February, when severe frost and heavy ice caused a shortage of ice‑class tankers, curbing loadings, traders said.

In March so far, processing rates at the Ust-Luga complex have averaged nearly 28,000 tonnes a day and could exceed 850,000 tonnes for the month, market sources added.

Despite sanctions, Russia supplies over one-fifth of the global market, with exports totalling roughly 30–35mn tonnes per annum.

Petchem building block

Naphtha, a light petroleum fraction also known in the industry as Tops, FRN, LVN or HVN, is the primary feedstock used in steam crackers. The process produces olefins including propylene, ethylene and butadiene, which form the basis for a wide range of plastics and chemical products.

“Naphtha is the basic building block for petrochemical plants. You feed naphtha into steam crackers to produce olefins like propylene, ethylene and butadiene, which is then used for downstream petchem products. This is the very starting point of where any of our plastics come from,” Perera said.

Asia relies heavily on Middle Eastern supplies of naptha. It is also used to dilute the super-heavy Venezuela crude that is so viscous it can’t be flowed through pipes like normal oil. About 60% of naphtha imports originate from the Gulf.

The supply squeeze has been compounded by lower refinery utilisation across the region, reducing domestic output of feedstocks. Steam crackers, like refineries, cannot operate at very low utilisation. It’s an all or nothing process.

Several Asian producers have already declared force majeure on petrochemical deliveries as feedstock shortages deepen.

LPG, which can also be used as a cracking feedstock, has provided little relief. Refining systems typically yield only about 1–2% LPG, meaning output falls sharply when refinery runs decline.

“The yield of LPG from the refining kit is only a mere 1–2%, yet imagine needing to turn down the intake and get only 0.5–1% yield. That's a drastic 50% reduction of available supply,” Pereras says.

Governments in major consuming markets have intervened to prioritise household supply. India and the Indonesian government then quickly mandated for maximum LPG to be diverted out from the petchem sector into cooking gas, another common use for LPG, as well as car fuel. The disruption could leave petrochemical plants offline for an extended period even if crude flows recover.

 

Seoul’s missing $7.8bn central bank surplus

Seoul’s missing $7.8bn central bank surplus
/ Greg Schneider - Unsplash
By IntelliNews April 10, 2026

South Korea submitted a KRW26.2trillion ($19.2bn) "war supplementary budget" to the National Assembly that unusually omits surplus funds from the Bank of Korea (BoK), drawing fire from legislative watchdogs on April 9, Chosun Daily reports.

The decision to bypass the central bank’s net profits, which are typically used to bolster state spending or repay debt, marks a significant departure from fiscal norms established over the last two decades. While the government utilised these resources during the previous year's supplementary cycle, their exclusion from the current March 31 proposal has prompted warnings that the administration is "stockpiling ammunition" for a potential second intervention later this year.

The move has raised transparency concerns as the administration appears to be shielding a multi-billion dollar windfall from legislative oversight. By keeping the BoK surplus off the books, the government retains a massive liquid reserve that remains outside the immediate deliberative control of the National Assembly. This strategy represents a subtle but important shift in fiscal priority, moving away from debt reduction toward a state of high-readiness as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to threaten global energy prices and supply chains.

Budget office warnings

The National Assembly Budget Office voiced significant apprehension regarding the funding structure in its "Analysis of the First Additional Budget for 2026." Since 2008, the state has consistently integrated BoK surpluses or previous year carry-overs into supplementary spending plans. However, the current proposal differs from past cases in that excess BoK funds already deposited into the national treasury were not reflected in revenue adjustments.

The National Assembly Budget Office argued the approach fails to align with the intent of Article 17 of the National Finance Act, which stipulates that all income of a fiscal year shall be revenue and all expenditures shall be expenses. Sidestepping this protocol could fundamentally weaken the transparency and efficacy of how the nation manages its purse strings, the report suggested.

"The failure to utilise Bank of Korea surplus funds in this supplementary budget's resources raises concerns about undermining the transparency and efficiency of fiscal management," stated the National Assembly Budget Office on April 9. By withholding these funds from the revenue adjustment process, the government has essentially blocked the National Assembly from deliberating on how to use them—such as repaying additional government bonds or identifying new spending projects.

The scale of the withheld funds is substantial, totalling KRW10.705 trillion ($7.8bn) based on the central bank’s performance last year. This figure significantly overshot initial government projections of KRW6.4191 trillion ($4.34bn). According to Chosun Daily, a robust US dollar was the primary driver for this windfall, contributing an unexpected KRW3.4539 trillion ($2.34bn) to the final tally as the central bank’s foreign exchange-related earnings surged.

Despite having this capital physically present in the national accounts, the Ministry of Planning and Budget has chosen not to earmark it for the current KRW26.2 trillion ($17.72bn) package. In turn, this has led to accusations that the executive branch is effectively "hiding" money in its wallet. Under normal circumstances, these funds would be used to lower the national debt ratio, which has seen significant upward pressure recently. However, by keeping the surplus as a non-tax revenue "reserve," the government maintains a level of flexibility that bypasses the traditional democratic process of fiscal control.

Ministry discretion as tax fears grow

The Ministry of Planning and Budget defended the decision, maintaining that whether to adjust revenue based on BoK surplus funds is entirely at the government’s discretion. Officials pointed toward a volatile economic landscape and the "triple shock" of high interest rates, a weak KRW, and high energy prices as the primary reasons for their caution.

According to The Korea Economic Daily, the ministry is wary of potential tax revenue shortfalls later in the year as global market conditions shift. There is also lingering uncertainty regarding the collection of non-tax revenues, specifically the proceeds from the sale of NXC (the holding company of gaming giant Nexon) tax-in-kind shares. The government acquired these shares as part of an inheritance tax settlement, but the success of such a high-stakes divestment remains speculative. If these shares fail to sell at the anticipated valuation or within the desired timeframe, the government will face a significant budget hole. Consequently, the central bank surplus is being framed by the ministry as a vital "emergency buffer" to protect the state against these multi-faceted financial risks.

Beyond the immediate concerns of tax shortfalls, there is a growing consensus among observers that the administration is "stockpiling ammunition." There are also strong indications that the March 31 budget might not be the last intervention for the year. High-ranking officials have hinted that geopolitical instability in the Middle East, specifically the impact of the conflict involving Iran, could necessitate further fiscal expansion to manage surging oil prices and domestic inflation.

Hong Ik-pyo, Cheong Wa Dae Senior Secretary for Political Affairs, stated after the war supplementary budget was submitted that a second supplementary budget may be needed in 2H26 if the war in the Middle East continues. This sentiment was echoed by Park Hong-keun, the Minister of Planning and Budget, who noted on April 7 that a second additional budget remains a distinct possibility. According to reports from The Straits Times, this expansionary stance marks a hallmark of the current administration’s "pre-emptive response" strategy to protect consumers from the rising cost of living.

A shift from debt reduction to crisis readiness

This strategy represents a shift in fiscal priority. Usually, excess funds are used to pay down national debt, which recently topped $800bn following massive stimulus pushes. However, a researcher from a government-funded research institute noted that the government currently views the BoK surplus as "money already in its wallet." Rather than using these funds to lower the national debt ratio—which Trading Economics models suggest could trend around 49.3% of GDP—the government appears prioritised on maintaining immediate liquidity to handle future shocks.

While this provides the government with a flexible "war chest," it circumvents the traditional democratic process of fiscal control. The National Assembly Budget Office remains firm in its stance that these funds should have been integrated into the formal review process. By doing so, the legislature could have determined if the KRW10.705 trillion ($7.24bn) would be better spent on immediate relief or if it truly needed to be held in reserve.

As the Middle East crisis continues to influence global energy prices and supply chains, the South Korean government’s fiscal conservatism—or strategic hoarding, depending on the perspective—will remain a point of intense political friction. The tension between the executive’s need for "emergency ammunition" and the legislature’s demand for "fiscal transparency" defines the current state of Korea’s 2026 economic policy. For now, the surplus remains untouched, waiting for a potential second wave of economic pressure that many in the administration believe is inevitable. Under this "ammunition" strategy, the government is essentially betting that the cost of transparency today is a price worth paying for the flexibility to act tomorrow.

Falling battery prices make round-the-clock solar power supply viable in India

Falling battery prices make round-the-clock solar power supply viable in India
/ bno IntelliNews
By IntelliNews April 10, 2026

A recent report by energy think tank Ember says that declining battery storage costs have reached a level where it makes it economically viable for solar power to store and supply most of India’s electricity demand. The report says that solar combined with batteries may meet up to 90% of the country’s electricity requirement at competitive costs.

The report, which was published on April 7, says that a major reduction in battery prices over the last two years has significantly changed the dynamics of India’s renewable energy space. The estimated cost of battery storage saw a reduction of almost 40% in 2024 and nearly 31% in 2025. This makes round-the-clock solar power extremely attractive.

The report argues that if solar generation is combined with battery storage, nearly 90% of India’s electricity demand can be fulfilled at a levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of about INR5.06 ($0.055) per kilowatt-hour. This is similar to, or cheaper than, the average power procurement costs in many Indian states.

In order to get to that level of supply, India would require almost 930 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity and 2,560 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery storage. This is equivalent to nearly 4.9 GW of solar and 13.5 GWh of storage capacity per 1 GW of average demand. Even if India achieves this scale, only about 5% of solar generation every year would need to be curtailed due to excess supply.

Ember report says that India’s solar potential is vast and mostly untapped. The country boasts of about 143 GW of installed solar capacity, which represents just a fraction of its estimated 3,343 GW ground-mounted solar potential. This potential alone could generate approximately three times India’s current electricity demand.

To unlock this potential, battery storage will play a significant part because of its intermittency. While solar power output peaks during the day, batteries assist in storing the excess energy, which can be utilised during the evening and night. Ember report highlights that during months with strong sunlight, such as January to April, solar and batteries could meet nearly 100% of daily electricity demand.

However, the main challenge is the monsoon season. During the cloudy months, there would be long periods of low solar output, which would limit the ability of batteries to maintain supply over several consecutive days. In July, which is the peak monsoon month in India, solar and battery systems could meet around 66% of demand due to reduced solar generation. This highlights the need for a diversified energy mix, including wind and hydro, to complement solar during such periods.

At the state level, findings presented by Ember are equally important. The analysis of the ten largest electricity-consuming states shows that solar-plus-battery systems could meet between 83% and 92% of their annual electricity demand. Seven of these states could achieve 90% or more, with Andhra Pradesh leading at 92%, while Uttar Pradesh records the lowest share at 83%.

The report also says that the cost of power generated through solar and batteries is already lower than current procurement costs in several states. In six major states, solar-plus-storage systems are already delivering around 90% of electricity demand, which could be 15% lower than current power purchase costs. The southern state of Karnataka could achieve a cost reduction of 21%, while the western state of Gujarat could see savings of around 7%.

Even if the transmission costs for sourcing solar power from resource-rich regions are taken into consideration, the overall economics remain attractive. Additional costs of around INR1.2 to 1.5 per unit for transmission and losses do not in any major way reduce the competitiveness of solar-plus-battery systems, especially when there exist policy support schemes such as waivers on interstate transmission charges.

The report further highlights the reduction in costs of solar and battery storage, with the increasing costs of power produced through coal. Recent coal power tariffs in India have ranged between INR5 and INR6.3 per unit, driven by higher capital costs, stricter environmental regulations, declining coal quality and operational inefficiencies. In comparison, solar-plus-storage tariffs are typically fixed over the contract period, offering greater price stability and insulation from fuel price volatility.

The recent auctions of solar-plus-storage projects in India have discovered rates that are as low as INR2.9 to INR3.5 per unit for systems with four-hour battery storage. When it comes to a six-hour battery storage project auction, early 2026 saw a tariff of INR3.12 per unit, pointing to a further drop in the future, Ember noted.

The Ember report expects the economics of solar and battery storage to become even more attractive, which may lead to wider deployment. While achieving 100% solar-based electricity would require significantly higher investment, reaching 90% is both technically feasible and economically viable.

According to Ember, the most significant question is no longer whether solar can lead India’s power system, but how fast the system can be scaled up. With significant solar resources, reducing technology costs and supportive policy frameworks, India can easily become a global leader in clean energy, Ember added. This will also reduce the country’s dependence on imported fossil fuels.

Palestine:

Gaza flotillas - stand together, for as long as it takes


Saturday 11 April 2026, by Nico Dix, William Donaura




On Saturday, 4 April, in Marseille’s Vieux-Port, at the foot of the Mucem museum, several hundred people crowded the pier to cheer the 19 humanitarian boats of the flotilla setting sail for Gaza.

Speeches, slogans, music and even a batucada in the colours of Palestine: the fervour and hope were palpable. “Bravo, we’re proud of you,” people shout as boats pass by in front of the jetty.

In l’Estaque, a popular organization

Hope also animated the activists of the flotillas in the morning, at the port of l’Estaque. After months of work on an improvised construction site brought to completion, thanks in particular to the mobilization of the inhabitants of this district of Marseille, the flotillas are finally ready for departure.

“We have already won,” says Nemo, skipper of the Ryoko boat, renamed “the Nour” in tribute to the struggle of Palestinian women. “It’s a victory in the sense that we managed to organize ourselves in a non-hierarchical way, in an autonomous way and we managed to take this place, so it’s a popular victory, because nothing was expected.”

The coalition had contacted several ports, but none had responded, and the shipyard was therefore set up in l’Estaque on the proposal of its inhabitants. There, the preparation of the boats and collective life have worked thanks to self-organisation: “We work in the form of a collective, with centres of skills, centres of desire, centres that make sense for people. And people are invested in it,” explains Nemo.

A multifaceted mobilization

This motivation of all is of course rooted in the continuity of the mobilization for Palestine of the last two years, but it is also found in the political commitment of everyone.

“It is the struggle of all oppressed peoples that is symbolized by the struggle of the Palestinian people,” says Tino, an activist on board and member of the navigation centre. For him, the flotilla “is also a way of mobilizing on land around the Palestinian question and anti-imperialist issues.” He thought that the question of war would be central in the coming years and hoped that the flotilla would allow “a broad and common front against the war.”

Beyond the symbols, Claude Léostic (Association France Palestine Solidarité) reminds us that the genocide is still underway in Gaza and that “this humanitarian flotilla is first and foremost aimed at the Palestinians, to show them that our solidarity is intact.” But for her, this initiative is also aimed at our leaders whose “behaviour is scandalous and illegal.” She describes the flotilla as a citizen pressure to “move the lines”, a message to end our leaders’ complicity with Israel’s genocidal and colonial policies.

“We are trying to put pressure from our workplaces to put an end to partnerships with Israel,” says Linda Sehili, a member of the international committee of the trade union Solidaires. “This flotilla is the continuation of our militant, political and trade union actions. And this is only the beginning; we will have to remobilize everywhere on the territory with collectives for the right to self-determination of Palestinians.”

In the face of genocide, building solidarity

There is indeed an urgent need to remobilize: the new Israeli law on the death penalty for Palestinians and the Yadan law are at the centre of the discussions. A brutalization of Western colonialism, while, as a report by Urgence Palestine and the Palestine Youth Movement has just revealed, “between October 2023 and March 2026, more than 525 shipments of military equipment were shipped by French manufacturers” to Israel.

Faced with these flows of death, the flotilla embodies a flow of solidarity. It carries medical equipment, seeds and fishing boat repair materials. Obviously, the flotilla is not an end in itself. It is an anchor point for the construction of a huge movement of solidarity. This is the challenge for all the activists and all the organizations of this flotilla.

This is what motivates Tino: “The flotilla is a means of action that allows you to regain control of things. Everyone feels very powerless in the face of the situation there. We have to remain humble, we are not going to change the face of the world, but it is a vector of hope.”

L’Anticapitaliste

 

No to war, no to distortion: A critique of ‘limitless unity’ within the anti-Iran war movement


Mitra Mahmoudi

With the shadow of war and devastation continuing to loom over Iranian society, opposing any US or Israeli military intervention is an urgent humanitarian responsibility. There is no justification for bombings, killing civilians or destroying a nation’s infrastructure — this position is a non-negotiable principle.

However, a dangerous distortion is occurring: an attempt to blur political boundaries between the anti-war movement and Islamic Republic supporters in the name of “broad unity”.

Ignoring the reality of symbols

Some have argued that the Islamic Republic’s flag is a neutral symbol and that we should avoid a “flag war” by allowing regime supporters to carry them at anti-war protests. This view turns a blind eye to reality.

For millions of Iranians, this flag is not just a piece of cloth; it is a symbol of a specific socio-political ideology and a reminder of decades of repression, executions, discrimination and structural violence.

One cannot expect victims to stand alongside this symbol and treat it as if it were devoid of meaning. This is not an “emotional” issue — it is about the political and social significance of symbols.

Weakening an independent stance

Without clear political demarcation, the presence of Islamic Republic flags at anti-war protests carries a significant risk: it weakens the independent stance of “No to war, No to dictatorship.”

This intentional ambiguity creates a false impression that Iranians abroad are defending the regime. Such an approach is not just an analytical error but a political retreat.

On the other hand, the solution is not passivity or fragmenting the anti-war movement. A divided movement only serves the interests of pro-war forces.

The third path: Participation with identity

The way forward lies in a “Third Path” based on:

  • Active participation in the anti-war movement;
  • Maintaining a distinct political identity;
  • Echoing a clear and uncompromising message: “No to War, No to the Islamic Republic.”

This approach does not imply unnecessary confrontation or excluding others. Rather, it emphasises maintaining political clarity and refusing to fall into the trap of “false unity”.

Conclusion

A movement’s strength depends not only on its numbers but its ideological clarity and political integrity. A unity built upon erasing truths and denying suffering will be neither sustainable nor liberating.

Today, defending human lives, safeguarding the truth and refusing to ignore the nature of reactionary forces should be three inseparable pillars. Pursuing any one of these without the others will inevitably lead us astray.

Mitra Mahmoudi is an Iranian socialist, political activist and feminist. She is the director of Radio Avaye Zan (Voice of Women) in Sydney, Australia.

 

Opposing Western intervention and the Iranian regime


Women Life Freedom placard

First published in Turkish on the BirGün website. Translations from Socialist Project.

As the United States and Israel escalate their military campaign against Iran, the war is being justified through a familiar vocabulary: security, deterrence, and the elimination of existential threats. Yet beyond official rhetoric, the conflict is also unfolding as a battle over narratives — one shaped by media framing, digital propaganda, and deeply divided political communities.

Among the most striking features of this moment is the fragmentation of the Iranian diaspora. While some voices have openly supported military intervention in the name of “liberation,” others warn that such positions risk legitimizing a destructive external project with long-term consequences for Iranian society. At the same time, attempts to oppose both the Iranian regime and Western intervention are often marginalized, reduced to simplistic binaries that leave little room for nuance.

In this interview, award-winning Iranian-Canadian journalist and producer Samira Mohyeddin offers a critical perspective on the narratives surrounding the war, the role of social media and organized messaging, and the internal contradictions shaping diaspora politics. Drawing on historical context and contemporary developments, she challenges dominant assumptions about Iran, questions the logic of external intervention, and reflects on the political and ethical difficulties of sustaining a principled anti-war position in an increasingly polarized environment.

In his televised address on April 1, Donald Trump defended the war against Iran primarily in terms of security and stability — particularly the need to prevent nuclear escalation and eliminate perceived threats. Similar justifications have appeared across official statements and much of the media coverage. How do you interpret this narrative, and what does it obscure or leave out?

I think the primetime address that Donald Trump gave to the American public was primarily an attempt to sell this war. As you noted, he framed Iran as an imminent threat and emphasized the need to eliminate its nuclear capabilities. But what is consistently missing from media coverage is crucial context.

Back in June, during the 12-day war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran, the US used a weapon it had never deployed before in this context — a 30,000-pound bomb. Following those strikes, Trump himself stated that Iran’s nuclear capabilities had been “obliterated.”

So, the question is: are we really expected to believe that within just a few months, Iran was able to fully recover from that supposed “obliteration” and reconstitute its nuclear program? That claim simply does not hold up.

We know this in part because Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, stated just days after the latest escalation that Iran posed no imminent threat and was not developing a nuclear weapon. According to the IAEA, Iran was not even close to having that capability. Yet this context is largely absent from mainstream coverage.

Instead, what we are seeing is a process of manufacturing consent. The United States and Israel need to justify this war to their domestic audiences — to convince Americans why they should be paying $4 a gallon for gas. When Trump tells Americans that this war is “a great investment” for them, their children, and their grandchildren, it reveals the extent of that effort. Quite frankly, the statements he was making were laughable.

There is also a broader historical dimension that is often overlooked. Iran fought an eight-year war with Iraq — a conflict in which Iraq was backed by major Western powers, including France and Germany. Despite that, Iran did not concede even a small portion of its territory.

What people don’t understand about Iranians is that they will fight to the end. They don’t care how much infrastructure is ruined or anything. They will not give up this war to America and Israel.

Now, this next question is a little bit personal. You have also been the target of online attacks, including from pro-Israel and Zionist voices. More broadly, how do you assess the role of Zionist and pro-Israel advocacy networks and institutions in shaping media narratives about Iran in Canada and other Western contexts?

I think it would be a mistake — and a dangerous one — to dismiss the role that social media has played, both in this specific conflict and over the past decade.

Let me break your question into two parts, because the impact of propaganda directed at Iranians inside the country is crucial to understanding what is happening.

First, Israel operates a significant number of Persian-language social media accounts that are explicitly targeted at Iranians. What kind of messaging are people hearing? They are hearing messages from Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials claiming, “We are coming to rescue you. We are the only country that cares about you.” At times, Netanyahu has even delivered these messages in Persian, including through AI-assisted translation.

Alongside this, there are satellite television channels such as Iran International and Manoto TV, which for decades have pushed and promulgated a certain ideology into the country. So, there is a long-standing ecosystem of messaging that predates the current war.

And then, on the other hand, we know — from outlets like The Times of Israel and Haaretz, Israeli media outlets — that Israel has spent, this year alone, up to $250-million on social media campaigns, including paying influencers $7,000 per post. Netanyahu met with them in New York — we have the photos. These are not conspiracies; these are facts.

And they have really pushed an agenda to try and get Iranians to agree with the dropping of bombs on their heads.

You mentioned the threats I have received. When I look at many of these accounts, they are not real people. They may have two posts, ten followers — clearly inauthentic profiles. But there are so many of these accounts pushing the same messages that people stop asking basic questions: Is this a real person? Or is this a bot?

Instead, a narrative takes hold — that Iranians support the war, that they welcome these attacks. But the reality is far more complex. These campaigns rely precisely on the assumption that most people will not investigate the sources of what they are seeing.

How do you interpret the fact that parts of the Iranian diaspora, including in Canada, frame external military intervention as “liberation”? What does this reveal about diaspora politics, and what consequences might it have for struggles inside Iran?

These are great questions — really excellent questions — because I think, first of all, we are dealing with a very dangerous diaspora.

And I use the word dangerous on purpose, because they are wholly delusional. And they don’t quite understand the impact, which brings me back to the propaganda we were talking about — the effectiveness of the messaging that Israel has directed at Iranians, both inside and outside the country.

Right now, we are seeing members of the diaspora waving Israeli flags, gathering outside embassies, and thanking Donald Trump for what he is doing. Many people excuse this behavior as desperation. I disagree. I don’t think it is desperation.

I think that within parts of the community, there is a mode of thinking that is deeply authoritarian, even fascistic. And there is also a latent form of racism that is rarely acknowledged. What has emerged, in some cases, is a kind of homo-nationalism that is very fascistic at its core.

There is also a recurring idea among some Iranians that they are the exception. You hear statements like: “We are not Syria. We are not Afghanistan. We are not Iraq. We are much more sophisticated.” But what does that imply? It reflects a hierarchy — it reflects racism.

It suggests that, regardless of what external powers such as the United States or Israel want, Iranians somehow stand apart from the rest of the region. We are much more sophisticated than these people.

You also hear figures like Mark Levin saying that people in Iran are “Persian,” that they are “Western,” and that they are not like the rest of the Middle East. And some Iranians internalize and reproduce this message because it offers a sense of distinction or superiority.

A lot of Iranians get angry at me for pointing this out because there’s this idea of airing our dirty laundry in public. But I think it’s really important to call this stuff out because we’re going down a very dangerous road — very, very dangerous.

In your view, why has it become so difficult in public debate — particularly in Canadian and Western public debate — to sustain a position that both opposes Western military/imperalist intervention and critically engages with the Iranian regime? How should such a position be articulated?

It’s hard to maintain this position because it is, quite simply, a messy one.

In the media and in public discourse, there is a tendency to reduce everything to black and white. We operate in binaries. If you are against the Iranian government, then you are expected to support the war. And if you support the war, then you are aligned with Israel and the United States. There is very little room for people who reject both positions — for people like me, and what I believe is actually a silent majority.

People are afraid to speak out. It is not just about holding a principled position — it is about the consequences of doing so. People are attacked, threatened. I receive death threats and racist abuse on a daily basis. I mean, these aren’t imaginary things, right?

To take a principled stance against the decimation of your country’s infrastructure, while also recognizing that the Iranian government is authoritarian and repressive, is a very difficult balance to maintain right now. But it is one I refuse to abandon.

This is not a new phenomenon. For decades, anyone who has opposed war against Iran has been labelled “pro-regime,” accused of being paid or acting on behalf of the state. I myself have been accused of taking money from the Iranian government. It is absurd — it is almost a parody — but it remains a persistent tactic, especially within parts of the diaspora, to discredit dissenting voices.

Even when someone has consistently criticized the authoritarian nature of the Iranian government — as I have, including in publications like The Globe and Mail — it makes little difference. If you are operating within any space that has nuance or exists in shades of grey, you will be labelled as such. And the people who do this are, I’m sorry to say, very ignorant, and I don’t trust them.

There is a Persian expression — hezb-e baad, the “party of the wind” — which describes those who simply follow whichever direction the wind is blowing.

And the wind has shifted. Just a few months ago, it was strongly pro-war. But in recent days, some of those same voices have reversed their positions, as the consequences of the war become more visible.

A lot of people who were pro-war have now completely done a 180 because they’re starting to realize that with every bridge that gets bombed, with every pharmaceutical company that gets bombed, the United States, and Israel are only concerned with decimating the country of Iran.

Decimating its domestic capabilities and creating a servile client state, like they have in Syria — one that Israel can come and bomb from time to time, and that has no ability or capability to protect itself or its citizens.

You have emphasized that meaningful political change in Iran must come from within. Why do external interventions — despite being framed as supportive — tend to undermine that possibility?

There are historical precedents for this — and it has never worked. If you take a long view of Iran’s socio-political history, going back even to the Constitutional Revolution of 1905–1906, you can see that change has often emerged through internal dynamics and transnational connections within the region. People were learning from each other.

For example, in the early 1900s, Iranian women were in contact with women in India who were organizing boycotts of British cotton. Iranian women learned from that and organized boycotts of British sugar and tea. These kinds of regional exchanges were taking place, but they were never welcomed by external powers such as Britain, Russia, or later the United States.

We have also seen the consequences of external intervention elsewhere. Iraq is a clear example. The country has still not recovered from the US invasion and occupation. Do I think Saddam Hussein was a good person? Of course not. But change should have come from within Iraqi society, not through foreign intervention. It is delusional to think that meaningful change in Iran can come from the outside.

If the United States believes it can engineer transformation, we should already have seen evidence of that. We have repeatedly heard figures like Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu call on Iranians to take to the streets. But how do you expect a civilian population to mobilize when 1000kg bombs are falling on them? It is simply not realistic.

What is often forgotten is that internal change has been happening. During the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement in 2022–23, significant social transformations were taking place. These social changes — made by women — were incremental — step by step — but they were real.

More broadly, Iran today is not the same country it was in the 1980s. Despite the constraints of the political system, there have been important advances, particularly driven by society itself. Iranian women, for example, have made substantial gains. Iran ranks among the leading countries in terms of women graduating in STEM fields. And figures like Maryam Mirzakhani — the only woman to have won the Fields Medal — reflect these developments.

These changes have often occurred in spite of the state, not because of it. Yet there is a tendency in public discourse to erase them, to present Iran as a static, unchanging society. That is simply not accurate.

Look, we also need to have a long view of what democracy is. Europe had four or five hundred years to get to where it is today. How many revolutions did France go through before developing the system it has now? And we expect Iranians to catch up in 50 years? How is that possible? It’s impossible.

Iran was never left alone to do what it needed to do in order to make these advances — especially in the last few years. And now, we are going to see everything that Iranians were able to build over the past 50 years start to disappear because of this war.

At this moment — given the intensity of the war, the media environment, and the divisions within the diaspora, including in Canada — what do you see as the most dangerous misconception shaping public understanding of Iran today?

I think one of the most dangerous misconceptions is the idea that all Iranians are in favour of this war. One of the most troubling framings — especially in Western media — is the suggestion that Iranians welcome this war, that it is somehow necessary, or that people are simply helpless and waiting for external forces to intervene.

There is also this implication that Iranians themselves wanted this outcome. This is a very dangerous narrative. It’s very dangerous to say that, and it’s because, you know, as I said, we have this diaspora that, unfortunately, is going through this collective psychosis and delusion that somehow Israel and the United States are coming to help it when all they really want to do is destroy the country.

Samira Mohyeddin is an award-winning Iranian-Canadian journalist and producer. She posts on instagram/smohyeddin.

Baris Karaagac teaches international political economy and economic development at Trent University and researches European social democracy, state theory, and Turkish political economy. He is the editor of Accumulations, Crises, Struggles: Capital and Labour in Contemporary Capitalism (2013).