Alexander Lukashenko tells the Kremlin that unrest could spread to Moscow next if his regime is destabilised
Shaun Walker in Minsk
Sat 15 Aug 2020
Demonstrators at the memorial ceremony for Alexander Taraikovsky, who died during a demonstration last Monday, on the outskirts of Minsk Photograph: EPA
The embattled Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has called on Vladimir Putin to help him quell the growing wave of protest inside the country, which has left his legitimacy in tatters and his regime facing its biggest crisis since he first came to power 26 years ago.
Lukashenko appealed to the Russian president’s visceral fear of revolution at home and suggested that if his regime fell, Putin too was in danger. “This is a threat not just to Belarus … if Belarusians do not hold out, the wave will head over there too,” he said in televised remarks to a meeting of advisers on Saturday, claiming that the protests were organised by shadowy figures from abroad.
“Both sides expressed confidence that all the problems that have arisen will be resolved soon,” said a Kremlin transcript of a phone call between the two men, which took place later on Saturday.
After the call, Lukashenko reportedly told military chiefs that Putin had offered “comprehensive help” to “ensure the security of Belarus”.Belarus
Lukashenko’s words came as protest organisers said they would hold what they believe would be the biggest demonstration in Belarusian history on Sunday, following a week in which events moved with remarkable speed after Lukashenko claimed to have secured 80% of the vote in last Sunday’s presidential election.
His challenger Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who was forced to flee to neighbouring Lithuania last Monday, stood on a platform of organising new and free elections, and won widespread support. Tens of thousands of protesters on Saturday again took over the centre of Minsk, some chanting Tikhanovskaya’s name. Joyous groups cheered, held aloft flowers and flags, and were serenaded by the horns of passing cars, amid a carnival atmosphere that suggested the “revolution” had already been successful.
After horrific violence last week, riot police have left protesters alone since Thursday, but the appeal to Putin, plus a threat that those who continue to come out on to the streets would be “cannon fodder”, suggest that Lukashenko is considering a new crackdown.
At midday on Saturday, thousands gathered at Pushkinskaya, an intersection on the outskirts of Minsk, to pay their respects to Alexander Taraikovsky, who was the first confirmed death of the protest last Monday night. Authorities claim he died when an explosive device went off in his hand, but video and testimony from the scene suggest he was unarmed.
It was hard to believe only five days had passed since the incident, as protesters gathered in the sunshine on Saturday. Despite widespread shock and anger, the mood in the country has somehow become celebratory rather than mournful.
Belarus’s opposition leader, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, was forced to flee to neighbouring Lithuania in the wake of the election result. Photograph: Sergei Gapon/AFP/Getty Images
Andrei Syrokvash, 31, a programmer who was arrested in the early hours of Monday while peacefully walking home with a friend, could not believe his eyes when he was released on Thursday. “All the flags, the way people were just demonstrating without fear, I felt like I had been released into a different country,” he said.
The level of violence was shocking even in a region where the riot police are known for showing little mercy towards political protesters. Many detainees have told of beatings and torture in prisons, and the full horror of what happened at the beginning of last week is still emerging.
One doctor, who asked to remain anonymous, told how she received patients on Tuesday night whose bodies were “covered in blood and bruises, you could see the places where they had been kicked with boots and beaten with batons”. Another doctor said he had seen patients with broken bones, burns and concussion.
Throughout last week, Lukashenko provided a masterclass in how to win an election and lose all legitimacy within the space of a few days. It is possible that if he had acted with more restraint – rigging the vote with a more plausible margin of victory, or crushing the protests but without the systematic sadism – he could now be sailing towards another term of stagnant authoritarianism.
Instead, he is clinging on, and the coalition opposed to him has broadened with extraordinary speed. Columns of protesting teachers and doctors have marched through Minsk in recent days; miners and factory workers have gone on strike along with musicians and IT professionals.
Almost every car passing the demonstration at Pushkinskaya on Saturday honked in support. A young man on a scooter held up flowers; a heavy-set track-suited taxi driver pulled his car closer to the pavement so he could high-five the protesters as he drove by; an elderly woman with a nest of bleached blond hair unexpectedly flashed a victory sign from aboard a bus.
In the regions, too, there have been daily protests. The sudden and dramatic change of mood is mainly down to a recalibration of how life can be lived under an authoritarian leader.
“To be honest, I never thought about politics, I never watched the news, I always enjoyed living in Minsk and never felt threatened,” said Anastasia Ivanova, 29, who works in a beauty salon. She said she has never voted nor attended a protest before Thursday. “But now three of my friends have been beaten up, and I’ve realised that’s not a sustainable position,” she said, as she held up a sign that said “Resign!” at Pushkinskaya.
Friends, do not succumb to euphoria too early!Belamova, social media channel
The police and army remain under Lukashenko’s control but there have even been a few isolated videos from smaller towns that seem to show policemen acting in solidarity with the protesters.
On Friday evening, Lukashenko angrily warned people not go out to the streets, telling them they were being used by shadowy foreign forces as “cannon fodder”, an ominous statement given that he is the man holding the cannon. In the end, though, riot police did not move against protesters outside parliament later in the evening.
As his position looks ever more precarious, it is possible that some ministers or army generals may move against Lukashenko to sacrifice the leader but save the regime. However, analysts find this implausible. “They all owe their positions to Lukashenko. Not one of them is an independent figure, and none of them are able to make an independent decision,” said Alexander Feduta, a political analyst and former presidential aide.
A lot may now depend on Putin. Russia and Belarus are technically part of a “union state”, but Lukashenko has resisted closer integration in recent years and proved a tricky partner for the Kremlin. Still, Putin will be keen to keep Belarus as a strategic ally and not to see street protests win out in yet another neighbouring state.
On Saturday, the mood in Minsk was more akin to a street party after an unfancied national football team qualifies for the World Cup, than to the crucial stage of a revolution that has yet to succeed. Protest organisers have called for everyone to converge on central Minsk at lunchtime on Sunday, in what may be a crunch moment for both the protesters and the regime.
For some, the cheering and celebrations of protesters seem dangerously premature. Belamova, a channel on the mobile app Telegram with half a million subscribers, put out a warning to protesters on Saturday morning: “Friends, do not succumb to euphoria too early! Even though we have set in motion processes that will be irreversible for Lukashenko the tyrant, he is still in power. So it’s early to celebrate. Very early.”
The embattled Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has called on Vladimir Putin to help him quell the growing wave of protest inside the country, which has left his legitimacy in tatters and his regime facing its biggest crisis since he first came to power 26 years ago.
Lukashenko appealed to the Russian president’s visceral fear of revolution at home and suggested that if his regime fell, Putin too was in danger. “This is a threat not just to Belarus … if Belarusians do not hold out, the wave will head over there too,” he said in televised remarks to a meeting of advisers on Saturday, claiming that the protests were organised by shadowy figures from abroad.
“Both sides expressed confidence that all the problems that have arisen will be resolved soon,” said a Kremlin transcript of a phone call between the two men, which took place later on Saturday.
After the call, Lukashenko reportedly told military chiefs that Putin had offered “comprehensive help” to “ensure the security of Belarus”.Belarus
Lukashenko’s words came as protest organisers said they would hold what they believe would be the biggest demonstration in Belarusian history on Sunday, following a week in which events moved with remarkable speed after Lukashenko claimed to have secured 80% of the vote in last Sunday’s presidential election.
His challenger Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who was forced to flee to neighbouring Lithuania last Monday, stood on a platform of organising new and free elections, and won widespread support. Tens of thousands of protesters on Saturday again took over the centre of Minsk, some chanting Tikhanovskaya’s name. Joyous groups cheered, held aloft flowers and flags, and were serenaded by the horns of passing cars, amid a carnival atmosphere that suggested the “revolution” had already been successful.
After horrific violence last week, riot police have left protesters alone since Thursday, but the appeal to Putin, plus a threat that those who continue to come out on to the streets would be “cannon fodder”, suggest that Lukashenko is considering a new crackdown.
At midday on Saturday, thousands gathered at Pushkinskaya, an intersection on the outskirts of Minsk, to pay their respects to Alexander Taraikovsky, who was the first confirmed death of the protest last Monday night. Authorities claim he died when an explosive device went off in his hand, but video and testimony from the scene suggest he was unarmed.
It was hard to believe only five days had passed since the incident, as protesters gathered in the sunshine on Saturday. Despite widespread shock and anger, the mood in the country has somehow become celebratory rather than mournful.
Belarus’s opposition leader, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, was forced to flee to neighbouring Lithuania in the wake of the election result. Photograph: Sergei Gapon/AFP/Getty Images
Andrei Syrokvash, 31, a programmer who was arrested in the early hours of Monday while peacefully walking home with a friend, could not believe his eyes when he was released on Thursday. “All the flags, the way people were just demonstrating without fear, I felt like I had been released into a different country,” he said.
The level of violence was shocking even in a region where the riot police are known for showing little mercy towards political protesters. Many detainees have told of beatings and torture in prisons, and the full horror of what happened at the beginning of last week is still emerging.
One doctor, who asked to remain anonymous, told how she received patients on Tuesday night whose bodies were “covered in blood and bruises, you could see the places where they had been kicked with boots and beaten with batons”. Another doctor said he had seen patients with broken bones, burns and concussion.
Throughout last week, Lukashenko provided a masterclass in how to win an election and lose all legitimacy within the space of a few days. It is possible that if he had acted with more restraint – rigging the vote with a more plausible margin of victory, or crushing the protests but without the systematic sadism – he could now be sailing towards another term of stagnant authoritarianism.
Instead, he is clinging on, and the coalition opposed to him has broadened with extraordinary speed. Columns of protesting teachers and doctors have marched through Minsk in recent days; miners and factory workers have gone on strike along with musicians and IT professionals.
Almost every car passing the demonstration at Pushkinskaya on Saturday honked in support. A young man on a scooter held up flowers; a heavy-set track-suited taxi driver pulled his car closer to the pavement so he could high-five the protesters as he drove by; an elderly woman with a nest of bleached blond hair unexpectedly flashed a victory sign from aboard a bus.
In the regions, too, there have been daily protests. The sudden and dramatic change of mood is mainly down to a recalibration of how life can be lived under an authoritarian leader.
“To be honest, I never thought about politics, I never watched the news, I always enjoyed living in Minsk and never felt threatened,” said Anastasia Ivanova, 29, who works in a beauty salon. She said she has never voted nor attended a protest before Thursday. “But now three of my friends have been beaten up, and I’ve realised that’s not a sustainable position,” she said, as she held up a sign that said “Resign!” at Pushkinskaya.
Friends, do not succumb to euphoria too early!Belamova, social media channel
The police and army remain under Lukashenko’s control but there have even been a few isolated videos from smaller towns that seem to show policemen acting in solidarity with the protesters.
On Friday evening, Lukashenko angrily warned people not go out to the streets, telling them they were being used by shadowy foreign forces as “cannon fodder”, an ominous statement given that he is the man holding the cannon. In the end, though, riot police did not move against protesters outside parliament later in the evening.
As his position looks ever more precarious, it is possible that some ministers or army generals may move against Lukashenko to sacrifice the leader but save the regime. However, analysts find this implausible. “They all owe their positions to Lukashenko. Not one of them is an independent figure, and none of them are able to make an independent decision,” said Alexander Feduta, a political analyst and former presidential aide.
A lot may now depend on Putin. Russia and Belarus are technically part of a “union state”, but Lukashenko has resisted closer integration in recent years and proved a tricky partner for the Kremlin. Still, Putin will be keen to keep Belarus as a strategic ally and not to see street protests win out in yet another neighbouring state.
On Saturday, the mood in Minsk was more akin to a street party after an unfancied national football team qualifies for the World Cup, than to the crucial stage of a revolution that has yet to succeed. Protest organisers have called for everyone to converge on central Minsk at lunchtime on Sunday, in what may be a crunch moment for both the protesters and the regime.
For some, the cheering and celebrations of protesters seem dangerously premature. Belamova, a channel on the mobile app Telegram with half a million subscribers, put out a warning to protesters on Saturday morning: “Friends, do not succumb to euphoria too early! Even though we have set in motion processes that will be irreversible for Lukashenko the tyrant, he is still in power. So it’s early to celebrate. Very early.”
No comments:
Post a Comment