US plans next generation reentry vehicle for its land-based nuclear arsenal to deter China and Russia’s new collective threat
AsiaTimes
APRIL 13, 2023
An LGM-30G Minuteman III ICBM in its silo. Photo: Twitter / Screengrab
The US has unveiled plans for a new reentry vehicle to be mounted on the next generation of the land-based leg of its nuclear triad. The announcement comes amid increased tensions with China and Russia, two of the world’s other leading nuclear powers, at what some see as the outbreak of a New Cold War.
This month, Breaking Defense reported that the US Air Force had started soliciting plans for the Next Generation Reentry Vehicle (NGRV) to be mounted on its new LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), with design objectives requiring increased survivability, lethality and accuracy.
The report states that a reentry vehicle houses a nuclear missile’s warhead. The US Air Force plans to put one warhead on each LGM-35A Sentinel missile in its inventory but could put two or three warheads on each in response to changes in the international security environment.
Breaking Defense notes that the NGRV will be modularly developed using open system architecture and digital engineering to incorporate future warhead designs and countermeasures.
The project follows US efforts to replace its long-serving land-based ICBM. Last April, Asia Times reported on US plans to replace the Cold War-era LGM-30G Minuteman III with the LGM-35A Sentinel. The US aims to complete this modernization effort by 2029, with the latter missile being in service until the 2070s.
In contrast to the LGM-30G Minuteman III, the LGM-35A Sentinel features a modular design and open software architecture, allowing for easy replacement of obsolete components and multiple contractors to compete for system upgrades and improvements such as safety measures, guidance systems and penetration aids.
The LGM-35A Sentinel also allows warhead maintenance with closed silo doors, eliminating a security vulnerability and reducing security detail manpower requirements compared to the LGM-30G Minuteman III.
The LGM-35A Sentinel has improved throw weight compared to the LGM-30G Minuteman III, allowing the former to carry heavier payloads including up to three warheads or increased penetration aids
The US has unveiled plans for a new reentry vehicle to be mounted on the next generation of the land-based leg of its nuclear triad. The announcement comes amid increased tensions with China and Russia, two of the world’s other leading nuclear powers, at what some see as the outbreak of a New Cold War.
This month, Breaking Defense reported that the US Air Force had started soliciting plans for the Next Generation Reentry Vehicle (NGRV) to be mounted on its new LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), with design objectives requiring increased survivability, lethality and accuracy.
The report states that a reentry vehicle houses a nuclear missile’s warhead. The US Air Force plans to put one warhead on each LGM-35A Sentinel missile in its inventory but could put two or three warheads on each in response to changes in the international security environment.
Breaking Defense notes that the NGRV will be modularly developed using open system architecture and digital engineering to incorporate future warhead designs and countermeasures.
The project follows US efforts to replace its long-serving land-based ICBM. Last April, Asia Times reported on US plans to replace the Cold War-era LGM-30G Minuteman III with the LGM-35A Sentinel. The US aims to complete this modernization effort by 2029, with the latter missile being in service until the 2070s.
In contrast to the LGM-30G Minuteman III, the LGM-35A Sentinel features a modular design and open software architecture, allowing for easy replacement of obsolete components and multiple contractors to compete for system upgrades and improvements such as safety measures, guidance systems and penetration aids.
The LGM-35A Sentinel also allows warhead maintenance with closed silo doors, eliminating a security vulnerability and reducing security detail manpower requirements compared to the LGM-30G Minuteman III.
The LGM-35A Sentinel has improved throw weight compared to the LGM-30G Minuteman III, allowing the former to carry heavier payloads including up to three warheads or increased penetration aids
.
An unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile launches during an operational test at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California.
Photo: US Air Force / Senior Airman Ian Dudley
That ICBM upgrade project underscores the enduring importance of the US land-based nuclear arsenal. Given that, Todd Harrison, in a 2017 Center for Strategic and International Studies report, notes that ground-launched ICBMs serve two main roles in the US nuclear triad.
First, Harrison mentions that ground-launched ICBMs act as a “missile sponge” to draw incoming enemy missiles, saying that an adversary must spend at least one missile to neutralize geographically-dispersed targets in a pre-emptive strike, increasing the missile numbers and scale needed for such an attack to be successful.
Second, Harrison says that land-based ICBMs provide a first-strike capability because, unlike nuclear weapons on aircraft and submarines, nearly all are always on alert and can launch within minutes.
But despite the strategic importance of the US land-based nuclear arsenal, it is in dire need of modernization. In a September 2022 article for Time, W J Hennigan reported that the US land-based nuclear arsenal built around the LGM-30G Minuteman III still uses vintage components from the 1960s, struggles with obsolete command and control equipment, is housed in dilapidated infrastructure and faces increasingly difficult and expensive maintenance.
Despite these challenges, Hennigan mentions that a land-based nuclear arsenal is critical for the US to maintain strategic deterrence against China, North Korea and Russia.
Although he says critics point out that US air and sea-based nuclear weapons are more than enough to deter potential adversaries, land-based nuclear missile silos are tempting targets for an enemy nuclear attack as an accident in one of those facilities can result in a nuclear catastrophe.
Still, the enduring need for the US to maintain its strategic deterrent posture against evolving nuclear threats from near-peer adversaries and to reassure its allies has prompted US nuclear arsenal modernization efforts.
A Sino-Russian nuclear concert could tip the global balance of nuclear weapons away from the US. Last month, Asia Times reported on Russia’s plans to provide fast breeder reactor technology to China, which could allow it to produce more plutonium for its nuclear arsenal expansion.
Russia’s nuclear energy exports, which have surged since its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, have given it a lifeline to compensate for lost energy and weapons sales revenues.
It also shows that Russia has set aside long-term concerns about China’s long-term threat in its Far East and signifies Russia’s increased desire for cooperation with China.
The possible upsizing of China’s nuclear arsenal from 400 warheads today to 700, coupled with more diverse delivery systems such as stealth bombers, road-and-rail mobile launchers and ballistic missile submarines, gives China a credible second-strike capability, options for limited theater-level nuclear strikes and the means to brandish nuclear weapons coercively.
Given that, the US, for the first time in its history, is squaring off against two nuclear-armed near-peer adversaries, making it imperative to modernize its nuclear arsenal.
That ICBM upgrade project underscores the enduring importance of the US land-based nuclear arsenal. Given that, Todd Harrison, in a 2017 Center for Strategic and International Studies report, notes that ground-launched ICBMs serve two main roles in the US nuclear triad.
First, Harrison mentions that ground-launched ICBMs act as a “missile sponge” to draw incoming enemy missiles, saying that an adversary must spend at least one missile to neutralize geographically-dispersed targets in a pre-emptive strike, increasing the missile numbers and scale needed for such an attack to be successful.
Second, Harrison says that land-based ICBMs provide a first-strike capability because, unlike nuclear weapons on aircraft and submarines, nearly all are always on alert and can launch within minutes.
But despite the strategic importance of the US land-based nuclear arsenal, it is in dire need of modernization. In a September 2022 article for Time, W J Hennigan reported that the US land-based nuclear arsenal built around the LGM-30G Minuteman III still uses vintage components from the 1960s, struggles with obsolete command and control equipment, is housed in dilapidated infrastructure and faces increasingly difficult and expensive maintenance.
Despite these challenges, Hennigan mentions that a land-based nuclear arsenal is critical for the US to maintain strategic deterrence against China, North Korea and Russia.
Although he says critics point out that US air and sea-based nuclear weapons are more than enough to deter potential adversaries, land-based nuclear missile silos are tempting targets for an enemy nuclear attack as an accident in one of those facilities can result in a nuclear catastrophe.
Still, the enduring need for the US to maintain its strategic deterrent posture against evolving nuclear threats from near-peer adversaries and to reassure its allies has prompted US nuclear arsenal modernization efforts.
A Sino-Russian nuclear concert could tip the global balance of nuclear weapons away from the US. Last month, Asia Times reported on Russia’s plans to provide fast breeder reactor technology to China, which could allow it to produce more plutonium for its nuclear arsenal expansion.
Russia’s nuclear energy exports, which have surged since its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, have given it a lifeline to compensate for lost energy and weapons sales revenues.
It also shows that Russia has set aside long-term concerns about China’s long-term threat in its Far East and signifies Russia’s increased desire for cooperation with China.
The possible upsizing of China’s nuclear arsenal from 400 warheads today to 700, coupled with more diverse delivery systems such as stealth bombers, road-and-rail mobile launchers and ballistic missile submarines, gives China a credible second-strike capability, options for limited theater-level nuclear strikes and the means to brandish nuclear weapons coercively.
Given that, the US, for the first time in its history, is squaring off against two nuclear-armed near-peer adversaries, making it imperative to modernize its nuclear arsenal.
An intercontinental ballistic missile at a military parade in Moscow, May 9, 2017.
Photo: TASS / Valery Sharifulin
A 2023 study by the Center for Global Security Research mentions that China and Russia are bound by hostility to US-led global and regional orders and are resolved to bring about their end, with both having large nuclear arsenals and new ideas for using them to break US alliances and sap US political will to defend its interests.
The report also mentions that China and Russia’s use of nuclear brinksmanship and blackmail threatens the US and its allies. US allies’ dependence on nuclear weapons for strategic deterrence has increased steadily over the last two decades, making it imperative that US nuclear security guarantees remain credible.
It also mentions a potential Sino-Russian nuclear concert, underscoring concerns that the US may not be able to deter China and Russia at the same time, noting that while the US may be preoccupied with one near-peer nuclear adversary, the other may choose to act in a limited manner against US interests, exploiting America’s distraction and playing up the threat of using nuclear weapons as strategic cover for its actions.
A 2023 study by the Center for Global Security Research mentions that China and Russia are bound by hostility to US-led global and regional orders and are resolved to bring about their end, with both having large nuclear arsenals and new ideas for using them to break US alliances and sap US political will to defend its interests.
The report also mentions that China and Russia’s use of nuclear brinksmanship and blackmail threatens the US and its allies. US allies’ dependence on nuclear weapons for strategic deterrence has increased steadily over the last two decades, making it imperative that US nuclear security guarantees remain credible.
It also mentions a potential Sino-Russian nuclear concert, underscoring concerns that the US may not be able to deter China and Russia at the same time, noting that while the US may be preoccupied with one near-peer nuclear adversary, the other may choose to act in a limited manner against US interests, exploiting America’s distraction and playing up the threat of using nuclear weapons as strategic cover for its actions.
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