WWIII IS M.A.D.
Russian Duma to vote next week on scrapping ratification of nuclear test ban treaty
Thu, October 12, 2023
By Mark Trevelyan
(Reuters) -Russia's parliament will vote next week on withdrawing Moscow's ratification of the global treaty that bans nuclear tests, lawmakers said on Thursday.
At a time of acute tension with the West over Russia's war in Ukraine, the move could provide Moscow with legal cover to conduct a test involving a nuclear explosion for the first time since 1990, even though it says it has no such intention.
Parliament's lower house, the State Duma, said it would hold a first reading on the bill next Tuesday. Leonid Slutsky, head of the Duma's international affairs committee, said he expected it to complete its passage two days later.
All 450 members of the Duma would sponsor the motion, Slutsky said, a sign that its unanimous approval is guaranteed. He said Russia would then notify the United Nations Secretary-General of the move.
Russia ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 2000; the United States has signed but never ratified it. The Duma is acting on a cue from President Vladimir Putin, who said last week that the point of de-ratifying would be to "mirror" the U.S. position.
Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said: "For 23 years we have been waiting for Washington to ratify the treaty. What is this? Double standards, meanness and an irresponsible attitude. There is no other name for it.
"In this situation, we must be guided exclusively by the interests of the citizens of our country, our state."
MILITARY POSTURE
Russia has placed repeated emphasis on the role of nuclear weapons in its military posture, at a time when its conventional forces have struggled in Ukraine.
Its shift on the CTBT follows its suspension earlier this year of the New START treaty that limits the number of Russian and U.S. nuclear warheads, another key pillar of nuclear arms control in the 21st century.
While nudging the Duma to implement the CTBT move, Putin said last week he was not ready to say whether Russia should actually resume tests involving nuclear explosions.
A test could dramatically escalate tensions with the West, already at their highest levels for 60 years because of the war in Ukraine, and prompt the United States, China and others to resume their own tests for the first time this century, security analysts say.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov accused the United States on Tuesday of carrying out preparations at its nuclear test site in Nevada, but said Russia would not resume testing unless Washington did.
The State Department rejected his allegation as "a disturbing effort by Moscow to heighten nuclear risks and raise tensions in the context of its illegal war in Ukraine".
(Editing by Gareth Jones)
NATO will hold a major nuclear exercise next week as Russia plans to pull out of a test ban treaty
By Mark Trevelyan
(Reuters) -Russia's parliament will vote next week on withdrawing Moscow's ratification of the global treaty that bans nuclear tests, lawmakers said on Thursday.
At a time of acute tension with the West over Russia's war in Ukraine, the move could provide Moscow with legal cover to conduct a test involving a nuclear explosion for the first time since 1990, even though it says it has no such intention.
Parliament's lower house, the State Duma, said it would hold a first reading on the bill next Tuesday. Leonid Slutsky, head of the Duma's international affairs committee, said he expected it to complete its passage two days later.
All 450 members of the Duma would sponsor the motion, Slutsky said, a sign that its unanimous approval is guaranteed. He said Russia would then notify the United Nations Secretary-General of the move.
Russia ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 2000; the United States has signed but never ratified it. The Duma is acting on a cue from President Vladimir Putin, who said last week that the point of de-ratifying would be to "mirror" the U.S. position.
Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said: "For 23 years we have been waiting for Washington to ratify the treaty. What is this? Double standards, meanness and an irresponsible attitude. There is no other name for it.
"In this situation, we must be guided exclusively by the interests of the citizens of our country, our state."
MILITARY POSTURE
Russia has placed repeated emphasis on the role of nuclear weapons in its military posture, at a time when its conventional forces have struggled in Ukraine.
Its shift on the CTBT follows its suspension earlier this year of the New START treaty that limits the number of Russian and U.S. nuclear warheads, another key pillar of nuclear arms control in the 21st century.
While nudging the Duma to implement the CTBT move, Putin said last week he was not ready to say whether Russia should actually resume tests involving nuclear explosions.
A test could dramatically escalate tensions with the West, already at their highest levels for 60 years because of the war in Ukraine, and prompt the United States, China and others to resume their own tests for the first time this century, security analysts say.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov accused the United States on Tuesday of carrying out preparations at its nuclear test site in Nevada, but said Russia would not resume testing unless Washington did.
The State Department rejected his allegation as "a disturbing effort by Moscow to heighten nuclear risks and raise tensions in the context of its illegal war in Ukraine".
(Editing by Gareth Jones)
NATO will hold a major nuclear exercise next week as Russia plans to pull out of a test ban treaty
LORNE COOK
Updated Thu, October 12, 2023
Belgium NATO Defense ministers and ambassadors pose for a group photo during a meeting of NATO defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Thursday, Oct. 12, 2023.
(AP Photo/Virginia Mayo)
BRUSSELS (AP) — NATO will hold a major nuclear exercise next week, the alliance's chief said Thursday, an announcement that came after Russia warned it would pull out of a global nuclear test ban agreement.
NATO's “Steadfast Noon” exercise is held annually and runs for about a week. It involves fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear warheads but does not involve any live bombs. Conventional jets and surveillance and refueling aircraft also routinely take part.
“This is a routine training event that happens every October,” Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said. “This year, the training will take place over Italy, Croatia and the Mediterranean Sea.”
He said the exercise will help ensure the "credibility, effectiveness and security of our nuclear deterrent, and it sends a clear message that NATO will protect and defend all allies.”
The exercise is scheduled to run from Monday until Oct. 26. It will involve 13 NATO allies and a mix of aircraft types, including advanced fighter jets and U.S. B-52 bombers that will fly in from the United States. The bulk of the training is held at least 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) from Russia’s borders.
Stoltenberg said Russia’s war on Ukraine is a reminder of the important role that NATO’s nuclear weapons play in deterring aggression.
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, adopted in 1996 and known as the CTBT, bans all nuclear explosions anywhere in the world, although it has never fully entered into force. It was signed by both the Russian and U.S. presidents but was never ratified by the United States.
On Tuesday, a top Russian diplomat said that Moscow would pull out of the treaty to put itself on par with the United States but would only resume nuclear tests if Washington does it first.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters that Russia will rescind its ratification to “mirror” the action by the U.S. He warned that in the case of a U.S. nuclear test, “we will be forced to mirror that as well.”
On Wednesday, Stoltenberg said the move “demonstrates Russia’s lack of respect, and the continued disregard for its international commitments.” He added: “This is reckless and endangers the global norms against a nuclear explosive testing.”
Stoltenberg said the NATO allies have no plans to start testing again. He accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of trying “to use this nuclear rhetoric to prevent NATO allies from supporting Ukraine, but he will not succeed, because again it is in our security interest that Ukraine prevails.”
NATO does not possess atomic weapons; as an organization, it owns no weapons of any kind, only its individual members do. Three allied nations — the United States, the United Kingdom and France — are nuclear powers.
NATO to hold nuclear exercises as Russia plans to withdraw from test ban treaty
Li Luo
Thu, October 12, 2023
NATO will conduct a major exercise involving fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear warheads, though live bombs will not be involved in the drill, the alliance said on Oct. 12.
The alliance’s Steadfast Noon exercise is held each year and involves nuclear-capable aircraft, conventional jets, surveillance and refueling aircraft, and will involve over a dozen NATO allies.
The drills are scheduled for next Monday and are expected to continue until Oct. 26. Steadfast Noon will enhance the “credibility, effectiveness and security of our nuclear deterrent, and it sends a clear message that NATO will protect and defend all allies,” said Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during an alliance conference.
President Volodymyr Zelensky met with NATO leaders on Oct. 11 who reassured Kyiv that military aid will continue as the war-torn country braces for winter.
Russia is expected to withdraw from the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which was adopted in 1996 and designed to govern nuclear testing, but never fully entered into force.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters on Oct. 10 that in the event of a U.S. nuclear test, Moscow “will be forced to mirror that as well.”
US must be ready for simultaneous wars with China, Russia, report says
BRUSSELS (AP) — NATO will hold a major nuclear exercise next week, the alliance's chief said Thursday, an announcement that came after Russia warned it would pull out of a global nuclear test ban agreement.
NATO's “Steadfast Noon” exercise is held annually and runs for about a week. It involves fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear warheads but does not involve any live bombs. Conventional jets and surveillance and refueling aircraft also routinely take part.
“This is a routine training event that happens every October,” Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said. “This year, the training will take place over Italy, Croatia and the Mediterranean Sea.”
He said the exercise will help ensure the "credibility, effectiveness and security of our nuclear deterrent, and it sends a clear message that NATO will protect and defend all allies.”
The exercise is scheduled to run from Monday until Oct. 26. It will involve 13 NATO allies and a mix of aircraft types, including advanced fighter jets and U.S. B-52 bombers that will fly in from the United States. The bulk of the training is held at least 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) from Russia’s borders.
Stoltenberg said Russia’s war on Ukraine is a reminder of the important role that NATO’s nuclear weapons play in deterring aggression.
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, adopted in 1996 and known as the CTBT, bans all nuclear explosions anywhere in the world, although it has never fully entered into force. It was signed by both the Russian and U.S. presidents but was never ratified by the United States.
On Tuesday, a top Russian diplomat said that Moscow would pull out of the treaty to put itself on par with the United States but would only resume nuclear tests if Washington does it first.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters that Russia will rescind its ratification to “mirror” the action by the U.S. He warned that in the case of a U.S. nuclear test, “we will be forced to mirror that as well.”
On Wednesday, Stoltenberg said the move “demonstrates Russia’s lack of respect, and the continued disregard for its international commitments.” He added: “This is reckless and endangers the global norms against a nuclear explosive testing.”
Stoltenberg said the NATO allies have no plans to start testing again. He accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of trying “to use this nuclear rhetoric to prevent NATO allies from supporting Ukraine, but he will not succeed, because again it is in our security interest that Ukraine prevails.”
NATO does not possess atomic weapons; as an organization, it owns no weapons of any kind, only its individual members do. Three allied nations — the United States, the United Kingdom and France — are nuclear powers.
NATO to hold nuclear exercises as Russia plans to withdraw from test ban treaty
Li Luo
Thu, October 12, 2023
NATO will conduct a major exercise involving fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear warheads, though live bombs will not be involved in the drill, the alliance said on Oct. 12.
The alliance’s Steadfast Noon exercise is held each year and involves nuclear-capable aircraft, conventional jets, surveillance and refueling aircraft, and will involve over a dozen NATO allies.
The drills are scheduled for next Monday and are expected to continue until Oct. 26. Steadfast Noon will enhance the “credibility, effectiveness and security of our nuclear deterrent, and it sends a clear message that NATO will protect and defend all allies,” said Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during an alliance conference.
President Volodymyr Zelensky met with NATO leaders on Oct. 11 who reassured Kyiv that military aid will continue as the war-torn country braces for winter.
Russia is expected to withdraw from the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which was adopted in 1996 and designed to govern nuclear testing, but never fully entered into force.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters on Oct. 10 that in the event of a U.S. nuclear test, Moscow “will be forced to mirror that as well.”
US must be ready for simultaneous wars with China, Russia, report says
Updated Thu, October 12, 2023
An unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base
By Jonathan Landay
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States must prepare for possible simultaneous wars with Russia and China by expanding its conventional forces, strengthening alliances and enhancing its nuclear weapons modernization program, a congressionally appointed bipartisan panel said on Thursday.
The report from the Strategic Posture Commission comes amid tensions with China over Taiwan and other issues and worsening frictions with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
A senior official involved in the report declined to say if the panel's intelligence briefings showed any Chinese and Russian nuclear weapons cooperation.
"We worry ... there may be ultimate coordination between them in some way, which gets us to this two-war construct," the official said on condition of anonymity.
The findings would upend current U.S. national security strategy calling for winning one conflict while deterring another and require huge defense spending increases with uncertain congressional support.
"We do recognize budget realities, but we also believe the nation must make these investments," the Democratic chair, Madelyn Creedon, a former deputy head of the agency that oversees U.S. nuclear weapons, and the vice chair, Jon Kyl, a retired Republican senator, said in the report's preface.
Addressing a briefing held to release the report, Kyl said the president and Congress must "take the case to the American people" that higher defense spending is a small price to pay "to hopefully preclude" a possible nuclear war involving the United States, China and Russia.
The report contrasts with U.S. President Joe Biden's position that the current U.S. nuclear arsenal is sufficient to deter the combined forces of Russia and China.
The arsenal's makeup "still exceeds what is necessary to hold a sufficient number of adversary targets at risk so as to deter enemy nuclear attack," the Arms Control Association advocacy group said in response to the report.
"The United States and its allies must be ready to deter and defeat both adversaries simultaneously," the Strategic Posture Commission said. "The U.S.-led international order and the values it upholds are at risk from the Chinese and Russian authoritarian regimes."
Congress in 2022 created the panel of six Democrats and six Republicans to assess long-term threats to the United States and recommend changes in U.S. conventional and nuclear forces.
The panel accepted a Pentagon forecast that China's rapid nuclear arsenal expansion likely will give it 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035, confronting the United States with a second major nuclear-armed rival for the first time.
The Chinese and Russian threats will become acute in the 2027-2035 timeframe so "decisions need to be made now in order for the nation to be prepared," said the 145-page report.
The report said the 30-year U.S. nuclear arms modernization program, which began in 2010 and was estimated in 2017 to cost around $400 billion by 2046, must be fully funded to upgrade all warheads, delivery systems and infrastructure on schedule.
Other recommendations included deploying more tactical nuclear weapons in Asia and Europe, developing plans to deploy some or all reserve U.S. nuclear warheads, and production of more B-21 stealth bombers and new Columbia-class nuclear submarines beyond the numbers now planned.
The panel also called for boosting the "size, type, and posture" of U.S. and allied conventional forces. If such measures are not taken, the United States "will likely" have to increase its reliance on nuclear weapons, the report said.
(Reporting by Jonathan Landay; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)
U.S. Is Not Ready for Growing Nuclear Threat From Russia and China, Report Says
Mathias Hammer
Thu, October 12, 2023
The US military tests unarmed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at Vandenberg Air Force Base on May 3, 2017. Credit - Ringo Chiu–AFP/Getty Images
As Russia and China continue to expand their nuclear arsenals, the U.S. is unprepared for the prospect of facing two nuclear equals for the first time, a new bipartisan Congressional report warns. The report describes the growing threat from Russia and China, and calls for a dramatic overhaul of America’s nuclear arsenal and strategic posture.
"It is an existential challenge for which the United States is ill-prepared, unless its leaders make decisions now," the report says.
“It is apparent from the report that there is much more that we should be doing to ensure our military, and particularly our nuclear forces, are capable of deterring two near-peer nuclear adversaries at the same time,” Roger Wicker, a top Republican on the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services, said in a statement following the report's release.
The 145-page assessment, laid out in a report released on Thursday by the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, was led by a group of leading bipartisan nuclear experts and is the result of a year-long effort.
More From TIME
For Republicans, the report is likely to be used as political ammunition against President Joe Biden. “The Administration's stated and preferred policies really have not measured up to the really dangerous times that we're living in,” one Republican aide tells TIME, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the contents of the report prior to its release.
Thu, October 12, 2023
The US military tests unarmed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at Vandenberg Air Force Base on May 3, 2017. Credit - Ringo Chiu–AFP/Getty Images
As Russia and China continue to expand their nuclear arsenals, the U.S. is unprepared for the prospect of facing two nuclear equals for the first time, a new bipartisan Congressional report warns. The report describes the growing threat from Russia and China, and calls for a dramatic overhaul of America’s nuclear arsenal and strategic posture.
"It is an existential challenge for which the United States is ill-prepared, unless its leaders make decisions now," the report says.
“It is apparent from the report that there is much more that we should be doing to ensure our military, and particularly our nuclear forces, are capable of deterring two near-peer nuclear adversaries at the same time,” Roger Wicker, a top Republican on the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services, said in a statement following the report's release.
The 145-page assessment, laid out in a report released on Thursday by the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, was led by a group of leading bipartisan nuclear experts and is the result of a year-long effort.
More From TIME
For Republicans, the report is likely to be used as political ammunition against President Joe Biden. “The Administration's stated and preferred policies really have not measured up to the really dangerous times that we're living in,” one Republican aide tells TIME, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the contents of the report prior to its release.
China will reach parity with the U.S. in deployed nuclear warheads by the mid-2030s if it continues expanding its nuclear arsenal at current rates, the report warns. On top of that, Russia will likely continue to be the largest nuclear force in the world. The U.S. has an estimated stockpile of 3,708 nuclear warheads, while Russia has more than 4,000, according to reports by the Federation of American Scientists, a U.S.-based think-tank. China’s estimated stockpile includes about 410 nuclear warheads, according to FAS.
While the report focuses heavily on a worst-case scenario of coordinated Russian and Chinese aggression, Ankit Panda, a nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says that the commission has focused too singularly on this threat. This should "be better borne out by the evidence we've seen of how Moscow and Beijing cooperate in crises," he says, adding: “the other thing here is if the prescriptions are followed, the United States, I think, is very likely to find itself in a new arms race.”
The Biden Administration has sought to tamp down on fears of facing two major nuclear adversaries. “The United States does not need to increase our nuclear forces to outnumber the combined total of our competitors in order to successfully deter them,” Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said in June. Sullivan also said that the U.S.’s advanced non-nuclear weaponry will likely remain far more capable than its rivals'.
Some experts tell TIME that the existing initiatives to upgrade the U.S.'s nuclear arsenal—at an estimated cost of over $1 trillion over the next three decades—are already sufficient for national security purposes. “My priority would not be on going beyond the current modernization plan,” says Lynn Rusten, vice president for the Nuclear Threat Initiative think-tank's Global Nuclear Policy Program.
Rusten says her priority “would be just having a sensible deterrent, pursuing diplomacy to keep Russia under limits, have a dialogue with China to understand what they're doing, and seeing if we can stop what could become a nuclear arms race in the Asia-Pacific.”
Securing funds for the modernization program has at times been a challenge. “Now, you know, funds get authorized but they don't get appropriated,” says Rose Gottemoeller, one of the commissioners of the report and former Deputy Secretary General of NATO. “It's very important that Congress stay focused on the funding that's required.”
In addition to speeding up the modernization program, the report calls for increasing weapons production including B-21 stealth bombers and intercontinental missiles, and expanding the country’s nuclear weapons industrial base to upgrade 1940s-era Manhattan Project facilities.
“While it requires significant investment to maintain a strategic posture sufficient to prevent war with a major power, it will be far more expensive, in lives and resources, to fight such a war,” the report says.
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