March 9, 2026
By Sadegh Pashm-Foroush
March 8, 2026 marked the ninth day of the escalating military conflict between the Iranian regime, Israel, and the United States. On the eighth day of the war, 80 Israeli fighter jets carried out massive overnight bombardments targeting military sites across Tehran.
While the regime’s President Masoud Pezeshkian issued an apology to neighboring countries regarding missile strikes originating from Iran, other regime entities and officials quickly contradicted his statements. US President Donald Trump warned of “complete destruction” if the regime did not alter its behavior. Concurrently, the regime has been grappling with a severe internal power vacuum following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting emergency meetings of the Assembly of Experts.
Roundup of today’s key events
New regime leader reportedly selected: Members of the Assembly of Experts claim a successor to Ali Khamenei has been chosen, though the regime’s foreign minister publicly contradicted this, stating no one knows the successor yet.
Oil facilities bombarded: Israeli airstrikes hit multiple fuel storage and distribution sites in Tehran and Alborz provinces, causing blackened skies, “oil rain,” and leaving four dead.
Gulf nations targeted: The regime launched fresh drone and missile attacks on Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE, resulting in structural damage and civilian casualties, including the first reported deaths in Saudi Arabia.
US warns Iranian civilians: US Central Command urged civilians to stay away from military launch sites in densely populated cities like Dezful, Isfahan, and Shiraz, which the regime is using as human shields.
Trump dismisses regime threats: US President Donald Trump brushed off threats from the Iranian regime, signaling that strikes will intensify.
Massive strikes on oil infrastructure and ‘black rain’ in Tehran
Over the weekend, Israel launched a fresh wave of attacks specifically targeting the Iranian regime’s energy resources. According to Vis Karami, the managing director of the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company, all distribution and transfer facilities in the Tehran and Alborz provinces were targeted and damaged, including sites in Shahran, Aghdasieh, and Fardis, Karaj. The state-run Student News Network (SNN) reported that four people were killed during the bombardment of the refineries and oil depots in Tehran and Alborz.
The heavy bombardment resulted in massive plumes of smoke visible from miles away, completely darkening the skies over the capital on Sunday morning, March 8. CNN correspondents in Tehran reported the phenomenon of “oil rain,” as blackened rainwater covered the city in soot.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright clarified that the United States has “no plans” to target the regime’s oil or natural gas industries, noting that the strikes on local fuel depots were conducted solely by Israel.
Internal crisis and contradictory claims over leadership succession
Following the death of supreme leader Ali Khamenei, the regime’s internal factions are showing deep fragmentation over his succession. Ahmad Alamolhoda, the regime’s Friday prayer leader in Mashhad, stated that the election for the leadership has been completed and the new leader has been determined, adding that Hosseini Bushehri is responsible for making the public announcement. Heidari, another member of the Assembly of Experts, echoed this, telling state-run Khabar Online that the “most qualified option” has been chosen and that “the enemy has mentioned his name.”
However, the regime’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi contradicted these statements on Sunday. Speaking on NBC’s “Meet The Press,” Araghchi claimed “nobody knows” who the next supreme leader will be and dismissed the claims as rumors, stating the 88-member Assembly of Experts must still convene to vote. Araghchi also responded to US President Donald Trump, rejecting any interference or demands for unconditional surrender, claiming the regime will continue to act in “self-defense.”
Regime’s strikes on Gulf nations cause casualties and destruction
Despite Pezeshkian’s recent apologies, the Iranian regime continues to terrorize neighboring countries in the Persian Gulf. Kuwait’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that 234 missiles and 422 drones have been detected since the outbreak of the conflict last week. Drone strikes caused fires at a government tower and Kuwait International Airport over the past 24 hours. The Kuwaiti Ministry of Interior reported casualties including a young girl, two military personnel, and two border guards.
Saudi Arabia reported its first deaths since the war began after a military projectile hit a residential compound in the Al-Kharj governorate, killing an Indian and a Bangladeshi national, and injuring 12 others.
Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates asserted its right to self-defense against “brutal and unjustified Iranian aggression.” The UAE’s Ministry of Defense reported intercepting a massive barrage over the past week, including 1,422 drones, 8 cruise missiles, and 238 ballistic missiles from Iran. In Bahrain, a drone attack damaged a desalination plant, and previous reports indicated a worker was killed by falling debris.
US military warns civilians as regime uses populated areas for attacks
As the war rages, US Central Command (CENTCOM) issued an urgent warning to the Iranian people, urging them to stay home and away from military installations. The US military accused the Iranian regime of knowingly putting its citizens at risk by using heavily populated civilian areas—specifically naming Dezful, Isfahan, and Shiraz—to launch attack drones and ballistic missiles.
CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper stated, “Iran’s terrorist regime is blatantly disregarding civilian lives.” US officials stressed that locations used for military purposes lose their protected status under international law and become legitimate military targets.
Regional fallout and regime’s defiant rhetoric
Regime President Masoud Pezeshkian claimed on Sunday, “We stand with power against those who attack our country, and we will respond with power,” adding that the enemy has “naive” misconceptions.
Internationally, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, calling for de-escalation “at any cost” to prevent further disruption to global trade and to restore a ceasefire. The human cost across the region continues to climb; the Lebanese Health Ministry reported today that nearly 400 people have been killed in Israeli strikes targeting Hezbollah since the campaign began.
Sadegh Pashm-Foroush writes for PMOI/MEK
One week into Iran war, the dangers for the US and Trump multiply
One week into the US-Israeli war against Iran that has plunged the Middle East into turmoil, President Donald Trump faces a growing list of risks and challenges that raise questions about whether he will be able to translate military successes into a clear geopolitical win.
Issued on: 08/03/2026 - RFI
MAGA support holding, for now
Despite criticism from some Trump supporters opposed to military interventions, members of his Make America Great Again movement have largely backed him on Iran so far.
But any softening of their support could imperil Republicans’ control of Congress in the November midterm elections, given opinion polls showing opposition to the war among the broader electorate, including a crucial bloc of independent voters.
“The American people are not interested in repeating the mistakes of Iraq and Afghanistan,” said Brian Darling, a Republican strategist. “The MAGA base is split between those who relied on no-new-war promises and ones who are loyal to Trump’s judgment.”
High on the list of analysts’ concerns is the mixed messaging from Trump and his aides on whether he is seeking “regime change” in Tehran.
At the outset of the conflict, he suggested that overthrowing Iran’s rulers was a goal, at least by fomenting internal rebellion. Two days later, he stopped short of mentioning that as a priority.
But then on Thursday, Trump told Reuters he would play a role in picking Iran’s next leader and encouraged Iranian Kurdish rebels to launch attacks. That was followed by his demand in a social media post on Friday for Iran’s "unconditional surrender."
Across the region, the dangers have escalated with Iran's retaliatory strikes on Israel and other neighbors as it seeks to sow chaos and raise the costs for Israel, the US and its allies.
Showing that Iran may still be able to activate proxy groups, Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia has renewed hostilities with Israel, expanding the war to another country.
American casualties have been low so far, with six service members killed, and Trump has largely shrugged off the prospects for more to come while declining to completely rule out deployment of US ground troops.
Asked whether Americans should worry about Iran-inspired attacks at home, Trump said in a Time magazine interview published on Friday: “I guess … Like I said, some people will die.”
But Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy US national intelligence officer for the Middle East, said: “Nothing is likely to hasten an early end to the war more than American casualties … That’s what Iran is counting on.”
One week into the US-Israeli war against Iran that has plunged the Middle East into turmoil, President Donald Trump faces a growing list of risks and challenges that raise questions about whether he will be able to translate military successes into a clear geopolitical win.
Issued on: 08/03/2026 - RFI
US President Donald Trump and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio attend a roundtable discussion in the East Room of the White House on 6 March, 2026, in Washington DC, USA. Getty Images via AFP - ANNA MONEYMAKER
Even after the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and devastating blows against Iranian forces on land, at sea and in the air, the crisis has quickly widened into a regional conflict that threatens a more prolonged US military engagement with fallout beyond Trump’s control.
That is a scenario that Trump had avoided in his two terms in the White House, preferring swift, limited operations like the January 3 lightning raid in Venezuela and June’s one-off strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.
“Iran is a messy and potentially protracted military campaign,” said Laura Blumenfeld of the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies in Washington. “Trump is risking the global economy, regional stability and his own Republican Party's performance in the US midterm elections.”
Trump, who came to office promising to keep the US out of "stupid” military interventions, is now pursuing what many experts see as an open-ended war of choice unprompted by any imminent threat to the US from Iran, despite claims to the contrary by the president and his aides.
In doing so, analysts say he has struggled to articulate a detailed set of objectives or a clear endgame for Operation Epic Fury, the biggest US military operation since the 2003 Iraq invasion, offering shifting rationales for the war and definitions of what would constitute victory.
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly rejected that assessment, saying Trump has clearly outlined his goals to "destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, demolish their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.”
However, if the war drags on, American casualties mount and the economic costs of interrupted Gulf oil flows multiply, Trump’s biggest foreign policy gamble could also hurt his Republican Party politically.
Even after the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and devastating blows against Iranian forces on land, at sea and in the air, the crisis has quickly widened into a regional conflict that threatens a more prolonged US military engagement with fallout beyond Trump’s control.
That is a scenario that Trump had avoided in his two terms in the White House, preferring swift, limited operations like the January 3 lightning raid in Venezuela and June’s one-off strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.
“Iran is a messy and potentially protracted military campaign,” said Laura Blumenfeld of the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies in Washington. “Trump is risking the global economy, regional stability and his own Republican Party's performance in the US midterm elections.”
Trump, who came to office promising to keep the US out of "stupid” military interventions, is now pursuing what many experts see as an open-ended war of choice unprompted by any imminent threat to the US from Iran, despite claims to the contrary by the president and his aides.
In doing so, analysts say he has struggled to articulate a detailed set of objectives or a clear endgame for Operation Epic Fury, the biggest US military operation since the 2003 Iraq invasion, offering shifting rationales for the war and definitions of what would constitute victory.
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly rejected that assessment, saying Trump has clearly outlined his goals to "destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, demolish their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.”
However, if the war drags on, American casualties mount and the economic costs of interrupted Gulf oil flows multiply, Trump’s biggest foreign policy gamble could also hurt his Republican Party politically.
IAEA finds no evidence of hits on Iran nuclear facilities, urges restraint
MAGA support holding, for now
Despite criticism from some Trump supporters opposed to military interventions, members of his Make America Great Again movement have largely backed him on Iran so far.
But any softening of their support could imperil Republicans’ control of Congress in the November midterm elections, given opinion polls showing opposition to the war among the broader electorate, including a crucial bloc of independent voters.
“The American people are not interested in repeating the mistakes of Iraq and Afghanistan,” said Brian Darling, a Republican strategist. “The MAGA base is split between those who relied on no-new-war promises and ones who are loyal to Trump’s judgment.”
High on the list of analysts’ concerns is the mixed messaging from Trump and his aides on whether he is seeking “regime change” in Tehran.
At the outset of the conflict, he suggested that overthrowing Iran’s rulers was a goal, at least by fomenting internal rebellion. Two days later, he stopped short of mentioning that as a priority.
But then on Thursday, Trump told Reuters he would play a role in picking Iran’s next leader and encouraged Iranian Kurdish rebels to launch attacks. That was followed by his demand in a social media post on Friday for Iran’s "unconditional surrender."
Across the region, the dangers have escalated with Iran's retaliatory strikes on Israel and other neighbors as it seeks to sow chaos and raise the costs for Israel, the US and its allies.
Showing that Iran may still be able to activate proxy groups, Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia has renewed hostilities with Israel, expanding the war to another country.
American casualties have been low so far, with six service members killed, and Trump has largely shrugged off the prospects for more to come while declining to completely rule out deployment of US ground troops.
Asked whether Americans should worry about Iran-inspired attacks at home, Trump said in a Time magazine interview published on Friday: “I guess … Like I said, some people will die.”
But Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy US national intelligence officer for the Middle East, said: “Nothing is likely to hasten an early end to the war more than American casualties … That’s what Iran is counting on.”
US President Donald Trump speaks at a press briefing at the White House, in Washington, DC, USA, on 20 February, 2026. REUTERS - Jonathan Ernst
Venezuela miscalculation?
Many analysts believe Trump, who has shown an increasing appetite for military action in his second term, miscalculated that the Iran campaign would unfold like the Venezuela operation earlier this year.
US special forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, opening the way for Trump to coerce more compliant former loyalists into giving him considerable sway over the country’s vast oil reserves – without any extended US military action needed.
By contrast, Iran has proved a much tougher, better-armed foe with an entrenched clerical and security establishment.
Even the joint US-Israeli "decapitation" strike that killed Khamenei and some other senior leaders has failed so far to prevent Iran from mounting a military response and has raised questions whether they could be replaced by even more hardline figures.
Looming over the conflict, however, is whether Iran could slide into chaos and break apart if its current rulers fall, further destabilizing the Middle East.
Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a nonprofit research institute considered hawkish on Iran, praised Trump’s overall war strategy but said the president needs to make clear publicly that he does not want to see the country disintegrate.
Oil chokepoint
For now, however, one of the most pressing concerns is Iran’s threat to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which a fifth of the world's oil passes. Tanker traffic has halted, which could have grave economic consequences if it lasts.
Though Trump has publicly dismissed any concern about already-rising US gas prices, he and his aides have scrambled for ways to mitigate the war’s impact on energy supplies as voters tell pollsters that the cost of living is their top concern.
“It's an economic pain point on the US economy that it seems was not fully anticipated," said Josh Lipsky at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.
One former US military official close to the US administration said the widening of the war's economic impact had caught Trump’s team by surprise in part because those with knowledge of oil markets were not consulted ahead of the attack on Iran.
The White House's Kelly said, “The Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed" but did not specifically address concerns about preparations for a war.
Trump made his decision to press ahead with the strikes despite warnings from some senior aides that the escalation could be difficult to contain, according to two White House officials and a Republican close to the administration.
Some traditional US allies were caught off guard. "It's a decision-making circle of one," said one Western diplomat.
The war’s duration is a major unknown likely to determine the extent of its repercussions. With the price tag of the Iran campaign mounting by the day, Trump has said that the operation could last four or five weeks or “whatever it takes” but has offered little explanation of what he envisions will follow.
Retired US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and formerly commanded the US Army in Europe, commended the US military for its tactics in Iran. But he told Reuters: "From a political, strategic and diplomatic standpoint, it seems not to have been thought all the way through.”
Trump also has a lot riding on helping oil-producing Gulf Arab states weather the Iran crisis given they have long hosted US bases and have made pledges of massive new US investments to him.
While Gulf allies appear to have fallen in line to support the campaign, especially after Tehran targeted them with missile and drone strikes, not everyone in the region is onboard with Trump’s war.
In an open letter to Trump published on Thursday, UAE billionaire Khalaf Al Habtor, a frequent visitor to Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, asked: "Who gave you the right to turn our region into a battlefield?"
(Reuters)
Venezuela miscalculation?
Many analysts believe Trump, who has shown an increasing appetite for military action in his second term, miscalculated that the Iran campaign would unfold like the Venezuela operation earlier this year.
US special forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, opening the way for Trump to coerce more compliant former loyalists into giving him considerable sway over the country’s vast oil reserves – without any extended US military action needed.
By contrast, Iran has proved a much tougher, better-armed foe with an entrenched clerical and security establishment.
Even the joint US-Israeli "decapitation" strike that killed Khamenei and some other senior leaders has failed so far to prevent Iran from mounting a military response and has raised questions whether they could be replaced by even more hardline figures.
Looming over the conflict, however, is whether Iran could slide into chaos and break apart if its current rulers fall, further destabilizing the Middle East.
Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a nonprofit research institute considered hawkish on Iran, praised Trump’s overall war strategy but said the president needs to make clear publicly that he does not want to see the country disintegrate.
Oil chokepoint
For now, however, one of the most pressing concerns is Iran’s threat to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which a fifth of the world's oil passes. Tanker traffic has halted, which could have grave economic consequences if it lasts.
Though Trump has publicly dismissed any concern about already-rising US gas prices, he and his aides have scrambled for ways to mitigate the war’s impact on energy supplies as voters tell pollsters that the cost of living is their top concern.
“It's an economic pain point on the US economy that it seems was not fully anticipated," said Josh Lipsky at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.
One former US military official close to the US administration said the widening of the war's economic impact had caught Trump’s team by surprise in part because those with knowledge of oil markets were not consulted ahead of the attack on Iran.
The White House's Kelly said, “The Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed" but did not specifically address concerns about preparations for a war.
Trump made his decision to press ahead with the strikes despite warnings from some senior aides that the escalation could be difficult to contain, according to two White House officials and a Republican close to the administration.
Some traditional US allies were caught off guard. "It's a decision-making circle of one," said one Western diplomat.
The war’s duration is a major unknown likely to determine the extent of its repercussions. With the price tag of the Iran campaign mounting by the day, Trump has said that the operation could last four or five weeks or “whatever it takes” but has offered little explanation of what he envisions will follow.
Retired US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and formerly commanded the US Army in Europe, commended the US military for its tactics in Iran. But he told Reuters: "From a political, strategic and diplomatic standpoint, it seems not to have been thought all the way through.”
Trump also has a lot riding on helping oil-producing Gulf Arab states weather the Iran crisis given they have long hosted US bases and have made pledges of massive new US investments to him.
While Gulf allies appear to have fallen in line to support the campaign, especially after Tehran targeted them with missile and drone strikes, not everyone in the region is onboard with Trump’s war.
In an open letter to Trump published on Thursday, UAE billionaire Khalaf Al Habtor, a frequent visitor to Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, asked: "Who gave you the right to turn our region into a battlefield?"
(Reuters)
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