PATRIARCHY; FEMICIDE, MYSOGYNY 

Papua New Guinea fails to end ‘evil’ of sorcery-related violence

Brutal torture and assault of women accused of witchcraft go unpunished while initiatives to end crime make little progress.

Papua New Guinea continues to see cases of women accused of sorcery

 and subjected to brutal torture 

[Courtesy of Dickson Tanda]

By Ian Neubauer
Published On 16 Aug 2022

Reports of machete-wielding men slashing innocent bystanders, arson attacks, sexual violence against girls, and the displacement of thousands of people during last month’s election in Papua New Guinea have drawn international condemnation.

But an even more insidious form of violence continues to plague the country: sorcery-accusation-related violence (SARV), the public torture and murder of women accused of witchcraft.

The most recent high-profile case followed the unexplained death, most probably from a heart attack or stroke, of trucking magnate Jacob Luke while bushwalking in Enga, a rugged, poorly-developed province in the highlands of Papua New Guinea, whose body was discovered by telecommunication workers on July 21.

The following morning, members of Luke’s tribe at Lakolam village in Enga Province singled out nine women, including two in their sixties and one who was pregnant, and accused them of ‘kaikai lewa’ – secretly removing the victim’s heart and eating it to gain their virility.

After one of the women admitted to the allegation because she was so scared, the group was splashed with petrol and burned.

Five of the women were then singled out for torture which consisted of being tied naked between two poles and assaulted vaginally with hot irons while being watched by a mostly male crowd that also included some children and members of the victims’ families.

When news of the torture spread through the province, six police officers and a layman representative of the Catholic Church travelled to Lakolam village to rescue the women. But after a tense standoff involving hundreds of angry armed villagers convinced beyond doubt of the women’s guilt, police backed off.

A second attempt the following day also failed, but police later managed to rescue five of the women. The others had already died.

“They were tortured from Friday morning until midnight and lost a lot of body tissue and blood, so only five of them survived. They were giving off a bad smell from their wounds when we met them,” Dickson Tanda, the Catholic Church’s SARV coordinator in Enga, told Al Jazeera.

Dickson, who has helped rescue more than 600 women and children accused of sorcery since 2015, says witch-hunting in the province is becoming more barbaric and more frequent. “That rescue was last weekend,” he said on August 2. “This weekend just past we rescued another woman accused of sorcery. They tortured her, cut her with a machete all over her body and burned her skin off.”

Horrifying trends

Research from the Australian National University (ANU) published in 2020 found the attention on witchcraft and the torture and killing of women alleged to be involved in sorcery was “not only warranted but also urgent considering the apparent increase in number and the brutality with which the witch hunters operate”.

In a paper published a year earlier, the same authors found it was “very clear it is entering new geographical areas” like Enga, where they had found no records of such attacks taking place before 2010

.

After torturing those accused of sorcery, the perpetrators burn down the homes and evict them from the village [Courtesy of Dickson Tanda]

Enga Province police chief George Kakas agrees.

“In the past, the violence here was culturally oriented. We fought over land and property, pigs and women” he told Al Jazeera. “But now it is changing in the modern era. We see trends like robberies, rape and accusations of sorcery because the youths are confused.”

Another clear pattern that has emerged is the impunity enjoyed by those who carry out SARV attacks on women.

An ANU study published in 2017 found just 91 out of 15,000 perpetrators had been imprisoned for their crimes.

A follow-up study published 12 months later found that in 2018 some 121 individuals were given harsh sentences for SARV violence in relation to six cases of wilful murder.

In all those cases, the victims were men.

The researchers concluded misogyny was a factor not just in SARV itself but in the response to the crimes.

“Notably the gender trend in these judgements we have observed earlier continues, in that all the victims of these cases were men, suggesting that cases involving male victims are more likely to proceed,” the authors concluded.

Kakas says the problem of impunity begins with police, who are poorly resourced and educated, but also because few witnesses are willing to take the risk of helping law enforcement when there is no form of witness protection in Papua New Guinea.

“In the most recent case, no arrests have been made. We went into the village looking for suspects, but they had decamped. We asked the leaders of the village to surrender them but as several of them are also implicated in the atrocities committed, they did not cooperate. And we have no evidence because not a single person in the village is willing to be an eyewitness to the torture and murders as they fear for their own lives,” Kakas said.

“Another problem is many policemen don’t take these events too seriously. I remember one case where I sent two officers to arrest some people involved in torture and instead they started interrogating the victims, pressuring them to confess they were sorcerers. I had them disciplined but they got off the charges,” he said.


Kakas says he can recall only one case in the past eight years where someone accused of a sorcery-related attack was successfully prosecuted and sentenced in his jurisdiction.
‘Just evil’

Various initiatives have been introduced to stamp out the violence, but none has been successful.

A victim of SARV is treated for their wounds [Courtesy of Dickson Tanda]

In 2015, the government announced the Sorcery National Action Plan (SNAP), a holistic initiative focusing on counselling, awareness, health advocacy, protection and research, but which had no solid targets.

Then there was Inap Nau! (Enough Now!), a 2018 campaign by Oxfam that looked at the problem from a gender-based perspective. Some 70 percent of women in Papua New Guinea experience rape or assault in their lifetime.

The Prime Minister’s Office in Papua New Guinea did not respond to Al Jazeera’s enquiries about the apparent failure of SNAP, while Oxfam PNG said it did not have time to respond to questions about Inap Nau! at “short notice”.

Kakas, who set up an anti-sorcery unit in 2016 within the police force to carry out awareness programmes and arrest offenders, says he knows why the initiatives did not work.

“Whenever there is a big case like this one there is a public outcry and some money is put into tackling the problem,” he said. “But when the hype fades, the funding disappears.”


A Catholic priest with the missionary Society of the Divine Word and a Professor of Social Research at Divine Word University in Papua New Guinea, Philip Gibbs, corroborates the claim.

“The government was supposed to fund the Sorcery National Action Plan, but that never happened,” Gibbs was reported as saying by The National newspaper in the capital Port Moresby last week.

Anton Lutz, an activist in sorcery-related crimes who has rescued several women and children from torture, accuses church groups of seeding the violence.

About 96 percent of people in Papua New Guinea identify as Christians, according to government statistics, while many combine their Christian faith with traditional Indigenous beliefs like animism and sorcery.

“The Catholic Church is one of the few actively fighting it. They have strong leaders who have excommunicated individuals and entire congregations that have aided and abetted torture, and they run some safe houses for survivors,” he told Al Jazeera.

“Other church denominations are neutral while others are complicit with preachers who actually advocate the violence. Many Christians are told that demons are real and that it is therefore plausible that there are evil people in the community who do Satan’s bidding. I think it goes back to their theology, where they believe in incarnate spiritual evil, which makes it hard to take a stance against witch-hunting because they could be accused of defending witches.”

Tanda, who in addition to rescuing women runs a privately-funded safe house for victims, is beyond trying to figure out the causes of sorcery-accusation-related violence or why it continues to be tolerated in Papua New Guinea.

“I don’t know. [The perpetrators] are just evil,” he said.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA

NO CHEMICAL-PROOF PPE
Women working inside an Afghan chemical lab face uncertain future

At a fertiliser plant in Afghanistan’s north, women work to support their families amid changes after Taliban’s return.

Women working as lab technicians in a factory in northern Afghanistan support their families as the country's economic crisis deepens [Kern Hendricks/Al Jazeera]

By Kern Hendricks
Published On 19 Aug 2022

Mazar-i-Sharif, Afghanistan – Arzoo Noori holds two glass vials, carefully pouring a clear liquid from one to the other. As she holds one beaker up to the light of the window, swirling it slowly, the solution begins to turn a shade of translucent pink.

In the high-ceilinged room behind her, Noori and six of her colleagues – all women clad in spotless white laboratory coats and latex gloves – make notes on clipboards, adjust bunsen burners, and handle antiquated-looking measuring devices. Amidst the delicate clinking of glassware and the scribble of pencils, the room has an air of calm, quiet productivity.

Noori, aged 30, is a lab technician at Afghanistan’s largest chemical plant, located outside the northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif in Balkh province. Slight of build and softly spoken, she exudes an air of confident professionalism as she moves between workbenches, deftly measuring out chemicals from bottles with peeling Russian labels.

The factory, which produces urea fertiliser for Afghanistan’s agricultural sector, is a vestige of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989. Today the fertiliser comes packaged in freshly designed bags marked: Product of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Towering above lush green fields, the factory smokestacks, cooling towers, and rusting industrial facades are a stark contrast to the simple, single-story mudbrick homes that dot the surrounding landscape.

The factory on the outskirts of Mazar-i-Sharif in Afghanistan’s north dates back to the Soviet occupation starting in the late 1970s [Kern Hendricks/Al Jazeera]

Noori began working at the factory when she was 23 years old after graduating with a bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering from Balkh University. She started as a lab assistant and quickly worked her way up to become manager of the entire urea production laboratory. It was a position that she studied hard for and was proud to earn.

Yet soon after the Taliban retook control of the country last August, Noori was stripped of her role and the female staff were separated from their male colleagues.

On an afternoon in March, Noori, engrossed in her work, is for the moment less interested in talking about these changes than in explaining the test that she and her colleagues are conducting.

“This is a test to assess the pH balance of the water we use here at the factory,” she says without looking up from the beaker in front of her. “It’s a simple task – we only have to add a few chemicals to the water – but if we don’t monitor the pH balance, other processes in the factory will be affected.” Noori – one of nearly 200 women working in the factory – takes immense pride in her work. She knows she is a vital part of the factory.

But now, working under the supervision of a man far less qualified than herself, Noori and many of her female colleagues wonder what the future holds for them – and for their careers – in the Taliban’s Afghanistan.

Settling ponds are used as part of the factory’s water purification process 

[Kern Hendricks/Al Jazeera]

Changes to women’s jobs

One year since the Taliban regained full control of Afghanistan, the country remains in a fragile and impoverished state despite significant improvements to security.

Climate change is wreaking havoc across the country – Afghanistan faces its worst drought in 27 years, and now has the highest level of emergency food insecurity of any nation on earth. A recent World Food Programme report projected that 22.8 million Afghans – roughly half of the country – faces severe food insecurity in 2022. Hundreds of thousands of families are now entirely reliant on the food provided by NGOs and the United Nations.

Battered by the lasting effects of conflict, climate change, and international sanctions, Afghans also struggle to find any means of consistent income. Women have been hardest hit, with female employment expected to fall by 28 percent this year, according to the United Nations International Labour Organization.

Against the backdrop of a humanitarian and economic crisis, the rights of Afghan women have also begun to erode. Many girls’ high schools around the country remain closed, locking thousands out of an education that seemed within their grasp only 12 months ago.

Across the country, many women, particularly those working outside the healthcare and education sectors, have lost their jobs, and now find themselves unable to secure any form of employment. Some remain at home simply out of fear of interacting with the Taliban. Others continue to attend their jobs but find their workplaces are now gender-segregated. Demonstrations in support of women’s rights have, on several occasions, been violently repressed, and many women remain fearful that advocating for their rights will result in harassment, arrest, or worse.

Noori and her colleagues at the factory live in one of Afghanistan’s least socially conservative cities and many of the women of Noori’s generation had some access to education and families who encouraged them to pursue their own careers as independent women. But when the Taliban returned to power in 2021, several of Noori’s older female colleagues worried that they might be barred from working at the state-owned plant.

Zia Omar has worked at the plant for 35 years. When the Taliban were previously in power, she was forced to stop working [Kern Hendricks/Al Jazeera]

Previous Taliban rule

Zia Omar, 50, has worked as a lab technician at the factory for 35 years. Like many women of her generation at the factory, she was hired and trained by the Soviets during their decade-long occupation. A gentle woman with a ready laugh, Omar wears a pink hijab draped loosely over her hair and shoulders. With decades of experience, she can easily hold a conversation as she carries out her tasks.

Omar says that she was forced to stop working under the previous Taliban government from 1996 to 2001. “They didn’t allow any women to work in the factory,” she says. “For almost six years I was stuck at home with no job.”

When her husband’s wage as an engineer at the factory proved too small to support the whole family, Omar decided she could contribute from home. She bought a sewing machine and spent the rest of the Taliban’s first rule tailoring clothes which her husband would then sell in the local bazaar.

After living and working through multiple upheavals and authorities, one thing is clear to Omar.

“I am tired of war,” she says, with a mix of sadness and anger. “I just want peace and stability for my country, I don’t think that’s too much to ask.”

Under the new Taliban government, the plant’s workplace at first stayed the same and men and women kept working alongside one another. “My male colleagues treated me like a sister or a daughter and everyone was very professional and respectful,” says Noori.

Bags of urea are filled at the urea plant in Balkh province.

 The fertiliser is made from ammonia and carbon dioxide 

[Kern Hendricks/Al Jazeera]

Then about three months after the Taliban retook the country, representatives from the Ministry for Propagation of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice came to the factory, Noori recalls.

At the mention of this infamous ministry – known for administering brutal punishments including lashings and beatings for playing music, watching films, and other “morality” infractions under the previous Taliban government – her colleagues in the lab exchange nervous glances, but Noori does not miss a beat.

“They said that it was not appropriate for a woman to be in charge of the lab, to be managing other staff,” says Noori softly. “So they removed me from my position as lab manager and installed a man instead. Technically he doesn’t have the same job title that I did, but practically he’s in charge now.”

Gender segregation was implemented across the offices and laboratories, preventing women from accessing some parts of the factory.

Arzoo Noori, aged 30, conducts a water-quality test in the lab where she was formerly a manager [Kern Hendricks/Al Jazeera]

‘That job is my right’

Although Noori’s work has remained largely the same – she still manages the day-to-day logistics of the lab – she no longer receives the pay or recognition she worked so hard to earn.

While Noori is frustrated by her downgraded role, it is her replacement’s qualifications – rather than his gender – that bothers her the most. “He’s a civil engineer, not a chemical engineer,” she says, throwing up her hands. “This is a chemical laboratory – he doesn’t have the right credentials. I have a degree in chemical engineering, and I sat special exams just to get that job. I earned it through hard work – that job is my right.” Working at their benches, the other women nod in agreement.

Earning less money also has serious repercussions in a country gripped by an economic crisis. Noori gestures out the window towards the city in the distance. “I’m responsible for all four members of my family,” she says. “My mother is dead, my father is retired, and my sister studies political science at university, so I’m the only one earning money for all of us.”

Under a programme implemented by the government headed by former President Ashraf Ghani, some skilled professionals and government employees were offered subsidised boosts to their monthly salary based on their level of higher education.

Noori says that when the Taliban took control of wage distribution for the factory workers, her bonuses disappeared. “Under the previous government, I used to receive a monthly bonus of 2,000 afghanis (about $22) because I graduated high school and also hold a bachelor’s degree,” she says.

Noori also worries that cuts to these bonuses remove incentives for the next generation of women to seek higher education. “If someone with no education earns the same as someone with a bachelor’s degree, why would anyone bother?”

Even though her wage is higher than most Afghans, things are still tight. “I used to earn 11,000 afghanis (about $124) per month, but now I only receive 9,000 afghanis ($100).” She turns her palms towards the sky. “That doesn’t go very far between five people. Food, clothing; we have to count every afghani now. And basic items are getting more expensive all the time.”

Shayma Momin been working at the factory for more than 35 years. 

‘I’m proud to support my family with what I do,’ she says 

[Kern Hendricks/Al Jazeera]

‘Focus on food and water’

Lab technician Shayma Momin, 52, furrows her brow as she delicately adjusts the dial on a Soviet-era pH meter, following the machine’s wavering indicator needle with concentration. As she spins the dial further, a few gold bracelets jangle at her wrist.

Momin has worked at the factory for more than 35 years, and, like Zia Omar was trained in her work by chemical engineers from the former USSR. She says that keeping her family afloat is an increasingly difficult task. Momin lives with her husband – a retired electrical engineer – along with two of her sons, her stepdaughter, and several grandchildren.

Momin is, like many of the other women at the factory, the sole earner for her household.

“My husband is retired, my daughters are married, and there is no one else to work except me,” she says. “My sons are graduated from university but they are jobless. One of my sons is married and has children but he is jobless too. It’s hard, but we survive.”

She says they do not buy new clothes, shoes or any “needless things”, adding that “we just focus on food and water.”

Momin’s husband, who used to work at the factory, used to receive a pension because of his decades of service. But now, under the new government, that is gone too, victim to cost-cutting measures.

Still, she remains optimistic. “People in Afghanistan are jobless right now,” she says, shaking her head. “I feel lucky to have my work here at the factory. It’s not easy, but I’m proud to support my family with what I do.”

Momin’s colleague Omar, is relieved about one change in particular.

“There was fighting between the previous government forces and the Taliban all around the factory, and our homes, for a long time,” she says.

“Even before the Taliban took control of the province, they had already taken control of this area. When they came, they took the area without violence,” she says, referring to the outskirts of the city where the factory is located. “I’m glad that the fighting is over now.”

Much of the lab equipment is a holdover from the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan

LONG PAST ITS BEST BEFORE DATE

[Kern Hendricks/Al Jazeera]

‘Many women have stopped’

The women in the lab count themselves lucky to be able to continue working. But elsewhere in Afghanistan, others have not been so fortunate.

Before last August, Razia Omar, 30, worked as a social activist promoting women’s rights and access to education in Qalat, the capital of Zabul province in Afghanistan’s southeast. She says once the Taliban entered the provincial government, the changes to women’s lives came swiftly.

Razia says that because of Zabul’s inherent cultural conservatism, women were already more restricted than in other provinces. But when the Taliban arrived, public places became even more gender-segregated and new countrywide rules such as women only being able to travel with a male guardian were more strictly enforced in Zabul.


She says she was scared by the new provincial government. “Mostly because of the uncertainty. We really didn’t know how they would act towards us, especially towards women,” says the mother of three young children in a soft voice.

“Many women have stopped going to their offices here in Zabul,” she says, “Including me.” Razia stopped working last August, fearing that publicly advocating for women’s education would bring negative attention to her and her family.

Those fears of a backlash have come to pass for other female activists. In January, following protests in Kabul, some activists had their homes raided. On August 13, a women’s rights march in Kabul was suppressed when Taliban fighters beat female protesters and began firing over their heads.

But Razia says she still holds out hope for positive change. “Girls are still allowed to go to university here, so I’m hopeful that the government will also allow the girls to return to high school classes too. Luckily, I have already finished high school, but now I feel much more nervous about what the future holds for me, and especially my children,” she says. “I’m still hopeful that the government has the best interests of the Afghan people at heart, but I feel like I have been deprived of some of my rights and hopes for the future.”

For Razia, jobs and educational opportunities are critical. “My family is in a bad economic situation now,” she says. “If they [the Taliban] could provide more jobs for women in government offices, it would help many families. We all need more work opportunities … the Taliban have made lots of promises about building this country up again, so I hope they will not let us down.”

Noori says believes in a brighter future and sees her field of chemical engineering as one that can help her country grow 

[Kern Hendricks/Al Jazeera]

‘I want to help my country’

Back in the lab, Noori says that the situation for women at the factory is far from black and white.

“It’s true that some things in my life remained the same since the Taliban took power,” she says, adjusting the fabric around her face. “I’m still working now. I wore my chador in the same way as I do now. My sister still attends her university classes, although they’ve now been gender segregated.”

Noori says that she still believes in a brighter future.

“I want to complete my master’s and PhD and then come back to continue working in this factory,” she says, looking towards the city and the distant horizon. She points to the importance of manufacturing fertiliser for Afghanistan’s agricultural sector amidst the country’s widespread food insecurity. “Chemical engineering is an important field, and I want to help my country develop and grow,” she says.

“For now, my goal is to regain my old position and continue my work here.”

Noori looks up at the ageing wall clock on the laboratory wall. The afternoon is passing, and there is work to do. She begins to turn back to her tests but pauses for a moment.


“Things aren’t easy for women in Afghanistan – they have never been. I do what I can in my own life to follow my ambitions; that’s all I can do. I’d never marry a man who told me to stop my career, and I won’t let anyone else stop me either. I try to stay optimistic.”

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA

‘Cannot justify what happened’: Ex-Pak PM Imran Khan on attack on Salman Rushdie

World News

Published on Aug 19, 2022 

British author Salman Rushdie was stabbed by a 24-year-old New Jersey resident

 - identified as Hadi Matar - on stage in western New York state on August 12.

FILE PHOTO: Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan.(REUTERS)

Written by Manjiri Sachin Chitre | Edited by Swati Bhasin

Former Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan on Friday said that the attack on British author Salman Rushdie was “unjustifiable”. In an interview to the Guardian, Khan termed the assault as “terrible and sad” and indicated that while the “anger in the Islamic world at the Mumbai-born author’s controversial novel ‘The Satanic Verses’ was understandable”, the attack, on the other hand, was “unjustifiable”.

“Rushdie understood because he came from a Muslim family. He knows the love, respect, and reverence of a prophet that lives in our hearts. He knew that. So, the anger I understood, but you can’t justify what happened,” Khan told the British daily.

Notably, in 2012, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief had refused to attend a media conclave in New Delhi after learning about Rushdie's participation. He had reportedly said that he could not “think of participating in an event that included Rushdie - who had caused immeasurable hurt to Muslims across the globe.”

Also read: 'Can finally exhale': Padma Lakshmi, Salman Rusdhie's ex wife, on recovery

British author Salman Rushdie was stabbed by a 24-year-old New Jersey resident - identified as Hadi Matar - on stage in western New York state on August 12. The Indian-born writer suffered three stab wounds to his neck, four stab wounds to his stomach, puncture wounds to his right eye and chest, and a laceration on his right thigh, the police had said.

Rushdie has been receiving threats since his book 'The Satanic Verses' was published in 1988. The book had led to a fatwa - a religious decree - by the then Iranian leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. According to some reports, a bounty of around USD three million was declared earlier for anyone who kills Rushdie.

(With inputs from agencies)

Travelling while black: A first-hand account of the restrictive visa system impacting diversity at nuclear policy conferences

Olamide Samuel |Research Associate in Nuclear Politics at the University of Leicester

Commentary | 8 August 2022

“So glad we finally got you here!”

I recall hearing numerous iterations of this statement on the first day of the Nuclear Ban Forum this June in Austria. As I acclimated my sleep deprived self with the Vienna heat, and wandered around the Aula der Wissenschaften, I felt relief knowing that I wasn’t going to miss the panel discussion I was slated to speak at the following day. Even though I had accepted the kind invitation to speak three months earlier, I couldn’t confirm with any degree of certainty that I would be able to physically take the main stage. At least not until I obtained a visa that authorised me to be in Austria – a visa I eventually received 5 days prior to the event.

To obtain the eight-day single-entry visa to Austria, I boarded four trains, spent the night in the city of Manchester, printed just under 40 pages of accompanying documents -including three months of bank statements and payslips, as well as all sorts of cover letters provided by my employer, and ICAN. I also paid £130 in application fees. In addition, I corresponded with everyone from those tasked with ban forum travel logistics at ICAN, to senior diplomats in Vienna. All to ensure that I could be granted an appointment, and that my visa application was not rejected. You see, regardless of the fact that I had provided all the information required for a successful visa application, there was no legal requirement for the Austrian embassy in London to guarantee the issuance of a visa to a Nigerian.

To obtain the eight-day single-entry visa to Austria, I boarded four trains, spent the night in the city of Manchester, printed just under 40 pages of accompanying documents -including three months of bank statements and payslips, as well as all sorts of cover letters provided by my employer, and ICAN. Olamide Samuel

In recounting the visa ordeal with ICAN members of staff, I quickly became aware of the number of participants and speakers who were not issued visas in time to attend the ban forum. I listened to stories of individuals for whom the Austrian Visa was simply out of reach, despite the tireless efforts of ICAN staffers to ensure their in-person participation. Of course, many (if not all) of these individuals were young people from the global south. I quickly became reminded of my privilege – I reside in a western country (the UK) and my journey to the visa application centre was comparatively hassle-free. I travelled to Manchester, whilst others residing in Africa had to travel to neighbouring countries to be able to receive consular services. And all of this happened against the backdrop of an Austria that was rapidly attempting to (albeit momentarily) dismantle systemic barriers they erected to keep people that look like me, out of their country. Afterall, it would have been embarrassing to host the very first meeting of state parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW 1MSP), without any global south civil society representatives present. For context, global south states currently account for at least 58 of the 66 TPNW state parties.

Yet, from the point of view of civil society participation and representation in nuclear conferences, the Nuclear Ban Forum and the TPNW 1MSP were unique. The sheer presence of young vibrant activists and academics furnished diplomatic deliberations with immersive testimonies, presentations, and statements. Their participation also noticeably interfered with the traditional diplomatic decorum in a positive way – 1MSP was the first time I ever witnessed rounds of applause after each and every statement given at a diplomatic conference. Diplomats from the global south were noticeably surprised and pleased to see young representatives from their respective countries at a nuclear conference. And many of these young representatives benefited from the generous sponsorship provided by ICAN, which included flights, hotels, and logistical support. Without this, we would have witnessed a similar lack of diversity that has accompanied other nuclear conferences this summer.

As soon as I returned to the UK on the 25th of June, it was time for me to repeat the entire visa process again. I needed a US visa to be able to attend the August NPT Review Conference (RevCon) and the October Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. My trip to 1MSP meant that my passport was only available for submission, with less than 7 weeks left to obtain a US visa. It should have been sufficient time, I thought, relying on my experience with European visas. I had never applied for a US visa before, but I’ve heard stories from other Nigerians about how daunting and invasive the process is. After booking the flights, hotels, travel insurance (as required), I was finally ready to schedule an appointment with the US embassy in London. To book such an appointment, I had to fill in around 12 pages of forms, which included invasive requirements to declare every single social media account, phone number and email address I have ever owned for the past 5 years – amongst other things. Only after all this information was submitted, would I be able to even see the next available appointment date.

“First available appointments: 5 January 2023”

I stared at my computer screen in disbelief. I had not realised that I would need at least 7 months, not weeks, to be able to attend a visa interview. It quickly dawned on me that I never had a realistic shot at attending the repeatedly postponed NPT RevCon. Even if I had applied for a US visa on the same day as RevCon president-designate Zlauvinen’s announcement of the confirmed dates (which he made on March 11, 2022), I still would have been unable to make it. I guess 1MSP in Austria wasn’t that bad afterall?

I never had a realistic shot at attending the repeatedly postponed NPT RevCon. Even if I had applied for a US visa on the same day as RevCon president-designate Zlauvinen’s announcement of the confirmed dates, I still would have been unable to make it. Olamide Samuel
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I cut my losses, vented on twitter, and decided to move on. Afterall, I still needed to apply for a Swedish visa, as I was invited to speak at the inaugural conference of the Alva Myrdal Centre for Disarmament a few months down the line. I promptly snapped up a visa interview a day later, due to a prior cancellation. A stroke of good luck, given that one usually has to wait weeks to secure an appointment. However, this meant that I had to withdraw from another speaking engagement at a York University conference on the same day, an opportunity-cost most academics in nuclear policy never have to calculate.

The reality is that nuclear politics affect all people, yet not all voices are given equitable access to the spaces where crucial deliberations and decisions are made. Despite the fact that much of the negative human and environmental impacts are borne by people of colour across the global south, the spaces where decisions are made remain exclusively in western capitals – and the conversations remain limited to a select few. The structural barriers erected to limit participation (such as visas, accreditation, the costs of registering, accommodation in Western capitals and flights), remain more diverse than the individuals who are ‘authorised’ to exist in these limited and shrinking spaces. My reflection on the restrictive visa system merely highlights one of many such barriers. Annual statements of sympathy and solidarity with black and brown people will not change the fact that most conference planning committees fail to account for the logistical barriers to entry, faced by people from the global south who are primarily people of colour.

Despite the fact that much of the negative human and environmental impacts are borne by people of colour across the global south, the spaces where decisions are made remain exclusively in western capitals - and the conversations remain limited to a select few. Olamide Samuel
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Given that neither the US, Austria, nor any other western countries appear to be revising their visa regimes any time soon, here are a few recommendations for nuclear conference organisers, all centred around paying attention to the visa regimes governing proposed conferences:

First, the prevailing assumption that invitees enjoy equal mobility privileges, perpetuates this very inequality. In simply inquiring about invitees’ visa challenges, conference planners will become aware of the kind of assistance which might be required by the invitee. It could be as simple as drafting invitation letters, or providing a dedicated point of contact for consular purposes. Inquiring about invitees’ visa challenges should not be any less common than inquiring about dietary restrictions – yet this is not currently the case.

Inquiring about invitees’ visa challenges should not be any less common than inquiring about dietary restrictions. Olamide Samuel

Second, conferences need to be planned well enough in advance, accounting for the time required to obtain entry permits. Three months might seem like a long time to begin logistical preparations for conferences but the reality is that the estimated average waiting time for a US visa appointment, for example, is 244 days. For many other western countries, waiting times are around two to three months. I’ll take this opportunity to point out that even the UN’s accreditation procedures for civil society representatives neither considers extended visa waiting times as relevant, nor does it offer invitation letters – a visa requirement for every western country within which UN conference centres are situated.

Many of these barriers to entry are not as invisible as many would have you believe but by characterising them as invisible it excuses the privileged (and those capable of lowering them) from having not noticed them in the first place.

As I write this, having received reports of “the striking lack of [diversity]” at the 2022 NPT RevCon, I can only imagine the accessibility implications of hosting TPNW 2MSP in New York in 2023 and I already dread the thought of having to go through the US visa hurdle, just so I can stay connected to the TPNW review cycle. For some of us, the Atlantic is not just a pond that can be skipped, it’s a bloody vast ocean.

The opinions articulated above represent the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the European Leadership Network or all of its members. The ELN’s aim is to encourage debates that will help develop Europe’s capacity to address the pressing foreign, defence, and security policy challenges of our time.

In Ukraine's martyred Bucha, more victims are buried without a name

Agence France-Presse
August 19, 2022

In Ukraine’s martyred Bucha, more victims are buried without name © France 24

In March, during the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, numerous atrocities were committed in small towns north of Kyiv – horrors that are still being documented today. In Bucha, an estimated 458 prisoners of war and civilians were slaughtered under Russian occupation, at least fifty of whom are yet to be identified.

The victims are now being buried in the local cemetery while the investigation into their identities continues. A truck arrives from the Bucha town morgue — inside, the remains of 20 unidentified bodies. It's the third such burial at the town cemetery in the last week. Father Andriy stands alone among the dead — there are no relatives here to mourn their passing. As they are lowered into the ground, he is here to ensure they will not be forgotten.

"It is very important for us to bury them with dignity, not just to bury them as bodies, but to bury them as people with the hope of resurrection from the dead," says the Orthodox priest.

Six months after the massacre in Bucha, the scene at the cemetery is the beginning of a process of closure. However, it won't be complete until every last body has been identified and the relatives informed

The war in Ukraine and the nuclear consequences of the new arms race

Carlos D. Sorreta |Former Philippine Ambassador to the Russian Federation

Commentary | 19 August 2022

The six months of Russia’s ‘special military action’ in Ukraine have produced many images of Russia’s military shortcomings. The image of a Ukrainian farmer and his tractor towing away a Russian armoured vehicle quickly turned viral. It morphed into dozens of memes that include one where the farmer and his tractor was towing away for scrap the stricken Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

Throughout the conflict, we have been inundated with images of military blunders with equipment losses and Russian soldiers dead or in captivity. Russian armoured vehicles breaking down and falling by the wayside even before reaching the frontlines. Russian tanks destroyed by foot soldiers wielding man-portable weapons and drones. Russian aircraft being blown out of the sky by the same foot soldiers and their shoulder-fired missiles. Russian communications easily intercepted. Captured equipment once feared as highly technical and advanced, turning out to be packed with antiquated or even missing components. Russian soldiers stealing food, bulletproof vests, and even boots. Russian logistics struggling to keep their troops and supplies through mud and adverse conditions. Russian generals dying on the frontlines.

Another prevalent image, particularly in the early part of the conflict, was comparisons between the militaries of Russia and Ukraine, showing an immense advantage on the part of Russia. These images were accompanied by commentaries that Russia, with its vast number of troops and equipment, should have easily overrun Ukraine. Often left out of these analyses is the fact that in any armed conflict, it would be difficult for Russia to focus all its forces on one front. Though its military is massive, Russia is a huge country and must defend all its vast territory, which requires that the majority of its defensive forces must stay in place and cannot be brought to bear on a single front in any offensive capacity.

There is an inescapable conclusion from these qualitative and quantitative aspects of Russia’s military power: it is hardly capable of attacking and defeating NATO. It does not have the true offensive capability to challenge and defeat NATO, or even some of its individual members. Russia’s military capabilities, though formidable, are sufficient largely for its own defence to guard and secure its rather substantial territory. In 2021, Russia accounted for just 3.2% of world military spending. For the same year, the rest of NATO – excluding the US, the UK, France and Germany – already amounted to 8.3% of the world’s total. Combined with these four states, NATO collectively accounts for 57.1% of world defence spending.

In 2021, Russia accounted for just 3.2% of world military spending. For the same year, NATO collectively accounts for 57.1% of world defence spending. Carlos D. Sorreta
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Russia’s thinly stretched military could validate what it has been claiming all along: that its armed forces, huge and substantial though they may be, are for defensive purposes only. It has very little true offensive capability in terms of waging conventional war against NATO and having any hope of victory. What then is the reason for NATO’s very existence? If Russia is unable to defeat and conquer Ukraine, whose military power is below that of at least seven or eight individual NATO members, then how much of an existential threat is Russia to NATO and its members?

The Russian military failure could provide a historic opportunity to reassess the security situation in Europe. Hopefully, a narrative emerges where NATO realises – and acknowledges – the true limited military capabilities of Russia. Russia is not the Soviet Union with its Eastern Bloc. There is no longer a Warsaw Pact. Warsaw is now helping Ukraine wage war against Russia. Just as importantly, for this narrative to have any chance of success, Russia itself must take every effort to be less of a threat.

However, the narrative is heading in the opposite direction. NATO seems to have decided to ignore Russia’s diminished military capabilities and instead place its faith in stronger defence – a decision which will inevitably lead to a new conventional arms race and increased tensions. The emerging narrative is that NATO must increase its defence spending to build and produce more and better arms – whatever the outcome of the current conflict.

NATO seems to have decided to ignore Russia’s diminished military capabilities and instead place its faith in stronger defence – a decision which will inevitably lead to a new conventional arms race and increased tensions. Carlos D. Sorreta
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The question is, will Russia be able to keep up with NATO’s arms build-up?

As mentioned above, NATO collectively has more resources available for defence than Russia does. Though the reporting period covered by the IISS Military Balance 2022 indicates that much of the spending goes towards recapitalisation of airpower, improving readiness, and increasing capabilities for the Indo-Pacific, the conflict in Ukraine has led to the reprioritisation of resources to face the Russian threat, as evidenced by the German decision to commit 100 billion euros for its 2022 defence budget, almost double the 2021 budget. Russia would have to divert huge amounts of capital, source high technology, address the issue of corruption and redirect civilian industries in order to make up for its shortfalls in critical items like precision munitions and sustain the conflict. Though Russia reports that it has gained a budget surplus in January-July 2022, being able to spend that money may be a challenge due to the sanctions regime in place.

Trying to keep up with the West and its military spending is one of the reasons the Soviet Union no longer exists. This is a lesson that President Putin, who was there at its collapse and who had to pick up the pieces of a dismembered power, understood very well. There is a very real danger here. If Russia cannot keep up with the West’s conventional arms build-up, how can it feel truly secure? How can it match NATO’s military capabilities without defaulting on its debts? Although Russia could just try to spend more on its military industries (it has already spent double its planned spending in the first four months of 2022) heedless of long-term costs, doubts remain about whether it can sustain its forces. In the long-term, it seems possible that the only choice for Russia is to rely more heavily on its nuclear force, including tactical nuclear weapons. That choice might appear to Russia as the most cost-efficient way to match any NATO arms build-up.

This concern is reinforced by the fact that throughout the conflict, Russia has never hesitated to bring the spectre of nuclear weapons into the political discourse. This stance is consistent with its 2014 Military Doctrine, which states that: “The Russian Federation shall reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.”

NATO’s leaders are certainly aware of this dire possibility. All their actions in support of Ukraine have been carefully calibrated to prevent an escalation as there is an unspoken fear of triggering a wider, and even a nuclear, conflict. While their rhetoric has been forceful, NATO leaders have gone to great lengths to emphasise that they will not intervene directly in the conflict and will limit their help to sanctions, specific weapons, development assistance, and intelligence. However, there are always those who only need the slightest excuse to push for unrestrained defence spending, and Russia’s armed action in Ukraine is certainly far from being slight.

This month, diplomats in nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation gather at the United Nations in New York for the 10th Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It is an important venue to influence the discourse on the possible nuclear consequences of NATO’s plans to dramatically increase defence spending. The continuous, unrestrained growth in defence spending promotes self-reinforcing “cycles of insecurity”, which will further negatively impact international security. The immediate priority for all parties involved in the conflict is to agree on terms for an effective ceasefire and find a workable diplomatic solution to the war.

The opinions articulated above represent the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Philippine Government, the European Leadership Network or all of its members. The ELN’s aim is to encourage debates that will help develop Europe’s capacity to address the pressing foreign, defence, and security policy challenges of our time.

Image: Wikimedia, Міністерство внутрішніх справ України

Turkey's Erdogan warns of 'another Chernobyl' in Ukraine during Zelensky meeting

A flare-up in fighting around Europe's largest nuclear facility in Russian-controlled southern Ukraine has sparked urgent warnings from world leaders.

The New Arab Staff & Agencies
19 August, 2022

Turkey's President Erdogan said in Ukraine: 'We are worried. We don't want another Chernobyl' [Mykola Tys/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty]


Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned on Thursday of a nuclear disaster in Ukraine during his first face-to-face talks with Kyiv's President Volodymyr Zelensky since Russia's invasion began, echoing pleas from the UN's chief.

A flare-up in fighting around Europe's largest nuclear facility in Russian-controlled southern Ukraine has sparked urgent warnings from world leaders, and UN chief António Guterres cautioned during talks with Erdogan that any damage to the plant would be akin to "suicide".

"We are worried. We don't want another Chernobyl," Erdogan said during a press conference in the eastern city of Lviv, during which he also assured the Ukrainian leader that Ankara was a firm ally.

"While continuing our efforts to find a solution, we remain on the side of our Ukraine friends," Erdogan said.

Guterres said he was "gravely concerned" about the situation at the plant and that it had to be demilitarised, adding: "We must tell it like it is – any potential damage to Zaporizhzhia is suicide".

Erdogan, who has major geopolitical rivalries with the Kremlin but maintains a close working relationship with President Vladimir Putin, met with the Russian leader less than two weeks ago in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.

The Turkish leader and Guterres were key brokers of a deal inked in Istanbul last month allowing for the resumption of grain exports from Ukraine after Russia's invasion blocked essential global supplies.

Ahead of the press conference with Zelensky, Ukraine's port authority announced that the 25th cargo ship under the deal had departed for Egypt carrying 33,000 tonnes of grain.

RELATED

Ukraine: NATO says 'urgent' need to inspect nuclear plant

Ukraine and Russia are two of the world's biggest grain exporters, and the halt in exports has seen grain prices soar and fears of a global food shortage mount.

Guterres said during the meeting with reporters that the sides hoped to intensify efforts to bolster operations at three southern ports designated to handle exports under the deal.

"We will do our best to scale up our operations to face… the coming winter," he said.

Guterres continued his visit on Friday with a trip to Odessa, one of the ports involved, and was expected to later head to Turkey to visit the body tasked with overseeing the exports accord.
'They should leave'

The success of the grain deal contrasts with failed peace talks early in the war, and Zelensky on Thursday ruled out peace with Russia unless it withdrew its troops from Ukraine.

He told reporters he was "very surprised" to hear from Erdogan that Russia was "ready for some kind of peace", adding: "First they should leave our territory and then we'll see".

Fighting raged along the front on Thursday and early on Friday.

Bombardments across the city of Kharkiv and nearby Krasnograd left at least six dead and 25 injured on Thursday, just one day after Russian bombardments killed 13 in the country's second-largest urban centre.

Early morning shelling on Friday also targeted the city of Nikopol, according to a local military official, while the mayor of Mykolayiv reported "massive explosions" there around the same time.

Meanwhile, two Russian villages in Belgorod province were evacuated on Thursday after a fire broke out at an ammunition depot near the Ukrainian border, local authorities said.

The blaze came amid a slew of blasts at Russian military installations near Ukraine, one of which Moscow has acknowledged to be an act of "sabotage".
'Provocation' at Zaporizhzhia?

Fighting in recent weeks has focused around the southern region of Zaporizhzhia and the nuclear facility there, and Zelensky called on the UN to ensure security at the plant after direct talks with Guterres, while also blaming Russia for "deliberate" attacks on the facility.

Russian forces took the plant in March and uncertainty surrounding it has fuelled fears of a nuclear incident.

Moscow dismissed Ukrainian allegations on Thursday, saying its forces had not deployed heavy weapons at Zaporizhzhia and accusing Kyiv of preparing a "provocation" there that would see Russia "accused of creating a manmade disaster at the plant".

Kyiv, however, insisted it was Moscow that was planning a "provocation" at the facility.

Ukrainian military intelligence said in a Facebook post on Thursday night that it had received reports that all but a "small part of operational personnel" at the plant had been ordered to stay home on Friday, while representatives of Russia's state nuclear operator "actually left the territory" of the facility.

"Considering the number of weapons that are currently located on the territory of the nuclear plant, as well as repeated provocative shelling, there is a high probability of a large-scale terrorist attack at the nuclear facility," it said.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said Russia's seizure of the plant "poses a serious threat", and has called for a Russian withdrawal and inspections by the UN nuclear watchdog.

Raid on Ramallah's St. Andrew's Church in Israeli clampdown on Palestinian NGOs

Yesterday the army attacked the Anglican compound "without warning" and in an "unjustified" manner. The military's target was the offices of al-Haq, an organization that fights for the rights of Palestinians, especially political prisoners. The larger operation also involved five other ngos in the West Bank.

 


Jerusalem (AsiaNews) - The "unannounced and unjustified" attack on St. Andrew's Anglican Church in Ramallah, West Bank, was part of a larger operation against Palestinian ngos and activist movements in the territory. In the early hours of yesterday, Israeli security forces broke into the premises, breaking locks and smashing the security glass. Local witnesses report that for more than two hours the military occupied the compound, which includes the sanctuary, parish hall, church offices, rectory and the medical center run by the Episcopalian church.

Rev. Fadi Diab, rector of St. Andrew's, says soldiers "occupied the entire complex" causing substantial damage to the structure. Attacks on places of worship and devastation of church property, he adds, "violate international law and throw an entire community" that operates peacefully into terror.

Those living inside the compound in Ramallah experienced a condition of "profound insecurity" throughout the assault. The sound of gunfire, stun grenades and the crashing of doors caused "terror" among families in the area. Although there was no justification behind the raid, and the assault on the church premises, Israeli security forces tried to justify the operation by stressing that the target was al-Haq, one of the most prominent pro-human rights groups in the West Bank. Indeed, the St. Andrew's compound rents an office to the group, but it benefits from a completely separate entrance from the place of worship.

The Anglican Diocese of Jerusalem, led by the Rev. Hosam E. Naoum has condemned an attack on "a holy place" and "devastation of Church property." In these hours, the raided NGO al-Haq itself, the target of the raid, also released a note describing the manner of the attack, the damage caused and the threats made by Israeli forces. At the same time, the activists stressed that they will not be intimidated and that they intend to continue in their work in defense of Palestinian rights, particularly political prisoners, calling on the Israeli authorities to revoke the "terrorist" designation for the group.

The assault on al-Haq's headquarters, and by extension on the Anglican compound, is part of a larger operation conducted in recent hours by Israeli authorities against activist groups and ngos fighting for Palestinian rights. Similar incidents have occurred in the past and are linked to very specific directives promoted by the current governments: in the past that of Benjamin Netanyahu, which passed a controversial law on funding sources, and today by the executive led by Yair Lapid (and Defense Minister Benny Gantz).

Also yesterday, in fact, the army raided the offices of six ngos all located in Ramallah, afflicting a permanent closure order. In addition to al-Haq are the other ngos declared "terrorist organizations" in 2021: Bisan Center for Research and Development, Defense for Children International-Palestine, the Union of Agricultural Work Committees and the Union of Palestinian Women's Committees. According to the order, "illegal activities" were being carried out inside the offices, although no actual evidence of wrongdoing or violence has surfaced in recent months.

UK
Diocese condemns Israeli raid of church compound in Ramallah
by FRANCIS MARTIN

19 AUGUST 2022

ALAMY

A poster is hung over the entrance to Al-Haq’s office after it was raided and shut down by Israeli Military forces

THE Episcopal Church in Jerusalem and the Middle East has condemned a “flagrant” raid on the premises of its church in Ramallah, in the occupied West Bank, in the early hours of Thursday morning.

In a statement released by the diocese of Jerusalem later on Thursday, the actions of the Israeli forces involved in the incident are described as “a violation of international law and a terroristic act against the entire community”.

It was revealed later that the focus of the raid was the offices of Palestinian NGOs that rent space in the church compound, including the human-rights organisation Al-Haq. In October last year, Al-Haq was classified as a terrorist organisation by the Israeli government, a move that was criticised by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR).

A spokesperson for the US State Department has also expressed “concern” about the raid on the NGOs.

The Rector of St Andrew’s, Ramallah, the Revd Fadi Diab, told Agence France-Press: “The soldiers came into the premises around 3 a.m. and we started hearing shots and banging on the doors.”

The diocesan statement details how the door to the church complex was smashed, and the entire building — including the sanctuary and rectory — occupied for two hours. “The sound of gunshots, stun grenades, and the smashing of doors caused terror among the families living inside the compound,” the statement says.

The Guardian reports that the Israeli forces took equipment from the offices and sealed the doors, leaving a notice saying that they had been closed for “security reasons”. But later on Thursday, staff from Al-Haq removed the barriers and vowed to continue its work.

In a statement issued on Thursday, Al-Haq urged the international community to “take concrete measures, such as trade restrictions and arms embargoes, to ensure that Israel is held internationally responsible for its ongoing systematic inhumane acts of apartheid, including the persecution of Palestinian human rights defenders.”

Also on Thursday, the Episcopal Peace Fellowship Palestine/Israel Network condemned the attack as “illegal”. Under international law, Israeli forces require the permission of the Palestinian Authority to operate in Ramallah.

The diocese of Jerusalem asserts: “Places of worship and church compounds should be sanctuaries for communities to feel safe to practice their faith and ministry.” It is calling for a “speedy and impartial investigation into this incident, followed by serious disciplinary action against the offenders”.

Republicans 'blew it': Here's how Dems could maintain Senate control in 2022

Matthew Chapman
August 18, 2022

Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin 

On Thursday's edition of CNN's "OutFront," election forecaster Harry Enten laid out why Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is trying to tamp down expectations for Republican performances in Senate contests this cycle — and why he particularly knocked his party's "candidate quality."

"Just go to Pennsylvania, for example," said Enten. "Mehmet Oz, 20 points underwater on his favorability. In Georgia, Herschel Walker, minus 5 points. Arizona, Blake Masters, 4 points underwater. And you see that in all those races that we mentioned where the Democrats are ahead, the net favorability of the different Republicans is underwater. Their unfavorable ratings are higher than favorable ratings. This is a long-standing problem with Republicans. We saw it in 2010 as well. They blew it then because they nominated bad candidates in the minds of the voters."

"You've got [Wisconsin's Ron] Johnson, an incumbent, but Oz, that was completely discretionary. That was their choice. Walker, completely discretionary, that's their choice," noted anchor Erin Burnett. Enten concurred, pointing out that Trump himself picked most of these candidates through his endorsements.

Another point to note, said Enten, is that while President Joe Biden's approval rating remains low, that has historically had little impact on the result of Senate elections in midterms.

"If you go back over time and say let's look at the Senate races or the Senate years in which the incumbent, the White House party did not in fact lose any seats or in fact gain seats and look at the president's approval rating in those years, we don't actually see that much of a relationship," said Enten. "You look at 1982, for example, Ronald Reagan was not anywhere close to 50 percent. In fact, Republicans held their grounding. You look just four years ago, Donald Trump was well underwater. What happened? Republicans actually gained two senate seats."

"There are years where the president's approval rating is high and the White House party holds or gains seats, but the relationship is not as straight as you might expect it to be," Enten continued. "At this point, even though Biden's approval rating is low, it's not shocking to me that Democrats are not only holding their grounding but if the election is held today, they might gain some seats."

 

Democrats think they can defy history and hold the House in 2022 — here's why

Bob Brigham
August 18, 2022

Kevin McCarthy on Twitter.

The conventional wisdom that the Republican Party is likely to win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm election was challenged by Susan Glasser in The New Yorker.

"The results of this midterm season so far have shown how nearly complete Trump’s Republican triumph already is. Dozens of election deniers who have adopted the former President’s lies about his 2020 election loss have won Republican nominations, up and down the ballot," Glasser wrote. "So why are Trump’s opponents—at least some of them—feeling in any way optimistic?"

Glasser noted historical precedent, President Joe Biden's low polling, and record inflation.

"But, over the summer, a new school of what might be called 'Trumptimism' has taken hold among some Democratic strategists and independent analysts," Glasser reported. "In the mess of our current politics, they discern a case for optimism—history-defying, experience-flouting optimism that maybe things won’t work out so badly after all in November."

Glasser noted hopes of a blue wave from Simon Rosenberg of New Democrat Network.

"The Trump factor, according to Rosenberg, is key. For the past several election cycles, nothing has united Democratic voters more than the chance to vote against him. And all summer Trump has been back in the news, thanks to revelations from testimony in the House’s January 6th hearings; the F.B.I. search of Mar-a-Lago, for classified documents improperly taken from the White House; and endless speculation about whether Trump will be indicted or run again for President—or both," Glasser wrote. "Rosenberg sees this fall as a genuinely competitive election, not a foregone conclusion."

Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report disagreed.

“All the fundamentals are telling us not that much has changed,” Walter said. “There is not a blue wave, no. The question is: How big is the red wave?”

However, also on Thursday, the Cook Political Report shifted their forecasts towards Democrats in two senate races.

In Pennsylvania, the forecast was shifted from a tossup to leaning towards Lt. Gov. John Fetterman beating Dr. Mehment Oz. And it Utah, where GOP Sen. Mike Lee is facing independent Evan McMullin after Dems refused to nominate a candidate, the forecast was shifted from solid for Lee to leaning towards him.

"GOP fears a repeat of 2010/12 when weak candidates cost them winnable races," Cook Political's Jessica Taylor reported.

Veteran Democratic strategic Joe Trippi predicted, "it’s gonna be a lot worse than 2010."

"2010 crazy just infected Senate races. 2022 it’s even crazier in the House," Trippi wrote. "2010 was just the Tea Party. We’re talking Ultra MAGA in 2022."