DW
January 12, 2025
During their election campaign, Germany's conservatives have prioritized defense spending and supplying more arms to Ukraine. Though they are polling well, their proposals do not reflect the priorities of German voters.
Merz (left) and CSU head Söder are divided over the issue of military support for Ukraine
During their election campaign, Germany's conservatives have prioritized defense spending and supplying more arms to Ukraine. Though they are polling well, their proposals do not reflect the priorities of German voters.
Merz (left) and CSU head Söder are divided over the issue of military support for Ukraine
Image: Michael Kappeler/picture alliance/dpa
The joint election manifesto for the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union (CSU) includes security guarantees for Ukraine that Germany could make good on along with the US and its European partners in NATO.
"Ukraine also defends us," the manifesto reads. "If Ukraine falls, there is the threat of an attack on another EU country."
The CDU and CSU consider it possible that Germany would participate in negotiations toward a ceasefire in Ukraine, even if that were to mean the deployment of Bundeswehr soldiers to keep the peace. Politicians for the parties are reluctant to talk about that part, as security is not a high priority for voters in February's election.
The Taurus question
The greatest skepticism about further arms deliveries to Ukraine comes from eastern Germany and the wealthy southern state of Bavaria.
So far, the government, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), has refused to supply Taurus cruise missiles on the grounds that Ukraine could use them to hit targets within Russia, which would make Germany a party to the war.
The US, the UK and France have already supplied similar longer-range weapons that allow Ukraine to strike targets across the border.
The argument that Germany should not allow itself to be drawn into the war was also used by Bavarian State Premiere Markus Söder, of the CSU, at his election campaign launch in Seeon.
But Söder did not respond to a question from DW about Taurus missiles, saying the decision would be up to the next chancellor.
Thomas Erndl, a CSU deputy who sits on the Bundestag's foreign affairs committee, told DW that "the opinion has become entrenched among the population that arms deliveries fuel war, while stopping deliveries slows it down."
"We have to contend with this mood," Erndl said.
The joint election manifesto for the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union (CSU) includes security guarantees for Ukraine that Germany could make good on along with the US and its European partners in NATO.
"Ukraine also defends us," the manifesto reads. "If Ukraine falls, there is the threat of an attack on another EU country."
The CDU and CSU consider it possible that Germany would participate in negotiations toward a ceasefire in Ukraine, even if that were to mean the deployment of Bundeswehr soldiers to keep the peace. Politicians for the parties are reluctant to talk about that part, as security is not a high priority for voters in February's election.
The Taurus question
The greatest skepticism about further arms deliveries to Ukraine comes from eastern Germany and the wealthy southern state of Bavaria.
So far, the government, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), has refused to supply Taurus cruise missiles on the grounds that Ukraine could use them to hit targets within Russia, which would make Germany a party to the war.
The US, the UK and France have already supplied similar longer-range weapons that allow Ukraine to strike targets across the border.
The argument that Germany should not allow itself to be drawn into the war was also used by Bavarian State Premiere Markus Söder, of the CSU, at his election campaign launch in Seeon.
But Söder did not respond to a question from DW about Taurus missiles, saying the decision would be up to the next chancellor.
Thomas Erndl, a CSU deputy who sits on the Bundestag's foreign affairs committee, told DW that "the opinion has become entrenched among the population that arms deliveries fuel war, while stopping deliveries slows it down."
"We have to contend with this mood," Erndl said.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz right, pictured meeting Ukrainian President Zelenskyy
Image: Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo/picture alliance
The CDU's candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has publicly declared his willingness to supply Taurus missiles, but only in consultation with European NATO partners. However, the CDU/CSU election manifesto stakes out no clear position on the issue.
In contrast, the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) are in favor of "the immediate delivery of Taurus cruise missiles," while the SPD is clearly against it.
How decisively Germany's next government will ultimately act largely depends on two factors.
Money for defense
The first has to do with the geopolitical dynamics after January 20, when Donald Trump will be sworn in as US president for the second time. Trump is likely to put considerable pressure on Germany, both economically and in terms of security policy.
Decisions would have to be made more quickly, and more money would be needed, a high-ranking CDU politician from eastern Germany told DW. "When the ceasefire in Ukraine comes," the politician said, "we will have to pay for it."
The populist-presenting parties, the far-right Alternative for Germany and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, have been particularly successful with their pro-Russia stance in eastern Germany.
The CDU and CSU have stated that they will not cave to Trump's demands that Germany spend 5% of GDP on defense, noting that the United States does not spend that much either.
The policy platform states that Germany would spend 2% of GDP on defense. The parties even advocate a target of 3% in a country where the arms industry holds considerable political sway.
The SPD 'handbrake'
The second factor on which Germany's security policy depends is the question of the makeup of any future coalition government.
"If the CDU/CSU were to govern with the SPD, security policy would proceed with the handbrake on," Gustav Gressel, a former senior research fellow with the European Council of Foreign Relations whose areas of expertise include Russia and defense policy, told DW.
Gressel said he expected members of the SPD who "continue the 'peace policy,' which is actually 'peace populism,'" to join such a government.
"The SPD would then fall back into its old position and use the fear strategy to distance itself from its larger coalition partner," Gressel said.
Merz would likely face critics on foreign and security policy issues both from within the coalition through the SPD and within the CDU and CSU, he said.
The CDU's candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has publicly declared his willingness to supply Taurus missiles, but only in consultation with European NATO partners. However, the CDU/CSU election manifesto stakes out no clear position on the issue.
In contrast, the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) are in favor of "the immediate delivery of Taurus cruise missiles," while the SPD is clearly against it.
How decisively Germany's next government will ultimately act largely depends on two factors.
Money for defense
The first has to do with the geopolitical dynamics after January 20, when Donald Trump will be sworn in as US president for the second time. Trump is likely to put considerable pressure on Germany, both economically and in terms of security policy.
Decisions would have to be made more quickly, and more money would be needed, a high-ranking CDU politician from eastern Germany told DW. "When the ceasefire in Ukraine comes," the politician said, "we will have to pay for it."
The populist-presenting parties, the far-right Alternative for Germany and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, have been particularly successful with their pro-Russia stance in eastern Germany.
The CDU and CSU have stated that they will not cave to Trump's demands that Germany spend 5% of GDP on defense, noting that the United States does not spend that much either.
The policy platform states that Germany would spend 2% of GDP on defense. The parties even advocate a target of 3% in a country where the arms industry holds considerable political sway.
The SPD 'handbrake'
The second factor on which Germany's security policy depends is the question of the makeup of any future coalition government.
"If the CDU/CSU were to govern with the SPD, security policy would proceed with the handbrake on," Gustav Gressel, a former senior research fellow with the European Council of Foreign Relations whose areas of expertise include Russia and defense policy, told DW.
Gressel said he expected members of the SPD who "continue the 'peace policy,' which is actually 'peace populism,'" to join such a government.
"The SPD would then fall back into its old position and use the fear strategy to distance itself from its larger coalition partner," Gressel said.
Merz would likely face critics on foreign and security policy issues both from within the coalition through the SPD and within the CDU and CSU, he said.
CDU/CSU, Greens aligned
A coalition between the CDU/CSU and the Greens, the junior partners in the current government, could put Germany in a leading position in terms of security policy more quickly.
The Greens have done a complete U-turn on security policy since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The party, which has many pacifists among its ranks, used to categorically reject arms deliveries to crisis regions.
Now, the Greens are among the biggest supporters of military aid for Ukraine — including the delivery of weapons systems.
CDU/CSU's policy plans
Though Taurus cruise missiles would not be a "game changer" in the war, Gressel said, they have become a powerful symbol of German angst.
Chancellor Scholz has "deliberately stirred up fear among the population with made-up arguments," Gressel said.
There is little doubt among experts and within the CDU/CSU that Germany would supply the Taurus missiles to Ukraine with Merz as chancellor as part of an overall effort to appear more robust on foreign policy than his predecessor.
This article was originally written in German.
