Analysis: Remember me? With fast recovery, labour shortage haunts Eastern Europe

By Krisztina Than and Alan Charlish 

© Reuters/BERNADETT SZABO FILE PHOTO: An employee works at the Wellis hot tub factory, during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Dabas

BUDAPEST/WARSAW (Reuters) - Central Europe's economies are recovering more quickly than expected from the coronavirus pandemic and industrial output is rising, but a chronic shortage of workers that pre-dates the crisis could be a bottleneck to future growth.

The labour squeeze caused by years of emigration to Western Europe and an economic boom across the region is already pushing up wages and inflation, prompting the Hungarian and Czech central banks to flag possible interest rate hikes.

As investment and European Union funds flow in, companies across the manufacturing, information technology and construction sectors are jostling to attract employees.

Eurostat methodology shows three of the European Union's five lowest jobless rates in April, at 3.4% in the Czech Republic, 4.3% in Hungary and an EU-low 3.1% in Poland.

In the same month, inflation rates in those countries were three of the EU's four highest, led by an 5.2% annual rate in Hungary and 5.1% in Poland.

"Temporary demand-supply frictions due to the rapid restart of the domestic economy, (and) renewed tightening of labour market capacities expected in certain sectors combined with dynamic wage growth have increased inflation risks," the National Bank of Hungary said after its May rate meeting.

The bank flagged a possible hike in its 0.6% base rate on June 22 to tame inflation, which would make it the first EU country to begin a tightening cycle.

The Czech economy does not need further support from loose monetary policy, central bank governor Jiri Rusnok said on May 28, suggesting a rate hike might be on cards at its next policy meeting on June 23.

"Labour shortages and the very hot labour market despite the pandemic is already reflected in inflation, and in Poland it can be seen in the prices of services. They are growing around 7% year-on-year and the pandemic does not slow it down much," said Andrzej Kaminski, an economist at Bank Millennium in Warsaw.

"Those labour shortages relate mainly to industry, manufacturing especially."

Graphic: Central Europe unemployment rates stay low -

 https://graphics.reuters.com/EASTEUROPE-ECONOMY/LABOUR/dgkvlnjxrvb/chart.png

LABOUR SQUEEZE

As vaccination drives boost recovery - Hungary has vaccinated 54% of its population - output and consumption have jumped, while labour markets have tightened beginning last year, companies and recruiters said.

German Continental Automotive Hungary, which employed about 8,200 people at end-2020 over seven production sites, two research centres and a tyre warehouse in Hungary, said recovery had started in the third quarter and reported "a healthy customer order situation" at most locations.

Robert Keszte, Head of Focus Country, Hungary, said that for engineers, software/IT experts and technicians in general there was a visible gap between supply and demand, with regional imbalances in the availability of skilled workers.

"I believe the more difficult times are yet ahead of us. With the reopening and recovery of the economy the hiring mood of the companies is also exploding ... I expect a much more difficult situation for the second half of 2021 versus 2020."

"We based our growth plans for increasing efficiency and automation level both in blue collar as well as in white collar positions," he added.

Gabor Toldi, managing director of recruitment consulting firm DTC Solution, said the labour shortage was severe in manufacturing and for white-collar jobs, with companies in eastern Hungary importing thousands of workers from Ukraine.

"A skilled worker can earn up to a gross monthly 500,000 forints ($1,753.09) now but this is still not comparable to wages of 1 million forints in Germany," he said, adding the German economy was still siphoning off workers.

Tomas Ervin Dombrovsky, a labour market analyst at Czech recruitment group LMC, which runs website jobs.cz, said manufacturing sector demand for workers had returned to 2019 levels by last autumn.

Czech job vacancies, according to the labour office, have climbed since November and are near a pre-pandemic record.

Graphic: Inflation in central Europe gaining speed - https://graphics.reuters.com/EASTEUROPE-ECONOMY/LABOUR/rlgpddxlqpo/chart.png

WAGES RISING

Companies under pressure to find workers are raising wages further, after years of double-digit pay growth before COVID-19.

Hungarian gross wages jumped by an annual 9.2% in March, while in the Czech Republic nominal gross wages grew by 3.2% in the first quarter. Corporate sector wages in Poland rose by an annual 9.9% in April.

"We try to adjust salaries to the labour market. We are short of employees and it is very difficult for us to find them," said Ryszard Florek, chief executive of Polish window manufacturer Fakro, adding that the company hoped to boost staffing with up to 100 students over the summer holidays.

"Previously, there were many employees on the market who came from tourism and gastronomy ... however, at the moment it is opening up there (as well)."

Florek said employers would inevitably have to pay more and the question was whether wage costs could be passed through into prices or workers replaced with machines.

"Companies that still have ... large possibilities for automation will certainly do it," he said.

($1 = 285.21 forints)

(Reporting by Krisztina Than in Budapest, Alan Charlish in Warsaw and Jason Hovet in Prague; Additional reporting by Paweł Florkiewicz in Warsaw; Editing by Catherine Evans)

Pembina Pipeline to buy 50% stake in Canada's proposed Cedar LNG

(Reuters) - Pembina Pipeline Corp said on Tuesday it would buy a 50% stake in Canada's proposed Cedar LNG Project to develop the floating liquefied natural gas facility in British Columbia in partnership with indigenous group, The Haisla Nation.

Pembina expects to invest about $90 million into Cedar LNG over the next 24 months, including costs to acquire its interest in the project as well as development costs prior to the final investment decision (FID).

The company, which will acquire the equity interests in Cedar LNG from PTE Cedar LP and Delfin Midstream Inc, will operate the project going forward. Haisla will own the remaining 50% stake.

Cedar LNG, which will have LNG liquefaction capacity of about three million tonnes per annum, lies within the traditional territory of the Haisla Nation and aims to provide liquefied natural gas to Asia-Pacific markets.

The estimated gross project cost of Cedar LNG is $2.4 billion, and the FID is expected in 2023.

The investment comes as investors have been pushing for clean energy alternatives to combat climate change. Demand for super-cooled LNG has surged in recent years as large, energy-consuming nations including China and India wean themselves off dirtier coal.

Demand is expected to keep hitting fresh highs, but three North American projects have stopped development in the past few months, as customers remain hesitant to sign long-term purchase agreements needed for financing.

(Reporting by Rithika Krishna in Bengaluru; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi)

Ancient 'Megalake': The Largest Lake Ever Held 10 Times The Water of All Lakes Today

Some 10 million years ago, the Paratethys Sea megalake – the largest lake in Earth's history – covered an area greater than the size of today's Mediterranean Sea. On a modern map, it would stretch from the Alps above Italy to Kazakhstan in central Asia.

© Utrecht University

Until now, little has been known about the ebb and flow of the Paratethys Sea during its lifetime, but a new study identifies four cataclysmic, climate-driven cycles that shrank the lake and most likely killed off a significant number of the species living within it.

The aquatic life in the Paratethys Sea was unique, covering everything from mollusks and crustaceans to small whales and dolphins that evolved to suit their restricted environment. As water levels dropped and salt levels rose, however, very few of these creatures would have survived, the researchers say.

"It must have been a post-apocalyptic prehistoric world, an aquatic version of the wastelands from Mad Max," says geologist Wout Krijgsman from Utrecht University in the Netherlands.




Location map of the ancient Paratethys megalake. (Utrecht University)

Krijgsman and his colleagues studied fossil records, sedimentary deposits, and the geology of the area around the Black Sea (at the center of where the Paratethys Sea used to be) to identify four major dips in the water level over several million years, while also modeling and simulating water levels across the region.

The most severe dip was the last one recorded, between 7.65 million and 7.9 million years ago, previously named the Great Khersonian Drying. During this episode, Paratethys Sea water levels plummeted by as much as 250 meters (820 feet), separating the megalake into mini lakes that at times would likely have been toxic to most aquatic life.

According to the scientists' calculations, the megalake could have lost up to 70 percent of its surface area and up to a third of its volume during these dry periods.

At its peak in terms of capacity, it would've covered an area of some 2.8 million square kilometers (over a million square miles), holding more than 10 times the amount of water that's found in lakes on the planet today.

Temperature and precipitation shifts across Eurasia were also affecting changes on land, with open environments replacing forest environments, and types of woodland changing. How these evolutions fed into and affected each other is yet to be fully figured out.

"The partial megalake desiccations match with climate, food-web, and landscape changes throughout Eurasia, although the exact triggers and mechanisms remain to be resolved," write the researchers in their published paper.

Created from tectonic shifts and the rise of central European mountains, the Paratethys Sea would have survived for around 5 million years in total, the geological record shows, before alterations in the landscape meant it drained away into the Mediterranean.


Above: Cliffs overlooking the Black Sea at Cape Kaliakra, Bulgaria are among the few remains of the ancient megalake.

Another recent study shows how dropping water levels around the Paratethys Sea turned shorelines into grasslands, providing fertile ground for the evolution of land creatures too. In fact, the diversity of the African savannah is likely to be down to migration caused by the major dry periods of this era.

Of course, climate-driven changes in landscapes and wildlife remain a very pertinent topic today, millions of years after the Paratethys Sea dried up – every study like this is a reminder of the very real threat that we face today, and as studies into the past continue, they can tell us more about our future.

"The wider impacts and implications of these hydrological crises, in particular beyond the Paratethys area, are still poorly understood," write the researchers.

The research has been published in Scientific Reports.

Gap is asking shoppers to help de-escalate abuse on retail staff, after a rise in acts of aggression against store workers of color during the pandemic

insider@insider.com (Mary Hanbury) 

© Provided by Business Insider Gap is calling on shoppers to help de-escalate aggressive in-store situations. AP Photo/Mark Lennihan

Gap said it has seen an increase in acts of aggression against its store workers of color.

It will join retailers on a campaign encouraging customers to help de-escalate abusive incidents.

Aggression against store workers became a complex issue over the course of the pandemic.


Gap says it is seeing a rise in acts of aggression against store workers of color and it is calling on shoppers to step up.

The retailer has teamed up with a group of competitors - including H&M, American Eagle, and Ralph Lauren - on a campaign to encourage customers to show support for store workers that face abuse. The campaign also calls on customers to help de-escalate these situations through various methods of distraction, such as pretending to know the worker that is being harassed.

Customers will be invited to sign a pledge to support workers in participating stores and receive more information about how to help. The campaign, which will appear online and on in-store signage, is spearheaded by nonprofits Open to All and Hollaback.

Chris Nelson, senior vice president of asset protection at Gap Inc., told the Associated Press that the chain had seen a rise in aggression against store workers of color during the pandemic.

"We spent a lot of time with COVID-19 responses, but there was another global pandemic - systemic racism," Nelson said. "It is not OK. That is not part of our values."

There has been a rise in acts of aggression against store workers and security guards who have been required to enforce safety measures, such as social distancing and mask-wearing in stores during the pandemic. Workers are often required to make sure new rules are being enforced despite receiving little or no guidance from management on how to handle a volatile person.

According to a statement from Open to All announcing the new campaign, hostility toward workers of color, along with women and LGBT workers, has been especially prevalent during this time.

"Given the rise in hate violence - which is at an all-time high - frontline workers are more vulnerable than ever," Emily May, co-founder and executive director of Hollaback, said in a statement.

Read more: Workers are 'rage quitting' their jobs as a tightening labor market forces employers to take note of unfavorable conditions and low pay

Some commentators have predicted that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's recent relaxing of rules around wearing masks is likely to make the situation worse for store workers this summer.

Larry Barton, a professor of crisis management and public safety at the University of Central Florida, said that conflicts are inevitable because of this.

Workers and business owners are "expected to be referee, pseudo police, and mask enforcer," Barton wrote in a recent email to Insider.

It puts both businesses and workers in a "horrible situation," he said, especially as the former is grappling with labor shortages and trying to attract new workers that have been put off by demanding customers and low pay.

Journalists who fled Myanmar find third-country refuge


Video: U.S. journalists held in a notoriously brutal Myanmar prison (CNN)
Duration 4:49

BANGKOK (AP) — Three journalists from military-ruled Myanmar who were convicted of illegal entry after they fled to Thailand have been sent to a third country where they are safe, their employer said Monday.

© Provided by The Canadian Press

The three staff members of the Democratic Voice of Burma, better known as DVB, were arrested on May 9 in the northern Thai province of Chiang Mai along with two other people from Myanmar described as activists. On May 28, they were each sentenced to a 4,000 baht ($128) fine and seven months’ imprisonment, suspended for a year.

Rights groups and journalists’ associations had urged Thai authorities not to send them back to Myanmar, where it was feared that their safety would be at risk from the authorities. Thailand’s government has relatively cordial relations with Myanmar's military regime.

Myanmar’s junta seized power in February by ousting the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, and has attempted to crush widespread opposition to its takeover with a brutal crackdown that has left hundreds dead. It has tried to silence independent news media by withdrawing their licenses and by arresting journalists.

All five people convicted in Chiang Mai of illegal entry left Thailand recently for the third country, Aye Chan Naing, DVB’s executive director and chief editor, said in an emailed statement. He said, without elaborating, that he could not mention where they had been sent “as the entire case remains very sensitive.”

He expressed gratitude to “everyone in Thailand and around the world that helped to make their safe passage possible and for campaigning for a positive outcome,” and said the employees would resume their duties in the near future after “recovering from their ordeal."

At least two other DVB journalists have been sentenced to prison for their reporting. DVB, an independent broadcast and online news agency, was among five local media outlets that were banned in March from broadcasting or publishing after their licenses were canceled. Like other banned media outlets, it continued operating.

According to Myanmar’s Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, about 90 journalists have been arrested since the takeover, with more than half still in detention, and 33 in hiding. Those still being held include two U.S. citizens, Danny Fenster and Nathan Maung, who worked for Myanmar media.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. has had contact with Maung in detention but has not yet had consular access to Fenster. “We are pressing this in every way that we can,” Blinken said in congressional testimony Monday in Washington.

He reiterated the U.S. was working on trying to bring the detained journalists home.

Fenster, the managing editor of the news and business magazine Frontier Myanmar, was detained at the Yangon airport while trying to head to the Detroit area to see his family.

Maung is editor in chief of the Myanmar news website Kamayut Media. New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists, citing accounts in Myanmar media, said he was arrested in March.

The Associated Press

G7 countries devise way to catch Amazon in tax net - sources

PARIS (Reuters) - G7 states have found a way to include Amazon, one of the world's biggest companies, on a list of 100 set to face higher taxes in the countries where they do business by targeting its more profitable cloud computing unit, officials close to the talks said.

© Reuters/Pascal Rossignol FILE PHOTO: The logo of Amazon is seen at the company logistics center in Lauwin-Planque, northern France

Some European countries had concerns that Amazon may fall out of scope of the proposed new rules because its overall operating margin as a company is less than 10%, which is the threshold set as a criteria for companies on the list.


But because its Amazon Web Services (AWS) business has a margin of more than 30%, Amazon as a whole can be included, the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters.

International talks on a global minimum corporate tax which was agreed by the Group of Seven rich countries on June 5. are running in parallel to of talks on how to divide the rights to tax excess profits, those which can be considered routine, of the world's 100 biggest, most profitable companies.

G7 finance ministers agreed that governments should get the right to tax at least 20% of profit earned in their country by a multinational, when this profit was over a 10% margin.

"We now decided that if a corporation as a whole does not reach the profitability limit, but a large division of it exceeds the G7 thresholds, it must be included," a source close to the discussions said.

"With this, we're aiming exactly at Amazon," the source added.

Amazon did not immediately respond to requests to comment.

Without singling out Amazon, a British government source familiar with the negotiations said consideration was being given to how the rules would apply to companies that had different activities and business lines.

OECD head of tax Pascal Saint-Amans said that Amazon's AWS unit would be liable because it had revenues exceeding a threshold of 20 billion euros ($24.4 billion).

"The profits linked to the cloud (business) will thus be shared among countries," he told France Info television.

($1 = 0.8214 euros)

(Reporting by Leigh Thomas; Additional reporting by David Milliken in London; Editing by Alexander Smith)

German researcher may have found Canadian bomber crew missing for 7 decades

Video: Canadian mystery solved by recovery of WWII bomber in the Netherlands (Global News)


A German researcher believes a mislabelled grave may be the reason a Canadian Lancaster bomber crew has been missing for more than 75 years.

© Photo by S A Devon/ Imperial War Museums via Getty Images A Lancaster bomber, 1944

The tombstone in the German village of Auerstedt states, "an unknown American soldier killed in March 1945," but researcher René Schütz believes local villagers actually buried Canadian airmen, and he says he has the evidence to prove it.

Read more: Ontario airmen lost in Second World War bombing raid to be laid to rest

Schütz is with Vermisstensuche Thüringen, a group that searches for missing airmen from the Second World War. Its members have spent the last year looking at the story of the Auerstedt grave.

"It was clear from the beginning it wasn't an American," Schütz says.

The region around Auerstedt was an important target for allied Bomber Command during the war. Dozens of missions were sent out to hit oil refineries important to the Nazi war effort.

According to local legend, an allied bomber crashed outside the village in March 1945, but before it went down, one member of the crew jumped out. He died when his parachute didn't open. The rest of the crew was still in the plane when it hit the ground, and the bombs it was carrying exploded.

Schütz says he spoke to eyewitnesses who are still alive. They reported that local villagers buried the body of the crewman who jumped from the plane, but also buried the human remains they found at the crash site.

"They gathered all the remains from the debris field," Schütz says. "They buried those with the remains of the complete airman."

Schütz says there are remnants of the aircraft still at the crash site outside town that prove the aircraft was a Lancaster bomber — a plane the American military didn't fly.

After looking at the type of aircraft, the location of the crash, and the date it went down, Schütz believes the plane and the crew were, in fact, Canadian.

Schütz's group took their findings to local authorities and were given permission to exhume the grave on March 13. He says they found exactly what they expected.

"The complete remains of one dead man were found, along with a small coffin that contained the remains of an undetermined number of dead," Schütz says.

Those remains were handed over to the German War Graves Commission for analysis.

The Commonwealth Graves Commission confirms it's working with German officials and has notified Canada.

"The Canadian authorities are aware of the case, but it is far too early to speculate as to the nature or nationality of the recovered remains," the commission said in a statement to Global News.

A spokesperson with Canada's Department of National Defence says it's holding off until German officials officially link the remains to Canada. If that happens, the Canadian Armed Forces' Casualty Identification Program would review the case. The process could take several years.

One thing Schütz hopes can speed up the process is something recovered in the grave. Canadian soldiers wore identity discs during the two world wars — basically an early version of military dog tags.

When exhuming the grave, the team recovered what appears to be a fragment of a disc with three letters, CAN. Schütz says that was an abbreviation used for Canada, and proves his theory is correct.

"It was very emotional for our whole team," he says.

Schütz believes he knows which aircraft crew he's found. He's chosen not to make that public for now. But there is only one plane missing without a trace that was on a bombing mission in that region of Germany in mid-March 1945.

Canadian military historian David O'Keefe says it's still early in the process, but Schütz's discovery could be important.

"If all the evidence is there, and it does conclusively prove that this was the aircraft, this is huge," O'Keefe says. "Not just for Canada and Canadians, but also the families."

Representative for 17,000 Sears Canada retirees says insolvency laws are unjust


TORONTO — A court-appointed representative for Sears Canada retirees says Canada's bankruptcy laws should be changed to prevent financial hardship for members of other underfunded pension plans.

 Provided by The Canadian Press

Kenneth Eady says it is unfair that banks receive more protection than pensioners under Canadaian bankruptcy and insolvency legislation.

Eady says Parliament should pass a Bloc Québécois bill to amend the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act and the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act.

He's one of several witnesses who have appeared before members of the four major parties studying a private member's bill from Bloc MP Marilène Gill.

Gill wants underfunded pension plans to receive similar priority as banks when bankruptcy courts determine how to divide a company's assets.

In the Sears Canada case, there wasn't enough money to fund pension shortfalls after debts to banks and were repaid ahead of other classes of creditors

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 8, 2021.

The Canadian Press

Most Americans are not getting enough fiber in our diets

Just 7% of adults meet fiber recommendations, raising risk of chronic diseases

AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR NUTRITION

Research News

 

IMAGE: AVERAGE DAILY FIBER INTAKE (IN GRAMS OF FIBER PER 1,000 CALORIES CONSUMED) AMONG U.S. ADULTS BY GENDER AND DIABETES STATUS. view more 

CREDIT: DEREK MIKETINAS, TEXAS WOMAN'S UNIVERSITY

Rockville, Maryland (June 7, 2021) -- Only 5% of men and 9% of women are getting the recommended daily amount of dietary fiber, according to a study being presented at NUTRITION 2021 LIVE ONLINE. Insufficient fiber intake is associated with a higher risk of heart disease and diabetes, two of the most common diseases in the U.S.

"These findings should remind people to choose fiber-rich foods like whole grains, fruits and vegetables to reduce their risk for heart disease," said Derek Miketinas, PhD, RD, an assistant professor at Texas Woman's University, the study's lead author. "Based on our findings, fewer than 1 in 10 U.S. adults meet their daily recommendations for fiber intake. For those with diabetes, it is especially important to eat enough fiber since they are at a greater risk for heart disease."

Fiber is a type of carbohydrate that passes through the body undigested. Though perhaps best known for its role in supporting regular bowel movements, fiber also carries important benefits for cardiovascular health. Studies suggest dietary fiber can help lower cholesterol, blood pressure and inflammation and help prevent diabetes. It can also improve blood sugar levels for people with diabetes.

The researchers analyzed data from more than 14,600 U.S. adults who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) between 2013-2018. Fiber intake was assessed using dietary questionnaires; diabetes status was self-reported and also assessed with hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels. Researchers only analyzed fiber intake from dietary sources, excluding fiber supplements.

"Unlike other similar studies, our analysis estimated Americans' usual fiber intake using advanced statistical methods instead of calculating a simple average," said Miketinas. "This approach is a better indicator of what a person typically eats because it can account for other factors that may influence fiber intake."

Health guidelines recommend eating 14 grams of fiber for every 1,000 calories consumed (g/1,000 kcal) daily. On average, women in the study consumed 9.9 g/1,000 kcal and men consumed 8.7 g/1,000 kcal. Among those with diabetes, women consumed 10.3 g/1,000 kcal and men consumed 9.6 g/1,000 kcal, higher than average but still falling short of recommendations.

To get the right amount of fiber, the typical woman should aim for about 25 grams (for a 2,000 calorie diet), while men should aim for 38 grams (for a 2,500 calorie diet), with lower targets for those over age 50. This typically requires a good mix of fruits, vegetables and whole grains. For perspective, choosing a whole grain such as pearled barley will provide 6 grams of fiber per cup compared to less than 2 grams of fiber in white rice.

In addition to shedding light on Americans' eating habits, Miketinas said the new findings can help inform future research into chronic disease prevention.

"The results of this study can be used to identify relationships between dietary fiber intake and outcomes of interest like risk factors for heart disease," said Miketinas. "In fact, our preliminary analysis suggests that higher dietary fiber intake in adults with diabetes is strongly associated with reductions in markers for heart and kidney disease."

Miketinas will present this research in an on-demand poster session during NUTRITION 2021 LIVE ONLINE from noon on Monday, June 7 through 5:30 p.m. on Friday, June 10 (abstract; presentation details).

Images available.

Please note that abstracts presented at NUTRITION 2021 LIVE ONLINE were evaluated and selected by a committee of experts but have not generally undergone the same peer review process required for publication in a scientific journal. As such, the findings presented should be considered preliminary until a peer-reviewed publication is available.

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About NUTRITION 2021 LIVE ONLINE

NUTRITION 2021 LIVE ONLINE, held June 7-10, 2021 is a dynamic virtual event showcasing new research findings and timely discussions on food and nutrition. Scientific symposia explore hot topics including clinical and translational nutrition, food science and systems, global and public health, population science and cellular and physiological nutrition and metabolism. https://meeting.nutrition.org #NutritionLiveOnline

About the American Society for Nutrition (ASN)

ASN is the preeminent professional organization for nutrition research scientists and clinicians around the world. Founded in 1928, the society brings together the top nutrition researchers, medical practitioners, policy makers and industry leaders to advance our knowledge and application of nutrition. ASN publishes four peer-reviewed journals and provides education and professional development opportunities to advance nutrition research, practice and education. http://www.nutrition.org

Find more news briefs and tipsheets at: https://www.eurekalert.org/meetings/nutrition/2021/newsroom. Watch on-demand sessions, view posters and more by registering for a free pass to attend the virtual meeting.

CO2 sensors in two urban areas registered big drop in emissions during COVID-19 pandemic

Scientists show they can reliably track changes in urban emissions by directly measuring CO2 in the air above cities

NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STANDARDS AND TECHNOLOGY (NIST)

VIDEO: THE NIST GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) MEASUREMENTS PROGRAM DEVELOPS ADVANCED TOOLS AND STANDARDS FOR ACCURATELY MEASURING GHG EMISSIONS SO INDUSTRIES AND GOVERNMENTS WILL HAVE THE INFORMATION THEY NEED TO MANAGE EMISSIONS... view more 

CREDIT: NIST

Carbon dioxide emissions in Los Angeles fell 33% in April of 2020 compared with previous years, as roads emptied and economic activity slowed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new study in Geophysical Research Letters. In the Washington, D.C./Baltimore region, emissions of carbon dioxide, or CO2, dropped by 34% during the same period.

The study was led by scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the University of Notre Dame.

While the emissions reductions are significant, the method that scientists used to measure them may have the greater long-term impact.

In both locations, scientists had previously installed networks of sensors on rooftops and towers to monitor the concentration of CO2 in the air. They used the data from those sensor networks to estimate the drop in emissions.

This might seem an obvious way to estimate emissions, but this is not how it's usually done. Most cities estimate their emissions by tallying up the effects of activities that cause emissions, such as the number of vehicle miles traveled or the square footage of buildings heated and cooled. These are called "bottom up" methods because they are mostly based on activities on the ground.

This new study demonstrates that "top-down" methods, based on measuring the concentration of CO2 in the air, can produce reliable emissions estimates. Scientists were able to test those methods when emissions suddenly dropped due to COVID-19.

"This was a completely unanticipated experiment, and one we don't ever want to do again," said lead author and JPL data scientist Vineet Yadav. "But our results show that we were able to detect the onset of emissions reductions to within a few days."

Scientists have been developing top-down methods for measuring CO2 emissions for several years. "This study shows that the technology has matured enough to produce reliable results and can be put into operation," said NIST scientist and co-author Kimberly Mueller. That would give cities an important new tool in their efforts to reduce emissions.

Top-down estimates are difficult to achieve because most of the CO2 in the air above cities is not from local emissions. Most of it is there naturally, and some is emitted outside the city's borders and comes in on the wind. The trick is to figure out how much of the CO2 in the air above the city was generated locally.

"My Ph.D. adviser used to describe the atmosphere as a big cup of coffee," said Mueller. "You've added cream, and you're trying to unstir the coffee to see where and when you put the cream in."

To unstir the atmospheric coffee, scientists used data on wind speed, direction and other factors. This allowed them to estimate where within a city the emissions originated and how large they were.

Though difficult to achieve, top-down measurements have several advantages. First, they can provide relatively quick feedback on whether efforts to reduce emissions are working. If a city changes traffic patterns or increases public transit, for instance, top-down estimates can provide data on whether those efforts actually lead to reduced emissions.

CAPTION

The NIST Greenhouse Gas Measurements Program develops advanced tools and standards for accurately measuring GHG emissions.

CREDIT

N. Hanacek, J. Wang/NIST

In addition, a recent study, also co-authored by Mueller, indicated that U.S. cities often underestimate their emissions when using bottom-up methods alone. Another recent study showed that combining bottom-up with top-down methods increases accuracy. (Both studies were partly funded by NIST.)

"Accurate measurements are key to any strategy for managing greenhouse gas emissions," said James Whetstone, leader of NIST's greenhouse gas measurements group and a co-author of the study. "That's the only way to know if you are making progress toward your goals."

NIST, NASA and other research partners are using the sensor networks in Los Angeles and the Washington, D.C./Baltimore region to develop and test top-down methods as a way of achieving more accurate emissions estimates. This research project focuses on cities in part because cities account for a large and growing share of the world's CO2 emissions.

The 33% and 34% emissions drops in Los Angeles and the D.C./Baltimore region represent reductions relative to the average April emissions of the previous two years. The researchers used three different methods for detecting the change in emissions based on atmospheric measurements, all of which detected the drop occurring at the same time.

"These independent statistical tests on different pieces of the puzzle gave consistent results," said Notre Dame computational scientist and coauthor Subhomoy Ghosh. "This gives us confidence in the findings."

In addition, the methods appeared to work well in both locations, despite very different environmental conditions. In Los Angeles, relatively clean air comes in off the Pacific. D.C. and Baltimore, on the other hand, regularly receive emissions from cities and power plants to the west. Also in D.C. and Baltimore, emissions models have to account for the effects of spring, when plants turn green again and start pulling CO2 from the air. Los Angeles experiences less seasonal variation in uptake by plants.

"These methods were robust enough to work in very different settings," Mueller said. "The fact that these methods worked in both locations mean the results were not a fluke."

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Paper: V. Yadav, S. Ghosh, K. Mueller, A. Karion, G. Roest, S.M. Gourdji, I. Lopez-Coto, K. R. Gurney, N. Parazoo, K.R. Verhulst, J. Kim, S. Prinzivalli, C. Fain, T. Nehrkorn, M. Mountain, R.F. Keeling, R.F. Weiss, R. Duren, C.E. Miller and J. Whetstone. The impact of COVID-19 on CO2 emissions in the Los Angeles and Washington DC/Baltimore metropolitan areas. Geophysical Research Letters. Published online June 7, 2021. DOI: 10.1029/2021GL092744