A large number of European and international heads of state and government will this week descend on Bavaria for the Munich Security Conference (MSC), which takes place from 13 to 15 February.
Around 65 heads of state and government are expected to attend, alongside some 450 representatives from global politics, academia and the defence industry.
In the foreword to the newly released 2026 MSC report, conference chair Wolfgang Ischinger writes that "rarely in the conference's recent history have there been so many fundamental questions on the table at the same time".
He points to core issues such as Europe's security, the future of the transatlantic partnership, and whether the international community is still capable of managing an increasingly "complex and contested" world
The report portrays a world in the midst of far-reaching political, economic and security upheaval. At its centre is a diagnosis that sets the tone for the entire document and the conference itself: "The world has entered a period of wrecking-ball politics."
'Reassurance, conditionality and coercion'
According to the report, cautious reforms and incremental policy adjustments are increasingly giving way to more radical restructuring that deliberately calls existing systems into question, or even seeks to dismantle them.
The country most prominently associated with this shift, it argues, is the United States. The very state that played a decisive role in building the post-war international order is now seen as one of the main drivers of its transformation. More than 80 years after it first took shape, that order is itself now "under destruction".
The report stresses that this is not just about individual policy decisions, but about a broader change in direction in US politics.
Washington, it argues, is challenging core principles that have shaped international cooperation for decades, from the role of international organisations and the importance of rules-based trade to close partnerships with democratic allies.
The effects of this shift are being felt worldwide, but especially in Europe, which has long relied on the US for security but which now experiences its partnership as "unsteady", shifting between "reassurance, conditionality, and coercion".
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to attend this year's conference. According to media reports, Vice President J.D. Vance's participation was initially confirmed, then cancelled a week later.
His speech at last year's conference was widely described as a "reckoning with Europe" and drew criticism from several politicians, including Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Defence Minister Boris Pistorius.
Chancellor Merz will lead this year's German delegation. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and numerous European heads of state and government are also expected to attend.
Rubio will attend "with a large delegation", and US congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has also confirmed her participation.
At the conference kick-off, US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker commented on the report's findings, rejecting its conclusions and stressing that the US has no intention of undermining NATO or other alliances.
"That's the first thing I reject; we're trying to make NATO stronger, not to withdraw or reject NATO, but make it work like it was intended as an alliance of 32 strong and capable allies," he said.
He reiterated that European allies must increase their defence spending and demonstrate that they can "deliver" on their commitments, including the new NATO spending targets.
Erosion of trust
Another key finding of the MSC report is a growing loss of trust in political systems. In many Western countries in particular, confidence is visibly declining.
Politicians are increasingly seen as "guardians of the status quo", "administering paralysed political systems that appear unresponsive to the majority of people". As faith in politics' ability to improve everyday life wanes, the report argues, electorates start to become open to more radical approaches. For many, abrupt breaks begin to seem more appealing than gradual change.
As a result, political actors who deliberately embrace confrontation and promise to tear down existing structures rather than reform them are gaining influence.
Before the conference, there was debate over whether the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) should be invited. Ischinger takes the view that the party should be included as long as it is not banned by the German authorities, and three AfD policy specialists, including Bundestag member Rüdiger Lucassen, are now set to attend.
Alongside the transatlantic relationship, the MSC report also addresses Russia's war on Ukraine and the associated hybrid threats facing Europe. It argues that Europe must prepare for a situation in which American support remains important, but can no longer be taken for granted.
Many European governments are therefore taking a dual-track approach: keeping the US closely engaged while at the same time building up greater capacity to act independently, for example through rearmament.
The report stresses that this sense of uncertainty is not only limited to Europe. In the Indo-Pacific, doubts are growing about the US' long-term commitment to the regional security order, while China's rise and "increasingly coercive behaviour" are contributing to a more "unstable" environment.
At the same time, the report also frames the current upheaval as an opportunity, noting that when old structures are shaken, "long-blocked" developments can begin to move again.
For instance, pressure on European NATO members has led many countries to significantly increase their defence spending. New partnerships are also emerging in trade, security and technology to end Europe's dependence on the US.
Yet whether this will ultimately lead to a more stable world remains uncertain – and many of the heads of government gathering in Munich this weekend worry that a looser global order could primarily benefit the largest and most powerful states.
'Under destruction': Europe's future
security in question at Munich conference
Global movers and shakers are gathering in southern Germany for the 62nd Munich Security Conference (MSC), which opens on Friday in the shadow of what its own report calls an international order “under destruction”.
Issued on: 13/02/2026 - RFI
A copy of the Munich Security Report 2026, on display during a press conference in Berlin, Germany, on 9 February 2026. © Liesa Johannssen / Reuters
By:Jan van der Made
Organisers expect more than 60 heads of state and government, and around 100 foreign and defence ministers, to gather in Munich's Bayerischer Hof from Friday through Sunday. In total, more than 1,000 delegates from 120 countries are set to attend.
The 2026 Munich Security Report, titled “Under Destruction” and published last Monday, sets a stark tone.
It argues that the post-1945 order led by the United States is now being actively dismantled by “wrecking-ball politics” – not only by revisionist powers, but by movements inside Western democracies that favour demolition over reform.
The most powerful of the “demolition men”, it contends, is US President Donald Trump, whose administration has slashed foreign aid, walked away from key multilateral bodies and imposed sweeping tariffs that defy World Trade Organization rules.
President Donald Trump speaks during an event to announce new tariffs at the White House, on 2 April 2025. @ AP - Mark Schiefelbein
According to the report, Trump’s second term has seen a “renunciation of core elements” of traditional US strategy: faith in multilateral institutions, support for an open trading system, and the role of “leader of the free world”.
Instead, it sketches an emerging order of transactional deals, regional spheres of influence and “neo-royalist” elites, in which private interests increasingly trump public ones.
How Trump’s trade threats have reshaped Europe’s global strategy
European dependence
For Europeans, Munich comes at a moment the report describes as “a prolonged era of confrontation”.
Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, now approaching its fourth year, has shattered the post-Cold War security settlement, while Moscow steps up hybrid operations across the continent from cyber attacks to sabotage.
At the same time, Washington’s “gradual retreat, wavering support for Ukraine, and threatening rhetoric on Greenland” have exposed Europe’s dependence on the US security umbrella, according to the MSC report.
It notes that US military assistance to Ukraine has dropped sharply since early 2025, forcing European allies and partners to shoulder most of the burden – including via a new NATO mechanism that channels European funds into US-made weapons for Kyiv.
Europe’s defence dilemma: autonomy or dependence?
European leaders will arrive in Munich keen to show they are finally shifting from “security consumers” to security providers, pointing to steep increases in defence spending and efforts to coordinate industrial policy.
But the report warns of “multiple speeds” within Europe, as fiscally stronger northern and eastern states surge ahead while more indebted southern economies struggle with the new informal NATO goal to spend 5 percent of GDP on defence by 2035.
Beyond Europe, the report highlights China's economic and military dominance in Asia. It contrasts Washington's growing unease over Chinese pressure on Taiwan and in the South China Sea with US policies that hover between confrontational language, harsh tariffs and overtures to Beijing.
Chinese structures on the man-made Fiery Cross Reef in the disputed Spratlys group of islands in the South China Sea, on 20 March 2022. @ AP - Aaron Favila
Major test
The MSC report notes that in most NATO countries surveyed, majorities now see the US as a less reliable ally, and the West as less united than a decade ago.
The conference will again be a major test of transatlantic ties.
Last year’s incendiary appearance by Vice-President JD Vance, who claimed that mass immigration posed the most urgent danger to Europe, shocked many in the hall. This year, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio heads a large US delegation that includes some 50 members of Congress.
United States Vice-President JD Vance addresses the Munich Security Conference on 14 February 2025. @ AP - Matthias Schrader
Some 5,000 police officers will be on duty in Munich, with reinforcements from France, Austria, Switzerland and the Netherlands. Airspace over the city will be closed for the duration of the event.
Outside the secure zone, 21 demonstrations are officially planned, including two large rallies against Iran’s government and a separate protest by opponents of the conference itself that could draw up to 4,000 people on Saturday.
Police also expect significant numbers of people for the Iran protests, with demonstrators arriving from across Europe.
Europe set to 'circumvent America' as they do not trust Trump after 'betrayal': analysis
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (not pictured) and European leaders amid negotiations to end the Russian war in Ukraine, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., August 18, 2025. REUTERS/Al Drago
European nations may be set to freeze out the United States following Donald Trump's push to take control of Greenland, a political commentator has claimed.
Colonel Robert Hamlin believes NATO members, European countries, and world leaders are wary of Trump after his Donbas showmanship. Leaders will meet at a summit in Munich, Germany, later this month to deliberate on world affairs, and the US may find itself frozen out of such a conversation.
Col. Hamlin believes this could be a direct response from Europe after Trump tried to strongarm his way into ownership of Greenland. He wrote in The Hill, "As the grandees of geopolitics gather in Munich, the realization is dawning that there is not much to be done about Trump. Until voters rein him in, the goal will be to circumvent America and preserve what can be preserved.
"The question is whether there will be enough trust left whenever the U.S. comes to its senses and returns to the table. After the monumental Trump betrayal, that is not at all so clear."
The meeting could also see world leaders reduce their reliance on the US, with Col. Hamlin suggesting those countries meeting in Munich will try their best to stick to the rules.
"America’s erstwhile allies will try to preserve as much of the rules-based order as possible, reduce their vulnerability to U.S. coercion, and at least try to keep the door open for America to return if and when it chooses to do so," he wrote.
"But expect also economic and strategic workarounds, and the beginning of a campaign to project to American voters, with an eye to November, that their clueless leadership is engaged in terrible self-harm.
"The dense web of institutions and alliances built after World War II were not only primarily underwritten by the U.S., but also arguably made it the main beneficiary. This reality clashes violently with Trump’s narrative — cynical and seductive, but also stupid — that our allies have taken us for suckers." 
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Wine producers and buyers meet at Wine Paris, held February 9–11, 2026, as the French wine industry confronts falling exports and US trade tariffs. AFP - PIERRE ANDRIEU
