Electric Vehicles and the Untold Secret: Are They Actually Worse For The Environment and More Dangerous Than Gas?



Amir Bakian
Thu, February 23, 2023

Electric vehicles (EVs) are all the rage. They are touted as a cleaner and more sustainable alternative to gasoline-powered vehicles. The United States government has passed numerous legislative actions to phase out gas-powered vehicles and make sure that, within the near term, all vehicles are electric.

The common belief is that electric vehicles are more environmentally friendly and, in general, a safer form of energy. The dark secret: neither are true.

Currently the gold standard for all major electronic products, EV’s included, are batteries which are made of lithium-ion. The inventor of lithium-ion himself, after receiving the Nobel Prize, warned the world of the dangerous of lithium-ion batteries. So what are they?

Environmental Impact

The main concern associated with lithium-ion batteries is the mining of the raw materials needed to produce them, which can have significant environmental impacts. Lithium is typically extracted from salt flats, which can disrupt local ecosystems and contaminate groundwater. Cobalt and nickel, which are also used in lithium-ion batteries, are typically mined in countries with lax environmental and labor standards, which can lead to environmental damage and human rights abuses.


The production of lithium-ion batteries also requires a significant amount of energy, which is typically generated from non-renewable sources such as coal and natural gas. This means that the production of EVs can actually result in higher greenhouse gas emissions than the production of gas-powered vehicles.

Coal and natural gas, required to generate the power that charges lithium-ion batteries, are supplied through plants which themselves are releasing dangerous toxic waste, in some cases more that just burning regular gasoline.

Then there is the decomposition period. How long does it take for that used lithium-ion battery to decompose? Five years? 10? The answer: 100 years or more . Simply put, for 100 years after a battery has been used up it is slowing releasing potentially toxic byproducts into the environment, causing potentially more pollutants and more damage than traditional gasoline.

When these batteries are no longer useful, they can release toxic chemicals into the environment if they are not disposed of properly. This can lead to soil and water pollution, as well as harm to human health.

Another major drawback of lithium-ion batteries is their limited lifespan. Over time, the performance of the battery deteriorates, and eventually, it needs to be replaced. The lifespan of a battery depends on a variety of factors, including the number of charge and discharge cycles it undergoes, the temperature at which it operates, and how it is used. For example, exposing a battery to high temperatures or overcharging it can significantly reduce its lifespan. This leads to a continuous stream of battery waste that needs to be properly disposed of or recycled. The recycling process for lithium-ion batteries is also energy-intensive and can release toxic chemicals into the environment if not done properly.

But there is more.

THE DANGERS OF LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES

I am going to make a bold statement, but one that is true. Electric vehicles are basically a bomb on wheels, because of the lithium-ion batteries. I am sure its not a popular statement, but a factual one nonetheless.

Lithium-ion batteries, as confirmed by its own inventor, are seriously flawed and seriously dangerous.

Lithium-ion battery fires occur due to a number of factors, including manufacturing defects, physical damage, overcharging or overheating, and exposure to high temperatures or fire. A lithium-ion battery is more dangerous that an open gas tank filled with gas. Not only can the smallest penetration cause them to explode, a minor overheat, or even outside temperatures being to high, the real danger comes once it catches fire. A lithium-ion battery fire releases large amounts of heat, smoke, and toxic gases, which can pose a serious risk to human health and the environment.

One of the main reasons why lithium-ion fires are so dangerous is the rapid rate at which they can release energy. When a lithium-ion battery ignites, the heat generated can cause the electrolyte to break down, releasing large amounts of oxygen and hydrogen gas. This reaction can cause the battery to rupture or explode, releasing even more heat and toxic gases.
Once they catch fire the real problem begins

We have all seen race cars with fire extinguishers inside. In fact many older cars had small fire extinguishers just in case and many of us have emergency preparation kits in our trunks with a small fire extinguisher. Whether gas or powder, they do not work on lithium-ion fires. Rather, they will make them worse. Lithium-ion fires are nearly impossible to extinguish. Traditional methods of fire suppression, such as water or foam, are ineffective: they make the fire worse as these materials can cause the battery to release even more flammable gases, which can reignite and cause the fire to spread.

In general, when a lithium-ion battery catches fire, it can release large amounts of heat, smoke, and toxic gases, which can pose a serious risk to human health and the environment.

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has conducted tests on lithium-ion battery fires in electric vehicles and found that these fires can reach temperatures of over 1,000 degrees Celsius (1,832 degrees Fahrenheit) and burn for hours or even days. In some cases, the duration and intensity of a lithium-ion fire depends mostly on the number of batteries in the car.

So how many batteries are in an average electric car?

Since Tesla’s are by far the most popular EV I decided to look at the Tesla models to see how many total batteries are in one car.

The Model S and Model X battery packs contain over 7,000 individual cells (batteries), while the Model 3 battery pack contains around 4,000 cells (Batteries). You read that right between 4,000 and 7,000 batteries.

The smallest of car accidents, a hot day, an internal leak, a nail that fell onto the highway and finds its way into the undercarriage can trigger just one of the 4,000-7,000 batteries, and once one battery goes, they all go: a 1,000 degree plus chemical fire that cannot be put out by any traditional method and burns for hours or days.

Furthermore, the toxic gases released by lithium-ion battery fires can pose a serious risk to human health. These gases can include carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, and hydrogen fluoride, which can cause respiratory problems, skin and eye irritation, and other health effects.

IF NOT GAS AND NOT LITHIUM-ION, THEN WHAT?

The race to find a new form of energy to replace lithium-ion is the trillion dollar race. Everything from cold-fusion to the idea of a “perpetual battery” is being worked on. The biggest names in technology are all in a race to solve this problem. Bill Gates is one of them.

Bill Gates recently took a company public called QuantumScape, a company who’s goal is to create a “solid-state battery”. They have raised billions of dollars of capital and currently have a market cap of $20 billion. What have they accomplished? As of today QuantumScape’s battery is more theoretical than executable.

QuantumScape’s mission statement is to create a solid-state battery that use a unique architecture and proprietary materials to achieve a number of advantages over conventional lithium-ion batteries. For example, solid-state batteries are expected to have higher energy density, which means they can store more energy in the same amount of space. This could enable longer driving ranges for electric vehicles, as well as longer run times for portable electronics.

In addition, solid-state batteries are expected to be safer than lithium-ion batteries, which can be prone to thermal runaway and catching fire. Solid-state batteries are less likely to catch fire and are less likely to release toxic chemicals or gases if they do catch fire.

While an exciting prospect, there has been no indication that QuantamScape has a plan to put its technology or batteries in mass production.

THE HOLY GRAIL? GRAPHENE

Graphene is a two-dimensional material consisting of a single layer of carbon atoms arranged in a hexagonal lattice. It is incredibly strong, lightweight, and conductive, making it an ideal material for a wide range of applications.

Graphene is an excellent conductor of electricity, meaning that it can facilitate faster charging times. It is also much more durable than graphite, meaning that batteries made with graphene anodes could have longer lifespans. Furthermore, graphene can store more energy than graphite, making it possible to create batteries with higher energy densities.

Another advantage of using graphene in batteries is that it is a more environmentally friendly material than the metals and other materials used in current lithium-ion batteries. Graphene is made from carbon, which is a readily available and abundant resource, whereas many of the metals used in lithium-ion batteries are scarce and expensive.

There are dozens of companies who are working on “Graphene Batteries”. The biggest challenge that these companies face is that Graphene only works in its purest form, that is a single layer of carbon. Many companies can make graphene in multiple lawyers, which is simply a fancy word for graphite. And while it has many uses once an additional lawyer is added its conductivity and properties that make it an attractive alternative are significantly diminished. But there is one company who has figured out how to mass produce graphene and is quickly pulling out front from the pole position, Nanotech Energy.

Nanotech Energy has been making headlines in the tech world for its game-changing work in the realm of battery production. The company’s patented graphene manufacturing technology has positioned it as the exclusive owner of a key material for the creation of safer, more efficient, and faster-charging batteries. Nanotech Energy holds the very first patent for graphene, which was created by one of the most recognized scientists of our time, Rick Kanner.

Kanner patented the only known manner to chemically create graphene, which means the only way to mass produce graphene, which was the foundation of the launch of the company Nanotech Energy.

Kanner is a prominent researcher and inventor in the field of nanotechnology, and he is widely known for his pioneering work in the development of graphene. Kanner is also the holder of the patent for graphene, which is a groundbreaking material that has the potential to revolutionize a wide range of industries.

Kanner’s interest in graphene dates back to the 1970s, when he was studying for his PhD in solid state physics at the University of Pittsburgh. During this time, he became interested in the properties of carbon-based materials and began to explore the potential uses of graphene. Over the years, Kanner continued to study and refine his techniques for producing graphene, and he eventually developed a method for creating high-quality graphene sheets that was both scalable and cost-effective.

Kanner’s groundbreaking work in the field of graphene has been recognized by his peers, and he has received numerous awards and accolades for his contributions to the field of nanotechnology. In addition to his work on graphene, Kanner has also conducted research in a wide range of other areas, including superconductivity, photonics, and quantum mechanics.

Perhaps most important is that he patented the process for creating graphene in 2002, prior to the world even acknowledging the existence of graphene, and that along with dozens of other patents are held by Nanotech energy.

Nanotech Energy has been rapidly expanding its reach in the battery industry, securing close to $1 billion in contracts for its revolutionary technology from household names. The company recently purchased a 500 acre plot in Nevada and has begun construction on phase one of its new Graphene factory and rolling out the first graphene powered batteries the world has seen.

Nanotech Energy has already rolled out five generations of batteries and they are currently providing batteries to some of the biggest companies in the world. Nanotech has safety tested their batteries and shown them to be non-combustible, and have the high safety rating one can achieve. They store more energy, charge faster, do not lose their charge ability and do not have the negative environmental impact of their lithium-ion counterparts.

Nanotech Energy’s main facilities are in Chico, California, but they have recently expanded into Nevada where they are building what is believed to be the largest graphene producing facility in the world.

The future of energy storage is set to be transformed by Nanotech Energy’s revolutionary graphene-based batteries. With enhanced safety features, faster charging times, and longer-lasting performance, these batteries offer a significant advancement over conventional lithium-ion batteries. As the company moves towards mass production, the possibilities for the future of battery technology are endless.

The race to fix the lithium-ion debacle is on.

According to Grand View Research, the global battery market size was valued at $77.42 billion in 2020 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2% from 2021 to 2028. Other reports suggest that the market size could be even larger, with some estimates projecting it to reach over $100 billion by 2025.

Who gets there first is up in the air, but it seems that Nanotech Energy is far ahead of the pack, and with $100 billion a year up for grabs, this is surely going to be front and center sooner than later.

McClatchy newsroom and editorial staff were not involved in the creation of this content.

After Aeromar's grounding, Mexico's aviation workers see turbulent horizon


Workers of the airline Aeromar hold a banner that reads "Ground personnel in support of pilots",at the Benito Juarez International Airport

Thu, February 23, 2023 
By Kylie Madry

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - After Mexican regional carrier Aeromar shuttered its operations last week, workers in the country's aviation sector are bracing for more turbulence as financial, legislative and safety barriers pile on.

While the heavily indebted Aeromar was a relatively small operation compared to peers, its closing is a symptom of a national problem, the flight attendants' union said Thursday, after a string of other airlines have closed.

In total, Aeromar left behind debts of around 7 billion pesos ($381.28 million), the union said, citing lawyers' estimates.

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said last week that Aeromar had been "poorly run" and that unspecified legal action was being taken.

Lopez Obrador also touted the planned purchase of Mexicana, another defunct airline which the government plans to turn into a military-run commercial carrier.

Former Mexicana employees have yet to be liquidated and more than 100 lawsuits remain open from flight attendants' union members alone, the group said.

"We don't want that same error to be repeated (with Aeromar)," said union leader Ada Salazar. "In Mexico, remember that legal processes aren't quick."

Workers also fear that new legislation could create additional headaches for Mexican aviation.

A proposal to overhaul the sector - which unions and airlines overwhelmingly agree is necessary - is with Congress now, but the sector has spoken out against several of its terms.

Congress also passed a law Thursday giving Mexico's armed forces a more prominent role in airspace monitoring.

That has caused alarm, as has a measure to allow "cabotage," or give foreign airlines clearance to operate domestic routes within Mexico.

The chief executive of low-cost carrier Volaris said Thursday industry leaders had told the transportation ministry and lawmakers they "don't consider the opening of cabotage to be needed."

The changes are in a bid to recover Mexico's Category 1 aviation safety rating after being downgraded in May 2021 by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

Lopez Obrador has argued "cabotage," as well as the creation of the military-run Mexicana, would benefit consumers.

($1 = 18.3594 Mexican pesos)

(Reporting by Kylie Madry; editing by Diane Craft)

Credit Suisse Cuts Property Fund Payouts as Withdrawals Mount

Jack Sidders
Fri, February 24, 2023 

(Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse Group AG cut payouts on a 3.25 billion Swiss franc ($3.5 billion) real estate fund, as clients sought to pull their cash after valuations were hit by rising interest rates.

The Credit Suisse Real Estate Fund International’s net asset value is expected to drop as much as 10%, according to a statement Friday. That will likely limit distributions to investors to as low as 35 francs a share, down from 40 francs a share, it said. Investors holding about 13.3% of the fund’s shares have asked for their money back.

Rising interest rates are hitting real estate values globally, as the cheap money era in which real asset values soared comes to an end. While publicly traded landlords saw their share prices rapidly adjust to rising borrowing costs, private market valuations have been slower to update, and some investors in real estate funds have sought to redeem their cash before writedowns feed through.

“Global valuations were negatively impacted by rising interest rates for CS REF International in its key markets of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany,” Credit Suisse said in the statement. “Despite healthy rental results at attractive conditions, these were insufficient to offset the negative effects of rising interest rates.”

The fund’s top holdings include properties in Vancouver, Austin and Boston, according to a fact sheet.

In January, BlackRock Inc. suspended withdrawal requests on a £3.5 billion UK property fund, and Blackstone Inc’s $69 billion real estate trust hit a monthly redemption limit.

British scientists are the latest victims of the Brexit standoff

Jeremy Warner
Wed, February 22, 2023 

rishi sunak

Four economic shocks in a row – first the financial crisis, then Brexit, the pandemic and the energy price surge caused by Putin's war in Ukraine – have left Britain in the most terrible mess.

The national debt is at its highest level since the immediate aftermath of the Second World War, inflation is again above 10pc, the current account deficit is the highest in the G7, economic and productivity growth has ground to a halt, business investment is in the doldrums, and the savings rate is one of the lowest in the OECD.

Meanwhile, the National Health Service is in a state of evident meltdown, and from policing to education, rail and social services, more or less everything seems to be broken beyond repair.


As in the 1970s, when the UK was labelled the "sick man of Europe", we seem once again to be slipping into the sea, with little prospect of salvation. In truth, it is not quite as dire as then, but it is quite bad enough.

It is our patriotic duty to be optimistic for Britain's future, but as things stand it is ever harder to comply. The mood music around the UK's long term prospects has rarely been as downbeat as it is now.

Not everything is gloom and doom, admittedly. One repository of hope is the UK's science base, which remains a world leader in many fields. Yet even here, Britain is in danger of losing the plot. These sectors too are dying of neglect.

In a recent article for the Financial Times, Kate Bingham, who to great effect headed the UK's vaccine task force during the pandemic, warned that short term pressures from the cost of living crisis were crowding out the long term measures needed to support innovation.

In life sciences, the titans of the industry are reining back under pressure from rising levels of business taxation and the penny-pinching ways of the NHS's pricing regime. New investment in factories and research is increasingly concentrated in overseas jurisdictions deemed more business friendly.

At the other end of the spectrum, the decision to cut R&D tax credits is having an equally pernicious effect on many small, innovative, high tech companies.

Just as worrying, British academia finds itself barred from the EU's €95.5bn Horizon research programme, preventing participation in pioneering collaborative European research on the causes of disease and much else besides.

Even hardline Brexiteers tend to accept that Horizon is one of the EU's more worthwhile initiatives, which is why a special carve out for the programme was sought in the Trade and Cooperation Agreement governing Britain's future relationship with the EU. Theoretically, this guarantees continued UK participation.

Horizon has always been one of those areas of the EU budget where the UK gets more out than it puts in, so it was eminently worth preserving. Of the nearly 7,000 principal recipients of European Research Council grants under the Horizon 2020 programme, around a fifth were to UK institutions.

All this is now in jeopardy. Participation in Horizon has become another unfortunate victim of Britain's standoff with Europe over the Irish Protocol. While the politicians busy themselves with highfalutin points of principle on ECJ jurisdiction and the like, Britain's leading role in European research is going down the pan.

Uncertainty over future funding has left key university research roles unfilled, with Britain increasingly seen as no longer an attractive destination for top scientific talent. Visa applications left stuck for months in the blackhole of Home Office bureaucracy have exacerbated the problem.

UK based researchers can still apply for Horizon Europe funding, but successful applicants are unable to access the money until UK participation in the Horizon Europe programme is formalised, and this Brussels is refusing to do until the impasse over the Northern Ireland Protocol is resolved.

Government ministers accuse the EU of "politicising scientific cooperation", and of inappropriately linking participation in Horizon to the Protocol. They are right to do so; the linkage Brussels applies is of questionable legal validity. But there is not a lot they can do about it. In the end, it's the EU's programme.

Downing Street had hoped to settle the matter this week, to coincide with the first anniversary of Putin's murderous invasion of Ukraine. The Russian threat has had a unifying effect on Europe, and thereby helped to defuse some of the bad feeling over Brexit. The prize in settling the Protocol is a more harmonious relationship with Brussels, an easing of trade tensions, and continued participation in Horizon and other mutually beneficial joint programmes.

But politically, the Prime Minister is toast if forced to fall back on Labour support in the face of intransigent opposition from the Democratic Unionist Party and his own hardline Tory MPs to any compromise over Northern Ireland.

There is of course a fall back position for Horizon if agreement cannot be reached and Brussels goes through with its threat to shut Britain out – a so-called "Plan B".

This essentially involves simply reallocating the roughly £17bn British share of funding for Horizon and other joint programmes to UK determined research grants. There would also be further support for alternative collaborative agreements in other parts of the world as part of the Government's wider, Global Britain, ambitions.

Yet the scientific community is widely sceptical that this would provide anywhere near the same degree of benefit. Britain would in any case lose its attractions as a magnet for European talent without necessarily gaining it elsewhere.

As it is, Britain's perilous economic state is already proving a turn-off for many, threatening an outflux of high earners similar to that seen in the 1970s. It's not just uncertainty over future funding; it's also an increasingly uncompetitive tax system.

Ruinous levels of public indebtedness have left the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, caught between a rock and a hard place. The always unsustainable attempt to combine European levels of public spending with American levels of tax is no longer an option for Britain. It must choose one or the other, but it is proving a politically extraordinarily destructive process.

The more pain he inflicts on higher earners, the greater the danger of a brain drain. If alternatively he loads the burden onto business, it further discourages vital corporate investment.

In a perfect world, he'd return to the simplicity of the Lawson contract in the 1980s – a 25pc basic rate of tax and a 40pc higher rate. That way you would square the circle between tax and spend. But what hope in today's equality obsessed world of raising the basic rate while lowering the higher rate?

If settling the Irish Protocol helps ease trade tensions with Europe and ensures continued participation in Horizon, it should provide a degree of help to our beleaguered economy. But righting the ship is going to require so much more.

METROPOLIS 1921 

ILLEGAL ZIONIST OCCUPIERS

Israeli settlers shoot, wound 2 Palestinians in West Bank

Fri, February 24, 2023

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israeli settlers shot and seriously wounded two Palestinians in the northern occupied West Bank early Friday, Palestinian health officials said, in what authorities describe as the latest incident in a wave of settler violence.

The Palestinian Health Ministry said the two wounded Palestinians were being treated at a hospital in the village of Qusra, near the West Bank city of Nablus. It did not identify the men.

A group of armed settlers from a nearby outpost descended on the village and Palestinians went into the street to see what was happening late Thursday, said Ghassan Douglas, the Palestinian official who monitors Israeli settlements in the Nablus region. One of the settlers opened fire at the residents, hitting one man in the s tomach and another in the thigh. Douglas said the shooting was unprovoked.

There was no immediate comment from the Israeli police or the Israeli military.

The northern West Bank in particular has seen a surge of settler attacks. Many villages in the area have gradually become sandwiched between settlements and unauthorized outposts that house particularly ideological settlers.

Last month, leading Israeli human rights group B'Tselem recorded a string of incidents near Nablus — from settlers attacking Palestinians with stones in Qusra to torching Palestinian cars in Aqraba. Earlier this month, a settler shot and killed a Palestinian in the farming town of Salfit.

“This kind of event we are now seeing here every few weeks," said Douglas, describing the settler violence as an attempt to push villagers off their land.

The United Nations recorded over 630 settler attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank last year, up from 496 in 2021. That includes property damage as well as physical assaults.

Israel captured the West Bank, along with east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip, in the 1967 Mideast war. Palestinians seek those lands for a hoped-for independent state. At least 700,000 Israeli settlers now live in dozens of settlements that spread across the West Bank and are protected by the Israeli military.

Russia Sending More Arctic Crude To India And China


Editor OilPrice.com
Wed, February 22, 2023 at 4:00 PM MST·6 min read

On December 5, 2022, the G7, European Union, Canada, Japan and Australia began implementing a $60 price cap on Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports (see EDM, December 5, 2022), which China and India quickly capitalized on. Additional ceilings on petroleum products are expected later this year and are anticipated to have a far greater impact (Economic Times, January 17). In retaliation, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that countries abiding by the price cap and other sanctions will be banned from receiving Russian energy (Economic Times, December 28, 2022).

It is believed that this approach will help stabilize elements of global markets, primarily benefiting low- and middle-income countries, so long as Russia remains incentivized to keep producing (Orfamerica.org, December 14, 2022; Economic Times, December 25, 2022, January 10, 2023; Asiafinancial.com, January 16). The price cap will also minimally affect parties to the policy, as most already limited Russian energy imports last spring. However, as most shipping insurers and other vital elements of the industry are incorporated in the “Price Cap Coalition,” the majority of the world’s cargo companies will be subject to it. Notably, Russia may struggle to export from freeze-prone ports due to a reliance on foreign ice-class tankers—though China is bypassing this via the few ice-tankers Beijing and Moscow own (Ec.europa.eu, December 3, 2022; Alarabiya News, January 13).

Despite these sanctions, Russia claims an increase in oil production by 2 percent to 535 million metric tonnes, with exports growing by 7 percent. Similarly, in 2022, liquefied natural gas (LNG) production increased by 8 percent to 46 billion cubic meters, while gasoline and diesel production rose by 4.3 percent and 6 percent, respectively. Together, the oil and gas industries boosted “Russian budget revenues … in 2022 by 28 percent,” or $36.7 billion (Sputnik, January 16). Via LNG taxes alone, the Kremlin may increase revenue by $3.5 billion in 2023 (High North News, January 2).

Whether these figures are to be believed, it is clear that Moscow mitigated restrictions on its energy industries, partially by granting favorable prices to China and India (Economic Times, December 25, 2022; High North News, January 16). Illustrating this shift, for the first half of 2022, most of Russia’s Arctic oil exports went to Northern Europe; by the second half of the year, only about one-third were destined for the region; and by November, shipments had almost completely pivoted to Asia (High North News, January 16).

According to a survey of experts, a median estimate of China’s oil consumption in 2023 is a record 16 million barrels a day (Xinhua, January 13). Russian energy products are an essential element of this supply, surpassing Saudi Arabia as Beijing’s primary source of oil in 2022 and supplying about 4.5 percent of its gas needs (22.22 percent of imports). China’s current Arctic crude figures are difficult to find, but clearly, Moscow’s discounted prices ensure Beijing can cheaply meet its needs in the short term while encouraging long-term projects (e.g., Power of Siberia Two pipeline and the Northern Sea Route) (English.www.gov.cn, February 24, 2022; Iea.org, accessed October 26, 2022; The Barents Observer, December 8, 2022; Anadolu Agency, December 13, 2022).

These arrangements increase China’s leverage over Moscow, instead of making it dependent. For instance, Beijing is increasingly bypassing Russia’s land trade routes, and 56 percent of Chinese energy needs come from coal (importing less than 10 percent). Furthermore, China can source fuel from other countries as it pursues energy self-sufficiency and increased Arctic influence (see EDM, May 6, 2021, February 1, June 6, August 4, December 30, 2022; English.www.gov.cn, February 24, 2022; Hellenicshippingnews.com, January 16).

For the United States and its partners, India’s case is perhaps more concerning. From April through December 2022, Russia exported about 64,000 barrels per day (b/d) of Arco and Novy Port grade Arctic crude to India (Economic Times, January 5; Argusmedia.com, January 6; Gazprom Neft, January 10, 2017). By October, India’s largest crude source was Russia (22 percent) (Xinhua, November 6, 2022). By November, Russian exports to India were a record 6.67 million barrels of Arco, Novy Port and Varandey crude, with another 4.1 million barrels sent in December, when the latter grade was imported by India for the first time (Economic Times, January 5).

All told, from June through December 2022, Russia’s crude exports to India remained above 1 million b/d, achieving an “all-time high of 1.19 million b/d in December” (Argusmedia.com, January 6). Deliveries of the Varandey blend were set to double in January 2023, which would represent a new record, though official statistics on this were not available at the time of writing.

India’s consumption of Russian fuel is clearly driven by immediate interests, but what about longer-term interests? The country will almost certainly continue its purchases from Russia while expanding Arctic cooperation with Moscow, unless something alters its calculus. Notably, in 2022, New Delhi released its official Arctic and Antarctic policies (Moes.gov.in, May, August 6, 2022). Both are concerned with research, environmental protection and the rule of law, but the Arctic strategy is distinguished by its discussion of raw materials, trade, development and security. Although not explicitly mentioned in the Arctic and Antarctic strategies, Russia is to be a primary partner in achieving these goals, again with a heavy focus on energy and trade (Economic Times, December 17, 2022).

Between China’s desire to be the primary force in the Arctic—at least in Eurasia—and its bellicose rivalry with New Delhi, India’s presence in the Arctic may be yet another point of friction (see China Brief, November 18). However, Moscow, Beijing and New Delhi share similar cultural, political and economic interests that could encourage polar cooperation (Gjia.georgetown.edu, September 16, 2022; for counterarguments, see China Brief, October 19, 2022).

Since US President Joe Biden took office, political considerations have left the US without an ambassador to India, undermining the relationship (The Japan Times, January 11; The Print, January 17). The first step toward ending India’s reliance on Russia and potential enmeshment with China is remedying this vacancy. Additionally, key strategic developing nations should receive assistance to make the most of the energy prices while mitigating Putin’s threats. Finally, countries, including the US, are still importing Russian petroleum products via India and China (Times of India, January 15). It could be that identifying the source here is difficult, or perhaps it is considered acceptable because it keeps Russian prices and profits low. In either case, this merits closer examination.

By the Jamestown Foundation

The World’s Most Painful Trade Is Finally Ending as Dollar Peaks




Ruth Carson
Thu, February 23, 2023

(Bloomberg) -- Some of the world’s top investors are betting the worst of the dollar’s rampage is over after the surge upended the global economy in ways that had few parallels in modern history.

Having skyrocketed to generational highs last year — deepening poverty and turbocharging inflation from Pakistan to Ghana — the currency has now entered what some forecasters are calling the start of a multi-year decline.

Investors say the dollar is on the way down because the bulk of Federal Reserve rate increases is over, and virtually every other currency will strengthen as their central banks keep tightening. While recent data have led traders to rethink how high US rates will go, a shift to risk assets from equities to emerging markets is already underway on bets that the greenback’s strength will ease. Many investors are sticking with these bets, even after the greenback recently recouped its losses for the year, raising the stakes for dollar bears.

“The dollar’s peak is behind us for sure and a structurally weaker dollar lies ahead,” said George Boubouras, a three-decade market veteran and head of research at hedge fund K2 Asset Management. “Yes inflation in the US is stubborn, yes the rates market is signaling higher-for-longer US rates but that doesn’t take away the fact that other economies in the world are catching up with the US.”

The relief that a weaker dollar will bring to the world economy cannot be overstated. Import prices for developing nations will fall, helping to lower global inflation. It’s also likely to boost the price of everything from gold to risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies as sentiment improves.

That may help to ease some of the damage in 2022, when a stronger greenback left a trail of destruction in its wake: Inflation charged higher as the cost of food and oil jumped, nations such as Ghana were driven to the brink of a debt default while stock and bond investors were saddled with outsized losses.

King Dollar Upends the Global Economy With No End in Sight

The US currency’s strength is set to wane with the Fed’s yield premium as other central banks display a similar resolve in slowing price growth. Policy makers in the euro zone and Australia are signaling that more rate hikes are needed to vanquish inflation, while speculation is mounting that the Bank of Japan will abandon its ultra-loose stance this year.

Swaps data show that US borrowing costs are likely to peak in July and a rate cut may come as early as the first Fed review in 2024 as price gains return to the US central bank’s target.

These bets are evident in the greenback’s moves, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index having fallen about 8% since rallying to a record high in September. In tandem, investors bought emerging-market bonds and stocks at the fastest pace in almost two years last month.

Dollar Bears

“We think the dollar has peaked and that a multi-year bearish trend has begun,” said Siddharth Mathur, head of emerging markets research Asia Pacific at BNP Paribas SA in Singapore. “We are structural dollar bears and project weakness in 2023, especially in the second half.”

Some market participants see the Fed opting for modest rate increases on expectations that price pressures will ease. That view is somewhat at odds with the US central bank’s assessment that inflation remains a worry, and further hikes are needed to bring it down to the 2% target.

“There’s still a lot of Fed tightening in the system that hasn’t worked its way through yet,” said Eric Stein, chief investment officer, fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “The Fed says they are going to get inflation to 2%, but in reality I’d say they get more to a level of like 3%. I don’t think they will continue to push rates to 6% just because of that.”

Fed Inclined Toward More Hikes to Curb Inflation, Minutes Show

All this means that the currencies which suffered under the weight of a stronger dollar are likely to strengthen. The yen has already climbed more than 12% against the greenback since dropping to a three-decade low in October and strategists surveyed by Bloomberg see it gaining a further 9% by year-end.

The euro has risen about 11% from the low reached in September while the greenback has lost ground against most of its Group-of-10 peers in the past three months. The Bloomberg JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index has advanced more than 5% since falling to a trough in October.

“Many of the dollar-supportive factors of 2022 have abated,” said Dwyfor Evans, head of APAC macro strategy at State Street Global Markets. “Other central banks in the G-10 space are playing catch-up on rates and if the impact of the China re-opening is to give global demand conditions a lift, then cautious safe haven buying is on the back foot.”

China Reopening Will Boost Global Economy at Crucial Moment

Going Short

Some investors are already testing the theory that the dollar’s dominance is over. abrdn turned neutral on the greenback late last year from a long position, while Jupiter Asset Management is shorting the US currency outright.

K2 Asset Management has dialed back its long dollar exposure since October, and expects commodity currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollars to outperform this year. Similarly, hedge funds’ bearish wagers against the greenback swelled to the most since August 2021 in early January and JPMorgan Asset Management expects the yen and euro to advance further.

“It’s been a case of US exceptionalism for a long time,” said Kerry Craig, strategist at JPMorgan Asset, which oversees over $2.2 trillion. “Now suddenly you have a much better view of the euro zone. The yen will be well supported. You’ve got the bonus now of thinking about China’s reopening.”

Some investors like abrdn’s James Athey are biding their time before making the next bearish move on the US currency. He’s waiting for the “final leg of risk off,” a scenario where a realization of the weak global outlook will spur a fresh bout of dollar demand.

“Once this has happened, the Fed has cut rates and risk assets have found a bottom, we would be looking to get into pro-cyclical dollar shorts,” said the investment director of rates management in London.

Greenback enthusiasts can also look to the so-called dollar smile theory for clues on the outlook. Developed by investor Stephen Jen and his Morgan Stanley colleagues in 2001, it predicts gains for the dollar during times when the U.S. economy is either in a deep slump or growing strongly, and underperformance during times of moderate growth.

Haven Bids

To be clear, no one is betting that the dollar’s decline will be a straight line as US rates continue to rise and the threat of a global recession and geopolitical risks foster demand for havens.

“The dollar has peaked but we do not expect a full reversal of the dollar strength we saw over the past two years,” said Omar Slim, co-head of Asia ex-Japan fixed-income at PineBridge Investments in Singapore. The Fed is likely to keep rates high as inflation lingers at elevated levels, and this will help “mitigate dollar weakness.”

Others go one step further, arguing that elevated US yields are likely to continue attracting investors and help prop up the dollar.

“Our base case is for a recovery in the dollar into year end,” Elsa Lignos, head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note this month. “The dollar remains the highest yielder in the G-10 and higher-yielding than several emerging markets.”

For investors like Deutsche Bank AG’s Stefanie Holtze-Jen, recognizing that the Fed is likely to slow its rate-hike trajectory is key in plotting the dollar’s path for 2023. It’s also equally important to account for the dollar’s status as the world’s dominant reserve asset.

“It has peaked,” said Holtze-Jen, Asia Pacific chief investment officer at the private banking arm of Deutsche in Singapore. But the dollar “will stay supported because of that safe haven notion that it still enjoys.”

--With assistance from Liz McCormick and Garfield Reynolds.

German energy boss warns: Don't let guard down on gas supply

DAVID McHUGH

AP
Thu, February 23, 2023

BONN, Germany (AP) — The temperature outside Klaus Mueller's office almost resembles spring, exactly the kind of mild weather that helped Germany get through the winter without Russian natural gas.

But Germany's chief utility regulator is not ready to sound the all clear on an energy crisis spawned by the war in Ukraine, even with natural gas reserves abundant and prices well down from their peak.

Too much could go wrong — especially if consumers and companies grow weary of the conservation habits they learned during a winter fraught with fear of rolling blackouts and rationing, Mueller, head of the Federal Network Agency, said in an interview Wednesday with The Associated Press.

Plus, there's next winter to think about.

Other risks, such as a pipeline accident or a sudden cold snap, could set back plans to keep natural gas storage as full as possible as Europe learns to live without the cheap Russian gas that fueled its economy for decades.

Mueller would only concede that he's “optimistic” this winter will end without a further gas crunch, especially after Germany cut gas use by 14% in 2022 through lowering thermostats, switching to other fuels or halting energy-intensive industrial production. Gas use fell 19% in the last six months across the whole 27-nation European Union.

“But at the same time, we're focused already on winter 2023-24, and we know that Germany, and large parts of Europe, will have to get through the next winter without Russian pipeline gas," he said. And “the risks are in plain sight.”

While he's thankful for warmer-than-usual winter weather that cut gas use for heating, “will next winter be so mild? No one can say," Mueller said.

“Second, we have to see if the industrial firms and private households are tired of the efforts related to conservation — or will they redouble their efforts based on experience thus far? We're pushing for the second to be the case,” he said.

Mueller says he hopes the public responds to an approach based on transparency — not exaggerating risk but not sugarcoating it either. Yet the experience with measures such as masking and social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic show “that always being told what to do is not especially popular.”

Key for the months and years ahead is a push to use heat pumps instead of gas heating, still the case in roughly half of German homes. Above all, higher prices will force homeowners and businesses to adapt simply to lower their costs.

Gas prices have fallen to under 50 euros ($53) per megawatt hour — the lowest level in nearly a year and a half — from a record 350 euros per megawatt hour in August, according to FactSet. But they are still well above the 18 euros per megawatt hour in March 2021, just before Russia started massing troops on Ukraine's border.

Mueller said it will take six months to a year for lower prices to filter through to less expensive utility bills for consumers. Asked whether prices two or three times their pre-crisis level are the “new normal," Mueller avoided the phrase, saying there are too many uncertainties that could affect gas prices going forward.

Mueller, formerly head of the Federation of German Consumer Organisations and environment minister from the Greens party in northern Germany's Schleswig-Holstein region, took over the network agency in March 2022, just days after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Natural gas prices had already risen on fears of lost supply, although Western sanctions against Moscow initially spared oil and natural gas. There were concerns about Europe's dependency on Russian gas used to heat homes, generate electricity and fire up industrial processes like making glass and fertilizer.

What followed was a scramble to find alternative pipeline supplies from friendly countries like Norway and to line up floating terminals that can import liquefied natural gas that comes by ship from suppliers including the U.S. and Qatar.

Russia had already limited supplies in the run-up to the invasion, leaving storage low. Then it started cutting back supplies, first to countries that wouldn't meet a demand to pay in Russian currency. On Aug. 31, it cut off the major Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany, citing technical problems.

There's still a bit of Russian gas — about 7% of supply — flowing to Europe through Ukraine to Slovakia and via Turkey to Bulgaria.

The race to find new supplies was expensive — 10 billion euros went toward the floating terminals, and consumers are seeing painfully higher bills and inflation. But gas storage was full by December. Drawn down over the winter, storage facilities will have to be filled again over the summer.

One of Mueller’s first responsibilities as regulator was overseeing the establishment of a 24-hour crisis center next to his agency's skyscraper headquarters in Bonn, Germany’s capital until the 1999-2000 move to Berlin.

That’s where the agency would have decided which companies would get priority access to energy if supplies failed and the government declared a gas emergency. The center, equipped with diesel generators and stocks of food so it could operate even in a blackout, never had to be used.

Asked when he realized Germany had made it through the winter, Mueller said he was reassured by the full storage levels around Christmas. But complete relief is yet to come.

“When it's really spring here will be the moment when we will have made it," he said. “We're still a couple of weeks away, and I'd rather stay cautious.”

Colombia’s Risky Plan To Import Gas From Venezuela

Editor OilPrice.com
Thu, February 23, 2023 

Leftist Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s controversial plan to end hydrocarbon exploration sparked fears it will roil the oil dependent economy and endanger the strife-torn country’s energy security. While there was speculation that Petro would soften his approach, the president’s commitment to ceasing issuing new exploration contracts was reiterated by energy minister, Irene Vélez, at the Davos World Economic Forum. This further compounded existing fears of an energy crisis occurring because of Colombia’s dependence on natural gas. To assuage mounting disquiet and curtail the risks the policy poses, Petro secured an agreement with neighboring oil-rich Venezuela, where diplomatic relations were only recently reestablished, to supply natural gas. While Venezuela has natural gas reserves of nearly 200 trillion cubic feet the plan is fraught with considerable risk which could prevent its successful execution.

A looming natural gas crisis has existed in Colombia for nearly a decade. Ailing supply due to declining production at mature aging gas fields coupled with scant proven reserves because of a lack of exploration and rising consumption saw a supply shortfall emerge during 2016. Since then, the supply gap has widened not only forcing Colombia to import greater volumes of liquified natural gas but to enact policies aimed at incentivizing natural gas exploration and production. The situation was so dire that compared to 2021, when Colombia was importing around 5,000 metric tons per month, the Andean country was planning to quadruple 2022 imports to nearly 21,000 metric tons. This is because LPG is a popular industrial and household fuel which is experiencing strong demand growth.

The threat posed by diminishing production will be compounded by Petro’s plan to end issuing hydrocarbon exploration contracts. This will weigh heavily on already meagre proven natural gas reserves of 3.1 trillion cubic feet which are only sufficient for another eight years of production. A large proportion of those reserves are from associated gas reservoirs where the extracted fuel is a byproduct of petroleum production. A considerable portion of that natural gas is consumed by oil companies for a variety of purposes including for gas injected enhanced recovery, as a fuel for the gas-fired electric plants which power operations and as a diluent mixed with heavy oil so that it flows. If Petro proceeds with his plan analysts believe Colombia will no longer be energy self-sufficient by as early as 2024 forcing the fiscally fragile country to ramp-up natural gas imports.

Related: Drilling Giant Chesapeake Cuts Rigs Amid Plunge In U.S Gas Prices

While an agreement with Venezuela, in theory, can address many of the risks faced by Colombia due to dwindling natural gas reserves, declining production from mature fields and rising consumption it also comes with significant risk. After Velez reiterated at Davos (Spanish) that Colombia will cease issuing new contracts for hydrocarbon exploration Finance Minister José Antonio Ocampo confirmed the Andean country (Spanish) will import natural gas from Venezuela, 25 million cubic feet of natural gas per day from Venezuela’s national oil company PDVSA. That volume is miniscule in comparison to Colombia’s current output of around 1,100 million cubic feet per day.

A privately controlled Venezuelan owned company Prodata, which was granted a 30-year export license by the Maduro regime, will ship the natural gas to Colombia. The plan is to utilize the PDVSA owned 500 million cubic feet per day capacity Antonio Ricaurte Trans-Caribbean gas pipeline to transport the gas. The 139-mile-long pipeline connects the municipality of Bajo Grande in Venezuela’s western state of Zulia, the historic heart of the OPEC member’s petroleum industry, to Riohacha the capital of Colombia’s northeastern department of Guajira. Incidentally, it is Guajira where Colombia’s largest non-associated gas fields, the offshore Chuchupa and onshore Ballena fields, are located.

The Antonio Ricaurte pipeline was inaugurated in 2009 and initially used to export Colombian gas from the Chevron operated Ballena field to Zulia. There was a plan to reverse the pipeline’s flow by 2011 and for Colombia to import gas to Venezuela, which never occurred., primarily because of PDVSA’s parlous finances, corroding infrastructure and U.S. sanctions, all of which have worsened since then. By 2015, the Antonio Ricaurte pipeline had fallen into disuse because of deteriorating relations between the two countries, the Obama White House’s declaration Venezuela is a threat to national security and PDVSA’s deteriorating finances. In early June 2015 the national oil company announced it would not renew the natural gas importation contract.

Natural gas in Venezuela, like Colombia, is an indispensable fuel for Venezuelan industry and households. The reliance upon the gas has grown exponentially since the OPEC member’s economy collapsed with it becoming a crucial source of household energy. OPEC data shows Venezuela produced 2.3 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day during 2021 which while 32% greater than 2020, when the pandemic disrupted operations, was less than the 2.4 billion cubic feet per day pumped during 2018. By 2022 supply constraints were so acute PDVSA’s LPG production of 20,000 barrels per day was less than half of the 55,000 barrels per day required to meet domestic demand. That massive shortfall, which emerged after the Trump White House ratcheted-up sanctions during January 2019, is aggravating the country’s economic and humanitarian crises. It is for this reason that the Biden administration granted a waiver permitting LPG exports and re-exports to Venezuela, which is valid until July 2023.

PDVSA’s badly corroded energy infrastructure is blocking efforts to bolster hydrocarbon production. This will not improve until U.S. sanctions are eased to where foreign energy majors can invest profitably in Venezuela. Energy companies are fleeing the OPEC member with eight having exited during the last five years, among them supermajors TotalEnergies and Equinor which quit their joint venture with PDVSA during 2021. The Biden administration authorized Chevron, which is now the only western driller with a significant presence in Venezuela, to recommence lifting petroleum and export it to the U.S. but the company is prevented from expanding operations in the pariah state. This sees Chevron limiting its activities to rehabilitating exist wells and infrastructure.

Those developments don’t bode well for PDVSA being able to obtain the substantial investment required to rebuild shattered energy infrastructure which is imperative to expanding Venezuela’s hydrocarbon production. Even when U.S.sanctions are significantly relaxed it will take at least a decade and a massive amount of capital, estimated to be greater than $110 billion, to restore hydrocarbon sector operations to pre-Chavez levels. This creates serious doubts as to whether PDVSA can expand natural gas production which is a crucial requirement for successfully supplying the fossil fuel to Colombia.

Washington’s strict sanctions will potentially prevent Colombia, a key regional U.S. ally, from successfully importing natural gas from Venezuela. Those measures essentially block U.S. companies and persons from conducting transactions and working with the Maduro regime as well as national oil company PDVSA. It is the potential impact of Washington’s sanctions, which can cripple a business’s access to financial markets and operations, that is a pivotal deterrent for foreign companies considering operating in Venezuela or conducting transactions with the Maduro regime. The U.S. has sanctioned foreign entities for facilitating the sale of crude oil PDVSA’s crude oil. For these reasons, along with rising concerns over diminished energy security, that Trinidad and Tobago sought a license from the U.S. Treasury, which was granted in January 2023, to develop a Venezuelan gas field. It is difficult to see how the Petro administration can receive and pay for Venezuelan gas imports without falling afoul of U.S. sanctions.

Then there are the issues relating to the appalling state of the PDVSA owned Antonio Ricaurte pipeline. Since falling into disuse in 2015 the pipeline’s condition has deteriorated so badly that it is currently inoperable. Economist Mauricio Cárdenas who was Finance Minister for President Juan Manuel Santos, who secured the peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC – Spanish initials), warned that the deal is riddled with obstacles. He was quoted in Venezuelan industry journal Petroguia as stating:

"The problem now is that the pipeline has deteriorated because it has not been used for many years, equipment, valves and segments of the pipeline have been stolen and that is why the first thing to do is recover the pipeline, but that costs hundreds of millions of dollars,"

U.S. sanctions prevent Venezuela’s national oil company and Caracas from accessing international capital markets while discouraging foreign energy companies from doing business in Venezuela. For those reasons PDVSA will struggle to obtain the required skilled labor, parts and funding to bring the Antonio Ricaurte pipeline back online which is the primary prerequisite for shipping natural gas to Colombia.

Aside from these fundamental barriers to importing Venezuelan natural gas into Colombia, there are further concerns relating to the cost. Ecopetrol President Felipe Bayon asserted the cost of (Spanish) Venezuelan gas for consumers could be five times higher than domestically sourced natural gas. When that is considered in conjunction with the political unreliability of the Maduro regime and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela it is difficult to see any agreement to import Venezuelan natural gas being successfully executed. This means the agreement appears to be a political ploy aimed at cementing newly re-established diplomatic relations with Caracas rather than a genuine attempt to guarantee Colombia’s energy security and ward off a crisis.

By Matthew Smith for Oilprice.com

 NATO WAR

Ukrainian soldiers training on German tanks say they’ve ‘swapped Ladas for Mercedes’

Jorg Luyken

The Telegraph
Wed, February 22, 2023 

Bundeswehr 

Ukrainian soldiers on training in Germany say that they have “swapped Ladas for Mercedes” as they express their delight at finally getting the chance to use German-built tanks.

On an army base on a rain-swept moor in northern Germany, Ukrainian soldiers have been given five weeks to master the complexities of the Leopard 2 battle tank before they head back to the front in their war-torn country.

With many of the soldiers barely versed in tank battle, the training is intense.

The work day starts at 7am and lasts for 12 hours. Sunday is the only rest day, but even here the Ukrainians are eager to get on to the training field, one German soldier said.


The Telegraph was one of a few media outlets granted access to the training facilities in the town of Munster earlier this week to meet some of the soldiers and the German squaddies training them.

The visit took place under tight security conditions, with the press banned from taking any pictures around the facility.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian soldiers who agreed to be interviewed pulled scarves up over their noses and wore tinted glasses.

Any questions about the specifics of the training programme, such as how many soldiers were involved and when it would finish, were rebuffed by German officials with a curt “no comment”.

Anatoli, a stockily built tank commander in his late fifties, said that his experience with Germany’s Leopard tanks had been a revelation.

“Up until now we have been fighting with Ladas, now we’re finally getting a modern Mercedes,” he said.

Vitali, a paratrooper who is being trained on the lighter Marder tank, said confidently that: “I don’t want to compare (it to a Soviet tank). You will soon see. We’ll show everything in battle.”

The men are two of several hundred soldiers taken to Germany under tight secrecy earlier this month for training on the weapons systems.

After months of delay, Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, agreed in January to supply Kyiv with 40 Marder tanks and 14 Leopard 2 battle tanks, as well as carry out the necessary training of soldiers at German bases.

Vitali would say only that he was previously a state official before joining the army after the outbreak of the war last year.

The German tanks are “a drop in the ocean... but they will bring our victory nearer,” he said.

German soldiers charged with bringing their Ukrainian colleagues up to speed on the vehicles in record time say they have been impressed by how quickly they’ve taken on new skills.

“They are hungry for knowledge. You can see that they really want to absorb everything like dry sponges,” one trainer said.

Vladimir Klitschko -

But the challenges involved in making sure they are battle ready by the end of March are immense.

Around 80 per cent of the recruits in Germany for training only have the most basic of combat experience, one German trainer said.

With the pressure on, they were “working round the clock”, he conceded.

The lack of a common language means that “a lot of the time we are using our hands and feet to communicate”, another instructor said.

On the same day that the press were granted access, Boris Pistorius, the German defence minister, also paid an official visit to the training facilities.

Along with him was a surprise guest - Ukraine’s former champion boxer Vladimir Klitschko.

Mr Klitschko told The Telegraph on the sidelines of the event that he believed that Germany had finally understood the importance of arming his country.

“I understand that it is part of the German mentality that weapons are something they don’t really want to talk about,” he said. “But eventually, Germany has understood that the war is going to escalate if it is not stopped with weapons.

“We are not fighting with fists, we are fighting with weapons,” added the former world heavyweight title holder.

Germany has promised to deliver the tanks by the end of March.

The Marder infantry fighting vehicles are part of a wider Western deployment that will include at least 60 Bradley Fighting Vehicles from the US. These arrived at Bremen harbour in northern Germany earlier this month and are also now headed for the warzone.

Ukrainian military personnel stand infront of a Marder infantry fighting vehicles at the Panzertruppenschule (Tank School) in Munster 

Berlin is still engaged in furious diplomacy to build an alliance of countries that will contribute to two battalions of Leopard tanks.

Loud concerns have been raised that Mr Scholz’s slow decision on supplying battle tanks might mean that they arrive too late to fend off a Russian offensive expected in the coming weeks.

But the Ukrainian soldiers training in Munster expressed confidence that their comrades back home would hold the line.

“We are sure that our comrades can hold back the attacker until we arrive,” said Vitali.

He couldn't say whether he will have time to see his family once the training in Germany is over, but added, “we will be back on the front soon”.

PHOTOS  Craig Stennett for The Telegraph