Amazon deforestation hits record low in Brazil, but El Niño and a tight election threaten progress
Deforestation in the Amazon rainforest has fallen to its lowest level since records began in 1988, Brazil's government has announced.
Annual loss between August 2025 to July 2026 stood at 3,335 square kilometres, according to official satellite data – down 41.8 per cent from 5,731 square kilometres a year earlier.
It's testament to the success of Brazil’s renewed efforts under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to curb Amazon deforestation, reversing a surge under his predecessor, far-right President Jair Bolsonaro.
During Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency, from 2019 to 2022, Amazon deforestation surged by around 60 per cent, with more than 45,000 square kilometres cleared, according to official data. Under Lula, deforestation has fallen 71 per cent since 2023, the government said.
One of Lula’s first moves after taking office in January 2023 for a third, non-consecutive term was to revive the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon, known by its Portuguese acronym, PPCDAm. Launched in 2004 during his first administration, the plan had been shelved under Bolsonaro.
Lula brought back the environmental officials who developed the blueprint two decades earlier, appointing environmental champion Marina Silva – who led the Environment Ministry until she resigned in April to run for Congress – and João Paulo Capobianco, her former deputy and the current minister, to help carry it out.
How Brazil's government curbed deforestation
The plan has four pillars: strengthening monitoring and enforcement; promoting a sustainable economy; managing protected areas and determining how undesignated public forests should be used; and using regulations and financial incentives to curb deforestation.
Measures included restoring sanctions for illegal forest clearing detected by satellites, a practice seen as the most effective tool to curb deforestation that was halted under Bolsonaro. The government also proposed barring properties with illegal deforestation from receiving bank loans and allocated more funding to priority Amazon municipalities that demonstrated reductions in forest loss. It also funded efforts to fight environmental crime and develop subsidised credit for sustainable businesses in the Amazon.
“The formula is always the same, and it works. We saw it work in Brazil years ago and we’re seeing it again now: determination, enforcement on the ground, fighting crime and enforcing the law," says Márcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory, a Brazilian network of environmental groups.
Astrini adds that the deforestation rates announced on 16 October show that Brazil's pledge to reach zero deforestation by 2030 is achievable without compromising the country's economy.
"Agriculture has been setting production and export records while deforestation has fallen. Today’s figures disprove the false narrative that protecting the environment holds back Brazil’s development,” he adds.
Deforestation and other land-use changes are Brazil’s largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions, which drive global warming. The stakes are especially high in the Amazon, which stores vast amounts of carbon dioxide and generates atmospheric moisture that helps regulate weather far beyond South America.
New president could determine future of the Amazon
Despite progress curbing deforestation, the Amazon faces threats from climate change, proposed legislation and a possible change in Brazil’s presidency.
Degradation from wildfires, logging and drought affects about 40 per cent of the Amazon and has outpaced clear-cutting in recent years. A strong El Niño, a periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific, could intensify those threats in 2026 and 2027 by bringing hotter, drier conditions that fuel wildfires.
Fire counts across the biome were near historic lows this year but have tripled since 4 October, when Brazilians voted in the first round of national elections. Authorities are investigating whether fires were deliberately set for political reasons ahead of this month’s presidential runoff.
NASA scientists caution that official satellite counts may understate the damage: around Santarém, a preliminary analysis found about 40 per cent more fires than standard active-fire data shows. Agency satellite observations revealed a sharp increase in fires and smoke emissions across the central and eastern Amazon beginning in September 2026, fuelled by severe drought linked to El Niño.
Environment Minister Capobianco said officials flying over protected areas saw fires arranged in a geometric pattern, suggesting they were set deliberately, though it is unclear who is responsible. Smoke has closed schools in Manaus, the largest city in the Brazilian Amazon, and residents were urged to wear face masks.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, won 47 per cent of the vote, while Lula received 45 per cent. The two face a 25 October runoff.
The candidates offer sharply different visions for the rainforest. Climate and conservation experts warn that a Bolsonaro victory could reverse policies to curb deforestation. He has pledged to end illegal deforestation by 2029, a year ahead of Brazil’s current target. Lula’s reelection pledge goes further: zero net deforestation by 2030, with restoration offsetting all forest loss, legal or illegal.
'Historic achievement' following 'sweeping dismantling of environmental policies'
Cristiane Mazzetti of Greenpeace Brazil says the record low deforestation rate reflects effective policies that could be at risk depending on who wins the presidential election.
“Congress has worked to weaken, delay and dismantle laws and regulations that help protect the environment,” she says. “The next legislature will be even more hostile to environmental protection, and depending on the next federal administration, the risk of rollbacks and high deforestation rates will rise sharply.”
Former Minister Silva said in a statement on Friday (16 October) that the deforestation reduction was a “historic achievement” for the Brazilian people and that the election outcome would be crucial to sustain it.
“Jair Bolsonaro’s administration approached environmental protection and climate change with denial and a sweeping dismantling of environmental policies. Flávio has inherited those views and practices and intends to perpetuate them, as he has indicated on several occasions,” she says.
“Those who deny the problem exists will certainly do nothing to address it.”
Bolsonaro has denied climate change while portraying himself as an environmental defender, without detailing plans to protect the Amazon or support forest financing. He has called for modernising environmental laws, which many environmentalists interpret as weakening them.
“Flávio Bolsonaro is a defender of the environment and of those who preserve standing forests and clean rivers,” his campaign said.
