Coronavirus forces new approaches to fighting wildfires

FILE - In this Nov. 10, 2018, file photo, a firefighter sprays water on a controlled burn while fighting a wildfire in Magalia, Calif. The outbreak of the coronavirus is making the U.S. Forest Service and others change strategies for fighting wildfires, as the need for isolation and social distancing comes into play against the necessity of having firefighters work and live closely together. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)
BOISE, Idaho (AP) — They are two disasters that require opposite responses: To save lives and reduce the spread of COVID-19, people are being told to remain isolated. But in a wildfire, thousands of firefighters must work in close quarters for weeks at a time.

Wildfires have already broken out in Texas and Florida, and agencies are scrambling to finish plans for a new approach. They are considering waivers for some training requirements to previously-certified crew members, and moving some training online.

Other proposals include limiting fire engines to a driver and one passenger, requiring other crew members to ride in additional vehicles. They may scrap the normal campsite catering tents in favor of military-issue MREs, or “Meals Ready to Eat” to reduce touching serving utensils.
FILE - In this Nov. 26, 2019, file photo, firefighters battle the Cave Fire as it flares up along Highway 154 in the Los Padres National Forest above Santa Barbara, Calif. The outbreak of the coronavirus is making the U.S. Forest Service and others change strategies for fighting wildfires, as the need for isolation and social distancing comes into play against the necessity of having firefighters work and live closely together. (AP Photo/Noah Berger, File)

Federal resources for firefighting efforts may be more scarce, leaving states to deal with more fires.

In light of the “unprecedented challenge” of the pandemic, Forest Service resources will be used “only when there is a reasonable expectation of success in protecting life and critical property and infrastructure,” says Forest Service Chief Victoria Christiansen.

Wildland fire camps have always had a reputation for spreading illness. Norovirus outbreaks have occurred and outbreaks of illnesses collectively dubbed the “camp crud” are yearly occurrences for many.

The job is so demanding that it’s typically done by younger, healthy and physically fit people. But the nature of the job also works against them: firefighters regularly experiencing high stress, inhaling smoke and dust and dealing with poor sleeping and personal hygiene.

A suck-it-up and tough-it-out culture doesn’t help either, said Jessica Gardetto, spokeswoman for the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho. The center coordinates logistics for 14,000 federal firefighters and thousands more state, local and private crews.“

“We have really been trying to educate and change that culture because not just in this situation but in others, it’s not OK to just tough it out if something’s wrong,” she said.

You don’t have to look too far back in history to see how the one-two punch of a pandemic and wildfire can decimate communities. The 1918 influenza pandemic killed an estimated 50 to 100 million people worldwide. In October 1918, sparks from a passing train ignited fields near Cloquet and Moose Lake, Minnesota.

Four hundred and fifty people were killed in an area that spanned 1,500 square miles (about 3,885 square kilometers). There were 21,000 injuries and 52,000 displaced people, said Curt Brown, a journalist and the author of “Minnesota, 1918.” The aftermath made it easy to spread disease.


“It was the perfect situation to spread the flu -- if you were lucky enough to survive the wildfire, you were crammed into evacuee housing,” he said. At least 100 people died of the flu in evacuee housing, an estimate Brown called conservative.

FILE - In this Aug. 21, 2015, file photo, firefighters from several King County agencies gather for a briefing while fighting a wildfire near Twisp, Wash. The outbreak of the coronavirus is making the U.S. Forest Service and others change strategies for fighting wildfires, as the need for isolation and social distancing comes into play against the necessity of having firefighters work and live closely together. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren, File)

There also are concerns about preparations not being done. Typically, agencies spend months and millions of dollars preparing for wildfire season — clearing brush and doing prescribed burns to reduce the plants that feed massive wildfires.

That’s not happening in many places because some fire managers are trying to allow employees to abide by social distancing guidelines as long as possible and to curb smoke from the prescribed burns during the pandemic. Smoke can make breathing more difficult for people with asthma and other lung conditions.

“The biggest issue I see right now is that the prescribed burns aren’t getting done,” says Casey Judd, the president of the Federal Wildland Fire Services Association, which advocates on behalf of federal firefighters in 42 states. “That’s going to increase the fire load.”

He said leaders should have started working on a coronavirus plan for firefighters months ago. “I’m not suggesting they’re dragging their feet, but obviously they’re trying to figure it out just like everyone is,” he said.


FILE - In this Aug. 25, 2015, file photo, firefighters rest at a camp near the Okanogan Complex Fire in Okanogan, Wash. The outbreak of the coronavirus is making the U.S. Forest Service and others change strategies for fighting wildfires, as the need for isolation and social distancing comes into play against the necessity of having firefighters work and live closely together. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren, File)


Kerry Greene, an emergency management specialist and spokeswoman with the U.S. Forest Service, said that although the plans haven’t been released yet, they’re coming together. The agency is already working to follow directives from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as well as infectious disease guidelines created in 2008 after a bird flu epidemic.

Like many, fire managers are to some extent flying blind. “Some of the things we’re probably going to have to learn as we go,” Greene said.

For most people, the virus causes mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough that clear up in two to three weeks. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia and death.

Wildland firefighters are first responders just like hospital staff and police, and should be protected accordingly, said , said Boise State University assistant professor Luke Montrose, an expert in community and environmental health. “Like potentially having them wear masks when traveling from place to place.”

Under the $2 trillion federal CARES Act, federal fire crews will have paid sick leave for the first time, she said, which officials hope will encourage crew members to take sick leave when they need it. It’s not clear if all state or contract firefighters will have the same benefit.

Scott McLean, a spokesman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, said the agency is following strict physical distancing protocols, and that could mean making larger campsites near wildfires and pulling in additional trailers for showers and other hygiene needs. But there is no agency-wide guidance beyond the recommendations every American has been given for the pandemic, he said.

“It has to be handled on a case-by-case basis because every incident is different. We rely on each individual to be responsible, and we have safety officers on the teams,” McLean said. “We will meet those needs as they come.”

IMF head sees worst economic downturn since Great Depression

TRUMP REPLACES HOOVER AS AMERICA'S GREATEST DEPRESSION PRESIDENT

FILE - In this Feb. 14, 2020 file photo, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, attends a session on the first day of the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany. Georgieva said Friday, March 27, it is clear that the global economy has now entered a recession that could be as bad or worse than the 2009 downturn. She said the 189-nation lending agency was forecasting a recovery in 2021, saying it could be a “sizable rebound.” But she said this would only occur if nations succeed in containing the coronavirus and limiting the economic damage(AP Photo/Jens Meyer, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — The coronavirus pandemic will push the global economy into the deepest recession since the Great Depression, with the world’s poorest countries suffering the most, the head of the International Monetary Fund said Thursday.

“We anticipate the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Thursday in remarks previewing next week’s virtual meetings of the 189-nation IMF and its sister lending organization, the World Bank.

She said that the IMF will release an updated world economic forecast on Tuesday that will show just how quickly the coronavirus outbreak has turned what had been expected to be a solid year of growth into a deep downturn.



Just three months ago, the IMF was forecasting that 160 nations would enjoy positive income growth on a per capita basis. Now the expectation is that over 170 nations will have negative per capita income growth this yea.


Emerging markets and low-income nations across Africa, Latin America and much of Asia are at high risk, she said.

“With weak health systems to begin with, many face the dreadful challenge of fighting the virus in densely populated cities and poverty-stricken slums, where social distancing is hardly an option,” Georgieva said.

Investors have grown fearful of leaving their money in emerging economies that could be hit hard by a global recession. As a result, capital outflows from emerging-market countries have totaled more than $100 billion over the last two months, more than three times larger than the same period at the start of the global financial crisis, Georgieva noted.

In addition, countries that depend on exporting commodities have taken a double blow because of the steep fall in commodity prices.


Georgieva said there was no question that 2020 will be an “exceptionally difficult” year. She said if the pandemic fades in the second half of the year, allowing the gradual lifting of containment measures and the reopening of the global economy, the IMF is forecasting a partial recovery in 2021.

“I stress there is tremendous uncertainty around the outlook,” she said. “It could get worse depending on many variable factors, including the duration of the pandemic.”

She said that she and World Bank President David Malpass will pursue at next week’s virtual meetings an agreement to adopt a standstill on debt payments over the next year by the world’s poorest nations, freeing up money they can use for critical health needs.

She also said that the IMF is prepared to commit its $1 trillion in lending capacity to providing support to nations that need help dealing with the pandemic.

“We are responding to an unprecedented number of calls for emergency financing from over 90 countries so far,” she said.

The IMF’s executive board has agreed to double the loan levels it will provide from its emergency facilities that she said should allow the IMF to provide around $100 billion in financing to low-income countries.

RIP
Mad magazine illustrator Mort Drucker dies at 91

THE BACKBONE OF THE MAGAZINE

NEW YORK (AP) — Mort Drucker, the Mad Magazine cartoonist who for decades lovingly spoofed politicians, celebrities and popular culture, died Thursday at 91.

Drucker’s daughter, Laurie Bachner, told The Associated Press that he fell ill last week, having difficulty walking and developing breathing problems. She did not give a specific cause of death and said that he was not tested for the coronavirus. He died at his home in Woodbury, New York, with his wife of more than 70 years, Barbara, by his side.

“I think my father had the best life anyone could hope for,” Bachner said. “He was married to the only woman he ever loved and got to make a living out of what he loved to do.”



Mad magazine was a cultural institution for millions of baby boomers, and Drucker was an institution at Mad. A New York City native, he joined Mad in its early days, the mid-1950s, and remained well into the 21st century. Few major events or public figures during that time escaped Drucker’s satire, whether “Star Trek” and “The Godfather” or Steve Martin and Jerry Seinfeld. In large strokes, Drucker took in every crease, crevice and bold feature. The big jaws of Kirk Douglas and Jay Leno bulged even larger, while the ears of Barack Obama looked like wings about to take flight. Being drawn by Drucker became a kind of show business rite of passage, with Michael J. Fox once telling Johnny Carson that he knew he had made it when he appeared in a Drucker cartoon.

Drucker’s admirers also included “Peanuts” creator Charles M. Schulz and “Star Wars” filmmaker George Lucas, who in the 1970s wrote a fan letter to Mad even as his lawyers were threatening to sue over a magazine caricature. (The suit was never filed.)

Besides Mad, Drucker drew for Time magazine, DC Comics, for an ad campaign for fruit and vegetables and for the heavy metal band Anthrax, which commissioned him to design art for its “State of Euphoria” album.

Some of Drucker’s illustrations, include a Time cover drawing of Richard Nixon and Mao Zedong playing table tennis, ended up in the National Portrait Gallery in Washington, D.C. In 2017, Drucker was inducted into the Society of Illustrators Hall of Fame.


“As Mad Magazine became an established (albeit absurd) voice in the nation’s cultural mainstream, many of the visual masters who showcased the magazine’s written content eventually became icons in and of themselves,” the Hall’s citation reads. “Indeed, Mort Drucker proved to be one of the most popular artists of the group that collectively came to be known as the ‘Usual Gang of Idiots.’”

Liberty University pressing charges against journalists

LIKE THEIR CLAIM TO BE THE MORAL MAJORITY (R) (TM)

THEIR CLAIM TO LIBERTY IS JUST AS HYPOCRITICAL

FILE - In this March 24 , 2020, file photo, a sign marks the entrance to Liberty University in Lynchburg, Va. The university, led by Jerry Falwell Jr., is pushing for criminal trespassing charges to be lodged against two journalists who pursued stories about why the evangelical college has remained partially open during the coronavirus outbreak. (AP Photo/Steve Helber, File)

NEW YORK (AP) — Liberty University has pushed for criminal trespassing charges against two journalists who pursued stories about why the evangelical college in Virginia has remained partially open during the coronavirus outbreak.

The college, in Lynchburg, Virginia, is led by Jerry Falwell Jr., a supporter of President Donald Trump who has suggested coverage of the epidemic was overblown. Falwell said the university is conducting classes online and obeying social distancing directives.

But he said he has kept the campus open for international students and those with nowhere else to go. On Thursday, there were about 1,000 students living on campus, roughly one-eighth of its normal residential population.

After stories were written saying Liberty’s decision caused concerns in the community, the university pursued charges against Alec MacGillis, a reporter for ProPublica, and Julia Rendleman, a photographer who illustrated a March 29 story in The New York Times.

Virginia Magistrate Kang Lee signed arrest warrants for Class 1 Misdemeanors against the two journalists, punishable by up to a year in jail. It’s up to Lynchburg Commonwealth’s Attorney Bethany Harrison to decide whether to prosecute, and she said Thursday she hasn’t seen any details on the case.

Liberty’s security forces investigated the journalists following publication of their articles, collecting witness accounts that they were on campus without permission, Falwell said.

He said it was a safety issue not to let outsiders in at a time of a global pandemic.

“When people are coming from known hot spots, we feel we owe it to our students and our parents not to let that happen,” Falwell said in an interview on Thursday. “The only way to send the message is to let them know they will be prosecuted.”

What’s really important is writing about a decision that goes against safety guidelines and puts people’s health at risk, said Richard Tofel, president of ProPublica. MacGillis’ article, headlined “What’s it Like on One of the Only University Campuses Still Open in the U.S.?” was published on March 26.

“Bringing an action on trespassing charges seems something beside the point,” Tofel said.

The only reason that trespassing accusations weren’t made against Elizabeth Williamson, the Times reporter who wrote about Liberty on March 29, was because eyewitnesses could not be found, Falwell said. The Times story was headlined, “Liberty University Brings Back its Students, and Coronavirus Fears, Too.”

The Times said its freelance photographer was doing the routine job of taking a picture of someone interviewed for the news story.

“We are disappointed that Liberty University would decide to make that into a criminal case and go after a freelance journalist because its officials were unhappy with press coverage of the university’s decision to convene classes in the midst of the pandemic,” spokeswoman Eileen Murphy said.

In the midst of reporting its own story about Liberty’s decision on March 24, an Associated Press photographer was approached by a campus security officer, asked to leave and to delete all of the images he had taken at Liberty.

After consulting with a supervisor, the photographer deleted the images — a decision the news organization said was wrong in retrospect.

“We don’t delete photos or any other material at the request of an individual law enforcement officer,” said Sally Buzbee, the AP’s executive editor and senior vice president. “We try to fight such orders legally.”

FILE - In this Nov. 28, 2018, file photo, Jerry Falwell Jr. speaks before a convocation at Liberty University in Lynchburg, Va. The university, led by Falwell, is pushing for criminal trespassing charges to be lodged against two journalists who pursued stories about why the evangelical college has remained partially open during the coronavirus outbreak. (AP Photo/Steve Helber, File)

Liberty is particularly upset at the Times, disputing the newspaper’s contention that nearly a dozen Liberty students were sick with symptoms that suggested COVID-19. The university said only one student has tested positive — someone who did not live on campus and was last on campus two weeks before being tested.

Liberty has called for a retraction and threatened legal action.

Murphy said the Times’ story described contradictory statements by university leadership and personal attacks against critics of Liberty’s policy.

“We’re confident in the accuracy of our reporting,” she said.

Falwell has also questioned whether Liberty is being picked on for political reasons, noting that it’s not the only university in the country to have the same limited opening.

To that end, the university is planning to run newspaper advertisements in some southern cities where many of its students are from that draws comparisons to some other universities, he said.

The upcoming ad says that “Liberty’s response to COVID-19 puts us in pretty good company, despite what you might conclude from media accounts.”

US expels thousands to Mexico after largely halting asylum

ROGUE NATION STATE CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY

VIOLATES INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS ON RIGHTS OF ASYLUM POST WWII
FILE - In this Thursday, March 14, 2019, file photo, a Border Patrol agent talks with a group suspected of having entered the U.S. illegally near McAllen, Texas. The Trump administration has quietly shut down the nation's asylum system for the first time in decades amid coronavirus concerns, largely because holding people in custody is considered too dangerous. (AP Photo/Eric Gay, File)
A U.S. Border Patrol agent wouldn’t let Jackeline Reyes explain why she and her 15-year-old daughter fled Honduras and needed asylum, pointing to the coronavirus. It was just days after the Trump administration essentially shut down the nation’s asylum system.

“The agent told us about the virus and that we couldn’t go further, but she didn’t let us speak or anything,” said Reyes, 35, who was shuttled on March 24 to Reynosa, Mexico, a violent border city.

President Donald Trump’s administration is relying on a seldom-used public health law to set aside decades-old national and international immigration laws. People seeking refuge in the U.S. are whisked to the nearest border crossing and returned to Mexico without a chance to apply for asylum. It may be the most aggressive clampdown on immigration by a president who’s made reducing asylum claims a top priority.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection said Thursday that nearly 10,000 Mexicans and Central Americans have been “expelled” to Mexico since the rules took effect March 21. Mark Morgan, the agency’s acting commissioner, said the changes were “not about immigration.”

“What’s happening right now is a public health crisis driven by a global pandemic, which has resulted in a national emergency declared by this president to protect the health and safety of every American in this country,” he told reporters.

Mexico is providing critical support, agreeing to take migrants from Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, who accounted for well over half of all U.S. border arrests last year.

The Trump administration has offered little detail on the rules, which haven’t been challenged in court. The lack of specifics means the change got little attention when it went public March 20, the same day Trump announced at a news conference that the southern border was closed to nonessential travel.

The administration tapped a law allowing the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to ban foreigners if their entry would create “a serious danger” to the spread of communicable disease. The U.S. has the most confirmed cases in the world by far. CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield issued a 30-day order and said he may extend it.

“The administration is able to do what they always wanted to do,” said Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, policy counsel for the American Immigration Council, which has criticized the administration. “I don’t see this slowing down.”

Mexico said it won’t take unaccompanied children and other “vulnerable people.” Carlos Gonzalez Gutierrez, Mexico’s consul general in San Diego, said that includes people who are over 65, pregnant or sick.

FILE - In this Dec. 10, 2018, file photo, Border Patrol agents, right, detain a man during a protest near the border with Tijuana, Mexico, in San Diego. The Trump administration has quietly shut down the nation's asylum system for the first time in decades amid coronavirus concerns, largely because holding people in custody is considered too dangerous. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull, File)

The U.S. also is returning Central American children who travel with grandparents, siblings and other relatives, said a congressional aide who was briefed by Customs and Border Protection officials and spoke on the condition of anonymity because the information was not intended for public release. Previously, children who weren’t with parents or guardians were considered unaccompanied and automatically put into the asylum pipeline.

Full Coverage: Immigration

The health risks of holding migrants in crowded spaces like Border Patrol stations is “the touchstone of this order,” Redfield wrote. He said exceptions to immediately expelling someone can be considered but didn’t elaborate.

“If someone is deemed to have the appropriate level of fear, those will be processed on a case-by-case basis,” Morgan, the CBP acting chief, said Thursday.

An internal Border Patrol memo obtained by ProPublica offers some detail on exemptions: An agent who determines that a migrant claims a “reasonably believable” fear of being tortured can be referred for additional screening under the U.N. Convention Against Torture, a lesser form of asylum that’s harder to qualify for.

Matthew Dyman, a CBP spokesman, declined to comment on the memo this week.

“Obtaining and posting leaked information is a great way to degrade trust and communication between CBP and the media,” he said.

Under the rules, agents take migrants to the nearest border crossing in specially designated vehicles and avoid stations, minimizing the risk of exposure to the virus. Those not sent to Mexico are flown to their home countries.

CBP said it has less than 100 people in custody, down from a peak of more than 19,000 during last year’s surge of border crossers. During the first 11 days of the new rules, 6,375 people were expelled on the Mexican border and 20 on the Canadian border.

Ten Senate Democrats sent a letter to acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf, who oversees border agencies, saying the Trump administration appeared to have “granted itself sweeping powers to summarily expel large, unknown numbers of individuals arriving at our border.”

“A public health crisis does not give the Executive Branch a free pass to violate constitutional rights, nor does it give the Executive Branch permission to operate outside of the law,” they wrote Tuesday.
FILE - In this Nov. 16, 2016, file photo, a U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agent walks with suspected immigrants caught entering the country illegally along the Rio Grande in Hidalgo, Texas. The Trump administration has quietly shut down the nation's asylum system for the first time in decades amid coronavirus concerns, largely because holding people in custody is considered too dangerous. (AP Photo/Eric Gay, File)

For Reyes and others sent to Mexico, they don’t know what’s next. She tried getting home to Honduras despite learning her brother had been killed there and her mother and 7-year-old daughter had fled to the Nicaraguan border, but she’s stuck in Mexico as the virus closed borders in Central America.

Reyes said she joined dozens who entered the Guatemalan mountains illegally in a bid to reach Honduras but was stopped by soldiers and returned to Mexico, where she was quarantined in a migrant shelter.

Four adults and seven children expelled from Texas also crossed into the mountains and are now hiding at a house in Guatemala because of a curfew tied to the virus.

“We want to leave already, but I don’t know who can help us,” said Fanny Jaqueline Ortiz of Honduras, who was with her 12- and 3-year-old daughters. “There is no transportation, no bus, nothing.”

Many Mexican shelters have closed, leaving many stranded in violent cities or reliant on relatives in the U.S. to send money.

Trump’s previous policies have targeted asylum but stopped short of suspending it altogether, acknowledging the 1951 U.N. Refugee Convention to provide haven to displaced people and a 1980 U.S. law that established the asylum system.

___

Verza reported from Mexico City and Fox from Washington. Associated Press reporters Astrid Galvan, Nomaan Merchant and Elliot Spagat contributed to this report

Official: Saints emails on clergy crisis should stay secret

 NO THEY SHOULD NOT PUBLIC'S RIGHT TO KNOW
FILE - In this Oct. 23, 2016, file photo, a New Orleans Saints helmet rests on the playing field before an NFL football game in Kansas City, Mo. An Associated Press review of public tax documents found that the Bensons' foundation has given at least $62 million to the Archdiocese of New Orleans and other Catholic causes over the past dozen years, including gifts to schools, universities, charities and individual parishes. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File)


Hundreds of emails detailing the New Orleans Saints’ efforts to conduct damage control for the area’s Roman Catholic archdiocese amid its clergy sexual abuse crisis should remain shielded from the public, a court official recommended Thursday.

The recommendation by a court special master came almost three months after The Associated Press urged the release of the confidential emails as a matter of public interest. Those emails emerged as part of a lawsuit against the church and it will ultimately be up to a judge in that case to make the final decision.

Releasing the messages would only “embarrass or bring under public scrutiny” those who tried to help the Archdiocese of New Orleans as it sought to weather the fallout from the clergy abuse crisis, retired Judge Carolyn Gill-Jefferson wrote in a five-page filing.

AND THAT WOULD BE A GOOD THING

She agreed with church leaders and the Saints that the communications were private, writing that “the exchange of information during discovery is to be held within the confines of the pending litigation and outside of public view.”

Attorneys for about two dozen men suing the church have alleged the emails show that the NFL team, whose owner is devoutly Catholic, aided the church in its “ pattern and practice of concealing its crimes.”

One of the attorneys, Richard Trahant, said he will object to Gill-Jefferson’s recommendation, which has not yet been adopted by the judge presiding over the lawsuit. It was not immediately clear when the judge would rule on the issue.

The Saints have said they have nothing to hide and that the team does not object to the emails being made public during a later stage of the litigation.

The Saints acknowledged giving church leaders advice on how to handle media attention surrounding the 2018 release of a list naming more than 50 clergy members “credibly accused” of sexual abuse.

The Saints have close ties to the archdiocese, and New Orleans Archbishop Gregory Aymond is a close friend of team owner Gayle Benson, who inherited the Saints and the New Orleans Pelicans basketball team when her husband, Tom Benson, died in 2018.

Gloomy report on US jobs suggests even bigger losses


WASHINGTON (AP) – A gloomy glimpse of the sudden collapse of the US labor market appeared on Friday with a report that employers cut hundreds of thousands of jobs last month due to the viral epidemic that brought the economy almost stalled.

The loss of 701,000 jobs, reported by the Ministry of Labor, ended nearly a decade of uninterrupted job growth, the longest streak of its kind ever recorded. The unemployment rate jumped from a low of 3.5% to 4.4% in 50 years in March – the largest month-over-month increase in the unemployment rate since 1975.

And this is just a preview of what will happen.

Economists expect record 20 million losses and unemployment rate of around 15%, the highest in years, for April employment report to be released in early May 1930.

The sheer scale of the layoffs is wreaking havoc on the economies of the United States and abroad, which are said to be in deep recessions. As more and more people lose their jobs – or fear they will – their consumer spending will decrease. This drop in spending, which is the main driver of the economy, is putting pressure on businesses that are still in business.

Economists hope that an extraordinary series of congressional and Federal Reserve bailouts will help stabilize the US economy in the months to come. The main goals of the recently promulgated $ 2.2 trillion congressional rescue program are to quickly get money into people’s hands and to encourage companies to avoid job cuts or to quickly recall dismissed employees.

The package includes an additional $ 600 a week in unemployment benefits in addition to regular government payments and ideally will allow millions of new unemployed people to pay their rent and other bills. But that will not compensate for the wide range of expenses that Americans generally incur and that have now been lost – from dining out and paying gym memberships to buying new furniture, cars and electronic gadgets. Indeed, Oxford Economics says that for the April to June quarter, this decline will likely result in the largest quarterly drop in consumer spending ever recorded.

Katharine Abraham, an economist at the University of Maryland, said that if the extra help succeeds in helping many unemployed people avoid excessive debt, “when businesses reopen … they should be able to spend money.”

Yet even taking into account government intervention, Joel Prakken, chief economist of the United States at IHS Markit, predicts that the economy will contract sharply in the quarter from April to June – by 26.5% per year, the worst record ever since the First World War. II.

Many economists say additional government support will be needed, especially if the virus persists until the end of the summer.

Job losses in March were probably even greater than what was reported on Friday, as the government questioned employers before the biggest layoffs in the past two weeks. Almost 10 million Americans claimed unemployment benefits in the last two weeks of March, far exceeding the figure for any corresponding period recorded. These layoffs will be reflected in the April job report.

“This is an ugly jobs report, showing that the pain in the economy started in early March, long before the surge in initial weekly job demand data,” said Joseph Song, economist at Bank of America Securities. “It will get worse in future reports.”

Brad Hershbein, a senior economist at the Upjohn Institute for Job Research, said the job loss last month likely reflected the nervousness of companies that had cut hiring before the deluge of layoffs.

A sign of the painful scale of the job losses is likely to come to light: in its nearly decade-long recruiting streak, the US economy created 22.8 million jobs. Economists expect the April employment report released in early May to show that all of these jobs could have been lost.

.

Low-income service workers were hit hard by job losses in March, with restaurants, hotels and casinos accounting for about two-thirds of them – a loss of 459,000 jobs. Retailers lost 46,000.

Yet layoffs have also started to infiltrate many other sectors of the economy. Doctors’ offices have cut 12,000 jobs, most according to records dating from 1972. Law firms have cut 1,700 jobs. Banks and real estate companies have also lost jobs.

Many employers have reduced the working hours of some employees. The number of part-time workers who would prefer full-time work jumped by a third in March to 5.8 million.

Bridget Hughes had her work hours cut in half before being forced to take two weeks off from Burger King and isolate herself after her aunt tested positive for COVID 19. She will be quarantined until next week. The restaurant where she worked in Kansas City, Missouri, has cut about two-thirds of its staff and offers only driving service. Hughes, 49, does not know when she can return to work.

She applied for unemployment benefits, but state officials told her it could take up to 30 days before her claim was processed and her first check was issued.

“We were already living paycheck to paycheck,” she said. “I don’t know if we’re going to make rent this month. We have a hard time putting food on the table. “

A key determinant of the future of the economy will be whether companies can survive the closure and quickly re-hire workers who consider themselves temporarily laid off. If so, it would help the economy to recede and avoid the kind of weak recovery that followed the last three slowdowns.

But if the virus epidemic forces businesses to remain closed until the end of the summer, many are at risk of going bankrupt or will not have the money to re-hire their former employees. This would mean that many workers who now consider themselves on temporary layoff could lose their jobs.



So far, some large and small businesses are still paying for health care benefits and staying in touch with their recently laid-off workers, a slightly optimistic sign amid the deluge of job cuts.

However, many are worried about the permanent disappearance of their jobs.

Megan-Claire Chase, 43, of Dunwoody, Georgia, was laid off a week ago from her job as a marketing manager in a recruiting company. Chase, a four-year-old cancer survivor, was laid off in 2008 and it took two years to find a job. This time, she is even more afraid.

“There is so much uncertainty,” she said. ″ How do you bounce? There is no calendar because there is no history. “

___

AP Retail editor Anne D’Innocenzio contributed to this report from New York.

US gig workers and self-employed face delays in jobless aid

A woman looks to get information about job application in front of IDES (Illinois Department of Employment Security) WorkNet center in Arlington Heights, Ill., Thursday, April 9, 2020. Another 6.6 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week, according to the US Department of Labor, as American workers continue to suffer from devastating job losses, furloughs and reduced hours during the coronavirus pandemic. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

WASHINGTON (AP) — After Rich Cruse saw about $3,000 in income for his photography business quickly disappear to the coronavirus, he tried to apply for unemployment benefits in California. But like many states, his isn’t yet accepting claims from the self-employed like him.

That’s left Cruse, 58, earning just meager pay driving for Uber Eats near San Diego. And he worries about the health risks.

“I wear a mask and am practically eating hand sanitizer,” he said. “It’s not what I am supposed to be doing.”

Even as nearly 17 million Americans have sought unemployment benefits in the past three weeks — a record high, by far — millions of people appear to be falling through the cracks. They can’t get through jammed phone systems or finish their applications on overloaded websites. Or they’re confused about whether or how to apply.

And now there is a whole new category of people — gig workers, independent contractors and self-employed people like Cruse. The federal government’s $2.2 trillion economic relief package for the first time extended unemployment aid to cover those workers when they lose their jobs. Yet most states have yet to update their systems to process these applications.

The struggles at U.S. unemployment systems run by the states contrasts with the smoother and more robust protections that many European governments provide for millions who have been thrown out of work as a result of the viral outbreak. In France, for example, 5.8 million people — about a quarter of the private-sector workforce — are now on a “partial unemployment” plan: With the government’s help, they receive part of their wages while temporarily laid off or while working shorter hours.

Larisa Ignatovich, who works as a household helper for families around Paris, is among them. French confinement measures mean she can leave only to buy groceries or for medical emergencies. When the confinement rules were imposed in March, her husband’s construction work dried up, and she could no longer work. Ignatovich feared they would lack money for food and rent.

But then the government announced special programs to help prevent virus-related layoffs. Under the plan, Ignatovich’s employers continue to pay her, and the government reimburses the employer 80% of the sum.

Many European governments seek to subsidize wages in downturns so that workers can remain attached to their employers. By contrast, the U.S. approach typically is to provide support to those who’ve lost jobs. But unemployment aid doesn’t cover everyone. It can be limited to six months or less.

Some economists argue that the European approach explains why unemployment rates there don’t spike as high in downturns as in the United States, and fewer workers drop out of the workforce compared with the United States.

The new U.S. economic relief package does include $350 billion in loans for small companies that agree to retain or rehire their employees. These loans are forgiven if they’re used for wages. But that program is off to a rocky start. And Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has already asked Congress for more money given the tidal wave of applications for the loans.

For workers with traditional jobs, state unemployment agencies can use their employers’ tax records to confirm that they’re employed and determine their earnings history to set their benefit levels. Those workers are eligible in part because their companies pay into state unemployment funds.

By contrast, self-employed and gig workers typically haven’t contributed to unemployment funds. And neither have the online platforms that they work through. Now that they’re eligible for jobless benefits, those workers will have to provide paperwork to document their incomes. Compounding the challenges, the federal government is providing an additional $600 per week of jobless aid beyond what states provide. This federal money must be routed through the states — another new responsibility.

All of this takes time, which means money can’t get to the jobless recipients very quickly.

This April 5, 2020, photo provided by Lauren Boisvert shows Boisvert Manchester, N.H. Boisvert, who had been working at a paint bar and as a substitute teacher for two schools while also finishing her senior year at the Institute of Art and Design at New England College, applied for unemployment benefits after going from three jobs to zero. The state has seen more unemployment claims in the past three weeks due to the virus pandemic. (Lauren Boisvert via AP)


“I suspect it may take much longer than governments and workers want before the unemployment benefits arrive,” said Dmitri Koustas, an assistant professor of public policy at the University of Chicago.

Under the economic relief package, the federal government will pay the benefits for the self-employed and other newly eligible groups. But states must evaluate whether an applicant is actually eligible. Koustas says many states fear they’ll be stuck with the bill if they mistakenly approve someone.

For that reason, some states are requiring the self-employed and gig workers to apply for regular state unemployment benefits first. Only if their claims are rejected can they apply for the new federal coverage.

Massachusetts has warned that its unemployment office won’t be able to accept claims from gig workers, contractors or the self-employed until April 30. The office has turned to a vendor to establish a new platform for those applications.

In North Carolina, the state unemployment office, which has received a whopping 497,000 jobless claims since mid-March, said it won’t likely be able to accept applications from independent contractors and the self-employed for two more weeks.

Pringle Teetor, 62, of Chapel Hill, had to close the glass-blowing studio she co-owns after her revenue evaporated once local art galleries shuttered and spring festivals were canceled. She’s filed for unemployment benefits. But Teetor isn’t sure whether her application cleared because she kept getting dropped off the computer system. Though she has some savings, she may seek other work if she can’t reopen her studio soon. Her husband’s dental practice remains closed.

“If this goes on much longer, it’s going to change everything,” Teetor said.

In California, Cruse tried to apply unemployment benefits after two of the road races that he photographs for charitable groups were canceled. But after filling out forms online, he was told he wasn’t eligible. The state has yet to update its website for self-employed workers.

Cruse used to regularly take sunset photos from the beach, which he would post on social media to promote his photography business. But with the beaches closed, he can’t even do that.

“The prospects aren’t that great for me for the next two to three months at least,” he said. “All the existing work that I have is gone.”

___

AP Writers Angela Charlton in Paris and Gary Robertson in Raleigh, North Carolina, contributed to this report.

Is this the end of civilisation as we know it? 

SOCIALISM OR BARBARISM

AFP / Alberto PIZZOLI

For many, the COVID-19 crisis has shown how fragile our civilisation is

"The world will never be the same again," has been the oft-repeated refrain since the coronavirus brought the global economy to a juddering halt.

For many it has shown how fragile our civilisation is.

The crisis has come as a new movement called "collapsology" -- which warns of the possible collapse of our societies as we know them -- is gaining ground.

With climate change exposing how unsustainable the economic and social model based on fossil fuels is, they fear orthodox thinking may be speeding us to our doom.

The theory first emerged from France's Momentum Institute, and was popularised by a 2015 book, "How Everything Can Collapse".

Some of its supporters, like former French environment minister Yves Cochet, believe the coronavirus crisis is another sign of impending catastrophe.

- Virus domino effect -

While the mathematician, who founded France's Green party "still hesitates" about saying whether the virus will be the catalyst for a domino effect, he quoted the quip that "it's too early to say if it's too late".

Yet Cochet -- whose book "Before the Collapse" predicts a meltdown in the next decade -- is convinced that the virus will lead to "a global economic crisis of greater severity than has been imagined".

The 74-year-old, who retired to France's rural Brittany region so he could live more sustainably, is also worried about an impending "global disaster with lots of victims, both economic and otherwise".

"What is happening now is a symptom of a whole series of weaknesses," warned Professor Yves Citton of Paris VIII University.

"It isn't the end of the world but a warning about something that has already been set in motion," he told AFP, "a whole series of collapses that have begun".

The slide may be slow, said Jean-Marc Jancovici, who heads the Shift Project think-tank which aims to "free economics from carbon". But "a little step has been taken (with the virus) that there is no going back on", he argued.

Pablo Servigne, the ecologist and agricultural engineer who co-wrote "How Everything Can Collapse", has a more chilling take.

"The big lesson of history... and of the Horsemen of the Apocalypse is that pestilence, war and famine tend to follow in each others' wake. We have a pandemic which could lead to another shock -- wars, conflicts and famines," he warned.

"And famines will make us more vulnerable to other pandemics...."

- A chance to change -

Grim as that prospect may be, influential philosopher and sociologist Bruno Latour said the crisis has give us a chance to imagine alternatives to neo-liberal capitalism.

He warned on his blog that the world had "to make sure that, after the virus crisis, things don't start again as they were before.

"Let us take advantage of the forced suspension of most activities to take stock of those we would like to see discontinued and those that we would like to see developed."

The virus had also shown, he wrote in a piece for the AOC online daily, "that it is possible in a few weeks to suspend a global economic system that until now everyone said was impossible to slow or adjust."

Servigne too can see a bright side, comparing the lockdown to someone "pulling the alarm signal on a train", with states now intervening in social and economic policy in ways that have long been taboo.

He was also "inspired by the way that nature has reacted as soon as we stopped our craziness" and taken back spaces freed up by our confinement.

The good news from an environmental point of view, said Jancovici, was that "money is no longer a problem" for political leaders. "'Need 500 billion? We will find it!'" he added.

But the bailout and economic salvage plans that are being set in place should be as non-polluting as possible, Jancovici argued, adding that we had to use this chance to move towards a system not based on carbon.

Nevertheless, he fears that "the only plan that will come to mind will be to continue as before to save jobs".

And it is not just down to governments. If the first thing people do when the lockdown ends is book a flight to get away from it all, Citton said, then we really will be sealing our own fate.

CAPITALIST CRISIS 

Coronavirus plunges world economy into brutal recession

AFP / Ludovic MARINSorry we're closed! - lockdowns are sending the world economy into a massive recession

Measures imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus are pushing the world economy into a recession deeper and more painful than initially expected, even if a rebound is still on the cards for next year.

A week before the International Monetary Fund updates its forecasts for the global economy that will take into account the initial damage incurred since the coronavirus emerged in China at the start of the year, the first sets of data are coming in.

France's central bank estimated Wednesday that the country's economy contracted by around six percent in the first three months of 2020, its worst quarterly performance since World War II.

Meanwhile, the leading economic institutes in Germany expect Europe's top economy to contract by nearly 10 percent in the second quarter.

That would be twice as deep as the contraction Germany suffered in 2009 as the global financial crisis hit the continent, and it would constitute the country's worst performance since the institutes began keeping records in 1970.

"During the first two quarters of the year, the economies of Western countries are collapsing," said Philippe Waechter, economist at Ostrum Asset Management.

If the United States is somewhat behind Europe in terms of shutting down businesses to stem the spread of the coronavirus and first-quarter figures will not be impacted, the effect is likely to make itself felt in the second quarter.

- 'Deepest recession of our lives' -

"It's impossible to imagine that the United States could escape the deep recession being suffered elsewhere," said Waechter.

Both California, which has the world's fifth-largest economy ahead of Britain and France, and the US financial capital New York City are both under confinement measures.

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization said Wednesday it expects world trade to tumble by between 13 and 32 percent this year.

WTO chief Roberto Azevedo warned the world is facing the "deepest economic recession or downturn of our lives."

Forecasts made just a few weeks ago have become outdated.

In mid-March, Moody's ratings agency said it expected moderate recessions of around two percent this year in the United States and 2.2 percent for the eurozone.

Since then, most of Europe has followed Italy and Spain into lockdown, as has much of the United States, slamming the brakes on both production and consumption.

The chief economist of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Laurence Boone, told France Inter radio Wednesday that every month in lockdown would lead to 2.0-percent decline in annual gross domestic product.

"We have production levels dropping on the order of 25 to 30 percent across all of the countries" in the OECD club of industrialised nations, she said.

- A rebound in 2021? -

With none of world's regions set to escape unscathed, the recession could well last longer than some have so far expected.

"In 2021, we can hope for growth similar to that of the past, but there is a fair amount of uncertainty," said Waechter.

One of the big question marks is whether a vaccine can be developed and marketed quickly to avoid another wave of infections, and whether factories will be able to restart production quickly.

"Considering how slow China's recovery is becoming, it is hard to argue that the US and European economies will recover quickly," said Edward Moya, analyst at online forex trading firm OANDA.

"If China is only halfway back up and running, patience will be needed to see how the rest of the world will turn out," he wrote in a note to investors.

The OECD's Boone said forecasting has become very difficult.

"We could partially exit the lockdown, but if the population has little immunity and the rest of the world is the same, we could face a new wave of virus infections and a new period of lockdowns," she said.

 

Global trade will plunge by up to a third in 

2020: WTO

AFP / Fabrice COFFRINIWTO chief Roberto Azevedo gave the warning during a virtual news conference

Global trade could plummet by a third this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, the World Trade Organization said Wednesday, warning the deepest recession "of our lifetimes" could be on the horizon.

"COVID-19 has completely upended the global economy and with it international trade," WTO chief Roberto Azevedo told reporters in a virtual briefing from Geneva.

The global trade body was projecting that "trade in 2020 will fall steeply in every region of the world, and basically across all sectors of the economy," he said.

The WTO acknowledged that there was huge uncertainty around how the economic crisis around the pandemic, which has infected more than 1.4 million people globally and killed nearly 83,000, would unfold.

Stressing that the situation was first and foremost a health crisis, Azevedo warned that "the unavoidable declines in trade and output will have painful consequences for households and businesses, on top of the human suffering caused by the disease itself."

WTO presented two scenarios that it deemed "plausible", depending on how quickly the pandemic was conquered and the measures governments put in place to dampen the blow.

"In an optimistic scenario, our economists see the volume of global merchandise trade falling by 13 percent this year compared to 2019," Azevedo said.

That outlook points to a sharp drop in trade followed by a recovery starting in the second half of 2020.

- 32 percent drop, or more -

"If the pandemic is brought under control relatively soon, and the right policies are in place, trade and output could rebound nearly to their pre-pandemic trajectory as early as 2021, regardless of how steep the initial fall is," Azevedo said.

But he warned that "if the pandemic is not brought under control and governments fail to implement and coordinate effective policy responses, the decline could be 32 percent, or even more."

North America and Asia would be hardest-hit and could see their exports plunge by 40 and 36 percent respectively, while Europe and South America could see declines of more than 30 percent, the WTO said.

"These numbers are ugly," Azevedo acknowledged. "There is no way around that."

The downturn "may well be the deepest economic recession or downturn of our lifetimes", he said, calling on governments to "make the most of all potential drivers of sustainable growth to reverse this situation."

In its main annual forecast, the 164-member WTO pointed out that trade had already been slowing in 2019, before the emergence of the novel coronavirus.

Trade tensions, uncertainty and slowing economic growth weighed on global merchandise trade, which registered a slight decline of 0.1 percent in 2019 after rising 2.9 percent a year earlier.

The dollar value of world merchandise exports fell by three percent to $18.89 trillion, the WTO said.

World commercial services trade fared better last year, with exports in dollar terms rising by two percent to $6.03 trillion, but the expansion was far slower than in 2018, when services trade increased by nine percent, said the WTO.

- Worse that financial crisis -

However, the situation has taken a dramatic turn since COVID-19 first emerged in China late last year.

The WTO said that while the global shock might invite comparisons to the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the situation now was worse.

Governments around the world have taken radical measures to try to halt the spread of the deadly virus, including closing schools and public spaces and asking more than half of humanity to remain at home.

"Restrictions on movement and social distancing to slow the spread of the disease mean that labour supply, transport and travel are today directly affected in ways they were not during the financial crisis," it said.

"Whole sectors of national economies have been shut down, including hotels, restaurants, non-essential retail trade, tourism and significant shares of manufacturing."

Developments remained very uncertain, but WTO said countries could ensure a faster and stronger rebound through international cooperation.

"A turn towards protectionism would introduce new shocks on top of those we are currently enduring," Azevedo said.

"Keeping markets open to international trade and investment would help economies recover more quickly," he said, insisting that "we will see a much faster recovery than if each country goes it alone."