COUNTER HEGEMONY MEETING

Putin's expanded BRICS summit proves he has friends — but risks buckling under its own contradictions

Thibault Spirlet,Huileng Tan
Updated Tue, October 22, 2024 


Russia is hosting a BRICS summit this week, showing the limits of attempts to isolate it.


The grouping is buoyant after ballooning from five members to nine.


A larger membership, though, widens the chance of internal conflict that impedes the bloc's aims.

Russia is flexing its muscles at the center of the BRICS economic bloc, which seeks to rival the West.

The nation is hosting a meeting of the group this week, the first since the group almost doubled its membership.

The larger grouping gives members more weight — and is a rebuke to Western-led attempts to isolate Russia economically.

But it also complicates things, introducing new competing interests and rivalries.

Geopolitical analysts say it could dilute the group's ability to take action and reduce it to a talking shop.

Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates are the new BRICS entrants, joining the earlier members Russia, India, China, Brazil, and South Africa. Saudi Arabia has been invited to join but has not formally done so yet.

Russian President Vladimir Putin touted the expansion as proof of the group's "growing authority" and role in international affairs.

Yet geopolitical tensions and competing interests within the group are dragging down Russia's efforts to use it to chip away at the dominance of the West, particularly the US dollar.

"BRICS expansion is no easy task," said Abishur Prakash, the founder of The Geopolitical Business, a strategy advisory firm in Toronto. "It risks creating rival camps within the group."
A 'raw' grouping

Since the bloc's founding in 2006 — with Brazil, Russia, India, and China as members before South Africa joined in 2010 — it has tried to challenge Western economic dominance.

Over the past two decades, its members experienced significant economic growth. After the recent expansion, its member states represent almost 46% of the world's population and about 25% of global exports.

Last year, more than 40 countries expressed interest in joining the bloc.

But Anton Barbashin, the cofounder and editorial director at Riddle Russia, an online journal on Russian affairs, described the group as a "raw collection" of countries.

He said it had "no chance" of political unity given its members' competing interests and starkly differing attitudes.

Members have grappled with internal disagreements over relations with the West, territorial claims, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Others are engaged in internal standoffs. India and China have clashed over disputed territory along their border, though they announced a deal on patrolling arrangements this week.

Some countries — notably India and South Africa — also have a tricky balancing act to do, engaging with the group without alienating their partners in the West.
Talking shop

Barbashin told BI that the BRICS summit was important for Russia because it had been cut out from other international platforms.

It's a way to communicate and possibly strike "some deals in the future that we don't necessarily foresee," he said.

In total, representatives of 32 countries are set to attend the summit this week, according to Moscow.

But Barbashin said the group's size masked its relative impotence.

"It's just a nice facade," he said, "and it falls within the idea that economic growth should translate into a greater political setting."

Leaders are expected to discuss how far members are willing to commit to the group.

Una Aleksandra Berzina-Cerenkova, the director at Riga Stradins University's China Studies Center, told Politico that "China uses BRICS to give it a mandate to push global visions and post-Western vision."

During a press briefing held by the Center for European Policy Analysis on Monday, one analyst foresaw major hurdles for the group to move past its status as a "debating club."

Evgeny Roshchin, a visiting scholar at Johns Hopkins University's Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs, said the group would need to choose how to distribute power among its members should more join.

"Behind the rhetoric, there's a huge concern — even within Russia — whether the new members will become their equals," he said, noting that Russia could lose its leverage and decision-making among a large group of notionally equal members.
Taking on the dollar

Another challenge BRICS members like Russia and China face is trying to change the fundamentals of global financial-trading systems that rely overwhelmingly on the US dollar.

During a BRICS Business Forum in Moscow last week, Putin said group members were working on alternative payment systems as a rival to SWIFT.

The alternative systems would aid cross-border payments between members, according to a report by Russia's finance ministry, its central bank, and the consultancy Yakov & Partners.

It envisioned a network of payments using local currencies rather than a default reserve currency like the dollar.

Russia already has a model it can look to for transactions among central banks: the mBridge system under the Bank for International Settlements.

BRICS members are also toying with alternative currencies, spanning China's digital yuan and Moscow's interest in crypto.

The greenback, though, will be hard to dethrone — even without competing priorities and rivalry among BRICS members.

"Russia wants to create an alternative to Western financial infrastructures," Barbashin said.

But "there's no chance of making anything like a union or an alliance," he said.

He said that while BRICS members were united in a desire for change, "there's no real strategy within BRICS aside from fancy phrases to make it work."

Modi tells Putin that India wants peace in Ukraine

Updated Tue, October 22, 2024 
By Vladimir Soldatkin and Guy Faulconbridge

KAZAN, Russia (Reuters) -India's Narendra Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin on the eve of the BRICS summit that he wanted peace in Ukraine and that New Delhi was ready to help achieve a truce to end Europe's deadliest conflict since World War Two.

Putin, who ordered tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in February 2022, wants the BRICS summit to showcase the rising clout of the non-Western world after the United States and its European and Asian allies tried to isolate Russia over the war.

Russia is expecting 22 leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping who arrived on Tuesday, to attend the summit meeting of the BRICS, which accounts for 45% of the world's population and 35% of the global economy.

Putin, who is cast by the West as a war criminal, thanked Prime Minister Modi for accepting the invitation to visit Kazan, a city on the banks of the Volga, and said Russia and India shared a "privileged strategic partnership".

Modi thanked Putin for his "strong friendship", praised growing cooperation and the evolution of BRICS but also said that India felt the conflict in Ukraine should be ended peacefully.

"We have been in constant touch on the subject of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine," Modi said. "We believe that problems should be resolved only through peaceful means."

"We fully support the early restoration of peace and stability. All our efforts give priority to humanity. India is ready to provide all possible support in the times to come," he said, adding that he would discuss the issues with Putin.

The BRICS summit takes place as global finance chiefs gather in Washington amid war in the Middle East as well as Ukraine, a flagging Chinese economy and worries that the U.S. presidential election could ignite new trade battles.

With BRICS expanding - and a waiting list of potential members - there is anxiety among some about whether expansion will make the group unwieldy.

China and India, the top purchasers of Russian oil, have difficult relations, while there is little love lost between Arab nations and Iran.

SECURITY INTERESTS

When asked by BRICS reporters about the prospects for peace, Putin said that Moscow would not trade away the four regions of eastern Ukraine that it says are now part of Russia and that Moscow wants its long-term security interests taken into account in Europe.

Two Russian sources said that, while there was increasing talk in Moscow of a possible ceasefire agreement, there was nothing concrete yet - and that the world was awaiting the result of the Nov. 5 presidential election in the United States.

Russia, which is advancing, controls about one fifth of Ukraine, including Crimea which it seized and unilaterally annexed in 2014, about 80% of the Donbas - a coal-and-steel zone comprising the Donetsk and Luhansk regions - and over 70% of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

Putin said the West had now realised that Russia would be victorious, but that he was open to talks based on draft ceasefire agreements reached in Istanbul in April 2022.

On the eve of the BRICS summit, Putin met with United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan for informal talks that went on until midnight at his Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow.

BRICS

Putin has praised both Sheikh Mohammed and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who will not attend the summit in Kazan, for their mediation efforts over Ukraine.

"We are ready to make any efforts to resolve crises and in the interests of peace, in the interests of both sides," Sheikh Mohammed told Putin.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva cancelled his trip following medical advice to temporarily avoid long-haul flights after a head injury at home.

The acronym BRIC was coined in 2001 by then-Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O'Neill in a research paper that underlined the massive growth potential of Brazil, Russia, India and China this century.

Russia, India and China began to meet more formally, eventually adding Brazil, then South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia has yet to formally join.

BRICS' share of global GDP is forecast to rise to 37% by the end of this decade while the share accounted for by the Group of Seven major Western economies will decline to about 28% from 30% this year, according to International Monetary Fund data.

Russia is seeking to convince BRICS countries to build an alternative platform for international payments that would be immune to Western sanctions.

(Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge, Dmitry Antonov, Gleb Bryanski and Marina Bobrova in Moscow; and Sudipto Ganguly in Mumbai; Editing by Kevin Liffey and Ros Russell)


Putin hosts Global South leaders at BRICS summit meant to counterbalance Western clout

Associated Press
Updated Tue, October 22, 2024 

KAZAN, Russia (AP) — China’s Xi Jinping, India’s Narendra Modi and other global leaders arrived Tuesday in the Russian city of Kazan for a summit of the BRICS bloc of developing economies that the Kremlin hopes to turn into a rallying point for defying what some see as the Western liberal order.

For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the three-day meeting also offers a powerful way to demonstrate the failure of U.S.-led efforts to isolate Russia over its actions in Ukraine.

Kremlin foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov touted the summit as “the largest foreign policy event ever held” by Russia, with 36 countries attending and more than 20 of them represented by heads of state.

The alliance that initially comprised Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa has expanded rapidly to embrace Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Turkey, Azerbaijan and Malaysia have formally applied to become members, and a few others have expressed interest in joining.

Observers see the BRICS summit as part of the Kremlin's efforts to showcase support from the Global South amid spiraling tensions with the West and help expand economic and financial ties.

Proposed projects include the creation of a new payment system that would offer an alternative to the global bank messaging network SWIFT and allow Moscow to dodge Western sanctions and trade with partners.

Putin is set to hold about 20 bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the summit, including Tuesday's encounters with China’s Xi, India’s Modi and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.

The summit underlined the close relationship between Xi and Putin, who announced a “no-limits” partnership weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. They already have met at least twice this year, in Beijing in May and at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kazakhstan in July.

Russia’s cooperation with India has also flourished as New Delhi considers Moscow a time-tested partner since Cold War times despite Russia’s close ties with India’s main rival, China.

Western allies want India to be more active in persuading Moscow to end the war in Ukraine, but Modi has avoided condemning Russia while emphasizing a peaceful settlement.

Modi, who last visited Russia in July, said this visit reflects the close friendship between the countries. Speaking at the start of his meeting with Putin, he also reaffirmed New Delhi's push for peace in Ukraine.

Putin hailed what he described as a “privileged strategic partnership" between Russia and India.

On Thursday, Putin is also set to meet with United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who will be making his first visit to Russia in more than two years. Guterres has repeatedly criticized Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

Putin to host BRICS summit looking to advance Russia's own interests

Oman Al Yahyai
Mon, October 21, 2024 


Putin to host BRICS summit looking to advance Russia's own interests


Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to meet with several world leaders in the upcoming days, including China’s Xi Jinping, India’s Narendra Modi, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian.

They will all gather in the Russian city of Kazan on Tuesday for a BRICS summit, despite prior speculations that the Ukraine war and an international arrest warrant would isolate Putin.

BRICS, originally formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has expanded significantly this year. New members include Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia have also formally applied, with other countries expressing interest.

Russian officials already view the summit as a major success. According to Putin’s foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, 32 countries have confirmed participation, with more than 20 heads of state attending.

Ushakov mentioned that Putin plans to hold around 20 bilateral meetings, suggesting this could become “the largest foreign policy event ever held” on Russian soil.

World leaders pose during the BRICS summit in Xiamen, China, on 4 September 2017 - Wu Hong/Pool Photo via AP, File
Why has BRICS become more important recently?

For Putin, the event is essential both symbolically and practically. It shows Russia standing alongside global allies despite tensions with the West. On a practical level, the Kremlin will use the summit to negotiate deals aimed at improving its economy and war effort.

Analysts note that for other participants, the summit presents an opportunity to boost their narratives on the global stage.

China and India are particularly important partners for Russia. Moscow will explore ways to expand trade and evade Western sanctions, with India being a significant buyer of Russian commodities, while China could provide dual-use goods critical to Russia’s military efforts.

Additionally, Russia aims to gain wider support for an alternative payment system to bypass the global SWIFT network, in hopes that a platform involving key players like China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil could be immune from US sanctions.

Iran, another key participant, is expected to formalise a strategic partnership with Russia. This comes after Iran reportedly provided Russia with drones during its invasion of Ukraine, which both countries deny. In exchange, Tehran is seeking advanced Russian weapons to defend against potential threats from Israel.

Meanwhile, China views BRICS as a way to promote alternatives to the US-led global order. Beijing has been a key advocate for expanding the bloc, and the Kazan summit will deepen economic, technological, and military ties within the group.

Related

Turkey wouldn't be interested in joining BRICS if it was an EU member state, foreign minister says


How the BRICS expansion could shake up the world economy

While Putin will seek to emphasise his close relationship with Xi, experts are watching for signs of subtle distancing by China, especially regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine, as Xi seeks to maintain a neutral stance.

India’s Modi is expected to strike a delicate balance, maintaining the country's long-standing ties with Russia while also being mindful of Western pressure to encourage Moscow towards peace.

Likewise, Turkey’s Erdogan, frustrated with the West, is likely to use the summit to strengthen his standing and navigate between different global power blocs.

For Putin, this summit will show that Western efforts to isolate him have failed while highlighting the shifting global power balance, with emerging economies seeking a stronger international role.

Putin gathers allies to show West's pressure isn’t working

Steve Rosenberg - Russia editor
Tue, October 22, 2024

The Kremlin says the summit is one of the "largest-scale foreign policy events ever" in Russia [Reuters]

Imagine you're Vladimir Putin.

The West has dubbed you a pariah for invading Ukraine. Sanctions are aiming to cut off your country's economy from global markets.

And there's an arrest warrant out for you from the International Criminal Court.

How can you show the pressure is not working? Try hosting a summit.

This week in the city of Kazan President Putin will greet more than 20 heads of state at the Brics summit of emerging economies. Among the leaders invited are China’s Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

The Kremlin has called it one of the "largest-scale foreign policy events ever" in Russia.

"The clear message is that attempts to isolate Russia have failed," thinks Chris Weafer, founding partner of consultancy firm Macro-Advisory.

"It's a big part of the messaging from the Kremlin that Russia is withstanding sanctions. We know there are severe cracks beneath the surface. But at a geopolitical level Russia has all these friends and they’re all going to be Russia's partners."

So, who are Russia's friends?

Brics stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The grouping, often referred to as a counterweight to the Western-led world, has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

Saudi Arabia, too, has been invited to join.

The Brics nations account for 45% of the global population. Added together, members' economies are worth more than $28.5tn (£22tn). That's around 28% of the global economy.

This year's Brics summit is taking place in Kazan, Russia [EPA]

Russian officials have indicated that another 30 countries want to join Brics or seek closer ties with the club. Some of these nations will take part in the summit. In Kazan this week expect a lot of talk about Brics representing the "global majority".

But apart from providing Vladimir Putin his moment on the geopolitical stage, what is the event likely to achieve?

Keen to ease the pressure from Western sanctions, the Kremlin leader will hope to convince Brics members to adopt an alternative to the dollar for global payments.

"A lot of the problems Russia's economy is facing are linked to cross-border trade and payments. And a lot of that is linked to the US dollar," says Mr Weafer.

"The US Treasury has enormous power and influence over global trade simply because the US dollar is the main currency for settling that. Russia's main interest is in breaking the dominance of the US dollar. It wants Brics countries to create an alternative trade mechanism and cross-border settlement system that does not involve the dollar, the euro or any of the G7 currencies, so that sanctions won't matter so much."

But critics point to differences within Brics. "Likeminded" is not a word you would use to describe the current membership.

"In some ways it’s a good job for the West that China and India can never agree about anything. Because if those two were really serious, Brics would have enormous influence," notes Jim O'Neill, former Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs.

"China and India are doing their best to avoid wanting to attack each other a lot of the time. Trying to get them to really co-operate on economic things is a never-ending challenge."

It was Mr O’Neill who, at the turn of the century, dreamt up the acronym "Bric" for four emerging economies he believed should be "brought into the centre of global policy making".

But the four letters would take on a life of their own, after the corresponding nations formed their own Bric group - later Brics, when South Africa joined. They would attempt to challenge the dominance of the G7: the world's seven largest "advanced" economies (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US).

It's not just India and China who have their differences. There is tension between two of the newest Brics members, Egypt and Ethiopia. And, despite talk of detente, Iran and Saudi Arabia have long been regional rivals.

"The idea that they’re all going to fundamentally agree on something of great substance is bonkers really," believes Mr O’Neill.

And while Russia, fuelled by anti-Western sentiment, talks about creating a "new world order", other Brics members, like India, are keen to retain good political and economic relations with the West.

In Kazan, Vladimir Putin's task will be to skim over the differences and paint a picture of unity, while showing the Russian public – and the international community – that his country is far from isolated.

Russia BRICS Summit
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends his meeting with President of the New Development Bank Dilma Rousseff on the sidelines of BRICS Summit at Kazan Kremlin in Kazan, Russia, Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. (Alexander Nemenov, Pool Photo via AP)
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