Horowitz: Iran’s Defenses Are Broken, Its Retaliatory Power Isn’t
- The U.S. is signaling possible military action against Iran, deploying major assets to the Middle East, while Tehran is vulnerable to airstrikes but retains strong retaliatory capabilities.
- Iran can still strike back asymmetrically, using thousands of short- and medium-range missiles, drones, and cruise missiles to target U.S. bases, ships, and regional allies despite weakened air defenses.
- Any U.S. strike risks wider regional escalation.
Iran is bracing for a potential attack as the United States deploys key military assets, including an air carrier and additional bombers, to the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump has threatened to strike the Islamic Republic over its bloody crackdown on anti-government protesters. If Trump authorizes military action, Tehran would be virtually powerless to stop an aerial attack, experts say.
But that does not mean Iran cannot retaliate against US military and commercial assets in the region, experts say, citing Tehran's formidable arsenal of advanced ballistic and low-flying cruise missiles as well as combat and suicide drones.
During the 12-day war last June, Israel hit Iran's military infrastructure, including missile-production centers. Israel's attack also weakened the ability of Iran, which has an aging air force, to fend off aerial assaults by targeting its radars and Russian-made S-300 air-defense systems.
Even then, Tehran was still able to fire hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel. Dozens of missiles, aimed mostly at military sites, penetrated Israel's formidable air defenses.
"In terms of purely defensive capabilities, Iran is practically naked," said Michael Horowitz, an independent defense expert based in Israel.
But Iran "still has a large arsenal of short and medium range missiles that can easily hit US bases in the Middle East, as well as cruise missiles and drones that it would likely use to try and target US ships," added Horowitz.
In June, Israel struck sites around Tehran, including the Parchin military complex, the Khojir military base, the Shahrud missile site, and a factory in the Shamsabad Industrial Zone.
The strikes were aimed at hindering Iran's production of medium-range ballistic missiles that threaten Israel and are "fairly potent," said Sascha Bruchmann, a military and security affairs analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Many of the medium-range ballistic missiles are "liquid-fueled and rely on infrastructure to be loaded, fueled, and launched," said Bruchmann. "The Israelis used this fact to find them and destroy many launchers during the war."
The number of Iranian launchers still operational is unclear.
Iran also possesses short-range ballistic missiles that are "often solid-fueled, much more flexible, and thus more difficult to detect before launch," added Bruchmann, estimating that Tehran has several thousand of the missiles.
Beyond its weapons, one of Iran's most potent tools is its ability to disrupt oil traffic in the Persian Gulf, a region that produces around 40 percent of the world's oil, experts say.
About one-fifth of the world's oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Iran has previously considered closing the route, a move that would disrupt global oil flows.
"The Islamic republic has long prepared a set of military assets meant to shut down this key maritime route. This would create an economic shock that Iran could exploit," said Horowitz.
U.S. Weighs Military Options
Trump threatened military strikes against Iran as the authorities killed thousands of people in a crackdown on mass protests that erupted in late December. Trump recently backed away, although he has not ruled out an attack.
Trump is weighing up a range of military options, according to US media reports. They include strikes on largely symbolic targets, decapitation strikes targeting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other leaders, or a sustained bombing campaign.
Any US military action against Iran is fraught with risks, experts say, and even a limited strike could provoke retaliation by Tehran and trigger a full-blown conflict that could drag in the entire region.
It is unclear if the end goal of possible US military action in Iran is regime change, to encourage defections in the armed forces and political elite, to impede the ability of the security forces to suppress street protests, or bring a weakened Tehran to the negotiating table.
A US aerial campaign alone, without a ground incursion, would not lead to regime change, experts say. A ground invasion of Iran, the largest and most populous country in the Middle East, is considered a nonstarter by many defense experts.
A protracted US air campaign is considered unlikely, experts say, citing Trump's reported desire for a limited and decisive attack. But even a month-long offensive would not guarantee the fall of the regime.
"A sustained US air campaign could severely degrade Iran's conventional military by ripping up command-and-control, and fixed infrastructure, but it is unlikely by itself to produce the collapse of Iran's security forces, which can disperse, hide, and shift to low-signature internal repression," said Horowitz.
"Airpower can punish and paralyze, but it would need a simultaneous political fracture on the ground, both a resumption in protests and divisions within the Iranian leadership, to really deliver a full collapse of Iran's security forces or regime," he added.
By Frud Bezhan via RF/ERL
Pressure Mounts on Iran as U.S. Warships Enter Region
- Iranian security forces have killed thousands during a violent suppression of protests sparked by inflation and economic collapse.
- The U.S. has deployed a carrier strike group to the region while keeping military options against Iran on the table.
- Iran’s currency has hit a record low amid sanctions, internet blackouts, and mounting international scrutiny.
A US aircraft carrier group arrived in the Middle East on January 27 as tensions mount over a possible strike against Iran after a brutal crackdown on protests that rights groups say killed thousands of people.
Amid the turmoil, the Iranian currency, the rial, fell to a record low against the dollar, trading at 1.5 million on January 27.
US President Donald Trump has said he "hopes" military action against Tehran won't be needed, but he has also sent an "armada" to the region while refusing to take the option of air strikes off of the table in response to the crackdown on mainly peaceful protesters who took to the streets in recent weeks to demand action to stop spiraling inflation and a sagging currency.
The US-based rights organization HRANA, whose figures RFE/RL has been regularly citing since the violent crackdown began in Iran earlier this month, says its confirmed death toll, including security forces, is now 6,126, while the number of fatalities still under investigation is 17,091.
Some estimates by officials quoted off the record by various media outlets run several times higher.
US President Trump told Axios in an interview on January 26 that the situation with Iran is "in flux" because he sent a "big armada" to the region, with a strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln now in Middle Eastern waters, according to US Central Command.
But, Trump added, he thinks Tehran genuinely wants to cut a deal.
"They want to make a deal. I know so. They called on numerous occasions. They want to talk," he was quoted as saying.
The protests began on December 28 in markets in the capital, Tehran, among shopkeepers angry over dismal economic conditions. The unrest quickly spread across the country and turned into demonstrations against authorities for deteriorating living standards and the suppression of freedoms.
The rial's drop against the dollar comes with the annual inflation rate at 44.6 percent, including an almost 90 percent year-on-year rise in food prices. Iran's economy has struggled for years under the pressure of international sanctions and the effects of the 12-day war with Israel last June.
Eyewitness accounts and verified reports from rights groups appear to show the violent crackdown peaked on January 8 and January 9, when security forces opened fire with live ammunition on demonstrators.
Amid a weeks-long Internet blackout, information about the extent of the violent suppression of the protests continues to trickle out.
Watchdog NetBlocks said in a daily report on January 26 that the blackout continues, though there were reports of some limited access to the Internet.
NetBlocks said that such gaps "are being tightened to limit circumvention while whitelisted regime accounts promote the Islamic Republic's narrative."
A spokesman for the Iranian government said on January 27 that the Internet was cut off "to preserve human lives," though they didn't explain what they meant by the comments.
Nonetheless, new images of the suppression continue to pop up online as Iranians try to show how vicious the crackdown was.
The Vahid Online channel published new images showing government forces directly firing at protesters in the city of Amol on the evening of January 9, contradicting claims by authorities that killings were carried out by "terrorists" and not state security agents.
In the images, officers in uniform armed with Kalashnikov rifles are seen aiming into the streets and firing.
By RFE/RL
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