Azerbaijan Moves to Defuse Tensions With Iran After Drone Strikes
- Azerbaijan has shifted from threats of retaliation to active diplomatic engagement with Iran.
- Baku fears wider instability, especially in Nakhchivan and among Iran’s large Azeri population.
- Higher energy prices may boost Azerbaijani revenues, even as security and inflation risks grow.
Diplomatic engagement has replaced aggressive rhetoric, as Azerbaijan strives to keep tensions with neighboring Iran from boiling over again.
In the immediate aftermath of Iranian drone strikes in the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan on March 5, officials in Baku adopted a bellicose stance, warning that further acts of aggression against Azerbaijan would result in “Iron Fist” retaliation. They also demanded that those responsible for the drone strikes be held accountable.
Over the last 10 days or so, however, Baku’s tone has softened considerably, and officials have kept open diplomatic channels of communication. On March 17, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov checked in with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi.
According to an Azerbaijani government statement, their phone conversation “emphasized that civilian objects should not be targeted during the ongoing war.” Bayramov also reiterated Azerbaijan’s support for a quick, negotiated end to the conflict, and reminded Araghchi about an Iranian pledge to carry out a full investigation into the March 5 drone attacks.
Several factors are encouraging Azerbaijan to pursue a de-escalation strategy. One, according to Zaur Shiriyev, a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, is Nakhchivan’s relatively isolated position vis-à-vis the Azerbaijani mainland. Writing in a Carnegie-published analysis on the impact of the war so far on the South Caucasus, Shiriyev noted that “air and land links [between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan] depend heavily on transit through Iran.” Any sustained disruption of those Iranian connections, then, could have serious economic ramifications for the exclave.
Baku’s desire for a quick end to the war is connected in part to concern about Iran’s potential fragmentation in the event of the total collapse of the Islamic Republic’s governing system. Ethnic Azeris number approximately 20 million in Iran, roughly a quarter of the overall population, and are primarily concentrated in northwestern areas of the country. The Islamic Republic’s demise would stand to destabilize Azeri-dominated areas, perhaps prompting a wave of refugees seeking relative safety in Azerbaijan. Or Baku could face pressure to intervene on behalf of Iranian Azeris, if they became embroiled in conflict with other ethnic groups in Iran, Shiriyev suggested.
“Regime survival could represent the least destabilizing outcome for Iranian Azerbaijanis,” Shiriyev wrote.
The energy crisis precipitated by the prolonged US-Israeli bombing campaign stands to benefit Azerbaijan. A prolonged spike in oil and gas prices could generate upwards of $7.5 billion in additional annual energy export revenue for Baku, Shiriyev estimated. At the same time, the disruption is expected to cause inflation in Azerbaijan and across Eurasia to skyrocket.
While Azerbaijani officials seem to be succeeding for now in keeping bilateral tensions in check, there is evidence that elements within the Iranian leadership are intent on destabilizing Azerbaijan.
The tech giant Meta, operator of Facebook and Instagram, recently announced that since the start of 2026, it had deleted over 700 accounts and three pages on the two social media platforms after determining they were operated by malicious actors “associated with Iran and targeting Azerbaijan,” according to a March 17 report published by the Azerbaijani government-connected news outlet Minval.
By Eurasianet
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