Are We Ready for the Zero-Emission Future?


Global commitments have been made to phase out internal combustion, but tough regulations and international buy-in are needed.

BY JIM MOTAVALLI JAN 7, 2021


METAMORWORKSGETTY IMAGES


In September, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued an executive order “requiring sales of all new passenger vehicles to be zero-emission by 2035.” The next month, New Jersey followed suit, with a climate change report recommending by that same date “a rapid and complete transition away from fossil-powered vehicles” to meet emission reduction goals.

The two states have international company. In the European Union, where passenger cars and vans are 15 percent of carbon emissions, it would be easier to report on the countries that are not intent on phasing out internal combustion. Consider Norway. Its 2017 Transport Plan says that sales of passenger cars and light vans are to be zero emission (meaning electric or fuel cell) by 2025—just a few years hence.

Norway is well on its way, with 400,000 registered electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles by last March—up from 3,347 in 2010. Last September, 60 percent of the passenger vehicles sold in Norway (which has some of the best incentives in the world) were electric; with hybrids included, the number was 89 percent.

Related Story

VW Will Turn a Greek Island into a Model EV Space

Other European countries with plans or proposals to ban gas cars lag well behind that penetration, but the commitments are nearly as ambitious: Great Britain (2030, with hybrids until 2035), Denmark (2030, with plug-in hybrids until 2035), Iceland (2030), Ireland (2030), Holland (2030), Sweden (2030), Slovenia (2030), Scotland (2032), France (2040) and Spain (2040).

In Asia, we’ve got plans with various levels of determination in China (researching a timetable), India (2030), Japan (2035), Singapore (2040), Taiwan (2040) and Sri Lanka (2040). Let’s not forget Israel, which wants to permit only natural gas and electric cars after 2030.

Is this it, then, for internal combustion? Is the engine of commerce and mobility for more than 100 years finally sputtering to a stop? Not so fast. We get a reality check from the cars actually selling at dealerships. According to Statista, 89 percent of the cars sold worldwide in 2019 were gas or diesel, and only eight percent were hybrid or battery electric. The same study said that battery electrics will account for only 18 percent of global sales by 2030, the very year many of these bans go into effect.



MCCAIGGETTY IMAGES

The public is, of course, still buying a lot of V8-powered SUVs. And the bans, on close examination, aren’t quite as formidable as they appear. They’re tentative and aspirational. California’s ban is an executive order that could be reversed by the next governor. Others are mere frameworks, subject to government review. According to the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), “Although some governments say their phase-out targets are an important signal pushing automakers toward cleaner vehicles, none has yet implemented enforceable legislation making the targets binding.”

Daniel Sperling, founding director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis, said that “a lot of it is posturing. As a practical matter, we aren’t seeing regulations or hard rules. Globally, it’s not possible that we’ll see 100 percent zero-emission vehicles by 2035, though it’s possible in some regions. There has to be a concerted effort, a true societal commitment.”

One of those regions of possibility is Sperling’s home state of California, which, he said, has invested “considerable resources in incentives and charging infrastructure, and considerable political capital and regulatory changes in such matters as streamlining permitting of charging installations and standardizing charging technology.”
Advertisement - Continue Reading Below


Related Story

ZETA Pushes for All-EV Sales in the U.S. by 2030

And as goes California, so goes the other states that follow its zero-emission rules, which are now, with the departure of the Trump Administration, unlikely to go away. But even in California, which accounts for half of all new EV registrations in the U.S., electric, hydrogen and hybrid vehicles accounted for only 13.4 percent of sales in the third quarter of 2019.

Nic Lutsey, program director at ICCT, says the phase-outs may lack teeth, but are a critical step in the transition. “Governments are developing regulations that will ensure higher EV availability for consumers, and at higher production volumes, which will mean affordable mainstream EVs across vehicle segments,” he said. The big-picture announcements “provide assurance to spur lots of other action, including charging infrastructure and utility-readiness investments through the grid, plus reinforcement of city and state policies.”

“There are substantial challenges to overcome between now and the mid-2030s.”

Maybe, but we may need to revise the timetables, says Sam Abuelsamid, principal analyst at Guidehouse Insights in Detroit. “I would say it’s not impossible to make the shift from internal combustion to EVs by the early 2030s, but there are a lot of challenges with the timing,” he said.

Among the hurdles Abuelsamid identifies are the need to reduce new car pricing, dramatically ramp up battery production to approximately 7,000 gigawatt-hours annually, increase production of the raw materials necessary to produce those batteries, and make the investments necessary to expand charging infrastructure (particularly public charging). “There are substantial challenges to overcome between now and the mid-2030s,” he said.

Norway is leading the fight for EVs in Europe. And Great Britain deserves some kudos for moving its goalposts forward, and for pledging $1.72 billion to building an EV infrastructure, $775 million for EV incentives, and $666 million to develop and mass-produce batteries.

Against this background of bold-sounding governmental commitments with weak enforcement provisions, we have automakers needing to plan ahead, since the average lead time for new models is four or five years. And at least some of them are stepping up.

The Volvo XC40 Recharge P8 AWD getting topped off

.
VOLVO

Volvo, for instance, says that by 2025 half of its cars will be battery EVs, and the rest hybrids of one form or another. The company plans to be carbon neutral across its whole value chain by 2040. “Volvo is aggressively moving toward an electrified future,” said company spokesman Jim Nichols. Volvo recently rolled out its fun-to-drive XC40 Recharge battery car in the U.S., though its high price tag and 208 miles of range might deter some buyers.

In an unexpected development, tradition-bound British automaker Bentley announced in November a “Beyond 100” campaign to celebrate its first century, with plug-in hybrid availability on every model by 2023, a battery electric in 2025, only cars with plugs by 2026, and only battery EVs by 2030. Bentley is part of the Volkswagen Group, which (having learned its diesel lesson) is now all-in on electrification.

General Motors says that climate change is real. “GM is on its way to an all-electric future, with a commitment to 30 new global electric vehicles by 2025,” the company said. “We are aggressively going after every aspect of what it takes to put everyone in an EV because we need millions of EVs on the road to make a meaningful impact toward building a zero-emissions future.”

Related Story

Tesla Delivered Just Shy of 500,000 Cars in 2020

Although some automakers have lagged, including Fiat Chrysler (whose U.S. pivot is to adding horsepower), most are making firm commitments to electrification. Ford has said it would spend more than $11 billion by 2022, when it will have 40 hybrid and battery cars in the lineup. Ford signed an agreement with the powerful California Air Resources Board to meet CARB’s framework of light cars and trucks in the 2021 to 2026 model years.

What does the public think about all of this? A 2019 AAA survey found40 million Americans ready to consider an EV for their next car, but 40 percent also said they don’t expect the majority of vehicles to be electric by 2029. EV range is increasing rapidly, as battery costs come down, but many consumers aren’t getting the updates. “Many consumers are not sure what to expect from an electric vehicle,” said a report summary.

Add to this the fact that EVs remain expensive, and leading EV supplier Tesla can no longer offer its customers the federal $7,500 income tax credit (which expires after 200,000 electric vehicles have been sold). Will the Biden administration increase EV subsidies? With a commitment to a clean energy economy by 2050, it will definitely try, but Congress may well balk. Biden’s climate plan aims for “rigorous new fuel economy standards aimed at ensuring 100 percent of new sales for light- and medium-duty vehicles will be electrified.” To make that happen, as Sperling pointed out, a true bipartisan societal commitment is needed.

Iraq issues arrest warrant for Trump over killing of Iran general Soleimani

By Staff The Associated Press
Posted January 7, 2021 

WATCH: One year since U.S. assassinated Iran general Qasem Soleiman

An arrest warrant was issued Thursday for outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump in connection with the killing of an Iranian general and a powerful Iraqi militia leader last year, Iraq’s judiciary said.

The warrant was issued by a judge in Baghdad’s investigative court tasked with probing the Washington-directed drone strike that killed Gen. Qassim Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the court’s media office said. They were killed outside the capital’s airport last January.

Al-Muhandis was the deputy leader of the state-sanctioned Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella group composed of an array of militias, including Iran-backed groups, formed to fight the Islamic State group.

Soleimani headed the expeditionary Quds force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The arrest warrant was for a charge of premeditated murder, which carries the death penalty on conviction. It is unlikely to be carried out but symbolic in the waning days of Trump’s presidency.

The decision to issue the warrant “was made after the judge recorded the statements of the claimants from the family of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis,” according to a statement from the Supreme Judicial Council. The investigation into the killings is ongoing, the court said.
2:53Flight PS752: Remembering the victims of the Iran plane crashFlight PS752: Remembering the victims of the Iran plane crash

The killings sparked a diplomatic crisis and strained U.S.-Iraq ties, drawing the ire of Shiite political lawmakers who passed a non-binding resolution to pressure the government to oust foreign troops from the country.

Iran-backed groups have since stepped up attacks against the American presence in Iraq, leading to threats by Washington to shutter its Baghdad diplomatic mission.

 

British Gas staff begin strike over ‘fire and rehire’ plans

By Ashleigh Webber on 7 Jan 2021 in Employee relations, Industrial action / strikes, Latest News, Trade unions

Damian Czajka / Shutterstock.com

British Gas staff have begun a five-day national strike over changes to their terms and conditions.

The GMB Union has accused the energy firm and its parent company Centrica of threatening to “fire and rehire” British Gas engineers who did not agree to new terms and conditions, described as “draconian” by the union.

Changing contractual terms

MPs join unions in urging British Gas/Centrica to end fire-rehire threat

Centrica to axe 5,000 jobs

About 20,000 engineers were asked to accept the new terms. Centrica said more than 83% of employees had so far agreed to the changes, which include working an additional three hours per week in line with the rest of their colleagues and starting their working day in the customer’s home, rather than their own home.

The strike began shortly after midnight this morning (Thursday).

Centrica said the union had a “very weak mandate” for strike action, with only 52% of the eligible GMB membership voting in its favour.

The union said 89% of those who took part in the ballot voted to strike.

A Centrica spokesperson said: “We’ve done everything we can with the GMB to avoid industrial action. Whilst we’ve made great progress with our other unions, sadly the GMB leadership seems intent on causing disruption to customers during the coldest weekend of the year, amid a global health crisis and in the middle of a national lockdown.

“Over 83% of our workforce have already accepted our new terms, in which base pay and pensions are protected, including a significant majority of GMB members. This shows most of our people understand that our business needs to change because customer needs are changing.”

The spokesperson added that the change were being made to support jobs in the long term, and that by organising a strike the union was “fighting against modernisation”.

GMB national secretary Justin Bowden said: “British Gas boss Chris O’Shea’s attempts to bully workers into accepting cuts to their pay and terms and conditions has provoked this inevitable outcome – massive disruption to customers in the depths of winter and a stain on the reputation of an historic company and brand.

“GMB is calling on the public to ask why British Gas CEO Mr O’Shea is provoking an engineers’ strike with ‘fire and rehire’ pay cuts, in the depths of winter.

“This is against the backdrop of the company reporting operating profits of £901m in the latest available annual accounts.”

Atmospheric Carbon Levels to Hit Unwelcome 2021 Milestone

Jessica Shankleman, Bloomberg News

HEBEI, CHINA - NOVEMBER 19: Smoke billows from smokestacks and a coal fired generator at a steel factory on November 19, 2015 in the industrial province of Hebei, China. China's government has set 2030 as a deadline for the country to reach its peak for emissions of carbon dioxide, what scientists and environmentalists cite as the primary cause of climate change. At an upcoming conference in Paris, the governments of 196 countries will meet to set targets on reducing carbon emissions in an attempt to forge a new global agreement on climate change. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images) Photographer: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images AsiaPac , Photographer: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images AsiaPac

(Bloomberg) -- Global atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will be 50% higher this year than before the start of the Industrial Revolution, according to forecasts that show the rapid pace at which humans are polluting the atmosphere.

It took more than 200 years for the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere to grow 25% by the end of the 1980s. The majority of the damage has been wrought in the last 30 years as the pace of deforestation and burning of fossil fuels picked up rapidly.

The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is set to exceed 417 parts per million for several weeks this year, the U.K.’s Met Office said in a report released on Friday. CO2 concentrations vary throughout the year, peaking in May.

While the pandemic caused a sharp drop in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020, CO2 hangs around in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. That means any emissions pumped into the air will have an effect for generations.

Measurements are collected at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, where David Keeling first took records in 1958 and subsequently lent his name to the Keeling curve which shows the impact of human activity on climate change.

The Met Office forecasts that the rise in CO2 will also be slightly smaller in 2021 because of the La Nina weather factor, which encourages tropical forests to grow and soak up more emissions.

“Reversing this trend and slowing the atmospheric CO2 rise will need global emissions to reduce,” said Professor Richard Betts, who leads the production of the Met Office’s annual CO2 forecast.

“Bringing them to a halt will need global emissions to be brought down to net zero. This needs to happen within about the next 30 years if global warming is to be limited to 1.5°C,” he said.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

Meat Atlas: It's time to rethink what we eat

Meat has become cheap to buy in the supermarket. But that comes at a cost to the environment and human health.



Germany is a leading EU pork producer

"Industrial meat production is not only responsible for precarious working conditions, it also pushes people off their land, leads to deforestation, biodiversity loss and the use of pesticides — and is also one of the main drivers of the climate crisis."

Such were the words of Barbara Unmüssig of green think tank, the Heinrich Böll Foundation, at the Berlin presentation of the so-called "Meat Atlas 2021."

Across 50 pages, the atlas — which is collaboratively published by the foundation, Friends of the Earth Germany (BUND) and the international monthly newspaper Le Monde diplomatique — outlines trends and the implications of global meat production on both human and planetary health.

It highlights, for example, how the over-use of antibiotics in intensive animal farming is leading to increasingly resistant germs, thereby threatening the effectiveness of drugs used for humans,


Similarly, the clearing of forests for animal feed is held up as a threat to human health. As habitat loss brings animals and humans into closer proximity with one another, viruses can be transmitted more easily. This, in turn, can lead to new pandemics.

In a survey for the report, young people between the ages of 15 and 29 were asked about their thoughts on meat. The majority said they rejected the meat industry in its current form.
Germany plays leading role in the meat industry

Olaf Bandt, chairman of BUND, says policymakers must take account of society's desire to restructure the sector. "This requires far-reaching political realignment of agricultural policy," he said. "But there can be no agricultural transition without a food transition."

Bandt describes Germany as a key player in the production of pork and milk, with a 20% share of the EU market.

"Huge amounts of meat are exported," he said, adding that this reliance on international marekts is having a detrimental effect on the environment, livestock and farms. "More and more animals live on ever fewer farms, further exacerbating the pollution of groundwater in those regions."


Watch video 01:53 The world’s first clean chicken

Meat devours rainforest

Global population and economic growth are the drivers behind increasing demand for meat. In 1960, the planet was home to just 3 billion people and, according to the report, meat consumption at that time was around 70 million metric tons. That equated to an annual per capita global average of 23 kilograms.

By 2018, however, when the ppopulation had grown to 7.6 billion people, meat consumption had risen seven-fold to around 350 million metric tons — or a global average of 46 kilograms per person annually.


Listen to audio 38:36 S3E4: Hunting for sustainable meat

A key problem with this trend is that meat production requires vast areas of land. According to the German Environment Agency (UBA), the country's central environment authority , 71% of global arable land is currently used for livestock feed. That is four times the amount required for direct food growth (18%) or other raw materials such as cotton (7%) and energy crops like corn for biogas (4%).

As global demand for meat continues to grow, so does the pressure on available arable land. As a result, huge areas of forest in countries such as Brazil are being lost to create land on which to grow animal fodder.

In order to feed the world's population and stop rainforests from being cleared, while simultaneously designating land for reforestation, experts are calling for a dietary rethink: less meat and more plant-based foods which require much smaller areas.

In a report on the health of the planet published last year, leading global scientists such as Johan Rockström, Director at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) suggested dietary changes that would equate to an average of 16 kilograms of meat and 33 kilograms of dairy products per person per year. Current meat consumption in North and South America as well as in Europe can be as much as seven times that amount.
The problem with pesticides

Besides revealing the power and global impact of the international meat industry, authors of the "Meat Atlas" also illustrate links to the global chemical industry. They write that dangerous and sometimes banned pesticides are exported by large chemical companies. Among the producers and exporters of such chemicals are European players, Bayer Crop Science, BASF, and Syngenta, as well as US companies Corteva and FMS.


According to Unmüssig, the use of such pesticides threatens thousands of lives, which is why, Bandt says the "German government must do everything it can to ensure that German companies no longer export toxins that have been banned in the EU."

Unmüssig warns that the planned EU-Mercosur agreement would exacerbate the use of dangerous substances. "Dismantling tariffs would lead to more pesticides being delivered to Latin America and more rainforest would be cleared for soy plantations and meat production."

The experts conclude that establishing a way to farm animals in a cruelty-free way that doesn't harm the climate or the environment, requires a far-reaching shift in agricultural policy as well a rethink in consumption and production.

"As yet, we have not seen the start of any real meat transition," Unmüssig said.

This article was adapted from German.

Watch video 03:02 Nutrition and climate change – the food of the future

DW RECOMMENDS

Veggie discs and bloody beets: Future of meat

Demand for meat-free foods is up — 23% in the US last year alone, according to The Good Food Institute. But can plant-based alternatives replace classic burgers and sausages, and are they really better for the climate?

How coronavirus might change farming

The COVID-19 shutdowns severely disrupted many of our vital sectors – not least agriculture. From cracking down on factory farming to a rise in urban gardening, here's how the pandemic could transform our food chain.

Beasts of burden - Antagonism and Practical ... - Libcom.org

Mar 26, 2017 — Beasts of burden - Antagonism and Practical History. An attempt to rethink the separation between animal liberationist and communist politics. This is a text which, we hope, faces in two directions.

Too Much Meat During Ice Age Winters Gave Rise to Dogs, New Research Suggests

George Dvorsky

A western gray wolf.

A western gray wolf. Image: Jacob W. Frank (AP)

Two prevailing theories exist about the origin of domesticated dogs. One proposes that prehistoric humans used early dogs as hunting partners, and the other says that wolves were attracted to our garbage piles. New research suggests both theories are wrong and that the real reason has to do with our limited capacity to digest protein.

Dogs were domesticated from wild wolves during the last ice age between 14,000 and 29,000 years ago, and they were the first animals to be domesticated by humans. That humans and wolves should form a collaborative relationship is an odd result, given that both species are pack hunters who often target the same prey.

“The domestication of dogs has increased the success of both species to the point that dogs are now the most numerous carnivore on the planet,” wrote the authors of a new study published today in Scientific Reports. “How this mutually beneficial relationship emerged, and specifically how the potentially fierce competition between these two carnivores was ameliorated, needs to be explained.”

Indeed, given this context, it’s not immediately obvious why humans would want to keep wolves around. Moreover, the two prevailing theories about the origin of dogs—either as partners used for hunting or as self-domesticated animals attracted to our garbage—aren’t very convincing. Wolves, even when tamed, would’ve made for awful hunting partners, as they lacked the collaborative and advanced communication skills found in domesticated dogs. And sure, wild wolves were probably attracted to human scraps, but this would’ve required some unlikely interactions between humans and wolves.

“In our opinion, the self-domestication in this way is not fully explained,” Maria Lahtinen, a chemist and archaeologist at the Finnish Food Authority in Finland and the first author of the new study, said in an email. “Hunter-gatherers do not necessarily leave waste in the same place over and over again. And why would they tolerate a dangerous carnivore group in their close surroundings? Humans tend to kill their competitors and other carnivores.”

Lahtinen and her colleagues say there’s a more likely reason for the domestication of dogs, and it has to do with an abundance of protein during the harsh ice age winters, which subsequently reduced competition between the two species. This in turn allowed humans and incipient dogs to live in symbiotic harmony, paving the way for the ongoing evolution of both species.

The researchers have “introduced a really interesting hypothesis that seeks to address the long-debated mechanism by which early dog domestication occurred,” James Cole, an archaeologist at the University of Brighton who’s not involved with the new study, wrote in an email. “The idea is that human populations and wolves could have lived alongside each other during the harsh climatic conditions [of the last ice age] because human populations would have produced enough protein, through hunting activities, to keep both populations fed during the harsh winter months.”

Seems hard to believe, but humans likely had more food during ice age winters than they could handle. This is due to our inability to subsist exclusively on lean protein for months at a time—something wolves have no issues with. For humans, excessive consumption of protein can lead to hyperinsulinemia (insulin resistance), hyperammonia (excess ammonia in blood), diarrhea, and in some extreme cases even death, according to the authors. To overcome this biological limitation, Pleistocene hunters adapted their diets during the winter months, targeting animal parts rich in fat, grease, and oils, such as lower limbs, organs, and the brain. And in fact, “there is evidence for such processing behavior during the Upper Palaeolithic,” according to the paper.


Consequently, wolves and humans were able to “share their game without competition in cold environments,” said Lahtinen. This in turn made it possible for humans to keep wolves as pets.

“Therefore, in the short term over the critical winter months, wolves and humans would not have been in competition over resources and may have mutually benefited from each other’s companionship,” wrote the authors. “This would have been critical in keeping the first proto-dogs for years and generations.”

A 7-week-old Mexican gray wolf puppy. Image: Jeff Roberson (AP)

It’s very possible, said Lahtinen, that the earliest dogs were wolf pups. Hunter-gatherers, she said, “do take pets in most cultures, and humans tend to find young animals cute,” so it would “not be a surprise if this would have happened.”

So dogs exist because wolf pups were cute and we had plenty of leftovers? Seems a legit theory, if you ask me.

Only later, due to traits introduced by artificial selection, were dogs used for hunting, guarding, pulling sleds, and so on, according to the researchers. This theory may also explain the complexity of early dog domestication, which appears to have occurred in Eurasia at multiple times, with dogs continuing to interbreed with wild wolves. The new theory may also explain why the domestication of dogs appears to have occurred in arctic and subarctic regions.

As for the summer months, that wasn’t as crucial for humans, given the relative abundance of food alternatives. During the critical winter months, however, “hunter-gatherers tend to give up their pets if there is a need to give up resources from humans,” said Lahtinen.

Importantly, Lahtinen and her colleagues did not pull this theory from thin air. To reach this conclusion, the team performed energy content calculations to estimate the amount of energy that would be left over from prey animals also hunted by wolves, such as deer, moose, and horses. The authors reasoned that, if humans and wolves were having to compete for these resources, there would be little to no cooperation between the two species. But their calculations showed that, aside from animals like weasels, all animals preyed upon by humans would have provided more lean protein than required.

“Therefore, the early domesticated wolves could have survived living alongside human populations by consuming the excess protein from hunting that humans could not,” explained Cole. “By having enough food for both populations, the competitive niche between the species is eliminated, thereby paving the way to domestication and the benefits of such a relationship to the two species.”

Cole described it as a “really intriguing hypothesis” because it provides a “mechanism that can explain the domestication of the wolf across a wide geographic and temporal range,” and it does so by “explaining how two carnivorous species could overcome the competition...under harsh climatic conditions.” Looking ahead, Cole said a similar approach would be useful for studying the interactions of humans and other species on this planet over time.

As a relevant aside, Cole is the author of a fascinating Scientific Reports paper published in 2017 arguing that ancient humans didn’t turn to cannibalism for nutrition. Using an approach similar to the one taken in the Lahtinen paper, Cole showed that human flesh simply doesn’t pack the same amount of calories as wild animals, and cannibalism wouldn’t have been worth all the trouble.

Archaeologists Uncover Disturbing Amount of Plastic Waste at Iron Age Site

George Dvorsky




Godzilla-themed thermos wrapper: One of over 2,000 waste items found at the Castell Henllys site.Image: H. Mytum et al., 2021/Antiquity

One by one, the archaeologists stumbled upon pieces of junk. Using techniques typically reserved for documenting stone tools and bones, the team recorded such items as plastic spoons, eye glasses, bottle caps, straws, mobile phone batteries, paint can lids, candy wrappers, and plastic wrap. By the time the experiment was over, the archaeologists had uncovered nearly 3,000 items, the vast majority of them made of plastic.

That plastic would be found at the site, a former hillfort in Wales, was not a surprise. In fact, it was expected, but not to this degree.

Since the 1980s, two replica Iron Age roundhouses existed on this spot, matching the ones that once stood at the Castell Henllys Iron Age fort during the late first millennium BCE.

The two replica roundhouses at Castell Henllys.Image: H. Mytum et al., 2021/Antiquity

Most of the visitors who came to the site were children out on field trips, the legacy of which is only now being understood. As the new Antiquity paper shows, plastics have a habit of sticking around—including in heritage sites that existed long before these synthetic materials were invented. It’s yet another sign that we’ve entered into the Anthropocene, a period in which we’re remaking the planet in our image.

The replica roundhouses at Castell Henllys served two different purposes. The first one, named Cookhouse, was set up like an actual Iron Age roundhouse, while the second one, called Earthwatch, was configured like a classroom, where students sat on benches to learn and eat their snacks.

Plastic utensils.Image: H. Mytum et al., 2021/Antiquity

Pembrokeshire Coast National Park, which manages the site, recently decided to dismantle the roundhouses due to health and safety concerns. Prior to building new structures, however, archaeologists thought it wise to excavate the site. It would serve as a good opportunity to study decay processes, to determine which human activities result in leftover waste, and how replicated structures might affect the integrity of prehistoric structures located at the same site. Here, the two replica roundhouses were literally built on the same spot as the real ones that existed well over 2,000 years ago. As the authors wrote in their study, “we anticipated that the artefact assemblages and distributions at Castell Henllys could act as valuable tests for correlating accidental discard with activity patterns.”

This turned out to be the case, but the quantity of waste seen at the site exceeded their expectations.

“We often find a small amount of recent debris when beginning an excavation, or if we find a deliberate dump, but never like this within a heritage or occupation site building,” Harold Mytum, an archaeologist at the University of Liverpool and the first author of the new paper, explained in an email.

Fragments of candy wrappers.Image: H. Mytum et al., 2021/Antiquity

This is not to say the heritage site was managed poorly. The roundhouses were cleaned regularly to maintain the look and feel of a prehistoric Iron Age setting. But as the new research shows, a surprising amount of litter managed to creep its way into the soil, leading to the discovery of so many items. Needless to say, the vast majority of the recovered items were found in Earthwatch, where the students ate their snacks. Most of the items were small and fragmentary in nature, such as torn packages, which explains why not all of the garbage was collected.

Itemized list of items found in the two roundhouses.Image: H. Mytum et al., 2021/Antiquity

“Children’s pack-ups [lunch packs] can damage the planet—they contain a lot of plastic and items get dropped and lost,” said Mytum. “Also, candy wrappers are plasticised and are another environmental threat.”

Mobile phone battery and camera eyepiece. Image: H. Mytum et al., 2021/Antiquity

Needless to say, the discovery of all this plastic, while certainly a part of the experiment, forced the archaeologists to tweak their approach. The scientists had been recording all the finds, but they had to adjust their resources “to do the evidence justice,” said Mytum. That said, it did not affect the archaeologists’ ability to examine how the buildings had decayed over the decades and to the document the distinct signatures left by our modern civilization.

“Indeed, it revealed how artefacts get incorporated into the flooring and also where they were densest inside the houses,” Mytum explained. “Prehistoric houses have fewer finds, but we can think about how activities leave their traces in the archaeology.”

Moving forward, Mytum and his colleagues will continue to work with Pembrokeshire Coast National Park to educate the public on these matters and to find more effective ways of keeping these important spaces clean.

But it won’t be easy.

“Even rural, well-managed locations can have a significant build-up of plastics in the soil,” said Mytum. “The Plastic Age—an indicator of the Anthropocene—has indeed come not only to the oceans of the Blue Planet, but also to its soils. Reducing use of plastics is essential—this debris was a by-product of our lifestyles even in a place where any obviously modern materials, such as plastic litter, is cleared away to avoid affecting the heritage visitor experience.”

To which he added: “If it is this bad here, it is a sign that our lifestyle needs rethinking.”

George Dvorsky  is a senior staff reporter at Gizmodo.