Which shocks pose the biggest risks to global food systems?
University of Oxford
Oxford study develops model to help countries identify vulnerabilities and outline measures to help strengthen resilience against food crises.
Global food systems are fragile – recent shocks such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have raised prices and exacerbated food insecurity. Governments are increasingly trying to shield themselves from future food crises, whether caused by conflict, climate shocks, disruptions to global trade or failed harvests.
But new Oxford-led research suggests many countries may be focusing on the wrong kind of resilience. The findings challenge food-security strategies that focus mainly on increasing domestic food production while overlooking their dependence on shocks to production abroad and energy supplies. The conclusions are particularly relevant for countries such as the UK, where recent debates over food security have focused on improving self-sufficiency.
The analysis, Assessing the Resilience of Global Grain Supplies to Compound Climatic and Non-Climatic Shocks, found that spikes in energy and fertiliser prices, such as those caused by the wars in Ukraine and Iran, can rapidly spread through global food systems because modern agriculture depends heavily on fuel, fertiliser and transport. Export bans and transport-related disruptions also caused severe regional impacts.
Countries reliant on a narrow group of suppliers and holding low grain reserves were often hit hardest during severe global shocks. Extreme weather and poor harvests pushed food prices up by as much as 50 to 100 percent in some countries, depending on how exposed and diversified their food systems were. By contrast, countries with more diverse suppliers and flexible trade networks were better able to switch suppliers and cushion the impact of crop failures.
Jasper Verschuur, lead author and Research Associate at the Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, said: 'No country can build a fortress against global food shocks. And producing all food within your own border is unfeasible for many countries, and leaves them exposed to the vagaries of their weather. Countries with diverse suppliers, reserves and more flexible trade networks are often far better placed when crises hit'.
The study highlights the importance on stress-testing the global food system and has developed a model which allows multiple simultaneous shocks to be analysed. In the most severe compound-shock scenarios, where poor harvests collided with wars, trade disruption and energy shocks, almost every country in the world experienced food-security losses simultaneously, though the impacts were distributed unevenly.
Professor Jim Hall, Director of the Oxford Martin Systemic Resilience Initiative at the University of Oxford, said: 'The real danger comes when shocks compound. A poor harvest, war or spike in fertiliser prices can now ripple rapidly through global trade networks and raise food prices far beyond the countries where the disruption began. What matters is not just how much food a country produces, but how prepared it is for instability'.
Key findings
- Global trade in food is essential to ensure global food security, and the food system needs to be stress tested to ensure it is resilient.
- This study has developed a modelling approach which can be a useful tool to locate countries’ food system strengths and vulnerabilities, and identify strategies to increase resilience.
- Energy and fertiliser price shocks often caused broader global impacts than direct trade disruptions because they affected producers worldwide simultaneously.
- Extreme weather and poor harvests alone shifted global food prices by 10 to 15 percent but some countries experienced domestic food-price shocks of up to 50 to 100 percent.
- Countries with diversified supply networks and bigger food reserves were often more resilient during moderate shocks whereas countries dependent on concentrated suppliers and low reserves were disproportionately affected during severe crises.
- In the worst compound-shock scenarios, almost every country experienced food-security losses simultaneously although not equally.
Notes to editors
The study, Assessing the Resilience of Global Grain Supplies to Compound Climatic and Non-Climatic Shocks, is published in PLOS Climate.
Authors and affiliations
- Jasper Verschuur — Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, UK; Delft University of Technology, Netherlands
- Anna Murgatroyd — Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, UK; Newcastle University, UK
- Yiorgos Vittis — International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
- Aline Mosnier — Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Paris, France
- Michael Obersteiner — Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, UK; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
- H. Charles J. Godfray — Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, UK
- Jim W. Hall — Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, UK
The analysis used a newly developed global trade model covering 177 countries and four major staple crops: wheat, maize, rice and soybean. It tested how climate-related crop failures interact with export bans, trade disruption and energy price shocks.
The scenarios modelled were designed to test plausible global stress conditions rather than predict a specific future crisis. The analysis did not fully capture speculative trading, panic buying or emergency policy interventions, meaning some real-world price spikes could potentially become even more severe.
Paper link:
https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000825
Media enquiries
Sara Davis
Communications and Media Manager
Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
sara.davis@oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk
About The Environmental Change Institute:
The Environmental Change Institute (ECI) conducts world-class, interdisciplinary research across eight core programmes: Climate, Energy, Ecosystems and Biodiversity, Infrastructure, Food Systems, Global Finance and Economy, Environment and Health, and Land, Society and Governance.
About The Oxford Martin Systemic Resilience Initiative:
The Oxford Martin Systemic Resilience Initiative aims to advance practical solutions to manage shocks with the potential for major and prolonged economic disruption, severe human or economic impacts, and contagion. It brings together academics specialising in biophysical modelling, risk analysis, transboundary resources and infrastructure, development, disaster preparedness and economics to reflect the high complexity and interdependencies of the systems involved.
About the University of Oxford
Oxford University has been placed number 1 in the Times Higher Education World University Rankings for a record-breaking tenth year running, and number 4 in the QS World Rankings 2026. At the heart of this success are the twin-pillars of our ground-breaking research and innovation and our distinctive educational offer.
Oxford is world-famous for research and teaching excellence and home to some of the most talented people from across the globe. Our work helps the lives of millions, solving real-world problems through a huge network of partnerships and collaborations. The breadth and interdisciplinary nature of our research alongside our personalised approach to teaching sparks imaginative and inventive insights and solutions.
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Journal
PLOS Climate
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