And while we are speaking of polls the UBC Election Stockmarket Poll did amazingly well showing that a real marketplace in votes could replace Bay Street. Or was it Bay Street could marketize voting. If so you would not lose money betting on SES.
How well did we do? ESM vs. Pollsters (Popular Vote Predictions) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | CPC | NDP | BLQ | OTR | Absolute Error | |
1. SES Research (Jan. 22) | 30.1 | 36.4 | 17.4 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 0.4 |
2. UBC ESM (Jan. 22) | 28.1 | 37.6 | 17.8 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 4.2 |
3. Strategic Counsel (Jan. 22) | 27 | 37 | 19 | 11 | 6 | 6.3 |
4. Ekos (Jan. 20) | 26.9 | 37.1 | 19.5 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 8.1 |
5. Ipsos-Reid (Jan. 22) | 27 | 38 | 19 | 12 | 4 | 9.6 |
How well did we do? ESM vs. Other Seat Projections | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | CPC | NDP | BLQ | OTR | Absolute Error | |
1. Milton Chan (electionprediction.org) | 104 | 118 | 29 | 56 | 1 | 12.0 |
2. UBC ESM | 95.5 | 125.2 | 32.6 | 53.4 | 1.2 | 15.0 |
3. Gregory Morrow (democraticspace.com) | 94 | 128 | 29 | 56 | 1 | 18.0 |
4. SES Research | 84 | 134 | 34 | 55 | 1 | 36.0 |
5. Laurier Institute (LISPOP) | 78 | 140 | 33 | 56 | 1 | 50.0 |
6. Jordan O'Brien (jord.ca) | 72 | 135 | 38 | 62 | 1 | 62.0 |
7. Strategic Counsel | 56 | 149 | 41 | 61 | 1 | 94.0 |
8. EKOS (Jan 20) | 53 | 151 | 41 | 62 | 1 | 100.0 |
9. Ipsos-Reid (Jan 21) | 46 | 157 | 42 | 62 | 1 | 114.0 |
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Canada
Federal Election
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Canadian Election