Back to the future: 2020s to echo roaring 20s or inflationary 70s?

By Dhara Ranasinghe

A screen displays a chart that tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the floor at the NYSE in New York

LONDON (Reuters) -The 2020s have only just begun but there is already a rush to draw parallels with the past, prompted by a belief that COVID-19 will mark a turning point for the world economy and financial markets.

For some, a post-pandemic economic boom accompanied with optimism about the future echoes the 1920s. Others reckon this decade is beginning to feel like the 1970s, as dormant inflation awakens.

Whatever path the decade takes will of course matter for the trajectory of stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.

"Changes, shifts and dynamics of narratives matter in the formation of long-term expectations and ultimately (market)prices," said Amundi CIO Pascal Blanque.

Here's a look at which decade the 2020s could resemble.

1. 1920s

In the 1920s, technological and scientific advances led to mass production of goods and the electrification of America, alongside booming stock markets and wealth.

Fast forward to the 2020s and the global economy is expected to grow 6% this year, a rate not seen since the 1970s. Stocks are near record highs, and tech valuations at their highest since the late 1990s dotcom peak. COVID-19 appears to be a catalyst for technological change, spurring digital adoption.

No wonder parallels are drawn with the "Roaring Twenties".

The 1920s ended with a stock market slump and economic depression, but economists believe policymakers have heeded lessons from the past and are unlikely to turn off the money taps too fast.

"A lot will come down to the extent to which monetary and fiscal stimulus translates into real productivity and improvement in structural growth rates," said Kiran Ganesh, head of multi asset, UBS Global Wealth Management

Reuters/CARLO ALLEGRI FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York

"Then we are in a roaring 20s scenario, but if the investment ends up wasted we are going back to the 2010s ...when it proved very hard to generate growth."

2. 1930s

The chances that the 2020s revisit the 1930s -- when households struggled to recover from a downturn, birth rates fell and inequality fuelled populism -- is a possibility but is not considered the most likely.

Figures quoted by Oxfam show the world's billionaires became $3.9 trillion richer between March and December 2020 even as economies shrank and tens of millions of workers lost jobs.

There are signs governments are trying to narrow yawning disparities.

The world's richest economies back a minimum global corporate tax rate of at least 15%. A $1.8 trillion American Families Plan is expected to lift more than 5 million children out of poverty.

But birth rates are low. The U.S. fertility rate fell and remained below 2.5 in the 1930s. Today, that rate is at record lows around 1.6, below the roughly 2.1 replacement level.

China had a fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman in 2020, on par with ageing societies Japan and Italy. A COVID-led baby bust could further pressure public finances.

3. 1970s

If inflation returns after a long absence, surely the 1970s -- when oil prices soared and U.S. inflation hit double digits -- is a better fit?

Fans of this scenario argue that hefty fiscal stimulus will give inflation in major economies a long-needed boost. BofA estimates, for example, that the U.S. government will spend $879 million every hour in 2021.

Low wage pressure from Asia is also receding as ageing populations squeeze the supply of workers, boosting wages in developed economies.

Bond investors need to be wary if inflation roars back, as do central banks which have not experienced inflationary pressures for decades.

"Many people think we are in the 1930s but I think we will wake up somewhere in the 70s," said Amundi's Blanque.

4. 1980s or even 2010s

Many economists agree the 2020s will mark a break with the "small government" 1980s as public spending increases are sustained to aid the post-virus recovery.

They also think a rerun of the last decade, the 2010s, is unlikely, as governments ditch austerity and embrace a bigger role for the state in the economy.

This all suggests a departure from the 1980s-style neo-liberal policies pursued by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, an ideology that has dominated market thinking ever since and shaped the decade after the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Agreement on a minimum global tax rate is evidence of a possible shift, although it is still early days.

UniCredit chief economist Erik Nielsen said greater state involvement in the economy, whether via direct ownership, regulation or taxation, was a risk to growth but the details of any intervention mattered.

"One thing is clear, however: It'll lead to massive changes in relative growth between sectors and hence in investment opportunities," he said.

(Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; Additional reporting and graphics by Sujata Rao and Thyagaraju Adinarayan; Editing by Tommy Wilkes and Jane Merriman)

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Residential schools tried to erase my family—but we wouldn’t let them

Andrea Landry

Today's Parent , 3 days ago

When the news broke that 215 babies were buried on the ancestral lands of the Tk’emlúps te Secwépemc First Nation, on the grounds of a former residential school, a lot of disturbing memories came up for my family. My auntie called me to debrief, sharing her own stories of how these torturous schools and their lasting trauma have become embedded in our own bloodline.

© Used with permission of / © St. Joseph Communications. 

Photo: Courtesy of Andrea Landry.

Without a doubt, every Indigenous family on Turtle Island (North America) has had a family member or ancestor attend these schools. Think about that.

With the schools comes the trauma, the abuse, the intergenerational impacts, and the grief.

Residential schools changed our family in a devastating way. As I listened to my auntie speak, I remembered my late mother’s pain, and how often that colonially-caused pain got in the way—and interfered with—my own childhood. It was because of those schools: Family members who were taken to residential schools then brought those toxic behaviours, learned from priests and nuns, into our own family. The cycle continued. Triggered by this news, childhood memories came back to me. I remembered being six years old, and listening to my mom’s gruesome stories. She would sob, in agony, telling me what had happened to her as a child, due to the intergenerational impacts of those so-called schools.

That was my first time—but definitely not my last time—experiencing vicarious trauma. I was frequently a witness to my mother’s turmoil, and even became a target for the projections of her pain. Physical, emotional, and verbal abuse became the norm as my mom did the best she could with the resources and tools she had at the time to navigate through her trauma—trauma that had been caused by colonialism.

I felt so much anger towards those schools as a kid. I felt jealousy towards my non-Indigenous peers whose families had the luxury of not being touched by this traumatic history. I remember arguing with kids on the playground about why my people were the way they were.

I craved a healthy, fully healed family. It was our mothers and aunties—those born in the 1960s and ’70s—who took the first steps in addressing the pain caused by their family members who’d been abused at residential schools. They realized it was time, and they began funnelling it toward healing.

Over the phone, my auntie told me, for the first time, about what happened to her. (She does not want to share the details with everyone, however.) “When I first went to treatment in the ’80’s, I started my healing path from the sexual abuse that happened in my life,” she said. “I started to heal from the intergenerational impacts from residential schools.”

“You are one of the original cycle-breakers,” I told her. She credits her grandmother—my great-grandmother—for this.

© Provided by Today's Parent two women with their arms over each other's shoulders
Photo: The author’s great-grandmother, at left. Courtesy of Andrea Landry.

“She was very gentle and loving. I remember going in the bush with her when I was little, and she practiced all of our teachings,” she told me. “She showed me how to put tobacco down when we prayed, how to set and check her nets, and how to drink the rainwater after a thunderstorm to get the medicine that comes with that.”

“That’s what carried me through all of that pain and trauma—that strong sense of being connected to our people. I pray to my grandmother.” As I listened to my auntie, I caught glimpses of my late mother in my mind: The moments my mother would run out and pray when the thunderbirds came. The times she would share the traditional teachings that escaped the clutches of colonialism and genocide. She would share them with stories of her own gokamis (her grandmother.) When I was in my twenties, my mother began to equip herself with better coping tools. She would openly cry in front of us, and explain that she was just moving through her emotions. She began to share her family’s stories in more healthy ways. She also taught me from her own mistakes, in a way. Now that I’m a mother, I know how to tell the truth of our family history with my daughter, with developmentally-appropriate language, so as to not cause additional vicarious trauma in our children today.

My late mother made amends with me shortly before she passed away, apologizing for all the pain she carried and projected because of all that was done to our people. For that I am so grateful.

In her absence, it’s my auntie who has taken on the role of a mother and gokamis to my toddler daughter when we visit. She wraps her in love, singing songs and sharing the teachings she does know with genuine adoration.

This is how our aunties and our mothers are the original cycle-breakers. They became the frame of reference for me on how to reclaim our traditions and interrupt the patterns of lasting violence that continue to this day because of those schools. We rely on the teachings from past generations to carry us during the most difficult times.

© Provided by Today's Parent two women standing together
Photo: The author’s grandmother and great-grandmother. Courtesy of Andrea Landry

Now my young daughter, who soaks up knowledge like a sponge, is teaching me how to live life fully immersed in the land of her ancestors, and how to continuously fall in love with our language.

I want all Canadians to know that when my people made treaties with the Crown, the original intent and outcome was never based on the idea that we, as Indigenous nations, would assimilate to the point that we would deem our own political, traditional governance, and kinship systems and customs irrelevant and dissolvable. The treaties created an agreement between Indigenous nations and the Crown, which eventually took the shape of Canada. Somehow, with this came the very false idea that the government had full reign, power and control over Indigenous nations, communities, and families—including the formation of the residential school system. It was created as a means to “kill the Indian in the child,” and ultimately it was an attempt to cause a disruption in our kinship systems so severe that we would never return back to who we are. But we proved them wrong. We are still here. My aunties, my daughter and I are following the footsteps of the original cycle-breakers. We are committed to undoing the processes of genocide within our own bloodlines by continuing to raise our children with the traditions, culture, and practices that have been a part of our existence for generations.

Old-growth logging opponents launch hunger strike as arrests continue at Fairy Creek

VICTORIA — Opponents of old-growth logging on southern Vancouver Island say they will stage a hunger strike in Vancouver until they can meet with British Columbia Premier John Horgan and Jonathan Wilkinson, the federal environment and climate change minister.

© Provided by The Canadian Press

Extinction Rebellion spokesman Zain Haq says in a statement Sunday the hunger strike is in support of protestors camped near old-growth forest logging areas west of Victoria, which has been the scene of 222 arrests in recent weeks at Fairy Creek.

Haq says the hunger strikers will gather today at Burrard Street in downtown Vancouver and refuse food until they get the meeting with Horgan, Wilkinson and B.C. Forests Minister Katrine Conroy to discuss old-growth logging and climate change.

On Wednesday, the B.C. government approved the request of three Vancouver Island First Nations who wanted old-growth logging deferred in their territories for two years, but the protests are continuing.

The RCMP began enforcing a B.C. Supreme Court injunction ordering the removal of blockades and protesters at several sites on May 17, and on Saturday arrested eight more people for breaching the injunction, including two minors.

Activists say little of the best old-growth forests remain in B.C. and Fairy Creek is the last unprotected, intact valley on southern Vancouver Island.

"Our demand is to meet with the premier, the minister of forestry and the federal minister for climate change and environment Canada," says Haq. "We want to eat, but we will wait for them. Whether we eat or not will be completely up to the three politicians."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 13, 2021.

The Canadian Press

Amazon, faced with criticism over warehouse employee injuries, tests new tech to make moving packages safer

rungarino@businessinsider.com (Rebecca Ungarino) 

A package in an Amazon warehouse on December 8, 2020.

 Rolf Vennenbernd/picture alliance via Getty Images

Amazon is testing new technologies in an effort to make handling packages safer for employees.

One such project in early development involves the use of motion-capture software.

A recent analysis found Amazon workers suffer injuries at higher rates than other companies.

Amazon is testing new technologies in a bid to make handling packages and other work safer for employees, the e-commerce said Sunday, two weeks after a Washington Post analysis found Amazon warehouse workers suffer serious injuries at higher rates than other companies.

The company said in a post that its robotics and advanced technology teams are testing and developing new projects, like one project in early development that involves using motion-capture software to asses employees' movement.

The company has a goal of reducing recordable incidents by half by 2025, Kevin Keck, Amazon's worldwide director of advanced technology, said in the post.

"Something as simple as changing the position of handles on totes may help lower the risk of injuries to our employees at a massive scale," Keck said.

The safety of Amazon's warehouses has drawn scrutiny in recent months. On June 1, the Washington Post's Jay Greene and Chris Alcantara published findings from an analysis of Occupational Safety and Health Administration data showing Amazon's serious injury rates are nearly double those at other companies' facilities.

A spokesperson for Amazon, whose founder Jeff Bezos owns the Post, declined to provide comment to the newspaper on specific data showing the rate of injuries, and did not dispute the Post's method for analyzing injury rates.

The spokesperson said Amazon spent more than $1 billion last year on safety measures, and hired more than 6,200 employees to a group dedicated to workplace health and safety.

On Sunday, the company said it is testing one project with the goal of reducing the need for workers in fulfillment centers to reach up or bend down when fetching items, movements which could strain employees' bodies.

The workstation system, nicknamed "Ernie," would instead take totes off of a robotic shelf and use a robotic arm to deliver the items to employees.

© Ina Fassbender/AFP via Getty Images 

A separate robotics project undergoing testing, nicknamed "Bert," would autonomously move through Amazon warehouses and may have the ability to move heavy items, taking strain off of employees.

The company has come under pressure for the way it has operated its facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Last fall, two Michigan lawmakers who made a surprise visit to an Amazon warehouse questioned the safety of Amazon facilities. Representatives Rashida Tlaib and Debbie Dingell, both Democrats, said they saw workers bypassing temperature checks and said they saw just one cleaning crew for an 850,000 square-foot warehouse, Bloomberg News reported.

Other reports have highlighted the dangers warehouse workers can face on the job. Last fall, the Center of Investigative Journalism's publication Reveal found that Amazon recorded 14,000 serious injuries (defined as those requiring days off or job restrictions) in 2019. The rate Reveal's Will Evans found of 7.7 series injuries per 100 employees was 33% higher than in 2016.

A spokesperson said Amazon's top priority is the health and safety of its teams.

Shell says a court ruling on greenhouse gases will speed up its plans to cut emissions.

“For Shell, this ruling does not mean a change but rather an acceleration of our strategy,” said Ben van Beurden, the chief executive of Shell.

Credit...Benoit Tessier/Reuters

By Stanley Reed

NY TIMES
June 9, 2021

Royal Dutch Shell will respond to a recent defeat in a Dutch court by accelerating its efforts to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions, the company’s leader said Wednesday.

Ben van Beurden, the chief executive of Shell, said that he was “disappointed” by the ruling requiring the oil company, Europe’s largest, to move faster in slashing greenhouse gases, but added that the company was planning to do just that.

“For Shell, this ruling does not mean a change but rather an acceleration of our strategy,” Mr. van Beurden said in an article published on LinkedIn. “We will seek ways to reduce emissions even further in a way that remains purposeful and profitable,” he added.

On May 26, the District Court in The Hague ruled that Shell must reduce its global net carbon emissions by 45 percent, by 2030 compared with 2019. The court said that Shell owed a duty of care to the citizens of the Netherlands, where the company has its headquarters, to protect them from the consequences of global warming like rising sea levels.

Mr. van Beurden said his first reaction to the ruling was “surprise” because Shell had been in the forefront among oil majors in setting out targets to reduce emissions including those of the customers who burn the company’s products in their cars or jet engines. He also said that if Shell decided to stop selling gasoline and diesel today, people would just turn to other providers for fuel. “It would not help the world one bit,” he said.

Mr. van Beurden said that Shell still expected to appeal the judgment.

After reflection, though, Mr. van Beurden said he and his colleagues also felt “a determination to rise to the challenge” posed by the court.

The Shell executives may have realized that the ruling is a harbinger of increased pressures to come and that Shell, which has a long history dating to the 19th century, needs to do more on climate change if it wants to thrive in future decades.

Stanley Reed has been writing from London for The Times since 2012 on energy, the environment and the Middle East. 

Shell ready to ‘rise to challenge’ of court ruling, CEO expects to appeal verdict

Shell’s CEO has said it will “rise to the challenge” after the supermajor was ordered by a Dutch court to drastically cut its emissions.


By Hamish Penman
09/06/2021,

l

Shell's Nelson platform in the North Sea.

Shell’s CEO has said it will “rise to the challenge” after the supermajor was ordered by a Dutch court to drastically cut its emissions.

But Ben van Beurden said the landmark ruling has not impacted the fact that Shell is “more determined than ever” to play its part in tackling climate change.

He also confirmed that Anglo-Dutch company is reviewing the judgement and expects to appeal it.

A court in the Hague recently ordered Shell to cut its net carbon emissions by 45%, compared to its 2019 level.

The case, which was brought forward by Friends of the Earth Netherlands (Milieudefensie), was hailed as a momentous win for environmental groups.

As a result of the verdict, Shell will have to ramp up its decarbonisation agenda, though there are likely to be future court battles over the case.

© Photographer: Jason Alden/BloombergShell CEO Ben van Beurden.

Reacting to the judgement, Mr Van Beurden said: “My first response was surprise. After all, Shell has set the pace in our industry by taking responsibility for reducing all our carbon emissions: not just those we produce ourselves, but also those produced when our customers use the energy products we sell, for example, to drive their cars, power their businesses and heat their homes. Over 90% of the emissions we are responsible for come from the use of the products we sell.

“I also questioned the ruling and its implications. We are carefully reviewing the court’s judgment and the challenges it presents, and we expect to appeal. Some two weeks on, I still feel disappointed that Shell is being singled out by a ruling that I believe does not help reduce global CO2 emissions.

“But, along with my colleagues, I feel something else: a determination to rise to the challenge.”

Despite the prospect of an appeal looming, the court has said its decision applies immediately and should not be suspended in the event of future court battles.

For Shell, that “does not mean a change”, rather an “acceleration” of its strategy to become a net-zero emissions business by 2050, Mr van Beurden said.

He added: “We have set rigorous, short-term reduction targets along the way to make sure we achieve net zero.

“But now we will seek ways to reduce emissions even further in a way that remains purposeful and profitable. That is likely to mean taking some bold but measured steps over the coming years.

“In April this year we published our detailed Energy Transition Strategy. And in May, we became the first energy company to put its energy transition strategy to a vote of shareholders at our Annual General Meeting. It won 89% support. We will give our shareholders a chance to vote on our progress every year.

“The court did not consider this because the hearing that led to the ruling took place several months before we published this strategy and, of course, before major investors demonstrated their support at the AGM.”

Milieudefensie celebrates a win over Shell on May 26, 2021

Photo: Bart Hoogveld

Mr van Beurden also reinforced the industry’s message that oil and gas will be part of the picture for decades to come.

He also warned of the possible implications of companies calling time on hydrocarbon production.

“To mention one, perhaps extreme scenario, imagine Shell decided to stop selling petrol and diesel today. This would certainly cut Shell’s carbon emissions. But it would not help the world one bit. Demand for fuel would not change. People would fill up their cars and delivery trucks at other service stations,” Mr van Beurden said.

As it stands, Shell has free reign to decide how it wishes to cut its carbon emissions, with divesting carbon intense assets offering an easy solution.

But analysts have warned that this could lead to an increase in global emissions as assets fall into the hands of smaller operators with less experience.

Mr van Beurden said the decision by the court to single out one energy company is “not the answer” to tackling climate change.

He said Shell should work with its customers to help them “find their own pathways” to hitting net zero, thereby helping to “grow demand for new low-carbon products”.

Mr van Beurden added: “For companies to invest successfully, they also need bold, clear, and consistent government policies and regulations. Greater collaboration between governments, companies and customers will allow us and others to build up our low-carbon energy businesses in the fastest way.

“Nevertheless, a court has ordered us to go even faster. Shell is a great company with a long history of rising to the most difficult challenges. We may disagree with this order, but we will continue to embrace the leading role we must play in helping to develop a low-carbon energy system. This is another challenge we will rise to.”

Exclusive-Shell weighs blockbuster sale of Texas shale assets

By Ron Bousso, Jessica Resnick-Ault and David French

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell is reviewing its holdings in the largest U.S. oil field for a potential sale, people familiar with the matter told Reuters, marking a key moment in its shift away from fossil fuels as it faces growing pressure to slash carbon emissions.

The sale could be for part or all of Shell's position in the U.S. Permian Basin, located mostly in Texas, which accounted for around 6% of the Anglo-Dutch company's total oil and gas output last year. The holdings could be worth more than $10 billion, the people said.

Shell declined to comment.

There was no guarantee Shell would end up striking a deal for the assets, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential information.

Shell, the second largest western energy company, and its peers have come under investor pressure to increase profits and slash planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions, including by shedding assets.

Any retreat from the Permian would mark a major shift from an area previously identified as one of nine core basins in its energy transition strategy to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. For all the activity in the Permian, profits have remained elusive because of scale and constant drilling required to boost output.

Shell's energy transition plan, one of the sector's most ambitious, aims to reduce oil and gas output gradually and boost spending on renewables, hydrogen and low-carbon technologies.

A Dutch court last month ordered Shell to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, much faster than planned. Shell plans to appeal the ruling, CEO Ben van Beurden said last week, but the company will also deepen emission cuts, a move likely to shrink its oil and gas business.

The energy major plans to reduce oil output by 1% to 2% per year by 2030 through lower investment and disposals. It will increase spending on renewables and low carbon technologies to up to 25% of its overall budget by 2025.

(Graphic: Shell's energy transition spending - https://tmsnrt.rs/38UTbKj)

PERMIAN HEATING UP

The Permian's rapid growth upended global oil markets last decade with vast production and the ability to ramp output up and down. Its potential for future gains has fueled strong dealmaking even amid uncertainty over the long-term outlook for oil demand.

Benchmark oil prices have soared this year with fuel demand rising as the coronavirus pandemic ebbs. U.S. crude futures are up 49% this year to nearly $72 per barrel, more than double their 2020 lows.

More shale deals are likely this year, with industry experts pointing to big Permian land holders including Chevron and Exxon Mobil aiming to shed some assets to raise cash.

Permian consolidation has accelerated, with Pioneer Natural Resources acquiring two companies, and ConocoPhillips acquiring another. Occidental Petroleum agreed to sell some of its Permian holdings to Colgate Energy for $508 million in a move to reduce its debt.

A U.S. DOWNSIZING

Shell's oil and gas production from company-operated and non-operated rigs in the Permian averaged 193,000 barrels of oil and gas per day in 2020, according to its website, down from about 250,000 the prior year.

Permian production overall is roughly 4.5 million barrels per day, or about 40% of total U.S. output.

A Permian sale would further shrink Shell's U.S. footprint. The company has agreed to sell all but one of its U.S. oil refineries. It continues major offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico and could green-light a new development, called Whale, in the coming months.

A full sale would mark one of Shell's largest disposals in recent years and pare net debt to below its $65 billion target, a key part of its energy transition strategy. Net debt reached $71 billion at the end of March.

The Hague-based Shell bought its initial Permian acreage from Chesapeake Energy in 2012 for $1.9 billion and inherited a joint venture that Chesapeake had with Anadarko. They dissolved the venture five years later, leaving Shell with the 260,000 net acres it now holds.

(Reporting by Ron Bousso, Jessica Resnick Ault and David French; Additional reporting by Gary McWilliams; Writing by David Gaffen and Ron Bousso; Editing by Daniel Wallis)

Top nuclear watchdog: Lack of Iran deal leaves agency 'flying blind'

CONCERNED ABOUT ISRAEL'S 'NUCLEAR' AMBITIONS

Joseph Choi 

Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said in an interview that aired on Sunday that his agency was "flying blind" due to not having a deal in place with Iran.

 Getty Top nuclear watchdog: Lack of Iran deal leaves agency 'flying blind'

Speaking with Axios's Margaret Talev, Grossi said it is "essential to have a deal" with Iran "because Iran has a very big, ambitious, sophisticated, developed nuclear program."

Talev noted that the absence of a deal prevented the IAEA from monitoring Iran's nuclear program. The country has recently made moves to limit the IAEA's monitoring capabilities, briefly threatening to end its access to surveillance cameras, though Iran later agreed to a one-month extension.

The IAEA said in May that it has not been able to access date necessary to monitor the Iranian nuclear program since February.

"As I say, we are flying blind," Grossi commented to Talev.

Talev also noted that Israel is known to have a nuclear program, though it has never publicly disclosed information regarding its arsenal.

"I wouldn't go into the analysis of individual political stances of countries but it is obvious and this has been said publicly," Grossi said, though he acknowledged there was an "opaqueness" when it came to Israel's nuclear program. "But some leaders in this region [have said] that the presence of a new nuclear arsenal would trigger a nuclear arms race in the region."

"We do have a relationship with Israel and we do inspect the facilities that are outside the program," Grossi said, telling Talev that the IAEA believes Israel should join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

Negotiations for Iran to reenter the nuclear deal are still ongoing in Vienna, with the US engaging indirectly through allies. Last week, the U.S. lifted some sanctions on Iranian officials following a stall in the negotiation. Sanctions on companies that ship and trade petrochemical products as well as sanctions on former senior National Iranian Oil Co. officials were lifted.

However, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said that there was "absolutely no connection" between the lifting of these sanctions and the Iranian nuclear deal negotiations.

"These actions demonstrate our commitment to lifting sanctions in the event of a change in status or behavior by sanctioned persons," Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated.

UH OH, GLOW IN THE DARK

China nuclear plant: US assessing reported leak at facility in Taishan, Guangdong

By Zachary Cohen, CNN 


The US government has spent the past week assessing a report of a leak at a Chinese nuclear power plant, after a French company that part owns and helps operate it warned of an "imminent radiological threat," according to US officials and documents reviewed by CNN.

© Deng Hua/Xinhua/Alamy RBTWTW Beijing, China. 20th Dec, 2018. Photo taken on Dec. 20, 2018 shows the first phase project of Taishan Nuclear Power Plant in Taishan, south China's Guangdong Province. Credit: Deng Hua/Xinhua/Alamy Live News

The warning included an accusation that the Chinese safety authority was raising the acceptable limits for radiation detection outside the Taishan Nuclear Power Plant in Guangdong province in order to avoid having to shut it down, according to a letter from the French company to the US Department of Energy obtained by CNN.

Despite the alarming notification from Framatome, the French company, the Biden administration believes the facility is not yet at a "crisis level," one of the sources said.

While US officials have deemed the situation does not currently pose a severe safety threat to workers at the plant or Chinese public, it is unusual that a foreign company would unilaterally reach out to the American government for help when its Chinese state-owned partner is yet to acknowledge a problem exists. The scenario could put the US in a complicated situation should the leak continue or become more severe without being fixed.

However, concern was significant enough that the National Security Council held multiple meetings last week as they monitored the situation, including two at the deputy level and another gathering at the assistant secretary level on Friday, which was led by NSC Senior Director for China Laura Rosenberger and Senior Director for Arms Control Mallory Stewart, according to US officials.

The Biden administration has discussed the situation with the French government and their own experts at the Department of Energy, sources said. The US has also been in contact with the Chinese government, US officials said, though the extent of that contact is unclear.

The US government declined to explain the assessment but officials at the NSC, State Department and the Department of Energy insisted that if there were any risk to the Chinese public, the US would be required to make it known under current treaties related to nuclear accidents.

Framatome had reached out to the US in order to obtain a waiver that would allow them to share American technical assistance in order to resolve the issue at the Chinese plant. There are only two reasons why this waiver would be granted, and one is an "imminent radiological threat," the same verbiage used in the June 8 memo.

The memo claims the Chinese limit was increased to exceed French standards, yet it remains unclear how that compares to US limits.

"It is not surprising that the French would reach out," according to Cheryl Rofer, a nuclear scientist who retired from Los Alamos National Laboratory in 2001. "In general, this sort of thing is not extraordinary, particularly if they think the country they are contacting has some special ability to help."

"But China likes to project that everything is just fine, all the time," she added.

The US could give permission for Framatome to provide the technical assistance or support to help resolve the issue, but it is the Chinese government's decision whether the incident requires shutting down the plant completely, the documents obtained by CNN indicate.

Ultimately, the June 8 request for assistance from Framatome is the only reason why the US became involved in the situation at all, multiple sources told CNN.

However, the Taishan Nuclear Power Plant published a statement on its website Sunday night local time, maintaining that environmental readings for both the plant and its surrounding area were "normal."

The two nuclear reactors in Taishan are both operational, the statement said, adding that Unit 2 had recently completed an "overhaul" and "successfully connected to the grid on June 10, 2021." The statement did not define why or how the plant was overhauled.

"Since it was put into commercial operation, the Taishan Nuclear Power Plant has strictly controlled the operation of the units in accordance with operating license documents and technical procedures. All operating indicators of the two units have met the requirements of nuclear safety regulations and power plant technical specifications," the statement noted.

In a separate statement Friday, hours after CNN first reached out for comment, Framatome acknowledged the company "is supporting resolution of a performance issue with the Taishan Nuclear Power Plant in Guangdong Province, China."

"According to the data available, the plant is operating within the safety parameters. Our team is working with relevant experts to assess the situation and propose solutions to address any potential issue," the statement added.

Framatome would not directly address the content of the letter to the Department of Energy when asked by CNN.

The letter comes as tensions between Beijing and Washington remain high and as G7 leaders met this weekend in the United Kingdom with China an important topic of discussion. There are no indications the reports of a leak were discussed at a high level at the summit.

Video: Concerns over possible leak at nuclear plant in southern China (CNN)

Duration 3:30

French utility company Electrictie de France (EDF) said in a statement it has been informed of an increase concentration of "noble gases in the primary circuit" of reactor number one of the Taishan nuclear power plant.

EDF holds a 30% stake in the company with Chinese state energy company China General Nuclear Power Group in TNPJVC, which owns and operates the power plant in southern China.

EDF says "the presence of certain noble gases in the primary circuit is a known phenomenon, studied and provided for in the reactor operating procedures," but did not elaborate on gas levels.

CNN has reached out to the Chinese authorities in Beijing and Guangdong province, where the plant is located, and the Chinese embassy in Washington, DC. None have responded directly, though China is amidst a three-day national holiday that runs through the end of Monday.

A warning from a French nuclear company

The issue first emerged when Framatome, a French designer and supplier of nuclear equipment and services that was contracted to help construct and operate the Chinese-French plant, reached out to the US Department of Energy late last month informing them of a potential issue at the Chinese nuclear plant.

The company, mainly owned by EDF, the French utility company, then submitted an operational safety assistance request on June 3, formally asking for a waiver that would allow them to address an urgent safety matter, to the Department of Energy, warning American officials that the nuclear reactor is leaking fission gas.

The company followed up with DOE on June 8 asking for an expedited review of their request, according to a memo obtained by CNN.

"The situation is an imminent radiological threat to the site and to the public and Framatome urgently requests permission to transfer technical data and assistance as may be necessary to return the plant to normal operation," read the June 8 memo from the company's subject matter expert to the Energy Department.

Framatome reached out to the US government for assistance, the document indicates, because a Chinese government agency was continuing to increase its limits on the amount of gas that could safely be released from the facility without shutting it down, according to the documents reviewed by CNN.

When asked by CNN for comment, the Energy Department did not directly address the memo's claim that China was raising the limits.

In the June 8 memo, Framatome informed DOE the Chinese safety authority has continued to raise regulatory "off-site dose limits." It also says the company suspects that limit might be increased again as to keep the leaking reactor running despite safety concerns for the surrounding population.

"To ensure off-site dose limits are maintained within acceptable bounds to not cause undue harm to the surrounding population, TNPJVC (operator of Taishan-1) is required to comply with an regulatory limit and otherwise shut the reactor down if such a limit is exceeded," the June 8 memo reads.

It notes that this limit was established at a level consistent with what is dictated by the French safety authority, but "due to the increasing number of failures," China's safety authority, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has since revised the limit to more than double the initial release, "which in turn increases off-site risk to the public and on-site workers."

As of May 30, the Taishan reactor had reached 90% of the allegedly revised limit, the memo adds, noting concerns the plant operator may be "petitioning the NNSA to further increase the shutdown limit on an exigent basis in an effort to keep running which in turn would continue to increase the risk to the off-site population and the workers at the plant site."

The NNSA is a semi-autonomous agency in China responsible for enhancing national security through the military application of nuclear and radiation science.

The US State Department came into possession of the June 8 letter and immediately began engaging with interagency partners and with the French government, State Department officials said.

Over the course of 48-72 hours, the US government has been in repeated contact with French officials and US technical experts at DOE, State Department officials said, noting that this flurry of activity was due to the June 8 letter.

Subsequently, there were several urgent questions for the French government and Framatome, they added. CNN has reached out to the French embassy in Washington for comment.

Still, Rofer, the retired nuclear scientist, warns that a gas leak could indicate bigger problems.

"If they do have a gas leak, that indicates some of their containment is broken," Rofer said. "It also argues that maybe some of the fuel elements could be broken, which would be a more serious problem."

"That would be a reason for shutting down the reactor and would then require the reactor to be refueled," Rofer told CNN, adding that removing the fuel elements must be done carefully.

For now, US officials do not think the leak is at "crisis level," but acknowledge it is increasing and bears monitoring, the source familiar with the situation told CNN.

While there is a chance the situation could become a disaster, US officials currently believe it is more likely that it will not become one, the source added.

China has expanded its use of nuclear energy in recent years, and it represents about 5% of all power generated in the country. According to China Nuclear Energy Association, there were 16 operational nuclear plants with 49 nuclear reactors in China as of March 2021, with the total generation capacity of 51,000 megawatts.

The Taishan plant is a prestige project built after China signed a nuclear electricity generation agreement with Électricité de France, which is mainly owned by the French government. The construction of the plant started in 2009, and the two units started generating electricity in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

The city of Taishan has a population of 950,000 and is situated in the southeast of the country in Guangdong province, which is home to 126 million residents and has a GDP of $1.6 trillion, comparable to that of Russia and South Korea.

© CNN

China nuclear plant: US assessing reported leak at facility in Taishan, Guangdong (msn.com)

'No such thing as impossible:' Nunavut MP reflects on time in Parliament

Sitting in her Ottawa apartment on a hot morning, Mumilaaq Qaqqaq thinks about her grandparents, who, like most Nunavut Inuit of their generation, grew up on the land. 

 Provided by The Canadian Press

She thinks about her father, who was also born there but moved with his family into what's known today as Baker Lake, the only inland community in Nunavut and the closest one to the geographic centre of Canada.

"Thinking about those two completely different worlds and completely different times — how short the amount of time there is in between them — and then all our communities, and all the hurt and turmoil that's happened," Qaqqaq told The Canadian Press.

Qaqqaq is the only member of Parliament for, geographically speaking, the largest riding in the country. The 27-year-old represents about 40,000 people spread over three time zones and 25 fly-in-only communities.

She grew up in Baker Lake and worked for the territory's land claim organization and the Nunavut government in Iqaluit before she was elected in 2019.

Becoming a politician wasn't something she planned to do.

Qaqqaq says she was asked to be the NDP's candidate about two months before the vote.

"I came into this not knowing what I was walking into whatsoever. It took me a really long time to even wrap my head around what I did when I got elected."

She "hit the ground running and never really stopped."

“It’s been crazy. I can’t think of another word to describe it. I don’t think life-changing is even strong enough. It’s been a lot of things, but ultimately a huge learning experience."

Nancy Karetak-Lindell, a former Liberal MP for Nunavut, has a similar story. She was asked to run in April 1997 and was elected that June. She served 11 years before deciding she wanted to spend more time with her family.

"You don't fully grasp what the requirements of you are until you get elected," says Karetak-Lindell, who now lives in Rankin Inlet.

Qaqqaq and Karetak-Lindell both say they had to learn quickly that Nunavut's problems, including housing, health care and food security, put heavy burdens on them as the territory's only representative in Ottawa.

"You have challenges that are not felt by any other member of Parliament. The issues here are very different compared to most of the ridings in Canada," Karetak-Lindell says.

Qaqqaq took time away from work after she went on a housing tour of Nunavut last fall. At the time, she said it left her feeling anxious, depressed and overwhelmed.

"I wish I could look back and (say), 'Hey, slow down. Pace yourself. There's time to figure things out,'" she says.

The tour helped bring the territory's housing crisis to light, but there is still more work to do, she says.

"There’s an awareness of the current struggles, but not about how it’s gotten to that point and what that means for an individual and entire families and entire communities.

"I wasn’t taught about my own history about what happened in the North. When you’re around a lot of oppression and turmoil, sometimes you don’t even realize it."

Karetak-Lindell agrees the job was difficult.

"People have gone through so much hardship. You can't not feel for them. You hear things that impact you forever and it's not something you can turn off when you leave your workplace."

Qaqqaq took another leave from work in late April following a social media post she made questioning whether Labrador Liberal MP Yvonne Jones was Inuk. A doctor recommended she take time off.

"I learned my limits. Learned my balance. Learned the importance of self care and counselling and finding that balance in me."

In late May, Qaqqaq announced she won't be seeking re-election, but will be working hard in Ottawa in the meantime "fighting for Nunavummiut to have basic human rights."

"I want to talk a lot more about how the federal institution, the RCMP, the churches all played key, key roles in breaking down Inuit, in breaking down our communities."

Rebecca Kudloo, president of the Pauktuutit Inuit Women of Canada, says Qaqqaq's voice in Parliament has been "courageous and important" for Inuit.

"Anyone would have looked at me, including myself, until October 2019 and laughed and said, 'Yeah, right as if she’s going to get elected,'" Qaqqaq says.

"I just keep showing people don't ever let anyone tell you no you can't. I keep showing people I can make decisions for myself and stay true to myself and I can still do a good job in spaces that aren't built for Indigenous people.

"There's no such thing as impossible. I've been proving that to everybody my entire term."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 13, 2021.

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This story was produced with the financial assistance of the Facebook and Canadian Press News Fellowship.

Emma Tranter, The Canadian Press

#YEG; RACISM, MISOGYNY, ISLAMOPHOBIA
Somali-Canadian group says another woman wearing a hijab attacked in Edmonton


EDMONTON — The chair of a group representing Somali Canadians in Edmonton says there has been another local attack on a woman who was wearing a hijab.

Jibril Ibrahim alleges the Somali-Canadian woman was walking by herself in northeast Edmonton on Friday evening when an unknown man grabbed her by her neck and pushed her down to the sidewalk before fleeing the scene.

He says her face was bloodied, some of her teeth are loose and she spent Friday night in hospital.

Police said in an email they are investigating a report of a Black woman in her 50s who was walking in the area at around 9 p.m. when she was assaulted by an unknown suspect.

They said she received treatment for non-life-threatening injuries at a local medical centre and then reported the incident to police.

Ibrahim says the alleged attack, the latest in a spate of similar incidents, has left the woman badly shaken.

"She's traumatized," Ibrahim said in a phone interview after visiting with the woman on Sunday, noting she's afraid now to leave her home alone.

He said she wasn't up to being interviewed on Sunday, and was frightened to appear on camera.

Edmonton has seen a number of alleged attacks on Muslim women in recent months.

City police say two women wearing hijabs were sitting in a mall parking lot in December when a stranger shattered a window, assaulted the passenger as she tried to flee and then assaulted the second woman when she tried to help. A man faces charges of assault and mischief in that case.

Video: Muslim women on the fear they experience daily in Canada (cbc.ca)

In March, a man was charged after three allegedly hate-motivated attacks on women in Edmonton.

In the first, police said the Black victim was followed inside a convenience store on Jan. 18 and allegedly assaulted.

The second and third attacks took place on the same day in early February. One woman was wearing a hijab and the other wore a burqa.

A 44-year-old man faces three counts of uttering threats and three of assault in those incidents.

"What we are aware of is only what has been reported to police. There is more than that, and a lot of people are afraid to report it, afraid that someone is going to follow them to their house," Ibrahim said.

Police said in their email that their Hate Crimes and Violent Extremism Unit has been told about the most recent incident on Friday, but its Investigative Response Team is still handling the case.

The incidents, as well as the deaths of four members of a Muslim family in London, Ont., earlier this month, have many Canadian Muslims on edge.

Ibrahim says the most recent victim has been in Canada for 30 years, and while she's been harassed in shops and other places, she's never experienced such violence.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney announced on Friday that groups that experience hate crimes will soon be able to apply for grants to pay for security upgrades.

Ibrahim is calling for the bar for hate crimes to be lowered.

"So far, it looks like more or less, our leadership from the prime minister to the mayor, they're hoping that these people will go away. But it doesn't work that way," he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 13, 2021.

Rob Drinkwater, The Canadian Press