Trump says he would renege on $3 billion US pledge for Green Climate Fund

Wed, December 13, 2023 
By Nathan Layne

CORALVILLE, Iowa (Reuters) - Donald Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, said on Wednesday that if elected he would renege on a $3 billion U.S. pledge to a global fund meant to help developing countries cut emissions and adapt to climate change.

The pledge was announced by Vice President Kamala Harris this month in Dubai at the U.N. COP28 climate summit, although it is subject to the politically divided U.S. Congress, which must authorize the release of funds.


Trump, who has made attacking the administration of President Joe Biden's investments in renewable energy a core part of his campaign message, said he was opposed to what he called "climate reparations" to other countries.

A campaign aide confirmed that Trump was referring to the $3 billion U.S. pledge to the Green Climate Fund.

"When I am back in office all climate reparation payments will be canceled immediately," Trump said at a campaign event in Coralville, Iowa, adding he would seek to "claw back" any payments made by the Biden administration.

Trump leads his rivals for the Republican nomination by nearly 50 percentage points in national opinion polls, meaning he is likely to face Biden, the presumptive Democratic Party nominee, in the November 2024 election.

(Reporting by Nathan Layne in Coralville, Iowa; Editing by Gerry Doyle)


What was agreed on climate change at COP28 in Dubai?

Mark Poynting - Climate and environment researcher, BBC News
Wed, December 13, 2023 

A tram with the words 'hello Dubai' passes in front of the Dubai skyline.


World leaders have reached a new agreement to tackle climate change at a big UN meeting in Dubai.

The summit followed a year of extreme weather events in which many climate records were broken.
What was COP28 and where was it?

COP28 was the 28th annual United Nations (UN) climate meeting, where governments discuss how to limit and prepare for future climate change.

The summit took place in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It was scheduled to last from 30 November to 12 December 2023, but overran by a day.

A really simple guide to climate change


Four ways climate change affects extreme weather
What does COP stand for?

COP stands for "Conference of the Parties", where the "parties" are the countries that signed up to the original UN climate agreement in 1992.
Why was holding COP28 in Dubai controversial?

The UAE is one of the world's top 10 oil-producing nations.

It appointed Sultan al-Jaber, chief executive of the state-owned oil company, as COP28 president.

Sultan al-Jaber's appointment was widely criticised

Oil - like gas and coal - is a fossil fuel. These are the main causes of climate change because they release planet-warming greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide when burned for energy.

Mr Jaber's oil company is expected to rapidly expand production this decade.

Documents leaked to the BBC also suggested the UAE planned to use its role as COP28 host to strike new oil and gas deals.

Mr Jaber previously argued that he was uniquely well-placed to push for action from the oil and gas industry.

He said that as chairman of renewable energy firm Masdar, he had overseen the expansion of clean technologies like wind and solar power.

What was agreed at COP28 about fossil fuels?

For the first time, countries agreed on the need to "transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems".

The text calls for this to be done "in a just, orderly and equitable manner". This is seen as an important recognition that richer countries are expected to move away from coal, oil and gas more quickly.

However, the deal doesn't compel countries to take action, and no timescale is specified.

The COP28 deal was the first to note the need to move away from the fossil fuels that drive global warming

Many groups - including the US, UK, EU and some of the nations which are most vulnerable to climate change - had wanted a more ambitious commitment to "phase out" fossil fuels.

The agreement includes global targets to triple the capacity of renewable energy like wind and solar power, and to double the rate of energy efficiency improvements, both by 2030.

It also calls on countries to accelerate low- and zero-emission technologies like carbon capture and storage.

Examining the impact of COP28's big step forward


How is my country doing tackling climate change?


Is the UK on track to meet its climate targets?
Why was COP28 so important?

COP28 came at a crucial time for the key target to limit long-term global temperature rises to 1.5C.

This was agreed by nearly 200 countries at COP21, which was held in Paris in 2015.

The Paris commitment is crucial to avoid the most damaging impacts of climate change, according to the UN's climate body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

However, before the final deal was agreed at COP28, there were warnings that the world is actually on track for around 2.7C of warming by 2100.

Recent progress had not been in line with what was required, the UN said, leaving a "rapidly narrowing" window for action to keep the 1.5C limit in reach.

Five climate change solutions under the spotlight at COP28


What you can do to reduce carbon emissions
Who went to COP28?

Around 200 nations were represented in the talks.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi were among the world leaders to attend the beginning of the summit.

US President Joe Biden and China's Xi Jinping did not go, but both countries were heavily represented.

King Charles addresses the COP28 summit in Dubai in December 2023

King Charles gave the opening address, warning that humans were carrying out a "vast, frightening experiment" on the planet.

Nearly 100,000 politicians, diplomats, journalists and campaigners registered for the meeting, making it the biggest climate conference ever held.

This included around 2,400 people connected to the coal, oil and gas industries, which underlined concern about the influence of fossil fuel groups.
Will richer countries pay for climate change?

As COP28 got under way, it was announced that the "loss and damage" fund could start handing out money.

The fund was agreed at COP27. The idea is that richer countries - historically the main contributors to warming - pay poorer countries already facing the effects of climate change.

South Sudan is one many developing countries ravaged by the effects of climate change

But the details had remained deeply contested, with wealthy countries like the US reluctant to accept liability for past emissions.

A relatively small amount of money has been pledged so far, but getting the fund up and running is seen as a crucial step in building trust between richer and poorer countries.

Separately, in 2009, developed countries pledged to give $100bn (£80bn) a year to developing countries by 2020, to help them reduce emissions and prepare for climate change.

The target was missed in 2020, but is "likely" to have been met in 2022, according to preliminary data.

The COP28 agreement highlights "the growing gap" between the needs of developing countries and the money provided to cut emissions - but there is no requirement for developed countries to provide more support.
Will COP28 make any difference?

Critics of previous COPs, including campaigner Greta Thunberg, accuse the summits of "greenwashing" - that is, letting countries and businesses promote their climate credentials without actually making the changes needed.

But the summits do offer the potential for global agreements that go beyond national measures.

For example, the 1.5C warming limit, agreed at COP21, has driven "near-universal climate action", according to the UN.

This has helped bring down the level of warming the world can expect - even though the world is still not acting at anywhere near the pace needed to achieve the Paris goals.

Ultimately, the success of COP28 will be determined by the changes the world puts into practice in the years ahead.

Additional reporting by Esme Stallard.

US EPA must do more to ensure captured carbon stays underground -report

Leah Douglas
Wed, December 13, 2023 

FILE PHOTO: Petra Nova CCS Facility at NRG Power Plant in Richmond

By Leah Douglas

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. environment regulator does not sufficiently verify that carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects keep emissions trapped underground and should boost its requirements to ensure companies receiving CCS tax credits provide an actual environmental benefit, a watchdog group said on Thursday.

CCS is a pillar of U.S. President Joe Biden's climate plan, but has been criticized by environmental groups for prolonging the use of fossil fuels. Biden's cornerstone climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, includes lucrative CCS tax credits.

The non-profit group Environmental Integrity Project (EIP) reviewed 21 CCS plans approved by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and found that the agency does not require any specific monitoring strategies or technologies, that companies wrote their own guidelines for addressing leaks, and that ambiguity within the plans makes them difficult to enforce.

An EPA spokesperson told Reuters the agency is reviewing the report.

Another 61 CCS applications are under review by EPA according to the agency's website, most of which were submitted after the IRA became law. The IRA includes tax credits of $60 per metric ton of carbon captured for a purpose like pushing oil out of aging reservoirs and $85 per ton of carbon captured and permanently stored.

"Before this flood of carbon capture and sequestration projects become operational, EPA needs to enact strong industry regulations that can protect the environment while combating climate change,” said Eric Schaeffer, EIP's executive director, in a statement.

Of the 21 plans reviewed by EIP, 16 are from oil and gas companies, three from ethanol plants, and one each from a coal-fired power plant and a coal gassification plant.

EPA regulates most of the country's so-called Class VI wells where carbon emissions are stored, though some states regulate their own wells.

The ethanol industry is particularly hoping CCS will lower its emissions enough to qualify for lucrative low-emission fuel subsidies.

(Reporting by Leah Douglas; Editing by Josie Kao)

DIANA IS A PAGAN GODDESS

French teachers stage walkout after Muslim students ‘offended’ over Renaissance painting spark safety concerns

Danielle Wallace
Tue, December 12, 2023 

French teachers stage walkout after Muslim students ‘offended’ over Renaissance painting spark safety concerns

French teachers concerned for their safety amid a spate of deadly attacks by Islamic extremists staged a walkout at their Paris-area school Monday after Muslim students complained they were "offended" by a 17th century nude Renaissance painting shown in class and accused their instructor of "Islamophobia."

France Education Minister Gabriel Attal made an in-person visit Monday to the Jacques-Cartier school in Issou to respond to the tension days after the painting, "Diana and Actaeon," by the Italian painter Giuseppe Cesari, was shown in class Thursday.

The painting, held by the Louvre Museum in Paris, depicts a Greek mythology scene from Roman poet Ovid's Metamorphoses in which the hunter Actaeon bursts into an area where the goddess Diana and her nymphs are bathing in the nude.

"Some students averted their gaze, felt offended, said they were shocked," Sophie Venetitay, a representative from the Snes-FSU teachers union, explained to Agence France-Presse (AFP), adding "some also alleged the teacher made racist comments."

FRANCE CONVICTS 6 TEENS IN CONNECTION WITH TEACHER'S ISLAMIST BEHEADING

Diana and Actaeon, ca 1600-1603. Found in the Collection of Musée du Louvre, Paris. Artist Cesari, Giuseppe (1568-1640).

A parent reportedly wrote the school administration, threatening to file a complaint, claiming his son was prevented from engaging in class discussion objecting to the painting.

The teachers saw that email as the "final straw" after having already complained of working in a "very degraded climate" while receiving a "lack of support" from management despite "several alerts," Venetitay said. In an email to school administration Friday, teachers warned they would stay out of their classrooms this week, describing a "palpable discomfort," and citing "an increase in cases of violence," according to France 24.

On Monday, Attal assured that students responsible for making complaints against the teacher over the painting would face disciplinary action, and a team would be deployed to the school to ensure pupils adhere to the "values of the republic."

French Education and Youth Minister Gabriel Attal speaks during a session on a controversial immigration bill at the National Assembly in Paris Dec. 12, 2023.

France raised its terror alert to the highest level in October amid the Israel-Hamas war after a man of Chechen origin, identified by prosecutors as Mohammed M, and suspected of Islamic radicalization, stabbed teacher Dominique Bernard to death at his former high school and wounded three other people in the northern city of Arras.

PROTESTS OVER FRENCH TEEN’S FATAL STABBING LEAD TO CALLS FOR CRACKDOWN ON ‘FAR-RIGHT'

Last week, six teenagers were convicted in Paris for their roles in the 2020 beheading of French teacher Samuel Paty, who had shown cartoons of Islam’s Prophet Mohammed published by the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo during a classroom discussion on freedom of expression and secularism.

The publication of the cartoon had triggered a deadly extremist massacre in the Charlie Hebdo newsroom in 2015.

Attendees gather to pay tribute to slain French teachers Samuel Paty and Dominique Bernard, whose portraits are hung on Place de la Comedie, in Montpellier, southern France, Oct. 16, 2023.

Paty was savagely murdered outside his Paris-area school by Abdoullakh Anzorov, a young Chechen who had become radicalized. Anzorov was killed by police.

Authorities say one of the teens admitted to lying to her father that Paty had asked Muslim students to leave the classroom before he showed the class the cartoons and said the teacher punished her for accusing him of anti-Muslim sentiment. In fact, she was not in the classroom that day. Other defendants were accused of helping to identify Paty to Anzorov.

People gather on the Place de la Republique to pay their respects to murdered teacher Dominique Bernard Oct. 16, 2023, in Paris.

The girl’s father shared the lies in an online video that called for mobilization against the teacher. Now incarcerated, her father and a radical Islamic activist who helped disseminate virulent messages against Paty are among eight adults who will face a separate trial for adults suspected of involvement in the killing late next year.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Serbian democracy activists feel betrayed as freedoms, and a path to the EU, slip away

JOVANA GEC and DUSAN STOJANOVIC
Tue, December 12, 2023
 

KRALJEVO, Serbia (AP) — When Serbia began talks to join the European Union in 2014, pro-Western Serbs were hopeful the process would set their troubled country on an irreversible path to democratization. A decade later, that optimism is gone, replaced by feelings of betrayal — both toward their government, which has slid toward autocracy, and the EU, which has done little to stop it.

Predrag Vostinic, 48, says he became a democracy activist by necessity — his way of pushing back against the rising authoritarianism, government corruption and organized crime gripping the Balkan nation. Since May, a grassroots movement he founded in the central city of Kraljevo has joined weekly protests against the government of President Aleksandar Vucic, part of a wider movement.

He and other members of the group faced threats in the streets and on social media. Other government opponents, in Kraljevo and elsewhere, have been sidelined at work or sacked from their jobs in state-run companies, he said.


Still, he said, it’s worth it: “You become sort of a public voice for people.”

Pro-Western Serbs like Vostinic hoped the EU would act as a counterweight, drawing Serbia back to a more democratic path. Instead, Brussels has held back, as Serbia diverted from the EU's stated values, activists say.

“This is one of the reasons why EU’s losing credibility and why the pro-European part of the Serbian society is in a defensive position, because there is nothing to defend," said Vladimir Medjak, deputy head of the European Movement in Serbia and a former member of the EU membership negotiation team.

Even before Vucic came to power in 2012, Serbia was slow to complete the reforms needed to qualify as an EU candidate, such as ensuring the rule of law and a market economy that could integrate with the bloc. And in recent years, after declaring EU membership a strategic goal, it has instead sought stronger ties with Russia and China.

STRUGGLE FOR DEMOCRACY

Serbia’s struggle for democracy began with the fall of Communism in the late 1980s and the wars that followed the violent breakup of the former Yugoslavia. Strongman Slobodan Milosevic’s warmongering in the 1990s turned Serbia into an international pariah, while NATO bombed the country in 1999 to stop the war in the breakaway province of Kosovo.

Milosevic was ousted in 2000 by pro-democracy parties openly backed by the West, setting the stage for reintegration into the international community and the start of democratic reform.

“It wasn’t good enough … but you still had a country where things started to resemble European standards,” said Dragan Djilas, a former mayor of Belgrade who is now one of the leaders of a pro-European coalition that is challenging Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party in parliamentary and local elections on Dec. 17.

“We had free elections, we had the possibility of change (of power) in elections … No one threatened you for thinking differently and no one blackmailed you,” he said. “Today’s Serbia ... would not even be allowed to become a candidate for EU membership.”

Public support in Serbia for joining the EU stands at about 40%. Under the circumstances, pro-democracy activists say, that counts as a success.

EU DEALS CAUTIOUSLY WITH SERBIA

The EU’s enthusiasm for enlarging the bloc waned after 2013, when Serbia’s neighbor Croatia became the newest country to join. The EU had accepted 13 new member states since 2004, most of them in Central and Eastern Europe and needing substantial injections of financial support. The prospect of taking in additional members who would be a drain on the EU budget was hardly enticing.

And then there was Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008. The move was not recognized by Belgrade — nor by some EU member countries with separatist movements of their own, such as Spain, or with close ties to Serbia, such as Cyprus and Greece. The wars of the 1990s had subsided, but Serbia’s unresolved final borders left a huge question mark over its suitability to join the EU.

The EU paid lip service to further enlargement with regular membership updates but made little response as Vucic steadily took over the levers of power in Serbia. Over the years, he and his authorities installed loyalists in key government positions, including the military and secret service, and imposed control over the mainstream media while stepping up pressure on dissent.

“Problem is that all this happened during the EU’s watch,” Medjak said.

With war raging in Ukraine, analysts say the EU has been careful not to push Serbia further away, even as Belgrade refused to join Western sanctions against Moscow. The U.S. and EU have worked closely with Vucic to try to reach a deal in Kosovo, where tensions at the border have threatened regional stability.

ANTI-DEMOCRATIC TIDE RISES

Vucic dismisses criticism that his government has curbed democratic freedoms while allowing corruption and organized crime to run rampant. Pro-government tabloids and state-run media, such as the broadcaster RTS, give scant coverage to the opposition, while dozens of rights groups have faced investigations into their finances.

Vucic regularly blasts Djilas and other opposition leaders as enemies of the state and “thieves” who are taking instructions from Western embassies. Mainstream pro-government media give them no opportunity to respond to the allegations.

During the wars of the 1990s, Vucic was an extreme nationalist who supported Milosevic’s aggressive policies toward non-Serbs. After Milosevic fell, Vucic reinvented himself as a pro-European, helping to found the Serbian Progressive Party in 2009 and pledging to take the country into the EU.

He never delivered on his promises.

Since 2014, Serbia has dropped down the international rankings on democracy. Reporters Without Borders says journalists are threatened by political pressure, while Transparency International ranks Serbia below most countries in the region when it comes to fighting corruption.

In recent years, Serbia's ruling party has "steadily eroded political rights and civil liberties, putting pressure on independent media, the political opposition, and civil society organizations," said the monitoring group Freedom House in its most recent report.

Serbia’s Ministry for European Integration did not grant an interview to the AP, citing the upcoming elections. EU officials also declined to comment.

While activists lament the stagnation of its EU membership bid, Serbia recently received a strong vote of confidence from Italy’s far-right premier, Giorgia Meloni.

Flanked by Vucic, Meloni praised his statesmanship, saying, “Europe isn’t a club who decides who is and who is not European.’’

A CHALLENGE TO SERBIA'S PRESIDENT

In recent months, Vucic has faced a new challenge to his authority. In May, 19 people, many of them children, were killed in two back-to-back mass shootings. The attacks shocked the public, galvanizing protests against a climate of fear and intolerance promoted by the ruling elite.

As he has done in the past when he felt he was losing his grip on power, Vucic called snap parliamentary and local elections for dozens of Serbian towns and cities, including Belgrade.

In response, the protesters formed their own electoral coalition, fielding candidates across the country. Vucic himself is not a candidate this time, but the opposition has hopes of denting his authority by taking control of some local councils.

Political activist Vostinic, who braved pressure from the ruling party in Kraljevo to lead protests there, said Serbia’s society had taken a wrong turn, allowing “people with bad intentions to fill in the gap.”

The EU, he said, is no longer an ally in defending its own values but has focused on economic and other interests, more concerned about countering Russia and China.

Public disappointment is such that “we who support the respect of European values are starting to feel uneasy," Vostinic said.

Opposition leader Djilas is even harsher, saying that “EU politicians largely are allies of Aleksandar Vucic.”

“As a student, my dream was Serbia as a part of Europe, of the European Union,” he said. “I have to admit that now the dream is sometimes turning into a nightmare.”

___

AP writer Frances D’Emilio contributed from Rome.

____

This story, supported by the Pulitzer Center for Crisis Reporting, is part of an ongoing Associated Press series covering threats to democracy in Europe.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic speaks during a pre-election rally of his ruling Serbian Progressive Party in Belgrade, Serbia, Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023. When Serbia formally opened membership negotiations with the European Union, back in 2014, it was a moment of hope for pro-Western Serbs, eager to set their troubled country on an irreversible path to democratization. Those days are long gone. Now, they feel betrayed, both by the government and the EU. 

(AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)

El Nino appears to be on verge of rapid collapse

Andrew Wulfeck
Updated Thu, December 14, 2023

El Nino appears to be on verge of rapid collapse


The climate pattern known as El Niño, which quickly strengthened into a strong event, appears to be on the brink of a major decline, which would send the world into what is known as a neutral status.

When sea surface temperature anomalies in parts of the Pacific reached a mean temperature of 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) in June 2023, the first El Niño in nearly four years was considered to be underway.

According to data compiled by NOAA, the event became strong, with average anomalies reaching nearly 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) during the fall, with the latest reading now on the cusp at 1.9 degrees C (3.42 degrees F).

A status of at least 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) would have pushed the event’s standing into a Super-Niño status, the first since 2015-16. Based on cooling trends, odds are trending down of reaching that level, though NOAA forecasters still give a 54% chance of reaching Super-Niño levels.

El Nino computer model outlook.

Many climate models and sub-surface data show an El Niño that could be on its last legs, with the average dipping below the 0.5 degrees C (0.9 degrees F) threshold during the spring, baring another round of warm water propagation.

NOAA’s latest forecast now suggests El Niño may be over as soon as April — a month earlier than last month’s forecast. The probability of El Niño conditions remaining in April has dropped from 62% to 37%.

Some of the most vigorous climate models show certain regions dipping below the El Niño threshold as early as January. Still, like any weather event, forecasts that greatly deviate from the consensus are not considered to be outliers and not reliable.

WHAT ARE EL NINO AND LA NINA CLIMATE PATTERNS?

A tool that some forecasters use to determine the status of El Niño and La Niña events is the Southern Oscillation Index, or what is commonly referred to as the SOI.

The index measures pressure differences in the southwest Pacific, and when the gauge turns substantially positive, a La Niña event is likely happening or on the way. The reverse is also true, and when figures are markedly negative, an El Niño event is likely in progress.

Recent values provided by Australia’s Queensland Government show a streak of positive figures that have impacted the SOI count. In fact, at times, during the last 30 and 90 days, the figure has weakened below what is typically considered an El Niño event.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values.

El Niños are known to exist when figures are at -8 on the index scale, and La Niñas exist when the average figure is around a positive 8.

The latest SOI values were -7.86 for the last 90 days and -3.88 for the last 30 days, which at a glance would argue against there being an El Niño around, but values change daily and could easily reach El Niño status again.

LITTLE-KNOWN WEATHER PATTERN WHEN EL NINO AND LA NINA ARE NO LONGER IN CONTROL

Despite pressures in Darwin and Tahiti indicating that El Niño could be on its last leg, NOAA data depictions from satellites show no evidence of an emerging neutral or La Niña signal.

A large amount of real estate from South America to the south of Hawaii has anomalies that are 1-2 degrees C (1.8-3.6 degrees F) above average.

Without other observations, the depiction to an untrained eye would say El Niño is robust, but what is happening below the surface has forecasters abuzz.

An animation of water anomaly trends below the surface shows the warm water does not run deep, especially as you head further west from South America.

A large extent of cold water around the international date line has formed and is slowly creeping upwards towards the surface and sliding eastward.

According to long-term climate models, this cool pocket should expand and intensify, especially in the eastern Pacific, where cold water is virtually nonexistent right now.

Pacific Ocean water temperature anomalies.

Climate models such as the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) from NOAA show a stunning flip in the pattern from an El Niño to neutral and even a La Niña within months.

As one ventures out in time, the reliability and accuracy of models tend to diminish, but there is no getting around the fact it is now a question of when, not if, the world will exit the El Niño pattern in 2024.

"Model systematic errors arise because state-of-the-art climate models are still imperfect representations of reality. The complexity of the processes involved (is an additional challenge for models as small errors in one aspect can quickly amplify," climate scientist Eric Guilyardi previously stated in an ENSO blog.

So, if the majority of the members are correct and the world is to enter a neutral pattern, the question then becomes how long will the neutral phase will last.

Neutral phases have been known to last just a few months to several years.

Computer model animation for the coming months from tropicaltidbits.com.

EL NINO, CLIMATE CHANGE TO LIKELY MAKE NEXT 5 YEARS HOTTEST RECORDED ON EARTH, WMO SAYS

The future, the apparent downfall of El Niño, would complicate climate outlooks even further, as the length of the lag between when the weather changes and its associated neutral pattern is a not well-understood concept.

A fast-corresponding change would lead to fewer kinks in the jet stream, meaning more regional patterns dominate local weather.

A lag in the associated weather would keep El Niño-looking patterns around despite the world not officially being in an El Niño.

A lag is rather common as one pattern transitions into another. The world typically experiences a lag during large-scale events.

Take the summer solstice, for example; even though it occurs every June in the Northern Hemisphere, oceans and land usually don’t peak in temperature until July and August.

So, when the world would start feeling the impact of a neutral status would be anyone’s guess.

A neutral pattern typically means a busier spring severe weather season and hurricane season than typically experienced during an El Niño, but it all comes down to timing.

A pattern that flips during the late spring or summer would miss the heart of the severe weather season but catch the hurricane season in order to show its effects. A pattern change in September or beyond would miss out on impacting the 2024 hurricane season but would be in place for next winter.




Original article source: El Nino appears to be on verge of rapid collapse

The last residents of a coastal Mexican town destroyed by climate change

DANIEL SHAILER
Updated Thu, December 14
 

EL BOSQUE, Mexico (AP) — People moved to El Bosque in the 1980s to fish. Setting out into the Gulf of Mexico in threes and fours, fishermen returned with buckets of tarpon and long, streaked snook. There was more than enough to feed them, and build a community — three schools, a small church and a basketball court on the sand.

Then climate change set the sea against the town.

Flooding driven by some of the world’s fastest sea-level rise and by increasingly brutal winter storms has all but destroyed El Bosque, leaving piles of concrete and twisted metal rods where houses used to line the sand. Forced to flee the homes they built, locals are waiting for government aid and living in rentals they can scarcely afford.


The U.N. climate summit known as COP28 finally agreed this month on a multimillion-dollar loss-and-damage fund to help developing countries cope with global warming. It will come too late for the people for El Bosque, caught between Mexico's economically vital national petroleum company and the environmental peril that it fuels.

A rusting sign at the town’s entrance says over 700 people lived in El Bosque two years ago. Now there are barely a dozen. In between those numbers lie the relics of a lost community. At the old, concrete fishing cooperative, one of the few solid buildings left, enormous, vault-like refrigerators have become makeshift storage units for belongings — pictures, furniture, a DVD of Guinness World Records 3 — that families left behind.

Guadalupe Cobos is one of the few still living in El Bosque. A diabetic, she improvises a cooler for her insulin after each flood cuts power. Residents’ relationship with the sea is “like a toxic marriage,” Cobos said, sitting facing the waves on a recent afternoon.

“I love you when I’m happy, right? And when I’m angry I take away everything that I gave you,” she said.

Up to 8 million Mexicans will be displaced by climate change-driven flooding, drought, storms and landslides within the next three decades, according to the Mayors Migration Council, a coalition researching Mexican internal migration.

Along with rapidly rising water levels, winter storms called “nortes” have eaten more than one-third of a mile (500 meters) inland since 2005, according to Lilia Gama, an ecology professor and coastal vulnerability researcher at Tabasco Juarez State University.

“Before, if a norte came in, it lasted one or two days,” said Gama, sitting above the university’s crocodile enclosure. “The tide would come in, it would go up a little bit and it would go away.”

Now winter storms stay for several days at a time, trapping El Bosque’s few remaining locals in their houses if they don’t evacuate early enough. A warming climate spins up more frequent storms as it slams into ultra-cold polar air, and then storms last longer — fueled by hotter air, which can hold more moisture.

Local scientists say one more powerful storm could destroy El Bosque for good. Relocation, slowed by bureaucracy and a lack of funding, is still months away.

As the sun sets over the beach, Cobos, known as Doña Lupe to neighbors, pointed to a dozen small, orange stars on the line of the horizon — oil platforms burning off gas they have failed to capture.

“There is money here,” she said, “but not for us.”

As El Bosque was settled, state oil company Pemex went on an exploration spree in the Gulf — tripling crude oil production and making Mexico into a major international exporter.

As the international community clamors for countries to wind down fossil fuel use, the single leading cause of climate change, Mexico next year plans to open a new refinery in its biggest oil-producing state, just 50 miles (80 kilometers) west of El Bosque.

Gulf of Mexico sea levels are already rising three times faster than the global average, according to a study co-authored by researchers from the United Kingdom’s National Oceanography Center and universities in New Orleans, Florida and California this March.

The stark difference is partly caused by changing circulation patterns in the Atlantic as the ocean warms and expands.

The acceleration has also strengthened massive coastal storms like hurricanes Sandy and Katrina, researchers said, and doubled records of high-tide flooding from the Gulf up to Florida.

“In the 10 years before the acceleration, you might have had a period of rather slow sea-level rise. So people might have gotten a feeling of safety along the coastline, and then the acceleration kicks in. And things change very rapidly,” said lead scientist Sönke Dangendorf.

When Eglisa Arias Arias, a grandmother of two, moved to El Bosque alone, she was excited to have her own garden for the first time, and it was rarely troubled by the sea. Her house was flooded in a storm on Nov. 3 and she has rented an apartment a short drive inland.

“I miss everything. I miss all the noise of the sea. I mean the noise of this sea,” she said.

Swathes of the coast known as the Emerald Coast in the state of Veracruz are storm-battered, flooded and falling into the sea, and a quarter of neighboring Tabasco state will be inundated by 2050, according to one study.

Around the world, coastal communities facing similar slow-motion battles with the water have begun beating what is called "managed retreat.” Locals on the Gaspé peninsula of Quebec have been gradually fleeing the coast for over a decade, and just last year New Zealand’s government promised financial aid for some of the 70,000 homes it said will soon need to seek higher ground.

Very little, however, seems managed about the retreat from El Bosque. When the Xolo family fled their home on Nov. 21, they left in the middle of the night, all 10 children under a tarpaulin in pouring rain.

Now they practice math on an app. In the carcass of El Bosque’s primary school, attendance books are still on the floor with sodden pages and, in the preschool, alphabet cutouts cling to the wall.

First Áurea Sanchez, the Xolo family matriarch, took her family to a shelter at the local recreation center inland. Then, a few days later, a moving van arrived unannounced to remove the center’s only fridge and the shelter was closed.

“It can’t be,” Sanchez remembers thinking. “They can’t leave us without food without telling us right?”

Later that afternoon, an official arrived to announce the closure.

When The Associated Press visited El Bosque at the end of November, a moderate storm had flooded the one road to the community so that it was accessible only by foot, or motorbike. That same day the shelter was closed, apparently permanently, with papered-over windows and a government sign advertising “8 steps to protect your health in the event of a flood.”

The national housing department, responsible for operating the shelter, did not respond when asked why it was closed, or if it would reopen.

Meanwhile, new houses will not be ready before fall 2024, according to Raúl García, head of Tabasco’s urban development department, who added that, “I wish we could do it faster.”

Advocates, and García himself, said the process is too slow, and that Mexico needs new laws to cut through bureaucracy and quickly make money available for victims of climate change. Mexico does have a fund for climate adaptation, but for 2024 most of it will be spent on a train project already widely criticized for destroying parts of the Yucatan jungle.

Instead, President Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador, born just a few hours inland, has made oil development a key part of his nationalist platform. That might change if polls prove accurate and former Mexico City Mayor and accomplished scientist Claudia Sheinbaum is elected president next year. Despite being Lopéz Obrador’s protégé, she pledges to commit Mexico to sustainability, a promise which is more urgent than ever.

Since she fled her home on Nov 3. Arias spends some afternoons with her niece, helps her neighbors with the dishes or bakes upside-down pineapple cake with them. These are welcome distractions from the now-daily deliberation between buying food and paying rent.

More difficult still, however, are her memories of El Bosque and her home by the waves.

“I would go to sleep listening to the sea's noise and I would wake up with that, with that noise. I would always hear his noises and that’s why when I would talk to him I would tell him I know I’m going to miss you because with that noise you taught me how to love you.”

When the flood came for Arias’ house, she only asked the sea for enough time to collect her things, and it gave her that.

“And so, when I left there, I said goodbye to the sea. I gave him thanks for the time he was there for me.”


In El Bosque, a small fishing community in the Gulf of Mexico, a long, one-sided battle against the sea is nearly at an end. (Dec. 13) 

One storm away from total obliteration: Inside the Mexican town that’s being swallowed by the sea

Ruth Wright
Thu, December 14, 2023


“I would go to sleep listening to the sea’s noise. I would tell him [the sea] I know I’m going to miss you because with that noise you taught me how to love you.”

When the flood came for Eglisa Arias Arias’ house, she asked the sea for enough time to collect her things, and it gave her that.

“And so, when I left there, I said goodbye to the sea. I gave him thanks for the time he was there for me.”

Arias had to flee her home in the beachside town of El Bosque in early November. She was one of many who moved to the Gulf of Mexico in the 1980s in search of work, mostly in fishing.

Now less than a dozen residents are left as the ocean swallows up El Bosque due to brutal winter storms and some of the world's fastest rising sea levels.

By 2050 millions more Mexicans will be displaced by climate change, according to the Mayors Migration Council, a coalition researching internal migration.

An aerial view of the coastal community of El Bosque, in the state of Tabasco, Mexico, Thursday, Nov. 30, 2023 - AP Photo/Felix Marquez

Just one storm away from obliteration

El Bosque is a mass of twisted piles of concrete where houses used to be. Forced to flee the homes they built, locals have moved to rental properties, desperately awaiting government aid.

Guadalupe Cobos is one of the few still living in town. Residents’ relationship with the sea is “like a toxic marriage,” Cobos says, watching the waves.

“I love you when I’m happy, right? And when I’m angry I take away everything that I gave you,” she said.

Along with rapidly rising water levels, winter storms called "nortes” have moved the shoreline by more than 500m since 2005, according to Lilia Gama, coastal vulnerability researcher at Tabasco Juarez State University.

“Before, if a norte came in, it lasted one or two days,” said Gama. “The tide would come in, it would go up a little bit and it would go away.”

Now, fueled by warming air which can hold more moisture, winter storms stay for several days at a time.

Local scientists say one more powerful storm could destroy El Bosque for good. Relocation, slowed by bureaucracy and a lack of funding, is still months away.

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Mexico shoots itself in the foot with its oil industry

As the sun sets over the beach, Cobos, known as Doña Lupe to neighbours, points to a dozen small, orange stars on the horizon - oil platforms burning gas.

“There is money here,” she says, “but not for us.”

As El Bosque was settled, state oil company Pemex went on an exploration spree in the Gulf - tripling crude oil production and making Mexico into a major international exporter. The country has a new refinery planned in Tabasco, just 50 miles (80 kilometres) west of El Bosque.

Gulf of Mexico sea levels are already rising three times faster than the global average, according to a study co-authored by researchers from the UK, New Orleans, Florida and California this March.

Debris from collapsed home and felled trees litter the shore line of the coastal community of El Bosque, in the state of Tabasco, Mexico, Thursday, Nov. 30, 2023.

- AP Photo/Felix Marquez

Mexicans are being left behind

Coastal communities around the world facing similar slow-motion battles with the water, from Quebec to New Zealand, have begun beating a “managed retreat.”

Very little, however, seems managed about the retreat from El Bosque. When the Xolo family fled their home in late November they left in the middle of the night, all 10 children under a tarpaulin in pouring rain.

When the Associated Press visited El Bosque during a storm at the end of November, the community was accessible only on foot or motorbike.

Living in a ghost town: The Moldovans who refused to be climate migrants

Climate migrants: How even rich Bavaria cannot provide shelter from global warming

New houses will not be ready before fall 2024, says Raúl García, head of Tabasco’s urban development department, who himself said the process is too slow.

While advocates call for specific climate adaptation laws, President Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador, born just inland, has made oil development a key part of his platform.

That might change if former Mexico City Mayor and accomplished scientist Claudia Sheinbaum is elected president next year. Despite being Lopéz Obrador’s protégée, she pledges to commit Mexico to sustainability, a promise more urgent than ever.

APTOPIX Mexico Swallowed by the Sea
Debris from collapsed home and felled trees litter the shore line of the coastal community of El Bosque, in the state of Tabasco, Mexico, Thursday, Nov. 30, 2023. Flooding driven by a sea-level rise and increasingly brutal winter storms destroyed the Mexican community. 

(AP Photo/Felix Marquez)

James Patterson awards $500 bonuses to 600 employees at independent bookstores

Associated Press
Wed, December 13, 2023 

Author James Patterson poses for a portrait in New York

. . (Photo by Taylor Jewell/Invision/AP, File)

NEW YORK (AP) — Six hundred employees at independent bookstores — from Chapter One in Victoria, Minnesota, to The Cloak & Dagger in Princeton, New Jersey — will be receiving $500 holiday bonuses from author James Patterson.

Employees were able to nominate themselves, or be recommended by store owners, managers, peers, community members and others.

“I’ve said this before, but I can’t say it enough — booksellers save lives," Patterson said in a statement Wednesday. "What they do is crucial, especially right now. I’m happy to be able to acknowledge them and their hard work this holiday season.”

One of the world’s most popular and prolific writers, Patterson has given millions of dollars to booksellers, librarians and teachers. In 2015, the same year he began awarding employee bonuses, he was presented an honorary National Book Award for “Outstanding Service to the America Literary Community.”

Patterson has even co-authored a tribute book, “The Secret Lives of Booksellers and Librarians,” which Little, Brown and Company will release in April.

“We all continue to be awed by, and grateful for, Mr. Patterson’s continuing support of independent booksellers," Allison Hill, CEO of the American Booksellers Association, said in a statement. "It means so much to have him recognize the valuable role booksellers play in the industry and we appreciate his financial generosity as well as his generosity of spirit.”

China condemns Canada's support for Philippines on South China Sea incidents

Reuters
Wed, December 13, 2023 

Chinese militia vessels operate at Whitsun Reef in South China Sea

(Reuters) - China condemned Canada's support for the Philippines over what it said were violations of China's sovereignty in the South China Sea, according to a statement by a Chinese embassy spokesperson in Canada.

"The South China Sea is the common home of countries in the region and should not become a hunting ground for Canada, the United States and other countries to pursue their geopolitical interests," the statement said.

Over the past few months, China and the Philippines have had several confrontations centred around the Second Thomas Shoal, an atoll in the South China Sea.

"As a country outside the region, Canada has emboldened the Philippines' violation of China's sovereignty, violated the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter, and jeopardised regional peace and stability," the Canadian embassy spokesperson said.

Manila has accused Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels of repeatedly firing water cannon at its resupply boats and deliberately ramming a vessel near the disputed waters.

The United States has voiced opposition to the run-ins and sided with the Philippines.

Over the weekend, a confrontation in the disputed waters drew condemnation from Canada in a government statement denouncing "the actions taken by the People's Republic of China against Philippine civilian and government vessels in the South China Sea."

China, which claims nearly the entire South China Sea as its own, has repeatedly said Philippine vessels were encroaching on its national sovereignty.

(Reporting by Beijing newsroom; Writing by Bernard Orr; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Edmund Klamann)


Philippines summons Chinese ambassador over South China Sea 'harassment'

Reuters
Mon, December 11, 2023 

Chinese Coast Guard ship uses water cannon against a Filipino resupply vessel

MANILA (Reuters) -The Philippines' foreign ministry said on Tuesday it has summoned China's ambassador to Manila to protest "back-to-back harassments" in the South China Sea at the weekend, as longstanding geopolitical tensions continue in the strategic waterway.

Manila has asked China to direct its vessels to cease and desist from what it said were illegal actions and dangerous manoeuvres against Philippine vessels, and stop interfering in legitimate Philippine activities, the ministry said in a statement.

Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro verbally delivered the protest against the Chinese manoeuvres that led to a collision, and against use of water cannons against Philippine vessels sending supplies to troops stationed in an ageing warship at the Second Thomas Shoal.

"The actions of the Chinese vessels within the Philippine exclusive economic zone are illegal and violate the freedom of navigation," the ministry said.

It also protested China's use of water cannons against three fisheries bureau vessels on their way to send oil and groceries to fishermen near the Scarborough shoal.

The Chinese embassy in Manila did not immediately respond to request for comment.

The two neighbours traded accusations on Sunday, and the Philippines called China's actions a "serious escalation".

China's foreign ministry protested over what it said was a collision on Sunday, but the Philippines said Chinese coastguard and maritime militia repeatedly fired water cannons at its resupply boats, causing "serious engine damage" to one, and "deliberately" ramming another.

The United States, the Philippines' treaty ally, and the United Kingdom, both expressed support for the Philippines and condemned the actions of China, which claims sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea, a conduit for more than $3 trillion of annual ship-borne commerce.

The Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei, have competing claims. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2016 said China's claims had no legal basis.

(Reporting by Neil Jerome Morales and Karen Lema; Editing by Martin Petty, Kanupriya Kapoor and)