Tuesday, April 23, 2024

 

3 in 5 parents play short order cook for young children who don’t like family meal



Kids’ diets: Just 1 in 3 parents think the standard American diet is healthy but few try alternatives; 1 in 8 pressure kids to eat everything on their plate




MICHIGAN MEDICINE - UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN

Picky eating was parents' top challenge in getting kids to eat healthy 

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PARENTS DESCRIBE THEIR BIGGEST CHALLENGES WITH MAKING SURE THEIR CHILD GETS A HEALTHY DIET AS THE CHILD BEING A PICKY EATER, THE HIGHER COST OF HEALTHY FOOD AND FOOD WASTE. FEWER SAY THEY DON’T HAVE TIME TO PREPARE HEALTHY FOOD.

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CREDIT: SARA SCHULTZ, UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN HEALTH C.S. MOTT CHILDREN’S HOSPITAL NATIONAL POLL ON CHILDREN’S HEALTH




While most parents of preschool and elementary aged children strive to give their children a balanced, nutritional diet, some of their strategies to promote healthy eating may backfire, a national poll suggests.

A top example from the report: Three in five parents customize meals if their child doesn’t like what everyone else is eating.

Meanwhile, one in eight parents require children to eat everything on their plate, according to the University of Michigan Health C.S. Mott Children’s Hospital National Poll on Children’s Health. And while just one in three believe the standard American diet is healthy for kids, few have tried alternative, potentially more nutritional menus at home.

“Feeding young children can be difficult due to general pickiness, hesitancy to try unfamiliar foods and constantly evolving food preferences,” said Mott Poll co-director and Mott pediatrician Susan Woolford, M.D.

“The preschool and elementary age is an important time to establish healthy eating patterns. Yet parents’ concern about whether their child is eating enough or if they’re getting the nutrients they need may lead them to adopt practices that actually sabotage their efforts to get kids to have healthy eating habits in the short and long term.”  

The nationally representative report is based on 1,083 responses of parents of children ages 3-10 surveyed in February.

More on poll findings:

Parents’ beliefs on nutritional diets vary

Just a third of parents think the standard American diet is healthy compared to half who seem to rank the Mediterranean higher in nutritional value. Still, few have tried alternative diets for their child.

“Parents may recognize the standard diet in the U.S. includes high amounts of saturated fats, added sugars, sodium, and refined carbohydrates, which can generate an excess intake of calories beyond nutritional needs and contribute to health problems,” Woolford said.

“However, despite this recognition and evidence suggesting that other diet options may help avoid many illnesses, only about 9% have tried the Mediterranean diet for their children and fewer have tried giving their children a vegetarian diet.”

Parents should ensure children are still getting adequate nutrition if they do try diets that eliminate certain food categories, she adds. Diets that limit animal products, for example, will require alternative protein sources such as meat substitutes, tofu, or legumes for children.

And while ketogenic diets have become popular among adults, they are generally not appropriate for children.

Family dining rules may promote or hinder a child’s healthy diet.

Fifteen percent of parents say their family rule is that kids finish what’s on their plate, while more than half say children must try some of everything and a little less than a third say no to dessert if meals go unfinished.

But parents who try to force kids to eat may encourage portions that go beyond feeling full, Woolford cautions.

“Requiring children to eat everything on their plate, or withholding dessert unless all other foods are eaten, can lead to overconsumption, especially if portion sizes are too large for the child’s age,” she said.

She agrees with the recommendation that “parents provide, and the child decides.” This makes parents responsible for providing healthy options while allowing children to select which foods they will eat and the amount they want to consume.

Parents often play personal chef

Sixty percent of parents will make something separate if their child doesn’t like the food that’s on the dinner table – and this often leads to a less healthy alternative, Woolford says.

“Rather than allowing the child to choose an alternate menu, parents should provide a balanced meal with at least one option that their child is typically willing to eat,” she said.

“Then if their child chooses not to eat, parents should not worry as this will not cause healthy children any harm and they will be more likely to eat the options presented at the next meal.”

She points out that children learn through watching and imitating, so it’s beneficial for parents to model healthy eating through a well-balanced diet while their child’s eating habits and taste preferences mature.

Avoiding snacks between meals may also help children have a better appetite and increase willingness to eat offered foods.

Picky eating and protesting veggies among biggest battles

Parents describe their biggest challenges with making sure their child gets a healthy diet as the child being a picky eater, the higher cost of healthy food and food waste. Fewer say they don’t have time to prepare healthy food.

Nearly all parents polled report trying at least one strategy to get their child to eat vegetables as part of a healthy diet, such as serving vegetables every day, fixing vegetables how their child prefers, trying vegetables their child hasn’t had before and letting children pick out vegetables at the grocery store.

Others involve children with preparing the vegetables, hide vegetables in other foods or offer a reward for finishing vegetables.

“Unsurprisingly, parents said pickiness and getting kids to eat veggies were among major challenges during mealtimes,” Woolford said.   

“Parents should try to include children in meal decisions, avoid pressuring food consumption and provide a variety of healthy options at each meal so kids feel more control.”

Right sizing food may be difficult

Portion size is key to mitigating the risk of childhood obesity, but it can be hard for parents to “right-size” a child portion.

In determining portion size for their child, nearly 70% of parents polled give their child slightly less than adults in the family while fewer let their child choose how much to take, use predetermined portions from the package or give their child the same portions as adults.

Woolford recommends parents seek sources to help. The U.S. Department of Agriculture, for example, provides a visual called “MyPlate” that can help parents estimate the recommended balance of the major food groups and offers guidance on estimating portion size.

Healthy eating starts at the grocery store

When grocery shopping or planning meals, parents polled say they try to limit the amount of certain foods to help their child to maintain a healthy diet, with more than half limiting foods with added sugars and processed foods.

But it may be difficult to identify unhealthy food. Added sugars or processing may be present in foods marketed or packaged as healthy, Woolford says.

Parents should read labels, avoiding the marketing on the front of packages and focusing instead on the details on the back. They should pay particular attention to nutrition information and ingredient lists – especially if they’re long with unrecognizable items – as well as sodium, added sugars, and fat.

Woolford also encourages involving children in grocery trips, spending time in the produce section and asking them what they may like to try.

“Have them help in the process of choosing the healthiest options, not ones that necessarily directly advertise to children, but foods that they are willing to try that are lower in sugar, fat and salt,” she said.

“Spend most of the time in the produce section and try to make it fun by maybe selecting new options from different parts of the world that they haven't tried before.”

 

What do you know about measles and vaccination?




CANADIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL




With measles cases rising in Canada and internationally, it is important for clinicians to understand the disease and the role of vaccination against measles. Two practice articles in CMAJ (Canadian Medical Association Journalhttps://www.cmaj.ca/lookup/doi/10.1503/cmaj.240415 https://www.cmaj.ca/lookup/doi/10.1503/cmaj.240371

provide succinct overviews of this highly infectious disease. Many clinicians may not have direct experience with measles diagnosis and treatment as Canada achieved measles elimination status in 1998.

“The increase in measles activity globally and in Canada is a reminder of the importance of immunization. Routine childhood vaccines, including measles, that were missed during the COVID-19 pandemic should be urgently caught up. Clinicians should also be on the alert for measles when evaluating patients, especially those with a history of travel or those who might have been exposed in local outbreaks,” says author Dr. Sarah Wilson, a physician at Public Health Ontario.

Measles is one of the most contagious respiratory infectious diseases. Individuals with measles develop fever, cough, runny nose, and conjunctivitis. A rash that starts on the face and spreads throughout the body can then follow, about 4 days later. Complications from measles infection are reported in 30% of cases. These can include ear infections, pneumonia, pregnancy complications, and neurologic complications, including encephalitis. Measles can also cause temporary secondary immunodeficiency. Most measles cases in Canada occur in unvaccinated people, especially children.

Given how infectious measles is, health care providers should pre-emptively contact health care facilities if they are referring suspect cases to be evaluated or tested, to ensure that appropriate infection prevention and control measures are used to avoid exposing other patients and staff. 

Despite effective vaccination programs, measles outbreaks are increasing, emphasizing the need for heightened vaccination efforts. The Canadian Immunization Guide recommends the administration of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine for all individuals in Canada, with specific dosing schedules and catch-up recommendations.

For travel or outbreaks, MMR vaccination can occur beyond standard schedules, with guidelines provided for accelerated vaccination and postexposure prophylaxis. Adults without measles immunity or vaccination records can receive 1–2 doses of the MMR vaccine, depending on their age, travel history, and risk factors. The MMR vaccine is safe and effective. However, individuals with immunocompromised conditions require careful consideration.

“Measles is highly contagious and making a comeback worldwide. The measles vaccine is effective and safe. However, those who are immunocompromised or pregnant are not able to receive it. Herd immunity through mass vaccination is therefore critically important. Our paper summarizes who should get the vaccine outside of the typically recommended schedule, particularly children, who are particularly vulnerable to measles complications. We also provide guidance for adults to receive 1 or more doses of the vaccine, depending on their year of birth, travel or residence in an area affected by outbreaks, and occupation,” says Dr. Samira Jeimy, program director and assistant professor, Clinical Immunology and Allergy, Western University, London, Ontario.

 

How do crop–livestock systems transform to Agricultural Green Development in the basin?



HIGHER EDUCATION PRESS
Graphical abstract 

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GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

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CREDIT: XIAOMENG ZHANG , XIANGWEN FAN , WENQI MA , ZHAOHAI BAI , JIAFA LUO, JING YANG , LING LIU , JIANJIE ZHANG , LIN MA





Excessive nitrogen input into agriculture systems has caused environmental problems such as atmospheric pollution, loss of biodiversity and degradation of water. Meanwhile, the development of intensive animal farming has further caused the separation between crop and livestock sectors, leading to additional hotspot areas prone to pollutant discharge. The nutrient management optimization program also addresses the multi-objective challenges within the food system, incorporating the concept of Agricultural Green Development (AGD). In the pursuit of AGD, the quality of both human living environment (habitation) and the natural environment (including water, air and soil) become highly important. However, when nutrient management aims to simultaneously protect soil, water and the atmosphere, conflicts may arise. These conflicts often result from the complicated interplay between measures targeting air or water loss and the necessary adjustments required in different spatial areas. However, optimized management of crop–livestock systems that use multi-objective zoning is lacking.

Associate Professor Wenqi Ma from Hebei Agricultural University and Professor Lin Ma from Agricultural Resources Research Center, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, as well as their research teams, took the Baiyangdian Basin as a typical case study to establish a multi-objective zoning method, and explore the optimal approach of nutrient management for the green transformation of agricultural in Basins. By using the NUFER (nutrient flows in food chains, environment and resources use) model, quantify the thresholds for these environmental indicators and determine the current levels of environmental emissions in the Baiyangdian Basin; and analyze different scenarios and their potential for reducing environmental impacts, thus realizing AGD.

The study considered a range of environmental indicators that directly impact human health, the production of high-quality goods, and environmental characteristics. And identified four specific indicators, namely ammonia volatilization, surplus nitrogen, soil carrying capacity and ecological red line areas, which are pivotal for optimizing the crop–livestock systems. A correlation between ammonia emission and PM2.5 was established through the utilization of geographically weighted regression analysis. The ammonia volatilization threshold was further calculated according to population density. Nitrogen surplus in the basin was determined by overlaying the grid maps representing slope and river distance in the Baiyangdian Basin. The threshold value of nitrogen surplus is determined by the value of nitrogen in the watershed and the critical value of runoff or leaching in the nitrate vulnerable zone within the county. Soil carrying capacity refers to the ratio of nitrogen excreted by livestock to the nitrogen harvested by crops in the area. The critical value is when the nitrogen excreted by livestock and the nitrogen harvested by crops reach a balance. Then, according to the comparison between the current situation and the threshold value, areas that exceeded the threshold are classified as high, while areas that were below the threshold value are classified as low. Divided into eight categories of areas. Each representing a unique combination of the three indicators, along with one ecological red line area.

To explore ways to optimize nutrient management, three scenarios were developed to evaluate potential emission reductions: (1) CS, the current situation scenario in which a comprehensive assessment of environmental indicators in the Baiyangdian Basin was made based on statistical data; (2) UT, the government’s highly-recommended unified management technology in which the whole region adopts the model of integrating agriculture and livestock, mainly promoted by the state, to facilitate the recycling of nutrients in crop–livestock systems, aiming to reduce nutrient input requirements and promote efficient nutrient recycling; and (3) ZM, a management technology applications based on zoning partition management which is based on the unified policy, targeted emission reduction technologies are employed for zone-specific optimal management based on the distinctive characteristics of each zone. Based on the above results, it can be seen that after implementing UT, the proportion of counties within safe districts increased from 8% to 21%, while the high-risk zone (double-high zone) only decreased by less than 6%. Continuing with further application of ZM, over 55% of the counties in the Baiyangdian Basin have achieved more environmentally-friendly emissions, with all three indicators falling within the threshold values. However, there are still some areas that exceed the safety threshold. Specifically, 10.5% of counties continued to have high ammonia emissions, 18.4% have high nitrogen surplus and 15.8% have both. The multi-objective zonal management optimization approach was more helpful to realize the environmental green emission of the crop–livestock systems in basins.

This system approach not only provides an effective way to address the challenges in Baiyangdian Basin, but also offers a potential way to meet the current challenges in agricultural systems in China, and thereby help the country to transform to a more environmentally-friendly agriculture systems. Agriculture transformed in such a way can protect natural resources, reduce pollution and improve resource use efficiency, while maintaining food security.

This study has been published on the Journal of Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering in Volume 11, Issue 1, 2024, DOI:10.15302/J-FASE-2023533.

 

New sensing checks for 3D printed products could overhaul manufacturing sector



UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL


A sensing technology that can assess the quality of components in fields such as aerospace could transform UK industry.

In the study, published today in the journal Waves in Random and Complex Media, researchers from the University of Bristol have derived a formula that can inform the design boundaries for a given component’s geometry and material microstructure.

A commercially viable sensing technology and associated imaging algorithm to assess the quality of such components currently does not exist. If the additive manufacturing (3D Printing) of metallic components could satisfy the safety and quality standards in industries there could be significant commercial advantages in the manufacturing sector.

The key breakthrough is the use of ultrasonic array sensors, which are essentially the same as those used in medical imaging in, for example, creating images of babies in the womb. However, these new laser based versions would not require the sensor to be in contact with the material.

Author Professor Anthony Mulholland, head of the School of Engineering Maths and Technology, explained: “There is a potential sensing method using a laser based ultrasonic array and we are using mathematical modelling to inform the design of the this equipment ahead of its in situ deployment.”

The team built a mathematical model that incorporated the physics of ultrasonic waves propagating through a layered (as additively manufactured) metallic material, which took into account the variability one gets between each manufactured component. 

The mathematical formula is made up of the design parameters associated with the ultrasonic laser and the nature of the particular material. The output is a measure of how much information will be produced by the sensor to enable the mechanical integrity of the component to be assessed.  The input parameters can then be varied to maximise this information content.

It is hoped their discovery will accelerate the design and deployment of this proposed solution to this manufacturing opportunity. 

Professor Mullholland added: “We can then work with our industry partners to produce a means of assessing the mechanical integrity of these safety critical components at the manufacturing stage. 

“This could then lead to radically new designs (by taking full advantage of 3D printing), quicker and more cost effective production processes, and significant commercial and economic advantage to UK manufacturing.”

Now the team plan to use the findings to help their experimental collaborators who are designing and building the laser based ultrasonic arrays.

These sensors will then be deployed in situ by robotic arms in a controlled additive manufacturing environment. They will maximise the information content in the data produced by the sensor and create bespoke imaging algorithms to generate tomographic images of the interior of components supplied by their industry partners. Destructive means will then be employed to assess the quality of the tomographic images produced.

Professor Mullholland concluded: “Opening up 3D printing in the manufacture of safety critical components, such as those found in the aerospace industry, would provide significant commercial advantage to UK industry. 

“The lack of a means of assessing the mechanical integrity of such components is the major blockage in taking this exciting opportunity forward.  This study has built a mathematical model that simulates the use of a new laser based sensor, that could provide the solution to this problem, and this study will accelerate the sensor’s design and deployment.”

 

Paper:

‘A probabilistic approach to modelling ultrasonic shear wave propagation in locally anisotropic heterogeneous media’ by A.S Ferguson, K.M.M Tant, M Foondun and A.J Mulholland in Waves in Random and Complex Media.

Feedback loop that is melting ice shelves in West Antarctica revealed



UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON





New research has uncovered a feedback loop that may be accelerating the melting of the floating portions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, pushing up global sea levels.

The study, published in Science Advances, sheds new light on the mechanisms driving the melting of ice shelves beneath the surface of the ocean, which have been unclear until now.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been losing mass in recent decades, contributing to global sea level rise. If it were to melt entirely, global sea levels would rise by around five meters.

It’s known that Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW), a water mass that is up to 4°C above local freezing temperatures, is flowing beneath the ice shelves in West Antarctica and melting them from below. Since so much of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet lies below sea level, it is particularly vulnerable to this warm water intrusion and may further retreat in the future.

Previous observations and models have revealed that eastward undercurrents are transporting this warm water to cavities under the ice shelves. Despite its significance, the mechanism driving this undercurrent has remained elusive.

Professor Alberto Naveira Garabato, from the University of Southampton, a coauthor of the paper, says: “Our findings suggest a positive feedback loop: as the ice shelf melts more rapidly, more freshwater is produced, leading to a stronger undercurrent and more heat being transported toward the ice shelves.”

“This cycle could speed up the melting of ice shelves, potentially making the West Antarctic Ice Sheet less stable in the future."

Researchers from the University of California Los Angeles, MIT and the University of Southampton, used high-resolution simulations to investigate the dynamics of the undercurrent.

Dr Alessandro Silvano from the University of Southampton, a coauthor on the study, said: “These simulations reveal that this deep current conveying warm waters toward the ice shelves is driven by the very same ice shelf melting that such warm waters cause.”

Their models suggest that when the warm CDW interacts with the ice shelf, it melts the ice and mixes with the lighter, melted freshwater.

This water then rises through the layers of water above it. As it does, it spreads out and stretches the layer of CDW vertically. This stretching creates a swirling motion in the water.

If there's a trough (a kind of underwater valley) near the coast, this swirling motion is then carried away from the ice shelf cavity toward the edge of the shelf by the movement of pressure within the water. This movement helps drive a current along the slope of the seafloor, directing more warm water toward the ice shelf.

The underwater current forms a bit farther away from the ice shelf, so as more ice melts, the current gets stronger, carrying even more warm water toward the ice shelf.

Dr Silvano added: “Scientific models that don't include the cavities under ice shelves are probably overlooking this positive feedback loop. Our results suggest it's an important factor that could affect how quickly ice shelves melt and how stable the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is over time.”

Antarctic Slope Undercurrent and onshore heat transport driven by ice shelf melting is published in Science Advances and is available online.

The research was funded by the National Science Foundation and the Natural Environment Research Council.

Ends

Contact

Steve Williams, Media Manager, University of Southampton, press@soton.ac.uk or 023 8059 3212.

Notes for editors

  1. Antarctic Slope Undercurrent and onshore heat transport driven by ice shelf melting is published in Science Advances and is available here: https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/sciadv.adl0601
  2. For Interviews with Professor Alberto Naveira Garabato and Dr Alessandro Silvano please contact Steve Williams, Media Manager, University of Southampton press@soton.ac.uk or 023 8059 3212.

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Toward a unified theory for dynamics of glassy materials



SCIENCE CHINA PRESS
Unified scaling for relaxation in disordered system. 

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A SCALING RELATION BETWEEN THE NEW THEORETICAL ORDER PARAMETER IS DMIN AND THE RELAXATION DAMPING PHASE ANGLE (ALSO KNOWN AS INTERNAL FRICTION IN MATERIALS SCIENCES). THE DATA COVER 5 ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE IN TIMESCALE.

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CREDIT: ©SCIENCE CHINA PRESS





In the realm of disorder and amorphous systems, such as oxide glasses utilized in display technologies and the cryogenic preservation of biological materials, there exists a substantial body of contemporary scientific and technological exploration. A distinguishing feature of disordered materials is the presence of intricate dynamic behaviors, known as relaxation processes, which span from atomic vibrations on the picosecond timescale to aging and densification processes that can extend over thousands of years. These relaxation processes play a pivotal role in shaping the diverse properties of glassy materials. Recent research in the field of glass science has brought to light a variety of specific dynamic phenomena within glassy materials, prompting researchers to seek a unifying principle that can elucidate these processes across a wide spectrum of materials.

Hai-Bin Yu from Huazhong University of China and Konrad Samwer from the University of Gottingen recognized the absence of a comprehensive theoretical framework for understanding relaxation dissipation in disordered systems. Rising to the challenge, they proposed an novel perspective to tackle this issue. While previous studies typically delved into the relaxation dynamics of individual particles within glassy materials, Yu and Samwer opted to view the system as a whole, focusing on the overarching patterns of inherent structures. This novel approach sheds light on the complex challenges in the field. Embracing this concept, they introduced a global order parameter, termed the inherent structure minimal displacement (IS Dmin), to measure the variability of configurations using a pattern-matching methodology.

By conducting atomic simulations on seven model glass-forming liquids, they were able to unify the impacts of temperature, pressure, and perturbation time on relaxation dissipation through a scaling law linking the mechanical damping factor to IS Dmin. They elucidated that this scaling law is a reflection of the curvature of the local potential energy landscape. Consequently, they successfully identified a universal foundation for glassy relaxation, proposing that the variability of configurations, as quantified by IS Dmin  uniquely determines the relaxation damping.

This landmark work not only presents an innovative approach to studying disordered systems but also serves as an inspiration, showcasing the potential of advanced pattern-matching techniques as potent tools for analyzing complex systems.

###

See the article:

Universal origin of glassy relaxation as recognized by configuration pattern-matching

https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwae091

 

Planning at multiple scales for healthy corals and communities



STANFORD UNIVERSITY





Governments in the Mesoamerican Reef region are exploring the use of nature-based solutions to strengthen coral health and societal benefits for coastal communities. A new study led by Stanford researchers in collaboration with scientists from the World Wildlife Fund, the Healthy Reefs Initiative, and others from the Smart Coasts project quantified the outcomes of different watershed interventions to support coral health at regional versus national scales, and identified target areas that could improve both ecosystem and societal benefits nationally and across the region.

The nature-based approaches evaluated as key watershed (e.g., drainage area) interventions include ecosystem restoration or protection, and sustainable agriculture. Yet determining which areas to target for these interventions requires understanding the complex relationships between terrestrial and marine ecosystems, also known as “land-sea linkages,” their benefits to people, and the spatial scale being considered.

This work pushed the boundaries of how scientists analyze biophysical and ecological relationships, using cutting-edge optimization models (for the first time in a coastal context) of how to maximize benefits – and to whom – while meeting spatial or resource constraints.

“To restore nature – in this case, a large barrier reef – international collaborative actions at a large scale are what will really help,” said Jade Delevaux, the study’s lead author and senior fellow at Stanford’s Natural Capital Project. “At the same time, if you want to support coastal communities’ resilience by protecting properties and infrastructure along the coast or tourism-based livelihoods – you’re probably making decisions on a smaller scale.”

The research focused on illuminating some of these trade-offs for decision-makers and seeking places where there might be win-wins for the environment and people.

Land-sea connections

Healthy coral reefs provide essential economic, social, and environmental benefits to the communities that depend on them. These include coastal protection from storms, climate regulation, nature-driven tourism, and fisheries that feed communities.

While marine ecosystems can be affected by human activities in the ocean, like dredging or aquaculture, or natural hazards such as hurricanes, they are also affected by the health of upstream terrestrial ecosystems. Intensified deforestation in mangroves and tropical forests is a key factor, as it worsens pollution and carbon emissions on land. It also leads to sediment runoff from loss of their root systems, which harms downstream coastal water quality and consequently coral reef health.

The coastal and marine ecosystems of the Mesoamerican Reef stretch over 1,000 kilometers, establishing it as the largest transboundary barrier reef system in the Northern Hemisphere. Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras, three countries in the region, significantly affect the reef through human activities that impact the coastal watersheds. Yet these watersheds don’t always align with political boundaries, complicating policy interventions.

“It would be hard to justify, even scientifically, asking Guatemala or Honduras to finance watershed interventions if most of the benefits are accrued by the people in Belize,” said Delevaux. “That’s when we asked the question: if you were to manage watersheds with an eye towards supporting both people and climate resilience, would you target the same areas as you would if you were solely focused on coral reef health?”

Mapping benefits across scales

To answer that question, researchers and local partners identified target areas where three key watershed interventions could be implemented: restoration of agricultural land to native forest; protection of existing forest; and sustainable agriculture – converting conventional agriculture and ranching to agroforestry and silvopasture.

“It was amazing to see the level of coordination and collaboration happening while covering such a large geographic area. The communities’ knowledge, needs, and questions really influenced the science through the many workshops, participatory mapping exercises, and capacity trainings we held to gather the information for these analyses,” said Delevaux. “I’d say that part of the work was really inspiring, because you see how it’s going to be used firsthand.”

Then, using InVEST ecosystem services models, Delevaux and colleagues quantified the effects of different interventions in different target areas on coral health through sediment retention. They found that the most important target areas for coastal communities – where interventions would maximize societal benefits like tourism, fisheries, and coastal protection – changed depending on whether they prioritized a regional- versus national-scale scale approach.

Sediment retention and coral health improve the most in models prioritizing regional interventions that target larger, transnational watersheds. A national emphasis on smaller, non-transboundary watersheds lined by reefs provides more localized societal benefits.

“At the regional scale, across countries, we found we have the best opportunities for making investments in watersheds that are going to help reduce sedimentation and increase coral health across the region,” said Katie Arkema, senior fellow at the Natural Capital Project and senior scientist at the Pacific Northwest National Lab, with a joint appointment at the School of Marine Environmental Affairs at the University of Washington. “At the national scale, we can make investments that are going to really specifically benefit the coastal communities in that country through those societal ecosystem service benefits,” said Arkema.

While the study results show trade-offs between regional coral health and country-level societal benefits, there were also some interventions that prioritized similar target areas in both.

“These spatially explicit results are empowering for both local and regional managers. A donor or investor might be interested in improving reef health in a specific reef area or Marine Protected Area and could use these results to target the watersheds that yield maximum improvement in their focal area. A national government could determine the best set of interventions and watersheds that maximize both social and ecological benefits,” said Melanie McField, co-author, founder, and director of the Healthy Reefs for Healthy People Initiative.

“The model can also quantify the regional reef and social benefit to cooperative work in the major watersheds, supporting potential large-scale multi-national conservation efforts.”

Co-creating for the future

Researchers co-designed the study with local partners, including Healthy Reefs for Healthy People, and locally based affiliates of the World Wildlife Fund.

In Honduras, the results of the study are helping to guide investments in watershed restoration through replanting mangrove forests to minimize sediment runoff.

For Belizeans in Placencia, these results add to almost two decades of support for mangrove-forward development between the Natural Capital Project, WWF, Belize Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute (CZMAI), and others. Delevaux also continues to work with communities in Placencia, Belize through an NSF project to find equitable nature-based solutions like mangrove restoration and conservation at the local level.

“It can be useful to emphasize for decision-makers that we do have some quantitative models and tools that can help support the kinds of decisions they have to make on where to direct funds. [Our research] can help provide insights into how the decisions that they make today might influence what happens in the future,” said Arkema.

Additional Stanford co-authors include ecosystem services analyst Jess Silver and senior GIS analyst Stacie Wolny, both affiliated with the Natural Capital Project. Additional co-authors are from Seascape Solutions LLC; the University of Washington; World Wildlife Fund-Mesoamerica; World Wildlife Fund, Mexico; World Wildlife Fund, Washington, D.C., USA; Sound GIS; Healthy Reefs for Healthy People; and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

This study was funded by the International Climate Initiative (IKI) Smart Coasts; the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; the National Science Foundation Coastline and People prime agreement; the Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation, the Summit Foundation, and CORESCCAM BNP-PARIBAS foundation.

 

AI weather forecasts captured Ciaran’s destructive path




UNIVERSITY OF READING





Artificial intelligence (AI) can quickly and accurately predict the path and intensity of major storms, a new study has demonstrated.

The research, based on an analysis of November 2023’s Storm Ciaran, suggests weather forecasts that use machine learning can produce predictions of similar accuracy to traditional forecasts faster, cheaper, and using less computational power.

Published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, the University of Reading study highlights the rapid progress and transformative potential of AI in weather prediction.

Professor Andrew Charlton-Perez, who led the study, said: “AI is transforming weather forecasting before our eyes. Two years ago, modern machine learning techniques were rarely being applied to make weather forecasts. Now we have multiple models that can produce 10-day global forecasts in minutes.

“There is a great deal we can learn about AI weather forecasts by stress-testing them on extreme events like Storm Ciarán. We can identify their strengths and weaknesses and guide the development of even better AI forecasting technology to help protect people and property. This is an exciting and important time for weather forecasting.”

Promise and pitfalls

To understand the effectiveness of AI-based weather models, scientists from the University of Reading compared AI and physics-based forecasts of Storm Ciarán - a deadly windstorm that hit northern and central Europe in November 2023 which claimed 16 lives in northern Europe and left more than a million homes without power in France.

The researchers used four AI models and compared their results with traditional physics-based models. The AI models, developed by tech giants like Google, Nvidia and Huawei, were able to predict the storm's rapid intensification and track 48 hours in advance. To a large extent, the forecasts were ‘indistinguishable’ from the performance of conventional forecasting models, the researchers said. The AI models also accurately captured the large-scale atmospheric conditions that fuelled Ciarán's explosive development, such as its position relative to the jet stream – a narrow corridor of strong high-level winds.

The machine learning technology underestimated the storm's damaging winds, however. All four AI systems underestimated Ciarán's maximum wind speeds, which in reality gusted at speeds of up to 111 knots at Pointe du Raz, Brittany. The authors were able to show that this underestimation was linked to some of the features of the storm, including the temperature contrasts near its centre, that were not well predicted by the AI systems.

To better protect people from extreme weather like Storm Ciaran, the researchers say further investigation of the use of AI in weather prediction is urgently needed. Development of machine learning models could mean artificial intelligence is routinely used in weather prediction in the near future, saving forecasters time and money.