Is experiencing extreme weather events linked to climate action?
SWPS University
Could experiencing devastating floods, widespread wildfires, or record-breaking heatwaves be linked to the way people perceive climate action? Do people in different countries attribute these events to climate change? An international team of researchers investigated how such experiences translated into support for climate regulations across the world, and published a paper on this topic in the prestigious journal Nature Climate Change.
An international team of researchers - including social psychologist Olga Białobrzeska, PhD, from the Faculty of Psychology at SWPS University in Warsaw, and psychologist Michał Parzuchowski, PhD, a professor at the Faculty of Psychology, SWPS University in Sopot - investigated how extreme weather events and their connection to climate change are linked to support for widely discussed climate regulations in 68 countries.
Extreme weather events and their high costs
Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (defined as events that are rare at a particular place and time of year). The cost of extreme weather events attributable to climate change is estimated at US$143 billion per year. The impacts of extreme weather events are disproportionately felt in the Global South, which includes the less rich countries of Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. Even though the Global South is at greater risk, attribution studies and social science research on human responses to such events overwhelmingly focus on countries and populations in the Global North.
So far, global efforts to slow climate change and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events have been insufficient, which calls for more stringent climate policies. Public support for climate policies is important because such support can drive governmental policy outputs, and policymakers often respond to public demand for climate policies.
Previous studies on the relationship between experiencing extreme weather events and climate change action and beliefs have produced inconsistent findings. In particular, some studies have found that experiencing extreme weather events increases climate change belief, concern, support for climate policies, while other studies found no relationship.
Another important factor is whether people attribute extreme weather events to climate change. Recent studies have shown that people who do are more likely to perceive climate change as a risk and to engage in mitigation efforts.
How are extreme events perceived?
In the latest study, researchers combined data on exposed populations computed using the probabilistic CLIMADA risk modelling platform with global survey data on subjective attribution of extreme weather events and support for climate policies collected in the "Trust in Science and Science-related Populism (TISP)" study. They considered 68 countries.
The researchers analysed whether exposure to extreme weather events was related to climate policy support, and wherther people felt that these events were caused by climate change. They also measured the level of public support for climate policies across countries, to what degree people attributed extreme weather events to climate change across countries, and whether this attribution affected policy support.
The study showed that a significant proportion of respondents supported climate regulations and attributed severe weather events to climate change. The study's main finding was surprising: support for climate regulations was determined not by exposure to weather events as such, but by personal beliefs about the causes of these events.
The perceived links between weather events and climate change were accompanied by higher support for five widely discussed climate policies: increasing taxes on carbon-intensive foods (such as beef and dairy); increasing taxes on fossil fuels (oil, coal); expanding infrastructure for public transportation; increasing the use of sustainable energy; and protecting forested and land areas.
The study results suggest significant differences in public support depending on the type of climate action. In line with previous research, increasing carbon taxes received the lowest support (with only 22% of respondents supporting higher taxes on carbon-intensive foods, and 29% supporting higher taxes on fossil fuels). Protecting forested and land areas, by contrast, was a popular policy option, supported by 82% of respondents.
Support for climate change varies significantly between countries. The highest levels of support were recorded in African and Asian countries, average levels in Australia, Costa Rica, and the United Kingdom. Poland was slightly below the global average, while Russia and Czechia closed the list. Younger, more religious, better educated, and more affluent men, living in cities, expressed their support for climate policy more often.
Our research shows that simply experiencing extreme weather events like storms, heatwaves, or hurricanes does not automatically increase support for climate policy. What matters most is whether people attribute these events to climate change. When people see these weather events as caused by global warming, they become more supportive of climate action, regardless of how often such events actually occur in their surroundings. However, it's also possible that people who already support climate policies are more likely to blame extreme weather on climate change. We need longitudinal studies to better understand the direction of this relationship, notes Michał Parzuchowski.
The paper "Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world" was published in Nature Climate Change.
Journal
Nature Climate Change
Method of Research
Survey
Subject of Research
People
Article Title
Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world
Climate change is supercharging Europe’s biggest hail
Warming may lead to less frequent but bigger and more devastating hail storms, new research has shown.
Climate experts from Newcastle University, the Met Office and the University of Bristol used European-wide km-scale simulations to model future changes to hail with global warming. Published in the journal Nature Communications, the findings show that, under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), severe hail is likely to become less common, except potentially for very large hail.
Severe hail has a diameter of 2 cm, while a diameter of 5 cm or more is considered very large. Bigger hailstones cause more damage than smaller ones, and even a small increase in their size could outweigh any benefits from having fewer hailstorms overall.
The researchers attribute this decrease to more than one factor. Hail forms higher in the atmosphere as it warms, where storm updrafts could be weaker, and this gives hail more time to melt before reaching the ground. Another factor is the weakening large scale circulation, affecting the vertical profile of winds and leading to environments not beneficial for thunderstorm organization.
Importantly, the authors found that future warm seasons feature a warmer thunderstorm type similar to hail-producing storms found in the tropics, where the largest hailstones can still reach the surface. The findings suggest that, in the future, these storms will become most frequent over southern Europe, leading to regional increases in severe hail frequency.
Study lead author, Dr Abdullah Kahraman, Senior Researcher in Severe Weather and Climate Change, School of Engineering, Newcastle University and long-term Visiting Scientist at Climate Processes and Projections (CPP), Met Office Hadley Centre, said: “Our findings indicate that the effects of climate change on severe thunderstorms are more complex than previously thought, and high-resolution models can produce results that differ significantly from earlier research. Society may need to prepare for less frequent, yet more damaging hail events locally, in a 5-degree warmer future.”
Professor Lizzie Kendon, Head of Climate Projections at the UK Met Office and Professor of Climate Science at the University of Bristol, noted: “These results are very concerning. They imply we need to be prepared for tropical-type hailstorms impacting Europe in the future, associated with very large hailstones that can cause severe impacts. This possibility also extends to the UK, although the risk of hail here remains low into the future.”
Study co-author, Professor Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts, Newcastle University School of Engineering, added: “As a society we need to be better prepared for unprecedented extreme events and this study shows that future storms in the Mediterranean could bring giant hail, with devastating impacts. Recent hailstorms have caused significant direct damage to properties and infrastructure, crops, and even aircraft!”
The team’s analysis shows that the possibility for very large hailstones decreases around Central Europe, and that it remains low over the British Isles and Northern Europe land areas. In contrast, it increases in Southern Europe in autumn and winter, balancing decreases in summer and spring.
The occurrence of warm-type thunderstorms in Southern Europe in a future warmer climate could amplify the impact of hailstorms in Italy and surrounding areas, with overall more frequent significant severe hail.
The authors acknowledge the uncertainty regarding the effect of enhanced melting associated with higher freezing levels on the largest hailstones. They recommend further studies of these warm thunderstorms to improve the understanding of their potential to produce very large and damaging hail at the surface.
Reference
Kahraman, A., Kendon, E.J., Fowler, H.J. et al. Future changes in severe hail across Europe, including regional emergence of warm-type thunderstorms. Nat Commun 16, 8438 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62780-0
Journal
Nature Communications
Method of Research
Computational simulation/modeling
Article Title
Future changes in severe hail across Europe, including regional emergence of warm-type thunderstorms
Article Publication Date
26-Sep-2025
Parents want to act on climate change but struggle to model low-carbon lifestyles
Parents are deeply worried about the climate crisis and their children’s future, but a new University of Bath study shows many struggle to live low-carbon lives. Time pressures, lack of affordable options and structural barriers mean concern rarely translates into action. Researchers say parents remain a critical but under-recognised group in climate policy, with huge potential to shape the next generation’s environmental values.
The peer-reviewed study, published in Population & Environment, explores how UK parents of children under 15 understand and act on climate change, assessing their so-called “carbon capability” – the ability to make informed, effective low-carbon choices and influence others.
Based on a survey of 1,001 parents, 30 interviews and two focus groups, the research found that while parents feel a strong responsibility to safeguard their children’s future, most find it difficult to consistently model low-carbon behaviours at home.
Key findings:
- Compared to non-parents, parents reported higher energy use, greater reliance on cars, and more plastic waste.
- Parents expressed guilt about their impact but said time pressures, convenience and children’s needs often outweighed their intentions.
- Many parents hesitated to discuss climate change with their children, fearing they might cause worry or anxiety. Yet most were open to learning and wanted guidance on how to have these conversations.
- While parents shape their children’s behaviours, children’s climate education sometimes boosted parental awareness and action.
Lead author Dr Sam Hampton from the Department of Psychology, Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) and the Institute of Sustainability and Climate Change (ISCC) at the University of Bath said:
“Parenting is an important moment of change, and parents are an under-recognised group in society with unique experiences and influence. With the right mix of support and structural change - like improved public transport, affordable sustainable products and incentives for low-carbon diets - parents could become powerful low-carbon role models for the next generations. While they are not consistently acting as low-carbon role models today, they have huge potential to shape their children’s values and behaviours – making them central to long-term climate action.”
Charlotte Howell, Co-Director of Parents for Future, said:
“Parents feel the urgency of the climate crisis deeply, but many of us are held back by barriers beyond their control. Parents were already juggling a lot of plates before the cost of living crisis struck. But with more government support and inclusive policy, we can move from worry to powerful action and build the world our children deserve.”
ENDS
For more information, please contact:
University of Bath Press Office
Tel: 01225 386319
Email: press@bath.ac.uk
Notes to editors
Link to paper Parenting and climate change: assessing carbon capability in early parenthood | Population and Environment
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-025-00506-6
About the University of Bath
The University of Bath is one of the UK's leading universities, recognised for high-impact research, excellence in education, an outstanding student experience and strong graduate prospects.
- We are ranked among the top 10% of universities globally, placing 132nd in the QS World University Rankings 2026.
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Journal
Population and Environment
Article Title
Parenting and climate change: assessing carbon capability in early parenthood
Article Publication Date
25-Sep-2025
Scientists target key parameters of MJO simulation bias to improve climate models
image:
Schematic diagram of the relationship between different tau values in CAM6 and MJO simulation biases.
view moreCredit: Lu Wang
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), as a key driver of global weather and climate anomalies, is an important source of subseasonal predictability. However, most climate models still struggle to reproduce its fundamental characteristics, posing a critical challenge that urgently needs to be addressed in climate prediction. Previous studies have pointed out that the convective adjustment timescale (tau) is one of the key parameters affecting MJO simulation in climate models, but its sensitivity remains under debate.
A research team led by Professor Lu Wang from Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, China, and her PhD student Xuan Zhou, conducted a set of sensitivity experiments with refined tau values in CAM6 to clarify the role of tau in MJO simulation. Their paper was recently published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, titled "Sensitivity of MJO simulation to the convective adjustment timescale in CAM6".
According to the study, the overall MJO simulation biases tend to decrease as tau values increase, with a critical threshold of 2 hours. Specifically, when tau > 2 hours, the MJO simulation bias clearly responds to changes in tau. In contrast, when tau ≤ 2 hours, the simulation bias is relatively insensitive to tau variations.
The research further revealed the physical mechanism behind this phenomenon: a larger tau value suppresses convective precipitation, allowing more moisture to accumulate in the boundary layer. This leads to larger intraseasonal moisture perturbations in the boundary layer, which is crucial for MJO development and propagation. Conversely, a smaller tau value (≤ 2 hours) results in insufficient boundary layer moisture accumulation, thereby failing to supply the strong intraseasonal moistening required for the MJO.
"Our results reconcile the contradictory conclusions from previous studies regarding the impact of tau variations on MJO simulation biases," says Prof. Lu Wang, the corresponding author. "Research on the physical parameters affecting MJO simulation biases contributes to the targeted optimization and improvement of climate models."
"The next step is to investigate the impact of nonlinear terms among multiple physical parameters on MJO simulation biases", adds Prof. Wang. By employing the PPE (perturbed parameter ensemble) approach, they aim to quantitatively assess the independent and synergistic contributions of physical parameters to MJO simulation biases, identify the key parameters, and reveal the underlying physical mechanisms.
Journal
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters
Article Title
Sensitivity of MJO simulation to the convective adjustment timescale in CAM6
