China says most rocket debris burned up during reentry

BEIJING — China's space agency said a core segment of its biggest rocket reentered Earth’s atmosphere above the Maldives in the Indian Ocean and most of it burned up early Sunday

© Provided by The Canadian Press

Harvard astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, who tracked the tumbling rocket part, said on Twitter, “An ocean reentry was always statistically the most likely. It appears China won its gamble… But it was still reckless.”

China’s official Xinhua News Agency said reentry occurred at 7:24 p.m. local time Saturday. “The vast majority of items were burned beyond recognition during the reentry process," the report said.

Despite that, NASA Administrator Sen. Bill Nelson issued a statement saying: "It is clear that China is failing to meet responsible standards regarding their space debris.”

Usually, discarded rocket stages reenter the atmosphere soon after liftoff, normally over water, and don’t go into orbit.

The Long March 5B rocket carried the main module of Tianhe, or Heavenly Harmony, into orbit on April 29. China plans 10 more launches to carry additional parts of the space station into orbit.

The roughly 30-meter (100-foot) -long stage would be among the biggest space debris to fall to Earth.

The 18-ton rocket that fell last May was the heaviest debris to fall uncontrolled since the former Soviet space station Salyut 7 in 1991.

China’s first space station, Tiangong-1, crashed into the Pacific Ocean in 2016 after Beijing confirmed it had lost control. In 2019, the space agency controlled the demolition of its second station, Tiangong-2, in the atmosphere.

In March, debris from a Falcon 9 rocket launched by U.S. aeronautics company SpaceX fell to Earth in Washington and on the Oregon coast.

China was heavily criticized after sending a missile to destroyed a defunct weather satellite in January 2007, creating a large field of hazardous debris imperiling satellites and other spacecraft.

The Associated Press

Chinese rocket debris lands in Indian Ocean, draws criticism from NASA
By Ryan Woo 2 hrs ago

© Reuters/TINGSHU WANG FILE PHOTO: The Long March-5 Y5 rocket, carrying the Chang'e-5 lunar probe, is seen before taking off from Wenchang Space Launch Center, in Wenchang

BEIJING (Reuters) -Remnants of China's biggest rocket landed in the Indian Ocean on Sunday, with most of its components destroyed upon re-entry into the atmosphere, ending days of speculation over where the debris would hit but drawing U.S. criticism over lack of transparency.

The coordinates given by Chinese state media, citing the China Manned Space Engineering Office, put the point of impact in the ocean, west of the Maldives archipelago.

Debris from the Long March 5B has had some people looking warily skyward since it blasted off from China's Hainan island on April 29, but the China Manned Space Engineering Office said most of the debris was burnt up in the atmosphere.

State media reported parts of the rocket re-entered the atmosphere at 10:24 a.m. Beijing time (0224 GMT) and landed at a location with the coordinates of longitude 72.47 degrees east and latitude 2.65 degrees north.

The U.S. Space command confirmed the re-entry of the rocket over the Arabian Peninsula, but said it was unknown if the debris impacted land or water.

"The exact location of the impact and the span of debris, both of which are unknown at this time, will not be released by U.S. Space Command," it said in a statement on its website.

The Long March was the second deployment of the 5B variant since its maiden flight in May 2020. Last year, pieces from the first Long March 5B fell on Ivory Coast, damaging several buildings. No injuries were reported.

"Spacefaring nations must minimize the risks to people and property on Earth of re-entries of space objects and maximize transparency regarding those operations," NASA Administrator Bill Nelson, a former senator and astronaut who was picked for the role in March, said in a statement after the re-entry.

Video: China says remnants of Long March 5B about to re-enter earth's atmosphere (Reuters)

"It is clear that China is failing to meet responsible standards regarding their space debris."

ANXIETY OVER POTENTIAL DEBRIS ZONE

With most of the Earth's surface covered by water, the odds of populated area on land being hit had been low, and the likelihood of injuries even lower, according to experts.

But uncertainty over the rocket's orbital decay and China's failure to issue stronger reassurances in the run-up to the re-entry fuelled anxiety.

"It is critical that China and all spacefaring nations and commercial entities act responsibly and transparently in space to ensure the safety, stability, security, and long-term sustainability of outer space activities," Nelson said.

Harvard-based astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell told Reuters that the potential debris zone could have been as far north as New York, Madrid or Beijing, and as far south as southern Chile and Wellington, New Zealand.

Since large chunks of the NASA space station Skylab fell from orbit in July 1979 and landed in Australia, most countries have sought to avoid such uncontrolled re-entries through their spacecraft design, McDowell said.

"It makes the Chinese rocket designers look lazy that they didn't address this," said McDowell.

The Global Times, a Chinese tabloid, dismissed as "Western hype" concerns the rocket was "out of control" and could cause damage.

"It is common practice across the world for upper stages of rockets to burn up while reentering the atmosphere," Wang Wenbin, a spokesman at China's foreign ministry, said at a regular media briefing on May 7.

"To my knowledge, the upper stage of this rocket has been deactivated, which means most of its parts will burn up upon re-entry, making the likelihood of damage to aviation or ground facilities and activities extremely low," Wang said at the time.

The rocket, which put into orbit an unmanned Tianhe module containing what will become living quarters for three crew on a permanent Chinese space station, will be followed by 10 more missions to complete the station by 2022.

(Reporting by Ryan Woo, Hallie Gu and Xiao Han in Beijing and Peter Szekely in New York; Editing by Himani Sarkar & Simon Cameron-Moore)

Independence movements in Scotland and Quebec are heading in different directions

Éric Grenier CBC /7/5/2021

© Jane Barlow/PA/The Associated Press Voters in Scotland went to the polls on Thursday to elect members to the Scottish Parliament. Counting is expected to be completed on Saturday.

As Scots contemplate becoming an independent country again — just seven years after deciding against it in a 2014 referendum — Quebec seems further away from independence than it has been for decades.

Due to complications related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the complete results of the election held in Scotland on Thursday were only announced on Saturday. The governing Scottish National Party (SNP) fell one seat shy of a majority in the Scottish Parliament — but thanks to eight seats won by the pro-independence Scottish Greens, Scotland could be on track for a second independence referendum.

Whether one is held will depend on a number of factors — including British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Quebec was able to hold its own referendums on independence twice without seeking approval from Ottawa. Scotland, on the other hand, needs Westminster's permission to hold a legal vote.

But appetite for Scottish independence is running higher than it was back in 2014 — and it's not inconceivable that the United Kingdom might soon find itself disunited.

Canada, by comparison, looks like a paragon of stability.

For roughly half a century — from the start of the Quiet Revolution to the first election of a Parti Québécois government in 1976 and through two sovereignty referendums in 1980 and 1995 — the future of the federation looked shaky. These days, however, grievances in parts of Western Canada arguably might pose a bigger threat to national unity than Quebec's sovereignty movement.

Long decline in support for sovereignty

The paucity of polls on Quebec sovereignty is just one sign of the lack of current interest in la question nationale.

In the 1990s and 2000s, polls on Quebec independence were published on a monthly basis — sometimes even multiple times per month. Now, polls on independence appear once or twice a year at most.

Only three polls on sovereignty have been published since 2018. The most recent came from Mainstreet Research — it found just 32 per cent support for independence, or 36 per cent among decided voters in Quebec.

Another survey by Léger published in December found similar results: 27 per cent in favour of sovereignty, or about 34 per cent among decided voters.

Among decided francophone voters (about 60 per cent of them voted 'oui' in 1995), support for sovereignty in the Léger poll was roughly 44 to 45 per cent.
More Scots saying 'aye,' more Quebecers saying 'non'

While the trend line is drifting away from sovereignty in Quebec, it has moved toward independence in Scotland over the past year.

Polls put support for independence in Scotland at around 45 per cent, just a few points behind support for staying in the United Kingdom (the rest are undecided).

While that is a shift from the summer and fall of 2020 — when Yes support crested to about 50 per cent, nearly 10 percentage points ahead of No — support for independence nevertheless remains at a historic high and is well ahead of where it was before the 2014 referendum (which the No side won by a margin of 55 to 45 per cent).

© Jeff J Mitchell/PA/The Associated Press Under leader Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish National Party could capture a majority of seats in Scotland's Parliament.

The boost in support for independence can be attributed largely to two factors: Brexit, which 62 per cent of Scots voted against in the 2016 referendum, and the election of a majority Conservative government under Johnson in 2019 (and Britain's subsequent "hard" exit from the European Union).

In short, the political situation has changed the landscape in Scotland enough to make a pro-independence vote in another referendum more likely.

Quebec has been going in the opposite direction.

The PQ drifting into irrelevance

There has been a long trend in Quebec politics away from the old sovereignist vs. federalist divide as support for sovereignty has waned. It hasn't hit 40 per cent in polls since 2015 and you have to go back to 2005, during the sponsorship scandal, to find polls with more than 50 per cent support for Quebec independence.

The Parti Québécois, the standard bearer for sovereignty in Quebec, has been struggling as a result.

A poll by Léger for Le Journal de Montréal on Friday showed the PQ with just 12 per cent support, putting it in fourth place behind Premier François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec, the opposition Liberals and Québec Solidaire, a small left-wing sovereignist competitor.

The PQ's share of the vote has slid in three consecutive elections since 2008 and it hasn't done better than 35 per cent of the vote since 1998. In the 2018 election, the PQ put up the worst result in its history.

The Léger poll suggests the PQ could set a new record low when Quebec holds its next scheduled election in October 2022.

Legault's CAQ has changed the game

The PQ's support has been gutted by both the lack of enthusiasm for old constitutional debates and the rise of the CAQ, which has emerged as the main vehicle for French-speaking nationalists in Quebec.

According to Léger, the CAQ has 46 per cent support and enjoys a 26-point lead over the Quebec Liberals. This would be enough to hand the CAQ a massive majority government if an election were held today — perhaps the biggest majority Quebec has seen in over 30 years.

Despite the fact that his party doesn't support independence, Legault has successfully corralled the votes of sovereignists. The poll conducted by Léger in December found that about half of Quebecers who support sovereignty would cast their ballot for the CAQ. Just about a third of sovereignists prefer the PQ.

The push for independence is no longer a priority for Quebec nationalists, who seem quite content with a CAQ government that pushes for more autonomy for Quebec within the federation.

Legault has so far proven wrong one of the arguments sovereignists used against him — that by abandoning the threat of a referendum, the CAQ would lose a lot of Quebec's leverage with the federal government.

© Paul Chiasson/The Canadian Press Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Quebec Premier François Legault have made several joint announcements so far in 2021.

Instead, Legault has emerged as an important figure around the first ministers' table — and isn't the pariah among federalist party leaders that past PQ premiers could be. Federal leaders like Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole and Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet have courted Legault for electoral gain.

Legault and the CAQ won't maintain their current popularity levels forever, of course. It's difficult to predict what a post-Legault political landscape will look like in Quebec.

But with the political environment looking better for Scottish nationalists and worse for Quebec sovereignists, it seems that the next blue-and-white flag to flutter outside United Nations headquarters may be the Saltire, not the Fleurdelisé.

Scottish government sets stage for another independence vote

LONDON — The Scottish National Party won its fourth straight parliamentary election on Saturday and insisted it will push on with another referendum on Scotland's independence from the U.K. even though it failed by one seat to secure a majority.

© Provided by The Canadian Press

Final results of Thursday's election showed the SNP winning 64 of the 129 seats in the Edinburgh-based Scottish Parliament. The result extends the party's dominance of Scottish politics since it first won power in 2007.

Other results from Super Thursday's array of elections across Britain emerged Saturday, including the Labour Party's victory in the Welsh parliamentary election. Labour's Sadiq Khan was also reelected mayor of London.

The election with the biggest implications was the Scottish election, as it could pave the way to the break-up of the United Kingdom. The devolved government has an array of powers but many economic and security matters remain within the orbit of the British government in London.

Though the SNP won the vast majority of constituencies, it failed to get the 65 seats it would need to have a majority as Scotland allocates some by a form of proportional representation. Though falling short, the SNP will be easily able to govern for the five-year parliamentary term with the eight members of the Scottish Greens, who also back Scottish independence.

SNP leader and Scotland's first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said her immediate priority would be steering Scotland through the coronavirus pandemic and that the legitimacy of an independence referendum remains, SNP majority or not.

“This is now a matter of fundamental democratic principle,” Sturgeon said. “It is the will of the country.”

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the leader of the Conservative Party, would have the ultimate authority whether or not to permit another referendum on Scotland gaining independence. Johnson appears intent on resisting another vote, setting up the possibility of renewed tensions between his government and Sturgeon’s devolved administration.

The prime minister wrote in the Daily Telegraph newspaper published Saturday that another referendum would be “irresponsible and reckless” in the “current context” as Britain emerges from the pandemic.

He has consistently argued that the issue was settled in a September 2014 referendum, when 55% of Scottish voters favoured remaining part of the U.K. Proponents of another vote say the situation has changed fundamentally because of Brexit, with Scotland taken out of the European Union against its will. In the 2016 Brexit referendum, 52% of the U.K. voted to leave the EU while 62% of Scots voted to remain.

 

Video: Scottish independence back on the table in latest election (cbc.ca)

Duration 2:14

Sturgeon said it would be wrong for Johnson to stand in the way of a referendum and that the timing is a matter for the Scottish Parliament.

There's been growing talk that the whole issue may end up going to court, but Sturgeon said the “outrageous nature” of any attempt by the British government to thwart the democratic will of Scotland would only fuel the desire for independence.

“I couldn't think of a more powerful argument for independence than that,” she said.

The Scotland results have been the main focus since an array of local and regional elections took place Thursday across Britain, in which around 50 million voters were eligible to vote.

In Wales, the concluded vote count showed Labour doing better than expected as it extended its 22 years in control of the Welsh government despite also falling one seat short of a majority. Mark Drakeford, who will remain first minister, said the party will be “radical” and “ambitious.”

Ballots continue to be counted from local elections in England, which already have been particularly good for Johnson’s Conservative Party, notably its victory in a special election in the post-industrial town of Hartlepool for a parliamentary seat that Labour had held since 1974.

That win extended the party’s grip on parts of England that had been Labour strongholds for decades, if not a century. Many seats that have flipped from red to blue voted heavily for Brexit. The speedy rollout of coronavirus vaccines also appears to have given the Conservatives a boost even though the U.K. has recorded Europe's highest COVID-related death toll at 127,500.

For Labour's new leader, Keir Starmer, the Hartlepool result was a huge disappointment and has led to another bout of soul-searching in a party that in 2019 suffered its worst general election performance since 1935.

Starmer said he would soon set out a strategy of how it can reconnect with traditional voters. He hasn’t given details though is thought to be considering a rejig of his top team, starting off with removing his deputy, Angela Rayner, from her roles of party chair and campaign co-ordinator.

Though Labour is clearly losing ground in its traditional heartlands, its support held up in other parts of England, such as the big cities.

In London, Sadiq Khan won a second term in elections delayed by a year because of the pandemic. He secured 55.2% of the vote once second preference votes were counted, beating his Conservative rival Shaun Bailey got 44.8%. Khan's winning margin was down slightly on last time.

The party also won other mayoral races, including Steve Rotherham in the Liverpool City Region, Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester and Dan Norris in the West of England region, which includes the city of Bristol.

The Conservatives' Andy Street, meanwhile, was reelected as mayor of the West Midlands, which includes the city of Birmingham.

Pan Pylas, The Associated Press

#FEMICIDE AMERIKA PAPER TIGER

Bomb kills at least 30 near girls' school in Afghan capital
LEAVES WITH TAIL BETWEEN LEGS

KABUL — A bomb exploded near a girls' school in a majority Shiite district of west Kabul on Saturday, killing at least 30 people, many of them young pupils between 11 and 15 years old. The Taliban condemned the attack and denied any responsibility.

© Reuters An injured woman is transported to a hospital after a blast in Kabul

Ambulances evacuated the wounded as relatives and residents screamed at authorities near the scene of the blast at Syed Al-Shahda school, in the Dasht-e-Barchi neighbourhood, Interior Ministry spokesman Tariq Arian said. The death toll was expected to rise further.

The bombing, apparently aimed to cause maximum civilian carnage, adds to fears that violence in the war-wrecked country could escalate as the U.S. and NATO end nearly 20 years of military engagement.

Residents in the area said the explosion was deafening. One, Naser Rahimi, told The Associated Press he heard three separate explosions, although there was no official confirmation of multiple blasts. Rahimi also said he believed that the sheer power of the explosion meant the death toll would almost certainly climb.

Rahimi said the explosion went off as the girls were streaming out of the school at around 4:30 p.m. local time. Authorities were investigating the attack but have yet to confirm any details.

One of the students fleeing the school recalled the attack. the screaming of the girls, the blood.

“I was with my classmate, we were leaving the school, when suddenly an explosion happened, “ said 15-year-old Zahra, whose arm had been broken by a piece of shrapnel.

“Ten minutes later there was another explosion and just a couple of minutes later another explosion,” she said. "Everyone was yelling and there was blood everywhere, and I couldn’t see anything clearly.” Her friend died.

While no one has claimed responsibility for the bombing, the Afghan Islamic State affiliate has targeted the Shiite neighbourhood before.

The radical Sunni Muslim group has declared war on Afghanistan's minority Shiite Muslims. Washington blamed IS for a vicious attack last year in a maternity hospital in the same area that killed pregnant women and newborn babies.

In Dasht-e-Barchi, angry crowds attacked the ambulances and even beat health workers as they tried to evacuate the wounded, Health Ministry spokesman Ghulam Dastigar Nazari said. He implored residents to co-operate and allow ambulances free access to the site.

Images circulating on social media purportedly showed bloodied school backpacks and books strewn across the street in front if the school, and smoke rising above the neighbourhood.

At one nearby hospital, Associated Press journalists saw at least 20 dead bodies lined up in hallways and rooms, with dozens of wounded people and families of victims pressing through the facility.

Outside the Muhammad Ali Jinnah Hospital, dozens of people lined up to donate blood, while family members checked casualty posted lists on the walls.

Both Arian and Nazari said that at least 50 people were also wounded, and that the casualty toll could rise. The attack occurred just as the fasting day came to an end.

No one immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, and Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told reporters in a message that only the Islamic State group could be responsible for such a heinous crime. Mujahid also accused Afghanistan's intelligence agency of being complicit with IS, although he offered no evidence.

The Taliban and the Afghan government have traded accusations over a series of targeted killings of civil society workers, journalists and Afghan professionals. While IS has taken responsibility for some of those killings, many have gone unclaimed.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani issued a statement condemning the attack, blaming the Taliban even as they denied it. He offered no proof.

IS has previously claimed attacks against minority Shiites in the same area, last year claiming two brutal attacks on education facilities that killed 50 people, most of them students.

Even as the IS has been degraded in Afghanistan, according to government and US officials, it has stepped-up its attacks particularly against Shiite Muslims and women workers.

Earlier the group took responsibility for the targeted killing of three women media personnel in eastern Afghanistan.

The attack comes days after the remaining 2,500 to 3,500 American troops officially began leaving the country. They will be out by Sept. 11 at the latest. The pullout comes amid a resurgent Taliban, who control or hold sway over half of Afghanistan.

The top U.S. military officer said Sunday that Afghan government forces face an uncertain future and possibly some “bad possible outcomes” against Taliban insurgents as the withdrawal accelerates in the coming weeks.

_____

Associated Press photographer Rahmat Gul and video journalist Ahmad Seir in Kabul, Afghanistan and Kathy Gannon in Islamabad, Pakistan contributed to this report.

Rahim Faiez, The Associated Press

Afghan school blast toll rises to 58, families bury victims

KABUL (Reuters) - The death toll from an explosion outside a school in Afghanistan's capital Kabul has risen to 58, Afghan officials said on Sunday, with doctors struggling to provide medical care to at least 150 injured.

© Reuters/STRINGER People stand at the site of a blast in Kabul

The bombing on Saturday evening shook the city's Shi'ite Muslim neighbourhood of Dasht-e-Barchi. The community, a religious minority in Afghanistan, has been targeted in the past by Islamic State militants, a Sunni militant group.

Reuters/STRINGER An Afghan policeman stands guard inside a hospital, after a blast in Kabul

An eyewitness told Reuters all but seven or eight of the victims were schoolgirls going home after finishing studies.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani on Saturday blamed the attack on Taliban insurgents but a spokesman for the Taliban denied involvement, saying the group condemns any attacks on Afghan civilians.

Families of the victims blamed the Afghan government and Western powers for failing to put an end to violence and the ongoing war.

Bodies were still being collected from morgues as the first burials were conducted in the west of the city. Some families were still searching for missing relatives on Sunday, gathering outside hospitals to read names posted on the walls, and checking morgues.

"The entire night we carried bodies of young girls and boys to a graveyard and prayed for everyone wounded in the attack," said Mohammed Reza Ali, who has been helping families of the victims at a private hospital.

"Why not just kill all of us to put and end to this war?" he said.

The violence comes a week after remaining U.S. and NATO troops began exiting Afghanistan, with a mission to complete the drawdown by September 11, which will mark the end of America's longest war.

But the foreign troop withdrawal has led a surge in fighting between Afghan security forces and Taliban insurgents with both sides trying to retain control over strategic centres.

(Reporting by Kabul bureau, Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)

UH OH
NOAA's "new normal" climate report is anything but normal

Jeff Berardelli 

Just a quick glance at the new U.S. Climate Normals maps published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Tuesday is enough for most climate scientists to say, "I told you so." And it's not just because the maps show a warmer and wetter nation, as one would expect with global warming; it's also the specific geographic pattern of those changes.

© NOAA noaa-temps-map.jpg

That's because for decades climate scientists and their computer models have projected the regions that should expect the most warming, the most drying and the biggest increase in precipitation due to human-caused climate change. NOAA's new maps are clear evidence that this impact is now being felt.

It doesn't take a climate scientist to see the changes that have occurred. In the maps below, using NOAA data, Climate Central illustrates the warmer temperatures the U.S. has experienced. When comparing the latest "normals" to what used to be normal a century ago, the difference is clear — seen in red from coast to coast.

© Provided by CBS News / Credit: Climate Central

The map on the left depicts the updated climate "normals" compared to the normal temperatures of the early 20th century (1901-1930). In that time the U.S. has warmed an average of 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit. But the shades of the map show that not all areas are warming uniformly, with the darker red indicating temperature increases in some regions of 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit.

The map on the right is more muted in tone and shows the difference between recent 30-year averages, comparing the 1981-2010 normals to the new 1991-2020 normals. While the new normals are just 10 years removed from the earlier set, the changes are still significant. In that time the nation has warmed an average of half a degree Fahrenheit.

That may not sound like much, but small changes in the normals mean much larger changes in the extremes like heat waves, droughts, wildfires, floods and hurricanes. And hidden within the pattern of changes are interesting clues into how climate change will impact us now and into the future.
Defining the new normal

Every 10 years NOAA releases a new set of "climate normals" — what is considered normal, typical or average weather in a given location at a given time of year. To ensure that these normals are not subject to the ebb and flow of yearly weather, these averages are based on 30-year time periods to even out any short-term swings.

The new normal baseline is calculated from 8,700 weather stations operated by NOAA across the U.S. and its territories. The data includes information on temperature, precipitation and other weather variables.

So why update the normals every 10 years? First, it is required by the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization. But on a practical note it is necessary to accurately reflect the state of the climate. These "normals" allow meteorologists, like myself, to compare the weather on any given day with what is historically expected, to give the public a gauge of how typical or extreme the weather is at any given moment.

"Keeping weather and climate data updated is important for the government officials and business owners who rely on it for decisions such as clothing, tourism, and construction companies, utilities, farmers, and city planners," explains Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central. "But the fact that NOAA needs to keep pushing average temperature data higher is the sign of something bigger —the longer-term warming."

But some climate scientists, like Michael Mann of Penn State, don't love the system of reporting new normals. As he told The Associated Press, Mann prefers using a constant baseline because updating what is normal for present-day conditions obscures the long-term warming trend and makes the warming due to climate change seem less significant. "Adjusting normal every 10 years perverts the meaning of 'normal' and 'normalizes' away climate change," said Mann.

U.S. hotter than it's ever been, NOAA says

What the data reveals

Since the 1800s the globe has warmed by around 2 degrees Fahrenheit. Nine out of 10 of the warmest years on record worldwide have all occurred in the past decade.

A recent study by NASA proves that all recent warming is related to humans' burning of fossil fuels and the resultant amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere.

But because of regional variations in geography like ice cover, water and land type, some regions warm much more or less rapidly than others. For instance, the Arctic regions are warming at three times the average global rate due partly to rapid changes in ice cover and the impact of local feedback.

In the United States, NOAA's new climate normals reveal that our nation is about on pace with the global average of warming. What's more, the pattern of recent regional changes in our climate validate scientists' understanding of how man-made climate change is unfolding.

"We're really seeing the fingerprints of climate change in the new normals," said Michael Palecki, the project manager of NOAA's latest climate normals update. "We're not trying to hide that. We're in fact reflecting that."

These climate change fingerprints are best illustrated by using side-by-side comparisons of previous 30-year climate normals, pictured below. The warming trend could not be more apparent when comparing the early 20th century (the map at the top left) with the latest two decades (bottom right).

© Provided by CBS News / Credit: NOAA

But there are subtleties in the data. Western and northern states are clearly warming faster. The Southeast is warming less fast. Sean Sublette, a meteorologist from Climate Central, says that many of these differences in warming are due to differences in the presence of water.

"As a general rule of thumb, a warming climate intensifies the water cycle of evaporation, condensation, and precipitation. So dry climates get drier. Wet climates get wetter," Sublette explains.

In the West, the terrain is generally dry.That means as the climate warms more of the excess heat from climate change goes directly into warming the air temperature, not evaporating moisture. In the Southeast the opposite is true. The moisture-laden climate there means that much of the heat is used to evaporate water rather than directly heating the air, which explains the slower rate of warming.

These same physics also help illuminate some of the trends in U.S. precipitation. While not quite as clear-cut as temperature, the maps below show a clear trend of increasing wetness in the East and drying in the Southwest.

© Provided by CBS News / Credit: NOAA

A warmer Gulf of Mexico allows more moisture to be evaporated and transported northward, falling as rain and snow. Also a warmer U.S. means that more of that rain and snow on the ground is re-evaporated, enhancing precipitation even more — a positive feedback loop.

In the West, that feedback loop is negative. As precipitation becomes less consistent in the Southwest due to climate change, the ground becomes drier. With less moisture on the ground, air temperatures increase even more, drying out the ground even more. The lack of soil moisture means less rain falls locally. This negative feedback is how drought begets drought and is a contributing factor to why the region is going through one of its worst droughts in modern history.

While some of the recent drying in the Southwest can possibly be explained by natural variability, the long-term trend from climate models is for more drying as the climate continues to warm and rainfall becomes more variable.

In the shorter term, changes in temperature and precipitation are not quite as stark but still very apparent. The maps below compare the climate normals from 1981-2010 with this new update of 1991-2020. Most of the U.S has warmed in the past decade, with the exception of parts of the Northern Plains states.

© Provided by CBS News / Credit: NOAA - CISESS

As for why the Northern Plains have not warmed in the recent decades, there are some common theories but it is still an active area of research. Some climate scientists think it has to do with a more wavy jet stream, theorized as a result of faster heating of the polar regions, allowing cooler Arctic air to be displaced further south. Other scientists say it could be greater snowpack and increased cloud cover. Some say it's likely all of the above.

But Sublette says another common explanation for the slight cooling in the Northern Plains states may related to modern farming.

"The early reasoning is likely related to land use — there is now a greater coverage of corn and soybeans in the hotter months," Sublette explains. "Colloquially known as 'corn sweat,' the plants give off more moisture from their leaves... which leads to more evaporation, which has a cooling effect."

In that same area, the maps show precipitation has increased. In fact, the majority of the U.S. has gotten wetter, with the exception of the region that needs the rain most, the southwestern quarter of the nation.

© Provided by CBS News / Credit: NOAA - CISESS

Shifts in average mean large changes in extremes

While the changing pattern of temperature and precipitation may seem subtle when averaged out, these shifts result in real and expensive consequences because of an escalation in extreme weather. A NOAA analysis finds that the number of disasters each year in the U.S. that cause greater than a billion dollars in damage (adjusted for inflation) has more than quadrupled since the 1980s.

As Sublette explains, a small change in the average means a disproportionate increase in extremes. "So, while 1°F does not sound like much on the average, that means that the frequency of extreme heat goes up much more rapidly."

In the NASA animation below, illustrating normal distribution of temperatures from 1951 to the present, you can clearly see how the shift reveals an even greater increase in extreme temperatures, pictured in the darker shades of red on the right side of the distribution. As they say, "wait for it."

© Provided by CBS News / Credit: NASA

Climate scientist Ed Hawkins has an equally good way of visualizing this effect in the tweet below:

But it is not just extreme heat that a warmer climate portends. More heat means more available energy for just about every form of weather. That means more extreme floods like the Midwest experienced in 2019. It means more extreme droughts and fires like the record-breaking 2020 Western wildfire season. And it means more extreme hurricanes, leading to greater damage and an increase in climate migration.

So, while these updated climate normals may seem like what Climate Central's Bernadette Woods Placky calls "a geeky data moment," she hopes people can see the deeper significance.

"This data update is a moment to pause and take a look at the bigger picture, that we are warming almost everywhere and there is nothing normal about it," she said.

Obama's former top economist outlines 5 factors that are likely keeping people from returning to work

jzeballos@businessinsider.com (Joseph Zeballos-Roig) 
 Saturday, May 8 2021

© Reuters Jason Furman. Reuters

A former top economist to Barack Obama said the April jobs report was "stunning."

"It's going to be complicated and messy" for the economy to get back on track, Jason Furman says.

He outlined 5 factors likely keeping people from returning to work, including virus fears and school closures.

Jason Furman, a former top economist to President Barack Obama, said Friday's April jobs report was a "stunning one he told Insider in an interview"

"But you should never be too stunned, as data is very noisy and we're going through a very strange period,"  

 

The latest jobs report showed the economy had recovered 266,000 jobs in April, a far smaller amount than March's gain and far below projections of a gain of 1 million jobs. Economists had expected a massive job surge due to government stimulus dollars, increased vaccinations, and easing restrictions on businesses.

The unemployment rate stood relatively unchanged at 6.1%. But the job gains were a sharp reduction after businesses added 800,000 jobs in March. Treasury Secretary Yellen said the recovery would be "bumpy" at the White House on Friday.

Furman, now a professor at Harvard University and formerly the chair of President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, laid out five factors that he believes are keeping workers sidelined to varying degrees:

Fear of the virus,

Early retirements,

School closures,

Lack of affordable childcare, and

Enhanced unemployment insurance ($300-per-week).

"Very likely the biggest factor is the virus," Furman said. "Some people, as the virus goes down, they'll return. Some people retired early because of the virus and its an open question as to whether they'll come back."

Furman also said school closures and difficulties of accessing childcare were another pair of factors restraining the recovery. "That's really important, especially for women with younger children in the economy."

He also said federal unemployment benefits from President Joe Biden's stimulus were another factor, but likely not the main one. "I don't think there's any evidence that it's the main cause."

After the report's release, Democrats mounted a fresh defense of their $4 trillion infrastructure spending plans as Republicans pounced, citing the lackluster jobs report as proof that Biden's spending is holding back hiring.

Furman said its spending would address longstanding problems and inequalities in the workforce. "It makes just as much sense in light of these numbers as it did before these numbers," he said. "It's designed to address our structural problems.

Furman said he was optimistic that overall trends are pointing in the right direction, but cautioned there could be a start-stop motion to the recovery.

"We're gonna see pockets of strength, pockets of weakness, areas of overheating, areas where it is uncool - it's going to be complicated and messy," he said.

Progressives Blast GOP Calls to End $300 Weekly Unemployment: 'Greed Has No Bounds'

Jason Lemon 

Progressive lawmakers pushed back hard after some Republicans and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce called for ending extra $300 weekly unemployment payments to jobless workers amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

© Susan Walsh-Pool/Getty Images Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) and other progressives slammed Republican calls for ending extra $300 weekly unemployment payments after a disappointing April jobs report. In this photo, Sanders speaks during a hearing on Capitol Hill examining wages at large profitable corporations on February 25 in Washington, D.C.

GOP lawmakers and the Chamber of Congress, a pro-business lobby group that generally backs Republican candidates, blamed extra federal unemployment payments approved by Congress in the American Rescue Plan for the significantly less than expected job growth in April. The Department of Labor released the April jobs report on Friday, showing that the economy added just 266,000 jobs last month despite predictions that it would be closer to 1 million.

But progressives and officials from President Joe Biden's administration were quick to push back against the calls for ending the extra payments, as millions of workers remain unemployed.

"Providing an extra $300 a week in unemployment benefits to low-income families living in desperation is not radical. What's radical is that 719 billionaires became $1.6 trillion richer during the pandemic while the $7.25 federal minimum wage has not been increased in 12 years," Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent and prominent progressive, tweeted on Saturday.

Providing an extra $300 a week in unemployment benefits to low-income families living in desperation is not radical. What's radical is that 719 billionaires became $1.6 trillion richer during the pandemic while the $7.25 federal minimum wage has not been increased in 12 years.— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) May 8, 2021

Sanders pushed back against the Republicans' criticism of the supplemental unemployment on Friday as well.

"No. We don't need to end $300 a week in emergency unemployment benefits that workers desperately need. We need to end starvation wages in America. If $300 a week is preventing employers from hiring low-wage workers there's a simple solution: Raise your wages. Pay decent benefits," Sanders wrote on Twitter.

Representative Pramila Jayapal, a Washington Democrat who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus, shared similar sentiments on social media.

"The federal minimum wage has been $7.25 since 2009. For tipped workers, it's been $2.13 for 30 years. The problem is NOT expanded unemployment assistance," Jayapal tweeted.

The federal minimum wage has been $7.25 since 2009.

For tipped workers, it’s been $2.13 for 30 years.

The problem is NOT expanded unemployment assistance.— Pramila Jayapal (@PramilaJayapal) May 8, 2021

Representative Ilhan Omar, a Minnesota Democrat who serves as the Congressional Progressive Caucus whip, blasted the calls to end supplemental payments.

"The interests of big business are at war with the interests of the working class. They will spend millions of dollars to take $300 a month away from you and your family, to force you to work for them for pennies. Their greed has no bounds," Omar tweeted.

The interests of big business are at war with the interests of the working class. They will spend millions of dollars to take $300 a month away from you and your family, to force you to work for them for pennies.

Their greed has no bounds. https://t.co/LW8qaUTLLn— Ilhan Omar (@IlhanMN) May 7, 2021

"Businesses that pay their workers fairly aren't having trouble finding workers," Omar added. "And if your business can't turn a profit without paying people starvation wages, like the $7.50 an hour federal minimum wage, you shouldn't be in business." Continuing, the progressive congresswoman said "we wouldn't need to have this conversation" if businesses shifted the money they spent on lobbying the government to paying workers higher wages.

After the release of the latest jobs report, the Chamber of Commerce was quick to weigh in with criticism of the extra $300 weekly unemployment payments on Friday.

"The disappointing jobs report makes it clear that paying people not to work is dampening what should be a stronger jobs market," Neil Bradley, the lobby's executive vice president and chief policy officer, said. "We need a comprehensive approach to dealing with our workforce issues and the very real threat unfilled positions poses to our economic recovery from the pandemic."

In a statement emailed to Newsweek, Kasper Zeuthen, vice president of communications for the Chamber of Commerce, argued that his organization is taking into account the best interests of businesses and workers.

"It is no secret that our focus is on what is best for America's companies and their workers—and we should all be focused on how we can help our country's recovery and create more jobs," Zeuthen said.

Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, called Biden "delusional" on Twitter after he told reporters he did not believe the extra unemployment benefits were the cause of the lackluster job numbers. Representative Chris Stewart, a Utah Republican, tweeted that the news in the report was "no surprise," writing that "paying people not to work is bad policy."

"While Dems trap people in a cycle of fear & pay them NOT to work, it's clear the best thing to do is end the crisis-era policies & get Americans back to work," House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican, wrote on Twitter, slamming Biden over the job figures.

Today’s jobs report is a disappointment—just like President Biden’s plan to burden families with more taxes & more debt.

While Dems trap people in a cycle of fear & pay them NOT to work, it’s clear the best thing to do is end the crisis-era policies & get Americans back to work.— Kevin McCarthy (@GOPLeader) May 7, 2021

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Labor Secretary Marty Walsh disputed the Republicans' assessment. They pointed to strong job gains in the leisure and hospitality sectors, which generally hire lower wage workers that would be most likely to be paid more on unemployment than to work.

"This month's report, as far as leisure and hospitality—which includes restaurants—saw the most significant gains," Walsh told Fox News on Friday. "Lots of restaurants weren't open full time until recently," he added, saying that restaurants are only open at full capacity in about three-quarters of the country.

Yellen shared a similar perspective with reporters. "If the unemployment bonus was slowing down hiring, one would expect lower job growth in states and sectors where unemployment insurance is particularly high. In fact, what one sees is the exact opposite," the treasury secretary explained.

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The US economy is barreling towards a post-COVID boom. All it took was for the people in charge to finally learn from the 2008 recession's disastrous mistakes.

george@bespokeinvest.com (George Pearkes) 

 President Joe Biden has framed his infrastructure plan as a means of strengthening democracy and undermining autocracy. Alex Wong/Getty Images

The US economy is finally shaking off the cobwebs and is set up for a huge post-COVID boom.

This is because Congress, the president, and the Fed all learned from the lackluster post-2008 recovery.

Strong and sustained support for workers and American families is going to help boost the economy through 2021 and beyond.

This is an opinion column. The thoughts expressed are those of the author and do not represent those of his employer nor Insider.

On Wednesday, April 28, it became clear that the US economy's post-2008 malaise had finally worn off for good.

The epiphany came as I stared at my screen and saw some of the largest companies in the world report staggering numbers. Apple and Facebook shattered expectations for revenue and income as consumer spending and advertiser demand roared. Ford reportedthat semiconductor shortages would mean half of their planned production for April through June wouldn't take place as demand overwhelmed factories' ability to make chips.

Earlier in the afternoon, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had announced that despite positive signs from the economy, the central bank would stay the course with stimulative policy to make sure the COVID shock to labor markets wasn't just put to bed, but was buried 6 feet under.

Unlike the grim slogging recovery from the global financial crisis, this recovery feels more like a thoroughbred straining against the reins as it gathers steam.
The mistakes of the past

The recession triggered by the financial crisis officially lasted from 2007 through 2009, but it was years before it truly felt over. Home prices didn't bottom until 2012, consumers steadily reduced their debt levels, and it was nearly a decade before broad measures of labor market health recovered. Manufacturing production bounced back, but not dramatically, and factories always had lots of spare capacity.

After 2008, the Fed and financial markets fretted constantly about inflation that never fully arrived. Fiscal stimulus was lacking, held back by anti-government rhetoric, the birth of the Tea Party, and timidity from the Obama economics team.

This lack of effort by policymakers and a rolling series of macro shocks from the debt ceiling standoff in 2011 to Brexit in 2016 slowed the household recovery from the subprime credit bubble and held back the US economy.

Inflation, investment, and GDP growth were all slow. The Fed (but not fiscal policymakers) eventually helped the economy hobble to the point that it could begin raising rates, but even blooming petite bourgeois confidence following the 2016 election of Donald Trump couldn't fully shake off the cobwebs.
Learning from the last crisis

There were signs in 2018 and 2019 that a shift might be looming. Wage growth was strong and unemployment was low, and when the Fed got worried it had tightened a bit too much, it eased off the brakes with rate cuts that helped reverse a modest downtick in the housing market.

Over the course of that 2018 to 2019 period, the Federal Reserve ran a "Fed Listens" tour, which tried to take the tone of ordinary people instead of focusing on abstract models. When COVID hit in early 2020, the Fed was ready, and Congress stepped up too.

While COVID has carried a devastating health toll, the economy today is dramatically better off than anyone predicted a year ago. Massive monetary easing and huge fiscal support have reduced debt payments and flooded consumers' checking accounts, and businesses have - for the most part - been able to navigate the shock despite hundreds of thousands of American deaths.

The most recent Federal Reserve policy press conference was typically dry, but I did perk up when a question was asked to Chairman Powell about an encampment of houseless people that has sprung up near the Federal Reserve. Powell spent several minutes talking about those people and was obviously uncomfortable as he noted "That could be you. That could be your sister. That could be your kid."

From the ashes of a slow-growth, over-supplied economy where businesses had little pricing power, wages were weak, and economic policy failed to support already beaten-down animal spirits, we're seeing a phoenix emerge.

Cars aren't being built not because people don't have the money to buy them, but because there's too much demand for the components used to make them. Businesses are raising prices and complaining about not being able to find enough people to work. The federal government is sending checks to support households while expanding the social safety net for the first time in two generations. Homebuilders are turning away customers because they can't throw up houses fast enough.

The recession which COVID wrought was never going to look exactly like the last one, but the recoveries are polar opposites. Policymakers are taking real steps to alleviate suffering, and it's having an obvious impact on results for companies and the overall economic backdrop. Obviously, more can be done, and the follow-on legislation proposed by President Biden tries to further push the envelope in supporting children, the elderly, creaking physical infrastructure, and long-ignored industrial policy.

But aside from the policy, the data, and the politics, this country feels different than it did in 2010. It feels ready to grow again, and return the promise of broad American prosperity that has felt absent for decades and most of all during the 2010s. Here's hoping that feeling is more than just vibes from some good earnings prints.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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'Mounting exhaustion' has nurses considering leaving profession

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New survey reveals many Ontario nurses are contemplating a move out of the healthcare industry due to the pandemic. Brandon Rowe on the harrowing work of nurses on the front lines.

Ransomware attack leads to shutdown of major U.S. pipeline system

Ellen Nakashima, Yeganeh Torbati, Will Englund 

A ransomware attack led one of the nation’s biggest fuel pipeline operators to shut down its entire network on Friday, according to the company and two U.S. officials familiar with the matter.

© Jay Reeves/AP FILE — This Sept. 16, 2016, file photo shows tanker trucks lined up at a Colonial Pipeline Co. facility in Pelham, Ala. (AP Photo/Jay Reeves, File)

While it is not expected to have an immediate impact on fuel supply or prices, the attack on Colonial Pipeline, which carries almost half of the gasoline, diesel and other fuels used on the East Coast, underscores the potential vulnerability of industrial sectors to the expanding threat of ransomware strikes.

It appears to have been carried out by an Eastern European-based criminal gang — DarkSide, according to a U.S. official and another person familiar with the matter.

Federal officials and the private security firm Mandiant, a division of FireEye, are still investigating the matter, they said.The Cybersecurity 202: A group of industry, government and cyber experts have a big plan to disrupt the ransomware crisis

“We are engaged with the company and our interagency partners regarding the situation,” said Eric Goldstein, executive assistant director of the cybersecurity division at the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, or CISA. “This underscores the threat that ransomware poses to organizations regardless of size or sector. We encourage every organization to take action to strengthen their cybersecurity posture to reduce their exposure to these types of threats.”

President Biden was briefed on the incident on Saturday morning, a White House statement said. It said the federal government is working to assess the incident’s implications, avoid disruption to supply and help Colonial Pipeline restore operations “as quickly as possible.”

Colonial Pipeline said in a statement on Friday that it had temporarily shut down all its pipeline operations after learning it had been hit by a cyber attack on some of its “information technology” or business network systems that day. As a result, the firm said, it “proactively took certain systems offline to contain the threat.” Early on Saturday afternoon, the company confirmed that the attack “involves ransomware.” It said it had notified law enforcement and other federal agencies.

© The Washington Post

Colonial’s 5,500 miles of pipelines carry fuel from refineries on the Gulf Coast to customers in the southern and eastern United States. It says it transports 45 percent of the fuel consumed on the East Coast, reaching 50 million Americans.

Ransomware attacks, in which hackers lock up computer systems — usually by encrypting data — and demand payment to free up the system, are a global scourge. In recent years, they have affected everyone from banks and hospitals to universities and municipalities — almost 2,400 organizations in the United States were victimized last year alone, one security firm reported. But the attackers are increasingly targeting industrial sectors because these firms are more willing to pay up to regain control of their systems, experts say.

“The downtime for industrial companies can cost millions,” said Robert M. Lee, the chief executive of Dragos, a major cybersecurity firm that handles incidents in the industrial control sector.

U.S. officials and experts in industrial control security said such attacks are more common than is publicly known and that most just do not get reported.

“There are absolutely cases in industrial operations where ransomware impacts operations,” but often the stories don’t hit the news, Lee said. “There are lots of industrial control companies that are battling ransomware around the United States.”The Cybersecurity 202: Lawmakers scramble for legislative solutions to a growing ransomware crisis

The trend exploded in the last three years after the WannaCry and NotPetya computer worms showed cyber criminals how targeting companies in critical industrial sectors is more likely to make companies pay out, Lee said.

The DarkSide group has hit utility firms before, said Allan Liska, intelligence analyst at the cyber threat research firm Recorded Future. In February, ransomware attacks disrupted operations at two Brazilian state-owned electric utility companies, Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras (Eletrobras) and Companhia Paranaense de Energia (Copel), he said.

Private firms that investigate cyber intrusions say they are handling cases involving DarkSide using ransomware to target American industrial companies. But there are many other ransomware groups that seem to be targeting such firms in greater numbers than ever before, analysts said.

Carrying off a ransomware attack does not require great technical sophistication, Liska said. In the world of criminal ransomware operations, some crews specialize in gaining access and others pay for that access and then lock up the data, he said. DarkSide generally falls into the lock up crew category, he said.

“The last few years have been incredibly busy” because the proliferation of vulnerabilities in firewalls and virtual private networks have allowed ransomware criminals to gain access to networks at an unprecedented scale, Lee said.

“To put it simply, we are on the cusp of a global digital pandemic driven by greed,” former top DHS cyber official Christopher Krebs told Congress on Wednesday. He called the ransomware emergency a “digital dumpster fire.”

Last year, CISA warned pipeline operators about the threat of ransomware. CISA responded to a ransomware attack on a natural gas compression facility in which the attacker gained access to the corporate network and then pivoted to the operational network, where it encrypted on various devices. As a result, the firm shut down operations for about two days, CISA said.

The DHS warning to operators came after members of Congress in 2018 urged the agency to do more to protect pipelines from cyber attacks.

Though there is as yet no known foreign government nexus to the Colonial Pipeline incident, the U.S. government has in the past asserted links between Russian spy services and ransomware rings. Last month, the Treasury Department stated that the Russian internal security service, FSB, “cultivates and co-opts criminal hackers, including” a group called Evil Corp., “enabling them to engage in disruptive ransomware attacks.” Treasury sanctioned Evil Corp. in late 2019.

Cybersecurity researchers believe that DarkSide operates mostly out of Russia, which U.S. officials and cybersecurity experts have accused of harboring cyber criminals. These criminals avoid targeting victims in Russia, experts say.

In January 2019, the Director of National Intelligence, Daniel Coats, warned at an annual worldwide threat briefing that China has the ability to launch cyber attacks that cause temporary disruptive effects on critical infrastructure, “such as disruption of a natural gas pipeline for days to weeks” in the United States. He did not specify what type of cyber tool or mention ransomware explicitly.

A task force of more than 60 experts from industry, government, nonprofits and academia last month urged a series of coordinated actions by industry, government and civil society. Their recommendations include mandating that organizations report ransom payments and requiring them to consider alternatives before making payments. Governments, they said, could provide support to help firms hold out longer. The recommendations also call for global diplomatic and law enforcement efforts to induce countries from providing safe havens to ransomware criminals.

“Proposing this framework is merely the first step,” the task force said, “and the real challenge is in implementation.”

The Biden administration is expected in the coming weeks to issue an executive order aimed at shoring up the cybersecurity of federal civilian agencies. Though it will not specifically address private critical infrastructure, it is expected to drive standards for federal contractors that experts hope will ripple across the private sector.

Last month, the White House and Energy Department launched a 100-day action plan focused on boosting the cybersecurity of electricity sector industrial systems. The idea is to eventually expand that effort to gas pipelines and water systems.

Prices for refined oil products are slumping on the Gulf Coast because of the shutdown. Analysts say that depending on how long the pipelines are out of service, prices for gasoline and jet fuel could rise in the New York area, as they did in 2017 when a hurricane forced a shutdown.

Bob McNally, founder of the Rapidan Energy Group, said although the shutdown of the Colonial system is “massive,” if the company is able to restart operations within a couple of days, he does not expect an impact on fuel prices.

“The critical thing now is the duration,” he said. “Right now, everything depends this weekend on news that the market gets about the duration of the outage.”

Storage in both the Gulf Coast region and the Northeast “can largely mitigate the impact of a short-term event,” said Bernadette Johnson, senior vice president of power and renewables at a company called Enverus.

But if the shutdown lasts much longer than a few days, there could be a cascade of dramatic impacts, including higher prices and consumer hoarding of gasoline supplies, McNally said. Gasoline prices have been edging higher in recent weeks, in line with typical seasonal trends.

The Colonial pipeline system “is an irreplaceable, vital jugular for fuel supply to the East Coast,” McNally said. “It’s the major artery and there are no real other good options to replace it.”

One of Colonial’s two pipelines ruptured last summer in North Carolina, spilling 1.2 million gallons of gasoline, the largest spill in the state’s history.

On March 29, the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), a division of the Department of Transportation, informed Colonial that its investigation of the North Carolina spill raised serious concerns about safety.

“PHMSA’s ongoing investigation indicates that conditions may exist on the Colonial Pipeline System that pose a pipeline integrity risk to public safety, property or the environment,” it said in a proposed safety order.

“The conditions that led to the failure potentially exist throughout the Colonial Pipeline System. Further, Colonial’s inability to effectively detect and respond to this release, as well as other past releases, has potentially exacerbated the impacts of this and numerous other failures over the operational history of Colonial’s entire system. ... It appears that the continued operation of the Colonial Pipeline System without corrective measures would pose a pipeline integrity risk to public safety, property, or the environment.”

In 2016, a Colonial pipeline exploded and released 4,400 barrels of gasoline into a pond in Shelby County, Ala. One worker was killed. Recovery and repair procedures were hampered by dangerous clouds of gasoline and benzene vapors, PHMSA reported.

Later that year, an underground leak of more than 7,000 barrels was discovered by a mine inspector in Alabama. That leak was attributed to pipe fatigue caused by improper preparation of the soil beneath it. For both incidents, the company agreed to pay the state $3.3 million to cover damages and penalties.