Brazil leader Jair Bolsonaro accused of "crimes against humanity" for Amazon deforestation


OCTOBER 12, 2021 / 4:08 AM / AFP

Paris — Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was accused on Tuesday of "crimes against humanity" at the International Criminal Court (ICC) for his alleged role in the destruction of the Amazon, the first case seeking to explicitly link deforestation to loss of life. Planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions from burning and industrial-scale agriculture in the Amazon are higher than the total annual emissions of Italy or Spain. Deforestation in the region already releases more CO2 than the rest of the Amazon can absorb.

AllRise, an environmental law organization, filed the official complaint at The Hague-based court Tuesday morning. They asked for legal proceedings against Bolsonaro and his administration for actions "directly connected to the negative impacts of climate change around the world."

Did U.S. consumers help fuel the Amazon fires?

The complaint accuses the Brazilian leader of waging a widespread campaign resulting in the murder of environmental defenders and of endangering the global population through emissions caused by deforestation.

It harnesses the growing field of climate attribution science, which allows researchers to prove a link between extreme weather events, on the one hand, and global heating and environmental degradation, on the other.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro looks on during the Armed Forces General Officers promotion ceremony at Planalto Palace in Brasilia on December 9, 2019.

EVARISTO SA/GETTY

The team behind it said that Bolsonaro's administration had sought to "systematically remove, neuter, and eviscerate laws, agencies and individuals that serve to protect the Amazon".

Bolsonaro calls new Amazon fires a "lie"

It said that Bolsonaro was responsible for approximately 400,000 hectares (about 1,500 square miles) of lost rainforest each year, and that he had presided over monthly deforestation rates that had accelerated by up to 88% since taking office on January 1, 2019.

Bolsonaro's office did not respond to a request for comment from AFP.

"Consequences that arrive globally"

The team of experts estimated that emissions attributable to the Bolsonaro administration due to rampant deforestation will cause over 180,000 excess heat-related deaths globally this century.

"In the last few years, climate science has come a long way in being able to provide evidence of specific causal relationships between emissions of greenhouse gases and the consequences that arrive globally as a result," Rupert Stuart Smith, from the University of Oxford's Sustainable Law Program, told AFP.

While there have been at least three other complaints by indigenous groups against Bolsonaro at the ICC since 2016, organizers say this one is the first to highlight the clear link between forest loss and global human health.

"What's happening in Brazil — mass deforestation — we want to understand the causal link to the global climate," AllRise founder Johannes Wesemann told AFP. "It is exactly what the Rome Statute defines as a crime against humanity: the intentional destruction of the environment and environmental defenders."

The point of the complaint was "not to speak on behalf of any Brazilian, but rather to show the global gravity of mass deforestation," said Wesemann.

"Knowingly aiding and abetting" murder

Lawyer Nigel Povoas, who has led prosecution of some of the most notorious international criminals, said the complaint was levelled against several individuals within Bolsonaro's administration.

"We're focusing on the most senior actors responsible," he told AFP. "We're saying as a result of the state policy that they are pursuing they are knowingly aiding and abetting the perpetrators on the ground committing crimes such as murder, persecution and other inhumane acts."

The ICC has no obligation to consider complaints filed to the prosecutor by individuals or groups, and does not comment on them until the prosecutor announces that it has started a preliminary examination into a specific matter.

Maud Sarlieve, a human rights and international criminal lawyer said that were the Bolsonaro complaint to be pursued, it would send a clear message to individuals such as CEOs of fossil fuel companies: "Beware."

"The law is now allowing us to go after those who are ruthlessly and knowingly pursuing policies which clearly result in environmental destruction and an impact on civilian population," she said.

International Energy Agency forecasts decline in Canadian oil demand coming

Author of the article:
The Canadian Press
Mia Rabson
Publishing date:Oct 16, 2021 •

Steam rises from the Syncrude Canada Ltd. facility in the Athabasca oilsands near Fort McMurray, Alberta.

 PHOTO BY BEN NELMS/BLOOMBERG FILES


OTTAWA — Environment groups in Canada say governments and the oil and gas industry can no longer pretend there is an economic case for expanding oil production after the latest international energy forecast suggests demand for Canada’s oil will fall before the end of this decade.

But the International Energy Agency also said there are new opportunities for oil and gas companies to turn their “skills, competencies and resources” into a competitive advantage for clean energy technology. For its part, the Canadian oil industry argues it is more committed to being cleaner and greener than most other producers and should be used as an investment to help fund clean technology in other areas.

The International Energy Agency projected in a report this week that under existing climate policies oil production in Canada will grow by about 700,000 barrels a day by 2030 before it starts to recede.

If Canada implements the new policies the Liberals have promised — including mandating more electric car sales and capping emissions from oil and gas production — available Canadian oil will fall by 100,000 barrels a day by 2030.

And in a net zero policy push — where any greenhouse gases still emitted are captured by 2050 — oil supply will fall even faster.

Globally, the IEA predicts that with existing policies, oil demand will peak around 2030. With policies to meet more stringent targets by 2030, demand will peak by 2025. Under net zero, demand peaks even earlier and will be cut by one-fifth in fewer than 10 years, and by more than 75 per cent by mid-century.

Increasingly, Canada’s higher cost, more emissions-intensive oil will be pushed out of the market by cheaper oil in the Middle East and Russia, the report suggests.

“The IEA report does a good job of saying, ‘Look, particularly countries like Canada where it’s high cost, high carbon, we’re going to get squeezed,”‘ said Keith Stewart, a senior energy strategist at Greenpeace Canada.

The international agency is also clear that the only scenario where the world hits its Paris climate agreement goal to minimize global warming is the net-zero plan, and said in that case there is no good investment to be made in expanding oil production after this year. That’s not just in Canada, but globally.

Stewart said the report highlights it is time for Canada “to manage the decline of the oil industry and the growth of alternatives.”

“I think this report very clearly says, you’re going to sell less oil, deal with it,” he said. “And the minute we actually start planning for that … then we can get on with the job and reap those benefits.”

Tim McMillan, president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, said Canada’s oil and gas industry is a “leading investor in emissions reduction and clean technology” and investments in it will both support hundreds of thousands of jobs and provide the government with revenues to fund clean technology.

“As we watch nations around the world today struggling with an energy crisis and failing to provide responsible energy to their citizens, Canada must step up and offer a safe haven for natural gas and oil investment, so our trading partners do not have to rely on others who are not as committed to lowering their emissions compared to Canada for their energy needs,” he said.

Natural gas demand is not as quickly affected as oil, in part because many countries — including Canada — are going to use it to replace coal as a less-dirty source of electricity, or to make hydrogen.

But even so, in a net zero world, demand for natural gas will stop growing around 2025, and the IEA predicts there are no new natural gas projects needed beyond those already in development. By 2050, it expects natural gas will provide only one per cent of the world’s power, down from 20 per cent today.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2021.

#VOTENO

Alberta set to vote on rejecting equalization, premier says it's about leverage




EDMONTON —

Albertans will cast ballots Monday in a referendum that is technically about rejecting equalization but has morphed into more of a Prairie festivus airing of grievances.

HE LIES HE HAS NO SHAME
"(This) is not about partisan politics," Premier Jason Kenney has said at various times in recent days, when asked about the referendum question.

RIGHT WING GRIEVANCE POLITICS- FIREWALL ALBERTA PART DEUX
"This is about whether or not Alberta should push hard to get a fair deal."

It's symbolism, he said, but also a bargaining chip.

"The point of it is to get leverage for constitutional negotiations with the federal government about reform of the entire system of fiscal federalism, which treats Alberta so unfairly," he said.

The question is straightforward for voters, who are also heading to the polls in municipal elections: Should the section of the Constitution enshrining the principle of equalization payments be removed?

Equalization sees some tax money collected by the federal government redistributed from wealthier provinces to lower-income ones to ensure a basic level of service for all.

Kenney has said Alberta has concerns over billions of dollars its residents pay, while provinces such as British Columbia and Quebec obstruct oil and pipeline projects that underpin that wealth.

Alberta Finance Minister Travis Toews estimated the provincial contribution at $20 billion a year in a public letter this week. It was signposted by the phrases "more unfair," "clearly unfair," "fundamentally unfair," "lack of fairness" and "fight for fairness."

Political scientist Jared Wesley, the lead on a recent University of Alberta survey on referendum voting intentions, said the poll suggested the Yes side remains in the lead. But he said a disturbingly high percentage doesn’t understand how equalization works (44 per cent), wrongly believes Quebec gets the most per capita (85 per cent), and fails to understand Ottawa does not need provincial buy-in to change the equalization formula (62 per cent).

"I don't blame Albertans for being confused," said Wesley. "They've been fed a lot of misinformation by governments in this province for a lot of decades, and that’s showing up in our research."

Wesley said it's a muddy referendum question designed to deliver "strategic ambiguity" for the United Conservative government as it seeks broad leverage.

But leverage, he said, is not what you think you have. Rather, it's what others think you have.

He said the rest of Canada is seeing a province that has received generous federal COVID-19 funding, has called in the military to rescue its COVID-19-ravaged health system, and has seen Ottawa literally buy the Trans Mountain pipeline to help its oil industry.

"As much as the premier and Yes supporters are out there saying, 'we want a fair deal,' the rest of Canada doesn't look at it that way," said Wesley.

"I've called this the festivus referendum," he added, referencing the fictive secular holiday made famous in the TV sitcom "Seinfeld," when family members gather around a metal pole to swap festering complaints.

Bill Bewick, head of Fairness Alberta, a group stumping for a Yes vote, said critics confuse the message being sent with the more important principle of sending a message.

He said equalization is profoundly unfair to Alberta and that a referendum is a legal, practical, effective method for Albertans to get Ottawa’s attention while providing a handy release valve for those who would otherwise seek more radical alternatives to make their voices heard.

"(The vote) is people speaking and expressing their displeasure."

Bewick said a Yes vote from Alberta could push other provinces to pressure the federal government for meaningful changes to improve the equalization formula for all.

"It can get the ball rolling," he said.

Some Yes supporters, including ousted UCP backbencher Drew Barnes, worry that with Kenney's low popularity numbers the No vote will get a boost from those who want to send a message to the premier.

"There is no question that the premier has failed our province on a variety of issues," wrote Barnes in an open letter on social media.

"He is the least popular premier in Canada for good reason. However, on Oct. 18th I would encourage Albertans to focus on the bigger picture."

University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, who has taken the No side in recent debates with Bewick, said Alberta already has the power to discuss its equalization concerns with Ottawa.

But he said the referendum question — on its face — is a dismaying rejection of long-held Alberta values toward fellow Canadians.

"Alberta (through its government) has always and consistently supported the principle of equalization," said Tombe.

"It's unfortunate that Kenney is asking us to reject it."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2021

Dean Bennett, The Canadian Press

COVID-19 trackers warn Alberta not out of fourth wave after week of declining numbers

Author of the article: Dylan Short
Publishing date: Oct 16, 2021 •

An Alberta government billboard advertisement promotes vaccination and adherence to COVID-19 rules. 

PHOTO BY GAVIN YOUNG/POSTMEDIA
Article content

Several COVID-19 forecasters are warning that Alberta is not yet out of the fourth wave despite a week of dropping numbers.

The past week has seen active cases in the province drop to below 13,000 for the first time since Sept. 1 while hospitalizations dropped to 1,000 with 229 patients in the ICU. All of those numbers are down from their marks at the beginning of the week with the province’s most recently reported R-value remaining below 1 at .92. Health officials, including Alberta Health Services president Dr. Verna Yiu, said they are feeling more optimistic about the overall situation than they did several weeks ago.

Tyler Williamson, a biostatistician with the University of Calgary’s Centre for Health Informatics, said recent numbers are encouraging but it is too early to declare the fourth wave over.

“It’s too early to say for sure that we’re on the backside of the fourth wave. We cannot say that based on what we see,” said Williamson. “We actually saw that a few times through waves two and three, where there were a set of days where it looked like maybe it’s going to turn and it would turn into (…) a little valley on the way still up.”


He said that it will be important to watch numbers this coming week and see if there is a post-Thanksgiving spike. Williamson said another week of data would help paint a fuller picture of the overall situation and he will be looking at the R-value, which he said has recently been calculated to be above the 1 threshold more recently than the province’s last report.

Williamson also said the seven-day rolling averages will need to continue to drop.

In the meantime, he urged Albertans to continue to follow public health measures in place and to not celebrate too early.

“We really need to see the hospitalization ICU coming down,” said Williamson.

Hospitalizations remain much higher than at any point during the first three waves of COVID-19 in Alberta.

Dean Karlen with the BC COVID-19 modelling group agreed with Williamson that it is still too early to declare victory over the fourth wave, despite recent positive signs.

“Our analysis doesn’t rely on case data so much as looking at daily admissions to hospitals,” said Karlen. “When we looked at that data last week, it showed a tremendous turnaround, like the peak had just passed the week prior. So it was a little bit uncertain. You’d like to get a little more data to be confident of that statement.”

He said given the current rate of decline in hospitalizations, he expects numbers to become more manageable on the front line in several weeks’ time. He said people will need to continue to respect social distancing and following public health measures to keep the current trajectories in place.

CAVEAT EMPTOR

Ontario woman who bought $700 computer still paying it off seven years later

Pat Foran

CTV News Toronto

 Consumer Alert Videojournalist
 Thursday, October 14, 2021 

The catch in 'buy now, pay later' plans



NOW PLAYING
Offers to 'buy now and pay later' may sound like a great deal, but can become very costly if you miss the deadline to pay back the loan.


TORONTO -- An Ontario woman who bought a $700 computer through a "buy now and pay later" loan is still chipping away at her debt seven years later.

Offers to "buy now and pay later" sound like a great idea and often allow you to enjoy something right away before you have to pay for it.

You can often delay payments for one to two years and financing options come in the form of a promotional offer, interest rate deferral or a revolving credit plan.

Related Stories
Pattie Lovett-Reid: Buy now, pay later? Don't do it!

But they also come with a lot of fine print and if you miss the promotional period deadline to pay back a loan, even by a day, you could have to pay mountains of interest.

"I needed a computer for school and I didn't have the money to buy one," said Allison of Brampton, who asked us not to use her full name.

Allison said in 2014 she was attending school and needed a laptop and was told if she couldn’t pay for the computer she could finance it.

"I wasn't able to pay the full cost of the computer at the time and I was made aware that there were financing options," said Allison.

Allison said seven years ago the laptop had a purchase price of $723. She paid $23 per month for 90 months for a total of more than $2,000.

She was shocked to find out this year she still owed $397 for the computer, because she didn’t realize she signed up for a revolving loan and had mainly been paying interest charges.

"So it was quite a surprising predicament for me. I thought how is that even possible? I've paid for this computer four times already," said Allison.

CTV News Toronto reached out to the financing company and a spokesperson said "Customers that use this revolving credit take advantage of our deferred interest promotions. Most pay off their balance prior to the promotional expiration and thus avoid paying interest."

Pattie Lovett-Reid CTV News' Chief Financial Commentator said people have to be careful signing up for some deferred loans because if they miss the promotional deadline to pay back funds they could be “paying interest, on top of interest, on top of interest."

There are many different financing options including no interest charges for 12 months to two years, but if you don't pay the amount in full by the deadline you could have to pay up to 30 per cent interest over the entire loan period.

"It's often zero down no payments for a year, but a year from now you just don't know what your financial situation will be and some could find themselves in an even worse off position," said Lovett-Reid.

Before agreeing to any deferred payment plan make sure you have a good understanding of the terms and conditions. Allison didn’t, which is why she wanted to share her story to warn others.

If you sign up for a deferred payment plan make sure you write down the date when the promotional offer ends so you can pay the money back before it expires.


Always try to pay more than the minimum payment each month or the item you bought could cost you triple it's original selling price.

 Nova Scotia

How well is your water? N.S. panel to discuss climate change impacts on groundwater

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'It's starting to impact individuals, it's starting to impact

 homeowners, it's starting to impact industry'

Haley Ryan · CBC News · Posted: Oct 17, 2021 

About 42 per cent of Nova Scotians are on wells, and scientists say climate change impacts like drought, flooding and seawater intrusion will affect everyone differently depending on where they live and their type of well. (Ivanoh Demers/CBC)

Climate change is already affecting the volume and quality of water that's coming out of many taps in Nova Scotia.

Drought, saltwater intrusion, and flooding are just some of the issues that scientists predict will become worse in the coming years for the 42 per cent of Nova Scotians who rely on groundwater from private wells.

"With climate change, we will see more extreme events and we will see more impacts on our shallow and even our deep groundwater resources," said Barret Kurylyk, an associate professor at Dalhousie University and Canada Research Chair in Coastal Water Resources.

Kurylyk will be joined by Gavin Kennedy, a hydrogeologist with the Department of Natural Resources and Renewables, in a virtual panel on Sunday to talk about how climate change could impact water supply.

The event is being hosted by the Rural Water Watch Association and will be streamed on their Facebook page at 7 p.m.

Barret Kurylyk is shown at a saltwater intrusion project site on Sable Island. (Barret Kurylyk)

With changes in air temperature, precipitation and sea level rise all part of climate change, Kurylyk said extreme events that used to take place maybe once in 100 years may occur every 10 years.

Rainfall changes, or precipitation arriving as snow as opposed to rain, all impact how water is absorbed into the earth and then down into the groundwater where it's drawn up by wells, Kurylyk said.

Along the Nova Scotia coast, it's common to find areas where salty ocean water mixes in with groundwater, Kurylyk said.

He said that's fine when people know where that is and avoid it. But with climate change and sea level rise, that "salty zone" is pushed further inland and upward, closer to wells. 

"It's starting to impact individuals, it's starting to impact homeowners, it's starting to impact industry. I think we live in that age of unprecedented change already," Kurylyk said.

Those in southwestern Nova Scotia have already felt these impacts. The area has a much higher percentage of people on dug wells, which are shallower than drilled ones and more sensitive to drought.

• Memories of 2016 drought linger as water shortages persist in southwest Nova Scotia

• Time to think of long-term solutions to water shortages, says N.S. minister

Records from the Yarmouth meteorological station show the summer of 2016, which saw a major drought, was the driest ever in this part of the province. Kennedy said 2018 and 2020 also now rank in the area's top 10 driest summers.

The province estimates that about 90 per cent of well owners have drilled wells in Nova Scotia based on construction logs, Kennedy said, but added that's likely slightly off since dug wells are underrepresented in their data.

While their records show about 25 per cent of people on wells in southwest Nova Scotia have shallow ones, it's "probably even higher," Kennedy said.

Kennedy said part of the panel will be letting people know how to handle dry wells, saltwater intrusion or flooding, which can create an unsafe situation where bacteria and harmful viruses can enter a well.

Gavin Kennedy is a hydrogeologist with the Department of Natural Resources and Renewables. (CBC)

As part of his work, Kennedy has helped develop online maps showing risk levels of drought and seawater intrusion, where well owners can look up their own property.

While it's an emerging area of research, Kennedy said there is also evidence showing that warmer conditions brought by climate change could mean greater survival rates for bacteria and viruses in wells.

It's vital to maintain the well's infrastructure and ensure it's tightly sealed, Kennedy said.

More saltwater mixing into well water could also release more naturally occurring contaminants like arsenic and uranium, he said. Studies have shown links to an increased risk of bladder and kidney cancer with arsenic, and impaired kidney function with uranium.

Water conservation will be another key to avoiding dry wells as climate change continues, Kennedy said, which is already the norm in places like British Columbia and California.

A water sample taken during a Rural Water Watch community testing project in Greenville, N.S. (Rural Water Watch)

He added that the other Atlantic provinces share the same concerns about climate change impacts on wells, while issues can vary in other areas.

Fred Bonner of Rural Water Watch said regular water testing is vital to make sure people aren't getting sick from bacteria or chemicals in their water at all times, but climate change impacts make the situation "even more dire for many residents."

Their group has worked with five communities across the province so far to handle the cost and organization of testing local wells, Bonner said, breaking down barriers for those who are low income or older people who can't get around.

Surging oil price ‘not a game-changer’ for the Bank of Canada

Jeff Lagerquist
Fri., October 15, 2021

Climbing crude prices are “not a game-changer” for the Bank of Canada heading into its October rate decision, according to the latest analysis from Capital Economics. The London-based research firm expects the rise will be short-lived, and Canada’s central bank will remain focused on “more important indicators” like wage growth and soaring inflation.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil (CL=F)​​ is set for its eighth consecutive weekly gain, the North American benchmark’s longest winning streak since 2015. WTI rose 1.14 per cent to US$82.24 per barrel as of 11:44 a.m. ET on Friday, a day after the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted the “ongoing energy crisis has prompted a switch to oil that could boost demand.”

West Texas Intermediate oil has pushed higher through much of 2021.

“While demand has risen alongside the recovery in the global economy, the elevated level of prices is mainly because supply is still depressed, reflecting the fall in U.S. output, which was exacerbated in recent months by Hurricane Ida, as well as OPEC’s production cuts,” Capital Economics senior Canada economist Stephen Brown wrote in a research note on Friday.

“Due to the potential for supply to recover, particularly now there is an added incentive from higher prices, we continue to expect WTI to decline to US$57 by the end of 2022.”

Brown says the Bank is set to use a WTI price of US$80 per barrel for its forecasts in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR), up from US$70 in the last MPR. However, he sees few reasons for a material upgrade to its view on the sector.

“Canadian companies still seem intent on using the rise in prices to pay down their debts rather than fund new investment. Those debts are substantial, with the oil and gas sector accounting for much of the overall rise in corporate debt in the past decade,” he wrote.

Brown also cites long-standing headwinds for the sector, including a lack of pipeline capacity, and rising concern about climate change. He also notes that the oil, gas and mining sector accounts for “a disproportionately low share of jobs.”

“As governor Tiff Macklem reiterated again last week, the more important indicators to watch are wage growth and inflation expectations,” he wrote. “We are therefore doubtful that the further rise in oil prices will move the needle much in terms of the Bank’s approach to policy in the next couple of years.”

The Bank is set to make its latest rate announcement on Oct. 27.

Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter @jefflagerquist.

Potash company, part owned by China, owes Sask. contractors millions

Chinese state enterprises own 10 per cent of Western Potash, which cited "worsening bilateral relations” as it fell behind on $33.1 million in bills.

Author of the article: Arthur White-Crummey

REGINA LEADER -POST
Publishing date: Oct 15, 2021 • 

Western Potash Milestone Phase 1 Project located approximately 30 kilometres southeast of Regina. PHOTO BY TROY FLEECE /Regina Leader-Post

A potash company partly owned by the Chinese state owes about $33.1 million in outstanding bills, including to several Saskatchewan companies, as it blames its cash crunch on COVID-19 and tensions between Canada and China.

Western Resources Corp. owns a quarter section of land near Gray, about 30 kilometres southeast of Regina. Its subsidiary, Western Potash Corp., began site clearing in November 2018 in preparation for a potash solution mine known as the Milestone Potash Project on the site.

But work has been suspended since last year, and land title records for the property show that contractors have put millions of dollars worth of builders’ liens on the property to secure their claims to outstanding payments for work on the project.

Companies with more than a million dollars worth of liens registered include MBG Buildings Inc., SNC-Lavalin, Supreme Steel LP and Saskatchewan-based Artisan Construction Services. Smaller amounts are owed to other Saskatchewan companies, including Prince Albert’s Broda Group, Regina’s Clifton Associates, Regina’s Westcan Vac Services, Moose Jaw’s Strictly Fences, Biggar’s AGI Envirotank and Yorkton’s Northern Mat & Bridge.

The largest sum, by far, is an $18 million lien by Stuart Olson Prairie Construction Inc. Most of the liens were registered in early-to-mid 2020, when the company began to face financial troubles.

Matthew Wood, vice president of technology with Western Potash, acknowledged that the money recorded in those liens is largely still owing. He regretted any negative impact on local business, and said Western Potash is doing everything in its power to minimize it. Wood said he’s “cautiously optimistic” that the company will be able to restart construction and pay its vendors by the end of this year.

“We hope, in a short amount of time, we can secure the financing, pay everyone back and then bring the benefits of this project in terms of environmental and potash to the province,” he said in a phone interview Thursday.

The project had relied on financing from the China Development Bank (CDB) — until international tensions turned off that tap.

“When the CDB withdrew its entire business from Canada at the end of 2019 due to the worsening bilateral relations between Canada and China, Western lost a major portion of the Project financing provided through the CDB,” the company said in a letter addressed to the RM of Lajord, where the property is located.

Though the letter does not get into specifics, bilateral relations soured after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested at the Vancouver airport in response to an extradition request to the United States. China later arrested and imprisoned two Canadians in what was widely viewed as a reprisal. All three have since been released, but the relationship remains strained.

Wood later played down the role of international politics in Western Potash’s financial travails. He said the state of bilateral relations did, however, make some private investors more hesitant.

Western Resources Corp. is majority owned by a Beijing-based private equity firm, Tairui Mining Inc. But the Chinese government has a significant stake through two state-owned enterprises: China BlueChemical Ltd. and Guoxin International Investment Corporations.

Wood said Western Potash is not controlled by the Chinese state. He said state-owned enterprises own a 10.1 per cent share. “So it’s a small minority,” he said.

The reeve of the RM of Lajord, Armond Gervais, seemed soured by the whole experience. It left him down on the whole idea of potash development in his community.

“If another one came along, I don’t know if we would be quite as interested,” Gervais said

.

Western Potash Milestone Phase 1 Project located approximately 30 kilometres southeast of Regina. 

PHOTO BY TROY FLEECE /Regina Leader-Post

After the CDB financing fell through, Western Potash suspended construction on the Milestone project in May 2020. It looked to its main shareholder for a loan. In the letter to the RM, it blamed COVID-19 for derailing those plans, as the pandemic bit into the shareholder’s cashflow.

“COVID certainly didn’t come at the right time, not only in terms of the general economics of the situation, but it forced a lot of investors to move their cash elsewhere or use their reserves,” said Wood.

Western Potash then began negotiations with other investors. But they made financing conditional on the company proving its technology by developing the caverns of the mine, according to the letter. Unfortunately, the project faced “unplanned shutdowns and premature equipment failures.”

Still, Wood projected confidence. He called it “very probable” that the conditions will be met and the financing secured this quarter. The company has also sold real estate it owns in Vancouver, and Wood said every dollar will go toward restarting construction so it can secure financing and repay creditors.

“We’re really committed to treating all the creditors fairly and equally, and we’ve been trying to be as transparent as we can and keep them updated on the situation,” he said, adding that the goal is paying the full amount, not a settlement for pennies on the dollar.

“I can confidently say we’re 100 per cent committed to paying all the outstanding amount and we plan to pay exactly in accordance with the purchase contracts,” said Wood.

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Contractors and vendors are not holding their breath. The Leader-Post spoke to executives or owners at three Saskatchewan-based companies who have liens on the property, and two seemed skeptical that they will see much of their money ever again. The third said he has already recouped a sizeable share of the lien amount. All three requested anonymity to talk about sensitive business matters.

“I’ve deemed it to be an uncollectible account, so I don’t put any energy into it,” said one. “They have been providing updates as best they can, but until you’ve got the cheque in your hands, what does that mean?”

Another called the situation “sad,” especially since he believes in Western Potash’s technology. He said an outstanding invoice for a few months is hardly unusual — but waiting two years for payment is another matter.

“It’s not good business,” he said.

Evergrande CEO in Hong Kong for restructuring, asset sale talks, sources say

By Clare Jim and Julie Zhu

© Reuters/Bobby Yip 

China Evergrande Group CEO Xia Haijun attends a news conference in Hong Kong

HONG KONG (Reuters) -Evergrande Group's chief executive is holding talks in Hong Kong with investment banks and creditors over a possible restructuring and asset sales, two people said, as the Chinese developer battles against default on more than $300 billion in debts.

CEO Xia Haijun, a confidant of chairman Hui Ka Yan and who runs Evergrande's day-to-day operations including financing, has been in Hong Kong, where the property firm has a major presence, for more than two months, the two sources told Reuters.

A third source said Xia was talking to banks and creditors in Hong Kong, but did not say what was being discussed.

Shenzhen-headquartered Evergrande, which is reeling under more than $300 billion in liabilities, has left its offshore investors in the dark about repayment plans after already missing three rounds of interest payments on its dollar bonds.

Xia's talks with investment banks and creditors in Hong Kong has not previously been reported.

One of the sources said Xia needed to communicate with foreign banks on loan extensions and repayments. The source declined to disclose the identity of the creditors that Xia had spoken to in recent days.

"Xia also needs to sort out how many off-balance sheet debts the group has offshore, because many were underwritten at subsidiary levels and he himself may not be even aware of (that)," he said. "Before that they cannot work on restructuring and talk to bondholders."

Evergrande has been scrambling to divest some of its assets to raise cash - efforts that have not yet yielded much success - as concerns have grown in recent weeks about a possible collapse and the impact on global markets and China's economy.

Chinese state-owned Yuexiu Property has pulled out of a proposed $1.7 billion deal to buy Evergrande's Hong Kong headquarters building over worries about the developer's dire financial situation, Reuters reported on Friday.

A Chinese central bank official said on Friday the spillover effect of Evergrande's debt problems on the banking system was controllable and the risk exposures of individual financial institutions were not big.

Evergrande and Xia did not respond to Reuters requests for comment.

The sources, who have direct knowledge of the development, declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

PUBLIC APPEARANCE

Evergrande Chairman Hui has not appeared in public in recent weeks or announced plans to address the group's woes, leaving investors wondering if they would have to book losses when the 30-day grace periods end this month for unpaid bond coupons.

Last month, the developer issued a statement saying Hui had urged company executives to ensure the quality delivery of properties and redemption of wealth management products.

Xia, who is also vice president of the board, joined the company in 2007 and is responsible for Evergrande's capital operation and management, as well as legal affairs and overseas affairs, according to the company's website.

He has been in Hong Kong since July, according to one of the sources. The second source said Xia had been meeting Chinese investment banks in the city to explore possible asset sales.

Evergrande, once China's top-selling developer, has said that it is looking to dispose of stakes in assets including its services and electric vehicle units to raise funds.

The developer is finalising details to sell 51% of its Evergrande Property Services unit to Hopson Development for HK$20 billion ($2.57 billion).

Investment bank Moelis & Co and law firm Kirkland & Ellis, representing bondholders who currently hold $5 billion worth of Evergrande nominal offshore bonds, demanded last week more information and transparency from Evergrande.

The developer said last month it had appointed Houlihan Lokey and Admiralty Harbour Capital as joint financial advisers to examine its financial options, as it warned of default risks amid plunging property sales.

($1 = 7.7792 Hong Kong dollars)

(Reporting by Clare Jim and Julie Zhu; Editing by Sumeet Chatterjee and Edmund Blair)

La Niña expected to bring 'bitterly cold' winter to western Canada

Much of Canada can expect the coldest winter since 2013-14, says meteorologist

Author of the article:
Washington Post
Matthew Cappucci
Publishing date:Oct 15, 2021 •

Pedestrian walks down Brunswick Street in Halifax as major storm blasts the Maritimes on Feb. 2017. A La Nina pattern forming in the Pacific Ocean is expected to bring wet weather to Canada's western coast this winter, while a polar vortex could be pushed from the North Pole to the Prairies. 

PHOTO BY ANDREW VAUGHAN/CANADIAN PRESS

After a months-long period of relative atmospheric balance between El Niño and La Niña, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday that La Niña has returned. It’s expected to stick around in some capacity through the winter and relax toward spring.

Calgarians and southern Albertans should expect a colder than usual winter with lots of snowfall in the mountains, according a new AccuWeather report.

The report published Thursday says a La Niña weather pattern forming in the Pacific Ocean is expected to bring wet weather to Canada’s western coast this winter, while a polar vortex could be pushed from the North Pole to the Prairies.

“I believe we may see at least three extreme blasts of bitterly cold air dropping down into the southern Prairies this winter,” meteorologist Brett Anderson said in the online report. “This winter will likely end up colder than the winter of 2018-19 and the coldest winter since 2013-14 in the region.”

Anderson said temperatures could fall to as low as -30 C during those times. He is predicting a winter that is -2 C colder than average in the southern Prairies, with Alberta and Saskatchewan seeing the largest decreases in temperatures.

Accuweather predicts increased snow storms in the eastern provinces of Ontario and Quebec thanks to the polar jetstream. However, the reports says above-average temperatures are likely in store in Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal.

“While this winter does not look all that cold from Ontario to Quebec, it will be cold enough to support many opportunities for significant snowfall this winter,” said Anderson. “I expect a favourable winter with solid snow bases across much of ski country in eastern Canada and especially across Quebec.”

Judah Cohen, an atmospheric scientist and the director of Atmospheric and Environmental Research in Boston, says it’s just too early to know how other atmospheric players may influence the season, especially in the east coast.

“The most impressive atmospheric feature [lately] has been this ridge of high pressure over Eastern Canada,” he wrote in a Twitter direct message. “It has acted like an immovable boulder in the jet stream, and if that feature stayed park over Eastern Canada for much of the winter we would all be saying ‘what winter?'”

He does think that could change, but a transition like that is something that weather models struggle to anticipate.

“Where that block relocates will could be potentially critical to how the winter begins and may even set the tone for the winter,” he wrote.

“Abundant snowfall is expected throughout much of ski country from the Coastal Range of British Columbia through the Rockies of western Alberta,” said Anderson.

The Farmer’s Almanac is predicting “fair weather” throughout most of October and November, with colder temperatures rolling over the Rocky Mountains and stormy weather forming in the Prairies shortly before December.

The stormy weather is expected due to what is known as La Niña conditions. La Niñas occur every three to five years when jet streams are amplified, ushering in colder, stormy weather. Last year also saw La Niña conditions form in Canada.

The intensifying La Niña should peak in magnitude, or strength, by the end of 2021. In brief, here are some of the key impacts La Niña could have in the coming months:

• Extending favorable conditions for Atlantic hurricane activity this fall;

• Worsening drought conditions in the U.S. Southwest through the winter and potentially elevating the fire risk through the fall;

• Raising the odds of a cold, stormy winter across the northern tier of the U.S. and mild, dry winter across the South;

• Increasing tornado activity in the U.S. Plains and South during the spring.

During La Niña winters, high pressure near the Aleutian Chain shoves the polar jet stream north over Alaska, maintaining an active storm track there.

La Niña first arrived in fall 2020 before fading away in May 2021. Neutral conditions, bridging the divide between La Niña and El Niño, prevailed through the early fall before the NOAA’s declaration of La Niña’s return Thursday.

This season is running about 54% ahead of average in the Atlantic, but 28% behind typical norms in the Pacific. Usually if air is rising somewhere and enhancing storm prospects, sinking elsewhere has the opposite effect.

Abundant snowfall is expected throughout much of ski country

The polar vortex, the zone of frigid air surrounding the Arctic, has been showing signs of weakening or becoming more unstable as of late. A weak, unstable vortex is more prone to unleashing frigid air over compared to one that is strong and stable and that tends to lock up cold over the high latitudes.

“Once the polar vortex weakens, it could be predisposed to further weakening in the coming weeks or months and we have a more severe winter,” Cohen wrote.

But Cohen also said there are influences that could halt any vortex weakening. He mentioned a scenario in which “the polar vortex rapidly strengthens as we approach the beginning of winter and we have an extended mild period to begin winter and possibly persisting right through the end of winter.”

Chris Fidler, left, of Halifax, and Ben Reigert, of Reading, walk out onto the ice at Sweet Arrow Lake, to fish on Saturday, Jan. 6, 2018, in Pine Grove, Pa. Freezing temperatures since December 26 have made for ideal ice fishing conditions. 

PHOTO BY DAVID MCKEOWN /AP

If La Niña lingers into spring, it could enhance the upcoming severe weather season in Tornado Country across the Great Plains and Deep South. There is a demonstrable link between La Niña and a more active severe weather season.

NP, Calgary Herald and The Washington Post’s Jason Samenow contributed to this report.