Sunday, November 05, 2023

Cloud service companies lock customers in while nickel-and-diming them

Gene Marks
Sun, 5 November 2023 


Netflix recently announced another price increase. It was just a couple of bucks. No big deal, right? Wrong.

This price increase comes after another announced increase back in 2022 and this time actually ranges from 16% to 20% depending on the service. Why is Netflix doing this? Because it can. Netflix is no dummy. It knows that almost all of its customers will stick with the service even though it’s costing a little more. And they’re right. I love Netflix, so I’m going to pay.

Netflix isn’t the only online service provider that’s increased prices in the past year or so. Big cloud is upping its prices everywhere. During this period Microsoft raised the prices of its Microsoft 365 office applications in various countries by about 9%. Its closest competitor in this space, Google, increased its Workspace monthly prices by as much as 20%. Salesforce.com, the leading provider of customer relationship management products, bumped up the monthly fees on many of its products by 9%.

Businesses getting internet service from Comcast are now seeing higher monthly charges and consumers getting their music from Spotify are now paying 10% more each month for its premium service. The largest providers of cloud storage and applications – Microsoft, IBM, Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud – all have increased their hosting and storage fees anywhere from 11% to as much as 50% compared with a year ago.

This is a business model unlike anything we’ve seen in the past and it’s awesome … for the software providers. But what about users? What about my small business?

Let’s say you’re a company that has invested significantly in one of these cloud platforms to run your business. You’ve got all your data there. You’ve built integrations, customizations and specialized applications. You’ve spent great amounts of money on consultants, experts and trainers to help your employees get the most from these platforms. Like Netflix and Spotify, you’re used to these products and value their familiarity. So when there’s a price increase you may grumble, but you’re not going to change. You know it would be too costly and too disruptive. So you just accept it.

A business model where a company can increase prices almost at will? That’s the cloud

A business model where a company can increase prices almost at will? That’s the cloud. Some say that security of our data is the biggest challenge when hosting in the cloud. But that’s not it. For most users, control is the real issue.

Because of the cloud, users get the most recent applications and software fixes in real time. They can easily access their information from anywhere and from just about any device. They can store their data with managed service providers who have more wherewithal and resources to secure and protect it. All of this is an improvement over having a server and a bunch of clunky Windows computers connected to it in your office that’s supported by some IT geek down the road.

But having all of these benefits comes with a great variable: what will be your future annual cost? That’s not up to you. It’s up to the technology industry. It’s not just the monthly fees that consumers and small businesses are paying today, but the monthly fees that we will be forced to pay tomorrow. We don’t have control over this.

Like Netflix, the big cloud providers and even smaller cloud-based software platforms can pretty much increase their prices at will. You may say that these companies need to be careful of a public backlash, and to some extent that’s true because whenever a well-known brand like Netflix or Microsoft raises prices there’s always some short-term media blowback.

But the media doesn’t pay much attention to the frequent monthly fee increases levied upon small businesses by unfamiliar, but just as important, vertical applications that control their orders, inventory, billings and payroll. For example Zoho, a lesser-known but popular customer relationship management provider, increased monthly fees by 15% last year. Xero, a cloud-based accounting application, bumped up its monthly fees by about 6%. Zendesk, a leading provider of cloud-based customer support applications, also increased its monthly fees.

How can we protect ourselves from these inevitable cost increases? We can’t. Unless you’re a huge company, you’re not going to be able to persuade your software vendor to lock into a multiyear agreement. And no software company is going to commit to holding prices the same. And unless the price has increased dramatically (which it never does, because these people know that small increments usually fly under the radar), you’re not going to endure the pain and suffering of moving to another cloud-based provider, especially when that provider is ultimately going to do the same thing to you.

For small businesses and consumers, that’s what’s wrong with the cloud. But for the tech industry and companies like Netflix, it’s a beautiful thing.
Scramble to keep UK wind farm project alive as developer mulls private power deals
WILL ØRSTED ABANDON UK LIKE NJ

Matt Oliver
Sat, 4 November 2023 

wind power

The developer behind one of Britain’s largest offshore wind farms is exploring ditching state subsidies in favour of private power deals as it scrambles to boost the project’s finances.

Ørsted has confirmed it may give up some government support that would apply to Hornsea 3, off the coast of Yorkshire, amid concerns that the subsidies it has been awarded are too low.

Instead, a spokesman said the company may seek to sell 25pc of the scheme’s power on a so-called merchant basis – where it receives no state support but can potentially reap bigger returns.

This would amount to selling about 700 megawatts of the wind farm’s planned 2.8 gigawatt (GW) output, a total which is enough to power three million homes.

The move comes as Ørsted’s bosses scramble to boost the viability of the scheme ahead of a final investment decision, expected by the end of this year.

The offshore wind industry has been hammered by rising costs for materials and equipment, as well as higher interest rates.

There are concerns that past subsidies awarded by the Government are now not generous enough to support projects given current costs.
Subsidy deals are structured as contracts for difference (CfDs), which guarantee developers a “strike price” for the power they generate.

When power is sold for less than the agreed price the Government tops it up, while companies are required to pay back the difference when prices go above that level.

These deals are used across the offshore wind industry as a way to guarantee a project’s long-term income and make the projects less risky for investors to support.

Since Hornsea 3’s CfD and others were agreed, the offshore wind industry has been buffeted by surging costs and there are fears that some projects will be loss-making for years into the future.

Some schemes have already been put on hold, including Vattenfall’s Norfolk Boreas project.

On Friday, bosses at Ørsted told financial analysts they were examining an option to pass over 25pc of the CfD contract so the company would instead be free to sell power from the scheme for a higher market rate.

This could potentially boost returns from the scheme – assuming the company can secure better prices for the power privately than what it is guaranteed under Hornsea 3’s CfD.

Ørsted, the world’s biggest offshore wind developer, has insisted it intends to press ahead with Hornsea 3 in “all scenarios” but has yet to take a final decision.

The project is scheduled to begin generating in 2026 and has been awarded a subsidy deal worth about £45 per megawatt hour in today’s prices – less than what was offered in the most recent subsidy auction.

The pool of potential buyers for the 700 megawatts of power on offer is likely to be confined to heavyweight companies with big electricity demands.

Ørsted has previously struck power purchase agreements with Amazon for undisclosed rates, providing about 360 megawatts of power to the internet shopping behemoth, which also runs massive data centres for its Amazon Web Services division. The deals sourced power from the company’s onshore wind farms in Scotland.
Kathryn Porter, an independent energy consultant and founder of Watt Logic, said Ørsted faced a difficult choice between “locking in at a really low level of return or taking bigger risks and being able to make more money”.

She added: “They may take a view that they can get the project over the line because electricity prices will be high enough that they can make a decent enough return.

“Experience to date, however, shows that UK power market investors do not have much appetite for risk.”

A key risk is whether the Government would extend the Electricity Generator Levy – which affects receipts from power sold at more than £75 per megawatt hour – beyond March 2028.

Ørsted was threatened with a credit downgrade by ratings agency S&P last week after taking huge writedowns on the value of its offshore wind projects in the US.

The turmoil in the industry has cast serious doubt over the UK government’s target to reach 50GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030. A subsidies auction this year received no bids amid complaints that the guaranteed power price offered by the Government was too low.

Tom Glover, country chair of RWE’s UK arm, said the prices offered to wind farm operators must rise by as much as 70pc to entice companies to build again.
FASCIST
Hungary’s Judit Varga commends Rwanda plan against 'woke' EU elite

Verity Bowman
Sat, 4 November 2023 

Ms Varga is reportedly set to run in the European Parliament election next year as Fidesz party’s lead candidate - JOHN THYS/AFP

Viktor Orban’s right-hand woman hailed Suella Braverman’s “brave” plan to send migrants to Rwanda as she took aim at the EU’s “ideology-driven migration policy”.

Judit Varga said she “commended” the policy, which is currently the subject of a battle with the Supreme Court, and that it is important to “think outside of the box”.

“A politician should be brave enough to have a true belief that what you are doing is good for the nation,” she told The Telegraph.

Like Ms Braverman, Ms Varga is a trained lawyer, and both are well-known personalities in Brussels for their criticism of EU institutions.

Ms Varga has risen quickly within Mr Orban’s ranks in recent years. She is set to run in the European Parliament election next year as Fidesz party’s lead candidate after resigning as the country’s justice minister.

Ms Varga has enthusiastically involved herself in Hungary’s battle against the European Union, defending policies that have targeted migrants and upholding a “family first” model of society.

She rallied against the Court of Justice of the European Union after it ruled that Budapest broke EU laws designed to protect refugees by deporting them to the Serbian border.

She told the Telegraph: “We have to regain our sovereignty, we have to be strong in our beliefs.

“At the end of the day, it is the strong nations who make up this European Union, it’s not the European institutions.”

At odds over migration

Budapest has introduced a slew of migration laws in recent years that are considered deeply controversial in Brussels, including one that bans people and organisations from helping migrants apply for asylum. Prime Minister Orban, who in 2018 described migrants as “Muslim invaders”, has always been unapologetic about these policies.

The difference between asylum and migration must be carefully considered, Ms Varga said.

“I think it’s a good direction to realise that you cannot tackle every challenge of migration ... Asylum is a human right, but migration is not a human right.

“The open-border strategy, the ideology-driven migration policy, causes chaos for our societies.”

In 2015, fed up with what Budapest claimed was the EU’s inaction against migration to the continent from the Middle East and Africa, Mr Orban announced the construction of a 4-metre-high fence to block off 320km of its border.

Budapest said it was not just a barrier for Hungary’s protection, but for the rest of the EU, although many objected to it on humanitarian and environmental grounds.

“It cost €1.7 billion and only one per cent reimbursed by the EU. It’s not right. We are protecting the whole of Schengen... We were slapped in the face,” Ms Varga said.

“In Hungary, when it comes to migration, we also have a very firm stance, in line with society’s answer to ‘Do you agree to live with those masses of foreign and culturally foreign people?’ The answer is no, I have a right to say no to illegal migration.”
‘Another Newspeak’

Similarly to Ms Braverman, Ms Varga has also spoken out against what she deems “woke culture”, likening it to Hungary’s communist rule, which ended in 1989.

“We lived under communism, we know what Newspeak is,” she said. “Then we finally got rid of the chains of Communism, and we entered the free world ... we were quite disappointed because we saw that there’s another Newspeak, which is political correctness.

She added: “The fundament of today’s exaggerated wokeism is the falling apart of the texture of society, which is the family, and the model of the family.”

These issues will be at the core of the 2024 EU elections, Ms Varga believes, casting the vote as a war between the politically correct elite and those who are not afraid to stand up for “common sense”. Without Britain, Ms Varga said the EU now faces a German-Franco axis that wants to erode the individual identities of the member nations.

“I always loved the big counterbalance of the UK by being a member of the European Union,” she said. “For central Europeans, you were the role model of how to behave.”

Poland also poses a challenge to Hungary’s genre of right-wing ideology in the EU, after the Law and Justice Party was voted out in favour of Civic Platform, led by Donald Tusk, the former president of the European Council.

“The Polish election is a big warning,” said Ms Varga. “The objective of the liberal progressives is ‘let’s have everyone have the same opinion’.”
HEADHUNTED
Emma Hayes agrees to take USA job after announcing shock Chelsea resignation

Tom Garry
Sat, 4 November 2023 

Emma Hayes will take charge of the most successful international team in women's football history - Getty Images/Morgan Harlow

Emma Hayes, the most successful manager in Women’s Super League history, has agreed to become the United States head coach after announcing her shock decision to leave Chelsea.

Hayes, who has won an incredible six titles and five FA Cups, announced that she will leave Chelsea at the end of the season after 11 years at the helm.


US Soccer also wants Hayes to bring her assistant manager at Chelsea, New Jersey-born Denise Reddy, with her as a No 2 with the US, which would deal a secondary blow to Chelsea as many see her as a strong contender to succeed Hayes.

Hayes’s departure from Chelsea was officially announced by the club shortly after full-time at Aston Villa, where her side had just won 6-0 to go top of the WSL.

The Chelsea players learnt of the news that Hayes is leaving whilst in the dressing room following Saturday’s emphatic victory. The news is said to have stunned players and many non-football staff too, with Hayes being a hugely popular figure at the club.

A statement from Chelsea, issued shortly after the victory over Villa, read: “Chelsea FC can today confirm that highly decorated Chelsea Women’s manager Emma Hayes OBE will depart the club at the end of the season to pursue a new opportunity outside of the WSL and club football.”

Chelsea chairman Todd Boehly and co-controlling owner Behdad Eghbali said: “Emma’s contribution to Chelsea cannot be understated. She has been a pioneer in women’s football and is hugely respected within the game. We look forward to continuing to work together over the coming months.”

Co-sporting directors Laurence Stewart and Paul Winstanley added: “Emma has been one of the biggest drivers of change in women’s football. Her achievements at Chelsea are unrivalled and will live in the club’s history forever.

“Given everything she has contributed to Chelsea in over a decade with the club, and the legacy she leaves behind, we would never stand in her way when she felt it was the right time to pursue a new challenge.

“We are pleased that she will remain with the club for the remainder of the season to give us the time to identify her successor.

“There will be plenty of time to celebrate Emma’s many achievements at the club and to give her the farewell she deserves, but for now, as she always has been, Emma will be solely focused on making this season as successful as possible for Chelsea.”

Hayes raises aloft the Women's FA Cup in 2021, one of 14 major trophies she won with Chelsea - Getty Images/Marc Atkins

Hayes is by far the longest-serving manager in the Women’s Super League, having been in charge of Chelsea since 2012, and the 47-year-old’s decision to leave west London is a seismic moment in the English women’s professional game.

She has won a record six Women’s Super League titles, including the past four in a row, and her side have been champions of England seven times when including 2017’s shorter, transitional WSL Spring Series title, won when the division was shifting from a summer calendar to its current winter season.

All of the 14 major trophies that have been lifted by Chelsea in their women’s club history have been won during Hayes’s tenure, plus the Community Shield in 2020. Their reign of dominance started with a league and FA Cup double in 2015, and she also took the club to the 2021 Women’s Champions League final.

Hayes has previously worked in America, coaching Long Island Lady Riders, Iona College and Chicago Red Stars prior to moving to Chelsea, and she has worked in the United States as a pundit for American television, such as during the 2022 Euros.

The US have been searching for a new head coach since August, when Vlatko Andonovski stepped down from the role following his side’s exit at the last-16 stage of the World Cup. The defending champions were beaten on penalties by Sweden.

They are the most successful international side in the women’s game to date, having lifted the World Cup a record four times.


 

SCOTLAND
Humza Yousaf ‘deeply relieved’ as parents-in-law escape Gaza

Fiona Parker
Fri, 3 November 2023 

Elizabeth and Maged El-Nakla travelled to Gaza to visit family before the conflict erupted - PA

The First Minister of Scotland spoke of his “deep personal relief” as his in-laws were finally able to leave Gaza through the Rafah Crossing.

Elizabeth and Maged El-Nakla, from Dundee, were among nearly a hundred British citizens approved to cross into Egypt on Friday morning.

The couple had travelled to Gaza to visit family before the conflict erupted and in recent weeks described living without clean water and “dwindling supplies”.

Confirming their safe crossing in an emotional joint statement with his wife Nadia El-Nakla, Humza Yousaf described the past four weeks as a “living nightmare” for their family.

The latest list published by the Palestinian border authority on Friday, included 92 people described as British citizens, out of a total of 127 people named under the UK section of the document.

Humza Yousaf and his wife, Nadia El-Nakla, said they are 'heartbroken at the continued suffering of the people of Gaza' - Getty Images

Stranded families, however, are still having to make the perilous journey to Rafah themselves – even if they are authorised to leave. One father told of how he was unable to book transport to take his wife and six children to the border because taxi and bus firms said the journey would be too dangerous.

Ibrahim Assalia said the Foreign Office had informed him on Thursday that he and his family would be approved to pass through the crossing on Friday. But despite approaching six taxi and bus firms, none would agree to take them on the 20-minute trip to Rafah.

Speaking to BBC’s World at One, he said: “No taxis wanted to pick up and when we said, ‘What’s wrong, why?.’ They said, ‘It’s very dangerous’.”

When Mr Assalia called the Foreign Office for advice, he says he was told that if it was dangerous it was “up to him” to decide whether to make the journey all not. He also claims he was informed that he would lose his right to leave Gaza if he failed to cross within seven days.

“That’s the truth you should get there within seven days otherwise you will lose your right,” Mr Assalia added. “We were put in a very critical situation, what to do, what to decide. I don’t know.”

‘Big relief to cross safely’

The Rafah Crossing first opened on Wednesday morning – after over three weeks of major diplomatic efforts to secure foreign nationals a safe passage out of Gaza.

Liverpool surgeon Dr Abdel Hammad, 67, said it was a “big relief” to cross safely into Egypt on Thursday. The doctor, who had been treating kidney transplant and dialysis patients in Gaza, told Sky News: “We left our compound at about 7am. We were able to cross the Palestinian side by 11.30 – it was very chaotic, a lot of people there.”

It is not known how many British citizens have passed through the Rafah Crossing into Egypt, although as few as two are thought to have done so on Wednesday. Yet with dozens still left stranded in the war-torn region, families are desperate for the evacuation programme to maintain its newfound pace.

Zaynab Wandawi, a 29-year-old British teacher travelled to Gaza with her husband and eight in-laws for a wedding two days before the Hamas attack. Lalah Ali Faten, her mother, told the Telegraph: “It is encouraging to see so many British people on the list today.

“We are all just praying that it will only be a matter of time before she will be able to leave.”

More than 9,000 people have been killed in the Gaza Strip since October 7, when Israel launched its military response to the atrocities committed by Hamas.

Security minister Tom Tugendhat said he could not go into detail about the number of Britons expected to cross the border.

He told Sky News: “I can give this absolute assurance that the UK Government from the Prime Minister, the Foreign Secretary, me and many others, have been absolutely committed to making sure we look after British citizens as best as we possibly can and we help to get them out of this incredibly dangerous situation.”

It is understood Foreign Secretary James Cleverly spoke to Ayman Safadi, minister of foreign affairs in Jordan, and UAE foreign minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan on Thursday about the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

He also spoke to Israel’s minister of strategic affairs, Ron Dermer, about ensuring British nationals are able to cross safely as soon as possible into Egypt, while reiterating the UK’s solidarity with Israel and its commitment to finding a two-state solution.
‘A living nightmare’

Mr Yousaf and Ms El-Nakla’s statement read: “We are very pleased to confirm that Nadia’s parents were able to leave Gaza through the Rafah Crossing this morning. We are grateful to all of those who have assisted our parents over the last few weeks, including the FCDO crisis team.

They added: “These last four weeks have been a living nightmare for our family, we are so thankful for all of the messages of comfort and prayers that we have received from across the world, and indeed from across the political spectrum in Scotland and the UK.

“Although we feel a sense of deep personal relief, we are heartbroken at the continued suffering of the people of Gaza.”

The Telegraph has approached the Foreign Office for a comment.

CNN Anchor Pulls Receipts to Expose GOP Rep’s Hypocrisy After Israel Bill

Justin Baragona
Fri, 3 November 2023 

CNN

CNN anchor Kate Bolduan came prepared with receipts on Friday when Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) attempted to dismiss the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office’s analysis that the House GOP’s Israel aid bill would add $26.8 billion to the national budget deficit.

While the South Carolina lawmaker fumed that he has “very little confidence in the CBO” because they “have an agenda to back up whatever view” the Biden administration presents, Bolduan pointed out that Norman previously touted the office’s findings when it suited him politically.

The Israel aid bill, which narrowly passed the House on Tuesday, kicked off Speaker of the House Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) new reign of leadership with a partisan fight, almost certainly delaying emergency military aid to Israel.

The bill provides $14.3 billion in aid to Israel but “offsets” this cost by cutting $14.3 billion in funds to the Internal Revenue Service.

Contradicting House Republicans’ supposed goal of not adding to the national debt, the CBO found that the legislation would increase the deficit by $26.8 billion over the next ten years. The IRS, citing the reduced capacity to audit wealthy corporations and enforce collections, claimed the cuts would cost the government $90 billion over the next decade.

Those trade-offs incensed Democrats, leaving the bill D.O.A. in the Senate and White House.

Speaker Mike Johnson’s First Act: Turning Israel Aid Into a Partisan Fight

Appearing on CNN News Central on Friday, Norman pushed back against Democratic criticism that the GOP is “conditioning aid to Israel,” claiming “Democrats are saying that they prefer the IRS agents over support for Israel.”

Bolduan, however, noted that while House Republicans are insisting that the cuts to the IRS are a “pay-for,” the CBO says the bill will add more to the deficit than just unconditionally sending the aid to Israel.

“I have very little confidence in the CBO,” Norman grumbled. “They have an agenda to back up whatever view the current administration has, so I don’t go with that.”

He went on to grouse that there’s “funding set aside for 80,000 IRS agents” and that it is an “outrage” for the Democrats not to have a “pay-for” when it comes to issuing any additional aid.

Piggybacking on Norman’s no-confidence declaration about the CBO and his description of it as a pro-Biden entity, Bolduan then brought up his past support for the office’s budgetary analysis when it seemingly served his political agenda.

“I have seen you, though, tout the CBO in supporting some of your efforts in the past,” she stated. “I was looking this morning—your office put out a press release from February of this year leaning on the CBO to make your point, calling it ‘a jaw-dropping report’ coming out from the CBO reaffirming what you have said about out-of-control spending and national debt for a long time.”

“So what changed?” Bolduan bluntly asked the conservative congressman.

Norman, for his part, attempted to spin his obvious hypocrisy by quickly pivoting to complaints about “wokeness” and the supposed unwillingness of the White House to propose spending cuts.

“Well, the debt ceiling numbers—the CBO can’t manipulate,” he said. “Now, they aren’t wrong 100 percent of the time nor are they right 100 percent of the time. But what I’m saying now is, let’s take the CBO’s numbers that if it does increase the deficit. Where in the Biden administration’s plan can they have an offset?”

Norman continued: “We have $1.7 trillion deficit this year, and where under any circumstances can they come to bring themselves to have an offset? They can’t cut anything. What about the woke agenda in the military? That’s dollars that can be spent on aid to Israel, and to be honest with you, on aid to Ukraine. But they just will not do that, and they’re intent on bankrupting the country, and we are tired of it here in the House, and particularly under Mike Johnson.”

The Daily Beast.
Opinion
When Britain most needed a decent leader, we had a derelict at the helm


Andrew Rawnsley
Sat, 4 November 2023

Photograph: Peter Nicholls/Reuters

If a government looks bad from the outside, it will be twice as rotten on the inside. I’ve found this a reliable rule of thumb over the years, but it underestimates the breathtaking depths of the dreadfulness of the reign of Boris Johnson. That looked ghastly from the outside, but was many times more grotesque on the inside.

Before the public inquiry into the handling of the Covid pandemic had taken a single minute of evidence, it was already established that he was a wholly unsuitable character to be leading the country through the gravest peacetime emergency in more than a century. We knew he was too selfish, too weak, too amoral, too capricious, too negligent and too frivolous. What the inquiry is adding to the familiar portrait of Mr Johnson is detailed and compelling testimony from people who were in the room about how utterly unfit – ethically, intellectually, temperamentally and in any other way you might mention – he was to be prime minister. His cabinet secretary, his principal private secretary, his most senior aide, his director of communications and his chief scientific adviser, very different personalities with very different perspectives, all agree on one thing: Mr Johnson was comprehensively incapable of doing the job.

When the first red flags about Covid are raised, he dismisses it as a “rubbish media hoax”, skips away on holiday for a fortnight and is distracted trying to finish a book on Shakespeare in order to pay bills for a costly divorce and his girlfriend’s expensive ideas about refurbishing the Downing Street flat. The book remains unpublished to this day and the furnishings became a scandal. When he belatedly begins to grasp that Covid is serious, he lurches from one position to its opposite, sometimes doing handbrake turns more than once in a single day, to the exasperation of everyone around him. One moment he is frightened enough about the virus to heed his scientific advisers. The next he is adopting an insouciantly callous view that Covid is “just nature’s way of dealing with old people” who “will die anyway soon” and they should “accept their fate”.

Johnson himself complains it has turned into “a totally disgusting orgy of narcissism”, which is like Caligula moaning that he can’t stand the sight of blood

Mirroring his character, the Johnson-era Downing Street is a nasty place dominated by macho posturers with unfounded self-regard. Sexism is rife, other toxic behaviours rampant and vicious vendettas constant. Mr Johnson himself complains it has turned into “a totally disgusting orgy of narcissism”, which is like Caligula moaning that he can’t stand the sight of blood. His chronic inability to make decisions on issues of critical national importance was the despair of everyone around him. Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, would return home to pour his grief into a diary he never intended for public consumption. “Quite bonkers,” he wrote of one conversation with the prime minister. “Ridiculous flip-flopping,” he shudders after another dire day in Downing Street. “One minute do more, next do nothing… It’s like bipolar decision-making.” In a further entry, he sighs: “Chaos as usual.”

The cabinet secretary, Simon Case, ventilated his angst to colleagues in messages saying “I am going to scream” and “We look like a terrible, tragic joke”. It was a joke with a punchline that was literally a killer.

One revelation from Dominic Cummings’s testimony is that his former boss could out-trump Donald Trump in his delusions about the virus. The prime minister of the UK circulated a YouTube video of a man using a hairdryer to blast hot air up his nostrils and asked Sir Patrick and Professor Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, whether this might be a miracle cure for the disease.

When the country most needed a decent, diligent and decisive prime minister, we had a derelict at the helm. The testimony is an eviscerating indictment of Mr Johnson and an indelible stain on the reputation of everyone in the Tory party and its media who enabled him. It is no less damning about the structures that are supposed to be in place to protect the country from such a terrible prime minister. The UK was unprepared to handle a rogue pathogen or a rogue leader and had the huge misfortune to be afflicted with both at the same time.

One of the checks and balances on a prime minister going totally off the rails is supposed to be the civil service. “Speaking truth to power” has traditionally been part of the remit, and the voice needed to be especially insistent when the power was being wielded so atrociously. This didn’t happen and it is not the only dismal failure by the senior echelons of the mandarinate. Helen MacNamara, deputy cabinet secretary during the pandemic, confessed to the inquiry that she would “find it hard to pick one day” when Covid rules were “followed properly” at Number 10. And she knows of what she speaks because it was she who carted in a karaoke machine for one of the infamous lockdown-busting parties. Her responsibilities at the time – reader, I weep – included government propriety and ethics.

The two most important officials in the life of a prime minister are his principal private secretary and the cabinet secretary. If Martin Reynolds, the private secretary, had been performing his role appropriately he would have insisted to the prime minister that everyone in Number 10 had to be extremely careful to ensure they were strictly adhering to the Covid laws and regulations that they were imposing on the nation to contain a deadly disease. Rather than do everything he could to prevent the scandal that became known as Partygate, it was “Party Marty” who sent out the invitations to the notorious “bring-your-own booze” gathering.

The cabinet secretary cuts an even more abject figure. Material published by the inquiry records Britain’s most senior civil servant telling colleagues that he is “at the end of my tether” with a prime minister who makes an effective response to the crisis “impossible” by changing “strategic direction every day”. The cabinet secretary is expected to be the wise man of government and a figure with sufficient gravitas to cajole a bad PM to correct his ways. Mr Case comes over as a grizzling child so devoid of authority that he bleats: “Am not sure I can cope with today. Might just go home.

Number 10’s disdain for the cabinet was expressed by Mr Cummings with characteristically pathological profanity when he scorned ministers as “morons”

The cabinet is supposed to be a vital safeguard against a rotten leader, but a striking feature of the inquiry is how little it features in events. For sure, there’s been a lot of Matt Hancock, none of it good, a man described by witnesses as “slippery”, “a proven liar” and obsessed “with media bullshit over doing his job”. Some of the most chilling testimony came from Simon Stevens, chief executive of NHS England at the time. He revealed that if hospitals became overwhelmed, Mr Hancock wanted it to be him, rather than medical professionals, who decided who got to live and who would be left to die. Given how catastrophically he failed to protect care homes, thank your god that we were spared that. There’s also been damaging stuff about Rishi Sunak, the pandemic chancellor, and his plague-spreading subsidised meals scheme in the summer of 2020. It’s been useful to have confirmation that the chief medical officer privately renamed it “Eat out to help out the virus”. Dame Angela McLean, who has since become the government’s chief scientific adviser, sent a message describing Mr Sunak as “Dr Death”.

We’ve heard nothing of the cabinet as a collective decision-making body and a restraint on a dangerously dysfunctional prime minister. That’s because it wasn’t. Number 10’s disdain for the cabinet was expressed by Mr Cummings with characteristically pathological profanity when he scorned ministers as “morons”, “cunts” and “useless fuckpigs” in WhatsApp messages. Powerful as he was for a period, Mr Cummings was an unelected adviser. The cabinet were elected ministers of the crown. Yet the “morons” even humiliated themselves by obeying orders to defend his “eye-test” excursion to Barnard Castle. Were they spineless, clueless or simply useless? Whichever, they failed to perform their constitutional function.

Since the rise of the populists, some analysts have sought to console us with the thought that charlatans like Mr Johnson are ultimately found out and brought down by their depravity and incompetence. His defenestration in the summer of 2022 has been offered as proof that our system still kind of works. That is a false comfort and his shocking misrule during the pandemic underlines why. Even if you are eventually rid of a rogue prime minister, he can do a vast amount of harm before he meets his end. Best not to put one in Number 10 in the first place.

• Andrew Rawnsley is the Chief Political Commentator of the Observer

Opinion

During Covid, callous Tories knew this about old people: they’re very expensive


Polly Toynbee
Fri, 3 November 2023

Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian

Let “the bodies pile high in their thousands”, Boris Johnson supposedly said. Not once but often, the Covid inquiry has heard that he was for killing off elderly people, “obsessed with older people accepting their fate”. According to the invaluable diary of the chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, our prime minister was saying “that’s nature’s way of dealing with old people” as he complained “we are destroying the economy for people who will die anyway soon”.

It wasn’t just him. The chief whip, Mark Spencer, allegedly said: “I think we should let the old people get it and protect the others”, to which Johnson replied: “A lot of my backbenchers agree with that, and I must say I agree with them.” So this was not one irritable remark, but a theme aired many times around tables where people didn’t get up and leave the room: many are still in government, presumably including Rishi Sunak, the eat-out-to-help-spread-Covid chancellor at the time.

Members of Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice say the evidence they are hearing is even worse than they feared. Age UK’s charity director, Caroline Abrahams, watching the inquiry equally aghast, tells me: “The pandemic inquiry is laying bare just how ageist many senior decision-makers are.”

Politically, the plan for a slaughter of the ancients was insane, since older people are the ones who vote Tory overwhelmingly, voted Brexit and voted in Johnson. The Tory problem is that they are dying out too fast, not too slowly, while young people no longer turn Tory as they age, the way their parents did. In every sense this is the dying party.

But for the sake of argument, let’s take a leaf out of Jonathan Swift’s satirical “modest proposal” for butchering children starving in the Irish famine to serve to English landlords.

Old people are very expensive and growing as a proportion of the population, as births of new children to pay for them fall. The government has done nothing to prepare for this long-foreseen demographic change, and now complains of the soaring cost of pensions, NHS and social care.

The state pension costs it more than £100bn a year, a cost that has risen threefold since 2000. An 85-year-old’s health costs 5.6 times more than a 30-year-old’s: there are 1.7 million over-85s, and this number is rising. Across the UK, 10% of health spending goes to those over the age of 85, with 32% to those aged 65 to 84.

Ahead, needs will rise as the government has reneged on its promised social care reform, now denied to many very frail people. The Health Foundation says adult social care in England will cost an extra £8.3bn over the next decade, and that’s just to maintain its current decayed state. It would cost an additional £18.4bn to cover its full cost and to improve access to care.

So if the Tories want a smaller state, eliminating everyone of pension age could pay for luxurious tax cuts. Indeed Covid must have saved a fair bit, as Sir John Edmunds, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told Andrew Marr on LBC this week: “If we’d have moved the lockdown forward by a week, we would have saved thousands of deaths.” Another saver: the poorest who cost the state more died at a far greater rate than those who were well off.

Johnson’s delinquent Covid policy still has prominent supporters. Jacob Rees-Mogg said on GB News: “Boris Johnson’s instincts on lockdown and Covid policy were broadly right.” The inquiry heard that the cabinet secretary, Mark Sedwill, suggested a herd immunity policy of deliberately spreading Covid, like chickenpox parties for children: that seems to have happened in care homes.

The idea that most of those who died were already at death’s door, or suffering terminal “pre-existing conditions”, was wrong. The average number of years of life lost by each Covid victim was 10.2. Those aged over 75 lost an average 6.5 years.

Related: ‘Dad stood at Mum’s window every night for a year’: care home visitors – a photo essay

That is an important calculation, because healthcare is rationed by counting in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs): how many years of good-quality life a treatment will deliver. That’s how the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (Nice) decides which new drugs give real value for money. A great many QALYs were needlessly lost through bad political decisions on Covid.

Although older people are now the group least likely to be poor, there are still many pensioners living very low-quality lives, without care, their day centres closed. About 850,000 pensioner households fail to claim the pension credit they are entitled to, in order to top up poverty incomes: presumably that suits the government, since it knows where every pensioner lives, and so could rectify this if it chose.

But inequality among older people is extreme. They are also the richest cohort. In 2018/19 79% of them in England were homeowners. One in five over-65s live in households with assets worth more than £1m. Meanwhile, the half of the population who are under 40 own only 3.9% of all wealth, says the International Longevity Centre UK. The Treasury did well out of Covid deaths, raising a record-breaking inheritance tax take.

The politics of social care and who should pay for it prove toxic: they did for Theresa May’s 2017 election campaign, and added to Labour’s troubles in 2010 when its social care plan was dubbed a “death tax”. The money is right there for the taking, in wealthy pensioners’ assets, for any government brave enough to redistribute some of that wealth. I doubt many older Tory voters will forget the terminal plans being hatched for them inside No 10, not just by Johnson but also by all those around him, who discussed them willingly. But it was far from the only Tory policy driving a wedge between generations.

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

UK
Gary Lineker backs pro-Palestinian protesters over Armistice Day march

Martin Evans
Fri, 3 November 2023 

Gary Lineker - Danny Lawson/PA

Gary Lineker sparked a fresh political row on Friday as he backed pro-Palestinian protesters planning to march through London on Armistice Day.

The Match of the Day presenter posted his support online after Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, said the march risked causing offence to millions of “decent British people”.

Tens of thousands are expected to gather in central London on Saturday Nov 11 to take part in the now weekly pro-Palestinian rally.

On Friday, Rishi Sunak said the planned protest was “provocative and disrespectful” and would be an “affront to the British public and the values we stand for”.

Mrs Braverman said: “It is entirely unacceptable to desecrate Armistice Day with a hate march through London. If it goes ahead, there is an obvious risk of serious public disorder, violence and damage, as well as giving offence to millions of decent British people.”

But responding to her comments, Lineker wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter: “Marching and calling for a ceasefire and peace so that more innocent children don’t get killed is not really the definition of a hate march.”

‘This takes the biscuit’

Earlier this year Lineker, the BBC’s highest-paid presenter, was forced to step back from his Match of the Day role after comparing Mrs Braverman’s comments on illegal migration to the language of 1930s Germany.

A huge row ensued, with a number of his BBC colleagues refusing to appear on air in support. He was later reinstated, and the corporation drew up new impartiality rules that said presenters were free to express opinions that are the subject of public and political debate.

But Lineker’s latest intervention has sparked anger in some quarters. Andrew Percy, the chairman of the all-party parliamentary group on anti-Semitism, said: “Gary Lineker isn’t known for his insight into Middle East politics, but this takes the biscuit in terms of ignorance.

“These marches have seen appalling examples of anti-Semitic placards, calls for jihad, the glorification of terrorism and the murder of 1,400 innocent Israelis. They have made British Jews feel more unsafe in this country than they have for generations.”

Sir Simon Schama, the historian, wrote on social media: “Why would you have a ceasefire with terrorists whose leaders have explicitly said they want to do October 7 again and again until Israel is annihilated?”

The row came as Israel rejected US calls for a temporary ceasefire in its Gaza offensive. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, said there would be no humanitarian window until Hamas freed the hostages it continues to hold captive in Gaza.

Meanwhile, two people were arrested at King’s Cross Station on Friday night after Mark Harper, the Transport Secretary, banned a sit-in protest for Gaza because of the risk to train services. He said he had agreed to a request from British Transport Police to prohibit the protest.
COMMODITY FETISHISM
Bleu Royal diamond set to dazzle in Geneva jewels sale


Robin MILLARD
Sat, 4 November 2023 

The Bleu Royal diamond weighs 17.61 carats (PIERRE ALBOUY)

The exceptionally rare Bleu Royal gem is set to become one of the most expensive diamonds ever sold by auctioneers Christie's when it goes under the hammer on Tuesday.

The Bleu Royal is the star lot in a series of sales in Geneva this month which feature items from movie history including pearls worn by Audrey Hepburn and Marlon Brando's self-engraved watch.

Weighing 17.61 carats, the Bleu Royal is the largest internally flawless fancy vivid blue gem ever to appear for sale in auction history.

The stone is expected to fetch $35 million to $50 million in Christie's Magnificent Jewels auction.

"It's going to be one of the top 10 jewels sold at Christie's ever, in terms of value," Rahul Kadakia, Christie's international head of jewellery, told AFP.

The diamond, set in a ring, has been in a private collection for 50 years.


Kadakia said lots of modern coloured diamonds had a modified cut to enhance the colour.

In the Bleu Royal's case, "the rough material itself was so rich that they were able to cut it into a classic brilliant faceting style," he said.

"It checks all the boxes -- really top of its class."

Fancy vivid blue diamonds weighing more than 10 carats are exceptionally rare. Since Christie's was founded in 1766, only three such stones have appeared for sale -- all in the last 13 years.

The Bulgari Blue sold for nearly $15.8 million in 2010; the Winston Blue fetched $23.8 million in 2014, and the Oppenheimer Blue realised $57.5 million in 2016.

"This level of the jewellery market has turned into the same sort of appreciation as art," said Kadakia.

"The market saw there's a great scarcity of these special stones and they started making prices in the same manner as great pictures do."

- Movie memorabilia -

The separate online jewels sale, which runs until November 16, features the pearl necklace worn by Hepburn in the 1953 film "Roman Holiday".

Hepburn, who played a princess in the romantic comedy, picked it out from a selection offered by the Austro-Hungarian jeweller Furst, and returned it afterwards with a signed photograph.

It is being sold by a European collector and has a starting price of 18,000 Swiss francs ($20,000), but could go much higher in a bidding war.

"You only need two people to make a party," said Max Fawcett, the head of jewellery at Christie's in Geneva.

"Audrey Hepburn is an iconic figure. Her fashion, clothes and anything that she ever wore is still highly sought after by collectors," he told AFP.

"People love a story and private clients want to be part of those stories."

- 'Apocalypse Now' watch -

In Monday's Passion for Time watches sale, the timepiece worn by Brando in the 1979 Vietnam War movie "Apocalypse Now" is estimated to fetch one to two million Swiss francs.

The circa 1972 Rolex GMT-Master is hand-engraved "M. Brando" on the back by the Oscar-winning US actor himself.

"The engraving is still sharp, so we can imagine that this watch has been worn, but not too much," said Eli Fayon, junior watches specialist at Christie's Geneva.

Told that the eye-catching watch would distract moviegoers, Brando removed the bezel -- the outer ring which encircles the crystal glass to keep it in place.

Besides the engraving, "that is also what makes this watch unique", Fayon told AFP.

Brando gifted it to his adopted daughter Petra in 1995, who then gave it to her husband in 2003 on their wedding night. It was sold at auction in 2019 for $1.95 million.

Its white hands and hour markers have aged to parchment yellow.

"Putting aside that it's Marlon Brando's watch, the watch in itself is amazing. The condition is spectacular for a 50-year-old watch," said Fayon.

He was expecting interest from vintage Rolex collectors and clients that want "not only a piece of watch history but also movie history".

rjm/imm/mca
UK

ZIONIST RED TORY
SIR Keir Starmer's key comments about Gaza in the past three weeks


James Cheng-Morris
·Freelance news writer, Yahoo UK
Updated Fri, 3 November 2023 

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer defends his approach to the Israel-Hamas conflict in a speech on Tuesday. (AFP via Getty Images) (DANIEL LEAL via Getty Images)

Keir Starmer remains under pressure over his stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict after two Labour council leaders called for him to resign.

Asjad Mahmood, of Pendle Borough Council, and Afrasiab Anwar, of Burnley Council, said Starmer should go amid unhappiness among numerous MPs and party members over his refusal to back a ceasefire as the crisis continues to escalate.

Sixteen of Starmer's frontbenchers have now defied him by either calling for a ceasefire themselves or sharing others’ calls on social media.

The row has dogged Starmer since a controversial interview with LBC three weeks ago (see further down this page). On Friday, the Labour leader faced repeated questions from reporters about his position on the conflict during an event which was intended to highlight the party’s plans on business, building and jobs.

It has also seen his personal poll ratings drop.

As he continues to face pressure, Yahoo News UK sets out what Starmer has said about the conflict over the past three weeks.

This is when the row started.

In an interview with LBC four days after the onset of the conflict, Starmer said: “I’m very clear Israel must - does - have that right to defend herself and Hamas bears responsibility.”

He was then asked if a siege and cutting off power and water in Gaza was appropriate - and Starmer said: “I think that Israel does have that right.

“It is an ongoing situation. Obviously everything should be done within international law, but I don’t want to step away from the core principles that Israel has a right to defend herself and Hamas bears responsibility for the terrorist acts.”

A backlash followed. Over the next week, a number of Labour councillors resigned from the party.

One, Amna Abdullatif of Manchester City Council, said she was quitting in the wake of Starmer’s “horrifying comments about Israel having the right to withhold fuel, water, food and electricity from the 2.2 million Palestinians trapped in Gaza, effectively endorsing a war crime”.


Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer has faced weeks of pressure over his stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict. 
 (Owen Humphreys - PA Images via Getty Images)

20 October

In the wake of two by-election victories in which Labour took Conservative seats, Starmer publicly addressed the row for the first time as he denied ever backing Israel withholding humanitarian aid from Gaza.

He argued he had intended to say Israel has the right to defend itself and retrieve 200 hostages “within international law”.

“I was saying that Israel has the right to self-defence, and when I said that right I meant it was that right to self-defence. I was not saying that Israel had the right to cut off water, food, fuel or medicines.”

Later that day, pro-Palestinian demonstrators protested outside the party’s London headquarters, with chants including “Labour Party blood on your hands”.

31 October

By this time, Starmer was under growing pressure to call for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas after leading Labour figures - including London mayor Sadiq Khan, Scottish party leader Anas Sarwar and a number of frontbenchers from his own shadow cabinet - broke ranks to challenge his stance.

In an attempt to quell the row, he delivered a speech at Chatham House, a foreign affairs think tank in London, defending his approach.

He again resisted ceasefire calls, saying: "While I understand calls for a ceasefire at this stage, I do not believe that it is the correct position now for two reasons. One, because a ceasefire always freezes any conflict in the state where it currently lies.

“And, as we speak, that would leave Hamas with the infrastructure and the capabilities to carry out the sort of attack we saw on 7 October. Attacks that are still ongoing. Hostages who should be released [are] still held. Hamas would be emboldened and start preparing for future violence immediately.”

He said a humanitarian pause is the “only credible approach” which could see “the urgent alleviation of Palestinian suffering”.

Meanwhile, police were forced to intervene after pro-Palestinian protesters mobbed Starmer’s car on his way out of the building.

3 November


Starmer once again rejected calls for a ceasefire.

He said: “To say to a sovereign country [Israel] when 200 of its civilians are being held hostage that they must give up their right to self-defence, is not for me the correct position."



‘Deal breaker’: Muslims in Leicester mull vote over Labour stance on Gaza

Andrew Anthony
Sun, 5 November 2023 

Photograph: Gary Calton/The Observer

There was a mood of sombre reflection outside Leicester’s central mosque after Friday prayers. The war in Gaza was at the forefront of many worshippers’ minds and many made it clear that it would have an impact on what political party they supported in the UK.

“I’ve always been a Labour voter,” said Shebaz Hassan, “but I’ve been emailing my local MP to see if he’s going to support the ceasefire and a peace solution afterwards. And if he doesn’t, then I’m going to have to see what I’m going to vote – and that goes for a lot of people.”

I've been emailing my MP to see if he is going to support the ceasefire and a peace solution afterwards
Shebaz Hassan

His brother, Imtiaz Hassan, said that Keir Starmer’s support of Israel’s right to invade Gaza, following Hamas’s brutal slaughter of some 1,400 Israelis and kidnapping of more than 200 on 7 October, was a “deal breaker”.

Roughly a third of Leicester’s 369,000 population is Muslim, and it’s a community that has traditionally voted for Labour. All three of its constituencies returned Labour MPs in the last election, although Claudia Webbe of Leicester East could stand as an independent after losing the Labour whip.

It’s a city that Labour would expect to romp home in come the next election. But according to Raffiq Mohammed, a Labour councillor for the Stoneygate ward, the party is now “haemorrhaging votes that we’re not going to get back” as a result of Starmer’s stance.

Mohammed was one of seven local Muslim councillors who wrote an open letter demanding that the Labour leader withdraw and apologise for the comments he made in an interview on LBC in which he said that Israel has the “right to do everything it can to get those hostages back”, including withholding power and water from Palestinian civilians.

Starmer later clarified his remarks and has since called for a humanitarian pause in hostilities to enable the distribution of civilian aid, but neither Mohammed nor his fellow signatories believe that he’s gone far enough to satisfy them or their constituents.


Mohamed Sebaj, left, with a friend, has always voted for Labour before but now says he doesn’t know who to support. 
Photograph: Gary Calton/The Observer

“I remember campaigning during the Iraq war, and the community has doubled in size since then,” he said. “It’s also more political and it doesn’t rely on the BBC or newspapers for its information.”

Even if Labour believes it is protected by the handsome majorities that it enjoys in the two Leicester constituencies with the highest numbers of Muslim voters, Mohammed says there are many other towns, such as Loughborough, where the Muslim vote could be decisive. But where would these voters go?

Last week the leaders of two Labour councils, Burnley and Pendle, called for Starmer to resign. A couple of weeks ago nine councillors in Oxford quit the party over Starmer’s refusal to call for a ceasefire and are now independents. Are there similar plans afoot in Leicester?

“It depends how the situation develops,” says Mustafa Malik, another Labour councillor in Leicester.

Now that Sadiq Khan and Andy Burnham, the Labour mayors of London and Manchester, have both called for a ceasefire, and with growing unrest among a number of MPs, Starmer is facing a delicate political calculation.

In reality his influence on the situation on the ground in Israel and Palestine is severely limited. “He might not have that power,” says Shebaz Hassan, “but if he says something, then at least we know he’s saying what we think he should be saying.”

On the streets of Leicester it’s hard to get an accurate picture of exactly how critical the issue is to Muslim Labour voters. The majority of those asked say they’re not interested or don’t want to speak.

In the Highfields area, where a number of Palestinian flags hang from windows, one man, who didn’t want to give his name, said people in the community are worried about expressing their opinions publicly.

“Because it’s such a polarised debate, not many people want to speak up about it, given the fact that they have jobs,” he said. “It could affect their livelihood.”

Mohammed Sebaj says that while he’s always previously voted Labour, the leadership’s response to Gaza means he’s unsure what he’ll do in the next election. “Honestly I don’t have any idea who to vote for.”

Most observers believe an election won’t take place for six months at the earliest. By then all the doubt and frustration that is circulating in towns such as Leicester may have run their course – alternatively they may harden into something more concrete. Starmer will be hoping for a speedy resolution in the tiny strip of land on the Mediterranean 2,000 miles away, or else the disciplined party unity he’s carefully built might begin to crumble.

Labour will work for a Palestinian state

David Lammy
SHADOW FOREIGN SECRETARY
Sat, 4 November 2023 

Photograph: Bashar Taleb/AFP/Getty Images

Fifty years ago, at the height of the Yom Kippur war, there was a deep fear that the wars between Israel and Egypt might never end. With devastating losses in the Sinai and whole armies facing encirclement by the Suez Canal, few expected the narrow diplomatic openings to lead to a lasting peace between the foes. Today we face a situation just as perilous. Hamas’s appalling terrorism against Israel on 7 October led to the darkest day in Jewish history since the Holocaust, while the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza is playing out on an unimaginable scale, with thousands of civilians dead, streets flattened and more than a million people displaced.

We must not look away. Instead, once again diplomacy must work urgently to find those narrowing openings. This week, at meetings with foreign ministers in Amman, Doha and Cairo, it became clear to me that an immediate humanitarian pause in the fighting is the most realistic way to immediately alleviate the suffering of civilians in Gaza, and secure the release of the hostages. That is why our position is shared with our major allies, the US and the EU.

I understand why so many are calling for a ceasefire now. We all want the bloodshed and suffering to end. But a ceasefire now would just embolden Hamas. They would still hold hundreds of innocent hostages. They would still fire rockets into Israel. And they would still have the capacity and determination to repeat the horrors of 7 October “again and again”, as a Hamas official boasted last week.

The truth is that Hamas is not seeking negotiations but looking to use Palestinian civilians as human shields and widen the conflict to second and third fronts. A ceasefire will hold only when 7 October can never be repeated.

But even wars have rules. The way Israel fights this war matters. It must uphold international law. The Palestinian people are not Hamas and the children of Gaza must be protected. It is unacceptable that the siege conditions on the strip have not been lifted. The number of dead Palestinian civilians (including children) is shocking and, as Antony Blinken said, Israel must take “concrete steps” to protect innocent lives. And we must redouble our calls to end illegal settlement activity, intimidation and violence on the West Bank

We reject the alternative to a peaceful settlement that is playing out on our TV screens and will pursue two states: a sovereign Palestine and a secure Israel

The Palestinian tragedy extends beyond Gaza. Visiting Ramallah in July last year, I came face to face with a generation in despair. I met young, peaceful Palestinians, totally opposed to Hamas terrorists, who were as impressive as they were eloquent. But their lives told a bitter story of diplomatic failure. Children during the now-forgotten hopes of the Oslo process, their adolescence scarred by the second intifada, they were now facing adulthood under a seemingly permanent occupation, with vanishing economic prospects and ever-encroaching settlements.

Afterwards, I met Mohammed Shtayyeh, the prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, who said the international community, including the UK, seemed to have abandoned serious efforts towards a lasting settlement. I thought of those young lives, and of the fear of a young person I had met earlier in Israel, who had become accustomed to running to bomb shelters in fear of Hamas rocket attacks. With this in mind, I promised that if Labour wins power, we will strive to recognise Palestine as a sovereign state, as part of efforts to contribute to securing a negotiated two-state solution.

Britain, on this essential issue, has lost its way. It is intolerable that no government has put in sustained effort towards a two-state solution since New Labour. Recent Conservative governments have, at times, been dangerously irresponsible, leaving the two-state solution out of their recent UK-Israel road map and announcing plans to move the UK embassy to Jerusalem. The task will be hard and Britain’s influence in the region has limits, but Labour recognises Britain’s historical responsibility. We will appoint a new special envoy dedicated to Middle East peace and recharge diplomacy with all parties in the region to gain maximum influence.

This gets to the core of Labour foreign policy with me and Keir Starmer: our progressivism will be founded on realism. Progressive because our foreign policy will be founded on the belief that every human life is of equal value. This is why we reject the alternative to a peaceful settlement that is being played out on our TV screens and will pursue two states: a sovereign Palestine and a secure Israel. Realist because we will focus on making practical, tangible progress with the world as it is, not as we wish it to be.

This means working with not only the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli government, but our partners in the Gulf, Jordan and Egypt. Tentative conversations have already begun over post-war Gaza and reviving the Palestinian Authority. These narrow openings must be turned into a pathway for a two-state solution.

No one should doubt the difficulty of the diplomatic task ahead, but a committed international community has moved the dial even on this conflict in the recent past. Even at the height of the second intifada, the Bush administration brought Ariel Sharon to the table with Mahmoud Abbas, with Britain contributing meaningfully to the overall effort.

It must not be forgotten, as a result of this concerted push, how close Ehud Olmert and Abbas got in making final status proposals at the Annapolis conference. As war raged in 1973, few would have dared to hope that Egyptian president Anwar Sadat would visit Jerusalem only four years later. It was not an inevitable arc of history that brought this about. It was at first quiet, then intense, diplomacy. This is a habit that needs urgent revival.