Japan orders Google to cease alleged antitrust violation

By AFP
April 15, 2025


The move mirrors similar crackdowns on Google in the United States and Europe. - Copyright AFP Sergei GAPON

Japanese authorities said Tuesday they had issued a cease-and-desist order to US tech titan Google over an alleged violation of national antitrust laws.

It is the first time the country has issued such an order to a global technology giant, Japanese media reported, and follows similar moves in Europe and the United States.

“We have concluded that Google LLC’s conduct threatens to impede fair competition,” Saiko Nakajima of the Japan Fair Trade Commission (JFTC) told reporters on Tuesday.

The problem is “related to the implementation of search functions for Android smartphones, in violation of the antitrust law”, she said.

The JFTC accuses Google of imposing binding conditions on Android smartphone manufacturers in Japan since at least July 2020.

Specifically, it says Google made sure its online app store Google Play would be installed as part of a package with its web-browser search app Chrome.

Google Play is so widely used that without it, “Android devices are basically unsellable”, a government source told AFP in December.

No financial penalties were announced Tuesday, but Nakajima said the order would increase the options available to smartphone makers.

“This will encourage competition and benefit” society, she said.

Google Japan said it was “disappointed” by the JFTC’s findings.

“(Our) agreements with Japanese partners help to promote competition and have undeniably boosted their ability to invest in product innovations which deliver more choice for consumers,” it said in a statement.

“We will review the order thoroughly to determine our next steps.”

The US government asked a judge in November to order the dismantling of Google by selling its widely used Chrome browser, in a major antitrust crackdown on the company.

And the European Commission said in 2023 that Google should sell parts of its business and could face a fine of up to 10 percent of its global revenue if it fails to comply.

In Japan, the JFTC conducted an on-site inspection of Amazon’s Japanese subsidiary in Tokyo last year, accusing it of abusing its industry dominance to drive down prices.

Amazon Japan used its coveted “buy box” — a prominent spot on its website — against sellers, pressuring them into lowering prices to give it a competitive edge over rival e-commerce sites, the JFTC said.

Europe seeks to break its US tech addiction


By AFP
April 15, 2025


EU rules say tech titans must provide a choice for users to pick a browser - Copyright AFP/File Sergei GAPON
Raziye Akkoc

With President Donald Trump more unpredictable than ever and transatlantic ties reaching new lows, calls are growing louder for Europe to declare independence from US tech.

From Microsoft to Meta, Apple to Uber, cloud computing to AI, much of the day-to-day technology used by Europeans is American.

The risks that brings were hotly debated before Trump returned to power, but now Europe is getting serious — pushing to favour European firms in public contracts and backing European versions of well-known US services.

As Europe faces Trump’s tariffs, and threatens to tax US tech unless the two sides clinch a deal averting all-out trade war, there is a growing sense of urgency.

Tech sovereignty has been front and centre for weeks: the European Union unveiled its strategy to compete in the global artificial intelligence race and is talking about its own payment system to rival Mastercard.

“We have to build up our own capacities when it comes to technologies,” EU tech chief Henna Virkkunen has said, identifying three critical sectors: AI, quantum and semiconductors.

A key concern is that if ties worsen, Washington could potentially weaponise US digital dominance against Europe — with Trump’s administration already taking aim at the bloc’s tech rules.

That is giving fresh impetus to demands by industry, experts and EU lawmakers for Europe to bolster its infrastructure and cut reliance on a small group of US firms.

“Relying exclusively on non-European technologies exposes us to strategic and economic risks,” said EU lawmaker Stephanie Yon-Courtin, who focuses on digital issues, pointing to US limits on semiconductor exports as one example.



– ‘Buy European’ push –



The data paints a stark picture.

Around two-thirds of Europe’s cloud market is in the hands of US titans: Amazon, Microsoft and Google, while European cloud providers make up only two percent.

Twenty-three percent of the bloc’s total high-tech imports in 2023 came from the United States, second only to China — in everything from aerospace and pharmaceutical tech to smartphones and chips.

Although the idea of a European social media platform to rival Facebook or X is given short shrift, officials believe that in the crucial AI field, the race is far from over.

To boost European AI firms, the EU has called for a “European preference for critical sectors and technologies” in public procurement.

“Incentives to buy European are important,” Benjamin Revcolevschi, chief executive of French cloud provider OVHcloud, told AFP, welcoming the broader made-in-Europe push.

Alison James, European government relations lead at electronics industry association IPC, summed it up: “We need to have what we need for our key industries and our critical industries to be able to make our stuff.”

There are calls for greater independence from US financial technology as well, with European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde advocating a “European offer” to rival American (Mastercard, Visa and Paypal) and Chinese payment systems (Alipay).

Heeding the call, EU capitals have discussed creating a “truly European payment system”.

Industry insiders are also aware building tech sovereignty requires massive investment, at a moment when the EU is pouring money into defence.

In an initiative called EuroStack, digital policy experts said creating a European tech ecosystem with layers including AI would cost 300 billion euros ($340 billion) by 2035.

US trade group Chamber of Progress puts it much higher, at over five trillion euros.



– Different values –



US Vice President JD Vance has taken aim at tech regulation in denouncing Europe’s social and economic model — accusing it of stifling innovation and unfairly hampering US firms, many of whom have aligned with Trump’s administration.

But for many, the bloc’s values-based rules are another reason to fight for tech independence.

After repeated abuses by US Big Tech, the EU created major laws regulating the online world including the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and the Digital Services Act (DSA).

Much to the chagrin of US digital giants, the EU in 2018 introduced strict rules to protect European users’ data, and last year ushered in the world’s broadest safeguards on AI.

In practice, supporters say the DMA encourages users to discover European platforms — for instance giving users a choice of browser, rather than the default from Apple or Google.

Bruce Lawson of Norwegian web browser Vivaldi said there was “a significant and gratifying increase in downloads in Europe”, thanks in large part to the DMA.

Lawson insists it’s not about being anti-American.

“It’s about weaning ourselves off the dependency on infrastructure that have very different values about data protection,” Lawson said.

Pointing at rules in Europe that “don’t necessarily exist in the United States”, he said users simply “prefer to have their data processed by a European company”.

Nanoplastics in soil: How soil type and pH influence mobility


By Dr. Tim Sandle
April 15, 2025

DIGITAL JOURNAL


Local farmers say decades of incompetent water management has led to a situation in which they can't use rainwater from reservoirs - Copyright AFP/File Chris DELMAS

To help to combat plastic pollution, scientists have conducted batch adsorption testing in different soil types to understand the adsorption and aggregation behavior of nanoplastics in soil.

Nanoplastics are an increasing threat to the ecosystem; however, their mobility in the soil is still underexplored. Researchers from Waseda University and the Japanese National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology investigated the adsorption and aggregation behaviour of nanoplastics in different types of soil under different pH conditions.

The researchers found that while nanoplastics do not self-aggregate, they adsorb onto soil particles and this interaction varies with soil composition and acidity. The findings suggest new directions for environmental risk assessments and pollution control.

The study provides new perspectives on the migration and environmental interactions of nanoplastics, while broadening our knowledge of pollution dynamics and soil contamination processes.

Plastics are everywhere—from packaging and textiles to electronics and medical devices. As plastic waste breaks down, it releases microscopic particles that can penetrate our ecosystems, hinder plant growth, and potentially transfer harmful pollutants to organisms, including humans. Therefore, these plastic particles are a potential threat to the ecosystem, especially in their nanoparticulate form (1–100 nm diameter), which can penetrate the environment through different routes, including the soil beneath our feet.

Researchers from Japan have set out to study the migration behavior of nanoplastics in different soil types. The scientists focused on the adsorption of the nanoplastics on soil and the aggregation characteristics of both the nanoplastics and soil particles under varying pH conditions. The aggregation properties of nanoplastics and their adsorption onto soil particle surfaces are known to affect their migration in soil.

The research team focused on three major aspects. First, the homo or self-aggregation of the nanoplastics. Second, the adsorption properties of the nanoplastics onto soil, and third, how the adsorption of nanoplastics affects the aggregation of soil particles.

To understand the behavior of the nanoplastics under different soil conditions, the researchers used two different types of soil: andosol (volcanic soil) and fine sand. “Both andosol and fine sand have extremely different properties, and we utilized these two to get a broader idea of how the behavior of nanoplastics changes with respect to soil composition and surface characteristics”.

For the self-aggregation studies of nanoplastics, the team first prepared a suspension of polystyrene nanoparticles under three different pH conditions. Further, they determined its particle size, aggregate particle size, and zeta potential—a measure of the electrical charge on particle surfaces, which helps determine the stability of nanoparticles.

Additionally, the researchers tested the adsorption properties of the polystyrene nanoparticles onto the two soil types under varying pH conditions. To analyze the adsorption behavior, the researchers used batch adsorption testing.

The analysis of aggregation and adsorption involved advanced instrumental techniques, including laser diffraction, UV spectroscopy, and zeta potential analysis. According to the results, no aggregation was observed in the polystyrene nanoparticles owing to the high negative charge on the polystyrene nanoparticles. This is because the highly negative zeta potential of the polystyrene nanoparticles causes repulsion between the particles and remains unaffected by pH changes.

This was in contrast to that observed for the adsorption properties of the nanoplastics onto soil. Polystyrene nanoparticles adsorbed onto soil, which was influenced by pH, and further, aggregation of the soil particles.

The results, therefore, suggest that the soil type and pH of the solution can critically alter the movement of nanoplastics in the soil. Understanding these important aspects could help to reform policies and strategies for mitigating plastic pollution.

The study appears in the journal Science of the Total Environment, titled “Effect of solution pH on nanoplastic adsorption onto soil particle surface and the aggregation of soil particles.”
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Palestinian student detained at US citizenship interview

PRO PALESTINE DETENTION COMING TO CANADA IF CONSERVATIVES WIN ELECTION

By AFP
April 14, 2025


Mahmoud Khalil -- a prominent face of the protest movement that erupted in response to Israel's war in Gaza -- was arrested and taken to Louisiana - Copyright AFP/File Amid FARAHI

US immigration authorities on Monday arrested another Columbia University student who participated in pro-Palestinian campus protests, detaining him as he attended an interview to become an American citizen.

Mohsen Mahdawi’s lawyers, in a court filing seeking his release and halt to any imminent deportation, also claimed President Donald Trump’s mounting crackdown on immigrant student protesters violates the US Constitution — the latest judicial challenge to the Republican adminstration.

A Palestinian born in the occupied West Bank, Mahdawi has been a legal US permanent resident since 2015, was set to graduate next month and planned to attend a Columbia master’s program this fall, the court filing said.

He is the co-founder of a Palestinian student group at Columbia alongside Mahmoud Khalil, a face of the movement who Trump has also been trying to expel since his March arrest.

“Mohsen Mahdawi of White River Junction, Vermont, walked into an immigration office for what was supposed to be the final step in his citizenship process. Instead, he was arrested and removed in handcuffs by plain-clothed, armed, individuals with their faces covered,” Senator Bernie Sanders said in a statement signed by other Vermont lawmakers.

A video apparently made by Mahdawi’s friends circulating online showed masked agents loading an individual into a black SUV.

District Judge William Sessions issued a temporary restraining order barring authorities from deporting Mahdawi or moving him out of Vermont “pending further order” from the court, a court filing showed.

The arrest of Khalil and other students associated with campus activism has triggered outrage from Trump opponents, free speech advocates and some on the political right, who say the case will have a chilling effect on freedom of expression.

Immigration officers have similarly detained and sought to deport a Tufts University student from Turkey, Rumeysa Ozturk, and Columbia student Yunseo Chung who is a US permanent resident originally from South Korea.

Their deportations have also been blocked for now by courts.

“Mahdawi was active on Columbia’s campus in organizing for Gaza and Palestine during the course of Israel’s genocide in Gaza,” the Palestinian Youth Movement said on Instagram.

“His targeting represents a continuation of the Trump administration’s campaign that began with the arrest of Mahmoud Khalil last month, and an escalation in tactics by ICE and DHS to abduct and detain students and other noncitizens who have been vocal in their opposition to Israel’s genocide in Gaza.

“We demand the immediate and unconditional release of Mohsen Mahdawi.”

Trump resurrects ghost of US military bases in Panama


ByAFP
April 15, 2025


A cargo ship transits through Panama Canal locks - Copyright AFP/File MARTIN BERNETTI
Juan Jose Rodriguez

US President Donald Trump’s bid to take back control of the Panama Canal has put his counterpart Jose Raul Mulino in a difficult position and revived fears in the Central American country that US military bases will return.

After Trump vowed to reclaim the interoceanic waterway from Chinese influence, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signed an agreement with the Mulino administration last week for the United States to deploy troops in areas adjacent to the canal.

For more than two decades, after handing over control of the strategically vital waterway to Panama in 1999 and dismantling the bases that protected it, Washington has regularly conducted maneuvers in the country.

So what is changing and why is the new agreement causing controversy?

– Will US military bases return? –

Although the agreement does not allow the United States to build its own permanent bases, Washington will be able to maintain a long-term rotational force in Panama, similar to the one it has in Australia and other countries, for training, exercises and “other activities.”

The United States will be able to deploy an unspecified number of personnel to three bases that Washington built when it previously had an enclave in the canal zone.

That is a “flagrant violation” of the constitution, which prohibits foreign bases, and the 1977 handover treaties that establish the “neutrality” of the canal and permit only Panama to have military forces on national territory, Euclides Tapia, a Panamanian professor of international relations, told AFP.

But there is a loophole: one of the treaties “allows the US to defend the canal when it feels the neutrality is jeopardized,” said Will Freeman, an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, a US-based think tank.

Benjamin Gedan, former director for South America on the US National Security Council, argues that Panama has cooperated with the United States in securing the canal.

Panamanian lawyer Arturo Hoyos sees no violation of laws or treaties, as the new agreement allows “joint” operations.

– Is Mulino in trouble? –

Mulino’s government says that the facilities and land belong to Panama and will be for “joint use” by US and Panamanian security forces.

He maintains that he has not ceded an inch of sovereignty to Trump, a natural right-wing ally.

The agreement is a “trade-off” because it “limits the Trump administration’s pressure tactics and hostility and maybe the scope of the concessions” by Panama, Freeman said.

“The risk that nobody’s pricing in, at least on the US side, is that they make Mulino a lame duck” by humiliating him, leaving the Panamanian leader “unable to govern,” he added.

Former presidential candidate Ricardo Lombana accused Mulino of “camouflaging” military bases and disguising “surrender” as “cooperation.”

“The United States is recolonizing and reoccupying us,” said Julio Yao, who advised the Panamanian government in the 1977 negotiations.

Gedan, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, believes Panamanians “are not willing” to allow the return of US bases due to the trauma of the past occupation of the canal zone and the 1989 US invasion to overthrow dictator Manuel Antonio Noriega.

– What does Trump really want? –

The United States considers a Hong Kong company’s operation of ports at both ends of the canal to be a threat to its national security.

“Trump wants to minimize the risk of Beijing blocking the canal to prevent the passage of military vessels in a potential conflict,” Gedan said.

Natasha Lindstaedt, an expert at Britain’s University of Essex, sees the US moves as “part of a larger conflict with China as the US is trying to curb China’s influence in Panama and the region more generally.”

Freeman said that the Trump administration “most likely is trying to show that if it wanted to, it could close the canal to Chinese commerce as a way of exerting pressure on China, either not to invade Taiwan or in the event of a conflict over Taiwan.”

“What we’re seeing in Panama is also about Trump’s doctrine of peace through strength,” he said.

But Tapia was skeptical that China really poses a threat, suggesting the threats were aimed at boosting Trump’s domestic support.

“Canada becoming part of the United States or saying that they will take over the canal and Greenland is just a gimmick aimed at the American public,” he said.

Nvidia to build supercomputer chips entirely in US for first time

MORE TRUMP TARIFF BULLSHITING

By AFP
April 14, 2025


Nvidia says it plans to produce about a half trillion dollars worth of artificial intelligence infrastructure in the United States by the end of the decade through partnerships with TSMC, Foxconn and others - Copyright POOL/AFP Julia Demaree Nikhinson

Nvidia on Monday announced plans to build top-end artificial intelligence supercomputer chips entirely in the United States for the first time.

Supercomputer plants are being built in Texas in partnerships with Foxconn and Wistron, with manufacturing expected to ramp up over the course of the next 12 to 15 months, according to the Silicon Valley-based company.

TSMC plants in Arizona have already started production of Nvidia’s most advanced graphics processing unit (GPU), called Blackwell, Nvidia added.

“The engines of the world’s AI infrastructure are being built in the United States for the first time,” Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang said in the blog post.

“Adding American manufacturing helps us better meet the incredible and growing demand for AI chips and supercomputers, strengthens our supply chain and boosts our resiliency.”

Nvidia plans to produce as much as half a trillion dollars worth of AI infrastructure in the United States by the end of this decade through partnerships with TSMC, Foxconn, Wistron, Amkor and SPIL.

“Onshoring these industries is good for the American worker, good for the American economy, and good for American national security,” the White House said in a statement.

The US government has clamped down on the export of sophisticated AI chips to China due to national security concerns, and keeping production close to home could allow for tighter control of designs and products.

Now, chips are poised to get caught up in a trade war between the US and China.

On Air Force One Sunday, Trump said tariffs on semiconductors — which power any major technology from e-vehicles and iPhones to missile systems — “will be in place in the not distant future.”

“We want to make our chips and semiconductors and other things in our country,” Trump reiterated.

The US president said he would announce tariffs rates for semiconductors “over the next week” and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said they would likely be in place “in a month or two.”

Nvidia expects $5.5 bn hit as US targets chips sent to China

By AFP
April 15, 2025


Companies on the AI frontlines point out that Nvidia’s primordial role makes it the de-facto kingmaker on where the technology is going. — © AFP

Nvidia on Tuesday notified regulators that it expects a $5.5 billion hit this quarter due to a new US licensing requirement on the primary chip it can legally sell in China.

US officials last week told Nvidia it must obtain licenses to export its H20 chips to China because of concerns they may be used in supercomputers there, the Silicon Valley company said in a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing.

Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, which overtook Microsoft and Apple as the world’s most valuable publicly traded company – Copyright AFP/File I-Hwa CHENG

Shares of Nvidia, which have already seen high volatility since Trump’s April 2 tariffs announcement, were down over six percent in after-market trades.

The new licensing rule applies to Nvidia GPUs (graphics processing units) with bandwidth similar to that of the H20.

The United States had already barred exports to China of Nvidia’s most sophisticated GPUs, tailored for powering top-end artificial intelligence models.

Nvidia was told the licensing requirement on H20 chips will last indefinitely, it said in the filing.

Nvidia’s current fiscal quarter ends on April 27.

“First quarter results are expected to include up to approximately $5.5 billion of charges associated with H20 products for inventory, purchase commitments, and related reserves,” Nvidia said in the filing.

Trump ally Marjorie Taylor Greene bought Tesla, Amazon, Blackstone before rally

By Bloomberg News
 April 15, 2025

U.S. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene sold U.S. Treasuries and bought stakes in Amazon.com Inc., Blackstone Inc. and Tesla Inc. the day before U.S. President Donald Trump put a 90-day pause on retaliatory tariffs and prompted a market rally.

Greene, the Georgia Republican who’s a close ally of Trump, revealed the transactions in a financial disclosure last week.

The trades were part of a shift in Greene’s investments executed over two days, April 8 and 9. On the morning of the 9th, Trump posted on social media that it was a “great time to buy.” About four hours later, he announced he was suspending tariffs, propelling the S&P 500 index to a 9.5% gain, its biggest rally since 2008.

Greene’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Congressional Democrats have urged investigations into whether people connected to Trump profited from the timing of the tariff announcements.

In a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts said she did not know which officials may have had advance knowledge, but called it “unconscionable” that insiders may have profited from the market volatility.

The disclosure reports only require members to list values of transactions in broad ranges, and do not contain specific times of execution or cost basis, so it’s unclear precisely how many of Greene’s trades happened before Trump broke the news of the tariff pause.

But at least US$11,011 to $165,000 in purchases came on April 8. As of 11:20 a.m. Tuesday in New York, shares of Blackstone, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Tesla traded higher than at any point on that day.

Over the two days, her stock purchases totaled $21,021 to $315,000. She sold $50,001 to $100,000 of US Treasuries on April 8.

Among the other names in Greene’s purchases were chipmakers Nvidia Corporation, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Qualcomm Inc., along with apparel companies Lululemon Athletica Inc. and Nike Inc.

Gregory Korte, Bloomberg News

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

 

US senators ask SEC for Trump insider trading probe


By AFP
April 11, 2025

US President Donald Trump's annoucement of a pause in tariffs triggered a historic stock market rebound - Copyright AFP Lindsey Parnaby

A group of US senators on Friday urged the government’s markets corruption watchdog to investigate whether President Donald Trump or White House insiders broke securities laws ahead of his dramatic reversal on global tariffs.

The six Democrats — led by Massachusetts progressive Elizabeth Warren — noted in a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that Trump posted on his website Truth Social early Wednesday that “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!”

A few hours later, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of additional tariffs against dozens of countries, triggering a historic stock market rebound and the best day for the S&P 500 since the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.

“We urge the SEC to investigate whether the tariff announcements… enriched administration insiders and friends at the expense of the American public,” senators said.

The letter urged the SEC to probe whether “any insiders, including the president’s family, had prior knowledge of the tariff pause that they abused to make stock trades ahead of the president’s announcement.”

Trump signed his Truth Social post with the letters “DJT” — both his initials and the stock market abbreviation for his media company, Trump Media & Technology Group.

The company’s shares closed up 21.67 percent on Wednesday.

The senators called on the SEC to investigate whether the president, his donors or other insiders had engaged in market manipulation, insider trading or other violations of securities laws.

SEC chairman Paul Atkins has history with Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, who has accused him of having conflicts of interest over his ties to the financial services industry.

He is not obliged to agree to the demand for an investigation.

The letter, whose signatories include Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, came amid concern over the growing number of avenues through which Trump and his family can monetize the power of the presidency, although no evidence of corruption had emerged.

Days before his inauguration, Trump released a “memecoin” — a digital cryptocurrency token with no inherent value — opening the door for secret donations from foreign buyers.

“Now anyone in world can essentially deposit money into bank account of President of USA with a couple clicks,” his former aide Anthony Scaramucci posted on social media after the launch.

“Every favor — geopolitical, corporate or personal — is now on sale, right out in the open.”

The White House told The Washington Post that Trump’s Truth Social post sought only to “reassure” the public and that he had a responsibility to “reassure markets and Americans about their economic security.”

TSMC, ASML outlooks to reveal depths of tariff pain, AI pullback

By Bloomberg News
 April 15, 2025 


Earnings from two chip-industry giants this week are poised to provide an early insight into issues that have punctured investor confidence and sent valuations to multiyear lows.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and ASML Holding NV have born the brunt of a broader market selloff, weighed down by both U.S. tariff threats and doubts over future artificial intelligence demand. Chipmaker TSMC is down down roughly 20% this year and chip-equipment maker ASML has fallen 12%.

The rout saw TSMC’s forward price-to-earnings ratio hit a two-year low at one point, while pushing ASML to its cheapest level since the Covid pandemic.

(Bloomberg)

Concern over a potential slowdown in AI demand has intensified after a string of analyst warnings, while the tariff saga has thrown global businesses’ decision making into a tailspin. All that has heightened investor focus on whether the appetite for AI chips can hold up.

“Both ASML and TSMC are quite heavily discounted” and “a lot of risks have clearly been priced in,” said Ben Barringer, a technology analyst at Quilter Cheviot. “But with uncertainty around what tariffs are going to look like for semiconductors, it is hard to see a re-rating without more concrete news to go off.”


While current quarterly earnings should show sales and income increasing sharply at both companies, the focus will be on their earnings guidance amid trade tensions and a worsening macro backdrop. Changes to outlooks are widely expected, while some analysts are bracing for guidance to be withdrawn altogether.
Temporary relief

Global semiconductor stocks showed some signs of relief on Monday, after the Trump administration exempted smartphones and other electronic devices from reciprocal tariffs, a win for iPhone maker Apple Inc. and its suppliers, including TSMC. ASML’s chipmaking machines are also excused from extra levies.

But the reprieve is likely to be brief, as the exemptions are temporary and the administration pushed forward with plans for tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports by initiating probes on both sectors.

Apart from direct tariffs, the concern is that higher levies across the board will restrain growth, boding ill for a sector that’s highly sensitive to economic cycles. For chips used for AI workloads, even though they remain in hot demand, the question is how much longer that’s going to last.

“The eventual sectoral tariffs will make investing in U.S.-based data centers more risky, and perhaps catalyze a broader slowdown in new data center construction, which further adds to earnings risk of TSMC and the supply chain,” said Morningstar analyst Phelix Lee.

Industry headwinds aside, both TSMC and ASML are struggling with their own issues. Reports over a potential tie-up with the struggling Intel Corp. has clouded the outlook for TSMC, with analysts questioning the strategic merit of the move given the two firms’ differences in business models and tool sets. It also pledged to invest $100 billion in the U.S., a potential drag on future margins.

For ASML, spending plans at its key client Intel remain in flux, as the American chipmaker has just named a new chief executive. Meanwhile, another top customers, Samsung Electronics Co., faces production challenges in ramping up leading-edge chips.

“Although TSMC and ASML have largely accounted for the impact of global trade tensions in their current cyclical trough valuations, we expect some near-term downside risk to earnings over the next two quarters,” said Gary Tan, a portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments.

Outlook uncertainty

Bullish investors may argue that expectations have already been much tempered in the lead-up to results. The two companies’ tech dominance remains unshaken. ASML’s advanced lithography tools are essential for the making of all cutting-edge chips. TSMC’s foundry services are crucial to Nvidia and Apple’s chips as Intel and Samsung lag behind.

Still, a growing chorus of analysts predicts weakness ahead, and many are lowering their share-price targets. While TSMC had projected mid-20% revenue growth for 2025, JPMorgan reckons the chipmaker will pare that slightly to target low- to mid-20% expansion.

As for ASML, investors expect 2025 guidance remaining intact, while preparing for 2026 revenues to undershoot analysts estimates, a JPMorgan client survey showed. The company could also withdraw its guidance as customers adjust to tariffs, Deutsche Bank AG said.

Nori Chiou, an investment director at White Oak Capital Partners, says chipmakers’ upcoming results “are unlikely to be too bad,” because AI demand is still robust.

“However, the uncertainty around AI demand for next year is rising,” Chiou said. “Policy volatility could impact how the next round of long-term planning gets made, and that’s something worth watching closely.”

With assistance from Cindy Wang and Jane Lanhee Lee.

Henry Ren and Charlotte Yang, Bloomberg News

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

GREENWASHING

Bank climate group says strategy pivot wins `overwhelming support’

By Bloomberg News
Published: April 15, 2025 


Most banks in the industry’s biggest climate alliance endorsed a proposal that will refocus the group on providing financial support for the energy transition and also hold signatories to a less stringent standard for reducing the emissions enabled by their lending.

Shargiil Bashir, chair of the steering group for the Net-Zero Banking Alliance, said in an interview that “well above” two-thirds of members voted on implementing a new strategy, and of those, more than 90% support the new direction. While he declined to provide a breakdown by region or disclose how specific banks voted, Bashir said the plan had “overwhelming support” from the group’s approximately 130 members.

The vote of confidence in NZBA follows a tumultuous few months for the group. While once claiming to represent more than 40% of global banking assets, the alliance’s asset base has contracted by about a third, or roughly US$27 trillion, since the beginning of December, according to data from its website.

What started as a Wall Street exodus, with U.S. banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. leaving NZBA, became a bigger walkout, with the largest lenders in Canada and Japan also quitting the alliance.

The next phase for NZBA is “moving from a direction that was very much about net zero target-setting towards implementation,” said Bashir, who is also the chief sustainability officer at First Abu Dhabi Bank. This means “unlocking those opportunities to support and finance the transition,” he said.

The new approach is intended to offer greater flexibility to members. Requirements such as the need to set five-year goals for reducing the financed emissions from high-carbon sectors will now become recommendations, according to briefing documents that NZBA shared with its members. In addition, a prior mandate for signatories to align their portfolios with an aim of limiting global warming to 1.5C will be done away with.

NZBA previously demanded members transition all greenhouse gas emissions from their lending and investment portfolios “to align with pathways to net zero” by 2050 at the latest “consistent with a maximum temperature rise of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.”

Under the new proposal, the “framework’s ambition will be broadened” to include all net zero pathways aligned with Paris agreement temperature goals, including those aiming for “well below 2C,” according to the briefing documents.

At the current pace of decarbonization, the United Nations has warned that the world is on course for closer to 3C of warming. And within that context, it’s particularly notable that more than 100 banks have set 1.5C-aligned sectoral emissions reductions goals, Bashir said.

Still, greater flexibility on target-setting is needed because the pace of decarbonization varies widely across countries and industries, he said.

The new look NZBA will put a greater emphasis on helping its members support their clients in the low-carbon transition. It also will offer technical guidance on issues such as avoided emissions and identify and develop strategies that address barriers to financing for certain green technologies, according to the briefing documents.

“We’re halfway through the critical decade for action on climate, and we need all sectors, including banking and finance, to commit to moving the needle on emissions reductions,” Bashir said.

The biggest European banks, including BNP Paribas SA, HSBC Holdings Plc and UBS Group AG, are members of NZBA, and so are Barclays Plc, Deutsche Bank AG and Standard Chartered Plc.

A BNP spokesperson said the bank is “pursuing our strategy to support the energy transition, regardless of how the various net zero alliances evolve.”

Spokespeople for HSBC and StanChart declined to comment on whether they endorsed NZBA’s proposal, while the other banks didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Triodos Bank, based in the Netherlands, said Tuesday in a statement that it’s leaving NZBA because of the members’ vote to lower the alliance’s climate ambition and set less strict requirements.

With assistance from Natasha White and Sarah Jacob.

Alastair Marsh, Bloomberg News

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

Global oil surplus to persist in 2026 as demand sags, IEA says

By Grant Smith
Published: April 15, 2025

A pumpjack in Martin County, Texas, Saturday, March 15, 2025. 

(Justin Hamel/Bloomberg)

The International Energy Agency slashed forecasts for global oil demand this year amid the brewing trade war, and in its first detailed assessment of 2026 predicted a persistent supply surplus.

The adviser to major economies chopped projections for 2025 demand growth by a hefty 300,000 barrels a day — or almost a third — to 730,000 barrels a day, according to a monthly report on Tuesday. Half of the reduction was concentrated in the US and China, which are engaged in a full-blown trade war.

Consumption growth will be even slower in 2026, at 690,000 barrels a day, due to “a fragile macroeconomic environment” and the rising popularity of electric vehicles, the Paris-based agency said.

“The deteriorating outlook for the global economy amid the sudden sharp escalation in trade tensions in early April has prompted a downgrade to our forecast,” IEA analysts wrote.

The downgrade follow a slump in oil prices to a four-year low below $60 a barrel in London last week, after US President Donald Trump announced a slew of punitive trade tariffs. Brent futures have since recovered a little, trading near $65 on Tuesday.


Trump’s move, coupled with a surprise decision by OPEC+ producers to accelerate production increases next month, spurred a series of oil-price revisions from Wall Street giants including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

As the market slump takes a toll on US drillers, the IEA also lowered estimates for new supplies outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries this year by 200,000 barrels a day to 1.3 million barrels a day.

These supply additions will still be more than enough to satisfy the subdued rate of demand, both this year and next. In 2026, production outside OPEC+ will expand by a “robust” 920,000 barrels a day, with growth still dominated by the US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana. The global overhang will balloon to 1.7 million barrels a day during the first quarter of next year, according to the agency’s data.

Amid the gloom, the report showed some lingering signs of strength in the oil market. Demand growth during the first quarter was at its strongest since 2023, and world oil inventories are hovering “near the bottom of the five-year range.”

Yet the overall outlook is bearish. Even OPEC’s secretariat — typically more bullish than other forecasters — has acknowledged the deteriorating picture, trimming oil demand projections in its latest monthly report on Monday. Its estimates remain considerably higher than the IEA’s and Wall Street’s.

OPEC leader Saudi Arabia has surprisingly appeared to encourage the market downturn, steering the group to bolster output by three times the scheduled amount in May in a bid to compel fellow members to abide by their output limits. It may be a strategy only for the short term.

For the IEA, the slowdown in growth from the recent average of around 1 million barrels a day fits with its broader outlook that oil consumption will stop growing this decade as the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy gathers momentum.

(IEA)

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

Investors haven’t been this bearish in 30 years, BofA poll shows

By Bloomberg News
 April 15, 2025 


Investor sentiment regarding economic prospects is the most negative in three decades, yet fund managers’ pessimism isn’t fully reflected in their asset allocation which could mean more losses for U.S. stocks, a Bank of America Corp. survey shows.

Fund managers are extremely gloomy, with 82% of respondents to BofA’s monthly survey expecting the global economy to weaken. Consequently, a record number intend to reduce exposure to U.S. equities, according to the poll.

Fund mangers are “max bearish on macro, not quite max bearish on the market,” strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note. “Peak fear” is not yet reflected in cash allocations, which currently stands at 4.8% of assets and would typically need to rise to 6%, they added.

High uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and a spike in financial-market volatility has unsettled stock investors. Respondents are a net 36% underweight U.S. stocks in April, down from 17% overweight in February, the biggest ever two-month drop.

Source: Bank of America (Source: Bank of America)

U.S. equities have underperformed this year amid concern that U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war will hurt growth, with 42% of survey respondents saying that a recession is likely in the world’s biggest economy.

The S&P 500 has bounced from this month’s low but its year-to-date 8.1% drop lags European and Chinese benchmarks. BofA strategists expect the April lows to hold in the near-term and warned that “big upside needs big tariff easing, big Fed rate cuts, and/or economic data resilience.”

There were 164 participants with US$386 billion in assets under management in the global poll conducted on April 4-10.

Michael Msika, Bloomberg News

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.