Thursday, March 26, 2026

ANALYSIS

How Hezbollah is rebuilding its military power despite political isolation



Beirut – Hezbollah is facing growing isolation in Lebanon, with political leaders and the government turning against it. But despite that pressure – and heavy losses in war – the group has continued to show unexpected strength on the battlefield.


Issued on: 26/03/2026 - RFI

Hezbollah fighters attend the funeral of three of their members, including Haitham Tabatabaï, a senior military commander, in November 2025. © Hussein Malla / AP


Once respected, admired or feared, Hezbollah is now facing more criticism than ever before. Leaders, politicians, journalists and analysts are no longer mincing their words when it comes to their views on the Shia Islamist party and its paramilitary wing.

The party, which has a large parliamentary group and two ministers in the Lebanese government, finds itself isolated, almost ostracised. Its representatives are no longer welcome on television programmes, its leaders accused of "anti-patriotism".

And this wave of anti-Hezbollah sentiment, unprecedented in Lebanon, is not confined to criticism in the media.


Ambassador expelled



On Tuesday, Foreign Minister Joe Raggi – who is close to the Christian Lebanese Forces party – announced that the Iranian ambassador’s accreditation had been withdrawn and gave him until Sunday to leave Lebanese territory.

On 2 March, soon after the outbreak of the war on Iran being waged by Israel and the United States, the Lebanese government outlawed Hezbollah's military wing and declared its security activities "illegal", instructing the army to enforce these unprecedented measures.

A few days later, three Hezbollah fighters who had been arrested in possession of weapons whilst travelling to southern Lebanon to confront Israeli troops were brought before the military court, a special tribunal responsible for hearing cases relating to state security.

While the three men were released on bail equivalent to $20, the fact that they were brought to trial was in itself unusual.

"I would have liked to implement the decisions more quickly, but we inherited many years of inaction and have begun arresting Hezbollah members in possession of illegal weapons,” Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said in an interview with TV channel al-Hadath.

Hezbollah, through its secretary-general Naim Qassem and several of its leaders, has rejected all these accusations.

It claims to have started the war to “defend Lebanon” and to retaliate against “the Israelis’ ongoing violations of the ceasefire” – referring to the fact that in the past 15 months, Israel has killed some 400 of its members in strikes carried out across Lebanon, despite the truce agreed on 27 November 2024.

Weakened by war


Hezbollah’s political decline, however, stands in stark contrast to its military performance, which has taken observers – including those in Israel – by surprise.

The party had emerged severely weakened from the war with Israel between October 2023 and November 2024. Its charismatic secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated on 27 September 2024, followed by his designated successor Hashem Safieddine on 5 October.

There were heavy losses from its ranks, estimated at 4,000 dead and 10,000 wounded.

Following the ceasefire, the Lebanese army dismantled Hezbollah's infrastructure south of the Litani River with support from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Nearly 700 tunnels, depots and weapons caches were discovered, destroyed or neutralised during the operation.

Four hundred deaths were recorded following the truce, during which UNIFIL reported 7,500 Israeli airspace violations and 2,500 ground incursions.

In addition, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria on 8 December 2024 saw disruption of Hezbollah's land supply lines.

Written off as finished, the group surprised observers by deploying significant firepower, using weapons it was previously unknown to have, and engaging Israeli troops at the border – the very place it was supposed to have no presence left.

Opportunity to rebuild


“It is clear that Hezbollah has rebuilt its military capabilities based on the concept of decentralisation,” explained Elias Farhat, a retired general in the Lebanese Army.

“It has deployed its forces in small units and adopted a strategy of mobile defence. This was evident in the fighting, particularly in the battles that took place at Taybeh [5km from the border], where it destroyed six Israeli tanks in 90 minutes.”

This nighttime battle was filmed using thermal cameras and the video was widely circulated.

In recent weeks, sources close to Hezbollah have spoken of a “major step forward in the reconstruction of military capabilities”. Many analysts dismissed these claims as propaganda aimed at boosting the morale of a weary and vulnerable grassroots support base. However, events on the ground have proven them wrong.

Hezbollah's military and security apparatus has been taken over by a third generation of commanders, aged between 30 and 40, who have completely reorganised its structures, sought to address weaknesses – particularly regarding exposure to Israeli intelligence services – and overhauled its military doctrine.

“The party has rebuilt its chain of command and appointed replacements for the commanders who were killed,” said Farhat. “These new commanders are young, have completed higher education and hold degrees in scientific and technical fields. Clashes with the Israeli army demonstrate their professional conduct and extensive military knowledge.”

Hybrid warfare


Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, an expert on Hezbollah and author of Hizbu’llah: Politics and Religion, has examined the new combat doctrine it is employing in the current war. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), she refers to a “return to forms of hybrid warfare that predate the current conflict by a considerable margin”.

She says Hezbollah has shifted to “smaller cells, streamlined chains of command, mobile warfare and surprise attacks”.

These adjustments represent “a return to what Hassan Nasrallah called ‘Imad Mughniyeh’s school of war’, which characterised the 2006 conflict” – during which Hezbollah thwarted all Israeli attempts at ground advances.

The "Mughniyeh model" – named for the Hezbollah military commander assassinated in Damascus in February 2008 – is based on dispersed forces organised into small units, combining guerrilla-style mobility and tactical surprise with the military capabilities typical of regular armies.

According to Saad-Ghorayeb: “This unique hybrid model developed by the former Hezbollah commander was studied in American military manuals precisely because it challenged the traditional distinction between conventional and unconventional warfare on which American military doctrine was based.”

To counter the systematic infiltration of its intelligence and communications systems – which enabled the Israelis to locate and assassinate a large number of its commanders during the last war – Hezbollah now relies on handwritten notes, human couriers or other forms of communication with a low electronic signature.

This explains why, despite the intensity of its air strikes, the Israeli military has not yet managed to identify and eliminate the new senior commanders.

Firepower


Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s sustained barrage of rockets and missiles on northern Israel – more than 2,000 projectiles have been fired since 2 March – demonstrates significant firepower, despite the depots destroyed by the Israelis and those seized by the Lebanese army.

The type of weaponry used is also notable. In addition to variants of Russia's Kornet anti-tank missiles, it has introduced Iranian Almas 2 and 3 missiles, which are capable of defeating the Trophy protection system deployed by Israel's Merkava 4 tanks.

On 18 March, Hezbollah fired a projectile for the first time at the Israeli city of Ashkelon, 200km from the border, demonstrating that it possesses long-range, high-precision missiles.

According to Farhat: "Based on Israeli sources which, prior to the last war, put the figure at 150,000 projectiles, and Israel’s announcement that 70 percent of the arsenal had been destroyed, 45,000 missiles may still remain. That would be enough to sustain the war effort for months."

This article has been adapted from the original version in French by RFI's correspondent in Beirut, Paul Khalifeh.

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