It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Friday, November 13, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic: How US universities responded
George Mason University study finds large majority of universities studied made quick announcements following the World Health Organization's pandemic declaration
As the COVID-19 pandemic began in the United States, universities were forced to make difficult operational decisions to help slow the spread of the disease and protect their students, faculty, staff, and community members. Guidance from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Prevention, the World Health Organization (WHO), and other agencies informed these decisions about non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI)--the only interventions available at the early stages of the pandemic.
A new George Mason University College of Health and Human Services (CHHS) study found that most university announcements coincided with the WHO pandemic declaration on March 11, 2020. The study, published in PLOS ONE, was led by Master of Public Health student Kevin Cevasco, with collaboration from fellow Mason students *, CHHS global and community health faculty Drs. Michael von Fricken and Amira Roess, and Mason's Executive Director for Safety and Emergency Management David Farris.
"When the pandemic began, we realized how important it could be to track university decisions on NPIs," explains von Fricken, assistant professor of epidemiology.
For the study, the researchers created an original database of COVID-19-related NPI university policies. They included data from 575 universities that were four-year degree-granting institutions with more than 5,000 students. The researchers included universities from all 50 states and the District of Columbia, using the Department of Education Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) to select the data so they would have additional variables available for the study such as census information and private/public university status.
Cevasco and colleagues examined when and if universities made four types of decisions between February 25 and March 31, 2020: moving courses online, discouraging campus housing, canceling travel, closing campus, and remote working.
About 75% of universities implemented all five of these recommendations, 93% implemented four, and 98% implemented at least three.
Announcements about canceling university-sponsored international travel (including study abroad) were made earliest, with these announcements beginning February 25 and more than half canceling international travel by March 11. Of those universities who made international travel announcements, all had canceled international travel by March 26.
Announcements to move to remote learning also came quickly, with all universities making announcements between March 4 and March 20. Seventy-three percent of these announcements were made between the day of the WHO pandemic declaration (March 11), and the U.S. national emergency declaration (March 13). Announcements discouraging on-campus housing came soon after and were made by 82% of universities between March 9 and March 20.
"The timing of NPI decisions may have avoided the movement of millions of students back onto campus and ensuing instances of community spread," explains Cevasco. "We can also expect that university return-to-campus plans and management of on-campus cases may vary widely given university differences in spring 2020 closure decisions. Both could be important areas to study in future work."
The data collected for this study have been published by the authors under the article's supporting information and are available for future study purposes. The authors call for researchers to provide feedback to state and federal leaders for more clear and concise guidance that assists universities in making decisions.
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*Collaborating George Mason University graduate and undergraduate students included Hayley M. North, Sheryne A. Zeitoun, Rachel N. Wofford, Graham A. Matulis, Abigail F. Gregory, Maha H. Hassan, and Aya D. Abdo.
George Mason University is Virginia's largest and most diverse public research university. Located near Washington, D.C., Mason enrolls 39,000 students from 130 countries and all 50 states. Mason has grown rapidly over the past half-century and is recognized for its innovation and entrepreneurship, remarkable diversity and commitment to accessibility. For more information, visit https://www2.gmu.edu/.
George Mason University's College of Health and Human Services prepares students to become leaders and shape the public's health through academic excellence, research of consequence, community outreach, and interprofessional clinical practice. George Mason is the fastest-growing Research I institution in the country. The College enrolls more than 1,900 undergraduate and 1,370 graduate students in its nationally-recognized offerings, including: 5 undergraduate degrees, 13 graduate degrees, and 7 certificate programs. The college is transitioning to a college public health in the near future. For more information, visit https://chhs.gmu.edu/.
Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the a
Studies detail impact of mammal species decline in Neotropics
Group led by Brazilian ecologist shows defaunation wiped out 40% of the ecosystem services provided or supported by mammals, such as ecotourism, disease control and soil formation. Large-bodied mammals are disappearing fastest.
FUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO
IMAGE: DEFAUNATION WIPED OUT 40% OF THE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES PROVIDED OR SUPPORTED BY MAMMALS, SUCH AS ECOTOURISM, DISEASE CONTROL AND SOIL FORMATION. LARGE-BODIED MAMMALS ARE DISAPPEARING FASTEST view more
CREDIT: ICMBIO
Mammal defaunation - the loss of mammals to extinction, extirpation and population decline - in the Neotropics and its adverse effects is the focus for two scientific papers produced recently by a group of scientists led by Juliano André Bogoni (https://bv.fapesp.br/en/pesquisador/698900/juliano-andre-bogoni), an ecologist at the University of São Paulo (USP) in Brazil. The Neotropical realm extends south from the Mexican desert into South America as far as the Sub-Antarctic zone.
In the first paper, published (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212041620301157?via%3Dihub) in August in Ecosystem Services, the researchers estimate that defaunation has wiped out more than 40% of the ecosystem services provided by mammals, such as supplying animal protein for traditional populations and controlling disease, for example. However, small-bodied species are often "backed up" by others that perform the same ecosystem services.
Defaunation across the Neotropics has erased 56% of medium- to large-bodied mammal species, according to the second paper, published (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-72010-w) in September in Scientific Reports. The authors propose a novel Hunting Pressure Index (HPI) to indicate a site's vulnerability to illegal hunting, based on factors that inhibit or intensify the activity. They also show that the surviving mammals are the smallest.
According to Bogoni, the researchers were surprised by the findings of the first study. "We knew that while mammal species are declining very rapidly in the Neotropics, there are still 'backups': for every species that disappears, another survives to perform the same service," he said. "But this isn't the case for all species. There are families like Cricetidae [rodents such as rats, mice, voles, etc.] in which there may be 30 species in a genus and as many as 100 species in 'sibling groups', which are closely related in evolutionary and morphological terms. In other words, there are many overlapping species among small mammals and flyers [bats]. If we had confined our analysis to medium- and large-bodied mammals, the loss of ecosystem services would have been far greater."
Apex predators are cases in which there may be no such overlapping. "Only one backup exists in many places. Jaguar and puma, for example. When one is lost, only the other remains, if they coexist in the same place, which they often don't, so loss of the species means loss of the services," Bogoni said.
To establish the methodology, the scientists simulated two types of defaunation scenario: stochastic (i.e. random, assuming all groups of mammals decline at the same rate) and deterministic (driven by a feature of the environment or animal group). "The deterministic scenario is 'real life', what's happening now," Bogoni explained. "I had no idea which groups would be most penalized because we hadn't yet published the second paper, so I also simulated a stochastic scenario for the sake of comparison."
Eroded ecosystem services
The team divided the ecosystem services provided by mammals into four groups: provision, including protein for traditional populations, seed dispersal, forest regeneration, and genetic resources; regulation, including climate regulation, disease and pest control, biological control, disaster recovery, and pollination; cultural services, including ecotourism, ethnocultural identity, aesthetics, and education; and support, including soil formation, nutrient cycling, oxygen production, and primary productivity.
The ecosystem services most eroded under the different defaunation scenarios were ecotourism (43.4%), soil formation (39.8%), disease control (39.6%), protein acquisition for subsistence (38.0%) and ethnocultural identity (37.3%). The loss to these services under the deterministic defaunation scenario ranged from 38.9% to 53.0% compared to the baseline.
Under the deterministic scenario, the main ecosystem services affected across different defaunation regimes were ecotourism, soil formation, disease control, and protein acquisition by traditional people, all of which declined by over 40%.
According to Bogoni, some services, such as ethnocultural identity, can decline very quickly. "People mostly identify with apex predators or animals with charismatic ecomorphological traits," he said. "Rats are unlikely to symbolize ethnocultural identity, whereas jaguars have gripped people's imagination since pre-Columbian times. Another example of severe decline in services is the provision of animal protein for traditional communities in the form of subsistence hunting. This is a service without much backup and one of those that have declined most. The less backup, the greater the possibility of decline and even complete disappearance."
Bogoni undertook a vast literature review in search of articles on the ecosystem services provided by mammals in accordance with ecomorphological criteria. Ecomorphology is the study of the interactions between morphological structures, ecology and evolution, including the behavioral factors that determine resource use. "It's delicate to establish this trait because it's putative: we predetermined that this or that animal provides certain services based on some of the animal's characteristics," he said. "The input came from data in the literature and criteria such as body size, diet, etc. To avoid biases and skewing, we consulted eight experts in mammalogy to obtain additional attributions of ecosystem services. The difference between our attributions and those of the experts was 3% on average. Service attributions in the paper were therefore highly credible, albeit putative."
The researchers compiled data for 1,153 mammal species in 2,427 assemblages distributed across some 20.4 million square kilometers in Latin America. One definition of an assemblage is a taxonomically related group of species that occur together in space and time.
Bogoni said it took six to seven months to design the project, compile the database, and begin the analysis.
Loss of habitat and hunting
The second article discusses defaunation intensity and the pressure placed by hunting on large mammals in the Neotropics. "Based on current defaunation data I've been compiling since 2015 and statistics from the International Union for Conservation of Nature [IUCN] pointing to the approximate distribution of mammals in predetermined polygons, we assumed the polygons corresponded to the distribution of the animals concerned in pre-colonial America and made the comparison. I did the analysis for 1,029 assemblages," Bogoni said.
He added that the researchers used a mathematical approach called confusion matrix to handle false negatives - situations in which an animal was presumed present but was not in the modern database. "Applying this matrix to 'correct' for possible false negatives, our results showed mean adjusted defaunation of 56.5%," he said. "The most severe defaunation rates were in Central America, the Caatinga biome in Northeast Brazil, and the northern portion of South America."
The key finding, he said, was that "assemblages have been downsized. A breakdown of the data by assemblage should show animals weighing 14 kilograms in 95% of cases according to the historical average, but now they weigh only 4 kg. In other words, only the smaller animals have survived. Defaunation is not only pervasive but also mainly concerns large-bodied animals, probably owing above all to loss of habitat accentuated by hunting."
Bogoni and colleagues also propose a novel Hunting Pressure Index (HPI) based on factors that inhibit or intensify hunting and especially poaching. "In the section on methods we list several. For example, latitude: the lower the latitude, the closer to the equator, and the more species, biomass and productivity, the more likely there will be hunting than at the extremes, which are inhabited only by scattered populations of small-bodied animals," Bogoni said. "The same goes for altitude: the higher the elevation, the less prey and the fewer opportunities for hunting. We considered other factors, such as artificial lighting or the ratio of primary productivity to plant biomass. Environments with high productivity and low biomass are probably pasturelands, and if there's livestock there's animal protein so there's no need to hunt."
The results showed fairly high HPI values for a vast swathe of the Neotropics totaling some 17 million square kilometers, including the Amazon, Cerrado (Central Brazil savanna), Caatinga (semi-arid Northeast), and Argentine Patagonia. "We're trying to understand whether habitat loss or hunting accounts for more defaunation," Bogoni said. "For now, all the research points to both as a synergistic effect, but we want to understand them separately so that conservation strategies can take these nuances into account."
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About São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)
The São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) is a public institution with the mission of supporting scientific research in all fields of knowledge by awarding scholarships, fellowships and grants to investigators linked with higher education and research institutions in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. FAPESP is aware that the very best research can only be done by working with the best researchers internationally. Therefore, it has established partnerships with funding agencies, higher education, private companies, and research organizations in other countries known for the quality of their research and has been encouraging scientists funded by its grants to further develop their international collaboration. You can learn more about FAPESP at http://www.fapesp.br/en and visit FAPESP news agency at http://www.agencia.fapesp.br/en to keep updated with the latest scientific breakthroughs FAPESP helps achieve through its many programs, awards and research centers. You may also subscribe to FAPESP news agency at http://agencia.fapesp.br/subscribe.
Environmentally friendly method could lower costs to recycle lithium-ion batteries
IMAGE: SEM IMAGE OF SPENT LITHIUM IRON PHOSPHATE (LFP) CATHODE BEFORE REGNERATION (LEFT) AND AFTER (RIGHT). view more
CREDIT: PANPAN XU
A new process for restoring spent cathodes to mint condition could make it more economical to recycle lithium-ion batteries. The process, developed by nanoengineers at the University of California San Diego, is more environmentally friendly than today's methods; it uses greener ingredients, consumes 80 to 90% less energy, and emits about 75% less greenhouse gases.
Researchers detail their work in a paper published Nov 12 in Joule.
The process works particularly well on cathodes made from lithium iron phosphate, or LFP. Batteries made with LFP cathodes are less costly than other lithium-ion batteries because they don't use expensive metals like cobalt or nickel. LFP batteries also have longer lifetimes and are safer. They are widely used in power tools, electric buses and energy grids. They are also the battery of choice for Tesla's Model 3.
"Given these advantages, LFP batteries will have a competitive edge over other lithium-ion batteries in the market," said Zheng Chen, a professor of nanoengineering at UC San Diego.
The problem? "It's not cost-effective to recycle them," Chen said. "It's the same dilemma with plastics--the materials are cheap, but the methods to recover them are not."
The new recycling process that Chen and his team developed could lower these costs. It does the job at low temperatures (60 to 80 C) and ambient pressure, making it less power hungry than other methods. Also, the chemicals it uses--lithium salt, nitrogen, water and citric acid--are inexpensive and benign.
"The whole regeneration process works at very safe conditions, so we don't need any special safety precautions or special equipment. That's why we can make this so low cost for recycling batteries," said first author Panpan Xu, a postdoctoral researcher in Chen's lab.
The researchers first cycled commercial LFP cells until they had lost half their energy storage capacity. They took the cells apart, collected the cathode powders, and soaked them in a solution containing lithium salt and citric acid. Then they washed the solution with water, dried the powders and heated them.
The researchers made new cathodes from the powders and tested them in both coin cells and pouch cells. Their electrochemical performance, chemical makeup and structure were all fully restored to their original states.
As the battery cycles, the cathode undergoes two main structural changes that are responsible for its decline in performance. The first is the loss of lithium ions, which creates empty sites called vacancies in the cathode structure. The other occurs when iron and lithium ions switch spots in the crystal structure. When this happens, they cannot easily switch back, so lithium ions become trapped and can no longer cycle through the battery.
The process restores the cathode's structure by replenishing lithium ions and making it easy for iron and lithium ions to switch back to their original spots. The latter is accomplished using citric acid, which acts as a reducing agent--a substance that donates an electron to another substance. Citric acid transfers electrons to the iron ions, making them less positively charged. This minimizes the electronic repulsion forces that prevent the iron ions from moving back into their original spots in the crystal structure, and also releases the lithium ions back into circulation.
While the overall energy costs of this recycling process are lower, researchers say further studies are needed on the logistics of collecting, transporting and handling large quantities of batteries.
"Figuring out how to optimize these logistics is the next challenge," Chen said. "And that will bring this recycling process closer to industry adoption."
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Climate change: Ending greenhouse gas emissions may not stop global warming
Even if human-induced greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced to zero, global temperatures may continue to rise for centuries afterwards, according to a simulation of the global climate between 1850 and 2500 published in Scientific Reports.
Jorgen Randers and colleagues modelled the effect of different greenhouse gas emission reductions on changes in the global climate from 1850 to 2500 and created projections of global temperature and sea level rises.
The modelling suggests that under conditions where anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions peak during the 2030s and decline to zero by 2100, global temperatures will be 3°C warmer and sea levels 3 metres higher by 2500 than they were in 1850. Under conditions where all anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions are reduced to zero during the year 2020 the authors estimate that, after an initial decline, global temperatures will still be around 3°C warmer and sea levels will rise by around 2.5 metres by 2500, compared to 1850. The authors suggest that global temperatures could continue to increase after anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have reduced, as continued melting of Arctic ice and carbon-containing permafrost may increase the greenhouse gases' water vapour, methane and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Melting of Arctic ice and permafrost would also reduce the area of ice reflecting heat and light from the sun.
To prevent the projected temperature and sea level rises, the authors suggest that all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would have had to be reduced to zero between 1960 and 1970. To prevent global temperature and sea level rises after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, and to limit the potentially catastrophic impacts of this on Earth's ecosystems and human society, at least 33 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide would need to be removed from the atmosphere each year from 2020 onwards through carbon capture and storage methods, according to the authors.
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Article details
An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020
DOI:
10.1038/s41598-020-75481-z
Corresponding Author:
Jorgen Randers BI Norwegian Business School, Oslo, Norway Email: jorgen.randers@bi.no
To date, numerous studies had looked at think tanks and networks involved in the climate change counter movement in the US. Now, for the first time, the most important contrarian climate change think tanks in Europe have been studied systematically. The study whose first author, Núria Almiron, is a researcher with the UPF Department of Communication, covers a 24-year period (1994-2018) and takes account of the messages issued in six European countries, in four languages.
For the first time, an organized climate change counter movement led by conservative groups in Europe has been studied rigorously
"We have studied the messages issued with reference to climate change since this topic first emerged. The discourse we have found is a carbon copy of that used by American denialists. They repeat the same thing, even in some cases where climate change does not exist", says Núria Almiron. "As in the United States, in Europe contrarian think tanks have a neoliberal ideological stance", she adds.
The study, carried out within the framework of the THINKClima project, funded by the Spanish National Research Agency (AEI) and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), was published on 9 September in the international journal Climatic Change, and in addition to Almiron it also involved Maxwell Boykoff, a researcher at the University of Colorado Boulder (USA); Marta Narberhaus, a researcher at the International University of Catalonia; and Francisco Heras, an independent researcher.
This study documents for the first time that activities against climate change constitute a global counter movement that is also present in the EU
The authors considered eight European climate change counter movement think tanks, in six countries, studying their messages in four different languages. Their content analysis has shown that the messages issued by European organizations against climate change are very similar to those broadcast in the US. In short, this study documents for the first time that activities against climate change constitute a global counter movement that is also present in the EU.
Therefore, the main conclusion of the research is that although the organized climate change counter movement had been associated with the US, mainly due to the powers that be related to the coal industry and the political and cultural opposition to environmental movements, and although its influence in Europe is more modest, the study highlights that there is an organized counter movement in Europe led by conservative think tanks.
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Reference work:
Núria Almiron, Maxwell Boykoff, Marta Narberhaus, Francisco Heras (2020), "Dominant counter-frames in influential climate contrarian European think tanks", Climatic Change, 9 September, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02820-4
Special issue: Cooling in a Warming World
AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE
In this special issue of Science, Cooling in a Warming World, three Perspectives and three Reviews highlight the wide array of new and improved technologies and solutions that aim to keep us and the materials we rely on cool, in our rapidly warming planet.
Record-breaking heatwaves and extreme temperature events are on the rise globally; however, their impact is becoming increasingly difficult to quantify. In the first Perspective in this special issue, Steven Sherwood discusses the difficulties associated with predicting and understanding the consequences of regional heat events. He emphasizes that climatic events approaching the limits of human tolerance are already occurring, as highlighted in a spring 2020 Science Advances paper that showed extreme humidity events emerging ahead of projections, for example. According to Sherwood, the world's poor are the most vulnerable to extreme temperatures, highlighting the need for low-cost adaptations and technologies to counter the rising heat. In a second Perspective, Po-Chun Hsu and Xiuqiang Li address how global warming has created a demand for innovative new textiles that help cool those who wear them. "Rather than engineering the existing clothing materials," they say, "the key to radiative cooling is to re-invent the material so that it is transparent in mid-infrared, allowing the thermal radiation from the hot human skin to bypass the textile and directly reach the ambience." A final Perspective by Amy Fleischer highlights the growing demand for cooling at data centers, where vast amounts of information are stored and supported , and the majority of the total energy required to keep them online is used for cooling. Fleisher describes the improvements and novel approaches used to address rising energy demands for data center cooling that could be applied without increasing cost and emissions.
In a Review, Mark McLinden and colleagues offer an overview of vapor-compression refrigeration - perhaps the most widely used cooling technology on Earth. Most refrigeration and air conditioning systems are based on vapor compression. However, they lack efficiency and often contain harmful refrigerants, which can further contribute to atmospheric greenhouse gasses. McLinden et al. discuss how the high global warming potential of current vapor-compression cooling equipment has led to an effort to improve the technology and develop new and more environmentally friendly alternative refrigerants. In a second Review, Xavier Moya and Neil Mathur provide an overview of using caloric materials for cooling and heating. Caloric materials transport heat as they are electrically, magnetically or mechanically manipulated. According to Moya and Mathur, magnetocaloric, electrocaloric and mechanocaloric materials have shown promise in prototype cooling devices that operate near room temperature. The final Review, by Xiaobo Yin and colleagues, describes the use of passive radiative cooling materials, which leverage an atmospheric window to release heat in the form of infrared radiation into the coldness of space. When deployed on rooftops, these systems can potentially cool buildings by a few degrees, even in the daytime and under direct sun.
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3D printing -- a 'dusty' business?
Communication No 050/2020 from the BfR of Nov. 6, 2020
To close the substantial gaps in our knowledge, scientists at the German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR) are investigating which particles are released into the environment and what their properties are. Different substances are released into the air depending on the material used for printing. For example, BfR experts were able to detect particles of the widely-used plastic polylactic acid and copper crystals, among other substances.
The size of the particles was 50 nanometres (polylactic acid) and 120 to 150 nanometres (copper). This means that they are so small that they can get into the alveoli, the smallest branches of the lungs. The higher the temperature during "printing", the more particles were released. The BfR is now exploring whether "3D printer dust" poses a health risk.
Consumer safety regarding 3D printers was also the focus of an expert meeting (partly held online) that took place at the BfR on 28 August 2020. In addition to the BfR, the participating institutions were the German Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing (BAM), the German Environment Agency (UBA), the Institute for Occupational Safety and Health of the German Social Accident Insurance (IFA) and the US Consumer Products Safety Commission (CPSC). Research institutes from Technische Universität Berlin, interest groups and mem-bers of the 3D printing association "3DDruck e.V.", in which users and manufacturers are or-ganised, were also represented.
The event focused on fused deposition modelling (FDM, also known as fused filament fabri-cation, FFF). In this additive production process, a thermoplastic, the filament, is heated and then applied layer by layer to create the desired object.
The BfR, BAM and CPSC presented their initial results at the meeting. These showed that volatile components and particles are released during printing. Release is influenced by the materials used (plastic, dyes, additives) and the printing temperature. Investigations con-ducted by BAM and CPSC were carried out with 3D printers, while the BfR also tested 3D printing pens. There is little information available on possible health effects so far, so the BfR sees this as a core research area.
Different measures were discussed to reduce the release and ensure consumer protection. Other issues included possible risks in the subsequent treatment of 3D printed objects (e.g. through smoothing down) as well as the use of other 3D printing methods, such as stereo-lithography (SLA) or selective laser sintering (SLS). Better ways to distribute the information regarding possible health risks to the consumers were also discussed.
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About the BfR
The German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR) is a scientifically independent institution within the portfolio of the Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) in Germany. It advises the German federal government and German federal states ("Laender") on questions of food, chemical and product safety. The BfR conducts its own research on topics that are closely linked to its assessment tasks.
This text version is a translation of the original German text which is the only legally binding version
People of Black ethnicity are twice as likely to be infected with COVID-19 compared to those of White ethnicity, according to researchers at the Universities of Leicester and Nottingham, supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Leicester Biomedical Research Centre. The findings are published in EClinical Medicine by The Lancet today (Thursday 12 November 2020).
People from Asian backgrounds are also 1.5 times more likely to become infected with the virus compared to White individuals.
In the first meta-analysis of the effect of ethnicity on clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19, which screened over 1500 articles, the research team pooled data from more than 18 million people who had taken part in 50 studies in the United Kingdom and United States of America. All the studies included in the analysis were published between 1 December 2019 and 31 August 2020 in peer-reviewed journals or as pre-prints waiting for peer-review.
All the patients included in the study who had COVID-19 were defined as such by a positive nasal swab test or clinical signs and symptoms of the virus, along with radiology and laboratory tests.
Researchers also found those of Asian ethnicities to be at higher risk of admission to an intensive therapy unit (ITU) and death. However, all studies investigating ITU admission that were included in the meta-analysis had not yet been peer-reviewed, and the risk of death was only of borderline statistical significance. This is in contrast to the strong evidence of increased risk of infection in Black and Asian ethnic groups.
Dr Manish Pareek, Associate Clinical Professor in Infectious Diseases at the University of Leicester, Consultant in Infectious Diseases at the University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust and a senior author on the paper, said: "Our findings suggest that the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on Black and Asian communities is mainly attributable to increased risk of infection in these communities.
"Many explanations exist as to why there may be an elevated level of COVID-19 infection in ethnic minority groups, including the greater likelihood of living in larger household sizes comprised of multiple generations; having lower socioeconomic status, which may increase the likelihood of living in overcrowded households; and being employed in frontline roles where working from home is not an option."
Dr Shirley Sze, NIHR Academic Clinical Lecturer and Specialist Registrar in Cardiology at the University of Leicester, and a lead author of the paper, said: "The clear evidence of increased risk of infection amongst ethnic minority groups is of urgent public health importance - we must work to minimise exposure to the virus in these at-risk groups by facilitating their timely access to healthcare resources and target the social and structural disparities that contribute to health inequalities."
Dr Daniel Pan, Specialist Registrar in Infectious Diseases at the University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust and an NIHR Clinical Academic Fellow at the University of Leicester is a lead author of the paper. He said: "Future papers must try to adjust for the risk of infection when looking at the risk of ITU admission and death in COVID-19 patients, in order for us to accurately assess the impact of ethnicity on an individual's risk of death once they are infected".
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The paper, 'Ethnicity and clinical outcomes in COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis' is published in EClinical Medicine by The Lancet on 12 November 2020.
Mental health strained by disaster
Suicide rates increase during hurricanes, tornadoes and other similar events, new research finds
Disasters like hurricanes and tornadoes are occurring with increasing frequency and severity across the globe. In addition to impacting local communities, infrastructure and the economy, these disasters also can lead to severe emotional distress and anxiety for those living in their paths.
A team of researchers including the University of Delaware's Jennifer Horney, founding director of the epidemiology program in the College of Health Sciences, examined the impact of 281 natural disasters on suicide rates during a 12-year span.
Horney and others looked at disaster declaration data and found overall suicide rates increased by 23% when compared to rates before and after the disaster. Suicide rates increased for all types of disasters -- including severe storms, floods, hurricanes and ice storms -- with the largest overall increase occurring two years after a disaster, according to an article published in The Journal of Crisis Intervention and Suicide Prevention.
"That finding is important, I think, because those could be preventable deaths with better disaster preparedness and response," Horney said. "It's particularly important to consider the risk of suicide since those with more existing social vulnerabilities live in areas with a greater risk of being damaged by disaster."
The researchers looked at counties in the continental United States with a single major disaster declaration between 2003 and 2015, based on data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). For each county, suicide rates were estimated for three 12-month periods before and after the disaster. Although FEMA gives disaster declarations for nine types of disasters, storms, floods and hurricanes occurred frequently enough to be included in the study.
For all disaster types combined as well as individually for severe storms, flooding and ice storms, researchers found the suicide rate increased in both the first and second year following a disaster, then declined in the third year. Flooding saw suicide rates increase by nearly 18% the first year and 61% the second year before declining to the baseline rate after that.
By contrast, the suicide rate following hurricanes rose in the first year -- jumping 26% -- then returned to the baseline in the second year. "Counties impacted by hurricanes saw the biggest increase in the rate of suicide in the first year, which makes sense because it's the most widespread type of disaster among those we examined," Horney said.
The study only looked at counties with a single disaster declaration and excluded those with multiple disaster episodes. Therefore, "these data are probably underestimate the association between disaster exposure and suicide because we know that there are a lot of additional mental health impacts from repetitive loss," Horney said.
The findings suggest a need for more mental health resources being made available to address challenges that can arise after a natural disaster, Horney said. Policy changes also should address the duration of these funding resources.
"From a policy perspective, we can use this data to say we should really extend funding for mental health services out at least two years after a disaster because people clearly are not yet recovered, even to their old normal, after one year, when this type of funding typically expires" she said. "The goal cannot be to recover to the pre-disaster status quo. We want those impacted by disasters to recover and be more resilient to the mental health impacts of disasters than they were before."
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Researchers find evidence of pandemic fatigue
USC study also reveals differences in preventive behavior based on gender, race, education, state of residence, health condition, and trusted news source
IMAGE: RESEARCH ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR JUNG KI KIM, USC LEONARD DAVIS SCHOOL OF GERONTOLOGY view more
CREDIT: SHARON KIM
A new study from the USC Leonard Davis School of Gerontology shows that the behavioral responses to COVID-19 differed by age. The research, led by Jung Ki Kim, research associate professor at the USC Leonard Davis School, examined how age affected the practice of preventive and risky behaviors in response to COVID-19 and how these behaviors changed over the first three months of the pandemic.
The article was co-authored by University Professor Eileen Crimmins, holder of the AARP Chair in Gerontology, and appeared online in the journal PLOS One on November 10, 2020.
Among the study's findings:
At the beginning of the quarantine period, older people were no more likely than younger people to practice preventive behaviors in response to the pandemic. In fact, in March, older people were no different from younger people in their engagement in wearing a facemask, washing hands frequently, canceling personal and social activities, and avoiding high-risk people, public places and eating at restaurants. However by May, older people were more likely to implement such behaviors.
Except for wearing a mask, people adopted preventive activities in the first month but then reduced the modification of their behaviors somewhat after April, so that the percentage of people taking these preventive behaviors was lower in May than April. However, the use of facemasks continued to increase over time such that the percentage in May was about double that of April.
In terms of risky behaviors, older people were less likely than younger people to have close contact with non-household people and less likely to go to other people's homes a month after the pandemic started. However, both younger and older people tended to resume these potentially risky social behaviors as the pandemic progressed.
"It is encouraging to observe older people taking more preventive personal behaviors as the pandemic progressed as this may have alleviated their risk of infection," said Kim. "However, at the same time, it is concerning that people increased risky social behaviors over time, particularly older people, who could have more adverse consequences from meeting with family and friends."
The researchers speculate that some risky behaviors, such as visiting or being visited by non-household friends and relatives, may be behaviors that people, regardless of age, cannot forgo for months.
Kim and Crimmins analyzed three waves of response data from the Understanding America Study's COVID-19 panel on how often more than 5000 participants, ranging in age from 18 to 101 and categorized into age groups of 18-34, 35-54, 55-64, and 65+, performed five virus-mitigating behaviors during the months of March, April and May of the coronavirus pandemic: (1) wearing a face mask, (2) washing hands with soap or using hand sanitizer several times per day, (3) canceling or postponing personal or social activities, (4) avoiding eating at restaurants, (5) and avoiding public spaces, gatherings or crowds. In addition, they also looked at risky health behaviors: going to another person's residence; having outside visitors such as friends, neighbors or relatives at one's home; attending a gathering with more than 10 people, such as a party, concert or religious service; or having close contact (within six feet) with someone who doesn't live with the respondent.
"Because there is no immediate cure and little treatment for the condition, while scientists are attempting to develop and distribute a vaccine, proper personal and social practices may be the only route to reducing infection for older people," said Kim. "Given more severe consequences for older people once infected, older people should be strongly encouraged to continue taking preventive personal behaviors and not to increase risky behaviors since the virus could be transmitted during these activities."
In addition to age, the researchers also found that other characteristics are related to behavior during the ongoing pandemic: being female, Black, Hispanic or Asian; having a higher education; having underlying conditions; residing in a state where the COVID-19 outbreak was more prevalent; and trusting CNN more than Fox News were all linked to practicing more preventive behaviors in response to COVID-19.
The researchers say that the consistently higher preventive behavioral response of Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians may reflect the knowledge that the pandemic was differentially affecting communities of color. They add that proper work accommodations and protective guidelines may need to be made for persons who are engaging in risky behaviors out of necessity. They also say that people may also respond to state and local government mandates and campaigns on the importance of face covering in states where infection cases are greater, and that apolitical, scientifically based recommendations for behavior through the media could have changed behaviors.
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The collection of the UAS COVID-19 tracking data is supported in part by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and by grant U01AG054580 from the National Institute on Aging. Analysis was supported by the National Institute on Aging, P30 AG017265.
