Friday, January 14, 2022

Burmese flee bombardment as junta ‘makes example’ of city of Loikaw

Up to 170,000 people are thought to have left homes in Myanmar’s Kayah state due to intensified fighting


Members of the Ta’aung National Liberation Army (TNLA),
 gathering in Myanmar's northern Shan state. 
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Min Ye Kyaw and Rebecca Ratcliffe 
South-east Asia correspondent
Fri 14 Jan 2022

Nan and her family had just one hour to gather their belongings and prepare to flee their home. A charity had offered to drive them away from Loikaw, the capital of eastern Myanmar’s Kayah state, to relative safety. She considered staying behind, with the plants, dogs and pigs that she had raised, but knew she had to leave.

Since last week, Loikaw has seen intense fighting between groups opposed to last year’s military coup and the armed forces, which have launched airstrikes and fired artillery. An artillery shell had dropped near Nan’s fence, terrifying her cousin’s children, who ran to hide under their bed. “It was so loud,” she said. “My grandma was shocked and sweating, we had to give her medication to calm her down.” Other homes in Nan’s neighbourhood have been hit.

The UN estimates that half the population of Loikaw have been forced to leave their homes, and that almost 90,000 people from Kayah state, formerly known as Karenni state, are displaced. Estimates by local media and a rights group are far higher, suggesting up to 170,000 people in Kayah, more than half of its population, have left their homes.

Almost one year since the military seized power in Myanmar, the junta faces widespread and defiant opposition to its rule, and to the heinous violence it has inflicted on the public. Alongside a peaceful protest movement, people across the country have resorted to taking up arms, sometimes with support from established ethnic armed organisations.


The military is now battling armed groups on multiple fronts. This includes in Kayah state, where it has been met with strong opposition, and has in turn launched brutal crackdowns. In December, more than 30 people, including children, were killed and their bodies burned in a massacre on Christmas Eve.


On 7 January, a day after fighting intensified, Nan, 26, left her home along with her grandmother – who was in ill health – her parents, cousins and their children.

The drive to Shan state, where they sought refuge, would normally take three and a half hours. Instead, it took the family three days. Fighting forced them to stop and take shelter on the way, only for the attacks to then become so close that there was no option to move again. “They continuously launched behind us as we moved forward,” she said.

Ba Nyar, a spokesperson from Karenni Human Rights Group, said the situation was the most severe he had seen in the state and that 170,000 people are displaced. Many had sought refuge in Buddhist temple compounds, schools and community halls, he said. But people were struggling to access food or basics such as blankets or makeshift roofs to provide shelter at night, he added.

After the recent escalation in fighting, the military has stopped all trucks coming in and out of Loikaw, cutting off supplies, said a volunteer at a refugee camp where about 100 families are sheltering. According to a report by the independent outlet Myanmar Now, the military has also cut off electricity to several areas of Loikaw, halting water supplies and wifi coverage.

More than 650 houses and other civilian properties, including churches, monasteries and schools have been burned down or destroyed in Kayah state since May 2021, according to reports cited by the UN.

This week, the UN special rapporteur for Myanmar, Tom Andrews, called on the junta chief, Min Aung Hlaing, to “immediately halt the air and ground attacks that junta forces have unleashed on Loikaw”, to lift the blockade of those seeking to escape and allow access for those seeking to provide aid and shelter.

The UN’s children’s agency, Unicef, said it was gravely concerned by the escalating conflict and condemned the killing of at least four children across the country, and the maiming of others over the past week. Among those injured are a 12-year-old girl and 16-year-old boy from Loikaw, who were hit by heavy weaponry “following intense airstrikes and mortar attacks”, according to Unicef.

Phil Robertson, the deputy director of Human Rights Watch’s Asia division, said the military had “clearly decided to make an example of Loikaw, hitting it with indiscriminate artillery and aerial bombardment that puts civilians at serious risk of grievous harm”.

“Humanitarian assistance is urgently needed, and NGOs, UN agencies and donors should bend over backwards to get assistance to displaced persons who require it,” he said.

Few remain in Loikaw. One resident who is still in the city said there was shooting on Wednesday evening until 9pm, and that three military helicopters were seen in the sky. “I have to stay very quiet inside my house for my safety and eat what I have,” he said. “I gave everything else to my family.”

He stayed in the city to watch over the family home, but will leave if fighting worsens. “I think we can still leave, but there are many military soldiers hiding on the roads,” he said.

Nan’s family were stopped twice at checkpoints before they eventually reached relative safety in Shan state. Her grandmother, who had heart problems, died before they arrived. Nan believes it was the shock and trauma caused by the sound of the firing of artillery shells.


‘No standing down, no giving up’: Myanmar’s resistance mobilises


Even as the family tried to pause their journey to hold a funeral for her at a nearby town, they were again forced to leave immediately due to worsening violence. Residents from the area were also forced to flee.

Nan has considered returning home. As she drove past the mountains at the back of a truck, she longed to go back. “If my parents are safe, I’d like to go back there even if I have to move from one place to another when fighting takes place in the town,” she said. “I miss home so much.”

 The Myanmar military reportedly attacked using two helicopters in Kawkareik Township, Kayin State, on January 10. Photo Credit: DMG

Myanmar: Junta Carries Out Airstrikes In Kayin State’s Kawkareik Twsp

By 

The Myanmar military conducted airstrikes in clashes this week with the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), the armed wing of the Karen National Union (KNU), in Kawkareik Township, Kayin State, according to local sources.

Fighting broke out between the KNLA and the Myanmar military in the KNU’s Brigade 6 area near the old town of Kawkareik and Migathein village on January 10. A KNLA official said two Myanmar military helicopters had bombarded the area during the fighting.

“The Myanmar military launched attacks against the KNLA using two helicopters. The attack was carried out in response to the heavy casualties during the main offensive,” the official added.

A local resident who spoke on condition of anonymity said artillery shells fired by the Myanmar military fell on Migathein village, destroying at least 10 houses. Many residents of Mingathein village have fled to safer locations near the Thaungyin (Moei) River on the Myanmar-Thailand border.

“The Myanmar military’s helicopters began firing shortly after the fighting. We also heard the sound of artillery firing. Many homes were hit by the artillery shells and were reduced to ashes,” the resident said.

The Myanmar military has not yet commented on the attack. Fighting erupted between the KNLA and Myanmar military in Kawkareik Township on January 6, injuring 11 locals and killing an elderly woman.

As a result of the fighting, more than 2,000 people have been displaced in Kawkareik Township, and relief supplies are needed, including food and medicine, according to relief groups.











DMG
Development Media Group (DMG) was founded on the Thai-Myanmar border 
on January 9, 2012, in accordance with the current requirements of Arakan
(Rakhine) State, by both residents inside the country, and former residents
 now in exile, who see value in meaningful quality media and applying news
 media as a powerful resource for regional stability, peace-making, and holistic
 and sustainable development.

Afghanistan: Taliban Takeover Worsens Rights Crisis

By 

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan accelerated the country’s human rights crisis and humanitarian catastrophe, Human Rights Watch said Thursday in its World Report 2022.

After the Taliban took control of the country on August 15, 2021, they rolled back women’s rights advances and media freedom – the foremost achievements of the post-2001 reconstruction effort. Many secondary schools for girls remained closed by the end of the year, and women were largely prohibited from working in jobs outside of teaching and health care.

“Afghans are caught between Taliban oppression and the spectre of starvation,” said Patricia Gossman, associate Asia director at Human Rights Watch. “Governments involved in Afghanistan over the past two decades should provide humanitarian aid and fund basic services, including health and education, while using their leverage to press for an end to Taliban rights violations.”

In the 752-page World Report 2022, its 32nd edition, Human Rights Watch reviews human rights practices in nearly 100 countries. Executive Director Kenneth Roth challenges the conventional wisdom that autocracy is ascendent. In country after country, large numbers of people have recently taken to the streets, even at the risk of being arrested or shot, showing that the appeal of democracy remains strong. Meanwhile, autocrats are finding it more difficult to manipulate elections in their favor. Still, he says, democratic leaders must do a better job of meeting national and global challenges and of making sure that democracy delivers on its promised dividends.

The chaotic evacuation of thousands of Afghans left behind many who remained at risk of Taliban retaliation. Taliban forces summarily executed many former members of the Afghan government’s security forces. A freeze on Afghanistan’s currency reserves and the loss of foreign aid accelerated an economic collapse, leaving millions of Afghans at risk of famine. The collapse of the country’s health services meant that many Afghans faced a loss of most physical and mental health care.

In the weeks after the Taliban takeover, the new government announced a steady stream of policies and regulations that rolled back women’s rights. Taliban authorities also imposed wide-ranging restrictions on the Afghan media, and along with the flight of many journalists abroad,  nearly 70 percent of Afghan media outlets closed. Both the Taliban and the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP), the Afghan branch of the Islamic State (ISIS), carried out targeted killings of civilians including government employees, journalists, and religious leaders.

The number of civilians killed and injured in the conflict surged in the first six months of 2021 from attacks by both Taliban and Afghan government security forces, the latter primarily from  airstrikes. The ISKP carried out numerous attacks on civilian facilities, including schools and mosques, killing hundreds, most of them members of Afghanistan’s Hazara community. ISKP attacks continued after the Taliban takeover.

The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court sought authorization to resume his investigation but stated he would focus on alleged crimes by the Taliban and ISKP, and deprioritize those committed by the US military and CIA and former Afghan government security forces. 


Women in Afghanistan market. Photo by Staff Sgt. Russell Lee Klika, US Army National Guard, Wikimedia Commons.

The geopolitics of aiding the Taliban’s Afghanistan

CHAYANIKA SAXENA ROSHNI KAPUR

Humanitarian assistance must be disentangled from concepts of political legitimacy in the country’s unfolding crisis.


Almost 97 per cent of Afghans will live below the poverty line by the end of 2022. Kabul, Afghanistan, 8 January 2022
(Bilal Guler/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Published 13 Jan 2022

The world has turned a blind eye to the sheer human misery surrounding Afghanistan ever since the Taliban returned to power in August 2021. While several regional countries and institutions have held conferences to discuss ways to avert the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, these talks are yet to transform into pliable actions that can help Afghans deal with their deteriorating living conditions. According to the International Rescue Committee (IRC), there has been an increase of 73 per cent in internal displacement since June 2021. Currently, more than 3.5 million Afghans find themselves displaced from their home regions due to insecurity, war and conflict, while approximately 1.2 million have been pushed out of their locales owing to natural disasters including floods, earthquakes and droughts.

G20 leaders, who came to a consensus at the 2021 summit to involve the Taliban in distributing aid to avert a humanitarian crisis, are themselves reluctant to deal with the new regime that comprises proscribed entities and individuals.

As the financial crisis deepens, more than 23 million people are facing severe hunger, with 8 in 10 eating less or borrowing food.

Compounding the challenge, the Afghan economy, which relies heavily on international aid, is in tatters due to sanctions and embargoes. The suspension of financial assistance by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, combined with an American freeze on the disbursal of US$9.5 billion of reserves to the Afghan Central Bank, is expected to take a massive toll on the financial health of Afghanistan. For a country that previously met 80 per cent of its budgetary requirements via international aid, the sudden and prolonged cessation of financial assistance will only make the economic situation, and with it the looming humanitarian crises, even worse.

Afghanistan’s economy of US$20 billion is expected to shrink by US$4 billion or more if the international restrictions persist. This, combined with the limited availability of cash, has already compelled many Afghans to sell their household goods and engage in bartering to survive. As the financial crisis deepens, more than 23 million people are facing severe hunger, with 8 in 10 eating less or borrowing food. Apart from the social consequences of mass starvation, human exploitation and drug abuse that are compounding because of economic desperation, almost 97 per cent of Afghanistan’s total population will be pushed below the poverty line – earning less than US$1.90 per day – by the end of 2022 if international relief does not pour in immediately.

The Covid-19 pandemic has only made matters worse. Medical facilities in Afghanistan are on the brink of collapse in the absence of international aid that had hitherto covered 90 per cent of their operational costs. With more than 10,000 Covid cases reported in the last five months (numbers that are likely vastly underestimated), the onset of the Omicron wave will put more pressure on a healthcare system that is currently functioning without adequate medical supplies, including oxygen, and staff that has not been paid for months. In fact, such is the state of the medical infrastructure in Afghanistan that roughly half of 38 Covid-dedicated hospitals have been forced to shut across the country.
Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid addresses the first press conference in Kabul on 17 August 2021 following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan
 (Hoshang Hashimi/AFP via Getty Images)

The Taliban is making concerted efforts to gain acceptance as a legitimate and responsible actor as the group transitions from an insurgency to de-facto government. Following the takeover of Kabul in a fast military campaign, the group worked with foreign governments on the safe evacuation of their citizens. The Taliban has been appealing to international airlines to resume flights to Kabul in efforts to bring commercial traffic and open up the country.

The Taliban is also convening regular meetings with international organisations to provide official recognition and allow humanitarian aid to flow. The group requested that their desired envoy Suhail Shaheen be allowed to represent Afghanistan at the annual UN General Assembly meeting in September 2021. This request, however, was denied.

Despite the Taliban’s history of disrupting polio vaccination efforts, the group gave permission to health officials to resume door-to-door polio vaccination in October 2021. The group also agreed to restart vaccination campaigns against Covid-19 and measles to demonstrate that it is taking the threat of infectious diseases seriously.

Despite its efforts to project a different image, the Taliban is unlikely to gain international recognition until the group can convince other nations it has truly changed character.

The Taliban is also playing the ISKP (Islamic State – Khorasan Province) card to exploit the security concerns of neighbouring countries. The Doha agreement was signed on the basis that the Taliban would not allow Afghan soil to be used as a launchpad for terrorist activities against the United States. Other countries may sign similar accords with the Taliban seeking similar security assurances – whether that be China or India, the latter having held its first formal diplomatic engagement with the group in August 2021, a departure from its previous approach when the Taliban was in power in the 1990s.

Despite its efforts to project a different image, the Taliban is unlikely to gain international recognition until the group can convince other nations it has truly changed character. The renewed exclusion of women from public life, including barring studying or teaching in secondary schools and banning women from taking solo and long-distance road trips without a male relative, has only reinforced the Taliban’s image as an anachronistic and boorish entity. Yet it is difficult to verify human rights abuses committed by the group, in part due to the suspension of mobile and internet services – and also as a consequence of the suspension of some international support.

Although no country has formally recognised the de-facto government run by the Taliban, it will be useful to use recognition as leverage to make the group more amenable to granting greater political, social and cultural freedom to the citizens of Afghanistan. In doing so, the regional and global powers might also be able to provide the desired humanitarian assistance to the country without running the risk of condoning Taliban’s puritanical ways.
RED FASCISM
Hong Kong police switch to goose-stepping 'to show patriotism'


Hong Kong police have used goose-stepping in ceremonies and parades, but it will become part of officers' daily routines from July 1 (AFP/Peter PARKS)

Thu, January 13, 2022, 9:49 PM·1 min read

Hong Kong's entire police force will switch from colonial-era British marching drills to the goose-stepping style seen on the Chinese mainland, the city's force said Friday, citing the need to show officers' "patriotism".

The stiff-legged marching technique was first publicly demonstrated by Hong Kong officers on April 15 during National Security Education Day -- designated to mark a Beijing-imposed law that has empowered a crackdown on dissent.

The force has "actively planned for the full rollout of Chinese-style foot drills in order to show patriotism and foster love for our motherland and Hong Kong", police told AFP in a statement Friday.

Staff from China's People's Liberation Army barracks in Hong Kong have been teaching the city's police officers the technique since February 2021.

Police have used goose-stepping in ceremonies and parades, but it will become part of officers' daily routines from July 1 -- the same day Hong Kong marks 25 years since the former British colony was handed back to China.

The Hong Kong Police College will also host workshops for frontline officers on goose-stepping and flag-raising in the second quarter of this year, according to the statement.

On Thursday, Hong Kong's firefighters announced in an annual report they will make a similar switch before the end of the month.

Officers from Hong Kong's customs and excise, immigration and correctional services departments have also demonstrated goose-stepping as part of ceremonies.

The goose-stepping marching style, where uniformed officers kick straight-legged in a robotic manner, was first used by Prussian soldiers and has become a hallmark of authoritarian regimes including Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China.

hol/dhc/jta/dva


SEE

Legitimacy and Nationalism: China’s Motivations and the Dangers of Assumptions

Lewis Eves

Jan 13 2022 

LONG READ

There is increasing anxiety in the West about China’s growing assertiveness on the international stage. This anxiety is evident in the policies of western states. The USA has described China as ‘a sustained challenge’ to the international system (The White House, 2021 p.8). Meanwhile, the UK is investing in its ‘China-facing capabilities’ and Australia is purchasing nuclear submarines to hedge against China’s presence in the South China Sea (HM Government, 2021 p.22; Masterson, 2021). Undoubtedly, China’s rise poses a challenge to the status quo. If for no other reason than that it represents an alternative to the western-centric international system (Turin, 2010). Nevertheless, representing an alternative to the status quo does not mean that Chinese foreign policy is inherently motivated by challenging the West.

Such anxious perspectives of Chinese foreign policy are rooted in realism, a theory of international relations which assumes actors to be inherently self-interested and motivated by the egoistic pursuit of power (Waltz 2001; Mearshimer 2003). According to this ontology, the potential power to be gained by acting assertively is enough to account for China’s foreign policy motivations. Social constructivism, on the other hand, posits that an actor’s motivations are rooted in the social interactions between groups within the state (Leira, 2019). Using this lens, China’s foreign policy motivations must be understood in relation to its domestic politics. Adopting a socially constructivist ontology, this article argues that Chinese foreign policy is motivated, at least in part, by domestic nationalist pressures and that, by way of the security paradox, western policies are fuelling Chinese assertiveness.

This article proceeds as follows. Firstly, by presenting the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) twin-pillar model of legitimacy and its increased reliance on nationalism to maintain its regime’s legitimacy. It then outlines China’s nationalist movement and its foreign policy agenda, using the 2010 Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute to show how nationalist pressure affects the CCP’s foreign policy decision-making. Consideration is then given to the CCP’s social controls, showing that the CCP is unable to mitigate nationalist pressure via its propaganda infrastructure. The final section then presents the security paradox concept and how the West’s realist assumptions and anxious policies are fuelling Chinese assertiveness.

Pillars of Legitimacy

After Mao’s death, the CCP could no longer rely upon a cult of personality to provide popular support for its regime (Coble, 2007). Rather, the CCP has since premised its regime legitimacy ‘upon the twin pillars of nationalism and economic prosperity (Reilly, 2004 p.283). This model of legitimacy predicates the CCP’s regime security upon its ability to improve the economic conditions of the Chinese people and its ability to protect and pursue China’s national interests.

Certainly, the CCP has closely associated itself with China’s economic success and national interests. The CCP-owned People’s Daily, for example, regularly praises the CCP for fostering China’s ‘thriving and diverse economy’ (Cai, 2021). It goes as far as to praise specific CCP economic policies such as the 13th Five Year Plan, which is credited with growing China’s digital economy by 16.6% from 2016-20 (People’s Daily Online, 2021a). Also published were calls to support the CCP in protecting national interests from foreign intervention. For example, by purchasing Xinjiang Cotton against the backdrop of international condemnation of China’s treatment of Xinjiang’s Uighur population (People’s Daily Online, 2021b).

Notably, Chinese president Xi Jinping invoked both pillars when speaking at the CCP’s 100th-anniversary celebrations. Stating that ‘only socialism with Chinese characteristics can develop China’ (BBC News, 2021) In this statement, the CCP and its specific brand of socialist ideology are presented as essential to China’s economic development. Meanwhile, Xi also made an overtly nationalistic pledge that the CCP will:

never allow anyone to bully, oppress or subjugate China. Anyone who tries to do that will have their heads bashed bloody against the Great Wall of Steel forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese people (Xi via BBC News, 2021).

Evidently, the CCP is eager to associate itself with economic development and protecting the Chinese nation. Doing so in accordance with the twin pillar model to maintain its regime legitimacy.

However, an emerging issue with the twin pillar model is that the CCP increasingly struggles to ensure economic prosperity. Central to the economic pillar are Deng Xiaoping’s liberal economic reforms. Since their introduction in the early 1980s, per capita income has increased by 2500% and over 800 million Chinese have been saved from poverty, conferring popular support for the CCP’s economic stewardship (Denmark, 2018). Yet, structural economic challenges including a declining labour force, low per-capita productivity, and an over-reliance on manufacturing result in barriers to sustained growth (World Bank, n.d.). Consequentially, 373 million Chinese continue living in some degree of relative poverty (Ibid.).

As economic prosperity becomes harder to guarantee, the integrity of the economic pillar is weakened. This is an issue of which the CCP is aware. China’s growth rate in 2018 was 6.6% (Kuo, 2019), significantly below both China’s highs of over 10% growth in the 2000s, and the necessary rate needed to maintain high levels of employment (World Bank, n.d.). This led to concerns among CCP officials that rising unemployment might lead to social unrest (Kuo, 2019). This included Premier Li Keqiang, who publicly acknowledged ‘public dissatisfaction’ over China’s stagnating economic performance (Bradsher and Buckley, 2019).

Given the economic pillar’s weakness, the CCP must rely more upon the nationalist pillar to carry the burden of its regime legitimacy. Hence, the CCP has been less likely to constrain popular expressions of nationalist in recent years (Abbott, 2016). In 2005, tens-of-thousands of Chinese nationalists protested Japanese textbooks for their omission of atrocities committed against China during the Second Sino-Japanese War (Watts, 2005). Protesters attacked Japanese businesses and property, including Japan’s embassies and consulates (Yardley, 2005). Some local CCP branches and low-level officials encouraged the demonstrations, but the central CCP discouraged the nationalist demonstrations (Watts, 2005). These efforts included deploying riot police, shutting down public transport and the Minister of Public Security declaring the protests illegal and citing concern for Sino-Japanese relations as the reason for this crackdown (Yardley, 2005).

In stark contrast, the CCP did relatively little to stop anti-Japanese protests in 2012. This time, nationalists in over 180 Chinese cities gathered in the tens-of-thousands to protest Japan’s nationalisation of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands (Gries et al., 2016), an island chain in the East China Sea claimed by China but administered by Japan. Notably, senior CCP officials failed to comment on the protests while the dispute was ongoing (Buckley, 2012). Tensions in Sino-Japanese relations were higher in 2012 compared to 2005 (Gries et al., 2016), meaning it is challenging to isolate China’s economic performance as a variable accounting for the difference in the CCP’s response. However, it is notable that China’s economic growth rate slowed by roughly one-third from 11.39% in 2005 to 7.86% in 2012 (World Bank, n.d.). Accordingly, as per the twin-pillar model, the CCP’s reluctance to constrain the nationalistic anti-Japanese protests was to be expected, any anti-protest measures risking the nationalist credentials upon which the CCP increasingly relied as the economic pillar faltered.

Chinese Nationalism and the CCP’s Foreign Policy

The CCP’s reliance on the nationalist pillar confers considerable influence upon China’s nationalist movement. This in turn requires the CCP to acquiesce to the nationalist agenda in its foreign policy to maintain its legitimating nationalist credentials. Chinese nationalism is not a unified movement but consists of groups and organisations sharing a common Chinese nationalism sensitive to what it considers affronts to the Chinese nation and vocal in its activism against said affronts (Reilly, 2004; Coble, 2007; Johnston, 2017). Some of these groups and organisations have formal links with the CCP, for example, the Communist Youth League and nationalists working in local CCP branches (Watts, 2005; Kecheng, 2020). Others operate more independently of the CCP, such as nationalists among the Chinese diaspora and most of China’s online activist groups (Modongal, 2016; Fang and Repnikova, 2018).

These groups subscribe to a broad nationalist agenda and expect the CCP to use China’s growing economic and military strength to pursue China’s interests (Abbott, 2016). Specifically, they demand justice for historical repression, recognition of China commensurate with its newfound strength, that the CCP mobilise against threats to Chinese sovereignty, and that China’s sphere of influence be respected (Boylan et al., 2020). This agenda was evident in the recent US-China trade war. Nationalists called for sanctions in response to what they perceived as a US attempt to reject China’s status as a leading global economy, comparing US tariffs to the repressive economic restrictions imposed upon China by western imperialists in the 1800s (Ibid.).

Understanding the nationalist agenda and the CCP’s reliance on the nationalist pillar for regime legitimacy is significant. This is because the CCP must adhere to the nationalist agenda in its foreign policy to live up to its nationalist credentials (Coble, 2007). This is apparent in how, against the backdrop of China’s slowing economy, nationalist pressure has coincided with a hard-line stance from the CCP in China’s foreign relations. An example of this can be found as early as the 2010 Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute (also known as the Trawler Incident). This dispute began after a Chinese fishing trawler collided with two Japanese coastguard vessels in the territorial waters of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, after which Japan arrested the trawler’s crew. Initially the CCP responded relatively benignly, limited to Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Jiang Yu issuing a statement requesting that Japan ‘refrain from so-called law-enforcement activities in the East China Sea’ (Johnson 2010).

However, nationalistic anti-Japanese protests began in the days following the incident. The protesters called upon the CCP to take further action against Japan. One protester outside the Japanese embassy explained: ‘I want our government to be stronger. They shouldn’t let the Japanese bully us on our own soil!’ (Lim, 2010). Meanwhile, a protester in Shanghai summarised the protests as follows: ‘We came here to appeal for fairness and for the right to ask for our captain back. We regret the government’s weakness in diplomacy’ (Al Jazeera, 2010a).

Evidently, the China nationalist movement, in response to a perceived affront in the form of the trawler incident, sought to pressure the CCP into resolving the dispute in accordance with the nationalist agenda. The day after the protests started, and also only a day after their initial statement, Spokeswoman Jiang announced naval deployments to the East China Sea. This demarcated the first instance of regular Chinese patrols in the region since the normalisation of Sino-Japanese relations in the 1970s (Green et al., 2017). In the following weeks, as the nationalistic anti-Japanese protests continued, China also suspended diplomatic contacts with Japan and ceased rare earth exports essential to Japanese manufacturing (Hafeez, 2015). Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao also threatened Japan with retaliation while in New York for a UN conference (Al Jazeera, 2010b).

The fact that the CCP pivoted from a diplomatic response to naval deployments within one day, and that this pivot coincided with nationalist pressure upon the CCP, shows nationalism’s affect upon Chinese foreign policy in action. The rapid change in response to Japan resulting from the CCP wanting to uphold its nationalist credentials regardless of the implications for Sino-Japanese relations.

Of course, it is plausible that the CCP simply desired to take a strong stance against Japan and that anti-Japanese sentiment merely offered the pretext for the CCP to flex its newfound military strength. Taffer (2020), for example, presents the trawler incident as an attempt by the CCP to test the USA’s commitment to its Japanese ally. However, the CCP made efforts to repair Sino-Japanese relations after the flashpoint of the dispute passed. These included the resumption of rare earth exports and mild discouragement of anti-Japanese protests once nationalist pressure subsided in the following months (Green et al., 2017). This indicates that the CCP did not want to damage Sino-Japanese relations, but rather that nationalist pressure forced the CCP to act in accordance with the nationalist agenda. Thereby safeguarding its nationalist credentials as per its increasing reliance upon the nationalist pillar to secure its regime legitimacy.

The Limits of the CCP’s Control

Reilly (2011) argues that the CCP practices effective social control over its nationalist movement by leveraging China’s propaganda infrastructure to direct and disperse nationalist sentiment as needed. If true, this would mean that the CCP faces no pressure to adhere to the nationalist agenda. It could merely adapt its propaganda messaging to counter nationalist pressure without appeasing the nationalist agenda in its foreign policy decision-making.

Yet, the CCP has failed to restrict nationalist activism against foreign actors, illustrating the limits of the CCP’s control over China’s nationalist movement. For example, in 2020, against the backdrop of international condemnation of events in Hong Kong, the CCP struggled to crackdown on a nationalist anti-foreign smear campaign on social media (Lo, 2020). Notably, the Communist Youth League, a nationalistic youth movement affiliated with the CCP, provocatively endorsed a ‘social media crusade’ against foreign governments sympathetic towards Hong Kong (Kecheng, 2020). This shows that the CCP struggles to exert social control over nationalist organisations it has formal links with, let alone the broader Chinese nationalist movement.

The limitations of the CCP’s crackdown on the nationalist social media campaign, and thus limitations of the CCP’s social controls over China’s nationalist movement, were most prominent in May 2020. Chinese nationalist hacktivists hijacked the Twitter account of the Chinese embassy in Paris, posting a picture depicting the USA as the personification of death, trailing blood along a corridor and knocking at Hong Kong’s door with the caption ‘who’s next?’ (Lo, 2020). This is significant for two reasons. Firstly, the response from the Chinese embassy was to rapidly delete the post and issued formal apologies to France and the USA (Keyser, 2020). These actions are inconsistent with a CCP truly motivated to assert China’s national interests to the detriment of its foreign relations, but consistent with a CCP struggling to control China’s nationalist movement.

Secondly, and most importantly, this example shows Chinese nationalists to be hijacking the CCP’s propaganda infrastructure to pursue their foreign policy agenda. This points to a reality in which, rather than the CCP having social control of China’s nationalist movement through its propaganda infrastructure, Chinese nationalists find ways to escape the CCP’s social controls. It also shows that they are willing to respond independently of the CCP to perceived affronts to the Chinese nation if they feel the CCP fails to do so adequately.

Given the limitations of the CCP’s social controls, the CCP cannot merely adapt its propaganda messaging to offset nationalist pressure. Rather, it must contend with the dilemma of either acquiescing to the nationalist agenda, even to the detriment of China’s foreign relations, or risking its nationalist credentials and thus regime legitimacy. This demonstrates that domestic nationalist pressures are a significant factor in China’s foreign policy decision-making despite the CCP’s propaganda infrastructure.

Why Does it Matter?

Understanding the nationalist pressures on the CCP’s foreign policy decision-making is important for two reasons. Firstly, from an academic standpoint, it serves as a case study in working past initial assumptions about an actor’s motivations. Whereas western policymakers anxiously assume China’s motivations in accordance with realism, this article has presented an alternative explanation. By looking at an actor’s foreign policy as a product of its domestic politics, it is possible to provide a more meaningful explanation of their foreign policy motivations. In this case, that China is motivated, at least in part, by the CCP’s desire to uphold its legitimating nationalist credentials in the face of pressure to adhere to the foreign policy agenda of its nationalist movement.

Secondly, in terms of the practise of international relations, it shows how the realist assumptions of western policymakers and their respective China policies risk becoming self-fulfilling prophecies. This is in accordance with the security paradox concept. Also known as the security dilemma, the security paradox refers to a cycle in which two sides, through their efforts to mitigate their own uncertainty and insecurity, trigger uncertainty and insecurity in the other (Booth and Wheeler, 2007). As this cycle progresses tensions may escalate to the point that conflict emerges despite, paradoxically, neither side necessarily holding any ill-will towards the other at the start of the paradox (Ibid.). An example of a security paradox is the Anglo-German naval arms race during the prelude to World War I. In this, Germany’s maritime ambitions caused Britain to expand its navy, in turn lea ding Germany to accelerate its naval programme and thus Britain to develop larger battleships, and so on (Maurer, 1997).

A similar mechanic can be observed today regarding the West and its policies towards China. Western states, anxious about China’s rise and growing assertiveness, are enacting policies in preparation of a Chinese challenge to the status quo. Purchasing nuclear submarines and investing in ‘China-facing capabilities’. While understandable given their anxiety and realist assumptions, these policies risk provoking Chinese nationalists. Thereby generating pressure on the CCP to enact the assertive foreign policy the West wants to avoid. Likely leading to further western policies that risk being interpreted as an affront by Chinese nationalists. If unchecked, this could lead to hostility despite both the West and the CCP merely attempting to mitigate their own insecurities.

That western policies are provoking Chinese nationalists is clear to see. Minister Yang Xiaoguang of the Chinese embassy in London has explained that the Chinese people have expressed ‘antipathy and opposition’ to the UK’s plans to China policy (Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, 2021). This indicates domestic nationalist pressure on the CCP to respond to the UK’s policy. Similarly, in response to American posturing and Australia’s acquisition of nuclear submarines, Chinese nationalists briefly began calls for the CCP to declare war on AUKUS (Davidson and Blair, 2021). These examples both highlight how, in response to western policy, China’s nationalist movement is pressuring the CCP to adhere to its foreign policy agenda. In doing so, making the case that the West is, by way of its China policies, creating the assertive China that fuels their own anxieties.

Conclusion

Evidently, China’s foreign policy motivations are influenced by domestic nationalist pressures and western policy. This is apparent considering the twin-pillar model. As economic prosperity has become harder for the CCP to guarantee, it has had to increasingly rely upon nationalism for legitimacy. This confers considerable influence upon China’s nationalist movement. China’s nationalist movement subscribes to a broad nationalist agenda, which it wants the CCP to adhere to in its foreign policy decision-making. This has affected China’s foreign policy in practise, apparent as early as 2010 when the CCP quickly pivoted to align more closely to the nationalist agenda during the 2010 Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute. Some have argued that the CCP’s control over China propaganda infrastructure confers effective control over China’s nationalist movement. However, as discussed, the CCP’s social controls over Chinese nationalists are in fact limited. With nationalists even bypassing said propaganda infrastructure and directly pursuing their foreign policy agenda when they consider the CCP to failed to rectify affronts to the Chinese nation.

Understanding the domestic pressures motivating Chinese foreign policy showcases the importance of moving beyond realist assumptions and highlights how we can achieve a fuller understanding by considering the domestic when we study the international. It also shows that western foreign policies are, by way of the security paradox, generating the assertive China that western policy was intended to mitigate. As the West provokes Chinese nationalists, they are pressuring the CCP to enact more assertive foreign policies, in turn causing further anxiety in the West. Further study into how China’s domestic politics informs its foreign policy could offer additional insights motivations. It could also inform western policies towards China. Lessening the risk of provoking Chinese nationalists and thus better mitigating western anxieties.

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Further Reading on E-International Relations