Ecuador Roads Blockaded On Fourth Day Of Fuel Price Protests

By AFP News
06/16/22 

Indigenous Ecuadorans used burning tires, tree trunks and stones Thursday to block access to the capital, Quito, on the fourth day of protests against high fuel prices and living costs.

Indigenous people, who make up over a million of Ecuador's 17.7 million inhabitants, embarked on an open-ended anti-government protest Monday that has since been joined by students and other discontented groups.

"We came to claim our rights because we are paid low prices for the products we produce," Nelson Jami, a farmer from the southern Cotopaxi province, told AFP at a blockade south of Quito.

Protests and roadblocks were registered Thursday in 15 of Ecuador's 24 provinces, authorities said, with hundreds of demonstrators gathered in Quito alone.

Indigenous people hold an Ecuadorian flag in Quito's Cutuglagua neighbourhood on June 16, 2022 Photo: AFP / Cristina Vega RHOR

Firefighters said a truck carrying demonstrators overturned in Quito Thursday, injuring 12 people.



Oil producer Ecuador has been hit by rising inflation, unemployment and poverty exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic.

Fuel prices have risen sharply since 2020, almost doubling for diesel from $1 to $1.90 per gallon (3.8 liters) and rising from $1.75 to $2.55 for petrol.

The powerful Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (Conaie), which called the protests, wants the price reduced to $1.50 for diesel and $2.10 for petrol.

Conaie is credited with helping topple three Ecuadoran presidents between 1997 and 2005.

Indigenous women take part in a road blockade during demonstrations against the Ecuadorean government in Quito's Cutuglagua neighbourhood on June 16, 2022 

Photo: AFP / Cristina Vega RHOR

President Guillermo Lasso said Wednesday the government's door was open to dialogue, "but we will not give in to violent groups that seek to impose their rules."

Conaie leader Leonidas Iza, for his part, said the government was not making any concessions required for negotiations to begin.

Iza was arrested Tuesday on the second day of the mass protest on suspicion of "sabotage," according to the government, prompting furious supporters to descend on the prosecutor's office to demand he be freed.

He was released the following day on a judge's orders pending trial on charges of "paralyzing public transport services."

Iza risks up to three years in prison.

Conaie has reported 14 people injured since the protests began Monday, while police reported 29 arrests, eight agents injured and 11 others briefly held by demonstrators.

Ecuador's Production Minister Julio Prado said losses as a result of the protests amounted to some $20 million by Thursday.

In 2019, Conaie-led protests resulted in 11 deaths and forced then-president Lenin Moreno to abandon plans to eliminate fuel subsidies.

Shaky oasis for some polar bears found, but not for species


SETH BORENSTEIN
Thu, June 16, 2022
 

An adult female polar bear, left, and two 1-year-old cubs walk over snow-covered freshwater glacier ice in Southeast Greenland in March 2015. With limited sea ice, these Southeast Greenland polar bears use freshwater icebergs spawned from the shrinking Greenland ice sheet as makeshift hunting grounds, according to a study in journal Science released Thursday, June 16. (Kristin Laidre via AP)


With the polar bear species in a fight for survival because of disappearing Arctic sea ice, a new distinct group of Greenland bears seem to have stumbled on an icy oasis that might allow a small remote population to “hang on.”

But it’s far from “a life raft” for the endangered species that has long been a symbol of climate change, scientists said.

A team of scientists tracked a group of a few hundred polar bears in Southeast Greenland that they show are genetically distinct and geographically separate from others, something not considered before. But what’s really distinct is that these bears manage to survive despite only having 100 days a year when there’s sea ice to hunt seals from. Elsewhere in the world, polar bears need at least 180 days, usually more, of sea ice for them to use as their hunting base. When there’s no sea ice bears often don’t eat for months.

With limited sea ice, which is frozen ocean water, these Southeast Greenland polar bears use freshwater icebergs spawned from the shrinking Greenland ice sheet as makeshift hunting grounds, according to a study in Thursday’s journal Science. However, scientists aren't sure if they are thriving because they are smaller and have fewer cubs than other polar bear populations.

“These polar bears are adapted to living in an environment that looks like the future,” said study lead author Kristin Laidre, a polar bear biologist at the University of Washington, who over nine years tracked, collared and tested the all-white bears usually from a helicopter hovering the white snow and ice backdrop. “But most bears in the Arctic don’t have glacial ice. They don’t have access to this. So it can’t be taken out of context like somehow this is like a life raft for polar bears around the Arctic. It’s not. Greenland is unique.”

“We project large declines of polar bears across the Arctic and this study does not change that very important message," Laidre said. "What this study does is show that we find this isolated group living in this unique place... We’re looking at where in the Arctic polar bears can as a species hang on, where they might persist.”

The freshwater ice will keep coming off the ice sheet for centuries giving limited hope that this is “a place that polar bears might continue to survive’’ but it’s separate from an overall trend of sea ice loss in the summer because of emissions of heat-trapping gases from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas, said National Snow and Ice Data Center deputy lead scientist Twila Moon, a study co-author.

These bears hunt on the fresh glacial ice that has more peaks and valleys than the flatter sea ice, often in house- or car-sized bergs, called bergy bits, Moon said.

This population of polar bears are on the southeast tip of the giant island, where there are no towns. For years scientists figured these bears were part of the same population in Northeast Greenland, just roaming up and down the massive coast. But they don’t, Laidre said. An unusual set up of winds, currents and geographical features around 64 degrees North make it next to impossible for bears to move north of that point, the current sends them south fast, she said.

While most bears travel 25 miles (40 kilometers) over four days, the Southeast Greenland bears go about 6 miles (10 kilometers) in the same time, the study said.

“They just stay in the same place for years and years," Laidre said.

Genetic testing Laidre and colleagues did showed they are more different from the neighboring populations than any other pair of polar bear populations on Earth, said study co-author Beth Shapiro, a University of California Santa Cruz evolutionary geneticist.

Occasionally, a bear from elsewhere breeds with the southeast bear, but Shapiro said it’s infrequent and only one-way with no bear heading north and breeding with that population.

In general these bears are thinner than other Arctic bears, with females weighing about 400 pounds (185 kilograms), compared to 440 to 560 pounds (199 to 255 kilograms) elsewhere in the North American Arctic, Laidre said. And they also tend to have fewer cubs, which could be because they are so isolated and don’t get as many mating opportunities, she said.

Because this group hadn’t been studied before, Laidre said it is impossible to tell if the Southeast Greenland polar bear population has just adapted to be smaller and have fewer cubs or whether these are indicators of a stressed population and not a good sign for survival. Shapiro and others don't think it looks good.

“They’re not reproducing as much as other individuals,” Shapiro said. “They’re not as healthy as other individuals who are in a better habitat. So it’s kind of an oasis maybe, but it’s not a happy oasis. It’s a I’m-struggling-to-get-by-but-just-making-it kind of oasis.”

Long-time polar bear scientist Steve Amstrup of Polar Bear International, who wasn’t part of the study, said he worries that people will wrongly take this research to mean polar bears can adapt to climate change, when it’s about one small group that is prolonging their ability to persist, adding that this “does not offer salvation.” While this group is distinct he said he fears that calling attention to it “may in fact diminish the natural isolation they currently enjoy.”

This shows “that we can still really have surprises,” Moon said. “And I’m constantly reminded that there’s not ever a point where we throw in the towel.”

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Follow AP’s climate coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate

___

Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears

___

Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Isolated Greenland polar bear population adapts to climate change

Thu, June 16, 2022
By Will Dunham

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - An isolated population of polar bears in Greenland has made a clever adaptation to the decline in the sea ice they depend upon as a platform for hunting seals, offering a ray of hope for this species in at least some locales in the warming Arctic.

This population of several hundred bears, inhabiting part of Greenland's southeast coast on the Denmark Strait, has survived with only abbreviated access to ice formed from frozen seawater by hunting instead from chunks of freshwater ice breaking off from the huge Greenland Ice Sheet, researchers said on Thursday.

"They survive in fjords that are sea-ice free more than eight months of the year because they have access to glacier - freshwater - ice on which they can hunt. This habitat, meaning glacier ice, is uncommon in most of the Arctic," said University of Washington polar scientist Kristin Laidre, lead author of the study published in the journal Science.

They were found to be the world's most genetically isolated polar bears, distinct from the species' 19 other known populations. They have been almost entirely cut off from other polar bears for at least several hundred years, with no evidence of any leaving, though some evidence of an occasional arrival from elsewhere.

These bears are "living at the edge of what we believe to be physiologically possible," said evolutionary molecular biologist and study co-author Beth Shapiro of the University of California, Santa Cruz and the Howard Hughes Medical Institute.

"These bears are not thriving. They reproduce more slowly, they're smaller in size. But, importantly, they are surviving. It's hard to know yet whether these differences are driven by genetic adaptations or simply by a different response of polar bears to a very different climate and habitat," Shapiro added.

Polar bears, numbering roughly 26,000 in all, are particularly imperiled by climate change as rising temperatures reshape the Arctic landscape and deprive them of their customary sea-ice platform for hunting their main prey, ringed seals and bearded seals.

"Loss of Arctic sea ice is still the primary threat to all polar bears. This study does not change that," Laidre said.

The southeast Greenland population is geographically hemmed in, with jagged mountain peaks and the Greenland Ice Sheet on one side and the open ocean on the other. In springtime, the bears roam sea ice and glaciers, with icebergs frozen solid into the sea ice. In summertime, there is open water with floating pieces of glacial ice at the fronts of glaciers, from which the bears hunt. This type of habitat is found only in parts of Greenland and Svalbard, an Arctic Ocean archipelago.

"This use of glacier ice has not been documented before and represents a unique behavior," said John Whiteman, chief research scientist for the conservation group Polar Bears International and a biology professor at Old Dominion University in Virginia, who was not involved in the study.

"This study should also prompt a search for similar habitats across the current polar bear range. However, glacial ice is a minor component of the marine ice cap in the Arctic, in comparison to ice formed from freezing seawater," Whiteman said.

The researchers gathered genetic, movement and population data including satellite tracking of some bears and observing them from a helicopter.

"They simply look like a small yellow dot on the white ice, or you follow their tracks in the snow to find them," Laidre said.

Shapiro said the findings may provide a glimpse of how polar bears survived previous warm periods over the roughly 500,000 years since they split evolutionarily from brown bears.

"Polar bears are in trouble," Shapiro added. "It is clear that if we can't slow the rate of global warming that polar bears are on a trajectory to become extinct. The more we can learn about this remarkable species, the better able we will be to help them to survive the next 50 to 100 years."

(Reporting by Will Dunham, Editing by Rosalba O'Brien)

Bolsonaro blamed as UN, activists denounce Amazon murders

Joao Laet with Jordi Miro in Brasilia
Thu, June 16, 2022, 


The United Nations as well as environmental and rights groups expressed outrage Thursday at the murder of British journalist Dom Phillips and Indigenous expert Bruno Pereira, which they linked to President Jair Bolsonaro's willingness to allow commercial exploitation of the Brazilian Amazon.

Veteran correspondent Phillips, 57, and Pereira, 41, went missing on June 5 in a remote part of the rainforest rife with illegal mining, fishing and logging, as well as drug trafficking.

Ten days later, on Wednesday, a suspect named Amarildo da Costa de Oliveira took police to a place where he said he had buried bodies near the city of Atalaia do Norte, where the pair had been headed.


Human remains unearthed from the site arrived in Brasilia on Thursday evening for identification by experts, with members of the federal police seen carrying two brown coffins through a hangar. Official results are expected next week, according to local media.

Federal police said Thursday that traces of blood found in Oliveira's boat belonged to a man, but not Phillips. Further analysis will be necessary to determine if it was that of Pereira.

There is still much to clarify in the case, including a motive and the circumstances surrounding the killings, apparently carried out by firearm.

Late Wednesday, the federal police chief of Brazil's northern Amazonas state said there was "a 99 percent probability" the unearthed remains corresponded to the missing men.

The UN human rights office said Thursday it was "deeply saddened by the information about the murder" of the two men.

"This brutal act of violence is appalling and we call on state authorities to ensure that investigations are impartial, transparent and thorough, and that redress is provided to the families of the victims," spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani said in Geneva.

Phillips, a longtime contributor to The Guardian and other leading international newspapers, was working on a book on sustainable development in the Amazon with Pereira as his guide, when they went missing.

Pereira, an expert at Brazil's indigenous affairs agency FUNAI, had received multiple threats from loggers and miners with their eye on isolated Indigenous land.

- 'Heartbroken' -

Phillips' family said in a statement they were "heartbroken" by the discovery of two bodies Wednesday, which they took as confirmation that the pair had been killed.

Beatriz Matos, the wife of Pereira, wrote on Twitter that "now that the spirits of Bruno are walking through the jungle and scattered among us, our strength is much greater."

The Javari Valley where the men went missing -- an area near the borders with Peru and Colombia -- is home to about 20 isolated Indigenous groups where drug traffickers, loggers, miners and illegal fishermen operate.

Greenpeace Brazil said the deaths were "a direct result of the agenda of President Jair Bolsonaro for the Amazon, which opens the way for predatory activities and crimes... in broad daylight."

Bolsonaro, who took office in 2019, has pushed to develop the Amazon, the world's largest tropical rainforest.

He drew fresh criticism Wednesday for saying Phillips was "disliked" for his reporting on the region and should have been more careful.

On Thursday, the far-right president tweeted "our condolences to the families" of the men.

In Brussels, seven Brazilian Indigenous leaders deplored the climate of violence and "impunity" in the Amazon in front of the European Union headquarters.

One of them, Dinamam Tuxa, told AFP that "Bruno and Dom Phillips were victims of government policies."
- 'Political crime' -

Shamdasani said attacks and threats against activists and Indigenous people in Brazil were "persistent" and urged the government to step up protections.

The Univaja association of Indigenous peoples, which had taken part in the search for the missing men, denounced the suspected killings as a "political crime," while the Brazilian Association of Investigative Journalism said "the president and his allies have become protagonists of attacks on the press" uncovering environmental crimes.

"People dead for defending Indigenous lands and the environment. Brazil cannot be that," added ex-president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who will face Bolsonaro in October elections.

Investigations continue to look into the motive for the crime as well as the role played by Oliveira and fellow suspect Oseney da Costa de Oliveira.

On the ground, civil police carried out three search warrants, but no arrests were made. Authorities said they had so far been unsuccessful in finding the boat in which Phillips and Pereira were traveling when they were last seen, an AFP journalist confirmed.

Brazilian media report there may be three more people involved. Police have not ruled out more arrests.

jm/app/dga/mlr/bfm/dw

Canada loses top 10 spot on Global Peace Index due to 'anti-government sentiment'


For the first time in almost a decade, Canada failed to rank among the top 10 most peaceful countries, according to the 2022 Global Peace Index (GPI) released this week.


Police push back during a sweep against the Freedom Convoy protest in Ottawa, February 18, 2022.

Lynn Chaya - 

The index, which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness, found that Canada lost its ranking as a result of the nation’s anti-government sentiment in response to measures put in place to curb the spread of COVID-19.

While still maintaining its status as the most peaceful country in the region, ranking in 12th position (versus the U.S. ranking 129), Canada’s 4.8 per cent deterioration was attributed to significant increases in “political terror” and “violent demonstrations “ indicators, with the former doubling in a year.

“The pandemic pushed many countries towards economic and political crises, while also heightening levels of anti-government sentiment and distrust of authority,” the report stated. “Countries that had become progressively more peaceful experienced outbreaks of protests and violence aimed particularly at the government’s handling of the pandemic.”

Throughout the pandemic, a rift grew among Canadians where the politicization of vaccines divided the nation.


Canada experienced an upheaval of angry demonstrators across the country, most notably in January when the Freedom Convoy truckers drove from B.C. to Ottawa to protest vaccine mandates.

It was then that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau invoked the Emergencies Act. However in order to declare a “public order emergency” under the act, the government must clearly show that : there are “threats to the security of Canada” and that it “is so serious as to be a national emergency.”

The government deemed the protesters a threat when many were arrested for various charges , including counselling mischief, counselling intimidation, counselling to obstruct police, intimidation and mischief.

Despite these deteriorations, there were major improvements particularly in the “terrorism impact”, “nuclear” and “heavy weapons” indicators, with the former falling to the lowest level seen since 2015.

The GPI also showed that Canada was among the NATO countries that spent the least in defence, ranking between Italy and Slovenia respectively.


© NATO Military spending, NATO, 2021

The Global Peace Index uses 23 quantitative and qualitative indicators each weighted on a scale of 1-5, and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of societal safety and security, the extent of ongoing domestic and international conflict, and and the degree of militarization.

Seven of the ten countries at the top of the GPI

Quebec RCMP search properties with alleged ties to neo-Nazi terrorist group Atomwaffen

RCMP officers descended on two properties in Quebec Thursday that are allegedly tied to a neo-Nazi terrorist group.


Quebec RCMP conducted searches in St-Ferdinand and Plessisville Thursday morning at properties with alleged ties to the Atomwaffen Division terrorist group.

Amarachi Amadike - National Post

Quebec RCMP said on Twitter that the searches were carried out as part of an investigation targeting individuals in the province with suspected ties to Atomwaffen Division, which is listed by the federal government as a terror group.

A SWAT team and canine unit were part of a contingent of about 60 RCMP officers who executed search warrants in St-Ferdinand and Plessisville, two towns located between Montreal and Quebec City.

According to Quebec RCMP Sgt. Charles Poirier, this investigation, which started in 2020, is one of national security and spearheaded by the Integrated National Security Enforcement Team.

“There are no arrests that are planned for today and no criminal charges,” Poirier said. “We’re just going there to search.”

U.S. neo-Nazi group Atomwaffen targeted Canadian police forces for 'swatting' hoaxes, FBI says

Two more extreme right-wing groups join Proud Boys on Canada's terror list

Although charges won’t be made, Poirier says there’s a possibility that the findings from today’s investigation will lead to more searches. Officials couldn’t comment on how many potential suspects there are.

“The purpose of the search is not to interact with them, it’s more to search the premises to find whatever investigators are looking for,” Poirier said. “It’s not so targeted on the individuals themselves today.”

Police searched a residential building behind a church in St-Ferdinand and an apartment building in Plessisville.


Photos posted online by the RCMP showed heavily armed officers outside various buildings.


Quebec RCMP conducted searches in St-Ferdinand and Plessisville Thursday morning at properties with alleged ties to the Atomwaffen Division terrorist group.

Poirier said there was no threat to public safety, but he added that an emergency response team was dispatched because of “the nature of the group,” which advocates for acts of violence.

The Atomwaffen division was founded in the United States in 2013. They were listed as a terrorist group in Canada in 2021.

In 2020, the group garnered police attention over a string of alleged “swatting” offences — a term used to describe the act of fabricating emergencies to trick SWAT units into action, exhausting police resources.

The group’s activities in the U.S. are similar. In 2020, alleged members were charged for running intimidation campaigns against journalists and members of the Anti-Defamation League in retaliation for reporting on the group’s members and activities.

The federal Public Safety Department’s website says Atomwaffen Division, which is also known as the National Socialist Order or NSO, calls for “acts of violence against racial, religious, and ethnic groups,” as well as against informants, police, and bureaucrats, “to prompt the collapse of society.”


Quebec RCMP conducted searches in St-Ferdinand and Plessisville Thursday morning at properties with alleged ties to the Atomwaffen Division terrorist group.

The group has carried out violent acts at public rallies, including in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, the government site states.

Poirier couldn’t comment on the specific criminal activities Atomwaffen partakes in but said they “obviously target some specific groups” like minorities and members of the LGBTQ community. He emphasized, however, that he is not an expert when it comes to their exact criminal misconduct.

“They have done some violent acts in the past,” Poirier said. “I also know that my colleagues in Ontario have arrested one in May.”

Poirier was referring to Seth Bertrand, a 19-year-old man from Windsor who was charged with terrorism after allegedly enlisting to join the Atomwaffen Division last month. Since 2013, the Neo-Nazi group has spread to both Canada and the United Kingdom with an unknown number of members.

With additional reporting from Adrian Humphreys, The Canadian Press and Montreal Gazettte

EU car bill highlights Poland's lack of charging points

The European Parliament has approved a bill prohibiting the sale of new CO2-emitting cars by 2035, part of plans to cut net emissions by 55% by 2030. The move highlights Poland's lack of electric charging facilities.

A sufficient number of charging points will be a prerequisite for people to buy more electric cars

European parliamentary deputies this week voted to back a 2021 European Commission proposal for a 100% reduction in CO2 emissions from new cars by 2035. The bill, if approved by all 27 member states, would make it impossible to sell fossil fuel-powered vehicles in the EU from that date.

Transport produces 25% of Europe's planet-heating emissions.

Being one of the main parts of the EU's "Fit for 55" program, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 and achieve climate neutrality by 2050, the bill does not yet mean "hard" implementation of the plan, but carmakers, parts suppliers and the relevant authorities in Central and Eastern Europe are already mulling their options.

Slovakia and Hungary have large car production plants, mainly making German cars, while Poland is a supplier of a lot of the parts, in particular batteries for cars produced by Western manufacturers. 

Lack of charging stations

However, the key here is not so much limitations on the number of cars produced in central and eastern Europe, but the number of cars that could be sold there, given the paucity of electric charging stations.

Brussels has proposed a statute obliging member states to install public charging stations within 60 kilometers (37.5 miles) of main roads by 2025. This means 3.5 million public charging stations for cars and vans by 2030 and an increase of up to 16.3 million by 2050.

But about 70% of the 300,000 charging points are located in just four of the EU's 27 countries.

In 2020, there were 44 chargers per 100 kilometers of roads in the Netherlands, in Belgium 38, in Germany 18 and in Poland 1.5.

According to data from the Alternative Fuels Market Observatory, at the end of April 2022, there were 2,166 charging points in Poland, up from 1,000 in December 2019. By comparison, there are an average of 50 charging points per 100 kilometers of motorway in the Netherlands. In Poland, it is not more than 0.5 per 100 kilometers of motorway.

The government has proposed that by 2024 there will be 4,035 chargers in Poland and in 2029 as many as 36,894. 

The ACEA, the European association of car manufacturers, says there are about 300,000 public charging points in the European Union. According to the organization, come the ban on the sale of new combustion cars, the network would have to include 6.8 million public charging points.

Electric cars and plug-in hybrid vehicles made up 18% of new passenger cars sold in the EU in 2021, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association. But the overall share of electric cars and plug-in hybrid vehicles is much lower.

It was estimated that in 2030 the percentage of electric cars may reach an average of 15%, but in Poland it would be only 7%. Today, Poland has only 45,000 electric vehicles.

Negotiations start now

Measures to reduce CO2 emissions now require the approval of all member states. This process could take about two years and there will probably be opposition votes, for example from Germany and France, both with strong automotive industries.

Amendments tabled by conservative MEPs aiming to dilute or delay the full ban on vehicles with combustion engines failed to receive backing from a majority.

Reuters news agency reported that industry groups, including German auto association VDA, have lobbied MEPs to reject the 2035 target, which they say penalizes alternative low-carbon fuels and is too early to commit to, given the uncertain rollout of charging infrastructure.

Tesla's huge plant outside Berlin plans to crank up output in the years ahead

Options exist

One of the counterproposals assumes limiting the reduction of CO2 emissions by new cars to 90%.

Another is not demanding the sale of non-combustion vehicles in specific parts of the EU. This would mean an "unblocked" pool of combustion cars going to countries least adapted to the challenges posed by electromobility including Poland. Warsaw is reportedly lobbying for this option.

The Polish Ministry for Climate and Environment has also pointed out that special funding programs have been launched to accelerate the setting up of charging stations for electric cars and significantly increasing their number.

The ministry said the negotiations on the regulations would be a long process and the final content could not be foreseen at the moment.

Edited by: Hardy Graupner

Farmers in India fear irregular monsoon amid summer heat and drought

India's monsoon season has been slow to start this year. With intermittent rains and dry spells in some regions, many fear for their crops.

India is witnessing extreme heat waves and delayed rains

The timely onset of the monsoon season in India bodes well for the economy, especially for farmers whose land is irrigated by the annual southwest monsoon.

This monsoon provides a lifeline for about 60% of the country's net cultivated area and industries linked to it. However, experts fear that the monsoon may be unevenly distributed this year.

Although the first rush of monsoonal rains arrived in southern India last week, it has been far from normal, heightening fears that its progress over the northern region and the northwest could be erratic and, maybe, delayed.

According to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) officials, the monsoon in Kerala state has been slow and weak, recording a 54% deficiency in rainfall in the first 10 days since the declared onset on May 29. 

The IMD considers a range of factors, such as rainfall, wind field — or the pattern of the winds — and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), before declaring the onset of monsoon.

Skymet Weather, which provides weather forecasting services, said that although the monsoon arrived over Kerala before its usual time,  its onset has been subdued.

"The monsoon has covered parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu well before the expected time but farmers must wait for at least the next eight to 10 days for the typical monsoon rains to arrive, which will help in sowing the crops," Skymet said.

How do cyclones propel monsoons?

For the past two years, multiple cyclones in late May and early June helped pull the monsoon winds over the Indian subcontinent, causing an early onset of the weather and even floods in many parts of the country.

Meanwhile, Cyclone Asani dissolved in mid-May of this year and helped the monsoon move into the Andaman Sea but did not pull it further out.

"At this point, Kerala has a below-normal rainfall based on the long-range forecast in May," D S Pai, the director of Institute of Climate Change Studies, told DW.

"The cyclonic wave needs to strengthen further. If a low-pressure area forms over the Bay of Bengal in the next few days, then it will propel the monsoon," added Pai.

Those views are echoed by Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Koll said that a late and sluggish southwestern monsoon in the first two months could mean dry spells, especially in many regions in the north.

"A slow or delayed progress of the monsoon could aggravate the water and food security of those regions in the north and northwest regions of the country that have already been affected by a rain deficit and heatwaves," Koll told DW.

"The monsoon has not been moving inland. Therefore its progress could be delayed. A lot will depend on its progress and, more importantly, uniform distribution across the country in the next two months," he added.

India gets about 70% of its annual rainfall in the June through September monsoon season, making it crucial for an estimated 260 million farmers.

Poor monsoon can impact economy

The vast majority of Indians — about 800 million people — live in villages and depend on agriculture, which accounts for about 15% of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP). A failed monsoon can have a rippling effect on economic growth.

Farmers typically begin preparing their fields for sowing within the first week of June, but those operations may be delayed.

The planting of key summer crops like rice, sugar cane, pulses and oilseeds begins with the arrival of monsoon rains in June.

Summer crops account for almost half of India's food output, and a delayed or poor monsoon means supply issues and acceleration in food inflation, a key metric which influences the Reserve Bank of India's decision on interest rates.

A good monsoon season could help reduce inflation, which jumped to an eight-year high in April and prompted the central bank to raise lending rates.

Many hope the rains will provide relief from the intense summer heat that has hit the wheat crop and triggered a power crisis as temperatures jumped to record highs in northern India.

"The sluggish progress of the monsoon is certainly a concerning matter at the moment. A very large area of India, which includes northern, northwestern and western parts, has hardly received any pre-monsoon rain since June 1," Akshay Deoras, a meteorologist and researcher, told DW.

Deoras, who has accurately forecast several high-impact weather events, including deadly tropical cyclones, added that below-average rainfall is expected across most regions until June 20.

After two deficient monsoons in 2014 and 2015, India saw six years of normal rainfall since 2016.

IMD officials have, however, sought to downplay fears of a delayed or erratic monsoon by saying that the country is likely to see a long-term increase in rainfall this year.

"The monsoon is now reviving and rainfall activities in most of India will increase from the week commencing in mid-June. Conditions are favorable for the monsoon's advance," said R K Jenamani, IMD senior scientist.

Edited by: Leah Carter

Will Spain face a gas crisis as Western Sahara conflict flares up?

Madrid's U-turn on its formerly neutral stance on the conflict has enraged Algeria. Trade relations have been frozen unilaterally and a cut in gas supplies to Europe could be in the pipeline.

The new alliance forged by Pedro Sanchez and King Mohammad VI is viewed with 

suspicion in North Africa

Perhaps it was by accident, but the coincidence was nevertheless striking. On the very same day Algeria suspended its friendship treaty with Spain on June 8, some 113 African refugees landed on the shores of the Spanish holiday island of Mallorca. The number of refugees, who had set sail from Algeria, was the biggest registered in a single day on the island this year.

Immediately, the government in Spain started wondering whether Algeria was now also resorting to illegal migration as a political weapon to sort out its differences with the EU member state. A similar tactic was applied by Algeria's neighbor Morocco last year in May, when the North African state opened its borders to allow about 6,000 refugees to swim to the Spanish exclave of Ceuta.

Refugees reached Ceuta by swimming or by walking at low tide, some used inflatable swimming rings

High stakes for the EU

However, there's more at stake in the spat between Spain and Algeria than renewed wrangling over migration policy. In the European Union, concern is mounting that the bilateral dispute might provoke a gas supply crisis on its southern periphery. And this at a time, when the EU is desperately exploring alternative gas resources to cut its huge dependency on supplies from Russia.

Algeria is Spain's second-biggest supplier of natural gas and covers about one-quarter of Spanish needs. But the North African country is important for the whole of the EU, supplying a total of around 11% of the bloc's overall gas demand.

Western diplomats have repeatedly warned that the authoritarian government of President Abdelmadjid Tebboune in Algiers could pose a security risk to EU energy policy by using gas as a political weapon, similar to Moscow's current efforts to counter EU sanctions. 

Latest developments have shown that the concerns in Brussels are not unfounded. In November 2021, Algiers shut off one pipe of the Maghreb-Europe Pipeline (MEG) which links Algerian gas fields via Morocco with Spanish and Portuguese gas grids. Annually, about 12 billion cubic meters of natural gas flow through the dual pipeline, with Morocco also benefiting from a gas-for-transit deal.

The never-ending dispute over Western Sahara

What's behind the disruptions of gas flows from North Africa is the ongoing dispute over Western Sahara  — a territory occupied by Spain until 1975 when Morocco annexed it. Since then, the desert region has been claimed by Morocco and the Indigenous Sahrawi family, led by the Polisario Front and backed by Algeria. Polisario is fighting for an independence referendum and has the support of the United Nations.

Until three months ago, Spain had remained neutral in the political row regarding its former colony. But in March, the Spanish government led by Socialist Pedro Sanchez made a surprise policy U-turn. In a letter to King Mohammad VI of Morocco, Sanchez announced his support for limited autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty, calling the plan "the most realistic basis" for Western Sahara.

In May 2021, Spain’s high court refused to arrest Polisario leader Brahim Ghali who was being treated for COVID in Madrid

Quite naturally, Rabat applauded, while Algiers fumed. In retaliation to the Spanish decision, Algerian President Tebboune recalled his ambassador to Madrid and suspended an agreement for the repatriation of thousands of Algerian refugees in Europe. In addition, the state-owned gas company Sonatrach said Spain would now have to pay more for Algerian gas.

Is reconciliation possible?

A few days ago, President Tebboune chose to escalate the rift by suspending a 20-year-old friendship treaty with Spain. Moreover, he threatened to freeze trade between the two countries, but refrained from cutting gas supplies altogether. He argued that the Spanish decision was a "violation of international law" and that the illegal occupation of Western Sahara by Morocco "cannot be tolerated."

Reconciliation with Madrid was only possible, Tebboune added, if Spain returned to international law and acknowledged the people of Western Sahara's right to self-determination.

Madrid's policy change not only plunged the Sanchez government into a major dilemma, but is likely to create a fresh conflict on Europe's southern periphery. This comes at a time when Europe's gas conflict with Russia is worsening, with a "new frontline emerging in the South," as the influential Spanish newspaper El Pais wrote recently.

Meanwhile, the European Commission has stepped into the fray, warning Algiers against imposing an all-out Spanish trade blockade. The EU's executive arm threatened to push back with sanctions, which prompted President Tebboune to give in and announce that gas contracts with Spain and Europe would be honored. Even bilateral trade would continue without interruption, he said.

Nevertheless, a gas blockade remains the elephant in the room as the EU and Algeria seek to normalize relations again. Despite Russia's war in Ukraine, Algiers has remained a close ally of Moscow and has so far refrained from publicly denouncing the invasion. Russia's state-owned gas giant Gazprom is a major player in North African gas fields through its multiple stakes in various national operators.

When push comes to shove, nobody can say just how Russian President Vladimir Putin will use his strong leverage in the region.

This article was originally published in German.

 World Day Against Child Labor: Underage workers on the rise in Africa

Child soldiers, underage gold miners, street vendors and cocoa plantation workers: After years of decline in child labor, the COVID-19 pandemic has pushed many African children back to work.

South Sudan is notoriously known for conscripting child soldiers

Cameroon's capital, Yaounde, is teeming with young vendors. Most of them are children between the ages of 7 and 14, and they occupy major intersections and markets — often working until late at night.

Kevin and Lea are among the hawkers selling their wares in Yaounde's populous neighborhoods during the school vacations. 

"I sell water to help my parents pay for my exercise books for the new school year," 8-year-old Kevin told DW.

"And I sell peanuts to pay for my school supplies," added 10-year-old Lea.

Chantal Zanga, a school principal, is concerned.

"I'm against the street trading that children do," said Zanga. "The child has a right to protection. If we send them to the streets, who will protect them?"

Many children lose valuable school time and spend much of their childhood working

Children lack protection

According to UNICEF, population growth, recurring crises, extreme poverty and inadequate social protection measures have led to an additional 17 million girls and boys engaging in child labor in sub-Saharan Africa over the past four years.

African countries are home to most of the world's 160 million working children.

The International Labor Organization estimates that more than 72 million children in sub-Saharan Africa — nearly one in five — are affected by child labor.

Experts estimate that millions more are at risk due to the coronavirus pandemic.

According to UNICEF, this marks the first time in 20 years that progress toward ending child labor has stalled.

It was against this backdrop that experts and child welfare activists met for the 5th World Conference on the Elimination of Child Labor in Durban, South Africa, last month, to discuss stricter measures for the protection of children. 

Danger on the streets

Distressed child street vendors face daily dangers from traffic, weather and sexual violence. Juliette Lemana, 12, sells safous, a fruit also known as a plum, and roasted plantains in Yaounde.

"Mama sent me to sell," she said, adding that recently a motorcycle ran over her classmate.

"Sometimes we come home at night and we can't find our way," the young girl told DW.

Cameroon's law prohibits child labor, according to Pauline Biyong, president of the League for the Education of Women and Children. 

"Cameroon has ratified many articles to protect children. This phenomenon should be marginal, but unfortunately we observe in our cities that children are used as labor by their parents. This is not normal," she said.

Poverty the leading cause of child exploitation

Economic hardship has forced many children to toil in the gold mines of Tanzania and neighboring Congo.

Others in countries such as South Sudan endanger their lives as child soldiers.

The International Labor Organization estimates that 2.1 million children work in cocoa production in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Around two-thirds of the cocoa produced worldwide comes from Africa.

Nestle is trying to polish its image in cocoa farming by building classrooms for children in cocoa-growing areas. In addition, the Swiss conglomerate has partnered with UNESCO to support women's literacy in the markets.

Despite all these efforts, children still work on some cocoa plantations. "The problem of child labor is real," Toussaint Luc N'Guessan, Nestle's program manager, told DW.

More and more children are working in West Africa's cocoa plantations

Parents abusing children

On the streets of Maiduguri in Nigeria's Borno State, many children work at the request of their parents.

"My father brought me here to learn tailoring," a young boy told DW. "Sometimes, I earn 150 nairas ($0.36/€0.35)."

Adamu Umar — who has 15 children — admitted to DW that he also makes his children work as street vendors to supplement the family income.

But their commitment to their families is costing them dearly, as aid organizations complain that children are denied schooling and education and thus a better life. 

According to the International Labor Organization, 43% of Nigerian children aged between 5 and 11 are child laborers, although international conventions prohibit this.

Poverty is often the cause of child labor in Africa

Severe penalties for parents

As part of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, all 193 member states have pledged to take effective action to eliminate forced labor, modern slavery, human trafficking and the worst forms of child labor — including child soldiers — by 2025. 

But controls to stop the employment of minors are rare, according to children's rights organization Plan International.

"It is our responsibility as parents to take care of our children, not our children taking care of us," said Lucy Yunana, a children's rights activist in Nigeria.

Yunana called on the government to crack down on the menace with strict penalties.

She said any child caught peddling or begging should be arrested, including parents allowing their daughters to work as domestic help. Parents would then have to pay the fines.

Back in Cameroon, an extensive program called "useful vacations" was launched at the Center for the Advancement of Women and Families in Nkoldongo to keep children occupied.

But with little encouragement, some parents prefer to boost the family income by having their children work.

"The children have to learn to look for income; that's not bad," Gisele, a mother who sells safous at the Ekounou market, told DW. 

"They have nothing to do during the vacations, and it's normal that they help us prepare for the start of school, at least by buying notebooks. [Life in] Cameroon is hard."

This article was originally written in German.

EU court rules against Austria on migrants' child benefits

Austria says it has saved over €300 million since introducing a system which reduces child benefits for workers whose children live in poorer countries. But the European Court of Justice says this is unfair.

    

The adjustment mechanism also allows for the possibility of paying more to children in richer countries

Austria is committing "indirect discrimination" with its mechanism that allows the state to pay less in child benefits to certain migrant groups, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) said in a ruling on Thursday.

The mechanism adjusts the amount of child benefits depending on the country where the child lives. If the child is a resident of a country that is richer than Austria, the migrant worker would receive more support from the state. In turn, people whose children live in poorer EU states are entitled to less money.

With a "great majority" of migrant workers coming from poorer nations, the adjustment mechanism "constitutes indirect discrimination on grounds of nationality which, in any event, is not justified," according to ECJ judges.

The court is basing the decision on the fact that the mechanism is not taking into account differences in purchasing power within Austria itself. Therefore, it is against EU law on social security to make that same distinction on the level of EU nations, the judges said.

The ruling is sure to echo across the European Union, including the neighboring Germany where conservative politicians have repeatedly mulled adopting a similar mechanism.

What was the response from Austria?

Austria first introduced the mechanism in January 2019, under a conservative Cabinet led by Sebastian Kurz. It has since saved €307 million ($323 million) on child benefits, a government spokesman told the DPA news agency.

The country's Family Ministry said it would accept the verdict.

"Regardless, I maintain the view that adjusting family benefits for children living abroad would simply be fair," said Austrian Family Minister Susanne Raab.

The head of right-wing FPÖ party, Herbert Kickl, also criticized the verdict, saying that Austria should pay no child benefits for children living outside Austria.

dj/msh (dpa, AFP, epd)