Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Rick Turner and Steve Biko were leading liberation thinkers in 1970s South Africa – why their ideas still matter

By Michael Onyebuchi Eze - 17 September 2024
THE CONVERSATION


Steve Biko was undoubtedly the most influential South African liberation struggle theorist and activist of the 1970s. Rick Turner was arguably among the most effectual white anti-apartheid activists of the era. Biko espoused black consciousness while Turner was a Marxist philosopher. Biko (30) was murdered by apartheid police in 1977. Turner (36) was shot dead by an apartheid assassin in 1978. Their ideas continue to resonate. Political scientist and philosopher Michael Onyebuchi Eze sets out, in a chapter of a new book, Rick Turner’s Politics as the Art of the Impossible, how the two men’s philosophies mirrored and critiqued each other. The Conversation Africa asked him to explain.

What were Turner’s and Biko’s philosophies?

Following almost three centuries of colonialism, the National Party came into power in South Africa in 1948. It formalised apartheid (apartness) into law. The policy kept black people and white people apart, and discriminated against the black majority. In 1960, the apartheid regime banned the African National Congress and Pan Africanist Congress liberation movements.

Rick Turner and Steve Biko gained prominence in the freedom struggle in the 1970s. Turner taught philosophy at the segregated University of Natal. Biko was studying at the “non-European” section of the university’s medical school. They met in Durban in 1970. The meeting triggered the “Durban Movement”, which mobilised workers’ and wider societal resistance against apartheid and capitalist exploitation. The movement shaped strategies in the fight against apartheid.


Biko’s black consciousness movement articulated a profound and multilayered critique of apartheid. It called for the psychological and cultural liberation of black South Africans. The core argument of black consciousness was that black people (“Africans”, “Coloureds” and “Indians”) needed to rally together around the cause of their oppression — the blackness of their skin. It implored them to work as a group to rid themselves of the shackles that bound them to perpetual servitude.

Freedom would only be possible if black people cultivated a sense of pride, self-worth and agency. Black consciousness sought to change negative connotations of blackness into an empowering ideal of freedom. This also meant liberty from the internalised racism and self-hate imposed by apartheid.

It involved rejecting the imposed narratives and values of the white oppressors, and developing a positive self identity.

Biko advocated for black people to champion their own liberation without reliance on white paternalism. As he famously noted,

the most potent weapon in the hands of the oppressor is the mind of the oppressed.

Since Christianity was also implicated in apartheid, Biko championed a new understanding of Christianity, rooted in black theology.

Black theology said Christianity was not about surrendering to oppression as the will of God, but about liberation from oppression. Biko’s philosophy was centred on the psychological and cultural liberation of black South Africans. For Biko, resistance meant freedom as defiance and defiance as freedom.

Turner called for radical social and political change through his critique of apartheid, capitalism and liberalism. These ideologies were connected in reproducing social systems of oppression and dehumanisation.

Apartheid was a form of racialist capitalism: the idea that access to labour, jobs or economic life is determined by race. It perpetuated unjust capitalist accumulation through oppressing black South Africans and excluding them from the economy.

Turner was not only critical of racialist capitalism; he also condemned white liberalism: an ideology of social justice and equality championed by white activists, who often do not fully understand their own privileges or biases.

He saw white liberalism as inadequate and superficial in fighting the root causes of systemic inequality, and often complicit in maintaining the status quo. Beyond the material basis of oppression, Turner also challenged the ideological foundation of apartheid.

Turner advanced a new idea of freedom that focused on transformation of the mind and socio-cultural mindset. He linked political rights with dignity. Doing so made apartheid oppression inherently illegal and immoral. Where apartheid used Christianity to justify racialist capitalism, Turner found potential in Christian egalitarian principles for mobilising resistance.

He rejected white paternalism, and championed a radical restructuring of society based on egalitarian principles and Christian liberation theology.

Therefore, Turner and Biko’s philosophies mirrored each other in several ways. They reflected a shared vision for radical social and political change in South Africa. Their shared vision of resistance was rooted in human restoration, freedom from imposed colonial language and ideas, and a rejection of white paternalism.

They saw political freedom as synonymous with dignity and rights (Biko), and a radical restructuring of society based on egalitarian principles (Turner).

To Turner and Biko resistance was not just a reaction to oppression but a proactive effort to create new social relations and restore agency to the oppressed.

How did their philosophies differ?

While Turner and Biko shared many philosophical similarities, their approaches and emphases had notable differences. Turner’s critique was rooted in the analysis of capitalism. His focus was on disrupting the capitalist structures that underpinned apartheid.

Biko’s focus was on the psychological and cultural dimensions of oppression. He emphasised the importance of black consciousness, which aimed to instil pride and a sense of agency among blacks. He was more concerned with internalised racism and psychological liberation.

To Turner, Christianity was instrumental to dismantling apartheid. To Biko, black liberation was the purpose of Christianity.

They both rejected white liberalism and its paternalism, but for different reasons. Turner rejected it on pragmatic grounds of not being forceful enough to achieve substantial change. Biko rejected liberalism because racial privilege meant whites could not experience what it meant to be black.

What can South Africa learn from both men?

Turner and Biko offered lessons for contemporary South Africa. They are particularly valuable in the context of ongoing struggles for social justice, equality and true decolonisation.

South Africa remains the most unequal society in the world despite government reform efforts. Where change is visible, the distinction between the new black elites and the less privileged turns into elitist discrimination.

Superficial reforms on land redistribution, access to basic healthcare or even basic education do not address the root causes of systemic inequality. Both Turner and Biko emphasised the need for deep structural changes.

True decolonisation requires a shift on how knowledge is acquired, affects and shapes the cultural foundations of a society. This involves challenging the narratives and values that justify and sustain oppression.

Turner and Biko teach that paternalistic attitudes, even from well-meaning allies, can undermine genuine liberation efforts. Empowerment initiatives should be led by those directly affected by oppression, ensuring that their voices and experiences are at the forefront of the movement.


Rick Turner’s Politics as the Art of the Impossible is published by Wits University Press (2024).

Michael Onyebuchi Eze, Assistant Professor, California State University, Fresno

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
An Autumn of America’s Rage

Opinion


Jumah Boukleb
Tuesday - 17 September 2024

Why is it that we disagree on when autumn begins when compared to the other three seasons? Is it because autumn has unique characteristics that are not found in other seasons? Or is it because, despite also being the season of plowing and sowing, autumn has unfairly been singled out as a metaphor for anger, aging, and the beginning of the end?

The Greek philosopher Aristotle says that one swallow does not make a summer, meaning that the sight of swallows in the sky is a sign that summer has begun. So, what signals the beginning of autumn? Is it the cool breeze, morning fog, rainfall, dropping temperatures, falling leaves, the day becoming as long as the night, or all of them together?

The year is divided into four seasons, each of them three months long, meaning that autumn should begin in September. However, meteorologists say otherwise and agree that autumn does not begin until September 21.

Personally, I take my cue that autumn has begun from the British political calendar. Since arriving in England and choosing to make it my place of residence, I have considered that autumn begins when the annual conferences of the three major political parties are held. Thus, I have stopped paying attention to what meteorologists or other experts say. When I wake up in the morning and hear that British parties are preparing for their annual conferences, I choose to put my summer shirts away, turn to my wardrobe, and take out suits made for the colder autumn weather.

This year, autumn announced its arrival in Britain this past weekend, when the Liberal Democrats held their annual conference. It will soon be followed by the conferences of the other two major parties: Labour and the Conservatives. Labour will celebrate its return to power after an absence of around a decade and a half, and their conference will stand out. It will be the conference of the ruling party, which determines the government’s program. The Conservatives, in their conference, will choose a new leader and begin another long journey, which may last a decade, towards 10 Downing Street, if luck is on their side.

However, the developments we will witness this autumn on the other side of the Atlantic, specifically on November 5 (the US presidential elections), will be more consequential than the British parties’ conferences.

As expected, all eyes are on that fateful day. The world awaits it with both fear and hope. It all depends on which side one stands. With each passing day, this date approaches, the anticipation grows, disputes sharpen, the competition becomes fiercer, and bookmakers become busier.

The US presidential election concerns every nation in the world, not just Americans. That is a fact. Recently, I read online that people of various nationalities are demanding that the people of the world be given the right to help determine who governs the US, that is, the right to a vote. Although the request is strange and unreasonable, I do not believe that it is not without merit.

Interests drive and shape the policies of nations, peoples, and even individuals. They decide the course of history. Interests inherently diverge. For example, Russia has an interest in the Republican candidate being voted into the White House, as he has pledged to stop supporting Ukraine and end the war very quickly. Ukraine’s interests would be served by a Democratic victory, as the party’s candidate has promised to continue supporting the Kyiv government politically, militarily, and economically.

However, autumn is expected to be extremely hot in the US this year, especially after the second attempt on the Republican candidate’s life. The competition between the presidential candidates is intensifying, as indicated by the public opinion polls that affirm the deep divisions in America. There are fears that violence could break out after the results are announced, leaving dire consequences similar to those we saw on January 6, 2020, in the Capitol. That means that this year's autumn could become an autumn of anger in the US, but not due to a government decision to raise the price of bread.

Popular rage engendered by division, in a country like the US, whose constitution grants citizens the right to bear arms, gives rise to ramifications we would not see in another country where only the state, its security agencies, and its arms, enjoy that right. In any case, things have seemingly remained under control in the US so far. The country’s security agencies have certainly drawn lessons from the events that unfolded nearly four years ago, and they are doing everything they can to avoid their recurrence. No one, not in the US nor anywhere else, had expected the attack on the Capitol. It is also worth remembering what recently happened after the elections in Venezuela, though we will probably not see similar scenes in the US. Still, the events that unfolded in the US in January 2020 were all but mirrored in Brazil shortly after its presidential elections.
Turkish autopsy confirms Aysenur Ezgi Eygi died from gunshot to the head

Activist was killed when Israeli troops opened fire at a protest in the occupied West Bank

Lizzie Porter
Istanbul

September 17, 2024


A Turkish autopsy on Aysenur Ezgi Eygi, the US-Turkish activist killed during a protest in the occupied West Bank, has confirmed she died from a gunshot wound to the head.

Medical and forensic experts determined the cause of death to be “fracture of the skull bones due to gunshot wounds, bleeding between the brain membranes and destruction of brain tissue”, a copy of the report seen by The National said.

The findings of the autopsy, carried out in Izmir on September 13, largely confirm an earlier examination carried out by Palestinian doctors on the day of Ms Eygi's death in the occupied West Bank one week earlier.

Who shot Aysenur Ezgi Eygi?

The Turkish report did not provide details on who shot Ms Eygi, 26, while the Palestinian autopsy report assigned blame for the death, saying she had been shot dead by Israeli army troops.

An initial Israeli inquiry said it was “highly likely” Ms Eygi had been shot “indirectly and unintentionally” by its forces after they opened fire on protesters whom they accused of causing a riot.

The Turkish team said it would run more tests to determine the specific medical cause of her death.

The 11-page Turkish autopsy report, signed by 10 officials including Izmir Chief Public Prosecutor Fahri Mutlu Tosun, details how Ms Eygi’s body was received at a morgue in Izmir under police escort, after being returned by plane. The autopsy procedure was witnessed by Yilmaz Eygi, one of Ms Eygi’s uncles, who lives in Turkey.

Like the Palestinian doctors, the Turkish team reported Ms Eygi had appeared to be in good health before her death. They found a 1.5cm-long wound on the rear left of her skull, which doctors said was “evaluated as a gunshot wound”. There were no other signs of trauma on the rest of her body, they added.

Last week, the body of Ms Eygi was flown to Turkey for burial in her family's hometown of Didim on Saturday. She was shot dead on September 6 while attending a protest in the West Bank village of Beita. She had been volunteering with a pro-Palestinian solidarity organisation observing a protest against Israeli settlement expansion.

Ms Eygi, 26, had lived in Seattle in the US and had recently graduated from the University of Washington. She had gone to volunteer in the occupied West Bank with the International Solidarity Association, a pro-Palestine volunteer group. She had visited her grandfather in Didim in early September, shortly before travelling to Jordan to cross into the West Bank.

Israeli attacks have intensified in the West Bank in recent weeks, as it carried out its biggest military operation in the Palestinian territory in decades. Almost 700 Palestinians have been killed since October 7, according to the UN, and attacks on Palestinian communities by Israeli settlers have grown more widespread. The UN has recorded about 1,350 attacks by Israeli settlers on Palestinians since October 7, forcing more than 1,600 people from their homes.

Demands for action over fatal shooting


Her funeral was attended by senior Turkish officials including the ministers of interior, justice, foreign affairs, and family and social services departments who, alongside other mourners, spoke of the more than 42,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza.

In interviews with The National, relatives and neighbours described Ms Eygi as passionate about humanitarian and environmental causes. “She went [to the West Bank] because she wanted to stop the war,” said Munaver Arslan, one of Ms Eygi's nieces, as she began to cry. “She had lots of humanity.”

Ms Eygi's family and close friends have demanded firm action over her death from the US government.

Speaking at a regular press briefing on Monday, a US State Department representative said the findings from Israel's initial inquiry into the 26-year-old's death do not exonerate Israeli security forces and the US government would consider further measures if it was not satisfied with the results of a full Israeli inquiry.

"I hear people ... hold the initial findings up as if they somehow exonerated Israeli security forces. They very much do not, at least in our point of view," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said. "If the first investigation plays out ... and we are not satisfied, we will of course look at whether any other measures are appropriate."

The incident is likely to further strain relations between Turkey and Israel, which have deteriorated rapidly since the October 7 Hamas attacks, which killed 1,200 people and lead to more than 240 being taken hostage, and the resulting war in Gaza. Turkey has halted all trade with Israel and senior officials from the two nations have traded barbs over social media. It may also lead to tension between Washington and Ankara, as some Turkish officials criticise the US for its initial reaction to Ms Eygi's killing.

Biden criticised over delayed reaction


A senior Turkish official accused Israeli forces of "directly targeting" Ms Eygi and called for those responsible to be brought to trial. "Those who did this, those who gave this order should all be tried for murder," said Omer Celik, spokesman for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling AK Party.

He accused the US government of failing to condemn the shooting quickly. "The President of the United States first said that he did not have enough information," Mr Celik said in remarks reported by Turkish state media. "Then he said that the Israeli forces did it unintentionally and not directly. When there were reactions, he felt the need to say something stronger."

Last week, Mr Biden said the shooting was "totally unacceptable" and that Israel must "do more to ensure that incidents like this never happen again".


Updated: September 17, 2024, 4:58 AM
 GOOD DOBRA

Russian Controversial War Film to be Screened in Toronto Despite 'Threats'

Focusing on Moscow's invasion of Ukraine from the perspective of Russian soldiers, the film will have two screenings at the TIFF Lightbox cultural center in Toronto, the festival said.

by AFP | September 17, 2024, 
Still from the trailer "Russians at War". 2024. YouTube screenshot


The controversial documentary "Russians at War" will be shown in Toronto on Tuesday, after the city's film festival organizers had halted screenings due to "significant threats" over their decision to feature the film.

Focusing on Moscow's invasion of Ukraine from the perspective of Russian soldiers, the film will have two screenings at the TIFF Lightbox cultural center in Toronto, the festival said.

The documentary has sparked outrage since it was first shown in Venice earlier this month, with some calling it a pro-Kremlin film that seeks to whitewash and justify Moscow's assault on its neighbor.


The Toronto International Film Festival, which ended on Sunday, announced last week it was pulling the film due to threats -- calling the decision an "unprecedented move."
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Yulia Kovaliv, Ukraine's ambassador to Canada, on Monday condemned the festival for reinstating the screenings, saying its "persistence to serve as a platform to share Russian propaganda is beyond imaginable."

Canadian regional public broadcaster TVO, which had helped fund the documentary through the Canadian Media Fund, has pulled its support for the film and said it would not be airing it as planned in the coming months.

Russian-Canadian filmmaker Anastasia Trofimova has rejected the criticisms, telling AFP it was "an anti-war film" that showed "ordinary guys" who were fighting for Russia and treated as cannon fodder.


A Ukrainian FPV drone operator, speaking to Kyiv Post, described this tactic as dubious, though some Ukrainian media argue that it’s worth paying attention to.

The soldiers depicted appear to have little idea of why they have been sent to the front, and are shown struggling to make Soviet-era weapons serviceable.
Musk deletes post joking about assassinating Biden and Harris amid heavy criticism


After second apparent attempt on Republican candidate Trump’s life, X owner wrote that ‘no one is even trying to assassinate’ the Democratic incumbent and nominee

By Barbara Ortutay
Today,

AP — Elon Musk deleted a post on his social media platform X in which he said “no one is even trying to assassinate” US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in the wake of an apparent assassination attempt on former president Donald Trump while he was playing golf.

Musk, who has nearly 200 million followers on the social media site he bought for $44 billion in 2022, has increasingly embraced conservative ideologies in recent years and endorsed Trump for president.

While he has removed posts in the past, Musk has also kept up and even doubled down on other such inflammatory comments. Last week, he made a joke about impregnating Taylor Swift after the singer posted an endorsement for Harris.
Promoted:Sword2ShekelKeep Watching

Early Monday, after taking down the post about the apparent Trump assassination, the 53-year-old billionaire wrote on the platform: “Well, one lesson I’ve learned is that just because I say something to a group and they laugh doesn’t mean it’s going to be all that hilarious as a post on X.”

The original post was in response to DogeDesigner, one of the 700 accounts that Musk follows, who asked: “Why they want to kill Donald Trump?”

Musk’s reply was quickly condemned by many X users, and “DeportElonMusk” began trending on X on Monday morning.

“Violence should only be condemned, never encouraged or joked about,” said White House spokesperson Andrew Bates in response to Musk’s post. “This rhetoric is irresponsible.”

The Tesla CEO has previously posted conspiracy theories and feuded with world leaders and politicians. X is currently banned in Brazil amid a dustup between Musk and a Brazilian Supreme Court judge over free speech, far-right accounts and misinformation.
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He’s also received criticism in the past for what critics said were posts encouraging violence.

Last month, for instance, the British government called on Musk to act responsibly after he used X to unleash a barrage of posts that officials said risked inflaming violent unrest gripping the country.

Musk said when he bought the platform then known as Twitter that protecting free speech — not money — was his motivation because, as he put it, “having a public platform that is maximally trusted and broadly inclusive is extremely important to the future of civilization.”

Sarah Kreps, director of Cornell University’s Tech Policy Institute, noted that Musk has long been trying to “push the boundaries of free speech, in part by engaging in impulsive, unfiltered comments on a range of political topics.”
France uses tough, untested cybercrime law to target Telegram boss Pavel Durov

Telegram has said it 'abides by EU laws', and that it's 'absurd to claim that a platform or its owner are responsible for abuse of that platform'

Reuters Paris Published 17.09.24,

Telegram founder and CEO Pavel DurovFile picture

When French prosecutors took aim at Telegram boss Pavel Durov, they had a trump card to wield - a tough new law with no international equivalent that criminalises tech titans whose platforms allow illegal products or activities.


The so-called LOPMI law, enacted in January 2023, has placed France at the forefront of a group of nations taking a sterner stance on crime-ridden websites. But the law is so recent that prosecutors have yet to secure a conviction.

With the law still untested in court, France's pioneering push to prosecute figures like Durov could backfire if its judges balk at penalising tech bosses for alleged criminality on their platforms.

Also Read
Telegram CEO makes first public comments since French authorities targeted him and his app


A French judge placed Durov under formal investigation last month, charging him with various crimes, including the 2023 offence: "Complicity in the administration of an online platform to allow an illicit transaction, in an organised gang," which carries a maximum 10-year sentence and a 500,000 euro ($556,300) fine.

Being under formal investigation does not imply guilt or necessarily lead to trial, but indicates judges think there's enough evidence to proceed with the probe. Investigations can last years before being sent to trial or dropped.

Durov, out on bail, denies Telegram was an "anarchic paradise." Telegram has said it "abides by EU laws," and that it's "absurd to claim that a platform or its owner are responsible for abuse of that platform."

In a radio interview last week, Paris Prosecutor Laure Beccuau hailed the 2023 law as a powerful tool for battling organised crime groups who are increasingly operating online.

The law appears to be unique. Eight lawyers and academics told Reuters they were unaware of any other country with a similar statute.

"There is no crime in U.S. law directly analogous to that and none that I'm aware of in the Western world," said Adam Hickey, a former U.S. deputy assistant attorney general who established the Justice Department's (DOJ) national security cyber program.

Hickey, now at U.S. law firm Mayer Brown, said U.S. prosecutors could charge a tech boss as a "co-conspirator or an aider and abettor of the crimes committed by users" but only if there was evidence the "operator intends that its users engage in, and himself facilitates, criminal activities."

He cited the 2015 conviction of Ross Ulbricht, whose Silk Road website hosted drug sales. U.S. prosecutors argued Ulbricht "deliberately operated Silk Road as an online criminal marketplace ... outside the reach of law enforcement," according to the DOJ. Ulbricht got a life sentence.

Timothy Howard, a former U.S. federal prosecutor who put Ulbricht behind bars, was "sceptical" Durov could be convicted in the United States without proof he knew about the crimes on Telegram, and actively facilitated them - especially given Telegram's vast, mainly law-abiding user base.


"Coming from my experience of the U.S. legal system," he said, the French law appears "an aggressive theory."

Michel Séjean, a French professor of cyber law, said the toughened legislation in France came after authorities grew exasperated with companies like Telegram.

"It's not a nuclear weapon," he said. "It's a weapon to prevent you from being impotent when faced with platforms that don't cooperate."

Tougher laws


The 2023 law traces its origins to a 2020 French interior ministry white paper, which called for major investment in technology to tackle growing cyber threats.

It was followed by a similar law in November 2023, which included a measure for the real-time geolocation of people suspected of serious crimes by remotely activating their devices. A proposal to turn on their devices' cameras and mouthpieces so that investigators could watch or listen in was shot down by France's Constitutional Council.

These new laws have given France some of the world's toughest tools for tackling cybercrime, with the proof being the arrest of Durov on French soil, said Sadry Porlon, a French lawyer specialized in communication technology law.

Tom Holt, a cybercrime professor at Michigan State University, said LOPMI "is a potentially powerful and effective tool if used properly," particularly in probes into child sexual abuse images, credit card trafficking and distributed denial of service attacks, which target businesses or governments.

Armed with fresh legislative powers, the ambitious J3 cybercrime unit at the Paris prosecutor's office, which is overseeing the Durov probe, is now involved in some of France's most high-profile cases.

In June, the J3 unit shut down Coco, an anonymized chat forum cited in over 23,000 legal proceedings since 2021 for crimes including prostitution, rape and homicide.

Coco played a central role in a current trial that has shocked France.

Dominique Pelicot, 71, is accused of recruiting dozens of men on Coco to rape his wife, whom he had knocked out with drugs. Pelicot, who is expected to testify this week, has admitted his guilt, while 50 other men are on trial for rape.

Coco's owner, Isaac Steidel, is suspected of a similar crime as Durov: "Provision of an online platform to allow an illicit transaction by an organised gang."


Steidel's lawyer, Julien Zanatta, declined to comment.



Sep 17, 2024  #moldova #moldovaearthquake #indiatoday
A magnitude 5.2 earthquake in Moldova was caught live on television as the country's president was giving an interview.
Maia Sandu was seen talking to a Moldova 1 TV show host when the room suddenly began to shake leaving Sandu looking stunned but calm.
The 5.2-magnitude tremor happened at 17:40 local time (14:40GMT), 62 kilometres (38 miles) northwest of Buzau, in Romania.
It could be felt in Moldova, Ukraine, and Bulgaria.

Ukraine has both the highest mortality rate and the lowest birth rate in the world, says CIA 


The mortality rate in Ukraine is currently three times higher than the birth rate. The UN forecasts that the population will fall from its Soviet peak of 51mn in 1991 to a mere 15mn by 2100 if nothing changes. / bne IntelliNews

By Ben Aris in Berlin September 15, 2024

Ukraine currently holds the grim distinction of having both the highest mortality rate and the lowest birth rate in the world, according to the latest data from the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) factbook.

The updated World Factbook reports that Ukraine's death rate stands at 18.6 per 1,000 inhabitants, placing it at the top of the global rankings. Lithuania follows with 15.02 deaths per 1,000 people, while Serbia is third with 14.9. In contrast, Qatar has the lowest mortality rate, recording just 1.4 deaths per 1,000 inhabitants.

Additionally, Ukraine has the lowest birth rate worldwide, with only 6 births per 1,000 people. The French territories of Saint-Pierre and Miquelon occupy the second-lowest spot, with a birth rate of 6.4 per 1,000 people. Niger, by comparison, has the highest birth rate at 46.6 births per 1,000 inhabitants.

In 2024, Ukraine’s mortality rate is expected to be three times higher than its birth rate, with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Kyiv recording the majority of both newborns and fatalities.

As bne IntelliNews reported, the war in Ukraine with Russia has caused a demographic catastrophe that is the worst example of a wider demographic crisis that is sweeping Europe and will take Emerging Europe population levels back to the early 20th century.

“The ever-present proximity of death or Russian occupation, family separation, and financial as well as physical insecurity is having a dire effect on Ukraine's already-declining birth rate,” the World Bank said in a report last year.

Ukraine's birth rate has already plummeted to a 300-year low as the country's population collapses. Ukraine’s population shrank to 29mn last year from 45mn pre-war, according to Ukraine Business News, with just 187,000 births recorded (including in Russian-occupied territories). This is the lowest annual figure in recorded history over the last 300 years, exacerbating an already dire population catastrophe facilitated by economic turmoil and war.

Ukraine's demographic crisis dates back to the Soviet collapse in 1991, when the country’s population stood at a record 51.9mn. Economic crises and labour migration saw the country’s total fertility rate plummet to 1.4 births per woman (well below the replacement level of 2.1) by 2022 and possibly as low as 0.7 by the following year, according to Ukraine’s Institute of Demography and Social Studies.

And the population will not recover quickly even if the war ends tomorrow. The latest UN median forecast for Ukraine's population by 2100 is for it to more than halve from its pre-war levels to a mere 15.3mn people, according to UN's 2024 Revision of World Population Prospects.

“The popular TV ad of the early 90s "We are 52mn" used to be part of the identity of Ukrainians of my generation. Now even the most optimistic scenarios predict twice as few. "Towards the abyss" visualised,” Volodymyr Ishchenko, a research associate at the Institute of East European Studies at the Freie Universität Berlin.

Demography is a problem across all of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) and Europe, but ironically, Russia is performing the best of any major economy at the moment, thanks to Putin’s babies, consistent natal and maternity reforms that the Russian president launched during his first term of office in 2000. The Kremlin has also been promoting larger families with a raft of generous financial and tax benefits over the last two decades.

As detailed in bne IntelliNews’ latest despair index – the sum of the rate of unemployment, inflation and poverty – Russia continues to suffer from high inflation but unemployment is at an all-time low and its poverty rate of only 8% is one of the lowest in Europe. Although not part of the despair index, Russia’s fertility rate of 1.49 is one of the higher rates in Europe and it continues to rise.

The military Keynesianism boost to the Russian economy from the war, coupled with record-high real disposable incomes of 9.6% in July, has fuelled a consumer boom this year, although there are increasing signs that the economy is cooling now as the war bump effects begin to wear off.

 

Russia, Bangladesh navigate stresses over nuclear power plant loan payments


Cooling towers / Pexels - Johannes Plenio

By bno - Chennai Office - Ananta Shesha September 16, 2024

According to Bangladeshi media reports, Russia has demanded that Dhaka pay over $630mn to settle accrued interest payments for a loan used to fund the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant (NPP).

Bangladesh which has recently seen its former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina ousted, is under the authority of an interim government led by advisors including Nobel Laureate Muhammed Yunus. The interim government while inheriting the payment liabilities for the NPP are likely to not have been as familiar with the payment settlement mechanisms for the loan as its predecessor led by Hasina.

The interest payment due on September 15, is likely to be missed despite the funds being available, as the transaction requires careful circumvention of US sanctions on Russia. The loan extended by Russia under a government to government deal is a typical venture that the Russian state-owned nuclear power conglomerate offers to low income countries like Bangladesh.

‘Rosatom Overseas’ the subsidiary incharge of structuring the financing plan for Bangladesh’s first NPP, directed the funds via another Russian state-owned institution VEB.RF which functions as a hybrid between a state owned bank and investment fund. According to a report in The Business Standard, VEB.RF sent an official communique to Bangladesh’s Economic Relations Division on August 21 2024, asking for all outstanding interest payments to be deposited in the Shanghai branch of Bank of China.

VEB.RF was also ready to accept the payment designated either in US dollars or Chinese yuan. Both Rosatom Overseas and VEB.RF are heavily sanctioned entities on the designated lists of the US government which in turn makes any entity handling cross border payments and transactions involving them a target for secondary US sanctions. In 2022, Russia and Bangladesh agreed to structure the payments for the loan partially to be repaid in yuan and Bangladesh’s own taka (BDT).

Following this, Dhaka has made several payments to Russia designated in yuan to service the loan, channelled through China’s analogue to the Western SWIFT payments messaging service, Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). However the payments have been a contributing cause to Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserve (forex) crisis whereby Dhaka was unable to keep a stock of foreign currencies than it was paying out to service its various international obligations.

The forex crisis had negative second order effects on Bangladesh’s domestic and international economic prospects as the country eventually sought a bailout loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Navigating the political chaos and economic difficulties Bangladesh’s new interim government reportedly asked for an extension not only for the interest payments but also the first principal repayment instalment which is due in 2027. However, according to The Business Standard, the request for deferment was denied by VEB.RF.

The unsubstantiated narrative about former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her family embezzling $5bn with Russian complacency, from the funds earmarked for the Rooppur NPP has again surfaced in Bangladesh's press.

That said, counter narratives quoting Russian government press releases refuting the allegations have also been published prominently, which indicates that public opinion in Bangladesh has not yet fully turned against Russia.
ECOCIDE
Western Balkans coal power plants still pumping out toxic emissions


Sulphur dioxide emissions from Western Balkan coal power plants increased in 2023 compared to the previous year.
 / Janusz Walczak via Pixabay

By Clare Nuttall in Glasgow
 September 17, 2024
bne IntelliNews

Six years after the Western Balkans were required to meet new air pollution standards, coal power plants in the region continue to release harmful levels of pollutants, according to a new report by environmental watchdog CEE Bankwatch.

The study reveals that sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions from these plants increased in 2023 compared to the previous year, while dust and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions remained consistently high, according to the latest Comply or Close report from Bankwatch.

In 2023, total SO2 emissions from plants included in the National Emissions Reduction Plans (NERPs) of Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia were 5.7 times higher than allowed, exceeding the levels seen in 2022.

"The situation remains appalling," says the report, "Comply or Close: Six years of deadly legal breaches by Western Balkan coal plants". It highlights that emissions have not significantly decreased since the compliance deadline passed in 2018.

In an interview with bne IntelliNews, Pippa Gallop, Southeast Europe energy policy officer at CEE Bankwatch, pointed to the lack of political will among governments in the region to take action to close old, highly polluting power plants or upgrade them to meet emissions reduction targets.

“Unfortunately, we don't see political will to make sure coal power plants 'comply or close'. So far, to the best of our knowledge, not a single one of the energy companies has even been fined for breaching the pollution rules,” Gallop said.

Little progress made


Despite having implemented some pollution control measures, the region’s power plants have not made significant progress in reducing harmful emissions. Serbia’s coal plants were the highest SO2 emitters in absolute terms, with 296,011 tonnes, followed by Bosnia with 181,807 tonnes.

Nor have efforts to install equipment to reduce emissions been successful. The worst offender in absolute terms was the Ugljevik power plant in Bosnia, which released 97,189 tonnes of SO2 in 2023. Despite its operator, an Elektroprivreda Republike Srpska subsidiary, spending €85mn on a desulphurisation unit funded by a loan from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the unit is not functioning correctly due to technical problems. The operator now admits it is not operational, calling it an "economic burden".

Similarly, Serbia’s Kostolac B, another repeat offender, saw its SO2 emissions increase nearly 5.8 times above the legal limit in 2023, reversing a brief period of improvement in 2021. The desulphurisation unit at this plant, financed by China Eximbank and installed by the China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC), is either underused or underperforming.

"This … comes down to enforcement. Such units do use energy that could otherwise be sold, so there is no incentive for the companies to use them unless they are heavily penalised for not doing so. The fines have to be more expensive than continuing the breach. Yet none of the governments has issued any penalties at all that we are aware of,” said Gallop.

Dust ceilings broken

Dust emissions in the region only saw a slight decrease in 2023, at nearly 1.75 times the allowable levels, compared to 1.8 times in 2022. Kosovo, Bosnia and North Macedonia again exceeded their national dust ceilings. Kosova B2 in Kosovo was the highest absolute dust emitter, releasing 3,798 tonnes in 2023, which is 9.2 times the amount allowed under Kosovo’s NERP.

For NOx emissions, Kosovo and Bosnia exceeded their ceilings, joined by Serbia in 2023. The report attributes this to a lack of investment in NOx reduction and annually decreasing ceilings for NOx in the NERPs. Kosovo emitted 2.73 times its national ceiling of NOx.

The Energy Community Secretariat has taken steps in response to these breaches, initiating dispute settlement procedures against Bosnia, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia. However, the case against Serbia has not yet been escalated due to ongoing investments in pollution control measures.

The end of 2023 marked the deadline for the closure of the smallest and oldest coal power plants under the ‘opt-out’ limited lifetime derogation. However, all three countries in the Western Balkans with plants subject to this rule — Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia — are currently in breach, as all these plants are still operational.

Montenegro’s Pljevlja plant, along with several others operating under the opt-out provision, continues to breach pollution limits after its limited operational hours expired in 2020. In 2022, Bosnia's Tuzla 4 and Kakanj 5, along with Serbia’s Morava, also became in violation. Serbia’s Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS) plans to continue running Morava until 2026, along with another opt-out plant, Kolubara A.

Despite legal obligations to close these plants, none have ceased operations, contributing significantly to the region's air pollution in 2023.

Lack of political will

Far from being keen to close down coal power plants, according to Gallop, governments in the region would have liked to increase electricity generation from coal. This only didn’t happen, she told bne IntelliNews, because "they were largely unable to".

“The electricity import price rises in late 2021 and 2022 contributed to a multi-faceted crisis in the region, as in parallel several coal power plants had technical problems and went offline for extended periods, especially in Serbia, North Macedonia and Kosovo. Serbia and North Macedonia also had trouble securing enough coal and had to import from the other countries,” explained Gallop.

“This created a push to open completely new coal mines in the Republika Srpska part of Bosnia & Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Montenegro, but only in Republika Srpska has this actually happened so far.”

According to Gallop, this “made the governments very nervous about energy security and they used it as an excuse to close the smallest, oldest plants that they had promised to close by 2023”. She warns that the situation was misused as an excuse by Montenegro and Bosnia, despite the two countries not experiencing electricity crises.

“As for the long term, while some of the governments are trying to prolong the coal phase-out for as long as possible, there will be a limit to how much they are able to do this, due to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which will make electricity from coal-heavy countries unattractive for trading with EU countries from the beginning of 2026, because the importers will have to pay high fees for it,” said Gallop.

“Since domestic household consumers have very low, regulated prices, the utilities depend a lot on trading with neighbouring countries to cross-subsidise their businesses. With less demand from countries like Croatia, Italy, Greece, Bulgaria, and Hungary, coal plants will have increasing financial difficulties as they will not be able to pass all their costs on to domestic consumers.”

“Governments and utilities are intent on squeezing every last kilowatt out of their aging coal power plants, regardless of the health costs. The countries’ national energy and climate plans (NECPs) must set out how and when coal will be phased out, but so far, most do not,” said Davor Pehchevski, Balkan energy coordinator at Bankwatch.

“In North Macedonia, closures are being delayed with no action being taken to address pollution in the meantime. Utilities can’t have it both ways—coal plants must either close immediately or comply until they close.”

On September 16, the day before the report was released, North Macedonia's Minister of Environment and Spatial Planning Izet Mexhiti hinted that the country may postpone its coal phase-out deadline by 20 years, extending it to 2050.

The report stresses the urgent need for the Western Balkans to honor commitments made under the Large Combustion Plants Directive and take concrete actions to curb air pollution. “The Western Balkan governments must finally start to govern and stop letting energy utilities endlessly extend their own deadlines,” it says.

Meanwhile, however, governments are still looking to build new coal power capacity. Kostolac B3 in Serbia started test operations in August. Plans for several other new coal power stations have been dropped, but according to Bankwatch Bosnia’s Republika Srpska is also still planning two new plants: Ugljevik III and Gacko II.

“They are unlikely to go ahead due to a lack of available financing, among other reasons, but the ministry responsible for environment keeps issuing permits for Ugljevik III nevertheless,” said Gallop.

As emissions limits decrease further in 2024, larger breaches are anticipated unless immediate action is taken to reduce pollution from coal power plants. The report calls for the European Union to exert more pressure and provide additional support to ensure a sustainable, renewable energy transition in the region.