Monday, September 30, 2024

A river is pushing up Mount Everest’s peak

Mount Everest is about 15 to 50 metres taller than it would otherwise be because of uplift caused by a nearby eroding river gorge, and continues to grow because of it, finds a new study by UCL researchers.

University College London

The study, published in Nature Geoscience, found that erosion from a river network about 75 kilometres from Mount Everest is carving away a substantial gorge. The loss of this landmass is causing the mountain to spring upwards by as much as 2 millimetres a year and has already increased its height by between 15 and 50 metres over the past 89,000 years.

At 8,849 metres high, Mount Everest, also known as Chomolungma in Tibetan or Sagarmāthā in Nepali, is the tallest mountain on Earth, and rises about 250 metres above the next tallest peak in the Himalayas. Everest is considered anomalously high for the mountain range, as the next three tallest peaks – K2, Kangchenjunga and Lhotse – all only differ by about 120 metres from each other.

A significant portion of this anomaly can be explained by an uplifting force caused by pressure from below Earth’s crust after a nearby river eroded away a sizeable amount of rocks and soils. It’s an effect called isostatic rebound, where a section of the Earth’s crust that loses mass flexes and “floats” upwards because the intense pressure of the liquid mantle below is greater than the downward force of gravity after the loss of mass. It’s a gradual process, usually only a few millimetres a year, but over geological timeframes can make a significant difference to the Earth's surface.

The researchers found that because of this process Mount Everest grew by about 15 to 50 metres over the last 89,000 years, since the nearby Arun river merged with the adjacent Kosi river network.

Co-author, PhD student Adam Smith (UCL Earth Sciences) said: “Mount Everest is a remarkable mountain of myth and legend and it’s still growing. Our research shows that as the nearby river system cuts deeper, the loss of material is causing the mountain to spring further upwards.”

Today, the Arun river runs to the east of Mount Everest and merges downstream with the larger Kosi river system. Over millennia, the Arun has carved out a substantial gorge along its banks, washing away billions of tonnes of earth and sediment.

Co-author Dr Jin-Gen Dai of the China University of Geosciences, said: "An interesting river system exists in the Everest region. The upstream Arun river flows east at high altitude with a flat valley. It then abruptly turns south as the Kosi river, dropping in elevation and becoming steeper. This unique topography, indicative of an unsteady state, likely relates to Everest's extreme height."

The uplift is not limited to Mount Everest, and affects neighbouring peaks including Lhotse and Makalu, the world’s fourth and fifth highest peaks respectively. The isostatic rebound boosts the heights of these peaks by a similar amount as it does Everest, though Makalu, located closest to the Arun river, would experience a slightly higher rate of uplift.

Co-author Dr Matthew Fox (UCL Earth Sciences) said: “Mount Everest and its neighbouring peaks are growing because the isostatic rebound is raising them up faster than erosion is wearing them down. We can see them growing by about two millimetres a year using GPS instruments and now we have a better understanding of what’s driving it.”

By looking at the erosion rates of the Arun, the Kosi and other rivers in the region, the researchers were able to determine that about 89,000 years ago the Arun river joined and merged with the Kosi river network, a process called drainage piracy. In doing so, more water was funnelled through the Kosi river, increasing its erosive power and taking more of the landscape’s soils and sediments with it. With more of the land washed away, it triggered an increased rate of uplift, pushing the mountains’ peaks higher and higher.

Lead author Dr Xu Han of China University of Geosciences, who carried out the work while on a China Scholarship Council research visit to UCL, said: “The changing height of Mount Everest really highlights the dynamic nature of the Earth’s surface. The interaction between the erosion of the Arun river and the upward pressure of the Earth’s mantle gives Mount Everest a boost, pushing it up higher than it would otherwise be.”

Notes to Editors

For more information or to speak to the researchers involved, please contact Michael Lucibella, UCL Media Relations. T: +44 (0)75 3941 0389, E: m.lucibella@ucl.ac.uk

Xu Han, Jin-Gen Dai, Adam G. G. Smith, Shi-Ying Xu, Bo-Rong Liu, Cheng-Shan Wang, Matthew Fox, ‘Recent uplift of Chomolungma enhanced by river drainage piracy’ will be published in Nature Geoscience on Monday 30 September 2024, 16:00 UK time, 11:00 US Eastern time and is under a strict embargo until this time.

The DOI for this paper will be 10.1038/s41561-024-01535-w.

After publication, the paper will be available at the following URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01535-w

Additional material

About UCL – London’s Global University

UCL is a diverse global community of world-class academics, students, industry links, external partners, and alumni. Our powerful collective of individuals and institutions work together to explore new possibilities.

Since 1826, we have championed independent thought by attracting and nurturing the world's best minds. Our community of more than 50,000 students from 150 countries and over 16,000 staff pursues academic excellence, breaks boundaries and makes a positive impact on real world problems.

The Times and Sunday Times University of the Year 2024, we are consistently ranked among the top 10 universities in the world and are one of only a handful of institutions rated as having the strongest academic reputation and the broadest research impact.

We have a progressive and integrated approach to our teaching and research – championing innovation, creativity and cross-disciplinary working. We teach our students how to think, not what to think, and see them as partners, collaborators and contributors.

For almost 200 years, we are proud to have opened higher education to students from a wide range of backgrounds and to change the way we create and share knowledge.

We were the first in England to welcome women to university education and that courageous attitude and disruptive spirit is still alive today. We are UCL.

Journal

Nature Geoscience

DOI

10.1038/s41561-024-01535-w

Method of Research

Imaging analysis

Article Title

Recent uplift of Chomolungma enhanced by river drainage piracy

Article Publication Date

30-Sep-2024

GENOCIDE JOE

Israel likely used US-made 2,000-pound bombs to kill Hezbollah leader, analysts say

By Annika Burgess

The IDF has said that more than 80 bombs were dropped over a period of several minutes to kill Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. (AP: Hassan Ammar)

In short:

A US senator has said an American heavy bomb was used in the strikes that killed Hezbollah's leader.

Several analysts also suggested it was likely the US bombs, known as "bunker busters", were involved in the Beirut attack.
What's next?

The US said it stopped shipping the bombs to Israel in May, but experts said the Biden administration was unlikely to "punish" Israel ahead of the presidential elections.

Days after massive Israeli air strikes killed Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah, new information has emerged to piece together how it unfolded.

Footage from the scene shows the blasts levelled multiple high-rise apartment towers in the densely populated suburb known as Dahiyeh.

Other buildings sank into the ground, surrounded by pancaked concrete and twisted metal spanning an area larger than a soccer field.

Although the Pentagon has not confirmed, a US senator who chairs a defence committee has said an American-made 2,000-pound (900-kg) bomb was used in the strikes.

And several analysts say it's likely the US "bunker busters" were involved in the biggest attack to hit Beirut since the start of the current conflict in the Middle East, almost a year ago.

More than 80 bombs dropped

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said they were aware of Nasrallah's whereabouts for months and conducted the air strike to exploit a brief window of opportunity.

Photo shows A large amount of rubble, with smoke also visible rising from it

Israel's attacks in Lebanon will continue for the foreseeable future, a military spokesperson and the country's PM say, despite confirmation Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the country's main adversary there, had been "eliminated".

Two IDF officials told the New York Times that more than 80 bombs were dropped over a period of several minutes to kill the 64-year-old leader of the Iran-backed militant group.

They did not confirm the weight or make of the bombs.

The Israeli military told residents in parts of Beirut's southern suburbs to evacuate late on Friday.

That night, it carried out what the IDF called a "precise strike" on Hezbollah's headquarters, which it said were "embedded under residential buildings in the heart of the Dahiyeh in Beirut".

At least six people were killed, and 91 others injured, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry.

"Bunker buster" bombs penetrate underground, then produce shock waves that topple buildings. (AP: Hassan Ammar)

Among those killed were the commander of Hezbollah’s southern front, Ali Karaki, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp's commander in Lebanon.

AP reported some people at the scene on Sunday were still searching for missing relatives.
US-made bombs appear in IDF video

The IDF released videos and photos following attacks it said showed the warplanes that took part in the strike.

Analysts who examined the footage for the Washington Post said it appeared the fighter jets were carrying multiple 2,000-pound-class bombs, some of which were US-made BLU-109s.

They added that they were equipped with Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) guidance kits, which convert "dumb bombs" into precision-guided munitions that can attack a specific target.

Michael Shoebridge, director and founder of Strategic Analysis Australia, agreed with the analysis.

"The pictures released by the IDF show F-15s equipped with those heavy bombs," he told the ABC.

"And you can see the strike is consistent with those aircraft having used those weapons."

People gather to mourn the death of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, in Tehran.

US officials said they did not know Israel was going to launch an air strike aimed at killing Nasrallah.

But President Joe Biden praised the move as "a measure of justice for his many victims".

Hezbollah has been designated as a terrorist group by the US and Australia.
US halted heavy bomb supply

The US is Israel's longtime ally and biggest arms supplier.

What we know about US pause on heavy bomb supply to Israel

Photo shows A Palestinian man stands looking through a opening in a building, watching as smoke rises after Israeli strikes

The US acknowledges its 2,000-pound bombs cause civilian deaths in Gaza and will pause supply on a shipment of the heavy weapons to Israel over concerns about their use in Rafah.

In May, the Biden administration announced it had paused a shipment of US-made 2,000-pound bombs to Israel because of concerns over civilian safety in Gaza.

Mr Biden acknowledged that the bombs, which military experts say turn "earth into liquid", had killed civilians.

Over the weekend, Senator Mark Kelly, chair of the Senate Armed Services Airland Subcommittee, said Israel had used a US 2,000-pound Mark 84 series bomb in the strikes that killed Nasrallah.

"We see more use of guided munitions, JDAMs, and we continue to provide those weapons," Mr Kelly said in an interview with NBC.

"That 2,000-pound bomb that was used, that's a Mark 84 series bomb, to take out Nasrallah."

Neither the Israeli military nor the Pentagon have commented on the weapons used in the attack.

Although the US announced that it had halted shipments of heavy bombs to Israel, Mr Shoebridge said Israel would likely have a stockpile.

Bombs designed to explode underground

The Mark 84, or BLU-117, is the largest in the Mark 80 series of weapons known as "bunker busters".

It has a lethal fragmentation that can extend for up to 365 metres.

Malcolm Davies, senior analyst in defence capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), said there were different variations of the heavy bombs.

But he was confident Friday's strikes in the Dahiyeh neighbourhood used bunker busters.

"The high-yield, 2,000-pound weapons were designed to penetrate deep underground where Nasrallah was hiding with his cronies," he told the ABC.

"So I think that that's how the Israelis did this."

The bombs slice through concrete, then explode underground.

The explosions then create shock waves that immediately collapse structures above.

"Anyone who's not killed by the explosion on the ground is then killed by the rubble falling on them," Dr Davis said.

Sizes of the US-made MK 84 and MK 82 bombs. (ABC News: Digital Graphics team)
Largest Israeli strike

Trevor Ball, a former explosive ordnance disposal technician for the US Army, told the Washington Post that videos of the aftermath showed it was possible dozens of 2,000-pound bombs were used.

Mr Shoebridge said in kinetic terms, the strikes that killed Nasrallah were the largest single strike by Israel over the past year.

And although the US had voiced concerns about heavy bombs being used in Gaza, the US would likely argue that the strikes were "a clearly targeted strike which had the intended effect".

"Despite its the devastation, this was a precisely targeted attack that killed the most senior leader of this long-term terrorist organisation, plus a bunch of his associated most senior leaders," Mr Shoebridge said.

"I would suspect that the US government position would be that this was a proportional use of force."

More than 1,000 people have been killed and thousands more injured as Israel has ramped up its attacks on Hezbollah over the last two weeks. (AP: Hassan Ammar)

Israel and Hezbollah are locked in their most intense round of fighting in decades, teetering on the brink of all-out war.

They have been trading fire across the border since the start of the war in Gaza, which was triggered by the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas militants.

Hamas militants killed about 1,200 people during the October 7 terrorist attacks on Israel, and took at least 250 hostages back to Gaza, according to Israeli authorities.
Nasrallah turned Islamist militia into political force

Photo shows A man speaks into a microphone with his hand in the air

The leader of the region's most powerful militia and Iran's strongest ally is gone, and Hezbollah, the group he headed, has been decimated by intense Israel attacks. But that doesn't mean it will die with him.

Israel responded by invading the Gaza Strip in an ongoing conflict that has claimed the lives of more than 40,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza health ministry.

Over the past two weeks, Israel has ramped up its attacks on Hezbollah, carrying out strikes across Lebanon that have killed more than 1,000 people and injured thousands more, according to official government updates from Beirut.

Israel says it aims to make its northern areas of the country safe for 60,000 residents to return to their homes after a year of Hezbollah bombings.
'Israel's not going to stop'

With the US presidential elections looming, experts say it is unlikely the Biden administration will take any further action against Israel.

Hussein Ibish, senior resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States in Washington, said restricting weapons sales to Israel could only go so far.
Israel's long history of assassination plots

Photo shows An injured person is wheeled on a stretcher

While Israel's alleged involvement in the pager and hand-held radio attacks in Lebanon may never be confirmed, the country's security and intelligence agencies have been linked to a string of assassination plots over the years.

Israel already rejected global calls for a 21-day ceasefire, instead vowing to "continue fighting with full force".

And even after Nasrallah's death, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel's attacks across Lebanon would not be slowing down.

"The United States and its allies were pushing very hard for a ceasefire and Israel decided 'no, they are just going to go ahead with major escalations anyway because it served their interests'," Professor Ibish told ABC's RN Breakfast.

"The United States is not going to punish Israel five weeks before an election."

Dr Davis said even though Israel had already taken out several of Hezbollah's senior and mid-level leadership, it appeared they were determined to "finish the job".

"They've cut the head off the snake … but Israel's not going to stop," he said.

"So if there's no ceasefire, and no peace settlements, it's just going to keep going."

Africa: It's Time for Rich Polluters to Pay for the Climate Crisis They Created

WFP

Azimi Abubakar, 50, a resident of Gasamu, wades through the floodwater in Jakusko LGA of Yobe State, Nigeria, on 01 October 2022.

30 September 2024

Inter Press Service

By Hilda Flavia Nakabuye

New York — The world is standing at a critical juncture. Climate change is not just a future threat--it's here, and it's already devastating lives. From record-breaking heat waves to floods and landslides, the planet is sending us clear signals that we cannot afford to ignore.

But for many of us in the Global South, this crisis is not new. It is a daily reality that we have been living with for years, despite contributing almost nothing to the problem.

I am from Uganda, a country that contributes less than 0.02% of global CO2 emissions and ranks as the 36th most vulnerable country to the impacts of climate change. I grew up on a farm, and I saw firsthand how changing weather patterns--flooded roads and mudslides--kept me from attending school.

What was once a reliable planting season turned into a guessing game of whether the rains would come at all or whether they'd wash away everything in their path.

Our plantation didn't survive. Neither did many others in my region. And in the end, it wasn't just our farm that was lost--it was our livelihood, our food security, and for me, an entire year of education.

What frustrates me most is that Africa, a continent rich in resources and biodiversity, continues to bear the brunt of a crisis we did not create. Our people are paying with their lives and futures for the emissions and actions of the world's wealthiest.

According to Oxfam, the richest 1% emit as much planet-heating pollution as the poorest two-thirds of humanity and their carbon emissions are enough to cause 1.3 million excess deaths due to heat. The richest continue to be indifferent to the fact that it is the poorest and frontline communities who pay the price.

According to UNICEF, girls worldwide spend 200 million hours every single day collecting water. Think about that for a moment--200 million hours. The climate crisis is making this burden even heavier.

As water sources dry up, girls are forced to walk further and further, giving up education and opportunities to secure the most basic human need. By 2030, water insecurity is expected to displace 700 million people globally--most of them girls and women. This is not just a climate crisis; it's a social justice crisis.

Africa, despite its negligible carbon footprint, is on the frontlines of environmental disasters, while the fossil fuel industry continues to rake in record profits. This system is built on injustice. A system where the few benefit while the rest of us suffer. It's a system where the powerful can pollute, and the poor pay the price.

But it doesn't have to be this way.

In Uganda, we're organizing. I founded Fridays for Future Uganda to demand climate justice and to fight for a sustainable future where communities can thrive, not just survive. And we're not alone. Across the world, movements like Make Rich Polluters Pay are calling for those responsible for the climate crisis--the fossil fuel giants and the ultra-wealthy--to be held accountable.

The solutions are within reach, but it requires the political will to act. Right now, in New York, there's a bill sitting on Governor Kathy Hochul's desk that could set a powerful precedent. The Climate Change Superfund Act would force major fossil fuel companies to pay their fair share for climate damages in the state.

Governor Hochul has the power to sign this into law and ensure that everyday people aren't left footing the bill for the climate crisis. We need similar actions across the globe.

This November, at COP29 in Baku, leaders from the Global North, including the United States, must agree on a new goal for climate finance that includes taxing the ultra-wealthy and fossil fuel companies. Rich countries, whose emissions have fueled the climate crisis, must step up and take the lead. It's time for rich polluters to pay for the destruction they've caused.

We cannot wait any longer. The climate crisis is here. The people who have contributed the least to this crisis are the ones suffering the most. We need to hold those responsible to account and demand that they pay for the loss and damage we are experiencing.

The future we want is equal--one where renewable energy powers our economies, where girls are in classrooms instead of walking miles for water, and where communities in Uganda, New York, and beyond can thrive.

I urge you to take action. There are many ways you can do that. One is to support the Make Rich Polluters Pay campaign by signing the petition and raising your voice. Climate justice isn't just a demand--it's our right. Together, we can build a better, fairer future for everyone.

Hilda Flavia Nakabuye is a Ugandan climate and environmental rights activist and founder of Fridays for Future Uganda.

IPS UN Bureau

Africa: Ruto Urges United African Push for Fair Climate Financing At COP29

WFP
Azimi Abubakar, 50, a resident of Gasamu, wades through the floodwater in Jakusko LGA of Yobe State, Nigeria

30 September 2024
Business Day Africa (Nairobi)

African leaders must present a united front at the upcoming United Nations climate change conference to demand a fairer global climate financing system, Kenyan President William Ruto said.

Speaking at a meeting of the Committee of African Heads of State and Government on Climate Change (CAHOSCC), held alongside the 79th United Nations General Assembly in New York, Ruto urged the continent to push for reforms that would increase investment in Africa's energy transition and boost its climate adaptation efforts.

"The focus at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, should be on securing an equitable climate financing mechanism that addresses the needs of Africa and other developing nations," said Dr Ruto, who chairs CAHOSCC.

He emphasised that the current level of investment--just three percent globally in energy transition--falls far short of what is needed to combat the worsening impacts of climate change.

President Ruto's comments come as African nations face mounting climate challenges, from droughts to floods, with the continent contributing the least to global carbon emissions yet suffering the most severe consequences.

He underscored the need for investments in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, green transport, and nature-based solutions to ensure Africa's transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient future.

"These investments are not only vital for Africa but also the entire global community," Ruto said.

The Kenyan president also stressed the importance of debt sustainability and reforms in the international financial system, highlighting the strain high debt servicing costs place on African nations' ability to fund climate-resilience projects.

"As climate-related shocks increase in frequency and severity, coupled with high interest rates and credit downgrades, refinancing becomes more expensive, and governments' capacity to invest in green resilience is constrained," he added.

The CAHOSCC meeting, attended by African Union Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat and Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, set the stage for Africa's strategy ahead of COP29.

Mr Mahamat echoed Ruto's call for unity, stressing the importance of a cohesive African stance to secure increased climate financing.

Earlier, Dr Ruto hosted the inaugural Steering Committee Meeting of the African Green Industrialisation Initiative (AGII), a platform aimed at unlocking investments for large-scale green industrial and infrastructure projects across the continent.

The initiative seeks to foster partnerships between African leaders and stakeholders in finance, industry, and philanthropy.

"This initiative aligns value chains across the continent and is key to driving Africa's economic transformation through green industrialisation," Ruto said.

The African Union has warned that some countries on the continent have already experienced GDP losses of up to five percent due to the effects of climate change, underlining the urgent need for concrete action at COP29.

CLIMATE CRISIS

Philippines supertyphoon: North braces for 215 km/h gusts brought by Krathon, local code ‘Julian’

Signal No. 4 raised over northern islands, thunderstorms in Manila, surrounding provinces

Signal No. 4 is the second-highest alert level and indicates extremely strong winds and potential devastation.

IT IS MOVING TOWARD TAIWAN

Published: September 30, 2024

Jay Hilotin, Senior Assistant Editor

Forecasters warned the tropical cyclone Krathon could further intensify into "supertyphoon" category, by tomorrow, Tuesday.Image Credit: Himawawi-9

Manila: A powerful typhoon packing winds of 175 kilometres per hour (km/h) near the centre and gustiness of up to 215 km/h is threatening a number of Philippine provinces on mainland Luzon and the northern islands, forecasters said.

The Pagasa weather bureau said "Krathon" (local code: "Julian") may make landfall over Balintang Island or Batanes on Monday (September 30, 2024).

Supertyphoon

Forecasters also warned the tropical cyclone could further intensify into "supertyphoon" category, as it was seen moving west-northwestward at 10 kph.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) Number 4 was already raised over Batanes and the northern portion of Babuyan Islands, home to about 19,000 people.

Signal No. 4 is the second-highest alert level and indicates extremely strong winds and potential devastation.

TYPHOON BELT

On average, the Philippines is hit by 20 typhoons annually, with about 5 to 7 of them being particularly destructive.

The typhoon season in the Philippines typically occurs from June to November, with peak activity usually between July and October.

During these months, the country experiences the majority of its typhoons due to the southwest monsoon (locally known as "Habagat").

However, typhoons can still form outside this period, as the Philippines is located in a region prone to tropical cyclones year-round.

Manila, Central Luzon affected

A weather bulletin issued at 2.13 pm, meanwhile, warned of rainshowers, lightning over Central Luzon and Calabarzon.

Moderate to heavy rainshowers with lightning and strong winds are expected over Pampanga, Laguna, Quezon, Metro Manila and Batangas within the next 2-3 hours, Pagasa stated.

The above conditions are being experienced in Zambales (Santa Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc), Bataan (Dinalupihan, Balanga, Abucay, Samal, Orani, Hermosa, Morong, Bagac), Bulacan (Dona Remedios Trinidad), Tarlac (Moncada, Anao, San Manuel), Nueva Ecija (Nampicuan, Cuyapo, Talugtug), Cavite (Silang, Amadeo, Dasmarinas, General Trias) and Rizal (Pililla, Jala-Jala, Tanay, Cardona, Binangonan).

Hazards

“All are advised to take precautionary measures against the impacts associated with these hazards which include flash floods and landslides,” Pagasa warned, adding the weather pattern may persist within 2 hours and may affect nearby areas.

In an earlier bulletin issued on Monday, Pagasa said the following areas in Luzon are under the following Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals:

TCWS No. 4
Batanes;
Northern portion of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Island, Calayan Island)

TCWS No. 3
The rest of Babuyan Islands;
Northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana)

TCWS No. 2
The rest of mainland Cagayan;
Apayao;
Northern portion of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong, Licuan-Baay, San Juan, Lagayan, Lagangilang, Dolores, Daguioman, Danglas, La Paz);
Northern portion Kalinga (Pinukpuk, Balbalan, City of Tabuk, Rizal);
Ilocos Norte; and
The northern portion of Ilocos Sur (Sinait, Cabugao)

TCWS No. 1
the rest of Ilocos Sur; La Union; Pangasinan;
the rest of Abra; the rest of Kalinga; Ifugao;
Mountain Province;
Benguet;
Isabela;
Nueva Vizcaya;
Quirino;
Aurora;
The northern eastern portions of Nueva Ecija (Cuyapo, Rizal, Laur, Pantabangan, Science City of Muñoz, Gabaldon, Carranglan, San Jose City, Lupao, Talugtug, Bongabon, Llanera, Talavera, Palayan City, General Mamerto Natividad); and Polillo Islands.

“Julian (Krathon) is forecast to move generally west northwestward over the Balintang Channel today and pass very close to Balintang Island and Batanes. A landfall scenario over these areas remains likely. Nevertheless, this typhoon will be at its closest to Batanes and Babuyan Islands this morning through afternoon,” Pagasa said.

“Julian (Krathon) will continue intensifying and may reach super typhoon category tomorrow at the start of its recurvature. Interaction with the rugged terrain of Taiwan will trigger a weakening trend prior to landfall, although Julian is forecast to remain as a typhoon until it exits the PAR region,” it added.

Thunderstorm warnings:

2:13 pm (Monday, Sept 30): Pagasa issued Thunderstorm Advisory No. 17 for several regions, including Metro Manila.

Affected Areas: Pampanga, Laguna, Quezon, Metro Manila, and Batangas can expect moderate to heavy rain with lightning and strong winds within the next 2-3 hours.

Additional Information: Similar conditions are already occurring in parts of Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Cavite, and Rizal. These areas may experience flash floods and landslides.

Stay informed:

Monitor Pagasa’s website and social media channels for the latest updates on Typhoon Julian (Krathon) and other weather disturbances. Take necessary precautions based on the warnings issued by Pagasa.

Central Asian migrants in Western Europe

In view of the growing difficulties in Russia, it is becoming increasingly important to find effective alternatives, considering that money from working abroad constitutes a very important slice of the GDP of Central Asian countries, ranging from 10% in Uzbekistan to 40% in Tajikistan. An issue that is intertwined with the question of Afghans in Germany.

Astana (AsiaNews) - Russia's political situation continues to complicate the lives of Central Asian labour migrants, and under these conditions the possibility for Western countries to influence the region's economy, including through agreements on legal migration, increases. On the other hand, pressure from sovereignist forces, which are against this enlargement, is growing in Great Britain and somewhat throughout the European Union. During his recent visit to Astana, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz concluded agreements in this field, but without divulging the details.

After negotiations with the President of Uzbekistan, Šavkat Mirziyoyev, Scholz confined himself to stating that the agreement ‘will allow for the indispensable immigration of qualified personnel, which we in Germany are in great need of’. On his way to Samarkand, the chancellor also agreed on ‘simple and necessary procedures’ so that ‘those who have to go back really do go back’, an addition evidently for the internal use of German public opinion.

Germany is just one of the many countries where immigration arouses reactions and tensions throughout society, which after all is one of the most effective tools for developing relations with Central Asia, whose strategic importance on a geopolitical level grows in proportion to the protracted Russian war in Ukraine. Kazakhstan-born Belarusian expert and publicist Jan Matusevič observes that ‘the German government is faced with an issue that is not easy to solve’, trying to harness anti-migrant tendencies in the face of recent electoral victories by the extreme right, while at the same time solving the problems of labour shortages, one of the biggest brakes on the country's economic growth.

Given the growing difficulties in Russia, it is becoming increasingly important for migrants to find effective alternatives, considering that money from working abroad constitutes a very important slice of the Central Asian countries' GDP, ranging from 10% in Uzbekistan to 40% in Tajikistan. In the UK, however, there have been quite violent demonstrations against migration in the past month, protesting against plans to attract thousands of workers from Central Asia. The demands in the various British regions are very high, and the brokerage agencies take advantage of this with numerous scams and breaches of the law.

Salaries in Western countries are two to three times higher for migrants than what they can earn in Russia, but the flow is still rather small, even compared to countries with a more traditional relationship with this region, such as South Korea. Currently, according to Die Zeit, 13,700 Uzbeks live in Germany, of whom only 200 are in an irregular situation, a minimal figure compared to the total of 225,000 migrants to be repatriated. The agreement between Scholz and Mirziyoyev should make the whole situation much easier to manage, similar to similar agreements between Berlin and other countries such as Morocco, Kenya and Georgia.

German researcher Beate Eschment, from the Berlin centre for international studies ZOiS, notes that ‘debates on migration today are very confused and irrational’, and do not allow governments to take effective positions, considering that ‘we absolutely need workers, and these can only come from abroad’. Certain factors could make the issue even more dramatic, not only because of the ‘migrantophobia’ of the Russians and conservative forces in Europe and America, but also because of particular contingencies such as the huge number of Afghans that Germany wants at all costs to send back to Kabul.

Since Germany and other European countries do not wish to have official relations with the Taliban, Uzbekistan could offer a very feasible way out, as Tashkent has no problem making deals with the Afghans, and a win-win exchange could be realised. Central Asia expects a more convinced support from the West, overcoming fears and hesitations in this complex geopolitical phase.

Photo: Flickr / Rasande Tyskar

Monoskop.orgmonoskop.org/images/9/95/Hardt_Michael_Negri_Antonio_Empire.pdf

EMPIRE - Monoskop

Hardt, Michael. Empire / Michael Hardt and Antonio Negri. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-674-25121-0 (cloth). ISBN 0-674-00671 ...

Rebels-library.orgrebels-library.org/files/multitude.pdf

MULTITUDE - Rebel Studies Library

... Hardt and Antonio Negri, 2004. Allrights reserved. UBRARY OF CONGRESSCATALOGING IN PUBUCATION DATA. Hardt, Michael. Multitude : war and democracy in the Age of ...

Did Chinese citizens account for 60% of the crimes in Japan?

Verdict: False

By Dong Zhe for Asia Fact Check Lab
2024.09.30
Taipei, Taiwan

Did Chinese citizens account for 60% of the crimes in Japan?

Illustration by AFCL

A claim has been shared in Chinese-language social media posts that Chinese people account for 60% of all crimes committed in Japan.

But the claim is false. According to official data from 2023, Chinese nationals were involved in 1.123% of prosecutions in Japan, and they made up 1.135% of all suspects.

The claim was shared on X, formerly known as Twitter, on Sep. 21.

“Chinese people already account for three-fifths of all criminal offenses in Japan. Do you think the Chinese should be driven back to China?” the claim reads in part.

The post did not provide further details on the source of the data.

1 (14).png — Screenshot of the false post on X.

The claim began to circulate online after the Sept. 18 stabbing and subsequent death of a 10-year-old Japanese schoolboy in the Chinese city of Shenzhen by a Chinese man.

The incident ignited a wave of anger in Japan, with critics accusing China of fostering anti-Japanese sentiment through its education system and state-controlled media.

But the claim about the crime rate for Chinese people in Japan is false.

Official data

A report from Japan’s National Police Agency, NPA, in June 2024 shows that in 2023, there were 269,550 criminal prosecutions and 183,269 suspects in total.

Out of those, 2,080 Chinese nationals were involved in 3,028 cases. This count does not include individuals from Taiwan and Hong Kong.

The figures mean Chinese nationals accounted for just 1.123% of total prosecutions and 1.135% of all suspects.

When looking only at cases involving foreigners, Chinese nationals were involved in 19.5% of them, and they made up 21.4% of the suspects, ranking second in the number of cases and first in the number of suspects.

2 (5).png

3 (5).png — Proportion of the number of criminal cases in Japan involving foreign nationals (top) and foreign suspects (bottom) in 2023, according to data from the NPA. (AFCL)

Similar annual statistics from the NPA, going back to 2014, show that the proportion of cases involving Chinese nationals in Japan has never exceeded 1.4% during this period.

Change in annual percentage of criminal cases involving Chinese people and Chinese suspects in Japan over the past ten years. (AFCL)

The X user who made the claim has not responded to AFCL’s inquiries.

Translated by Shen Ke. Edited by Shen Ke and Taejun Kang.

Asia Fact Check Lab (AFCL) was established to counter disinformation in today’s complex media environment. We publish fact-checks, media-watches and in-depth reports that aim to sharpen and deepen our readers’ understanding of current affairs and public issues. If you like our content, you can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram and X.

Asia Fact Check Lab

RFA

Myanmar junta raids Shan state online scam center, detains hundreds

AUSTRALIA

Science ‘has critical role to play in drought preparedness’

By Emma Koehn in Melbourne

Australian academy says draft government drought plan should boost coordination of scientific knowledge and expertise

A national plan to support communities through future drought conditions must acknowledge the role science and research play in helping Australia prepare for extreme conditions, the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry has been told.

A consultation closed on 20 September on “a new Australian government drought plan” that outlines the investments that will be made in data tools and policies to support families financially and emotionally through future drought conditions.

The Australian Academy of Science weighed in on the blueprint, arguing that it must not ignore the role of science. “Science has a critical role in drought preparedness and a recognition of this should be included in the plan. The global science network is continually developing new tools and knowledge that offer important opportunities for us to build drought and climate resilience into our production systems,” the group said.

Better coordination

In a statement to Research Professional News, the academy said the plan was an opportunity for the government to “articulate an approach to strategic coordination on science relevant to drought and the government’s policy response to build, maintain and grow the pipeline of science and research capabilities required to enable drought preparedness”.

“This should include the science and scientific capability that underpins our fundamental understanding of drought processes and drought resilience,” the group said. “Such coordination is essential for maintaining and enhancing Australia’s drought science expertise, ensuring that critical scientific advances are effectively integrated into drought preparedness and resilience.”

Australia has long invested in projects to help understand climate patterns and forecast the impacts of low rainfall, but this work is completed across a range of separate organisations, including government departments, universities and research institutes.

“A new drought plan provides an opportunity to improve coordination between the wide variety of mechanisms in Australia for supporting research related to drought,” the academy wrote in its submission to the consultation.

Promoting innovation

The draft plan includes a focus on “promoting innovation and adoption of new technologies”, including programmes to test climate-resilient farming practices.

“This work will complement a range of initiatives across all levels of government, as well as the private sector and community organisations, that strengthen adaptation. This includes delivering science, research and evidence-based tools,” the draft report says.

The department will review all feedback on the proposal and release a final national plan by the end of 2024.

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment