SPACE/COSMOS

 

Should We Be Worried About Solar Storms?

By Felicity Bradstock - May 09, 2025

• Solar storms can disrupt power grids, cause radio blackouts, and endanger nuclear facilities, with past events like the Carrington Event serving as stark reminders.

• Despite growing technological advancements, predicting solar storms remains highly unreliable, leaving critical infrastructure vulnerable.

• Artificial intelligence is emerging as a potential tool for better forecasting, but current preparations for major geomagnetic storms remain insufficient.

Solar radiation storms happen when a large-scale magnetic eruption from the sun accelerates charged particles in the solar atmosphere to very high velocities. This can cause protons to get accelerated to large fractions of the speed of light, meaning they can travel the 150 million km from the sun to the Earth in just tens of minutes. Once they reach the Earth, the rapidly moving protons break through the magnetosphere that shields Earth from lower-energy charged particles to land near the north and south poles.

A major disturbance in the Earth’s magnetic field, known as a geomagnetic storm, can cause radio blackouts, power outages, and beautiful auroras. However, they are not generally harmful to humans as the planet’s magnetic field and atmosphere protect people from the worst of these storms.

Some past solar storms include the 1989 Quebec storm, which knocked out the province’s power for nine hours; a 1972 storm, which triggered dozens of mines off the coast of Vietnam where the U.S. military was stationed; and the 1859 geomagnetic storm, known as the Carrington Event. Carrington caused the aurora borealis to shine so bright that it could be seen as far south as Colombia. It was caused by a wave of magnetized plasma, which was launched from the Sun and travelled at a speed of over 2,000 km per hour before hitting Earth, prompting the Earth’s magnetic field to release terawatts of power in response.

The risk of a major solar storm now is much higher than over a decade ago as the Sun is reaching its peak activity cycle, increasing the likelihood of a geomagnetic storm. The main difficulty in mitigating the risk of a solar storm is the lack of ability to predict when it might happen. Predictions for the solar cycle vary significantly, with some scientists putting the odds of a roughly Carrington-level storm at about 1 percent, while others have gone as high as around 25 percent.

Nour Rawafi, the project scientist for NASA’s Parker Solar Probe mission, explained, “Honestly, we don’t know” how likely it is to be hit by a similarly severe storm. Rawafi believes that it does not really matter, as while humans will be fine most of the time, it will only take one incident to change everything, and it is only a matter of time. “There is no way around it… We are living with the Sun,” stressed Rawafi.

In October 2024, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a solar storm warning after an outburst from the sun was detected for an event that could have affected power grids. NOAA notified power plant operators and orbiting spacecraft to prepare for the storm, as well as alerted the Federal Emergency Management Agency – the organisation that manages post-disaster response - about potential power disruptions. While the geomagnetic storm resulted in a widely visible aurora borealis, it had little additional impact. However, the NOAA warning suggests just how difficult it is for scientists to predict the potential impact of a storm.

One of the biggest worries is the lack of preparedness for a solar storm in the modern age. When a geomagnetic storm hit New York in 1921, it knocked out the city's lights. However, if a strong storm occurs in the present day, it could have a more detrimental effect due to the widespread reliance on technology. Power-grid infrastructure is extremely vulnerable to the impact of solar storms, for example, and long-term blackouts could cause safety issues at nuclear facilities.

If nuclear plants lost their off-site electricity for months at a time, it could prevent them from operating safely. While emergency diesel generators could power cooling pumps for several days, any longer blackouts could spell trouble. No nuclear plant in the U.S. has ever lost off-site electricity for more than a week. In 2012, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission warned that a severe solar storm could collapse the country’s power grids and may even lead to reactor core damage at multiple nuclear plants. The unknown risk of geomagnetic storms suggests that nuclear plants and other at-risk facilities must do more to mitigate the potential risk of a solar event.

The main cause for concern with solar storms is the lack of understanding and predictability about these types of events. The world is largely unprepared for geomagnetic storms to hit Earth and potentially trigger widespread, long-term blackouts. However, researchers are growing increasingly optimistic that artificial intelligence might help them to better understand and plan for these types of scenarios, helping to mitigate the risk of solar storms.

A recent journal article showed that one forecasting tool was able to predict the orientation of the magnetic field by assessing data from the four hours of a storm. The combination of the human sighting of a solar event and the use of machines to analyse data could provide greater insight into the potential impact of a storm. However, we are still largely in the dark when it comes to solar storms, and both governments and energy companies must be prepared for such an eventuality to occur at any moment. 

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

Tough microbes found in NASA cleanrooms hold clues to space survival and biotech

Discovery of 26 novel bacterial species in NASA spacecraft assembly facilities indicate the potential for microbial persistence in extraterrestrial environments

King Abdullah University of Science & Technology (KAUST)

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Alexandre Rosado and Junia Schultz.

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Credit: Jayson Ricamara (KAUST).

A new study by scientists at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory and several institutes across India and Saudi Arabia has reported 26 novel bacterial species growing inside cleanrooms associated with NASA space missions. These unknown and newly described species carry genetic traits associated with resilience to extreme environments such as those found in space, highlighting the importance of rigorous contamination control to prevent unintentional microbial transfer during space missions. The study can be read in Microbiome.

Spacecraft are assembled in cleanrooms, which are highly specialized facilities engineered to maintain exceptionally low levels of dust and microorganisms. These controlled environments are extreme in their own right, with tightly regulated airflow, temperature, and humidity that inhibit microbial survival. However, some microorganisms – extremophiles – thrive in such environments. 

"Our study aimed to understand the risk of extremophiles being transferred in space missions and to identify which microorganisms might survive the harsh conditions of space. This effort is pivotal for monitoring the risk of microbial contamination and safeguarding against unintentional colonization of exploring planets," explained King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) Professor Alexandre Rosado, the lead KAUST researcher on the project and a contributor to several NASA working groups on planetary protection and space microbiology.  

The scientists did a comprehensive analysis of the microorganisms growing in the NASA cleanrooms, finding that many of the new species possessed genes that made them resilient to decontamination and radiation. Some of the discovered genes were associated with DNA repair, the detoxification of harmful molecules, and improved metabolism, all of which increased the species' survivability. 

Moreover, these genes could lead to new biotechnologies that benefit food preservation and medicine. 

"These findings not only raise important consideration for planetary protection but also open the door for biotechnological innovation,” said Junia Schultz, a postdoctoral fellow at KAUST who was the first author of the study. “Space travel provides an opportunity to study microorganisms that possess relevant stress-resistance genes. The genes identified in these newly discovered bacterial species could be engineered for applications in medicine, food preservation, and other industries."   

In addition, the study assists NASA with anticipating the type of bacteria astronauts will encounter in their space missions and in developing strategies to mitigate microbial contamination in cleanrooms.  

“KAUST’s collaboration with NASA represents a groundbreaking alliance driving the frontiers of space science and astrobiology,” said Dr. Kasthuri Venkateswaran, retired Senior Research Scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and a lead author of the study. “Together, we are unraveling the mysteries of microbes that withstand the extreme conditions of space —organisms with the potential to revolutionize the life sciences, bioengineering, and interplanetary exploration. This partnership not only supports Saudi Arabia’s ambitious vision through the Saudi Space Agency but also reinforces KAUST’s emergence as a global leader in microbial and space biology research.” 

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Journal

Microbiome

DOI

10.1186/s40168-025-02082-1 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Genomic insights into!novel extremotolerant bacteria isolated from!the!NASA phoenix mission spacecraft assembly cleanrooms

Article Publication Date

12-May-2025

Glass beads offer a window into the Moon’s hidden depths

An international study offers new insights into the Moon’s history and provides a better understanding of what lies beneath its cratered surface.

Curtin University

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An international study featuring scientists from Curtin University’s School of Earth and Planetary Sciences and Space Science and Technology Centre offers new insights into the Moon’s history and provide a better understanding of what lies beneath its cratered surface.

 

Researchers from Curtin University, Nanjing University and The Australian National University analysed tiny, green glass beads collected by Chang’e-5 — the Chinese National Space Administration mission to the Moon.

 

Typically, lunar glass beads are formed from impacts that melt surface rocks.

 

However, the beads in this study were found to have unusually high levels of magnesium, which Professor Alexander Nemchin from the School of Earth and Planetary Sciences said was evidence of a potentially deeper origin.

 

“These high-magnesium glass beads may have formed when an asteroid smashed into rocks that originated from the mantle deep within the Moon,” Professor Nemchin said.

 

“This is exciting, because we’ve never sampled the mantle directly before: the tiny glass beads offer us a glimpse of the Moon’s hidden interior.”

 

Co-author Professor Tim Johnson, also from Curtin’s School of Earth and Planetary Sciences, said the chemistry of the beads was unlike that of lunar surface rocks sampled previously.

 

Professor Johnson said the rocks may have been brought up from the Moon’s mantle by a massive impact.

 

“One such event could be the formation of the Imbrium Basin, which is a huge crater formed more than 3 billion years ago,” Professor Johnson said.

 

“Remote sensing has shown the area around the basin's edge contains the kind of minerals that match the glass bead chemistry.

 

“This is a big step forward in understanding how the Moon evolved internally; if these samples really are pieces of the mantle, it tells us that impacts can excavate otherwise inaccessible mantle material to the surface”

 

Study lead Professor Xiaolei Wang from Nanjing University said the discovery could have wider implications and influence future missions to the Moon and other planets.

 

“Understanding how the Moon’s interior is made helps us compare it to Earth and other planets,” Professor Wang said.

 

“It could even guide future missions, whether robotic or human, that aim to explore the Moon’s deep geology.”

 

‘A potential mantle origin for precursor rocks of high-Mg impact glass beads in Chang’e-5 soil’ was published in Science Advances.

---

Journal

Science Advances

DOI

10.1126/sciadv.adv9019 

Method of Research

Observational study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

A potential mantle origin for precursor rocks of high-Mg impact glass beads in Chang’e-5 soil

Article Publication Date

9-May-2025

 

Whitecap, Veren Complete $15B Merger to Form Canada’s 7th Largest Oil Producer

By Editorial Dept -  Oilprice.com   May 12, 2025

Whitecap Resources Inc. has officially completed its $15-billion merger with Veren Inc., creating Canada’s seventh-largest oil and gas producer by output. The combined company will operate under the Whitecap name and management team.

With this deal, Whitecap becomes the largest landholder in the Montney and Duvernay shale plays across Alberta and British Columbia and now holds a major light oil position in Saskatchewan — making it Saskatchewan’s second-largest oil producer.

The company expects to produce 295,000–300,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) this year, with a planned capital spend of around $2 billion. Post-merger, Whitecap projects total production capacity of 370,000 boe/d.

In early steps to optimize its portfolio, Whitecap announced it had already secured $270 million through the sale of non-core assets — including medium oil production in southwest Saskatchewan and a minority stake in a natural gas facility in northwest Alberta.

The merger received overwhelming shareholder approval, with 88.7% of Whitecap and 99.8% of Veren shareholders voting in favour. Veren’s shares will be delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange.

CEO Grant Fagerheim acknowledged there will be job cuts due to integration, citing the difficult decisions required when combining two large, experienced teams. The company anticipates over $200 million in cost synergies.

Fagerheim emphasized that Whitecap has stress-tested the business at US$50 WTI through 2026 and remains focused on delivering strong per-share returns for shareholders amid market volatility.

 

Will China Take Advantage of Trump's Climate Cuts?

By Haley Zaremba - May 10, 2025,

• Trump’s decision to cut climate financing to zero creates a vacuum that China is ready to fill with green energy investments in developing nations.

• With U.S. tariffs straining trade relations, China is leveraging its Belt and Road Initiative to establish dominance in clean energy markets across Southeast Asia.

• Experts suggest that China's expanding influence may reshape global climate diplomacy as the U.S. steps back from its commitments.

In November of last year, at the annual COP climate conference, global leaders agreed that in order to advance progress toward climate goals, developed countries would need to collectively provide a minimum of $300 billion in climate finance to the world’s poorest countries by the year 2035. Accordingly, at the end of Joe Biden’s presidential term, he announced a record $11 billion climate finance provision. 

Now, President Donald Trump has slashed climate finance down to nothing, in a move that will have far-reaching consequences for developing countries and for the planet. For at least one country, however, the move may be a major economic opportunity. China is already pouncing on the opportunity to take the United States’ place as a green energy investor in emerging economies. 

Ironically, as Trump takes aim at China with 145% tariffs, he is opening a door for Beijing to strengthen its flatlining economy via its already prodigious trade relations with other countries around the world. Already, Chinese President Xi Jinping has done a tour through Southeast Asia with stops in Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia, all of which are facing U.S. tariffs of nearly 50%, promising to ink clean energy infrastructure deals across the region to deliver “green development.” 

China likely won’t have to work that hard to win new clean energy trading partners, as the United States’ aggressive tack is leaving few alternatives. “If the United States is not an alternative, then there will be no choice for countries in the region other than greater interdependence and greater integration [with China],” said a former senior USAID official.

Furthermore, China was already the world’s primary clean energy trading partner. Beijing has been making inroads in emerging economies for years through its massive Belt and Road infrastructure project, and already controls critical clean energy supply chains that the United States will be hard-pressed to avoid, and even harder-pressed to overtake. Plus, China’s energy companies are likely about to get a major leg up thanks to energy insecurity in Europe, where countries are also being disincentivized to trade with the U.S. 

“China doesn’t need to do anything to win,” Samantha Custer, director of policy analysis at AidData, a research group at Virginia research university William & Mary, recently told the Washington Post. For some time now, China has worked to “sow seeds of doubt that the U.S. is not a reliable economic and security partner, and unfortunately, people are now seeing the U.S. reinforce those doubts,” she added.

All eyes are now on the European Union and China to see if they will take up the helm of climate diplomacy now that the United States has withdrawn from the Paris agreement and taken a hardline stance against climate financing under Trump. However, there is some concern that China, too, will shy away from climate goals due to economic concerns. This could have a cascading effect through global markets and policy spheres, causing widespread relaxation of climate ambitions, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

However, other experts take a more optimistic outlook, pointing out that historically the U.S. has not been one of the largest contributors to climate finance anyway, and that other nations may very well step up to fill in the gaps and keep momentum toward global decarbonization goals. “With the US out [of] the picture for at least the next four years, there is hope that other countries will feel motivated to fill in the gap,” reports the Independent. 

“Other countries in Europe have also cut their aid budgets, but there is particular pressure on them to maintain their climate finance numbers”, Gaia Larsen, director of climate finance access at the World Resources Institute (WRI), told the Independent.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com

 

Trump's Energy Policies Are Set to Significantly Boost U.S. Emissions

By Felicity Bradstock - May 10, 2025

• Trump has reversed many of Biden's environmental policies, boosting fossil fuel production and cutting renewable energy initiatives.

• Wind energy projects are paused, and offshore developments like Empire Wind face legal challenges under new executive orders.

• The U.S. is forecasted to increase its oil production and greenhouse gas emissions, reversing progress made during the Biden administration.

Despite having invested heavily in clean energy under former President Joe Biden, the U.S. is now falling back into old habits, which is driving up its greenhouse gas emissions. Since coming into office in January, President Donald Trump has introduced a wide range of policies aimed at increasing fossil fuel production, reining in the renewable energy sector, and cutting funding for environmental research. These moves have led experts to reassess their greenhouse gas emissions outlooks for the U.S., as many increase their emissions forecasts. 

Upon entering office, Trump declared the U.S. was experiencing an “energy emergency” and introduced executive orders to reopen land and ocean for new fossil fuel exploration activities, marking a U-turn on restrictions introduced under Biden. Oil and gas production in the U.S. rose to record highs under President Biden, despite these restrictions, as the former leader sought to shift reliance away from Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. However, Trump wants to push output even higher, repeatedly stating his mantra: “drill, baby, drill”. 

Trump has not only gone full force on fossil fuels, but he also announced plans to restrict renewable energy projects, which has made the industry wary of new investment in clean energy. In January, Trump introduced an executive order pausing approvals, permits, and loans for all wind energy projects both onshore and offshore, a move that is currently facing legal action from 18 states. Trump also halted the development of the Empire Wind 1 offshore wind farm in New York in April, for which he may also face legal action from Norwegian energy major Equinor. 

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has cut funding for a range of environmental initiatives, government agencies, and research projects. In May, the government announced plans for a significant reorganisation of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), suggesting major cuts in staffing, particularly in the EPA’s scientific research arm. Staff levels could fall to levels not seen since the Ronald Reagan era in the 1980s. The Trump administration also proposed cutting billions of dollars in federal funding next year for a range of projects, including renewable energy and electric vehicle chargers, as well as halting programmes aimed at tackling climate change, as part of a wider request to cut $163 billion in 2026 federal spending. 

These moves are expected to contribute to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. under the Trump administration, compared to the decrease seen under Biden. To date, Trump has taken 145 initial actions to reverse environmental regulations and promote the use of fossil fuels. Michael Burger, a climate law expert at Columbia University, stated, “What we’ve seen in this first 100 days is unprecedented – the deregulatory ambition of this administration is mind-blowing.” Burger added, “They are doing things faster and with less process than last time, often disregarding the law. The intent is to shock, overwhelm and to overcome resistance through sheer force of numbers.”

While many of these actions will require further attention to come into practice, the U.S. is expected to increase its crude output to 15 million bpd from about 13.5 million bpd at present, according to Rystad Energy forecasts. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has repeatedly stated that to achieve global heating aims, countries must not approve any new fossil fuel projects. Olivier Bois von Kursk, policy adviser at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, stated, “The uptick in embodied emissions from forecast U.S. oil and gas production is worrying… The world can’t afford more climate chaos.” 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts “U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will increase by 1 percent in 2025, followed by a 1 percent decrease back to 2024 levels in 2026.” The EIA predicts, “Coal, petroleum products, and natural gas all contribute to changes in 2025 and 2026 emissions. Coal emissions make up most of the total emissions increase in 2025 and most of the decrease in 2026. These changes are associated with coal-fired electricity generation, which we forecast to increase by 6 percent in 2025 and decrease by 9 percent in 2026.”

Rhodium Group predicts that “rolling back executive action on climate and repealing the energy and tax policies that were enhanced and expanded through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) starting in 2025 could raise average household energy costs by as much as $489 a year in 2035, increase dependence on imported oil and gas, drive GHG emissions levels 24-36 percent higher compared to current policy in 2035, and risk substantial levels of private investment.” 

President Trump has moved far more quickly in his efforts to boost fossil fuel production, restrict renewable energy development, and cut climate funding during his first 100 days in office than during his first term as president. This is expected to have a significant impact on U.S. green transition progress and will likely drive up greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years.

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

 

House Republicans Look to Eliminate Green Tax Credits

By Irina Slav - May 13, 2025

The House Committee on Energy and Commerce has proposed phasing out tax credits linked to climate policies stipulated in Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. This, per the Committee, will raise some $6.5 billion.

The phaseout is part of the Republicans’ broader effort to roll back climate funding generously committed to various projects and initiatives by the previous federal government. Among the specific credits targeted are the incentive for EV purchases, tax credit for home energy efficiency improvements, and wind and solar subsidies, Reuters reported.

The report also noted a related proposal by the House Ways and Means panel about phasing out various tax incentives aiming to fuel the expansion of wind and solar energy, electric vehicles, and other transition technologies.

Naturally, the news sparked a strong reaction from the climate tech world. “While American businesses are demanding more energy to compete against our adversaries, and consumers are turning to clean energy to hedge against rising electricity prices, these proposals will undermine our nation’s efforts to achieve President Trump’s American energy dominance agenda,” the president of the Solar Energy Industries Association said in a statement.

“To make matters worse, this legislation is an attack on our individual liberties and freedom to choose how we power our homes. By effectively repealing the clean energy tax credit for homeowners, it rips consumer choice away from millions of hardworking Americans,” Abigail Ross Hopper also said.

On the other hand, the Committee’s chairman, Brett Guthrie, said in a WSJ op-ed that “This bill would claw back money headed for green boondoggles through “environmental and climate justice block grants” and other spending mechanisms through the Environmental Protection Agency and Energy Department. The legislation would reverse the most reckless parts of the engorged climate spending in the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act, returning $6.5 billion in unspent funds.”

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

U$ Department of Energy Proposes Billions in Savings Through Deregulation

By Charles Kennedy - May 13, 2025

• The Department of Energy has proposed to remove or reduce regulations that they claim will save $11 billion and boost the energy industry.
• 
  
• Key regulatory changes include the removal of greenhouse gas emissions reporting requirements and the streamlining of natural gas import/export procedures.
• 
  
• The Trump administration has moved to reverse previous climate policies, including withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and halting offshore wind power development, leading to a lawsuit from several states.
• 
  

The Department of Energy has proposed to eliminate or shrink regulations that it says would result in savings worth $11 billion and stimulate energy industry growth. The department said this was the biggest deregulation push in its history.

“While it would normally take years for the Department of Energy to remove just a handful of regulations, the Trump Administration assembled a team working around the clock to reduce costs and deliver results for the American people in just over 110 days,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said.

“Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, we are bringing back common sense -- slashing regulations meant to appease Green New Deal fantasies, restrict consumer choice and increase costs for the American people. Promises made, promises kept,” Wright added.

Among the notable changes proposed is the removal of reporting requirements for greenhouse gas emissions and the streamlining the administrative procedures related to natural gas imports and exports. The Department also proposes to axe the renewable energy production incentive along with various water and energy efficiency standards implemented by the previous administration—often to the chagrin of water and energy users across the States.

The reversal of the Biden admin’s climate policies and regulations has been a fundamental part of Trump’s plans for his term and he wasted no time in addressing them as soon as he took office. In his first day in office, the president withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement, just as he had done during his first term, and reversed Biden’s ban on offshore oil and gas drilling in parts of the U.S. continental shelf. 

That was just the start. In addition to the boost of oil and gas, the Trump administration started cutting off funding for various climate-focused organizations linked to the federal government, and paused all activities related to offshore wind power generation. Some 17 states have filed a lawsuit against the federal government because of the wind ban.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

 

Brazil's Renewable Energy Revolution

By Haley Zaremba - May 11, 2025

• Nearly 90% of Brazil's electricity comes from renewables, making it a prime location for energy-intensive AI infrastructure.

• Amazon, Microsoft, and other tech giants are investing billions in Brazilian data centers powered by clean energy.

• Brazil aims to prove that a renewable-focused energy grid can sustain large-scale AI growth, challenging the dominance of the US and China.

Brazil is sending a message to the world that it can meet the needs of artificial intelligence (AI) with renewable energy, and the world is listening. The South American nation is flaunting its renewable energy sources and expansive energy grids to court tech companies to set up shop within its borders, and it’s working. Already, Amazon and Microsoft are setting up data centers across the country and pouring billions into the Brazilian economy. 

Currently, the global AI race is dominated by the United States and China. The world’s two largest economies are leading the charge on large language model development and in terms of investment dollars. But as Forbes reports, “The AI contest isn’t about who crosses a finish line first — it’s about who navigates an endless obstacle course with the fewest stumbles.”

And Brazil has a fighting chance to become a major player in that game. “Brazil is well positioned,” Luciana Aparecida da Costa, director of infrastructure, energy transition, and climate change at  Brazilian development bank BNDES, told a reporter for TIME Magazine. “But we know that we have to compete with other countries to attract this.” And competing they are.

Last year, Brazil rolled out a $4 billion AI investment plan to support its own homegrown AI sector. "Instead of waiting for AI to come from China, the U.S., South Korea, Japan, why not have our own?" said Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva while presenting the investment plan. "Our artificial intelligence needs to be intelligent, it needs to be a source of income and employment," he added. But while the AI plan was built on a platform of sovereignty, it is already pulling in a considerable amount of foreign tech investment.

Critically, Brazil’s AI investment plan includes significant provisions for added energy infrastructure to keep up with the sector’s significant and growing energy demand. AI requires a staggering amount of energy to train its models, and the International Energy Agency projects that this energy footprint is set to double by just 2030 to reach 945 terawatt-hours (TWh), which is roughly equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of Japan. “By comparison, data centres consumed 415 TWh in 2024, roughly 1.5% of the world’s total electricity consumption,” Nature recently reported.

But a huge portion of Brazil’s electricity – almost 90% – comes from renewables. “Access to electricity across the country is almost universal and renewables meet almost 45% of primary energy demand, making Brazil’s energy sector one of the least carbon-intensive in the world,” says the International Energy Agency. This makes the country a very attractive hub for tech companies looking to expand their AI ambitions without totally walking back their climate pledges. Already, Alphabet – the company behind Google – has had to publicly admit that it likely won’t meet its own emissions targets thanks to the deployment of AI.

The question of whether AI will destroy global decarbonization initiatives is a big one, and it has garnered no shortage of discussion in headlines and boardrooms. Unwittingly, Brazil has become a sort of guinea pig to see whether a renewable-focused power grid can sustain a major global data center hub. The result of this experiment could have far-ranging consequences for would-be copycats. “As electricity in some emerging market countries increasingly comes from solar power, they may stand to gain foreign investment - not just from AI but also from any foreign investor who wants their products made cleanly,” reports TIME.

And so far, Brazil seems more than eager to be the global poster child for clean-powered AI. On a panel at the Web Summit in Rio de Janeiro this month, Brazil’s deputy minister of science, technology, and innovation Luis Manuel Rebelo Fernandes declared: “Our message to the world, on the basis of our plan, is that AI [power demand] is satiable with usage of renewable energy sources.”

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com

 

Inside Kazakhstan's Green Energy Transformation

By Felicity Bradstock - May 11, 2025

• Kazakhstan is committed to shifting from coal dependence to a renewable energy mix, with ambitious goals for 2050 and significant investment opportunities.

• Recent agreements, including a 1 GW wind power project with the UAE, signal growing international cooperation and investment in Kazakhstan's green energy sector.

• Green hydrogen is a focal point of Kazakhstan's long-term energy strategy, with aspirations to become a leading supplier to Europe via strategic trade corridors.

The Central Asian state of Kazakhstan – the world’s largest landlocked country – has major renewable energy ambitions that include wind, solar, and hydropower, as well as green hydrogen, as part of the government’s aims for a green transition. The government plans to support a shift away from a reliance on fossil fuels to a lower-carbon power sector. At present, coal continues to be Kazakhstan’s main energy source, providing around 64.7 percent of?the total projected generation?and 74 percent of thermal generation in 2019. However, the government hopes to attract higher levels of foreign investment over the coming decades to increase Kazakhstan’s renewable energy capacity and reduce its dependence on coal. 

The government’s National Green Growth Plan introduced several ambitious objectives for a green transition. These include an energy mix of 49 percent coal, 21 percent gas, 10 percent hydropower, 8 percent nuclear power and a wide variety of renewable resources by the end of the decade. However, energy experts believe that Kazakhstan’s coal dependence is unlikely to fall this rapidly and expect coal to continue contributing around 64.9 percent of total electricity generation by 2028. 

The government plans to launch a domestic nuclear energy programme to support the country’s shift to green, as well as significant public and private investment in non-hydro renewables. There has been a greater openness to foreign investment in recent years and the government aims to attract high levels of private financing for renewable energy projects in the coming years. However, investor uncertainty and a complicated business environment are hindering the achievement of this goal. Nevertheless, President Nazarbayev has stated the aim to reach 50 percent of renewable energy sources in the total energy mix by 2050. 

Kazakhstan is home to abundant renewable energy sources, and with greater funding, it could significantly increase its green energy capacity over the next few decades. The Ministry of Energy launched a competitive auction scheme for renewable energy projects in 2018 and has since issued annual project schedules. In February, the ministry approved its 2025 renewable energy auction schedule, with a total of 1,810 MW of renewable energy capacity to be allocated through the auction of 13 projects across multiple sectors, including four wind power projects (one with energy storage), four solar projects, four hydropower projects, and one biomass project.

In late April, the government approved a major renewable energy deal with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to build a 1 GW wind power plant. The facility will be developed in the Zhambyl region and will include a 300 MW energy storage system. Kazakh Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov said the agreement marks a major milestone in renewable energy cooperation and expects the project to boost Kazakhstan’s renewable energy share by around 3 percent. 

The deal supports the development of two 500 MW wind farms, capable of generating 3.4 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity a year, as well as the construction of 425 km of new transmission lines. The project is expected to attract $1.4 billion in foreign direct investment and support the creation of around 1,000 construction jobs and up to 100 permanent roles.

Together, wind and solar projects provided around 5 percent of Kazakhstan’s electricity generation in 2023. Thanks to its vast land area, Kazakhstan has the highest onshore wind potential in the Central Asian region, with a potential annual generating capacity of around 929 TWh, which is equivalent to three times the region’s power demand. Further, the planned green energy corridors connecting Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and the EU could help promote the power-sharing of renewable energy sources, supporting low-cost, sustainable power across borders.

In addition to conventional renewable energy projects, the government is also open to alternative energy projects, such as green hydrogen. Kazakhstan has significant potential to develop its hydrogen industry and become a regional powerhouse in clean energy. A European Bank for Reconstruction and Development assessment showed that Kazakhstan has good potential for the large-scale production of both green and blue hydrogen. In 2024, the country’s Energy Ministry approved the concept for the development of hydrogen energy until 2040, with green hydrogen expected to account for 50 percent of this production. 

However, the hydrogen industry is largely undeveloped in Kazakhstan at present, meaning that significant investment will be needed for the country to develop its hydrogen potential. If successful, Kazakhstan is ideally situated to become a major supplier of green hydrogen to the EU via routes like the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor. The demand for green hydrogen is expected to rise dramatically over the coming decades, as governments strive to decarbonise hard-to-abate industries using the fuel to support a green transition. 

Kazakhstan has great potential to develop its renewable energy sector and significantly increase its green energy capacity over the coming decades. Achieving this will require high levels of foreign investment and sectoral expertise to support the development of nascent industries, such as green hydrogen. However, if successful, Kazakhstan could become a regional green energy hub and an exporter of green hydrogen to Europe.

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

Global Net-Zero Targets in Jeopardy as Rich Countries Lag Behind

By Felicity Bradstock - May 11, 2025


Bill Gates calls for wealthy nations to prioritize net-zero emissions, emphasizing their responsibility to combat climate change.


Despite global net-zero pledges, rich countries lag in decarbonisation, risking the goals of the Paris Agreement.


Gates highlights the need for innovation investments and stronger climate commitments from high-income nations.



Alongside environmentalists and climate scientists, Bill Gates is the latest public figure to call on high-income countries to do more to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. While reducing emissions in developing countries can be difficult, due to a lack of funding and infrastructure, meaning it could take several more years to expand the renewable energy capacity of certain regions, Western nations have no such excuse.

Rich countries and regions, such as the United States and China, have some of the highest carbon emissions in the world, and many climate experts have criticised governments for not enforcing decarbonisation initiatives fast enough. Several high-income countries continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels for their power and heating, despite the huge potential for renewable alternatives.

This week, Microsoft’s founder, Bill Gates, said that rich countries “owe it to the world” to achieve net-zero emissions, during the opening dinner of the Ecosperity sustainability event in Singapore. Gates is the chairman of the non-profit Gates Foundation, which provides funding for a wide range of causes, including climate-related projects.

Speaking with Singapore’s Ambassador for Climate Action Ravi Menon, Gates stressed that high-income countries must achieve net zero even if the entire world cannot. “The notion that the entire world is going to get [to net zero] by 2050 is at this point not realistic,” said Gates. “There are levels of emissions that are small enough that the temperature worsening actually is not a problem,” he added. However, if rich nations can reach net zero, it demonstrates to other countries the potential to tackle the effects of the climate crisis.

The United Nations defines net zero as “cutting carbon emissions to a small amount of residual emissions that can be absorbed and durably stored by nature and other carbon dioxide removal measures, leaving zero in the atmosphere.” According to the UN, “The science shows clearly that in order to avert the worst impacts of climate change and preserve a liveable planet, global temperature increase needs to be limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Currently, the Earth is already about 1.2°C warmer than it was in the late 1800s, and emissions continue to rise. To keep global warming to no more than 1.5°C – as called for in the Paris Agreement – emissions need to be reduced by 45 percent by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.”


Several countries around the globe have established net-zero carbon emissions pledges with various deadlines. As of June 2024, 107 countries, responsible for approximately 82 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, had adopted net-zero pledges either in law, in a policy document or a long-term strategy, or in a government announcement. Thousands of companies around the globe have made similar pledges, many aiming for around mid-century.

However, recent analyses suggest that many countries are far from achieving their climate goals. Just 13 of the 195 Paris Agreement signatories had published their new emissions-cutting plans, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs), by the 10 February deadline. The missing countries represent 83 percent of global emissions and almost 80 percent of the world’s economy. Meanwhile, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change said the existing NDCs were enough to reduce global emissions by 2.6 percent from 2019 to 2030, but were nowhere near the 43 percent cut required to stay on track for the heating target of 1.5 degrees.

Gates said this week that the world must be bolder with innovation investments that seek to combat climate change. “The sooner we get there, the better. [But] we need the examples,” stated Gates. He explained that one of the main barriers to innovation is securing risk capital for projects.

In addition to failing to fund innovative solutions, many have accused high-income countries of backsliding on their climate targets. In April, over 175 countries met in London at the International Maritime Organisation to discuss the decarbonisation of the maritime sector. However, several developing country leaders were not optimistic about the outcome of the event based on previous experience.

“It is difficult to understand what these countries are thinking,” said Ambassador Albon Ishoda from the Marshall Islands. “Maybe they are worried about their national sovereignty. But we are basing our argument [for decarbonisation and a levy on shipping] on scientific grounds. The most vulnerable countries are acting as the adults in the room.” Ishoda stressed that, in 2023, governments agreed on a roadmap to decarbonise shipping by 2050, although little progress has been seen.

For years, environmentalists, climate scientists, the leaders of countries at risk of climate disasters, and many others have been urging high-income countries to do more to cut emissions or face the consequences. While many developing nations cannot achieve net zero without a major influx of funding and infrastructure development, most rich countries have no excuse for their slow decarbonisation progress. However, based on the current global rate of decarbonisation, it seems unlikely we will meet the aims set out in the Paris Agreement.

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com