Friday, June 05, 2026

'Whoo!' Data guru warns 'rural revolt' is turning 'field of dreams' into Trump nightmare

Travis Gettys
June 5, 2026 
RAW STORY


Harry Enten/CNN


President Donald Trump is facing a "rural revolt" as a result of his policies, according to a new data analysis.

The soon-to-be-80-year-old president was re-elected in 2024 on his promise to improve the economy, but voters aren't happy with the job he's done so far, and many of his policies are directly hurting farmers and voters in the rural areas that have backed him in all three elections.

"Iowa has been traditionally a field of dreams for the president of United States," said CNN's Harry Enten. "But it's quickly turning into potentially a field of nightmares. There seems to be a rural revolt going on in this country against Donald Trump. Take a look here: Rural voters and Trump, look, according to Fox News, he was easily winning them back in October of 2024 versus Kamala Harris, 18 points ahead. The exit poll even had it a bigger margin."

"But look at where he is now – whoo!" Enten exclaimed. "Down there underwater, underneath the cornfields. He's now 14 points underwater. That's over a 30-point switcheroo against the president."

The explanation for that reversal is fairly simple, according to Enten.

"Simply put, it's the economy, it's inflation," he said. "Take a look at this: You thought that that switcheroo was big, how about this one? Rural voters on Trump and inflation versus Kamala Harris. He was more trusted by 37 points. Now he is 19 points underwater with rural voters on inflation. That is an over 50-point switcheroo against the president of the United States. Rural voters, like the rest of the country, turning against Trump on the key issue that got him elected to a second term back in 2024."

Anger at the president has flowed down ballot to Republican congressional candidates and gubernatorial races, Enten said.

"You know, Donald Trump went and he has won all of these primaries," he said. "The candidates he endorsed have won all of these primaries, did not happen in Iowa. Well, just talk about Iowa Republicans here. The gubernatorial primary he endorsed Randy Feenstra, congressman from Iowa, and Feenstra actually won the absentee vote in that state by 15 points. Trump endorsed late, but the other candidate, Zach Lahn, look at this, he actually won those who voted on Election Day who knew about Trump's endorsement. In fact, they were considerably more favorable to Lahn than they were in a Feenstra, even after knowing that Trump had, in fact, backed Feenstra."

"It seemed to me that Iowa Republicans said, 'You know what, we hear you, Donald Trump, but you know what? We're dismissing that message,' again, part of a larger picture in my mind of rural voters not tuning in to what Donald Trump is telling him at this point," Enten added.

That shift against Trump is boosting Democratic chances in the midterm elections, Enten said.

"The last Democrat to win a Senate race in Iowa was all the way back in 2008," Enten said. "It was Tom Harkin. But what do we see here in terms of the Democrats' chances in Iowa and the governor's race and the Senate race? They have gone up like a rocket. We're now talking about Rob Sands running for governor with a greater than 50 percent chance, and it turns out that Josh Turek, who the Democratic establishment wanted, his chances have also been considerably rising at this point."

"If all of a sudden you're able to put Iowa on the board, if you're a Democrat hoping to win back control of the United States Senate, that would be a massive piece of the puzzle, and the last time Iowa elected a Democratic governor was all the way back in 2006, and that looks like a more likely possibility than not," Enten added.



Trump got a 'flashing red sign' with new Fox News poll: 'Big, big problem'

Nicole Charky-Chami
June 4, 2026 
RAW STORY


CNN anchor Dana Bash reported on Thursday that President Donald Trump's approval rating in Ohio had slipped as midterms were approaching. (CNN/Screenshot)

A new Fox News poll could signal a serious problem for President Donald Trump, CNN anchor Dana Bash reported on Thursday.

Bash referred to new polling from Fox News showing Ohio's Senate race could put Republicans in a tough position ahead of the midterm elections after Trump's approval rating has appeared to drop.

"That is a big flashing red sign for the president and for the Republicans on the ballot in this very red state of Ohio," Bash said. "This is the president's approval rating in Ohio right now. It is 42 percent, 42 percent approval. And the disapproval is 57 percent."

That's now a 15-point deficit, Bash explained.

"And then in November, the disapproval was 57 and 46 percent. And that is a 6 percent. So this is really a big, big problem potentially for the president," Bash said.

Republican incumbent Senator Jon Husted was reportedly viewed less favorably by voters compared to his Democratic challenger, former Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, according to the poll.



Trump cuts interview short as rain pounds metal barn roof and he clashes with host

Bennito L. Kelty
June 5, 2026 
RAW STORY


U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during an event at Custer Farms in Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin, U.S., June 5, 2026. REUTERS/Nathan Howard

Trump cut short an interview with NBC News as the sound of rain on a barn's metal roof kept interrupting, journalists shared.

Gabe Gutierrez, a senior White House correspondent for NBC News, revealed that the interview took place inside a Wisconsin barn "at the request of the White House," Gutierrez noted, but "rain repeatedly was hitting the metal roof of the barn."

Kristen Welker and others from the NBC News' Meet the Press team were conducting the interview with Trump, Gutierrez said.

"Trump ended an interview about fifty minutes after it began," following "multiple interruptions" from the rain. He also "disagreed" with questions during a "back and forth about election integrity" before ending the interview.

Trump reportedly showed up to planned events in Wisconsin in a bad mood.


Hardcore Trump backer sweats as farmers threaten to flip his seat blue

Travis Gettys
June 5, 2026 
RAW STORY


U.S. Representative Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) sits on a motorcycle outside the U.S. Capitol after the U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping spending and tax bill, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 3, 2025. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno

President Donald Trump is heading to Wisconsin to campaign for Rep. Derrick Van Orden, a third-term incumbent whose rural district is being squeezed by the policies he has spent two years defending.

Van Orden represents Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District, a stretch of farm country that produces more milk than most states and depends on roughly 17,000 farms to drive its broader economy. Politico reported that the region is directly impacted by Trump's tariff regime, rising fuel and fertilizer costs and trade disruptions caused by the war with Iran.

“I think [farmers] are growing frustrated with Trump’s administration for which Van Orden is a huge cheerleader,” said beef producer Max Hart. "They probably can't bear to vote for a Democrat. But they probably don't support Trump or Van Orden's policies."

The Cook Political Report recently moved the race from lean-Republican to a tossup. Van Orden's likely Democratic opponent, Rebecca Cooke, has outraised him and secured a spot in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Red to Blue program, which channels money and organizational support to candidates positioned to flip GOP-held seats.

The White House has responded with an unusual level of intervention. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is making her second appearance alongside Van Orden in less than six weeks, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. held a press conference inside a machine shed earlier this week. Trump's visit Friday will be framed around his administration's support for farmers, with the White House touting lower input costs, new trade markets and expanded rural opportunity zones.

Whether any of it will be enough is an open question. A Marquette Law School poll conducted in March found that 60 percent of Wisconsin voters believe Trump's tariffs are hurting farmers. In the western part of the state, which includes Van Orden's district, that figure rose to 67 percent.

"If farmers are struggling, it just boils down to everybody else," said Darin Von Ruden, president of the Wisconsin Farmers Union. "The bankers, the vets, the supply stores — all are impacted by what's happening at the farm level."

Van Orden has defended the administration's record and voiced support for the Iran war, arguing that prices will stabilize once the conflict concludes, but Cooke senses that the agricultural community is losing patience.

“When I’m talking to people at a dairy breakfast or at a county fair, I don’t usually lead with ‘I’m Rebecca Cooke and I’m a Democrat,’ because they walk right by me,” she said. “But if I introduce myself and I say, ‘I’m Rebecca Cooke, I grew up on a dairy farm … we need more folks in the middle willing to get things done, avoiding the chaos,’ [then] most people nod their head.”

Trump agriculture secretary shocked by her agency’s own data at live hearing

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins testifies before the House Committee on Agriculture on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 4, 2026. REUTERS/Evan Vucci
June 04, 2026
ALTERNET

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins struggled on Thursday during a House Agriculture Committee hearing when asked basic questions about her department's own data.

Rep. Angie Craig, a member of the Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party in Minnesota, probed Rollins about allegations of fraud involving recipients of SNAP benefits, formerly known as food stamps. Rollins tried to parrot conservative talking points, but got a little mixed up with the data coming from her own department.

Craig hammered Rollins on how many farms have failed in the past year

She then moved on to ask whether Rollins knows that "farmers say they can't afford fertilizer as a result of the president's war in Iran?"

Rollins claimed that it differed by geographic region, implying that some farmers have one demand while others have another.


A frustrated Craig asserted, "Oh, my gosh! Seventy percent is the answer."

Then she pivoted to SNAP benefits, with the committee's top Democrat asking whether Rollins knew the fraud rate among SNAP recipients.

Rollins said that the data is based on information that is "missing from the states that we can't verify. That's the whole point of this is with no ability to verify California, Minnesota—"


Craig cut in, "1.6 percent according to USDA."

Rollins claimed that Minnesota is reporting a low fraud rate, which she considers "an absolute joke."

"I'll say it again. The USDA's own data found 1.6 percent," Craig said.


Rollins tried to cut in and claim that Craig's data showed that. In fact, a 2025 fact sheet from the USDA confirms the data.

The release goes so far as to say that fraud "occurs relatively infrequently."

"I don't think you understand the difference between an error rate and a fraud rate. I honestly don't. It is one of the lowest programs — the lowest fraud rate in any program in America, is the SNAP program," Craig explained.

"You can't be serious," Rollins responded.


"Your own data says 1.6 percent," Craig said.

Rollins claimed that the reason it's so low is that states don't allow the federal government to "confirm" the information, presumably with their own investigations. That same 2025 fact sheet from Rollins' own office brags about the department's efforts to reduce "infrequent" fraud.

After a back and forth, Craig cut in, "Look, Madam Secretary, I'm asking you these questions because these issues are personal," Craig said.

Rollins accused her of not asking for legitimate answers.






Colbert replacement hemorrhages audience as devastating new CBS viewer figures released

Tom Boggioni
June 5, 2026
RAW STORY



FILE PHOTO: People gather outside of the Ed Sullivan Theater before the taping of the final episode of the "The Late Show" with Stephen Colbert, in New York City, U.S., May 21, 2026. REUTERS/Adam Gray/File Photo

Viewers angry over CBS's cancellation of Stephen Colbert's "The Late Show" are making their displeasure known, with Byron Allen's replacement program "Comics Unleashed" hemorrhaging more than half its audience — as competitors Jimmy Kimmel and Jimmy Fallon capitalize on the exodus.

According to The Daily Beast, the viewership just days after CBS pulled the plug on Colbert tells a devastating story for the network's late-night strategy.

Kimmel's show experienced a dramatic surge, drawing 2.185 million total viewers on June 1—a 53-percent year-on-year increase. In the coveted 18-49 demographic, ABC's late-night leader captured an eye-popping 295,000 viewers, representing a staggering 178-percent increase from the same night last year.

Fallon's "Tonight Show" came in a distant second with 1.301 million total viewers, though that was still a respectable 10-percent year-over-year increase. The NBC program pulled in 194,000 viewers in the 18-49 demo, a 14-percent improvement from last year.

CBS, meanwhile, cratered. Allen's "Comics Unleashed," which debuted a day after Colbert's departure, drew only 628,000 total viewers — a catastrophic 65-percent drop compared to the same time slot last year. In the crucial 18-49 demographic, the show managed just 82,000 viewers, according to the Beast report.

The report notes the financial structure of Allen's arrangement insulates CBS from the direct financial damage. Under a "time buy" deal, Allen purchased the 11:35 p.m. time slot directly from CBS and covers all production costs while retaining the right to sell advertising himself. That arrangement means Allen—not the network—absorbs the financial consequences of the poor ratings.

A source told The Daily Beast that this model actually benefits CBS by allowing the network to program the late-night slot without exposure to audience and advertiser volatility, even as the show itself collapses into irrelevancy.

 

Oil Markets Stop Believing Trump’s Peace Narrative

Fresh strikes on Kuwait and Oman undermine hopes of a U.S.-Iran de-escalation, keeping oil markets on edge and traders skeptical of diplomatic progress.

Friday, June 05, 2026

This week’s strikes on Kuwait and the Friday morning attack on Oman have dented hopes for a de-escalation between US and Iran following the much-publicized Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. Whilst Oman’s main port is reportedly up and running again, capping ICE Brent around the $95 per barrel mark, most global crude benchmarks will post weekly gains of 2-3%. Against this background, announcements of the Trump administration are increasingly discounted as tactical price-signalling rather than meaningful diplomatic progress.

Drone Disrupts Key Middle Eastern Export Terminal. Oman's authorities suspended operations at the Middle Eastern country's main crude export terminal in Mina al Fahal after an explosion was reported next to its single-buoy mooring berths, disrupting the flows of the 900,000 b/d Oman benchmark.

India Shields Refiners from Surging Fuel Costs. The Indian government has agreed to provide a one-time financial boost of $1 billion to domestic refiners and aviation retailers as compensation for keeping jet fuel prices at affordable prices for both domestic and international flights.

Russia Admits to Spring Upstream Pain. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged that the country's oil producers have been underperforming their 9.64 million b/d OPEC+ production target, blaming the lower crude output on 'unscheduled maintenance" across refineries.

Delfin Signs Off on 1st US Floating LNG Terminal. Privately held US LNG developer Delfin Midstream has announced a final investment decision on the first-ever floating LNG terminal in the States, aiming to operate some 13.2 mtpa of export capacity about 45 miles off the coast of Cameron Parish.

Venezuela Pitches Long-Term India Alliance. Visiting India this week, Venezuela's interim president Delcy Rodriguez announced that Indian refiners are seeking a long-term crude supply agreement with the Latin American nation's state oil firm PDVSA, boosting imports to 300,000 b/d in April-May.

Iranian Crude Oil Loses Value on Slackening Demand. Iranian oil prices dipped into discounts for the first time in three months as Chinese teapots are lowering refinery run rates on negative margins, sending differentials of Iranian Light cargoes to -$1 per barrel below ICE Brent futures.

BP's New CEO Springs to Action. Simultaneously to the ouster of former BP chair Albert Manifold, the UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) is reportedly in advanced talks to sell its UK North Sea assets to Ithaca Energy (LON:TTH) in a deal worth $2.7 billion, the first major divestment deal under new CEO Meg O'Neill.

Refiners Sue EPA Over Biofuel Mandates. The AFPM trade group, representing US refiners, stated that it had filed a lawsuit challenging the US Environmental Protection Agency's biofuel blending mandates, arguing they sharply increase compliance costs and trigger unnecessary fuel price hikes.

Indonesia Centralizes Control over Commodities. Indonesia finally issued regulation to bring exports of strategic commodities (such as ferroalloys, coal or palm oil derivatives) under government control, creating a new state company whose main task would be to facilitate exports out of the country.

Uganda Goes for Oil Antics, Weeks Before First Oil. Sowing market confusion, Uganda's long-standing president Yoseri Museweni replaced the country's energy minister Ruth Nankabiwa weeks before the commissioning of the Central African nation's inaugural field, the 190,000 b/d Tilenga project.

Iraq Wants Kurdish Oil Back in the Market. The Iraqi government has ordered the resumption of operations by all upstream companies present in the country's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, despite ongoing drone attacks, seeking to return to pre-conflict production levels of some 430,000 b/d.

Nigeria Lures Upstream Investors Again. Nigeria's upstream oil regulator NUPRC said the African country would start its 2026 licensing round in Q3 after President Tinubu’s approval, lowering entry barriers to attract investors, having secured $5.3 billion of new upstream capital with its 2025 auction.

Sweltering Heat Lifts Henry Hub to 16-Week High. US natural gas futures jumped above $3.3 per MMBtu this week, the highest since February, as meteorologists forecast temperatures to be higher-than-average through June 19, just as Lower-48 dry gas output fell to 108.5 BCf/d so far in June.

Mozambique Tightens Control over Mining Sector. Mozambique's President Daniel Chapo has signed a new law requiring 15% state ownership in all mining ventures and local ore processing plants, impacting current graphite and ruby mining, whilst also prohibiting the exports of untapped unprocessed minerals

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

 

Brazil Launches World-First Ethanol-Powered Grid Engine

 

  • Brazil has launched the world's first ethanol-powered engine designed specifically to generate grid electricity, at the Suape II power plant in Pernambuco, developed with Finnish firm Wärtsilä.

  • The pilot comes as the U.S. proposed a 25% tariff on Brazilian ethanol on June 1, citing unfair trade practices — adding geopolitical weight to Brazil's push for domestic ethanol applications.

  • Brazil's ethanol sector is worth roughly $20 billion and already supplies mandatory blends of up to 100% for flex-fuel vehicles; if the grid engine proves viable, it could reshape how countries use biofuels to back up intermittent renewables.

Brazil is undertaking a major biofuels experiment that could be majorly disruptive for the global energy landscape if it proves effective. The South American country is filthy rich in biomass, and is seeking to use ethanol in novel applications – in this case, to power the energy grid. A new ethanol-powered engine designed specifically to provide electricity to the grid was just launched at the Suape II power plant in Pernambuco, in a world first.

Brazilian energy company Suape Energia has partnered with Finnish technology firm Wärtsilä to develop the engine, a pilot model which will test whether or not the technology is viable in real-world conditions. The testing will be extensive, providing thousands of hours of data over the coming years that will tell the researchers a lot about the approach's performance, sustainability, and economic viability.

The engine will run on ethanol sourced primarily from sugarcane grown in Brazil. Brazil is the top producer as well as the top consumer of sugarcane-derived ethanol in the world, and finding a way to convert it into usable and affordable electricity would be a major win for the nation's energy autonomy and security. Typically, this ethanol is used to power vehicles. Using it in grid applications is a novel and potentially majorly disruptive approach.

“Brazil is a world leader in ethanol production, but its potential use in electricity generation has up to now been overlooked,” said José Faustino Cândido, the technical director of Suape Energia.

This innovation comes at a time of broad experimentation with ethanol in Brazilian markets. “A new wave of biofuel innovation is sweeping the nation,” Reuters reported this week.

Brazil's ethanol sector is huge, representing around USD $20 billion. It's the second largest ethanol industry in the world, behind the United States. The country has been a longtime champion of “flex-fuel” cars able to run on a mandatory blend of at least 30 percent ethanol, and up to 100 percent ethanol. This policy has helped to shield Brazilian consumers from the current oil and gas prices that are causing so much pain at petrol pumps around the world.

While Brazil is “uniquely positioned” to test out this technology thanks to its robust ethanol supply chains and infrastructure, the ramifications of this test extend far beyond the Brazilian context. According to a recent report from Interesting Engineering, “the project's developers hope to show that ethanol can provide a source of dispatchable power, electricity that can be generated on demand, at a time when many countries are seeking ways to complement intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind and solar.”

This new domestic use for ethanol also comes at a politically fortuitous time for Brazil, as the United States proposed a 25 percent tariff on Brazilian ethanol just this week. On June 1, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative released a report finding that “Brazil's acts, policies and practices with respect to ethanol market access are unreasonable and burden or restrict U.S. commerce.” In other words, the federal government conducted an investigation into Brazil's ethanol trade policies and determined that they have unfairly disadvantaged the United States and other trading partners by unduly restricting the market.

But while Brazil is leaning more heavily than ever into biofuels, the United States is in turmoil over how to regulate ethanol on its own soil. The Republican party is sharply divided over biofuels quotas of the kind that have benefitted Brazil during this latest oil price shock. Last month the House narrowly passed a bill to codify year-round sales of E15 ethanol fuel with a 15 percent ethanol blend in a major win for the corn lobby and for agricultural states. The bill will now have to go through the Senate, where its future is uncertain.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com

GENDER APARTHEID & FEMICIDE

Regional Leaders Back Taliban Trade Ties While EU Holds the Line

  • Officials from Central and South Asia meeting in Tashkent agreed Afghanistan is central to regional trade routes, with Uzbekistan alone inking roughly $5 billion in Afghan deals since late 2025.

  • Afghanistan’s Chamber of Commerce chair called for targeted sanctions relief, arguing that non-political private-sector traders bear the brunt of restrictions aimed at the Taliban government.

  • The EU’s Central Asia envoy signaled Brussels has little appetite to ease its stance toward the Taliban, effectively ruling out EU funding for major infrastructure like a trans-Afghan rail corridor.

Top level officials from Central and South Asia convened in Tashkent on June 4 to discuss regional trade and connectivity under a format known as the Termez Dialogue. Participants were unanimous in seeing a strategic need to weave Afghanistan into regional trade networks, but discussion on specific tactics to achieve that aim did not feature prominently at the gathering.

For Central Asian states, the shortest route to a seaport runs through Afghanistan. But there are broader reasons for deepening engagement with the Taliban leadership, Bakhromjon Aloev, Uzbekistan’s first deputy foreign minister, pointed out. An Afghanistan that is trading vigorously and growing more prosperous can potentially break the country’s nearly half-century-long cycle of violence and “contribute to regional stability,” he stated.

Uzbekistan and other Central Asian states are building trade ties with Afghanistan to the fullest extent possible. For example, Uzbek and Afghan entities have agreed on deals worth roughly $5 billion since the fall of 2025.

Even so, the general lack of international recognition of the Taliban government, coupled with ongoing international sanctions, are hindering Afghanistan’s ability to expand trade and develop road and rail routes to facilitate cross-border commerce.

Afghan Minister of Industry and Commerce Nooruddin Azizi reiterated Kabul’s desire to build up trade volume with neighboring states and develop the country’s logistics capacity. Other Afghan officials in Tashkent quietly lobbied Central and South Asian leaders to advocate on Kabul’s behalf for an easing of international sanctions.

In an interview with Eurasianet, the chairman of Afghanistan’s Chamber of Commerce and Investment Syed Karim Hashemy urged a rethinking of sanctions policy against Afghanistan, arguing that private-sector traders who in his words are “non-political” are unfairly impacted by the sanctions imposed because of repressive government policies. Sanctions should be tweaked, he added, to give entrepreneurs more economic leeway to trade with Afghanistan’s neighbors.

Hashemy said that private-sector entrepreneurs are responsible for generating about 70 percent of Afghanistan’s economic activity. “The private sector has never left the country,” he claimed, going on to call for banking restrictions to be altered to enable private-sector, trade-related wire transfers.

Eduards Stirpais, the European Union’s special representative to Central Asia, downplayed any idea that Brussels would substantively alter its stance toward the Taliban government in the foreseeable future, citing “little appetite … to support a regime that is not supporting our [European] values.” That suggests EU financing for large-scale infrastructure projects, such as a trans-Afghan railroad, is unlikely to be forthcoming.

One conference participant, speaking on background, noted that in the eyes of many Central Asian officials, the Taliban government is a more reliable negotiating partner than was the US-backed government that the Islamic militant movement drove from power in 2021. “The Talibs are very tough negotiators, but once they agree on something, they can be counted upon,” the participant said.

The Termez Dialogue is a platform forged by a 2022 United Nations Resolution titled Strengthening connectivity between Central and South Asia. The resolution urges the creation of “accessible and sustainable transport networks … with a view to achieving transport connectivity across Central and South Asia that is economically, socially and environmentally viable and financially sustainable.”

By Eurasianet.org

Japan Plans to Replace Up to 14 Nuclear Reactors by 2050

Japan's government is making long-term plans for replacing up to a dozen nuclear reactors by 2050, to secure its electricity supply, with two to five of these to be rebuilt by the 2040s, the country's economy ministry said today.

This is the latest step in a policy reversal for Tokyo, which, following the 2011 Fukushima disaster, closed all of its nuclear reactors and tried to switch to other forms of electricity generation. The Strait of Hormuz crisis, as well as LNG price volatility, has recently prompted a reconsideration of the nuclear-divorce policy, with growing pro-nuclear sentiment in Japanese political circles.

The latest idea was laid out in a proposal by the ministry, seeing as many as 11 to 14 nuclear reactors in operation by 2050, Reuters reported, citing the institution. If all 14 are built, this would add 16 GW to Japan's generation capacity. The publication noted that currently, Japan generates between 60% and 70% of its electricity from hydrocarbons, including coal, oil, and natural gas, which it imports due to lack of its own resources.

Kyodo News, meanwhile, reports that the Takae Sanaichi government plans to have 20% of the country's electricity come from nuclear power in fiscal year 2040 to meet electricity demand. Since repairing existing reactors would not be enough to secure the energy forecast to be in demand at the time, new capacity would need to be built. The news outlet notes, however, that nuclear power plant construction has become more expensive lately, which casts doubts about whether all the planned reactors would materialize.

Industry estimates about electricity demand, per Kyodo News, show a potential shortfall in supply of some 5.5 million kW in 2040. This amount is equivalent to the output from five nuclear reactors, the publication wrote. At the moment, 24 nuclear reactors in Japan are undergoing decommissioning.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

Australia's 344-Million-Barrel Oilfield Could Finally Get the Green Light

After years of delays, Australia's largest undeveloped oil project could progress to a final investment decision in 2027 as the energy crisis amid the Iran war has heightened the need of homegrown resources.

Carnarvon Energy Ltd, a junior explorer that holds 10% in the Dorado oil discovery offshore Western Australia, believes that a final investment decision to develop the project could be made in late 2027, Carnarvon's chief executive Philip Huizenga told Bloomberg in an interview on Friday.

Australian energy giant Santos is the operator and majority holder with an 80% stake, while Taiwan's CPC holds the remaining 10% equity in Dorado, an oil discovery made in 2018 and estimated to contain gross 2C contingent resources of 344 million barrels of oil equivalent.

“Dorado has come right back to the top of Santos’ thinking. It’s an oil project at a time when there’s a need for energy security in Australia,” Carnarvon’s Huizenga told Bloomberg.

Santos hasn’t signaled an FID, but it said in its investor briefing day last week that the Bedout Basin, which contains the Dorado discovery, would be appraised for scale with three wells in 2027 to test the integrated oil and gas prospects in the northern part of the basin.

Dorado, the largest undeveloped oil project in Australia, is a high-return, short payback-cycle project, and has the potential to provide increased energy security, according to Santos.

An initial development would involve the production of oil and condensate through a floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel, while a second phase would entail gas production to backfill Santos’ domestic gas infrastructure in Western Australia.

Despite the fact that it is a major gas and LNG producer, Australia relies on imports for most of its transportation fuel supply. The situation became worse after a fire broke out at one of the only two refineries in the country.

Since 2013, Australia has permanently closed five out of its seven refineries, which has increased its reliance on imported fuel. But the Iran war and the fuel crunch in Asia led to extraordinary measures in Australia such as halving the fuel excise on gasoline and diesel for three months and securing shipments of diesel and gasoline, including from Brunei, South Korea, and even China.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

 

Bank of England Official Says Oil Crisis Clouds Rate Outlook

The Bank of England may know where inflation is headed, but it has a much harder time knowing where oil—and interest rates—are headed.

That was the message from Bank of England policymaker Swati Dhingra on Friday, as the ongoing Middle East energy crisis continues to complicate the outlook for interest rates.

"If you ask me what's my interest rate decision next month going to look like or in the future, I think that's very hard to say, because the big elephant in the room here is what happens to the energy crisis," Dhingra said during an event hosted by University College London.

The comments highlight a growing problem for central banks on both sides of the Atlantic. Policymakers have spent years fighting inflation. Now they are trying to determine whether the latest energy shock is a temporary price spike or the beginning of something more persistent.

Before the Iran war erupted in late February, Dhingra had been among the most dovish members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. She voted to cut rates by a quarter point in February while most of her colleagues preferred to stay put.

That was before crude prices surged and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to most commercial traffic.

Since then, the calculus has become considerably more complicated.

According to minutes from the Bank's April meeting, Dhingra said rate cuts could again become appropriate if the conflict is resolved quickly and oil prices retreat sharply. If the crisis deepens, however, additional tightening may be necessary.

Markets appear to be leaning toward the latter risk. Traders see little chance of a rate increase when the Bank of England meets later this month, but are pricing in roughly an 80% chance of a quarter-point hike by September.

The uncertainty mirrors concerns increasingly voiced by U.S. central bankers. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid warned last week that the current oil shock may not be as transitory as policymakers once hoped, particularly with inflation already running above target.

For central bankers, that leaves an uncomfortable reality. Oil prices are now driving a growing share of the inflation outlook, while the trajectory of the Middle East conflict remains anyone's guess.

That makes forecasting rates almost as difficult as forecasting crude.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com