Satellite images show the buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine that have the US and NATO worried about an invasion
PUTIN WILL USE DEFENCE OF RUSSIANS TO JUSTIFY INVASION, AS HAPPENED IN GEORGIA AND CRIMEA
LAVAROV BITCHED TO BLINKEN ABOUT RUSSIAN PUPPET YANACOVICH AND THE 2014 MADAN REVOLT, THATS HOW FAR BACK THEY WANT TO GO
Ryan Pickrell
Mon, December 6, 2021
Overview of ground forces and equipment in Yelnya, Russia
Ryan Pickrell
Mon, December 6, 2021
Overview of ground forces and equipment in Yelnya, Russia
Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies
New satellite images of the buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine's borders have come out.
The troop buildup has raised concerns that Russia may invade its neighbor as soon as early next year.
The Biden administration has warned of "severe consequences" if Russia takes military action.
New satellite photos show the buildup of Russian armed forces at strategic locations in western Russia near the Ukrainian border and at one spot in Crimea amid concerns that Russia will invade its neighbor in the near future.
The images, which Insider obtained from Maxar Technologies, show a number of Russian tactical battle groups, including both personnel and equipment, such as tanks, artillery, and armored troop carriers, deployed to the Pogonovo training area and Yelnya in Russia and Novoozernoye in Crimea in November.
Overview of ground forces and equipment in Yelnya, RussiaSatellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies
After snap drills in the spring near Ukraine triggered a few alarms, tensions de-escalated for a time. But alarm bells began ringing again when a significant number of Russian troops were observed gathering a couple hundred miles from Ukraine's border early last month.
Amid a flurry of reports on the Russian troop buildup, State Department and Pentagon officials publicly characterized Russian activity as "unusual" and expressed some concern over Russia's lack of transparency about the reasons for the troop increase.
Troop tents in Yelnya, Russia
View of Russian forces deployed to Novoozernoye
A Russian battle group is visible in the Pogonovo training area
A second Russian battle group can be seen in the Pogonovo training area
New satellite images of the buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine's borders have come out.
The troop buildup has raised concerns that Russia may invade its neighbor as soon as early next year.
The Biden administration has warned of "severe consequences" if Russia takes military action.
New satellite photos show the buildup of Russian armed forces at strategic locations in western Russia near the Ukrainian border and at one spot in Crimea amid concerns that Russia will invade its neighbor in the near future.
The images, which Insider obtained from Maxar Technologies, show a number of Russian tactical battle groups, including both personnel and equipment, such as tanks, artillery, and armored troop carriers, deployed to the Pogonovo training area and Yelnya in Russia and Novoozernoye in Crimea in November.
Overview of ground forces and equipment in Yelnya, RussiaSatellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies
After snap drills in the spring near Ukraine triggered a few alarms, tensions de-escalated for a time. But alarm bells began ringing again when a significant number of Russian troops were observed gathering a couple hundred miles from Ukraine's border early last month.
Amid a flurry of reports on the Russian troop buildup, State Department and Pentagon officials publicly characterized Russian activity as "unusual" and expressed some concern over Russia's lack of transparency about the reasons for the troop increase.
Troop tents in Yelnya, Russia
Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies
Toward the end of November, Bloomberg reported that the US had shared concerns about the possibility of an invasion, as well as intelligence indicating that Russia is positioning forces for a possible multi-directional push into Ukraine, with allies and partners in Europe.
"I would not downplay this," Jeffrey Edmonds, a former CIA military analyst and Russia expert at CNA, told Insider at the time. "The troop buildup is pretty significant."
"I think you always have to assume it's a real possibility," Jim Townsend, a former Pentagon and NATO official and security expert at the Center for New American Security, said.
And in a podcast discussion last month, Michael Kofman, the Research Program Director for the Russia Studies Program at CNA, said he doesn't "think there is going to be a Russian military operation in the coming days and weeks," but added that he is "very worried looking into the coming months and toward this winter."
Toward the end of November, Bloomberg reported that the US had shared concerns about the possibility of an invasion, as well as intelligence indicating that Russia is positioning forces for a possible multi-directional push into Ukraine, with allies and partners in Europe.
"I would not downplay this," Jeffrey Edmonds, a former CIA military analyst and Russia expert at CNA, told Insider at the time. "The troop buildup is pretty significant."
"I think you always have to assume it's a real possibility," Jim Townsend, a former Pentagon and NATO official and security expert at the Center for New American Security, said.
And in a podcast discussion last month, Michael Kofman, the Research Program Director for the Russia Studies Program at CNA, said he doesn't "think there is going to be a Russian military operation in the coming days and weeks," but added that he is "very worried looking into the coming months and toward this winter."
View of Russian forces deployed to Novoozernoye
Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies
Biden administration officials revealed late last week that US intelligence indicates Russia could invade early next year with a force as large as 175,000 troops, according to multiple reports.
Biden administration officials revealed late last week that US intelligence indicates Russia could invade early next year with a force as large as 175,000 troops, according to multiple reports.
A Russian battle group is visible in the Pogonovo training area
Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies
One official said that "the Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia's rapid military buildup near Ukraine's borders."
"The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery, and equipment," the administration official said, further explaining that the US estimates "half of these units are already near Ukraine's border."
One official said that "the Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia's rapid military buildup near Ukraine's borders."
"The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery, and equipment," the administration official said, further explaining that the US estimates "half of these units are already near Ukraine's border."
A second Russian battle group can be seen in the Pogonovo training area
Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies
Though Russia has denied having plans to invade, the buildup comes as Russia has expressed frustration with what he considers to be a lack of respect for Russia's "red lines," NATO activity, Ukraine's pro-Western leanings, and political obstacles in Ukraine running contrary to Russian interests.
"I don't accept anybody's red lines," President Joe Biden told reporters Friday, adding that the US would probably need to have a lengthy discussion with Putin about Russian activities. The White House announced over the weekend the two leaders will talk Tuesday.
As for whether or not Russia will actually move to invade its neighbor, "we don't know whether President Putin has made the decision to invade," Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said last week. But, the secretary added, "we do know that he is putting in place the capacity to do so in short order should he so decide."
"So despite uncertainty about intention, and timing, we must prepare for all contingencies while working to see to it that Russia reverses course," he said, warning in remarks at a NATO event of "severe consequences" should Russia invade.
Last Friday, Biden said that he was putting together what he believes to be "the most comprehensive and meaningful set of initiatives to make it very, very difficult for Mr. Putin to go ahead and do what people are worried he may do."
Though Russia has denied having plans to invade, the buildup comes as Russia has expressed frustration with what he considers to be a lack of respect for Russia's "red lines," NATO activity, Ukraine's pro-Western leanings, and political obstacles in Ukraine running contrary to Russian interests.
"I don't accept anybody's red lines," President Joe Biden told reporters Friday, adding that the US would probably need to have a lengthy discussion with Putin about Russian activities. The White House announced over the weekend the two leaders will talk Tuesday.
As for whether or not Russia will actually move to invade its neighbor, "we don't know whether President Putin has made the decision to invade," Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said last week. But, the secretary added, "we do know that he is putting in place the capacity to do so in short order should he so decide."
"So despite uncertainty about intention, and timing, we must prepare for all contingencies while working to see to it that Russia reverses course," he said, warning in remarks at a NATO event of "severe consequences" should Russia invade.
Last Friday, Biden said that he was putting together what he believes to be "the most comprehensive and meaningful set of initiatives to make it very, very difficult for Mr. Putin to go ahead and do what people are worried he may do."
AND LETS NOT FORGET BELARUS ON THE UKRAINIAN BORDER, LUKESHENKO THREATENING THE UKRAINE ON BEHALF OF THE RUSSIANS. ARE HIS MILITARY AND RUSSIAN VISITING TROOPS ALSO ON THE BORDER OF UKRAINE, WHILE HE PLUGS THE POLISH (EU/NATO) BORDER WITH REFUGEES.
Ukraine: America Dropped the Ball on Russia’s Invasion Threat
Anna Nemtsova
Mon, December 6, 2021,
ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images
After U.S. intelligence revealed that Russia may be preparing for a full-on invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov told The Daily Beast in an exclusive interview that the 7-year-long military conflict is even more dangerous today than it was in April of this year, when Moscow deployed up to 150,000 troops along the Ukrainian border.
“The West did not react in time,” the minister said on Monday, adding that it’s now clear that the Kremlin has been plotting an offensive on Ukraine for months. “Russia has de facto annexed Belarus, which adds more than 1,000 km along the border that we have to defend.”
Russia’s Cold War With Ukraine Is About To Heat Up
Up until now, Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko has tried to maintain a somewhat neutral position on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Just a few months ago, Lukashenko claimed he would recognize Crimea as Russian territory only “when the last Russian oligarch delivers goods” to the peninsula, referring to the Russian elite’s reluctance to invest in Crimea for fear of getting sanctioned. But now, with Lukashenko fuming over Western sanctions and reliant on the Kremlin’s support, “Minsk is serving as Moscow’s proxy and is used for actions that Russia cannot do with its own hands,” Reznikov told The Daily Beast.
On Saturday, Ukrainians woke up to a flurry of chilling headlines after The Washington Post reported that Russia may be gearing up to attack Ukraine in a matter of months, based on information gathered from a U.S. intelligence analysis. The plan reportedly involves the deployment of over 175,000 Russian troops. All the while, Russian officials have reportedly been pressuring the U.S. into guaranteeing that Ukraine will be blocked from joining NATO.
In other words, the message to America and its allies is clear: Mind your own business, and stay out of it.
According to Reznikov, it gets worse. Not only are there more Russian soldiers on the border than there were in April, but the fact that Ukraine, Poland, and three other Baltic states are now “surrounded” with Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipelines presents its own fresh set of challenges to Ukraine’s resistance efforts.
“The direct gas pipeline to Germany sharply increases military threats to the four NATO states and also to Ukraine. Russia now has the potential to destabilize [their gas supplies] and in doing so, block a strong reaction from Europe,” the minister said. “We saw what that can look like: the Kremlin carried out a hybrid attack on Poland and Lithuania with the help of migrants,” he added, referring to the recent border crisis at the Poland-Belarus border.
The minister warned that in the case of a Russian invasion, millions of Ukrainian refugees would flood the European Union. “The sudden appearance of 3-5 million refugees from Ukraine would be just one of many serious problems that the European society would have to deal with,” he said.
“We are already dealing with several wars at the same time: a political conflict between President Zelensky and oligarch [Rinat] Akhmetov, economic crises and a COVID-19 pandemic,” editor-in-chief of Ukrainskaya Pravda, Sevgil Musaieva told The Daily Beast on Monday. “A war would be a disaster, but we hope that Moscow is just crying wolf again to put pressure on the West.”
Reznikov expressed concerns that the flow of migrants coming from Belarus could also be redirected from the Polish border to its border with Ukraine, where Ukrainian military forces have been preparing to defend a 1,500-mile-long stretch of land for weeks.
Putin and Biden are expected to speak in a video conference summit on Tuesday, but it’s already clear that Moscow does not expect any miracle peace deal between the two presidents. “It's very difficult to expect any breakthroughs from any conversations. We have such huge Augean stables in our bilateral relations now that it is hardly possible to clear them out like this in a few hours of conversation,” the Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday.
Ukrainian analysts are struggling to assess the legitimacy of Moscow’s invasion plans. “Things look much worse than in April. Since the summer we’ve been reading about Russia recruiting more soldiers online, building field hospitals, kitchens for the war time, and of course about Russian-Ukrainian joint troops,” Ivan Yakovyna, a Kyiv-based analyst at Novoye Vremya magazine, told The Daily Beast on Monday.
A popular television presenter, Yevgeny Kisilev, believes that the current threat of war is real. “There has been a shift in Russian power towards the war hawks. They have won the parliamentary elections, so they want to fight now,” Kisilev, who reports for the Ukraine-24 TV network, told The Daily Beast.
At this point, Reznikov does not believe that any kind of diplomatic agreement will keep Moscow at bay.
“Ukraine already signed the Budapest Memorandum once and gave away the world's third-biggest nuclear arsenal in exchange for what we considered ‘guarantees.’ After some time, one of the guarantor countries, the Russian Federation, violated all agreements and attacked us, occupying part of our territories. Tens of thousands of our people have already died. We don't really believe in any paper deals," he told The Daily Beast.
Putin Ushers in New Cold War Era by Severing Russia’s NATO Link
The minister went on: “The guarantee would be the West’s practical steps towards strengthening Ukraine's defense capability and our army. So that the price of a possible escalation would become unacceptable for the Kremlin’s military plans, and also, a clear preventive signal to Russia that the escalation of the war would destroy Russia economically. Only such an approach would be a guarantee.”
The stark contrast between the positions of Washington and Moscow was laid bare last week when U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that Washington would “impose severe costs and consequences” in response to any Russian escalation. Lavrov responded by saying that NATO was “playing with fire.”
“The situation is dangerous,” pro-Kremlin analyst Yuriy Krupnov told The Daily Beast. “Since the absolute mistrust between Russia and the West makes the future completely uncertain.”
Read more at The Daily Beast.
Anna Nemtsova
Mon, December 6, 2021,
ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images
After U.S. intelligence revealed that Russia may be preparing for a full-on invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov told The Daily Beast in an exclusive interview that the 7-year-long military conflict is even more dangerous today than it was in April of this year, when Moscow deployed up to 150,000 troops along the Ukrainian border.
“The West did not react in time,” the minister said on Monday, adding that it’s now clear that the Kremlin has been plotting an offensive on Ukraine for months. “Russia has de facto annexed Belarus, which adds more than 1,000 km along the border that we have to defend.”
Russia’s Cold War With Ukraine Is About To Heat Up
Up until now, Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko has tried to maintain a somewhat neutral position on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Just a few months ago, Lukashenko claimed he would recognize Crimea as Russian territory only “when the last Russian oligarch delivers goods” to the peninsula, referring to the Russian elite’s reluctance to invest in Crimea for fear of getting sanctioned. But now, with Lukashenko fuming over Western sanctions and reliant on the Kremlin’s support, “Minsk is serving as Moscow’s proxy and is used for actions that Russia cannot do with its own hands,” Reznikov told The Daily Beast.
On Saturday, Ukrainians woke up to a flurry of chilling headlines after The Washington Post reported that Russia may be gearing up to attack Ukraine in a matter of months, based on information gathered from a U.S. intelligence analysis. The plan reportedly involves the deployment of over 175,000 Russian troops. All the while, Russian officials have reportedly been pressuring the U.S. into guaranteeing that Ukraine will be blocked from joining NATO.
In other words, the message to America and its allies is clear: Mind your own business, and stay out of it.
According to Reznikov, it gets worse. Not only are there more Russian soldiers on the border than there were in April, but the fact that Ukraine, Poland, and three other Baltic states are now “surrounded” with Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipelines presents its own fresh set of challenges to Ukraine’s resistance efforts.
“The direct gas pipeline to Germany sharply increases military threats to the four NATO states and also to Ukraine. Russia now has the potential to destabilize [their gas supplies] and in doing so, block a strong reaction from Europe,” the minister said. “We saw what that can look like: the Kremlin carried out a hybrid attack on Poland and Lithuania with the help of migrants,” he added, referring to the recent border crisis at the Poland-Belarus border.
The minister warned that in the case of a Russian invasion, millions of Ukrainian refugees would flood the European Union. “The sudden appearance of 3-5 million refugees from Ukraine would be just one of many serious problems that the European society would have to deal with,” he said.
“We are already dealing with several wars at the same time: a political conflict between President Zelensky and oligarch [Rinat] Akhmetov, economic crises and a COVID-19 pandemic,” editor-in-chief of Ukrainskaya Pravda, Sevgil Musaieva told The Daily Beast on Monday. “A war would be a disaster, but we hope that Moscow is just crying wolf again to put pressure on the West.”
Reznikov expressed concerns that the flow of migrants coming from Belarus could also be redirected from the Polish border to its border with Ukraine, where Ukrainian military forces have been preparing to defend a 1,500-mile-long stretch of land for weeks.
Putin and Biden are expected to speak in a video conference summit on Tuesday, but it’s already clear that Moscow does not expect any miracle peace deal between the two presidents. “It's very difficult to expect any breakthroughs from any conversations. We have such huge Augean stables in our bilateral relations now that it is hardly possible to clear them out like this in a few hours of conversation,” the Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday.
Ukrainian analysts are struggling to assess the legitimacy of Moscow’s invasion plans. “Things look much worse than in April. Since the summer we’ve been reading about Russia recruiting more soldiers online, building field hospitals, kitchens for the war time, and of course about Russian-Ukrainian joint troops,” Ivan Yakovyna, a Kyiv-based analyst at Novoye Vremya magazine, told The Daily Beast on Monday.
A popular television presenter, Yevgeny Kisilev, believes that the current threat of war is real. “There has been a shift in Russian power towards the war hawks. They have won the parliamentary elections, so they want to fight now,” Kisilev, who reports for the Ukraine-24 TV network, told The Daily Beast.
At this point, Reznikov does not believe that any kind of diplomatic agreement will keep Moscow at bay.
“Ukraine already signed the Budapest Memorandum once and gave away the world's third-biggest nuclear arsenal in exchange for what we considered ‘guarantees.’ After some time, one of the guarantor countries, the Russian Federation, violated all agreements and attacked us, occupying part of our territories. Tens of thousands of our people have already died. We don't really believe in any paper deals," he told The Daily Beast.
Putin Ushers in New Cold War Era by Severing Russia’s NATO Link
The minister went on: “The guarantee would be the West’s practical steps towards strengthening Ukraine's defense capability and our army. So that the price of a possible escalation would become unacceptable for the Kremlin’s military plans, and also, a clear preventive signal to Russia that the escalation of the war would destroy Russia economically. Only such an approach would be a guarantee.”
The stark contrast between the positions of Washington and Moscow was laid bare last week when U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that Washington would “impose severe costs and consequences” in response to any Russian escalation. Lavrov responded by saying that NATO was “playing with fire.”
“The situation is dangerous,” pro-Kremlin analyst Yuriy Krupnov told The Daily Beast. “Since the absolute mistrust between Russia and the West makes the future completely uncertain.”
Read more at The Daily Beast.
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