CAPITALIST CRISIS 

Coronavirus plunges world economy into brutal recession

AFP / Ludovic MARINSorry we're closed! - lockdowns are sending the world economy into a massive recession

Measures imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus are pushing the world economy into a recession deeper and more painful than initially expected, even if a rebound is still on the cards for next year.

A week before the International Monetary Fund updates its forecasts for the global economy that will take into account the initial damage incurred since the coronavirus emerged in China at the start of the year, the first sets of data are coming in.

France's central bank estimated Wednesday that the country's economy contracted by around six percent in the first three months of 2020, its worst quarterly performance since World War II.

Meanwhile, the leading economic institutes in Germany expect Europe's top economy to contract by nearly 10 percent in the second quarter.

That would be twice as deep as the contraction Germany suffered in 2009 as the global financial crisis hit the continent, and it would constitute the country's worst performance since the institutes began keeping records in 1970.

"During the first two quarters of the year, the economies of Western countries are collapsing," said Philippe Waechter, economist at Ostrum Asset Management.

If the United States is somewhat behind Europe in terms of shutting down businesses to stem the spread of the coronavirus and first-quarter figures will not be impacted, the effect is likely to make itself felt in the second quarter.

- 'Deepest recession of our lives' -

"It's impossible to imagine that the United States could escape the deep recession being suffered elsewhere," said Waechter.

Both California, which has the world's fifth-largest economy ahead of Britain and France, and the US financial capital New York City are both under confinement measures.

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization said Wednesday it expects world trade to tumble by between 13 and 32 percent this year.

WTO chief Roberto Azevedo warned the world is facing the "deepest economic recession or downturn of our lives."

Forecasts made just a few weeks ago have become outdated.

In mid-March, Moody's ratings agency said it expected moderate recessions of around two percent this year in the United States and 2.2 percent for the eurozone.

Since then, most of Europe has followed Italy and Spain into lockdown, as has much of the United States, slamming the brakes on both production and consumption.

The chief economist of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Laurence Boone, told France Inter radio Wednesday that every month in lockdown would lead to 2.0-percent decline in annual gross domestic product.

"We have production levels dropping on the order of 25 to 30 percent across all of the countries" in the OECD club of industrialised nations, she said.

- A rebound in 2021? -

With none of world's regions set to escape unscathed, the recession could well last longer than some have so far expected.

"In 2021, we can hope for growth similar to that of the past, but there is a fair amount of uncertainty," said Waechter.

One of the big question marks is whether a vaccine can be developed and marketed quickly to avoid another wave of infections, and whether factories will be able to restart production quickly.

"Considering how slow China's recovery is becoming, it is hard to argue that the US and European economies will recover quickly," said Edward Moya, analyst at online forex trading firm OANDA.

"If China is only halfway back up and running, patience will be needed to see how the rest of the world will turn out," he wrote in a note to investors.

The OECD's Boone said forecasting has become very difficult.

"We could partially exit the lockdown, but if the population has little immunity and the rest of the world is the same, we could face a new wave of virus infections and a new period of lockdowns," she said.

 

Global trade will plunge by up to a third in 

2020: WTO

AFP / Fabrice COFFRINIWTO chief Roberto Azevedo gave the warning during a virtual news conference

Global trade could plummet by a third this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, the World Trade Organization said Wednesday, warning the deepest recession "of our lifetimes" could be on the horizon.

"COVID-19 has completely upended the global economy and with it international trade," WTO chief Roberto Azevedo told reporters in a virtual briefing from Geneva.

The global trade body was projecting that "trade in 2020 will fall steeply in every region of the world, and basically across all sectors of the economy," he said.

The WTO acknowledged that there was huge uncertainty around how the economic crisis around the pandemic, which has infected more than 1.4 million people globally and killed nearly 83,000, would unfold.

Stressing that the situation was first and foremost a health crisis, Azevedo warned that "the unavoidable declines in trade and output will have painful consequences for households and businesses, on top of the human suffering caused by the disease itself."

WTO presented two scenarios that it deemed "plausible", depending on how quickly the pandemic was conquered and the measures governments put in place to dampen the blow.

"In an optimistic scenario, our economists see the volume of global merchandise trade falling by 13 percent this year compared to 2019," Azevedo said.

That outlook points to a sharp drop in trade followed by a recovery starting in the second half of 2020.

- 32 percent drop, or more -

"If the pandemic is brought under control relatively soon, and the right policies are in place, trade and output could rebound nearly to their pre-pandemic trajectory as early as 2021, regardless of how steep the initial fall is," Azevedo said.

But he warned that "if the pandemic is not brought under control and governments fail to implement and coordinate effective policy responses, the decline could be 32 percent, or even more."

North America and Asia would be hardest-hit and could see their exports plunge by 40 and 36 percent respectively, while Europe and South America could see declines of more than 30 percent, the WTO said.

"These numbers are ugly," Azevedo acknowledged. "There is no way around that."

The downturn "may well be the deepest economic recession or downturn of our lifetimes", he said, calling on governments to "make the most of all potential drivers of sustainable growth to reverse this situation."

In its main annual forecast, the 164-member WTO pointed out that trade had already been slowing in 2019, before the emergence of the novel coronavirus.

Trade tensions, uncertainty and slowing economic growth weighed on global merchandise trade, which registered a slight decline of 0.1 percent in 2019 after rising 2.9 percent a year earlier.

The dollar value of world merchandise exports fell by three percent to $18.89 trillion, the WTO said.

World commercial services trade fared better last year, with exports in dollar terms rising by two percent to $6.03 trillion, but the expansion was far slower than in 2018, when services trade increased by nine percent, said the WTO.

- Worse that financial crisis -

However, the situation has taken a dramatic turn since COVID-19 first emerged in China late last year.

The WTO said that while the global shock might invite comparisons to the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the situation now was worse.

Governments around the world have taken radical measures to try to halt the spread of the deadly virus, including closing schools and public spaces and asking more than half of humanity to remain at home.

"Restrictions on movement and social distancing to slow the spread of the disease mean that labour supply, transport and travel are today directly affected in ways they were not during the financial crisis," it said.

"Whole sectors of national economies have been shut down, including hotels, restaurants, non-essential retail trade, tourism and significant shares of manufacturing."

Developments remained very uncertain, but WTO said countries could ensure a faster and stronger rebound through international cooperation.

"A turn towards protectionism would introduce new shocks on top of those we are currently enduring," Azevedo said.

"Keeping markets open to international trade and investment would help economies recover more quickly," he said, insisting that "we will see a much faster recovery than if each country goes it alone."

Coronavirus reaches Yanomami people in Amazon

AFP / POOLThe Yanomami people live in remote areas of the Amazon and are known for their vulnerability to foreign diseases

Brazil said Wednesday a first case of the new coronavirus had been detected among the Yanomami people, an Amazon indigenous group known for its remoteness and its vulnerability to foreign diseases.

"Today we confirmed a case (of the virus) among the Yanomami, which is very worrying," Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta told a news conference.

"We have to be triply cautious with (indigenous) communities, especially the ones that have very little contact with the outside world."

The Yanomami patient, a 15-year-old boy, is being treated in the intensive care unit at a hospital in Boa Vista, the capital of the northern state of Roraima, officials said.

Brazil has now confirmed at least seven coronavirus cases among the indigenous population, according to the newspaper Globo.

The first was a 20-year-old woman from the Kokama ethnic group who was confirmed positive a week ago.

Brazil is home to an estimated 800,000 indigenous people from more than 300 ethnic groups.

The Yanomami, who are known for their face paint and intricate piercings, number around 27,000.

Largely isolated from the outside world until the mid-20th century, they were devastated by diseases such as measles and malaria in the 1970s.

Indigenous peoples in the Amazon rainforest are particularly vulnerable to imported diseases, because they have been historically isolated from germs against which much of the world has developed immunity.

Coronavirus reaches Yanomami people in Amazon

Brazil said on Wednesday a first case of the new coronavirus had been detected among the Yanomami people, an Amazon indigenous group known for its remoteness and its vulnerability to foreign diseases.

“Today we confirmed a case (of the virus) among the Yanomami, which is very worrying,” Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta told a news conference.

“We have to be triply cautious with (indigenous) communities, especially the ones that have very little contact with the outside world.”

Huts of a Yanomami tribe, inside the Yanomami territory in Roraima, 
northern Brazil. File photo: AFT

The Yanomami patient, a 15-year-old boy, is being treated in the intensive care unit at a hospital in Boa Vista, the capital of the northern state of Roraima, officials said.

Brazil has now confirmed at least seven coronavirus cases among the indigenous population, according to the newspaper Globo.

The first was a 20-year-old woman from the Kokama ethnic group who was confirmed positive a week ago. Brazil is home to an estimated 800,000 indigenous people from more than 300 ethnic groups.

The Yanomami, who are known for their face paint and intricate piercings, number around 27,000.

Largely isolated from the outside world until the mid-20th century, they were devastated by diseases such as measles and malaria in the 1970s.


https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3079074/coronavirus-latest-us-cases-pass-400000-wto-warns

GOOD NEWS  

Air Canada to rehire 16,500 workers laid off due to pandemic

AFP/File / JOEL SAGETAir Canada says it will rehire furloughed employees under a government relief program

Some 16,500 Air Canada employees who were laid off because of the coronavirus pandemic will be rehired under a government relief package for businesses, the airline said Wednesday.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced during his daily news conference that the program would now be open to companies that suffered a drop of more than 15 percent in their revenues in March, against 30 percent previously.

Air Canada furloughed nearly half of its Canada-based workforce of 36,000 on March 30 after seeing business abruptly dry up by more than 90 percent as country after country imposed travel restrictions and people stopped flying.

The Canadian government stepped in April 1 with the emergency wage subsidy plan designed to help employers keep their workers or bring back ones that were laid off because of the pandemic.

It is retroactive to March 15 and the government will pay 75 percent of hard-hit companies' payrolls through June 6.

Air Canada said that under the "CEWS" relief package it will bring back the people it had furloughed.

"Subject to its adoption into law substantially as announced, Air Canada intends to adopt the CEWS for the benefit of its 36,000 Canadian-based employee workforce," the company said in a statement.

Trudeau also warned Canadians to brace for painful monthly unemployment figures to be released Thursday.

"It's going to be a hard day for the country," he said. "But I know that if we pull together, our economy will come roaring back after this crisis."

More than four million people have applied for emergency aid offered by the government since mid-March, about one fifth of the country's active population.

The figures point to an explosion in the unemployment rate for March from 5.6 percent in February.

Canada on Wednesday had more than 19,000 officially declared cases of coronavirus, and 456 deaths.

Strays feel the bite as pandemic spreads  

AFP / ANGELOS TZORTZINISThe global lockdowns against the coronavirus are tantamount to a death sentence of stray cats and dogs

As coronavirus forces billions of people around the world into lockdown, another sizeable population has also been hard hit -- stray animals.

While pet owners in many countries are still allowed to walk their dogs, thousands of other animals -- the exact numbers are unknown -- are starving and turning feral.

The mass closure of restaurants has also deprived hungry animals of leftover meals, forcing them to take greater risks.

For many, the restrictions are tantamount to a death sentence.

"We are seeing an increase in the numbers of cats in areas where we feed, some appear to have been abandoned, while others have roamed far from their usual spots in search of food," says Cordelia Madden-Kanellopoulou, a co-founder of Nine Lives Greece, a network of volunteers dedicated to reducing the overpopulation of stray cats in Athens and other cities.

According to the municipality, the stray dog population in Athens is put at hundreds while the cats run into the thousands.

"It is a huge worry to us that strays could be exposed to more cruelty and poisoning, being more visible and hungrier now, and thus more likely to trust and approach people," said Madden-Kanellopoulou.

Greek officials over the weekend said an online platform had been created for food donations and veterinary services for strays and pets whose owners are unable to care for them.

"During the lockdown, we make sure that all dogs have enough food so that they don't become aggressive. This week we will also start installing feeders in different areas of the city making sure that dogs and cats are fed regularly," said Serafina Avramidou, city of Athens councillor for animal welfare.

Avramidou said she has also already signed more than 350 permits for volunteers to visit feeding areas without getting fined.

In neighbouring Turkey, authorities in Istanbul distribute around a tonne of food for street cats and dogs every day.

- 'We'll care for your friends' -

"We were taking care of strays even before the coronavirus," Tayfun Koc, an Istanbul municipal feeding worker, told AFP.

"I say this to all our citizens, stay at home, we will take care of our little friends," he said.

AFP / ANGELOS TZORTZINISEuropean authorities are realising that allowances must be made for populations of stray animals

Authorities elsewhere in Europe are gradually realising that allowances must be made for stray populations.

After Spain went into a nationwide lockdown on March 14, Madrid officials closed down 125-hectare Retiro park in the city centre where around 270 cats live in 19 different colonies.

For days, volunteers were not able to enter. City hall authorities eventually allowed them to give food to park gardeners to distribute.

A single volunteer may also enter the park three times a week, for an hour at a time, to check on the health of the cats.

Mercedes Hervas, the president of the Association of Friends of the Cats of Retiro, says this was not enough time to check on them all and look after those in need of medical care.

On March 30, a park employee found dead a female cat that the group had been treating with antibiotics. Hervas predicted other cats would also die.

"You have to go from colony to colony and wait for the cat to come out. Maybe Olympic athletes can do it in one hour, we can't," she says.

Elsewhere in the Balkans, provision is more ad hoc.

In Serbia, where there is no state-organised effort to feed and shelter stray animals, people in several cities and towns have organised help locally.

A similar effort is under way in North Macedonia where NGOs are calling on people to leave food on the street for the estimated 10,000 stray dogs in Skopje.

In Croatia, about 40 animal shelters which had to close their doors for visitors are imploring citizens not to abandon their pets.

In Albania, locked-down citizens say it is impossible to secure permission to walk a dog, let alone feed strays, so people go out in secret.

- 'Death sentence' -

"These measures taken for humans are effectively a death sentence for dogs and cats," says Indrit Osmani who heads the Animal Rescue Albania volunteer group.

AFP / ANGELOS TZORTZINISPets are not entirely safe even at home

In Bulgaria, veterinary clinics ran an information campaign after pets were increasingly found on the street because their owners thought they may transmit the virus.

There was a similar campaign in Beirut, where Lebanese animal rights groups have reported an increase in abandoned pets.

The group, Beirut for the Ethical Treatment of Animals, last week said it had received "countless" calls concerning poisonings across the country, mainly around the capital.

Last month, it said that the number of abandoned pets had "at least tripled in recent weeks because of the panic" caused by the virus.

But in a time of heightened health concerns, pets are not entirely safe even at home.

French veterinarians last week warned owners against attempting to disinfect their dogs and cats with detergent or alcohol gel.

The move came after images online showed dogs whose legs had been burned by disinfectants.

"Soapy water or a dog shampoo works very well", said Christine Debove, regional adviser of the Order of veterinarians for Ile-de-France.

Not only are dogs and cats unable to digest alcohol properly, but these products can also cause respiratory irritation and skin reactions, Debove said.

burs-jph/bsp/spm/je

Coronavirus adds to struggles in City of God favela

GOD HAS ABANDONED THEM

AFP / MAURO PIMENTELA woman in Rio de Janeiro's City of God favela carries a box with donations of basic food supplies distributed by an NGO to people suffering economic hardship during the novel coronavirus in Brazil

There are no good options these days in City of God.

Venture out in this densely populated Rio de Janeiro favela, and residents risk exposing themselves to coronavirus.

Stay in, and many have nothing to eat.

The Brazilian slum rose to fame in 2002, when an acclaimed film of the same name chronicled the violence, crime and stark choices facing young people growing up on its streets.

"If you run, the beast will get you. If you stay, the beast will eat you," went the film's tagline.

It could just as well apply to the era of COVID-19.

AFP / MAURO PIMENTELLike 40 percent of Brazil's labor force, people in favelas tend to work in the informal sector, the kind of jobs that become impossible under the stay-at-home measures adopted to slow the spread of the new coronavirus

Like 40 percent of Brazil's labor force, people in favelas tend to work in the informal sector, the kind of jobs that become impossible under the stay-at-home measures adopted to slow the spread of the new coronavirus.

"A lot of them are self-employed. They style hair, give manicures, collect cans to recycle, guard people's cars, sell things at the beach," says Samantha Messiades, founder of a charitable organization called Ligacao Cultural (Cultural Connection).

"All these people have lost their income. And they urgently need help," she says, wearing a pink face mask as she watches workers hand out food to needy residents in the slum of 37,000 people.

- A shadow of itself -

AFP / MAURO PIMENTELA volunteer loads a van with donations of basic food supplies for residents of the City of God favela -- one-quarter of Rio de Janeiro's residents live in such slums

Rio de Janeiro is a shadow of itself under coronavirus isolation measures. A hush reigns over its usually jam-packed streets, and authorities have closed non-essential businesses, as well as the city's iconic beaches and tourist attractions.

That means hard times for the 1.5 million people who live in favelas -- a quarter of the city's population.

Messiades originally launched her organization to bring music, theater, dance and other cultural opportunities to children in City of God.

But now she has reinvented it as a food pantry to help people get through the coronavirus crisis.

It is supplying food, soap and basic hygiene supplies to 800 families, thanks to donations from churches, associations and private citizens.

"This is very important and valuable to people here," says Monica Oliveira da Silva, a cleaner among those waiting in a closely-packed line, many with babies and young children.

AFP / MAURO PIMENTEL"Stay home and save lives" says this sign in City of God -- a hush reigns over the usually jam-packed streets of Rio de Janeiro

"The poor have no income and no savings. My children aren't working because they can't. They work in transportation. Everyone needs help," says Maria de Fatima Santos, a retiree.

Favela residents are also living in fear of the destruction a big outbreak could bring to their crowded, under-served communities.

On a street outside the community center where workers handed out boxes of food, a banner gives the global death toll and urges: "Stay home and save lives."

City of God has confirmed only one case of the new virus so far, authorities say.

 Singapore migrant workers live in fear as virus hits dorms

AFP / Roslan RAHMANSingapore has quarantined four large dormitory complexes housing tens of thousands of mostly South Asian workers, where more than 200 cases have so far been detected

Migrant workers in Singapore are living in fear following a surge of coronavirus infections in their dormitories where they say cramped and filthy conditions make social distancing impossible.

The city-state, which is battling a worsening outbreak, this week quarantined four large dormitory complexes housing tens of thousands of mostly South Asian workers, where more than 200 cases have so far been detected.

Infections have also been recorded in a handful of other facilities.

One worker from Bangladesh, who lives in a dorm where there are several known infections but has not yet been locked down, told AFP social distancing to halt the spread of the virus was not possible.

"One small room with 12 people living together... how can we make social distance?" the labourer said in English, on the condition of anonymity.

He said hygiene standards were poor and workers were forced to use a communal cooking area and bathroom.

"We know the virus character, how this is spread -- so if this living condition continue I am very worried," he added.

At least one dorm had overflowing toilets and rooms infested with cockroaches, the Straits Times newspaper reported, casting a harsh spotlight on what critics claim is the disgraceful treatment of foreign labourers in wealthy Singapore.

The huge dormitories mostly house construction workers who typically earn about $400 to $500 a month building the city-state's glittering skyscrapers and shopping malls.

A Bangladeshi man in one of the quarantined dormitories said workers were increasingly concerned about the growing number of asymptomatic cases.

"Definitely we all are worried," he told AFP, also speaking anonymously.

"Since last few days, we already got news that there are so many people affected without any symptoms."

- 'Recipe for disaster' -

There are about 280,000 migrant construction workers in Singapore who mostly live in self-contained dorms, with shops and other facilities on-site. They are often located in less desirable parts of the city, meaning they mix little with Singaporeans.

After reports emerged of unsanitary conditions at one of the quarantined dorms, the manpower ministry said it was working to improve the situation.

Caterers are providing meals to workers in lockdown and cleaning services have been increased.

AFP / Roslan RAHMANThere are about 280,000 migrant construction workers in Singapore who mostly live in self-contained dorms

A task force involving government officials, police and the armed forces has also been set up to provide support to foreign workers and dormitory operators.

The manpower ministry said it will "continue to keep a close eye on the dormitory conditions and will intervene proactively to ensure standards".

But Amnesty International warned quarantining workers in close proximity could be a "recipe for disaster".

"Migrant workers living in crowded quarters, without opportunities to self-isolate and protect themselves, are at particular risk of exposure to the virus," said Rachel Chhoa-Howard, Amnesty's Singapore researcher.

Alex Au, vice president of migrant rights group Transient Workers Count Too, called on the government to temporarily house some workers in other locations such as army barracks.

"We fear that if the density of the dorms are not lowered... if the men are not thinned out, infections in many of the dorms will rise," he said.

- 'Wake-up call' -

Singapore has reported more than 1,600 virus cases including six deaths, relatively low by global standards, and has won praise for its handling of the outbreak.

AFP / Roslan RAHMANVirus infections in the migrant worker dorms and the poor conditions have sparked soul-searching in Singapore about the treatment of foreign labourers

But infections are rising sharply and authorities this week introduced tough new curbs. The health ministry on Wednesday reported 142 new cases -- Singapore's biggest daily increase since the outbreak began.

The infections at the dorms and the poor conditions have sparked soul-searching in Singapore about the treatment of foreign labourers, who have played a key role in the city-state's dramatic transformation from a gritty port into an ultra-modern financial hub.

Writing on Facebook, veteran Singapore diplomat Tommy Koh said it should be a "wake-up call to treat our indispensable foreign workers like a first world country should, and not in the disgraceful way in which they are treated now".

The post was flooded with supportive comments, including one that asked: "Is this how we treat the very people who have built our city, our home?"